The Lebanese government has succumbed to the pressure of the people: Prime Minister Hassan Diab and his cabinet resigned on Monday. Protesters in the streets of Beirut are demanding further far-reaching reforms.

Diab’s Lack of Self-Awareness

The Lebanese government resigned on Monday in the aftermath of last week’s devastating explosion and the subsequent mass protests in the capital, Beirut. In a televised address, Diab blamed the widespread corruption in his country for the massive detonation and said that corruption was bigger in the country than the state of Lebanon itself.

The political class was the real tragedy of the Lebanese people. They had fought against the new government with all means to prevent changes, Diab said – and thus he excluded any personal responsibility. According to Diab’s victim narrative, his government had “endured a lot of false accusations”, that left him no choice but to “take a step back” in order to comply with the Lebanese desire for a “state of law, justice and transparency”.

Violence Continues to Spread

During his speech on Monday evening, clashes between demonstrators and security forces in central Beirut had erupted again, similar to those that occurred over the weekend, when demonstrators tried to enter parliament and fought with the security forces. They blamed the corruption and negligence of the government for the disaster. According to official information, one police officer was killed, and more than 200 people were injured.

Several ministers resigned from their posts afterwards. Most recently, Justice Minister Marie-Claude Nadschm and Finance Minister Ghasi Wasni on Monday. The previous week, during a visit to the site of the disaster, Nadschm had already been verbally attacked by protesters. Prior to Najschm and Wasni, Information Minister Manal Abdel Samad and Environment Minister Kattar Demianos had already resigned.

According to government circles, Hassan Diab had desperately tried to keep his cabinet together. He even sought to propose new elections to his cabinet on Monday in order to calm down the precarious situation, even though the next regular election in Lebanon would not have taken place until 2022.

Diab’s government has only been in office since January and after months of uncertainty. He succeeded Saad Hariri, who resigned after mass protests at the end of October, which were primarily due to tax levies.

Hezbollah’s Role and the Status Quo

Diab’s government was supported, inter alia, by Hezbollah, which is loyal to Iran and remains highly influential and powerful in Lebanon. Due to a severe economic crisis and the corona pandemic, large parts of the Lebanese population slipped into poverty during his tenure.

The leading political blocs in parliament must now agree on a successor. It is unclear how long this will take. Hezbollah plays a central role. Hardly any government can be formed against the organisation, which is considered a terrorist group by many foreign states. However, it is questionable whether a mere substitution of personnel can be sufficient to calm the situation, as the demonstrators are demanding far-reaching political reforms.

The International Community Gets Involved

Corresponding demands can also be heard from abroad. The International Monetary Fund seeks to help Lebanon with a rescue package but is demanding political agreement on comprehensive reforms. UN Secretary-General António Guterres also called for political changes. At the same time, he promised long-term support, saying “the United Nations system will continue to help Lebanon in this emergency in every possible way.”

The disaster on August 4, killed around 160 people and injured almost 6,000 in the port of Beirut. Large parts of the Lebanese capital have been devastated. The cause of the disaster is reportedly a fire that detonated 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate. The cargo with the extremely flammable chemical had been stored in a hall at the port for years. Investigations are still underway, however.

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Although once viewed as a sanctuary of democracy and relative stability in the increasingly turbulent Middle East, Lebanon’s past three months have been anything but stable. Nationwide protests cutting across sectarian and political lines brought hundreds of thousands of people to the streets, calling for the overhaul of a corrupt system controlled by the elites. 

Changes Caused By Lebanon’s Mass Protests

The crisis that has ensued since the protests began in mid-October has seen one prime minister, Saad Hariri, step down and after almost two months, and another named in his place. On December 19, the Lebanese Cabinet named Hassan Diab as the country’s new premier, voting him in with a narrow majority. 

Given the country’s religious and sectarian diversity, where slightly less than half of the population is Christian and the remaining Muslims are almost evenly split between Shiites and Sunnis, Lebanon has a quite definitive and unique political structure. It mandates the president be a Christian, speaker of the parliament Shiite and the prime minister Sunni. 

Although he is a Sunni, Diab failed to get the backing of his own community in the prime ministerial vote. Instead, it was the Hezbollah-led Shiite bloc that provided him with the numbers to cross the line with 69 votes, while former PM Hariri’s group abstained. That could brew trouble for the new premier as a disruption in Lebanon’s strictly sectarian power sharing scheme has angered some Sunnis, given the new candidate doesn’t really enjoy much support from them. 

Lebanese Balance Of Power

With the Shiite speaker of the parliament has already been long known as pro-Hezbollah, the designation of a Sunni PM thanks to the Iranian-backed militant group’s blessing suggests the scales are tipping in favor of Tehran as it now has direct influence over two of the three key positions in the Lebanese political system. 

This must be a relief for the Islamic Republic, which has recently faced pressure in its satellite states, including Iraq where protesters even in the Shiite-majority Karbala registered their strong displeasure over Tehran’s overreaching influence in their country’s affairs. The case in Lebanon is no different, where the demonstrators have demanded an end to the current system, of which Hezbollah is an integral part.  

Step Forward For Stability Or More Of The Same?

Although it may be a step forward for political stability in Lebanon, at this point there is nothing to be complacent about. Diab’s appointment has been met with protests, albeit waning in strength. The key demand of the streets since day one has been the replacement of the political establishment, but the new premier is cut from the same cloth of the former ruling class as he previously served as the education minister from 2011-14 under President Michel Suleiman. Therefore, many demonstrated in Sunni-dominated Tripoli and the capital Beirut against his appointment, seeing it as a mere change of faces and continuation of corruption.

This appointment, however, has some proponents, too, as many want to give Diab a chance given his image as an honest man. Moreover, Diab’s promise of forming a government of independent technocrats resonates well with the protesters’ demands, something he emphasized again after being nominated. 

Challenges Ahead

In addition to somewhat pacifying a charged and angry populace, Diab has quite a serious crisis to deal with in the immediate future. Lebanon’s economy is in severely bad shape thanks to stalled growth rates and a massive debt burden, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 140 percent. This massive debt requires payments of $1.5 billion worth of Eurobonds by this March. 

To make matters worse, the Lebanese pound has lost around 30 percent of its value against the US dollar since September, which is further compounded by the country’s habit of running significant trade deficits.

Reforms on the economic front will be the deciding factor which will make or break the new PM, as Lebanese citizens have time and again shown their willingness to flood the streets and hold their leaders accountable when they don’t follow through on their promises. 

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Dramatic events and developments have been unfolding in Lebanon over the past week, with frantic efforts to get the small Mediterranean country of its current political bottleneck. Lebanon has been troubled with crippling popular protests now in their eighth week running. Road blockades and economic collapse loom around every corner.

Since the resignation of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al Hariri on November 4 the resignation of his Cabinet was a prominent demand for protesters. The nation has witnessed mounting tension as well as a number of violent incidents since that time, with many signs reminiscent of the catastrophic Civil War that ravaged Lebanon for 15 years, ending in 1990.

Hariri’s Fall from Saudi and US Grace

Hariri’s downfall came as a result of several factors and considerations as he faced a near-impossible task following his initial re-selection as PM designate. He found himself sandwiched between the US-led rock and the pro-Iranian Resistance hard place; failing to satisfy either of the two main camps or fulfill their preconditions for the formation of a new government, Hariri was forced to withdraw from the race in a dramatic fall from Saudi, French and American grace that could virtually spell the end of the Hariri political dynasty in Lebanon forever. Paradoxically enough, his resignation generated an immediate mixed reaction of jubilation and clashes among Lebanese protesters who included some of his supporters.

What has surprised many observers of the Lebanese political scene over the past few weeks has been the intensive role played by both Russia and Egypt in order to prevent what seemed like Lebanon’s inevitable and fast-moving slide into political vacuum along with the chaos, violence and potential new civil war it would almost definitely entail. Although a tangible amount of such fears is still alive and kicking in the minds of many Lebanese and foreign nationals, the mere breakthrough agreement on a new Prime Minister designate has raised hopes that, at long last, an opening has been made that could lead Lebanon out of the deadlocked political arena, and avert a tragic fall into mayhem and violence that would serve no one except for Lebanon’s enemies.

Who Will Replace Hariri?

A number of replacement candidates put forward by the Lebanese Sunni community were rejected by Lebanon’s political power brokers as well as by some major regional and international governments who still have a say in the Lebanese political life, mainly Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, France and the United States. The streets’ abrupt flare-up against PM designate Hassan Diab and in support of Hariri took place as US special envoy David Hill was concluding his controversial visit to Lebanon. Hill insinuated that Washington is not against Diab’s nomination, but has its own conditions regarding the shape and program of the new government.

New PM’s  Opportunities, Challenges and Platform

White smoke came out of the presidential palace in Baabda, Thursday, as Lebanese President Michel Aoun designated former education minister and professor at the AUB (American University of Beirut) Hassan Diab as the country’s next prime minister. Diab, who has limited political experience as many Lebanese point out, and is believed to have the backing of Hezbollah and its allies, was designated as the next premier after receiving a majority of votes in the Lebanese parliament, defeating the only other contender for the post, US-backed Nawaf Salam.

While this breakthrough could contribute to the diffusion of an explosive political situation in Lebanon, made much worse and more costly by one of the most daunting economic crises in the nation’s modern history, it is most likely not going to be particularly helpful in getting the badly-needed international aid Lebanon has been striving to get at this extremely crucial phase. Foreign donor nations have already threatened to withhold any financial pledges to Lebanon, unless certain political as well as major economic reforms are implemented.

Can Diab Release Lebanon from Intensive Care?

The controversy over a new government expected to be dominated by Hezbollah—which is branded a “terror organization” by the US and Arab Gulf states—will further complicate Lebanon’s efforts and plea for international support. How the new prime minister and his cabinet plan to overcome such high hurdles remains anybody’s wild guess. Last week, the most powerful figure in Lebanon, many argue, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said his party was looking forward to forming a new national unity government. He had opposed Hariri’s resignation, and blamed the political vacuum for exacerbating the country’s economic crisis.

Following parliamentary consultations, the new prime minister Diab stated that he had heard very encouraging and supportive words from Speaker Nabih Barri, as well as the caretaker of prime minister Hariri, regarding a speedy process of government formation. Diab pointed out that the common denominator among all MPs he met and consulted with, was ” the need to get out of the stifling crisis Lebanon is enduring.” Replying to a reporter’s question regarding his political cover, Diab said: “My only cover is that I am an independent person who seeks nothing personal. What we need are independent and specialist ministers. I hope that we shall all put our hands together because Lebanon is currently at the Intensive Care Unit!” Diab concluded. Let’s all hope.

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