When French President Emmanuel Macron visited Beirut on Thursday following the devastating explosion there that killed approximately 137 people, he was mobbed through the city. Residents implored him to help them as they denounced their own leaders. He was the first global leader to visit the city since the tragedy.

The Lebanese People Have Lost Faith in Their Political Leaders

The desperate pleas from Lebanese citizens toward the French President show that this is a country that has truly lost faith in its own political elite. Lebanese security forces fired teargas at demonstrators in Beirut as anger over the nation’s leadership grew following the explosion in the city that laid waste to large parts of the capital on Tuesday. Protesters had gathered outside the Lebanese Parliament, where a small fire was lit and stones were thrown at security forces, according to the Guardian. 

The same thing happened last October, which led to Lebanon’s security forces being condemned in a recent report by Human Rights Watch for using excessive force against demonstrators on several occasions.

Aid and Reform Should Be Linked

Last year’s October demonstrations led to the resignation of Saad al-Hariri, who was prime minister of Lebanon at the time. Lebanese President Michael Aoun has recently launched a probe to investigate whether external interference might have caused the explosion, but his actions are likely to fall upon deaf ears as the explosion in Beirut has led to calls for wider political reform, particularly from Macron, who has said that any aid that comes from France must be tied to political change.

Macron has a unique opportunity to persuade the rest of the international community to pressure Lebanon’s political elite into reforming its system. Following the collapse of the Turkish Ottoman Empire in World War One, Lebanon became a French protectorate until 1943. Therefore, the French Government has a vested interest in ensuring that peace and stability is restored to the former French protectorate.

Macron Has Many advantages in Leading the Effort for Change in Lebanon

France is a leading member of NATO and the United Nations and Macron can use his influence over both institutions to persuade other world leaders that Lebanon is likely to become increasingly vulnerable to Iranian influence if they choose not to help. The Washington Institute discovered that the Iranian Government provides Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah with $100 million per year. As Iran is currently forging closer ties to Russia and Turkey in the Middle East, the French President has a chance to urge his counterparts to not let Lebanon become vulnerable to a power vacuum.

Macron is also one of the few Western leaders who has a somewhat decent relationship with US President Donald Trump. The US’s support will be vital in the future if Lebanon has any hope of reforming its political system. Trump should follow Macron’s lead if he is serious about preventing Moscow, Ankara and Tehran from taking advantage of Lebanon’s vulnerability.

As the Council on Foreign Relations’ Amir Asmar suggests, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were instrumental in defeating ISIS and it is one of the few institutions that Lebanon’s citizens have a positive view of. They were able to beat IS because of US funding, which is why it would be in Trump’s best interest to fund the LAF so that they can prevent Hezbollah from strengthening its grip over Lebanon.

Macron Must Avoid Repeating the Mistakes He Made in Libya

Despite this, Macron’s interventions in Middle Eastern politics have had mixed results so far. Although the French President produced a four-point plan that could have persuaded Iran to end its nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of US sanctions, neither the US nor Iran are likely to agree upon a new deal before the US election in November.

The French President’s desire to end the Libyan war is genuine, but his actions have been rather clumsy. The 2018 Paris summit failed to consult a wide range of actors in the Libyan conflict, which is a mistake Macron should not make in Lebanon should he go down this route.

On the whole, Macron is the only world leader best placed to persuade the international community that they need to support political change in Lebanon, and he was right to suggest that aid needs to be tied to reform. He just needs to remember the lessons he should have learnt from his intervention in Libya to ensure that he is successful in helping the former French protectorate transform its government for the better.

L'articolo Can Macron Persuade Allies to Force Political Change on Lebanon? proviene da InsideOver.

2020 will be regarded as one of the worst years in Lebanese history because of an explosion that happened in the country’s capital, Beirut, on Tuesday.

What Caused the Blast?

According to Lebanese President Michael Aoun, the blast was caused by 2,740 tons of ammonium nitrate stored unsafely in a warehouse.

The explosion killed approximately 137 people and injured about 5,000 others as of the latest reports. Dozens of people are still missing and the incident has triggered a two-week state of emergency.

Ammonium nitrate is used as a fertilizer in agriculture and as an explosive. It had reportedly been stored in the warehouse in the port for six years after it was unloaded from a ship impounded in 2013.

Beirut’s Residents are Angry

There is a sense of anger throughout Beirut. The BBC‘s Lisa Sinjab reports that the same people who protested in the streets last October are angry that their politicians failed to prevent this explosion from happening. It is staggering that this was allowed to happen considering the head of the port and the head of the customs authority both told local media that they had written to the judiciary numerous times asking that the chemical be sold or exported to ensure port safety.

This explosion will have a lasting impact on Lebanon’s psyche, alongside many other events that have damaged the country’s self-confidence. It is a desperate call for things to change in Lebanon.

How Can the International Community Help Lebanon?

Perhaps this is where the international community can play its part. French President Emmanuel Macron said that his country will provide aid to Lebanon if the political elite initiate wide-range reforms, and the Lebanese Government is not in a position to say no because of the state of the economy.

Time suggests that one in three Lebanese citizens are unemployed, the currency has lost 80 percent of its value against the dollar since last fall, and mains electricity is only available for a few hours each day. The lockdown made things worse. A July 28 report showed that almost a million people in greater Beirut do not have money for sufficient food.

Anger at Lebanon’s political elite has been growing for some time. Not long before the explosion in Beirut, Human Rights Watch submitted a report to the UN Human Rights Council in advance of the next periodic review of its human rights situation in January 2021. The report suggests that Lebanon has not made progress on a number of recommendations it accepted following its previous review in 2015.

Lebanon Suffering from Widespread Corruption

The report states that Lebanese security forces have used excessive force on several occasions against demonstrators, especially following the nation’s October 17, 2019 uprising, often with impunity. Furthermore, prosecutions against people exercising their free speech rights have increased rapidly since 2015.

The rest of the report makes for grim reading. Lebanon’s penal code is still being applied to criminalize same-sex relations, and security forces have interfered with human rights events related to gender and sexuality based on spurious “morality” claims.

The nation’s dollar shortage has contributed toward the difficulties Lebanon’s health sector is facing as patients are not being provided with necessary life-saving medical care. This is because of the Government’s failure to provide public and private hospitals with the money it owes them.

The US Has a Part to Play in Lebanon’s Future

As the Council on Foreign Relations‘ Amir Asmar argues, the Lebanese people must yield positive change without embroiling the country into another civil war. Their desire to remove all sectarian considerations from government and policy is necessary for Lebanon to flourish, although it is unlikely to happen. Perhaps the explosion in Beirut could stimulate further demands for change, and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has a role to play here due to the positive view many Lebanese citizens have of this institution.

With US support, the LAF helped defeat Islamic State. The US should have a stake in Lebanon’s future, too, because if they can assist the LAF in any way, then they can prevent Hezbollah and its Shi’ite militia from emerging as the only fighting force in the country.

The explosion in Beirut will have a negative impact on Lebanon’s psyche, but it could also be a moment for positive change. Lebanon’s people need to feel more optimistic about the future, but that will not happen without the aid of external forces. Will the international community heed this nation’s call for help?

L'articolo Beirut Explosion Will Have a Lasting Impact on Lebanon’s Psyche proviene da InsideOver.