One of the most heated elections in Europe so far has ended in Poland, with the country’s National Electoral Commission declaring the incumbent President, Andrzej Duda, as the winner having achieved a vote share of 51.2 percent. It is Poland’s tightest presidential race since the end of communism in 1989.

The turnout for the election was 68.2 percent.

Trzaskowski Failed to Broaden His Appeal

The Civic Coalition’s (KO) candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, failed to muster all the support from the other candidates such as Szymon Hołownia, who came third in the first round of the presidential election thanks to his campaign for ‘modern solidarity.’ This made it more difficult for Trzaskowski to topple his conservative opponent.

Trzaskowski also failed to take advantage of the votes right-wing nationalist Krzysztof Bosak won in the first round of the poll. Even though the KO’s candidate and Bosak share similar economic views, there is no doubt that many of the latter’s supporters ultimately lent their vote to Duda.

Now that Duda’s second term is secure, the Polish President has to ensure that he can heal the divisions that this election has caused. But now that he has secured a mandate for his policies and because of the Law and Justice’s (PiS) majority in Poland’s Parliament, it is unlikely that Duda will build bridges with those who voted for the KO in the second round of the presidential election.

What Duda’s Second Term Means for Poland

This will result in a lack of progress for those hoping to secure more LGBT equality in Poland. Throughout the election, Duda described LGBT rights as an ‘ideology’ more destructive than communism. Furthermore, the country has been called the worst nation in the EU for LGBT rights.

Duda will also proceed with his controversial judicial reforms that caused him to clash with the EU. The Polish President’s reform program involved a supreme court chamber to conduct disciplinary actions against judges. PiS believes that the country’s flawed transition to democracy in 1989 caused the judiciary to be expropriated by a post-communist elite. Meanwhile, those on the left condemn the reforms as an attack on the rule of law.

The Polish President will also position himself closer to the Trump administration (assuming the US President wins a second election) and drift apart from the rest of the EU. This will exacerbate the EU’s divisions as Duda will continue to align himself with anti-EU leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban.

PiS Must Look to the Future

It is clear that the incumbent did not appeal to more liberal voters to secure his election victory, but under Poland’s constitution, a first-term president can only be re-elected once. Looking to the future, this means that although Duda will not contest the 2025 Polish presidential election, PiS, the party he is associated with, must appoint a candidate who can appeal to Poland’s more liberal voters if they want to prevent the next election from being so closely contested.

Duda’s voters tended to be concentrated in smaller towns, villages and older populations, while larger cities and women would vote for Trzaskowski. This election revealed how geographically and demographically divided Poland is. As the country’s more liberal voters expand in size, PiS would do well to drop its opposition to issues such as LGBT rights if it hopes to win the 2025 election with a broader coalition of voters. However, it is unlikely that this will happen by the time of the 2023 parliamentary election with Duda at the helm.

This election proved that PiS cannot continue to appeal to a narrow electoral base anymore and it exposed Poland’s polarized political divisions. Those voters Duda failed to appeal to will decide PiS’s fate over the next five years, which is why he cannot afford to take the electorate for granted anymore.

L'articolo The Consequences of Duda’s Victory in Poland proviene da InsideOver.

Poland’s presidential election this year proved to be the most heated contest Poles have experienced in recent years. Not only has the nation been crippled by the effects of the coronavirus, but the election was also held against the backdrop of widespread flooding. It was also originally scheduled for May 10, but it had to be postponed due to COVID-19.

The final historic turnout stood at 64.51 percent, which shows that there is a growing interest in the country’s democratic process.

PiS Stormed Ahead in the First Round

Out of the eleven candidates who registered to stand in the general election, only two received a clear mandate to participate in a second vote scheduled for July 12th. President Andrzej Duda, the incumbent associated with the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), received 43.5 percent of the vote. He will face Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw. The latter received 30.46 percent of the vote during the first election and he is the candidate for the main opposition party, which call themselves the Civic Coalition (KO).

During the first vote, Duda attempted to rally his voters behind PiS’s social policies, including their stance on LGBT issues, with the incumbent President describing LGBT rights as an “ideology” more destructive than communism and abortion. He also highlighted his high-standing with President Trump.

The US President even endorsed Duda when the latter went to Washington to visit one of his closest allies. “He’s doing a terrific job,” Trump commented.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski concentrated more on COVID-19’s consequences, women’s rights and maintaining a close relationship with the EU.

Duda Had the State Media on His Side

Duda’s first and only victory so far has demonstrated the incumbent President’s ability to manipulate the state media into supporting him. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) criticized the conduct of Duda’s campaign. Its statement read that state broadcaster TVP served “as a campaign tool” for the President, and some of its reporting contained “xenophobic and anti-Semitic undertones.” By referring to Trzaskowski as ‘a threat to Polish values and interests’, it failed in its duty to be impartial.

However, Gazeta Wyborcza reports that TVP suffered a stunning defeat as it failed to prevent Trzaskowski from soaring to second place. According to BBC News, even conservative daily Rzeczpospolita admitted that PiS support has been mobilized to the limit, which means Duda may have to build bridges with KO at some stage.

Holding the presidential election in June worked to KO’s advantage. If the vote had been held in May, the incumbent President would have stood a better chance of winning in the first round as he was riding high in the opinion polls then. If there is one lesson that Duda needs to learn from this election, then it is that he needs to broaden his base of support to win in the future.

Duda Must Broaden His Support to Win

The New Statesman’s Annabelle Chapman argues that the independent candidate Szymon Hołownia, who came a clear third during the first election, could provide Trzaskowski with the largest reserve of additional votes due to his campaign for “modern solidarity.” Trzaskowski could even eat into the support of right-wing nationalist Krzysztof Bosak, who came fourth, as he shares economic views which are similar to Bosak’s. This is despite the fact that many of the latter’s supporters may vote for Duda.

This could result in an extremely close result that will have major implications for Poland. Daniel Gleichgewicht of the New Eastern Europe highlights that a victory for the opposition could lead to a potential paralysis of the state as PiS hold the largest number of seats in Poland’s parliament. The President has the power to veto legislation, and a KO victory could thwart PiS’s parliamentary agenda.

If Duda wants to prevent such an outcome, he needs to broaden his image to win a vaster array of voters, and fast.

L'articolo The Lesson Duda Needs to Learn proviene da InsideOver.

The EU’s existence is being tested on two fronts: following the Conservatives’ resounding victory in last week’s UK general election, Britain is set to leave the bloc on January 31st. But another EU country may also be about to leave without the need for a referendum: Poland.

The Polish Government has recently clashed with the country’s Supreme Court, which has warned politicians that their proposed judicial reforms threaten the primacy of EU law and could be an attempt to gag the judiciary. Poland has already been referred to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) regarding rules for judges.

These reforms would mean that politicians can dismiss judges if they questioned the Government’s judicial reforms. The Law and Justice Party (PiS) also wants judges to be punished for engaging in “political activity.” If the government questions the legitimacy of judges proposed by the National Council of the Judiciary, they could be handed a fine or even dismissed. These proposals are being debated next Thursday.

Whilst the Law and Justice Party argue that these reforms are needed to tackle corruption, the EU has accused them of politicizing the judiciary since they came to power in 2015.

This crisis has been brewing for some time. During his final days as the European Commission’s President, Jean-Claude Juncker said Poland is unlikely to leave the EU. He was asked by a daily Polish newspaper called Rzeczpospolitaon as to whether 2019 might witness a ‘Polexit’, to which he replied: ‘No.’ 

However, the country’s future inside the bloc is uncertain. The Law and Justice Party may take Poland out of the EU at some point for other reasons in any case, as they continue to clash with Brussels over environmental protection and migration as well. If another nation quits the EU at the same time as Britain, the consequences would be substantial.

Poland is one of the largest beneficiaries of EU cash. In 2017, they received $10 billion more than they paid into the bloc’s budget. If they left, the Polish Government would lose access to that cash. Jan Mus, a Polish EU expert based in Warsaw, said this cohesion fund could be used as a means to punish Poland for failing to integrate into the European project.

Equally, Mus also warned that such a move could undermine European integration altogether. This is because the Law and Justice Party enjoys a lot of support among its Eastern European neighbors, and throwing Poland out of the bloc could turn them against Western member states.

Because of the Polish Government’s differences with the EU, a Polexit would make the path towards European integration easier for other member states. Polish proposals to end the European Federation have not been met with enthusiasm by officials in Brussels.

Among other disagreements, PiS opposes the EU’s refugee quota system and has highlighted the need to strengthen external borders. Removing Poland from the bloc would be a significant blow to the Visegrad movement of Eastern European nations that consistently opposes steps towards a federal Europe.

Whilst a Polexit could risk further undermining the European project, keeping Poland in the EU also has its risks. Many Polish politicians are angry that tenders for investments in their country co-financed from EU funds often go to Western businesses, and their non-Polish shareholders profit from it.

If Poland retains its EU membership, this nation will also present a challenge to the European Commission’s new President, Ursula von der Leyen. She is yet to reveal how she intends to deal with this situation. Despite this, she could find she has to negotiate with the Polish Government because she emerged as a compromise candidate in part due to Warsaw’s and Budapest’s opposition to Dutch socialist Frans Timmermans, who is a harsh critic of the Law and Justice Party.

Throwing Poland out of the EU is a huge gamble for Brussels. It could either make it easier for those countries that choose to retain their membership of the bloc to integrate further, or it could act as a precedent for others to leave. From the EU’s perspective, this crisis could not come at a worse time.

L'articolo The Consequences Of Poland’s Legal Battle With The EU proviene da InsideOver.

Outside the Church of the Conversion of St. Paul in Lublin, Malgorzata holds her rosary in her hands. She would have never expected anything except to see her country still under attack. “I won’t stand idle and let these sodomites destroy our values,” avows the eighty-six year old. “I have seen Poland end up under Nazi and Soviet rule, it will not happen again.”

For this reason, she is here with dozens of other people in response to the “evangelical call” of Father Miroslaw Matuszny, at a meeting to pray for the conversion of the “enemies of Christ” and for families so that “children and young people can grow up in a homeland free of totalitarian ideologies, hostile to Christianity,” says the priest.

The reference is to what Jaroslow Kaczynski’s Law and Justice party (PiS) calls “LGBT ideology” a totalitarian view promoted by the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender communities to destroy the core of the nation: the traditional family and the Christian values ​​on which it is founded.

The PiS launched their campaign for the European elections in May, and for the election of the Polish National Assembly on October 13, based on their crusade against LGBT communities. It has proven to be a winning strategy as at the Sejm and the lower house of the parliament, the PiS gained 43.59% of the votes in the latter election. This percentage reached 55.39% in the region of Lublin, the heart of so-called “Poland B”, the poorer and more conservative part of the country.

Here in recent months, prayer meetings, like the one organized by Father Miroslaw, have become increasingly frequent. “The congregation are shown photos of gay pride marches or obscene images that have nothing to do with the LGBT. The priests explain to them that the LGBT want to sexualize children, abuse them, and take them away from their families, trying to scare them,” says Alina Pospischil, a journalist at the Gazeta Wyborcza newspaper in Lublin.

This proselytism has also been condemned by a part of the Church. The long J’accuse by the Dominican priest Ludwik Wisniewski, published in the prestigious Catholic weekly Tygodnik Powszechny, was a talking point in Lublin. In it, Father Ludwik attacks all priests who tolerate or openly support Kaczynski’s policy. It is they, according to the Dominican priest, who are killing Christianity in Poland – starting with Father Tadeusz Rydzyk, a Redemptorist priest who supports the anti-LGBT crusade on his channel Radio Maryja, one of the most popular stations in Poland.

A billboard stands out among Swidnik’s communist tower blocks. In the foreground, two half-naked men, with their backs turned, in a photo that seems to have been taken during a gay pride parade. And then a question: “Czy to jest milosc?”, “Is this love?” On March 26, Swidnik, a south-eastern suburb of Lublin, was the first powiat (district) to declare itself “free of LGBT ideology”, a macabre expression that brings to mind the term “Judenfrei” (“free of Jews”), used by the Nazis while carrying out the Shoah.

With an overwhelming majority of 15 votes out of 18, the powiat’s Council approved a declaration presented by Radoslaw Brzozka. Mr Brzozka is an elected PiS councillor standing against “the radicals who aim to establish a cultural revolution in Poland and who attack freedom of expression, the innocence of children, the authority of the family and the school, as well as the freedom of enterprise.” The latter refers to the story of a printer from Lodz convicted for refusing to print posters for an LGBT group. In the blink of an eye, “free of LGBT ideology” areas have multiplied throughout Poland: more than fifty municipalities, villages and regional assemblies are involved.

Like many in Swidnik, Maciej, a father of two, defends the decision to declare the powiat “free of LGBT ideology”. “They shouldn’t really exist, not even one of them. They are not normal – they are unnatural. Now they have decided they want to teach children to masturbate. It is not right, my wife and I decide the best way to educate our children.”

This is one of the many warped views that have been around since this story started. On February 18, Warsaw’s liberal mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, signed a joint declaration against homophobic discrimination with several LGBT associations. Among the twelve points of the declaration, one in particular, triggered a reaction from the sovereignists – that which stipulated the introduction of a sex education programme in schools, based on the guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO).

The statement approved by the Swidnik powiat states that “the authorities will do everything possible to prevent entry into schools by the politically correct and the depraved, who are seeking the early sexualisation of Polish children according to the so-called WHO standards.” Although it has no legal value, the declaration has given official status to the accusations made against the LGBT.

Now the communities live in fear that one day the “paedophiles”, “sodomites”, or  “deviants” may snatch their children and grandchildren from them, and that is why, during marches for equality in LGBT rights, it is often ordinary people (not just hooligans) who verbally and physically attack the demonstrators.

“First it was the migrants’ turn, now we are the enemy. All for a few more votes in the elections. I thought that after the death of Pawel Adamowicz – progressive mayor of Gdansk, stabbed during a public event in January this year – that things would change. The PiS has instead raised the level of confrontation, they will stop at nothing.”

Bart Staszewski, the gay activist of the Love does Not Exclude association, voices his frustration at length. Bart is one of the most famous faces in the LGBT world in Poland. Originally from Lublin, it was his idea to organize the first two marches for equality in his home city, as a challenge to a conservative society not only to ask for more rights, but also to reiterate that Poland also belongs to them, to the LGBT.

Yet Bart is paying a high price for his activism. Not a day goes by without his social media channels being flooded with insults and threats. The latest one arrived by post, a few days before a march on September 29: “Don’t organize that parade or you’re a dead man.” The rainbow march could literally have been stained red. A few days after the parade it was discovered that among those arrested was also a couple, a man and a woman, stopped shortly before the start of the march. The police found a rudimentary explosive device in the woman’s backpack. Now the pair will have to face charges of attempted mass murder.

“This has been going on for months,” says Bart, “I’m now constantly paranoid. The paranoia of being attacked on the street, phone calls hacked, spied on via Facebook, checked up on by the police. It doesn’t take much to end up in the propaganda machine, it’s scary.”

Suicide among boys belonging to sexual minorities has also increased since the start of the PiS crusade. Like that of Milo Mazurkiewicz, 23, transgender, who ended his life by jumping off a bridge in Warsaw. “There are frequent stories,” continues Bart. “A 15-year-old boy who lives in a village near Lublin called me in tears. He is homosexual, but is afraid to tell anyone and often has suicidal thoughts. There you go, that is what being gay in Poland means today.”

Bart calls it a pogrom-type atmosphere, which was impossible to imagine until recently, especially in this corner of Poland, where the entire Jewish community (about a third of the population of Lublin) was exterminated during the Second World War. It feels like you can still hear the echo of its past coming from the Majdanek concentration camp, on the hills surrounding the city. The fear is that this echo goes unheard.

L'articolo The Polish crusade against “LGBT ideology” proviene da InsideOver.