Intensified relations between Turkey and Iran continue to develop as the two nations recently joined together to launch a series of coordinated artillery barrages and air strikes on Kurdish targets in northern Iraq over the last eleven days, according to Arab News. 

The strikes included assaults on areas located near the Iraqi-Turkish border. The border is of strategic importance to both Tehran and Ankara as Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants remain active there. Other strategic targets that Iran and Turkey plan to target include Yazidi areas near Sinjar on the Iraqi-Syrian border; and areas on the Iraqi-Iranian border, which is where other Iranian Kurdish opposition groups maintain a presence alongside the PKK.

Iran and Turkey Argue Operation is Valid Self-defense

This scenario presents a dilemma for the different alliances of nations that are emerging in the Middle East. Both Turkey and Iran argue that they are engaged in legitimate self-defense against Kurdish groups starting incursions against them from Iraqi Kurdistan.

Ankara quickly blamed the PKK for a string of recent bombings in northern Syria, which is home to many Kurds.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi no doubt feels intimidated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The Iraqi Government, Saudi Arabia and the UAE believe that the strikes are an apparent violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

However, the rest of the world, particularly the US, remains silent on the issue and both Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government remain too weak to do anything about Turkish-Iranian strikes.

Soleimani’s Death Weakened Iran’s Influence

Fortunately, Iran’s influence in Iraq has been weakened by the assassination of its former influential general, Qasem Soleimani, and this was recently confirmed by Israeli journalist and veteran war correspondent, Ron Ben-Yishai. He managed to retrieve this information from Israeli security assessments. The Israeli journalist also believes that Soleimani’s successor, Esmail Ghaani, will struggle to gain the status of his predecessor.

There is no doubt that Iran’s influence in Iraq has been weakened because of Soleimani’s assassination, but the recent Turkish-Iranian strikes should worry the US in particular. The 2003 Iraq War’s purpose was to eliminate Saddam Hussein and turn Iraq into a democratic nation with a free market economy. If Baghdad falls to both Tehran and Ankara, those sacrifices made by American troops during the 2000s would have been for nothing.

US President Donald Trump insists that he wants to end America’s involvement in “pointless wars,” but if both Turkey and Iran continue to violate Iraqi sovereignty, it not only places Baghdad in danger, but all of America’s strategically important allies. This includes Saudi Arabia. As Trump continues to focus inward because of the coronavirus, he still leads a country that has a duty to protect vulnerable allies from the influence of powerful leaders like Rouhani and Erdogan.

Trump Must Continue to Help Iraq

Throughout his entire presidency so far, Trump has made tackling Tehran one of his main priorities, but if Turkey and Iran use these strikes as an opportunity to further advance into Iraq, then that will only result in victory for both Erdogan and Rouhani and embarrass the US.

The US President is unlikely to achieve his original goal of bringing all NATO and US troops home. In the short-term, he may have to increase America’s military presence in Iraq. But there are other actions he can take to strengthen Baghdad, too. The Center for American Progress argues he can recruit Sunni Arabs into Iraq’s security forces, strengthen the US’s cooperation with its NATO allies to cut off the Islamic State’s funding and propaganda, and continue to ensure that the PMF’s influence completely diminishes.

US intervention in Iraq may be unpopular, but until the nation is safe from ISIS, Turkey and Iran, Washington must maintain its relationship with Baghdad and monitor Turkish-Iranian military developments carefully.

L'articolo How Should the West respond to Turkish-Iranian Strikes in Iraq? proviene da InsideOver.

“The dam is not being built to generate electricity, as the government says. It is being built to wipe out all memory of us, our identity.” Rojan (invented name) is not the only one who, teeth clenched and asking to remain anonymous, explains the Turkish State’s real objective to us. In Turkish Kurdistan nearly everyone is afraid to say what they think about the authorities. They are used to arbitrary arrests and threats on the part of law enforcement. It only takes a split second for a Kurd to end up in prison in this part of the world.

“I was imprisoned for a year and a half in 2012 because I was protesting against the dam,” Ridvan tells us. “When I found myself face to face with the judge I asked him whether he thought it was fair that I should be punished for defending a land and a history that belongs to everyone. He told me that it was not, but I was convicted all the same. Throughout the years many activists and regular citizens have been arrested by the police during rallies, until the government decided to prohibit any kind of protest in the area of Hasankeyf. “We did everything possible, however now we can’t even openly express our dissent. All we can do is express our opinion through the press. It is the only way we can be heard.“

From the top of a low dusty hill overlooking Hasankeyf, Ridavan utters three words which evoke scenarios of death: war over water. “The Tigris crosses through Syria and Iraq, this is the reason why the Turkish State wants to control it. Thanks to the dam and in general to the GAP project, it will be able to stop the flow of water to neighbouring countries whenever it wants. It will use the river as a weapon to threaten them.”. The construction of the Ilisu dam has not only provoked reactions from inhabitants in the area: in Iraq also, a network of associations contrasts the realization of the Turkish mammoth project and advocates a fair distribution of water. Their voices, like those of Hasankeyf, fall on deaf ears.

Control of water resources is not the Government’s only objective. The construction of the Ilisu dam and other similar facilities along the border with Syria acts as an actual barrier, thereby limiting cross-border movement by Turkey’s historic enemy: the Pkk. The Workers Party has a strong presence in Turkish Kurdistan and for decades Ankara has used all means available to try and supress it and undermine its consensus amongst the local population. “Terrorist, terrorist,” is the only word we understand as we listen to a man telling us that his friends were arrested overnight for no particular reason. The English translation makes his discourse no less surreal: if you are an activist and you are a Kurd, you must be a terrorist. If you are involved in politics and a Kurd, you must certainly be a Kurd. If you are a mere shepherd, but you are a Kurd, you might be a terrorist, so it’s best to keep an eye on you. In short, if you are a Kurd you must be a terrorist. End of story.

According to the Government one of the reasons why the inhabitants of the Bakur region support the Pkk can be found in the extreme poverty characterizing the area and which the state policies have helped to generate. Moreover, uncertainty on the times of construction of the dam has hindered any form of investment in the territory: “Many had thought of starting a business in Hasankeyf,” explains the owner of a restaurant, “ But they would always back down, not knowing when and if the village was going to be submerged. If they had invested in tourism, we would be rich by now. According to the inhabitants of Hasankeyf, revitalization of the area should have been carried out through the promotion of its historical and cultural heritage as well as the safeguard of the territory and its traditions. However, the Government is planning something quite different. “They want to wipe out our memory and our identity,” many people tell us, with a mixture of resignation and anger in their voice. By submerging 199 villages and not only uprooting their inhabitants but also to changing their style of life, the State hopes to homogenise the population, transforming the Kurds into Turks. “In war it is customary to target monuments and places of historical importance in order to destroy a people and their memory. They are doing the same with Hasankeyf”.

On 8 October the village was evacuated and put off limits to the public. The sounds of the market no longer echo through the streets, the voices of men sitting in cafés no longer alternate with the tingling of teaspoons, there is no more laughter of children running along the river banks ringing through the air, nor the sound of sheep bleating in the countryside. Every morning, roosters crow to wake up a village condemned to everlasting sleep, destined to vanish for ever in order to satisfy the dreams and ambitions of its Sultan.

© Photographs by Fabio Conti

L'articolo Turkey gets ready for war over water proviene da InsideOver.

AL-HOL, Syria – Chain-link fence surrounds the al-Hol camp for ISIS-affiliated families in eastern Syria. The camp is a sprawling tent city with a population much bigger than the eponymous town next to it. It houses families of ISIS fighters in sections for Syrian, Iraqi and foreign citizens, as well as displaced people who were living in ISIS territory.

When Turkey invaded northeast Syria last month, Kurdish-led forces guarding al-Hol reduced their presence there to head to the border and fight. Since then, neither the forces nor the fence can keep the ISIS families inside, according to a Kurdish official responsible for the foreign section of the camp.

“We can’t control them,” Elul Rizgar told InsideOver. “The fence around the camp is weak.” Some ISIS families are escaping al-Hol in the chaos that followed Turkey’s invasion of northeast Syria, including foreigners who still cling to ISIS ideology.

The Al-Hol camp is in the Hasakah province in a desert area near the Iraqi border. The latest UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) for October puts the population at 68,744 people. Some healthcare providers stopped operations in the camp due to the conflict between the SDF and Turkey, but food, water and winter preparation services are continuing, according to the report. In previous months, the camp suffered from contaminated water, dirty bathroom facilities and other poor living conditions.

The residents are divided into Syrian, Iraqi and foreign sections, in part to keep the different nationalities from fighting each other. The majority of the residents are women and children, but some men live in the Iraqi and Syrian sections. Male ISIS fighters are in prisons elsewhere in northeast Syria. Soldiers in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are both Kurds and Arabs staff the camp’s security centres and the checkpoints leading up to it.

In October, Turkey began its long-planned military operation against the Kurdish-led and US-backed SDF that controls most of northeast Syria after defeating ISIS there. Turkey considers the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG) – a Kurdish group that leads the multi-ethnic SDF – to be the

Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militant group in Turkey. Turkey plans a “safe zone” penetrating Syrian territory where it seeks to remove the YPG and also resettle Syrian refugees currently in Turkey, which Kurds say is an attempt at ethnic cleansing.

Turkey, along with its Syrian rebel allies, attacked the SDF after the US announced it would remove its troops from Syria, where they were supporting the SDF against ISIS remnants. The US later sent troops back to Syria.

‘Security situation getting worse’

Faced with fighting a NATO army and receiving unclear support from the US and the Syrian army, SDF and Kurdish Asayesh security forces reduced their presence around al-Hol following the Turkish attack. There were 400 SDF and Asayesh members near al-Hol before the war with Turkey, but now there are only 300, according to Rizgar.

“The security situation has been getting worse since the Turkish invasion,” said Rizgar, sitting in her office near the camp entrance. “The residents have been burning tents and killing each other.”

The weak fencing around the camp is allowing residents to escape, according to Rizgar. “They can cut it and go through,” she said. The escapees make use of the largely barren desert area around al-Hol, and are also assisted by ISIS sleeper cells in the area.

“They escape through smugglers and ISIS sleeper cells outside the camp,” said Rizgar. “They walk, then they go by car.” Numbers on the total number of escapees since the conflict with Turkey vary, but some foreigners have escaped, raising the risk that they’ll return to their home countries and carry out attacks. Mahmoud Kro, a Kurdish official in the camps department in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, which is the autonomous government in SDF territory, said that 120 individuals have escaped al-Hol since the Turkish invasion. “120 people escaped – Syrians, Iraqis and foreigners,” Kro, in Hasakah, told InsideOver via WhatsApp. “Around 40 foreigners of different nationalities.”

A similar number of people tried to escape but were arrested, according to Kro. In late October, the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that German, Turkish and Uzbek ISIS families tried to escape al-Hol, but were arrested. There have been other successful escape attempts since the war with Turkey broke out, according to the SOHR.

Rizgar said that 120 families escaped in the same timeframe, but were arrested in the Hasakah province and returned to the camp. She said others escaped successfully, but that she is unsure of how many total individuals.

Regarding ISIS fighters in Kurdish prisons in Syria, US envoy to Syria James Jeffrey said that more than 100 have escaped since the US withdrawal announcement and Turkey-SDF war.

US President Donald Trump as well as Syrian Kurdish leaders have repeatedly asked European countries to take back their citizens from Syria who are accused of joining ISIS. Few have returned so far, though. Some countries, like Austria, Denmark and Albania have taken back some children of alleged ISIS members, according to the UN report. The UK also took back some children in November.

“Infidels have to have their heads cut”

Two SDF guards watch the fence allowing access to the foreign section of al-Hol, where residents of Pakistani, Russian, Tajik, Dutch and various other nationalities live. There is a small market staffed by Russian women near the entrance. Most of the women wear the black full-body cover that ISIS demands, but some now show their faces. Many ask for their picture not to be taken.

The level of Arabic-language knowledge varies among the foreign residents. Some barely speak it, while others can converse in standard Arabic, which is derived from the classical Arabic used in the Quran. The children here dress as Syrian youth do. Their future is unclear as the offspring of parents whose countries largely do not want them back.

Many of their mothers still share ISIS’ extremist ideology. Aysha Mohammed Amin came from “Turkistan” – the name some Chinese Uighur Muslims use to refer to their homeland– to Syria in 2014 to join ISIS with her husband. She is the mother of two children and arrived in the camp in February from Baghouz – ISIS’ last Syrian stronghold.

Amin said that life under ISIS was “free” from the repression she faced in China.

“The Islamic State gave us freedom for the hijab and to educate our children in a good way, thank Allah,” she told InsideOver in Arabic. “The hijab was forbidden in Turkistan…and we couldn’t read the Quran there.” Muslims in China face considerable repression, and more than a million are currently in internment camps.

Amin’s beliefs go far beyond wearing Islamic clothing and reading the Muslim holy book, however. She said she agreed with ISIS’ brutal punishment of people they deemed to be non-believers. “If they are infidels, they have to have their heads cut,” she said when asked if she witnessed anything bad in ISIS territory.

Many of the women maintain that life under ISIS was good, raising the risk that escapees will continue ISIS activity once they are out. Shugufta Parawir moved from her native Pakistan to ISIS territory in Syria in 2016 to follow her husband. In February, she came to al-Hol by way of Baghouz.

“Women had more respect and had to cover,” she told InsideOver in English on life under ISIS. “In our country, women go out uncovered and exposed.” “Women should only expose themselves to their husbands.” Adding to Kurdish officials’ fears, some residents have a lukewarm view of Turkey. Um Zahra, from the desert Anbar province in Iraq, said she fears both Turkey and the Syrian government taking control of the camp, but that the former would be better. “We fear them both, but Turkey would be better than the (Syrian) regime because the regime would kill us,” she told InsideOver.

In the town of al-Hol next door, some residents fear the glutton of ISIS members so close by. “They’re all ISIS,” Mohammed Qasim, a barber on the town’s main street, told InsideOver. “The camp scares us.”

‘A danger to the whole world’

Kurdish commanders repeatedly said they may need to abandon al-Hol if a war with Turkey came to fruition. Now that they are fighting Turkey, the top SDF commander Mazloum Kobani said that fighting ISIS is a “second priority.” But officials in al-Hol say they are committed to staying and guarding the ISIS-affiliated families as best they can. Rizgar said the families continue indoctrinating children, and that if they aren’t in al-Hol, will carry out attacks elsewhere. “Here there is also terrorism,” said Rizgar on why they continue protecting the camp. “They hit us here or there.” “They’re a danger not just to us, but to the whole world, especially Europe.”

L'articolo ISIS Families Escaping al-Hol Camp as Kurdish-Turkish War Rages On proviene da InsideOver.

Turkey said it was in the process of repatriating foreign ex-Islamic State members and fighters to countries where they were citizens before joining the jihadist group in Syria and Iraq. The Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu recently said Turkey was not a “guest house or hotel” for Islamic State former members and fighters.

Thousands of former Islamic State members are in custody in northern Syria, a predominantly Kurdish area before Turkey’s incursion into the region, after the United States decided to withdraw its troops in early October. But as Turkey advances in its incursion, the Kurdish forces are pushed back from areas they controlled and where thousands of Islamic State ex-members are imprisoned.

Turkey’s recent repatriation wave came after President Erdogan met with President Trump in the White House on Wednesday, November 13. Erdogan said Turkey had thousands of former Islamic State-affiliated individuals in its custody, and that the country was in the process of sending them back to “their countries of origin”.

Two days later, on Friday, November 15, Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said an American Islamic State suspect had been deported by plane to the United States. “Upon the commitment of the United States to issue a travel document, necessary procedures have been initiated to send the foreign terrorist fighter to the United States,” the Turkish Ministry of Interior declared.

Seven other German nationals were deported to Berlin, the ministry also declared, and one Briton to London.

But if the United State has shown support to Turkey’s aim at deporting former Islamic State-affiliated individuals to countries where they were nationals, some countries in Europe have long objected to taking back those individuals. President Trump, who agreed with President Erdogan that Western countries should take back their Islamic State-affiliated citizens, recently said European nations were a “tremendous disappointment” after they refused to bring back those persons.

Turkey’s state-run news agency Anadolu recently reported that several Europeans countries have reiterated their refusal to take back former Islamic State-affiliated nationals now in Turkish custody. Danish, Irish and French citizens were also due to be deported as part of the repatriation process, the agency also reported.

Turkey said it was intent on sending back those prisoners to their countries even if they were stripped of their citizenship. The United States, where other foreign Islamic State ex-members are detained as well, threatened to deliver those prisoners to their countries nevertheless too.

“I said to them, if you don’t take them back, I’m going to drop them right on your border. And you could have fun capturing them again,” President Trump said in a news conference in late October when he announced the killing of the former leading of Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

If citizens are presented at their national soil, the international law requires that they be let in. The 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights stipulates, “Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.”

The Syrian Democratic Forces, who controlled prisons in northern Syria where thousands of ex-Islamic State members are detained, previously said they had about 800 European fighters in their prisons, as well as 700 women and some 1500 children in camps.

Some European countries said they were willing to take back the women and children, in whom they nevertheless see a political and social threat, but categorically refused to repatriate the fighters and male members. The United States proved less reluctant, analysts said, because it has fewer nationals who were involved with Islamic State.

In anticipation of being called upon to forcibly take those individuals back, some European countries revoked their citizenship after cutting diplomatic ties with Syria amid the war. Those prisoners are then left in a political limbo where Syrian institutions are far from being able to bring them to justice and where conflict still lurks.

Many were said to have escaped the prisons after fights between Kurdish and Turkish forces broke in northeast Syria following Turkey’s incursion on October 9.

After cutting diplomatic ties with Syria and revoking many individuals’ citizenship, countries from Europe say they are not obligated to proactively go into Syria to take those persons back. Some fear that even if brought back to Europe, those prisoners won’t face enough individual-based evidence to be convicted for charges of terrorism.

Many were imprisoned merely for something they had posted on social media or because of the presence of their name in Islamic State documentation.

An idea of establishing an international tribunal to try the prisoners had been brought forth by many actors in the hope of resolving the issue. The Syrian Democratic Forces proposed that the international tribunal be held in territory it controls. Yet it isn’t clear under what international law the prisoners could be tried, as there is no international definition of terrorism, for example. (The Kurdish forces in Syria are considered as a terrorist group by Turkey because of ties they have with the PKK)

US officials said the United States rejected suggestions such as asking countries in the region to detain those former Islamic State members or establishing an international tribunal to try them.

“Each country has a responsibility to handle this situation on their own,” Nathan Sales, the director of the U.S. State Department’s counterterrorism bureau, said. “Our view is that it’s not a viable option to ask other countries in the region to import another country’s foreign fighter and pursue prosecution and incarceration there.”

On Thursday, November 14, a day after Erdogan met Trump, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also stressed on coalition-member European countries to take back their citizens who belonged to Islamic State, in a Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS meeting held in Washington.

“Coalition members must take back the thousands of Foreign terrorist fighters in custody and impose accountability for the atrocities they have perpetrated,” Pompeo said in the meeting.

L'articolo No Room at the Turkish Inn for the So-Called Islamic State proviene da InsideOver.

On Tuesday, November 5, Turkey’s Erdogan said the Kurdish militia YPG (People’s Protection Units) had not yet withdrawn from some areas within the Safe Zone that Turkey aims at establishing in northeastern Syria. The Turkish president also stated that US forces were still patrolling the areas alongside Kurdish fighters.

The agreement Turkey reached with the United States earlier in October to establish a cease-fire in areas of conflict, such as Ras al-Ayn, required that YPG fighters should withdraw from the Safe Zone in return of Turkey stopping its offensive.

Yet President Erdogan, who is expected to visit the White House on November 13, said areas in the Safe Zone were “not cleared of terrorists.” “Terrorists have not been taken out of either Tel Rifaat or Manbij,” he said, referring to two Syrian towns near the Turkish borders where he said Kurdish fighters were still present.

The Turkish president also said that YPG fighters were still present in east Ras al-Ayn, a town that should be under Turkish control according to the Sochi agreement as well. Ankara had reached the agreement with Moscow in late October in Sochi, Russia.

Both the United States and Russia previously said YPG fighters had left border areas. Calling into question both countries’ statements, President Erdogan also said on Tuesday that Turkey would only abide by its deals with Russia and the United States if the two countries keep their promises.

“How can we explain America holding patrols with terrorist organizations in this region even though they made the decision to withdraw? This is not our agreement,” he said.

The Safe Zone

The Turkish incursion into Syrian territory in early October draws from Ankara’s goals of establishing a buffer zone in northeastern Syria along its borders. The idea of instituting a “safe zone” in the region is not novel, and Turkish officials have been enunciating the exact terminology as regards the Syrian frontier since 2015 at least.

But in last spring —after Erdogan’s party the AKP lost a number of seats, including the municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul— the Turkish president and his officials doubled on referring to the safe zone. Other actors in the Syrian conflict appeared to turn a deaf ear so far.

“Our wish is to reach an agreement on the safe zone and put it into action as soon as possible. Otherwise, we will have to do what is necessary by ourselves,” Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said in last July.

In 1998, Turkey had reached a similar deal with Syria —the Adana agreement— following a diplomatic crisis and clashes in the Turkish-Syrian borders. The Adana agreement required shutting down PKK paramilitary training camps in northern Syria and gave Turkey the right to intervene within a depth of 6km in Syrian territory along the whole border.

The 10-point agreement of Sochi is analogous to the Adana one, except for its greater proportions. President Erdogan first initiated the Safe Zone project as we know now in the United Nations in late September this year. With a map in hands, he showed a buffer zone that would run 30km deep into Syrian lands and some 480km along the border.

“Operation Peace Spring”

President Erdogan insisted that Turkey’s objective of establishing the buffer zone – also called “Peace Corridor” – was that of humanitarian measures. When proposing his idea in the United Nations, he said Turkey aimed at resettling some 2 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey in towns located within the Safe Zone.

Turkey currently hosts some 3.6 million Syrian refugees, more than any other neighbouring nation (920,000 in Lebanon, 655,000 in Jordan and 229,000 in Iraq). President Erdogan often threatened to “open the gates of Europe” to the refugees if the European Union calls Turkey’s recent military campaign in Syria an invasion.

Moreover, Turkey dubbed its incursion in northeast Syria “Operation Peace Spring”, and President Erdogan, with this approach, sought not only an international approval, but also that of some Turkish voters who have shown increasing resentment against Syrian refugees amid economic difficulties.

On the same Tuesday of November 5, a survey published by Turkish pollster Metropoll showed President Erdogan’s approval among Turks surged during October (the month in which the cross-border incursion was set off after President Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from northeast Syria).

The survey indicated that the Turkish president’s approval rate among the people rose by 3.7 points to 48% (the highest rate for the president since his re-election last year), whereas his disapproval rate fell by 9.3 points to 33.7% (the lowest since 2016, when President Erdogan underwent a failed coup).

A Conflict-torn “Peace Corridor”

But despite the emphasis on the incursion’s humanitarian and peace-related facet, the areas that fall within the buffer zone currently stand as Syria’s most conflicted. Thousands of Kurdish families fled their homes after Turkey advanced in its incursion.

Some of the raids the Turkish forces have carried out were said to have hit civilians.

The YPG militia has long controlled the area and served as an armed wing to the PYG (Democratic Union Party), a Kurdish party that formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with other political factions in 2015 to fight Islamic State in Syria.

Turkey considers both the YPG and PYG terrorist groups because of their ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been in sporadic conflicts with Turkish authorities since 1984.

By displacing hundreds of thousands of Kurds through conflict and resettling Syrian refugees in areas they are not necessarily from, analysts say, Turkey will also remodel the regional demographics in northeast Syria.

The Kurdish forces have controlled the northeastern region of Syria since 2013, when al-Assad’s forces were driven south in fights against Islamic State. The Kurds also controlled areas in the northwest, such as al-Bab, Jarabulus and Afrin, but Turkey seized those areas after a number of attacks in 2016 and 2018.

For Ankara, having a Kurdish autonomous region at close quarters is a substantial threat, as the whole region could quickly constitute a rear base for the PKK.

Al-Assad’s Bitter Victory

Al-Assad’s regime condemned Turkey’s violation of Syrian territory, yet paradoxically benefits from the Sochi agreement insofar as its plan helps his government forces to regain territories conceded to the Kurds during the war.

The Sochi agreement stated that YPG forces should retreat from the Safe Zone and that Turkey would hold control of an area covering Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn (where Turkey said it would resettle 2 million refugees).

For Russia, which has long vouched for al-Assad’s government, the priority is to turn the tide by helping the Syrian government to regain territory in hopes of reconstituting a major regional ally.

Before Turkey’s incursion, the Syrian government only had about 60% of national territories. Regaining the areas the Kurds held can constitute up to 75% of Syrian land.

As both Turkey and al-Assad’s regime engage in a race to seize territory pushing back Kurdish forces, the Kurds’ aspirations to form an autonomous Kurdistan after the fall of Islamic State seem to be trailing off.

L'articolo Behind Turkey’s Obsession With Syria’s Safe Zone proviene da InsideOver.

(Damascus) Things are moving fast in Syria’s Idlib and Hama countryside, leading towards a final military showdown and a possible long-anticipated all-out war between the Syrian army backed by Russian aerial support on the one hand, and Islamic militant groups lead by the outlawed Al Nusra terrorist organisation and other Turkish-backed groups on the other.

The Syrian army has amassed some of its elite forces in the area, having already commenced a fierce bombardment and air raids against militants strongholds, inflicting heavy losses among terrorists and recapturing some villages in the hills and northern rural areas of the town of Hama and advanced into parts of the Idlib governorate where an estimated 70 thousand hardline militants have been bracing themselves for the decisive battle that will shape Syria’s fate in the war against terror.

The two major allies of Syria in its 8-year conflict, namely Iran and Russia, have had different approaches to solving the ultra-complicated situation in Idlib in particular. Putin’s Russia has kept open lines with Erdogan’s Turkey, with the Turkish borders being just a stone’s throw away from Idlib, Turkish forces and observation posts are scattered all over the area. Iran has always maintained a more decisive military operation in order to uproot terrorists and Islamic fanatic groups in the area.

Whilst Russia seemed to have the upper hand in averting a military confrontation that could develop into an all-out war with undesirable consequences, this time round, and following the failure of the last round of talks in Astana a few weeks ago, Iran’s approach seems to have prevailed, and a military confrontation is already underway around Idlib and Hama, with the Syrian army seemings more than ever before to be determined to end the presence of Al Nusra and other terrorist organisations in Syria, once and for all. The possibility of a clash with invading Turkish forces, albeit unwanted, remains a reasonable probability. Turkey occupies or indirectly controls large areas within Syria along the borders between Afrin and Jarablus.

Russia, however, seems to have lost faith in Erdogan’s promises and commitments under the Sochi agreement with Putin to help dismantle hardline groups in and around Idlib, and empty the intended demilitarized buffer zone there of heavy weapons. The deadline for that has passed, and Erdogan seems to have faltered on his pledges to Putin. To add fuel to an already raging fire, terrorist groups in the area have launched several mortar and rocket attacks both against civilians in neighbouring towns and villages in recent weeks, and against Syrian army positions as well.

The response was quick and devastating, with the overwhelming firepower of the Syrian and Russian air and land bombardment of fortifications, ammunition dumps and terrorist camps in the area. The scene seems to be set now for a major advance and a final showdown between the warring parties. The only consideration deterring an all-out onslaught is the densely populated city of Idlib and the massive humanitarian cost such a major battle would almost definitely inflict.

With the situation east of the Euphrates river seemingly put on a back burner for the time being at least, and Kurdish militia leaders who control vast sways of land in that strategic part of Syria, dampening down their heated rhetoric regarding separation from Damascus, all eyes are now focused on events in and around Hama and Idlib.

The mentor of Kurdish hardliners Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey has called on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to pursue solutions in Syria other than through conflict. Ocalan, who has been imprisoned in Turkey for more than 20 years, also called on the SDF to take Turkish sensitivities in Syria into consideration, relayed in a statement read by his lawyers who met him for the first time in 8 years.

“We believe that, within the scope of the SDF, problems in Syria should be solved by avoiding a culture of conflict, with constitutional assurances outlined within the framework of Syria’s territorial integrity,” the statement by Ocalan and three other PKK leaders said. The SDF is spearheaded by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) fighters, and backed by the United States.

At the time of this article’s writing, both the Syrian army and its opponents in Idlib, Hama and parts of the Aleppo countryside are deploying massive forces and fire power in the area, with rockets and artillery shells raining down on terrorist strongholds and positions day and night. The unabated bombardment, coupled with both Russian and Syrian air raids against major fortified targets around Idlib is set to continue or even expand in the coming days and weeks.

It is difficult, almost unimaginable, that it might be possible to silence the guns now that dialogue has ended between the hardline militant groups with conflicting affiliation to the east and west. This being the case, Idlib is set be the setting for a Syrian Battles like none we have seen before.

L'articolo Syria: Has Iran Won Over Russia in Hama and Idlib? proviene da InsideOver.

(Damascus) Turkish forces are spread over large sections of land in the bordering areas of northwestern Syria, but have been evacuating from some of their positions, including two of their main observation posts within the rebel-controlled countryside of Idlib and Hama, where the Syrian army has launched a large-scale military operation targeting Al Nusra terrorists and other militant groups backed by Turkey and Qatar.

The sudden Turkish pullout come in the wake of a recent attack targeting one of their bases located close to observation post number 10, south of Idlib and northwest of Hama, in which three Turkish officers were killed and several other soldiers injured less than a week ago. Turkey immediately sought Russian mediation for talks with the Syrian army in order to evacuated their injured soldiers. Four Turkish military helicopters covered by F16 fighter jets were filmed evacuating the victims of the mortar attack.

Having evacuated the base that came under attack, another convoy of Turkish Military trucks and personnel carriers were spotted last night withdrawing from another post in the area. The attack represents a major military operation by the Syrian army, following attacks and shelling by militant groups against army positions. Christian villages in northeastern Hama province were also attacked, resulting in the death and injury of scores of civilians and a number of soldiers.

The Syrian army has made significant advances over the past couple of days, liberating the two strategic towns of Kafr Nabooda and Al Madeek Castle in northeastern Hama, and is quickly moving towards the major strongholds of militant militias particularly the so-called rebel group Jaish Al Izza in the towns of Al Latamneh, Al Habeet and Kafr Zeita. Turkish, Saudi and Qatari-backed militias and terrorist organisations operate and control much of these areas that form parts of the volatile countryside of Idlib, Hama and Aleppo.

Turkey finds itself in an extremely difficult position following the last session of talks in Astana between representatives of various rebel groups and the Syrian government. Russia has been left exasperated by Ankara’s failure to honour its pledges and commitments to Moscow during the last summit between presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan last September. The ensuing Idlib Declaration that was announced in a joint press conference by the two leaders, in which Turkey pledges to dismantle terrorist groups in and around Idlib within an agreed time frame has also failed to be achieved, resulting in further discontent.

Ankara has failed to meet these promises, and recent terrorist attacks launched from that specific area against army and civilian targets, have added insult to Erdogan’s injuries. The fact that Turkey might have little or even no control over some of Saudi-backed terror groups, particularly the outlawed Al Nusra Front, make a major military operation lead by Syria and its allies to recapture Idlib and other areas under rebel control since 2014, an inevitable development.

The area east of the Euphrates river is under almost total control of the US-backed Kurdish SDF, considered a terrorist organisation and extension of PKK by Ankara. The territory stretches along the Syrian-Turkish northern border and comprises large areas of Syria’s oil and gas fields.

Ankara has backed the 25,000 strong so-called Free Syrian Army whose rebels, albeit with direct Turkish military involvement, ousted Kurdish forces including the US-adopted SDF from Afrin in March 2018. The encounter displaced hundreds of thousands of Kurdish civilians from the city and its suburbs in the northwestern Aleppo countryside, close to the borders with Turkey that span over 930 kilometers.

Despite conflicting interests and goals, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and others have supported ISIS, Al Nusra (the Syrian affiliate of al-Qaeda) and other terrorist and Islamic fanatic groups operating in Syria.

With ISIS having been largely uprooted (some say transferred by its operators) in Syria, all eyes are now focused on Al Nusra and similar hardline militias, including the Turkish-backed Turkistan Army (mainly containing terrorists of Turkish origins). There are ongoing battles in the mountains of Latakia along the borders with Turkey, as well as the fierce fighting and major operations being waged in the Idlib and Hama rural towns and villages. The outcome of these battles, expected to culminate in a final large battle in Idlib unless a last-minute miracle occurs, shall decide the destiny of the war against terror, which has ravished Syria and threatened the whole region and beyond, having been most difficult and tragic years in Syrian history.

Wherever one looks, one immediately realizes that without Turkey’s involvement, it would have been almost impossible to smuggle tens of thousands of terrorists and Islamic fanatics from all over the world (84 countries according to some reserved estimates) across the Turkish borders into Syria.

Unless Turkey pulls out its invading troops from Syria, attacks against its soldiers are expected to be mounted by anti-Turkish armed groups, despite strenuous efforts to avert any direct clash between the two armies. Turkish forces have crossed the borders and launched operations under various pretexts and names, the last of which was Operation Olive Branch in March 2018. Turkish control in Syria seems to crumbling and Erdogan’s “Olives” have been crushed in Idlib, not too far away from where they came.

L'articolo Under Fire, Turkey Evacuate Posts in Syria proviene da InsideOver.