Before US President Donald Trump tore apart his predecessor’s Iran Deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran, the mean average rate of recovery across all of Iran’s oil fields was 5.5 percent. According to Oil Price, it has now dropped to 4.5 percent following the end of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Enormous Economic Pressure on Iran

The Iranian Government is under pressure to boost economic activity again following Trump’s sanctions. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently disqualified most of the reformist candidates standing in his country’s parliamentary elections on February 21, in a bid to improve support for his regime. This is because he knows that US sanctions have upset the Iranian economy and could lead to a surge in support for reformists. This would weaken Khamenei’s grip, too. Therefore, the timing of the government’s latest announcement is no coincidence.

Iran’s Plan to Boost its Energy Industry

Iran’s Petroleum Minister Bijan Zanganeh declared he is awarding a $1.3 billion contract to improve oil recovery at two onshore oil fields in Khuzestan to Iran’s main infrastructure company, MAPNA Group. The Government plans to increase its own mean average recovery rate to 25 percent within the next three years.

There are many ways that this plan could work. The Islamic Republic has access to the oil and engineering expertise of China and Russia, two nations which have friendly relations with Iran and did not follow Trump’s lead in reimposing sanctions on Tehran.

Siemens also has a good relationship with MAPNA and recently signed an agreement to manufacture F class gas turbines in the country. If the MAPNA Group succeeds in boosting Iran’s oil recovery, it will be a devastating blow to the US President’s strategy for the country, which was also damaged by the Senate’s triumphant bid to restrict Trump’s war powers.

Rouhani: Tehran is in a ‘Better Situation’ Than Last Month

At a press conference last Sunday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani mocked the US President’s bid to apply maximum pressure on Iran. Though he acknowledged that Trump does not want war with his nation, Rouhani said that Tehran is in a “better situation” than it was last month. Furthermore, Rouhani stated that he is aware that declaring war on Iran would jeopardize the Republicans’ chances of winning the 2020 election.

Trump has few options left to him to apply maximum pressure on Iran and his weakness on this issue could be something that plays into his opponents’ hands, especially if Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg win the Democratic nomination. Both candidates have foreign policy knowledge and experience that matches Trump’s.

Despite this, Trump has succeeded in scrapping the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and he ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani last month.

Time for Iran and US to Take Macron’s Deal?

However, the time has come for both the US President and Rouhani to consider the option of an expanded deal outlined by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron has working relationships with both leaders. In September 2017, he raised the possibility of expanding the Iran Deal to incorporate Iran’s ballistic missile program. He also produced a four-point document that would ensure the US lifts all of its sanctions against Tehran. The text stated that both sides would have to comply with the agreement and the Islamic Republic would have to end its destablization activities in the Middle East.

It is an ambitious plan and if Rouhani and Trump can agree on a precondition for their meeting, like the partial lifting of US sanctions, it could be a success for both sides, especially for an American President who is facing the polls this year.

Trump claims to be a man who understands the “art of the deal.” But at some point he must sit down with his Iranian counterpart and thrash out a new agreement if he wants to prove that true.

L'articolo How an Oil Recovery Could Shatter Trump’s Iran Strategy proviene da InsideOver.

When he became the Republican candidate for the 2016 Presidential Election over four years ago, Donald Trump promised to ensure that American trade would not be disadvantaged by other countries. He has succeeded in delivering on his promise so far to a certain extent.

Although some critics say there is little substance behind China and America ending their trade war by signing Phase One of their trade agreement, Trump can still claim an achievement heading into the 2020 Presidential Election.

The new deal slashes tariffs on $120 billion worth of products, but most of the steeper duties – which affect another $360 billion of Chinese goods and more than $100 billion worth of US exports – remain.

In another victory for Trump before this year’s election, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stated that his chamber could approve of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) at the end of this week.

These trade deals represent substantial achievements for a President committed to fairer trade for the US, and they can provide the GOP with plenty of ammunition for this year’s election.

Nonetheless, there is one crucial trading partner that Trump has failed to reach an agreement with, and that is the EU. In August, Trump hinted that the US will be able to reach a fair trade deal with the EU without imposing proposed tariffs on car imports. He also said he planned on visiting Germany to discuss a trade pact with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel said herself she wants trade discussions to be concluded ‘as quickly as possible.’

But the escalating Iranian crisis could now become the latest stumbling block in Trump’s bid to reach a trade pact with Brussels. Washington has threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on European automobile imports if Britain, France and Germany do not formally accuse Tehran of breaking the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

This is despite the fact that the three nations triggered a dispute mechanism under the agreement on Tuesday, accusing Iran of violating its terms. This could lead to the reinstatement of UN sanctions lifted under the pact.

Iran has now become a bargaining chip for the Trump administration. According to the Washington Post, he wants to use Tehran to receive better terms for Washington within the US-European trade relationship, not to shift European foreign policy.

This is a huge gamble for the President. He has a limited timeframe to reach an agreement with the EU and if London, Paris and Berlin all refuse to shift their positions on the Iran Deal, despite being imposed with a fresh round of tariffs, both sides will only prolong their current stalemate. It will be a devastating double blow for the Trump administration’s foreign policy.

Even if he succeeded in using the threat of tariffs to force those three European nations to support Washington’s position on Tehran, both the US and the EU have failed to make any progress towards a trade pact or tariff reductions. In October, the Trump administration planned to introduce duties of 25 percent for agricultural products like French wines in response to EU subsidies for Airbus.

There is still time for Brussels and Washington to compromise on trade and for European nations to be persuaded to support Trump’s position on Iran. Perhaps Tehran is the ‘trump card’ the President needs to win his trade war with the EU and persuade Europe’s three most powerful countries to support his proposal to renegotiate the Iran Deal.

But Trump must use what time he has left wisely to reach an accord with his European allies on these two crucial issues, otherwise, his opponents will go into the 2020 election claiming he has alienated America’s closest partners. The consequences of the President’s latest threat are yet to become apparent.

L'articolo How Iran Could Affect Trump’s Fairer Trade Pledge in 2020 proviene da InsideOver.

Since US President Donald Trump assumed office, he has made it his mission to be a self-proclaimed dealmaker. In his words, America would have “only the best deals” under his administration. Consequently, Washington has been at odds with new foes and old alike as Trump has forced himself onto the bargaining table. On issues ranging from trade to nuclear arms, he’s managed rope Iran, North Korea, China, Japan, France, and even Canada into renegotiation discussions, even on issues that were settled with the outgoing Obama administration.

Politically speaking, two of those countries stand out from the rest: Iran and North Korea. For decades, both countries have been avowed enemies of the U.S., and Western society to a broader extent. When President Barack Obama left office, his Secretary of State, John Kerry, had just finalized the Iran nuclear deal. Known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, it provided a framework which coerced Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions in lieu of the removal of sanctions.

And by all accounts it was working. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in September 2017 that Iran was in full compliance with the agreement even as Trump insisted that it was not upholding its end of the deal. Facts notwithstanding, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal with an executive order.

Trump’s strategy appears to be leading the U.S. to a confrontation with Iran that could rival anything we’ve seen between the two since the 1980s. The decade following the Iran-Iraq War was particularly tumultuous and included a number of smaller attacks initiated by both sides.

This month, the Pentagon an U.S. Central Command made the decision to deploy a carrier strike group to the Middle East. The Pentagon obtained aerial footage depicted missiles loaded onto Iranian boats. That alone would be worrisome for American and her allies, but it also coincided with the destruction of four tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates on May 12, attacks that Tehran has vehemently denied. Thus far, there has been no evidence of its involvement although investigations have yet to begin.

Interestingly, the spy photograph has not been released by American intelligence, leading many to question its authenticity. Despite this, the Trump administration has consistently labeled Iran as a rising threat that could launch attacks against American troops in region, specifically those fighting in Syria and Iraq.

National Security Adviser John Bolton is thought to be the architect behind the recent “rise” of Iran and its alleged aggressive moves in the Persian Gulf. Many might recall that four years ago, Bolton penned a passionate piece for The New York Times entitled, “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran.” At that point in time, Obama was pushing negotiations forward with Tehran, however Bolton still wanted a preemptive war.

As noted in Foreign Policy, Bolton’s strategy appears directly lifted from the one he used to successfully convince President George W. Bush to invade Iraq over a decade ago. Although weapons of mass destruction were never discovered, the war culminated in the loss of thousands of civilians and troops, ultimately setting the stage for the rise of Daesh. Although invasion plans have yet to be drawn up (to our knowledge), there’s no mistaking that the head of Trump’s foreign policy clearly desires an armed conflict of some level.

He’s not alone, either. The U.S. Centcom commander, General Kenneth McKenzie, spoke forcefully about the the dangers of an empowered Iran.

“The long-term, enduring, most significant threat to stability in the Central Command area of operations is Iran,” McKenzie said.

Despite all this, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that there will be no war.

“We don’t seek a war, and they don’t either. They know it’s not in their interests,” Khamenei stated.

If a war with Iran doesn’t materialize, Bolton might be satisfied with heightened North Korean hostilities. The U.S. took the unusual step of seizing a cargo ship leaving the Southeast Asian peninsula. It was loaded with coal, a manifest in violation of U.S. sanctions. Unlike his predecessor and opposite from his strategy on Iran, Trump began his tenure with opening dialogue with Kim Jong Un. Instead of tearing up a deal, he reached out to strike one. After leaving empty handed on two occasions, Trump has defaulted back to restoring sanctions.

In retaliation, Kim resumed missile test launches that had been halted for a couple years.

The conflicts between both Iran and North Korea will likely continue to simmer until the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and that is likely by design. Even though Trump privately has said he doesn’t want war, at least on member of his cabinet does. Bolton might be pulling the strings to set up Trump for a successful reelection bid. Wartime presidents have historically been elected every time. A fresh war beginning so soon before the election season begins would give rally more supporters to his cause and also would distract the American voter from the recent Mueller Report.

L'articolo Trump Courting War with North Korea and Iran proviene da InsideOver.