After more than twelve months, Israel’s Knesset has sworn in its new government with 73 of 120 votes in favor. It will first be led by Benjamin Netanyahu for 18 months before Benny Gantz will replace him.

Introducing the Massive New Cabinet

Before the vote, Netanyahu presented his new cabinet, which, with 36 ministers, constitutes the largest in the country’s history. The reason for the bloated government is the problematic government negotiations between Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’ Blue and White, during which all sides sought to secure as many offices as possible. So much so that the personal details for the cabinet had recently delayed the government’s inauguration.

“The people seek a unified government, and that’s what the people get today,” Netanyahu said at the beginning of the parliamentary session. In addition to Likud, Blue and White, and partners from the religious and fundamentalist camp, the HaAvoda Labor Party will also be part of the new government. These compromises, Netanyahu continued, were inevitable since another election would have been devastating for the country. Gantz, meanwhile, stated during his speech in the Knesset that the days when governments represented only half of the population were over and that the country had opted for unity, which was precisely the new path that was now being taken.

The New Government’s Top Priorities

One of the main priorities of the new government will be the implementation of President Trump’s proposed Middle East peace plan – which provides for an independent Palestinian state – but also for Israel to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank.  It was time to apply Israeli law and open another glorious chapter in the history of Zionism, Netanyahu said regarding the government’s vision. However, how the peace process will proceed is more open than ever after Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas ceased all relations with Israel and the United States on Wednesday.

In three parliamentary elections since April, 2019, there had been no clear result for a political camp, also because Gantz previously rejected a coalition with Netanyahu unequivocally. Two weeks ago, however, against the background of the COVID-19 crisis and the effects on Israel, Netanyahu and Gantz finally agreed on a unity government.

The Schedule of Leadership

Netanyahu will initially remain prime minister, while Gantz will initially become minister of defence. Gabi Ashkenazi (Blue and White) becomes foreign minister, and the previous foreign minister Israel Katz (Likud) becomes finance minister in the new cabinet. Gantz’s previous office, President of the Knesset, will be conducted out by Yariv Levin (Likud).

Since Netanyahu’s power bloc consists of several smaller parties, he was only able to award a limited number of cabinet ministries to senior Likud representatives. To work around this problem and to reassure angry party members, Netanyahu introduced several new ministries. Including one for community development, one for settlement matters and one for higher education and water resources.

Naturally, these new ministries sparked criticism from the opposition. The prospective opposition leader Yair Lapid said that the artificial creation of offices had caused a loss of “trust in the Israeli public”. Besides, COVID-19 was an excuse for Netanyahu and his “corrupt party.” Israel’s emergency government was nothing more than “the largest and most wasteful in the country’s history,” Lapid concluded. Jesch has reason to be frustrated. His party was Yesh Atid had been an ally of Blue and White until Gantz recanted his promise and agreed with Netanyahu.

Netanyahu himself has been at the head of the government of Israel for longer than any other politician. He was head of government for the first time in 1996 and has been in office for three consecutive terms since 2009. However, at the end of May, Netanyahu will have to answer to the court for allegations of – inter alia – corruption and fraud. In the event of a guilty verdict, the government would thus end early. However, the latter is currently not to be expected, since Netanyahu’s lawyers are likely to ensure that the process is protracted for the time being.

L'articolo Israel Has Sworn in its New Government proviene da InsideOver.

The coronavirus situation in Israel is getting worse. At the time of writing, there are 210 confirmed cases in the country and 40,000 are being held in home quarantine. There have been no deaths so far.

Could Coronavirus be the Surprise Solution to Israel’s Political Deadlock?

An unintended consequence of the global pandemic could be the way it affects Israel’s current political deadlock. The country had two inconclusive elections last year. The country saw a tug-of-war between two factions: a nationalist-religious coalition under previous prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a politically diverse alliance under Benny Gantz, a previous general chief of staff in the IDF who had never previously run for office.

A third election on March 2 resulted in Netanyahu’s Likud Party missing just one seat to form a government. Netanyahu was at first optimistic, however a number of parties have since lent their support to Gantz and conditionally given him the seats needed. He has been given six weeks by the president to form a coalition.

Pandemic Highlights Urgency for Israel to Perform Government Basics Like Passing a Budget

Meanwhile, Israel is in a dangerous predicament. The country has a caretaker government, which cannot pass budgets, meaning the country cannot move as fast as it possibly could to counter the virus. Netanyahu has leapt on the opportunity presented. He has called for a six-month emergency government or, alternatively, for Gantz to form a longer-term four-year unity administration with him, and Netanyahu would lead the country for two years.

Furthermore, any postponement is good news for Netanyahu, who has served as a caretaker leader since late 2018. If the situation worsens, the current government will be left with no choice but to approve Netanyahu’s suggestion and form an emergency government.

This would disrupt and could potentially end Gantz’s precarious lead over his rival. By allowing Netanyahu to preside over the crisis, Netanyahu may also earn enough goodwill to secure another term.

Gantz’s Next Move

Regardless, the next thing will be for Gantz to try and establish his coalition. There is scope for the current emergency to help him as well, if politicians can be convinced to lend their support to quickly resolve the pandemic instead of vying over policy in the interests of their own parties.

It won’t be easy. There is not much that unites the prospective coalition. The parties supporting Gantz run the gamut from far-right to far-left.

They include the right-wing nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party and the mostly Arab Joint List parties. The head of Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Lieberman, has very hostile relations with the Joint List, a fairly influential party, with 15 seats. The Joint List on the other hand has insisted that it wont seat in any government with Lieberman. Lieberman supports transfer of Arab settlements near the Green Line into a future Palestine state.

It indicates the strangeness of the current political moment that such an alliance is even in discussion. The Joint List, for their part, insisted it won’t sit on any government with Lieberman and, prior to the election. Gantz himself ruled out the possibility of allying with them. In the end, however, these parties may judge that the most important thing is to push Netanyahu out.

Gantz has been given six weeks to form the government: a surprise reprieve. However, the almost intractable differences between potential coalition partners makes success unlikely. It is for this reason that Netanyahu is fortunate that the crisis has emerged when it has. It could bring him at least another six months.

L'articolo How the Coronavirus Crisis Could Allow Netanyahu to Hold on to Power proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli politics remain in flux. After the Israeli election committee released the official result of the general election, it is evident that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has again missed a governable majority. In addition, Netanyahu continues to face legal trouble.

Israel’s Latest Deadlocked Election

Israel’s most recent parliamentary election took place on March 2. On March 10, Israel’s central electoral committee released the official result, and with amplification of Israel’s government and Prime Minister Netanyahu, in particular. His conservative Likud party obtained the most seats in the Knesset with 36 of 120 seats, as the election committee confirmed. However, the right-religious camp around the Likud failed with 58 seats combined with the necessary majority of 61. The Blue and White party of ex-military chief Benny Gantz obtained 33 seats and the center-left camp, thus a total of 55 seats. The third-strongest force in parliament was the United Arab List with 15 mandates. Former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman received seven mandates with his Israel Beitenu party and could thus become the decisive man in the question of government formation.

High Turnout Couldn’t Turn the Tide

The turnout was around 71.5 percent, and thus higher than in the two previous elections. In April 2019, it was a good 68 percent, in September just under 70 percent. Nevertheless, the political stalemate after the third election within a year has not changed. On Wednesday, the official results were handed over to Israeli President Reuven Rivlin, who now has seven days to instruct a candidate to form a government. For this purpose, Rivlin seeks to meet with representatives of the individual political groups this Sunday.

This is where the real issues for Netanyahu begin. If Gantz were to be proposed by Lieberman and the Arab List in conversation with Rivlin, the president could then instruct Gantz to form a government, even though his party only came second and behind Netanyahu in the election. In the past few days, Gantz has already consulted both Lieberman and representatives of the United Arab List about a possible coalition. This scenario is, therefore, a valid option in Israel and would finally create a hoped-for government majority. It remains to be seen; however, how stable a coalition between the three parties can become.

Netanyahu’s Mounting Troubles

The potential end as Prime Minister is not the only problem for Netanyahu these days. A court in Jerusalem rejected his request to postpone the corruption process against him. There were insufficient grounds for postponement, the court ruled. The hearing scheduled for March 17 is, therefore, “reserved for reading the charges,” but Netanyahu’s response or defense is not necessary at this stage of the trial.

In a letter to the court, the Prime Minister’s lawyers asked for the trial to be postponed by 45 days. They argued that they had “not yet received all the documents related to the investigation.” Netanyahu is charged with bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. He denies all allegations by the public prosecutor and sees himself as a victim of a “witch hunt” by the public prosecutor and the media – a term any political observer ought to be rather cognizant of.

According to Israeli law, a prime minister may remain in office; he only has to resign after a final judgment. Opposition MPs in the Knesset are considering a bill that would prevent accused politicians from forming a government.

Three elections within a year are testimony of Israel’s political issues and the division in the country. Netanyahu has once again failed to convince a majority and is thus apparently lacking the support he used to command. The upcoming weekend will likely decide Netanyahu’s future. Signs are pointing towards a coalition with Gantz at the head of the table and, in this case, taking the helm as the inevitable new prime minister of Israel.

L'articolo Netanyahu’s Weekend of Truth proviene da InsideOver.

The past year has been rather uncertain for Israel as the country has undergone two elections, both producing no final result. Maybe third time’s the charm, as incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu might finally have enough factors working in his favor to get across the finish line and fully beat his rival Benny Gantz. 

Netanyahu’s Ongoing Political Struggle

Faced with a major corruption scandal including charges of bribery and fraud, Netanyahu has found it difficult to woo enough voters to his camp to form a majority. But he might just have gotten a golden opportunity to swing the decision of the upcoming March 2 elections by riding the international political waves of nationalism and anti-Arab, anti-Muslim rhetoric. 

Already the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel’s 72-year history, Netanyahu is currently serving his third term and he has been in power since 2009. During this period, he has steered the Jewish state further to the right, encouraging settlements in Palestinian territories and launching military offensives in Gaza that have killed hundreds of civilians. 

In the elections too, Netanyahu has gone with the same strategy. Where his rival and former military chief Benny Gantz has taken a centrist outlook, Bibi has tried to pander to the far right and secure that voting bloc in perpetuity. While the strategy failed to get his coalition the required 61 seats in Israel’s Knesset to form a majority, things may well be different this time around.

Will American Support Boost Bibi’s Popularity?

For starters, Netanyahu’s popularity has been boosted by getting Washington firmly into Israel’s camp, first by its recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state and by shifting the US embassy there. This was followed by the Trump administration breaking away from a 40-year status quo, saying it doesn’t view the Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal. 

The biggest problem for the Prime Minister, however, was when he flanked Trump while the US President announced his Middle East Peace Plan. A far cry from its namesake, the document basically gave the Jewish state unprecedented concessions, including the recognition of settlements as official territory while also making Israel the final authority on any Palestinian state. 

Outcast by its neighbors and criticized widely by the international community, Israel almost always turns to the United States for diplomatic support. However, during the Obama era, it was hard to come by as relations between Netanyahu and the former US President were quite strained at times. However, ever since Trump came into power, that equation has changed drastically and Washington has rallied behind the Jewish state rather unconditionally, giving Bibi something to boast about and rely on.

Netanyahu has also tactfully exploited anti-Arab sentiment in Israel, especially in the last elections when the Joint List – a coalition of four Muslim parties in Israel – came out as the third largest electoral group with 10.6% of the vote share. Their success had put them in the kingmaker position, which centrist rival Gantz was expected to rely on to plug the gap in his numbers. 

Netanyahu’s Skill at Stoking Anti-Arab Fears

Speaking on the possibility of Gantz forming a coalition with Joint List, Netanyahu said in a rally: “such a government is an existential threat to the State of Israel. If a minority government like this is formed, they will celebrate in Tehran, Ramallah and Gaza the way they celebrate after every terror attack. This would be a historic national terror attack on the State of Israel.” The strategy worked as Gantz didn’t seek Arab support since he couldn’t risk associating with perceived enemies of the Jewish state, thus leading to yet another election in less than a year. 

To further establish himself among the nationalist camp, the Prime Minister on Feb. 25 approved new Israeli settlements of 3,500 homes in East Jerusalem, the proposed capital of Palestine, thus dealing another major blow to the two-state solution. 

Even the international political currents are such that they put Netanyahu at an advantage. Just days earlier, Iran elected a new parliament in which conservatives and hardliners won 221 of the 290 seats, potentially giving Bibi another factor to stoke fears about.

Likud Party Passes Rivals in Polls

It is no surprise that after months, Netanyahu’s Likud was finally able to surpass Gantz’s Kahol Lavan in the latest polls. However, that’s not enough since the former is expected to get 57 seats, still leaving a shortfall of 4. Will closeness with the US or the threat of Iran give Bibi another term in the office? We’ll find out on March 2.

L'articolo Is Third Time A Charm for Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

As Israel faces its third election in a year because of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s possible impeachment, the odds of him returning to power are becoming increasingly slim. The polls so far have been close for the current Prime Minister as the Walla news site discovered in December that 38 percent of people believe that Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White Party, is better suited to be Prime Minister, while 37 percent say Netanyahu is good for the role. But the Trump administration’s peace plan for the country could change everything for Netanyahu.

Referred to as the ‘Deal of the Century’, US President Donald Trump will decide on whether to release his plan before the Israeli election. A December report by Lebanese TV channel al-Mayadeen saw a draft copy of the deal that revealed a Palestinian state would share some responsibilities over Jerusalem, but the city would remain under Israeli control.

The plan also includes the formation of ‘New Palestine’ in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with the settlement blocs to become part of Israel.

Gantz has accused Washington of intervening in the election. Haaretz columnist Chemi Shalev said Trump’s peace plan ‘would throw a stink bomb at Israeli democracy.’ Shalev adds that the US President refused to publish the deal before the April 9th and September 12th elections because Netanyahu was not desperate for help then, but circumstances have changed due to the Prime Minister’s likely impeachment.

However, Trump may be releasing the deal at this time to benefit himself more than his ally. It was reported by American news website Axios that Channel 13’s Barak Ravid said if the US President waits until after Israel’s poll to release the plan, it may be difficult for him to do so due to his own re-election.

Also, Trump’s national security adviser Robert O’Brien told Axios that releasing the plan before the March 2nd election would not harm Israel’s electoral process, and that he is not focused on the nation’s electoral calendar. He is pessimistic that the country’s political deadlock will end before the deal’s release, which shows the White House is more interested in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than timing the plan’s publication to help a friend.

The President has did not discuss whether to present the plan before the Israeli election. Instead, Trump’s decision will be influenced by developments in Congress’s own impeachment process, the meetings the President and Jared Kushner will have with different leaders from the Middle East and Europe during the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, and Trump’s son-in-law’s final discussion with both Gantz and Netanyahu during the Fifth World Holocaust Forum.

The deal is unlikely to transform Netanyahu’s political fortunes. A Blue and White member told Al-Monitor that the Prime Minister ‘has run out of magic tricks’ and that if he welcomes the plan, Gantz will too. They added that they intend to avoid squabbling with Trump too much before the election and that they wish to maintain Israel’s ‘excellent’ relationship with the White House. Israeli voters who believe a change in government would thwart a peace plan that benefits their nation more than Palestine have nothing to fear if the Blue and White leader also supports the plan, which will only work to his electoral advantage.

It is yet to be seen whether Trump’s decision to publish his peace plan will benefit Netanyahu in the short-term, and what factors will help determine his final choice. If Gantz supports the deal, the Prime Minister will lose his electoral advantage; his close relationship with the US President. There is no reason as to why the Blue and White Party would oppose this deal, yet all can change in less than two months.

L'articolo Does Trump’s Peace Plan Constitute as Interference in Israel’s Election? proviene da InsideOver.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas took a swipe at Benjamin Netanyahu during his address to the United Nations on Thursday, saying the Israeli prime minister was a roadblock to peace between their two peoples.

Abbas used his UN General Assembly speech to bash Netanyahu, who could not attend the diplomatic gabfest in New York after he failed to secure a win in this month’s elections and was left trying to cobble together a coalition government.

“Mister Netanyahu, has he ever agreed to negotiations, behind closed doors, on a bilateral basis, multilateral basis? He never accepted any negotiations,” Abbas told the annual talking shop of presidents, prime ministers, and princes.

“We have both received several invitations from several countries to meet to start the negotiation process, he has rejected that. The latest three invitations from the Russian Federation, and he has rejected those.”

Abbas has frequently bashed Netanyahu’s stance on the Palestinians, saying the Israeli leader’s increasingly hardline policies have served to undermine the chances of a two-state solution to end decades of hostilities.

But these latest comments came as Netenyahu was fighting for his political survival, after an inconclusive ballot result on September 17 that left him weakened and his right-wing Likud party holding a second-place trophy.

Likud secured 32 seats in the 120-member Knesset — one seat less than the 33 won by former armed forces boss Benny Gantz’s centrist Blue and White party, which takes a softer tone on relations with Palestinians.

Abbas made no mention of Gantz in his remarks but dangled the prospect of negotiating with an Israeli leader other than Netanyahu, who has weeks to forge a coalition or the opportunity will be granted to another.

“They say Palestine doesn’t want peace or negotiations. We say we always extend our hand to peace because we are convinced that peace will only be achieved through negotiations,” Abbas told the 193-nation domed chamber.

Despite Likud gaining fewer seats than Blue and White, Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin on Wednesday gave Netanyahu the first shot at forming a government, saying he had a better chance of bringing together right-wing, religious groups.

Palestinians aim to make the West Bank part of a future state that would include the Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Israel seized those areas in a 1967 war and moved troops and settlers out of Gaza in 2005.

Responding to Abbas’ comments, Israel’s ambassador to the world body, Danny Danon, poured scorn on the Palestinian leader’s rhetoric.

“The Palestinian Authority [PA] chairman refuses to understand that recycled speeches in New York will not lead to solutions in Ramallah”, the Palestinian capital, Danon said in a statement emailed to journalists.

“Abbas prefers to invest more in the PA’s efforts against Israel at the UN than in the fight against incitement and terrorism in the PA under his leadership.”

Abbas’ 22-minute UN address also targeted United States President Donald Trump, whose so-called ‘deal of the century’ between Israelis and Palestinians has been widely criticized among Arabs.

“What is unfortunate and shocking is that the US administration … is supporting the Israeli aggression against us, reneging on its international political, legal and moral obligations,” Abbas told the assembled dignitaries.

The Palestinians have refused to speak with US negotiators since Trump decided to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv, declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel, and cut funding for Palestinian refugees.

Washington “speaks of the so-called deal of the century, and peddles deceptive and elusive economic solutions, after it destroyed by its policies and measures all possibilities to achieve peace,” Abbas added.

Speaking with reporters later on Thursday, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, warned that “hope is being lost” after months of stalled peace-making efforts in one of the world’s longest-running territorial disputes.

“If despair digs deeper roots then were all in trouble,” Safadi said in answer to a question from Inside Over.

“The situation has been very dire and frustrating over the last years because of the lack of progress on the peace track, but we will continue to work with everybody and remain aware that the stakes are very high and the need for action is urgent.”

L'articolo Netanyahu Is A Roadblock To Peace, Abbas Tells UN proviene da InsideOver.

Netanyahu has never been so close to dethronement, which could have ended his decades-long political career altogether, as he is facing indictment on charges of three cases of corruption. To his right-wing base, he has been surmounting hardships for the sake of the nation; to others, he is striving for a mere political survival and, potentially, his freedom, too.

If another candidate supersedes Netanyahu in leading the government, he would have to resign and appear in court over accusations of corruption. But so long as Benjamin Netanyahu, 69, remains as head of government, the Israeli justice will not be able to proceed to prosecution.

This September’s legislative elections caught Israel in a political gridlock, as no party could obtain the minimum of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The centre-left party Kahol Lavan (Blue and White), led by Benny Gantz, had put Netanyahu’s aspirations in jeopardy when Gantz outran Netanyahu’s conservative Likud in gaining most of the Knesset seats. Kahol Lavan reached 33 seats, whereas Likud only 31.

In such case, the rest of lawmakers from the other parties would have to recommend either leaders of the first two parties, Netanyahu or Gantz, to the President of Israel, Reuven Rivlin, who would then appoint a candidate to assemble a governing coalition. Here, 55 lawmakers recommended Benjamin Netanyahu, compared with 54 in favour of Gantz. Benny Gants previously acquired the recommendation of 57 lawmakers, due to the surprising support of lawmakers from the Arab Joint List – an alliance of Arab-majority parties who won 13 seats. By Monday, September 23, three legislators from the Joint List subsequently withdrew their support, making it 54 in total for Gantz.

As he stood quite close to his end as head of government, Netanyahu had called on Gantz, his major opponent, to form a coalition to reach a total of 64 seats in the Parliament. Gantz had accepted to proceed to talks, but rejected Netanyahu’s candidacy for another term in the top office, and said he, Gantz, would lead the new government.

Benny Gantz would hold that same position even when, on Wednesday, September 25, Netanyahu was appointed by Reuven Rivlin to assemble the new governing coalition. “Kahol Lavan, under my leadership, does not agree to sit in a government whose leader is facing a severe indictment,” Gantz said in reaction to the news.

The September elections came after Netanyahu failed to form the governing coalition following similarly failing elections in April. Netanyahu had called off the April elections by dissolving the Knesset after inconclusive results —and his imminent loss.

Reuven Rivlin, President of Israel since 2014, is fond of Netanyahu and is a Likud veteran himself – although Benjamin Netanyahu tried to block the 2014 presidential elections and even talked of abolishing the presidency. Benny Gantz, for his part, although a military veteran, is often seen as – like in Netanyahu’s own word – a “soft leftist”, usually a persona non grata in Israeli politics.

The Arab Joint List’s unprecedented involvement and support for Gantz, however, was less a bid to advance the interests of Arabs living within Israeli borders than to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu. Although its leader Ayman Odeh previously alluded to the possibility of sitting in the potential government formed by Kahol Lavan, the Arab Joint List later said it would not take part in it.

Belonging to the government, for Arab lawmakers, is to take part in its responsibility and to approve of its decisions, whereas Israel often leads military operations in the Arab-majority Palestine and is accused of segregation and the killing of numerous Palestinian civilians.

Although gone unnoticed by Kahol Lavan in the previous elections, the Arab Joint List was abruptly expected by the centre and the left to tip the balance and put an end to Netanyahu’s reign. “… Without the Arab vote, there won’t be any way to create a government that isn’t right-wing,” Rami Hod, executive director of the Berl Katznelson Educational Center, told Haaretz. Yet, on the other hand, Netanyahu often resorts to the Arabs to further his electoral aspirations, demonising them and fueling the anti-Arab sentiment long present among his right-wing base.

Calling on Israelis to vote for him before the September elections, Netanyahu wrote, “The right-wing government is in danger. Arab voters are heading to the polling stations in droves.” He later even warned that they would “destroy us all”.

No Arab party has ever taken part in a governing coalition in Israel. The country now bears 1.8 million Arabs within its mostly walled borders. They make a fifth of its population, but remain an outcast in general. They are often depicted – especially by the ultra-orthodox and the conservatives – as disloyal to the country they live in and bearers of dangerous nationalistic motivations favouring the Palestinian cause.

In 2018, the Knesset passed a nation-state law that declared Israel as the national home for Jews solely. It had also downgraded the Arabic language to merely having a “special status”, after it had been its second official language.

Besides, as violence, high rates in crime and, among others, inequity in education stain the Arab community in Israel, a rising dissatisfaction is often easily perceived within it and appears to only widen the peoples’ polarization. A recent study conducted by the Guttman Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research showed that 58% of Arabs in Israel believe their political leadership “does not do a good job in representing the Arab community,” compared to 41% in 2017.

If Gantz and Netanyahu ended up making a joint government following the late elections, the Arab Joint List’s leader Ayman Odeh could have been positioned to become the opposition leader, his party being the third-largest faction in the Knesset.

But now as Netanyahu has been appointed by Reuven Rivlin to try to assemble the coalition that will make up the next government, having a deadline of 28 days (and a possible extension of 14 days), the Joint List’s hope to weigh in as the opposition will easily fizzle out. If Netanyahu fails, his opponent Benny Gantz will get hold of the steering wheel, and Gantz, perhaps not so different from Netanyahu to the Arabs, had already called off the idea of having Arab lawmakers in his government.

L'articolo Doubts of Netanyahu’s Reign Means Arab Lawmakers’ Efforts Will Go in Vain proviene da InsideOver.

President Trump informed reporters in Los Angeles on Wednesday that he had yet to speak to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and added: ‘The relations are between our countries.’ This has sparked speculation among some that the US President prioritises the relationship between the US and Israel above any individual. But others believe that he could be distancing himself from a leader he views as a loser.

Dov Zakheim, former Undersecretary of Defense for George W. Bush, informed the Jerusalem Post that Trump does not want to take the risk of being associated with a loser who has failed to win two elections in a row. Zakheim also believes the President might start referring to Netanyahu as ‘his friend’ if he is able to form a coalition again, but that he is preparing to work with the leader of the Blue and White Party, Benny Gantz, if he succeeds the current Prime Minister. Considering the fate of the current government remains unclear, it is sensible for the Trump administration to start preparing for the reality that Netanyahu might not be Prime Minister soon.

However, it is more likely that the President is attempting to refrain from interfering in Israeli politics as opposed to distancing himself from a ‘loser’. Dan Shapiro, former ambassador to Israel, told the Jerusalem Post that both Trump and Netanyahu formed an alliance that served both their interests. This is why he actively intervened to ensure Netanyahu won a coalition in April, which he failed to do. Although Shapiro believes that Trump is preparing to form a relationship with a new premiere and that he has distanced himself from a leader he views as a loser, it could be that the President has realised his electoral interventions failed to help his ally.

During last week’s election, pictures of Trump shaking hands with Netanyahu were plastered on billboards throughout the country. The President tweeted about a possible defence treaty with Israel, which was viewed as another demonstration of his confidence in Netanyahu. But the Trump administration intervened in last week’s vote less frequently than it did in April’s election. For example, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser John Bolton visited Israel in April.

The Prime Minister’s relationship with Trump should have worked to his advantage during both elections. In 2017, the President relocated the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, thereby acknowledging that Washington accepted the latter as Israel’s capital. He also embraced Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights this year too. But Netanyahu’s electoral performances were overshadowed by three corruption charges, including accepting gifts from wealthy businessmen and dispensed favours to try to get more positive press coverage. A second election has failed to break the political stalemate overshadowing Israel’s politics.

Whilst the outcome of last week’s election remains unresolved, Trump cannot cooperate with his ally on the latest peace plan that his administration has created. It could create division between the different parties as Gantz may argue that he can seek favourable terms to Israel and a caretaker government might be unable to implement a plan that contemplates Israeli annexation. Therefore, it is more likely that the Trump administration will pursue its foreign policy when the winner of last week’s vote has been decided.

The President may not like to be associated with ‘losers’, but it is unlikely this is why the Trump administration has eased off Netanyahu. Until a new government is formed, Trump cannot implement his new peace plan for Israel, and he may have realised his interventions in April failed to ensure the current Prime Minister was re-elected, though he has not officially said that. If that is the case, the Trump administration is doing the right thing by cooling off relations until the situation becomes more clear.

L'articolo Why might Trump be distancing himself from Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

For Israel’s two main ultra-Orthodox parties, the Shas and the United Torah Judaism (UTJ), this week’s election was always going to determine the role religion plays in the state. Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition, the Blue and White Party, have been flirting with these potential coalition parties since the last vote in April. The ultra-Orthodox parties have also been part of the government for all but five years since the year 2000.

These parties have succeeded in exempting ultra-Orthodox young men from military service if they are in full-time religious study. They have fought plans to run public transport on Shabbat, the Jewish holy day, and scuppered a compromise over the Western Wall that would allow liberal Jews to organise mixed-gender prayer sessions. It was a secular nationalist party that blocked Netanyahu from forming a minority government after Israel’s last election in April over the issue of ultra-Orthodox military service and plunged the nation into this week’s second vote.

Although they have a phobia of modern technology due to fears that it will corrupt youthful minds with pornography and secularism, the Shas and the UTJ have developed advanced political machinery and keep detailed records of their voters. Shmuel Papenhaim, a Haredi rabbi and former newspaper editor, told The Daily Telegraph that they are ‘very organised.’ To ensure that they continue to dominate future coalition governments, they must proceed with embracing modern technology for one simple reason: the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) population is growing fast.

They currently make up only 12 per cent of Israel’s population, but Eli Berman of the Quarterly Journal of Economics estimates there are 1.5-1.8 million Haredi Jews throughout the globe. She predicts a high birth rate and an absence of interfaith marriage will ensure their numbers continue to grow. Israeli rabbis tell congregations it is their religious duty to vote for Haredi politicians who will secure their place in the afterlife.

Therefore, voter turnout is high among this group. During April’s election, the ultra-Orthodox settlement of Modiin Illit witnessed a turnout of 85 per cent when the national rate was only 68 per cent. Technology is crucial to ensuring the Shas and the UTJ can mobilise their voters.

This is why the UTJ created a Facebook account. They have used their page to encourage their voters to join the UTJ’s WhatsApp group which enabled voters to organise transport for them to reach their nearest polling station at this week’s election. The group also ensured members have ID cards ready to vote. The UTJ also share videos of the Torah Rabbi Haim Kanevsky explaining why it is crucial to vote.

Many of the party’s videos are widely circulated. The New York Times reports that the UTJ’s video clip of one of Kanevsky’s disciples asking him how to communicate with voters who support parties that disregard the Torah’s laws went viral. Israel Cohen, a political analyst for the ultra-Orthodox radio station Kol Berama, said that the mainstream parties want to appeal to Haredi voters like Omer Yankelevich, an ultra-Orthodox Jew who joined the Blue and White Party. This shows the two main parties still believe the Haredi vote matters.

The Shas also use Telegram to connect with its voters from remote locations and coordinate groups of roughly 200,000 members. Israeli firm Check Point Software Technologies warned that hackers can use this technology to break into WhatsApp and Telegram accounts, but this has not prevented the Haredi parties from continuing to use them effectively.

Social media is vital in ensuring the UTJ and the Shas continue to mobilise their voter base and guarantee that these parties maintain a presence in Israeli politics. Although the Haredi population fears modern technology, it helps them record accurate voting figures and helped them engage with their younger electors during this week’s election. For these reasons alone, the ultra-Orthodox community remains a substantial force in Israeli politics, no matter which mainstream party wins the most seats in any election.

L'articolo How Israeli ultra-Orthodox Parties are Deploying Technology Effectively proviene da InsideOver.

Neither Likud nor the Blue and White Party succeeded in gaining a majority in this week’s Israeli election, and now the fates of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Benny Gantz rest in the hands of potential coalition partners. Because of this election’s outcome, all the leaders of parties that succeeded in securing representation in the Knesset (Israel’s Parliament) are due to begin consultations with the country’s President, Reuven Rivlin, on Sunday. This process normally endures for a few days before the President appoints the leader he believes has the best chance of forming a coalition government.

The Prime Minister has one factor against him in discussions with potential coalition partners: his lingering corruption charges. A final pre-indictment hearing is scheduled for the first week of October. Netanyahu has denied all charges against him, but any party willing to govern alongside him is taking a risk if he is found guilty as it could cause the government to collapse. Considering none of the main parties have a majority, the next few weeks, possibly months, could be characterised by behind-the-scenes deals.

Former Defence Minister Avigdor Liberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, could play a substantial role in these negotiations. His party is on track to win nine seats and he ruined the Prime Minister’s chances of forming a religious coalition after April’s vote, demonstrating the influence he has. Liberman has demanded he intends to form a national unity government consisting of Likud and the Blue and White Party.

However, this outcome is dependent upon two factors. Currently, the Blue and White Party are maintaining their position that Netanyahu must not be leading this national unity government Liberman favours. Yet the Prime Minister’s speech on Wednesday night indicated that he has no intention of resigning his post. Either the opposition alter their stance to ensure a coalition can be formed, or Netanyahu resigns. This compromise is dependent upon one of the main parties having to make sacrifices.

As Israeli publication Haaretz argues, Netanyahu has two factors going in his favour: Donald Trump and Iran. Since becoming US President, Trump has been the staunchest ally Israel has had in recent years. In 2017, he relocated the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This year, he tweeted that he recognises Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

But Israel is stuck between China and the US. In May 2019, the Israeli Finance Ministry published a controversial tender to build a new water desalination plant dubbed Soreq B. The Chinese Hutchinson Company appears close to winning the contract despite pressure from the US to halt large infrastructure projects with the Chinese for fear that it could lead to the exposure of Israeli intelligence. With the ongoing trade war between the US and China, Netanyahu could use this to his advantage in coalition talks. He can claim he knows how to negotiate with Trump whilst ensuring Israel does not get involved in the US-China trade war to ensure Israel continues to receive Chinese investments.

Whoever becomes the next Prime Minister should maintain a close relationship with Trump because Iran remains a threat to Jerusalem. The US President has ordered an increase of sanctions against Tehran following the recent drone attack on Saudi oil. With the Islamic Republic continuing to sponsor Hezbollah, an Israeli Prime Minister close to Trump can remind him that any peace settlement must ensure Iran ends its sponsorship of terrorist groups.

Foreign policy experience is the one factor that can rescue Netanyahu’s premiership, especially when Israel faces an uncertain future. The question is: will his potential coalition partners realise that and allow him to retain his premiership?

L'articolo How Can Netanyahu Retain His Premiership of Israel? proviene da InsideOver.