A developing Greek-Israeli defense partnership and the potential of establishing an armed drone program in the Hellenic Armed Forces is increasingly worrying Turkey.

While Turkish President Recep Erdogan is trying to enhance ties with Israel, the possibility of Israeli drones operating from Greek islands in the Aegean Sea is a concern for Ankara. In fact a prominent Turkish newspaper recently claimed claimed that Athens’ actions are an act of aggression which could quickly escalate to war.

The Greek-Israeli Agreement

The Hellenic Parliament approved a bill earlier this year on July 7 which established the partnership between the Greek and Israeli Defense Departments. The bill came as the concluding step of long negotiations between the two states that officially started back in 2011, when both sides signed a Principal Memorandum of Understanding.

The agreement formally consolidated the cooperation of Athens and Tel Aviv in the defense sector and highlighted the aligning geopolitical interests of the countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Among other matters, in the context of this defense bill, the Israeli defense industry has agreed with Greece to provide a number of Heron drones on a leasing basis. Athens will initially lease the drones for a three-year period; at the end of the leasing timeframe, the drones could then be fully purchased by the Hellenic Armed Forces, according to further arrangements that will be finalized at a later stage.

How Will the Drone Partnership Work?

At the moment the program is ongoing, with military personnel of the two countries already working together in terms of training and familiarization with the control and operational procedures of the new systems. According to the current reports from the Greek side, Heron drones are expected to be operational within the next few months.

Based on information provided by senior-level officials the drones will be strategically based on specific Aegean islands in the proximity of the Turkish coastline. It is not clear as of now if Israeli personnel will be assigned to Greece for the primary stages of the drone deployment, but there are indications that the system will be fully operated only by Greek personnel once the necessary training has been completed.

The Strategic Significance of Drone Deployment in the Aegean

The eventual deployment of advanced drone systems in the Aegean islands would probably mean Athens turning the tables on Ankara. Both countries share extended maritime boundaries and airspace across the Aegean region. The Greek-Turkish decades-long dispute – which has been rapidly escalating during recent months – never led to a full-scale war, partly due to the balance of powers between the two sides.

Air power is a critical aspect of this balance of power, and the Hellenic and the Turkish Air Force have been in a state of constant antagonism, with both trying to outdo the other in their abilities, equipment and strategic edge.

The remarkable advancement of the Turkish drone industry and operational capabilities – as have been witnessed in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh – indicate clearly that Turkey has been rapidly establishing key infrastructure and skills in this vital field over the last few years.

Greece is seemingly behind. The scheduled deployment of Israeli drones in the Aegean islands could totally change the current status quo. However we should emphasize that in order to fully exploit the capabilities of the drone, the Greek government should make a priority the armament of the recently obtained UAVs.

According to the press release following the Greek-Israeli Heron deal the drones will be used vaguely for border defense purposes. The notice did not clarify if there is a potential for the drones to be armed, or they will be only utilized for reconnaissance missions.

Heron Drones and the Turkish Backlash

At the moment, two Heron drones have  reportedly been stationed at the Greek island of Skyros. The Heron model is one of the pioneering UAV systems of the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). With a Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) range of over 1,000 km, an operational attitude of over 35,000 feet and endurance up to 45 hours, Heron presents a huge challenge for Turkey.

It should be noted here that in early 2010s, Turkey has purchased a former version of the Heron UAV and there are unconfirmed claims that this model was used as the base for the development of Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drones. 

Heron is not only superior from the Turkish UAV spearhead, the Bayraktar TB2, but also the geographical advantage of Greece – namely the numerous small islands in the proximity of the Turkish mainland which can be used as a base of operations for the Greek drones – presents an unparalleled challenge for Ankara.

On the top of that, Herons have the capacity to be equipped with ATG Missiles, laser-guided bombs, and long-range Air-to-Surface Missiles. This is why the deployment of armed drones would give a strategic advantage to Greece. Any weapons systems that will be chosen for the potential armament of Heron, combined with the unique capabilities of the drone, could literally enable Athens to conduct crucial strikes in the very center of the Turkish heartland.

Turkey is Worried About The Greek Drone Deal

If Greece take the decisive step to deploy a considerable number of armed drones across the Aegean islands, a harsh reaction should be expected from the Turkish side. President Erdogan will fully exploit any sort of leverage available to establish his plans for the eventual dominance of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, and in this sense any move that could give a strategic advantage to Greece will not go uncontested.

Turkey has been traditionally putting forward the casus belli blackmailing method to create geopolitical faits accomplis, with the most prominent example being the Greek reluctance to make use of its legal rights and expand its territorial waters from 6 to 12 nautical miles in the Aegean Sea.

Back in the late 1990s, we saw a much weaker – politically and militarily – Turkey blackmailing the Cypriot Republic (and essentially Greece) with regards to the deployment of the S-300 missile system in the island of Cyprus. In that case Athens and Nicosia eventually backed down and the missiles were transferred to Crete in a quasi-solution.

In the current situation, with Turkish operational and strategic capabilities significantly upgraded and an expansionist foreign policy from the Turkish side ever growing, it is up to the Greeks to have political willingness to proceed with the necessary steps, in order to consolidate robust defense and military capabilities, before the balance of power has irreversibly turned in Ankara’s favor.

L'articolo Turkey Goes Ballistic After Greece Announces Possible Drone Deployment in Aegean Sea proviene da InsideOver.

Israel has launched its new spy satellite Ofek 16 into orbit in an attempt to improve the country’s military reconnaissance. The region remains volatile, particularly after a fire the previous week at an Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz.

Details of the Launch

Against the backdrop of new tensions with Iran, Israel launched a spy satellite into space on Monday, July 6. The Ofek 16 satellite was successfully launched into orbit at 4 a.m. from the Palmachim Air Force Base in central Israel, the Israel Defense Ministry confirmed. Data transmission had already started on schedule. However, several tests are planned before Israel can fully utilize the satellite for its intended purposes.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the successful launch significantly increases Israel’s ability to deal with the country’s adversaries “both nearby and far away”. Meanwhile, current Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz also recognized the launch’s importance by stating that technological superiority and intelligence capabilities were “essential to Israel’s security.” Moreover, Israel would “continue to strengthen and maintain Israel’s capabilities on every front and every location.”

What Does the Satellite Do?

Like various previous models, the spy satellite is intended to contribute to improved military reconnaissance. Amos Jadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, said the use of Ofek 16 provided Israel “special strategic and intelligence capabilities” – skills rather crucial during a time when a possible escalation with Iran is emerging.

Israel is one of only thirteen countries that operate reconnaissance satellites and has worked with several countries on satellite technology, including Italy and France. The head of Israel’s space program, Shlomi Sudari, stated that its satellite network the country now possesses could observe the entire Middle East and beyond. The latter is all the more critical since Iran also successfully launched a spy satellite into orbit in April, after years of unsuccessful attempts.

Although the new satellite’s primary function is likely to monitor Iran and developments in its nuclear and missile programs, defense officials denied any symbolism in the launch, given growing reports that Israel could be responsible for a number of recent explosions in Iran.

Israel has previously proved its ability to penetrate sensitive Iranian facilities, including a 2018 raid in Tehran. Moreover, Israel and the U.S. are also believed to have been responsible for the Stuxnet computer virus that disrupted Iran’s nuclear program a decade ago.

Assessing Tensions With Iran

Only recently, Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi stated that Israel would continue to take any measure necessary to protect itself against the Iranian nuclear program.

If Israel were responsible for the fire in the Natanz nuclear facility, it would mark another in a series of daring strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. The latter would further increase the risk of Iranian retaliation on either Israeli or Western targets. However, Iran’s current situation with a crippled economy and no financial flexibility does not leave them in a promising position. In addition, Iran is experiencing rising domestic tensions against the government and the pandemic, which may prohibit Iran from executing any retaliation at this point, at least not without utilizing a proxy to carry out the attacks. The latter could explain why Teheran has been reluctant to call out Israel for the attack in Natanz publicly. After all, the mullahs would lose face if they accused Israel – which has been Iran’s default modus operandi since the Iranian Revolution – but without the option of retaliation due to the aforementioned factors.

In any case, Israel’s new satellite will provide increased coverage and early warnings of any Iranian activity such as planned Iranian missile launches and tests, and information on activities at sites where components of Iran’s nuclear program are developed and produced. Against Tehran, that has long vowed to eradicate Israel off the map, any form of increased security for Israel is hence positive news.

L'articolo Israel Launches New Spy Satellite Ofek 16 proviene da InsideOver.

Israel announced earlier this month that they have developed a breakthrough in fielding laser-based systems that allows them to intercept incoming rockets, drones and other aerial threats. The key breakthrough for the Israelis comes from the laser’s power and accuracy.  It now produces a sustained beam that can accurately target and destroy incoming missiles.

Lasers differ from other interceptor technology in that it doesn’t use projectiles or interceptor missiles. This makes lasers an inexpensive and limitless supply of defenses against rockets (if the power is on). This is important because bad actors like Iran has shown that the relatively inexpensive drones could be targeted by thousand-dollar missiles. In one extreme example, a US ally used a multimillion-dollar Patriot missile to shoot down a 200 dollar drone. Using lasers avoids those extremes and saves the defending state money.

But the technology is not without its flaws. The effective range of these laser weapons is relatively short. It can only engage one target, most likely a missile, at a time. And it must sustain the laser on the target for a certain amount of time to damage, destroy, or confuse its sensors. As Americans have known since the Gulf War, and the Russians found out in Syria, lasers can lose effectiveness in hazy atmospheric conditions created by sand storms, smoke, or heavy wind that kicks up dust.  Of course, there is never any of that is the Middle East or during a war, so the limitations make this an important complementary piece in missile defense.

The Israeli developments have an important application for US missile forces and strategy against missiles. The Airforce reported recently reported that its Self-protect High Energy Laser Demonstrator (SHIELD) could be tested on F15s as early as 2021 and later mounted on F16s and F35 fighters. Traditionally, the lasers have required vast amounts of power and a long cool downtime that made them ineffective. It is advances with cooling and power that allow the technology to be miniaturized and mounted on planes.

It has all the same limitations as the Israeli defense, but like they found, it remains formidable as an additional layer of defense. Lasers would force enemy defenses to expend more missiles to destroy both stealth and non-stealth fighters. Stealth bombers currently rely on their stealth, but this would add a defensive weapon system. And even slow-moving transports and electronic warfare planes could benefit and be tougher to kill. For example, the F35s are notorious gas hogs that make the fleet of air refueling ships particularly important and vulnerable to long-range missiles launched by advanced fighters like the J20. But if successful, the lasers would give them an important tool for survivability that makes even logistical platforms tough to kill.

The planes aren’t the only systems receiving upgrades. The navy recently reported that its High-Energy Laser and Integrated Optical-Dazzler with Surveillance – or HELIOS (HELIOS) lasers could be mounted on its Zumwalt class destroyers as early as 2021. These ships, along with the Arleigh Burke Class are some of the most important components in missile defenses. They have specialized radar and complement of missiles that are designed to withstand massive swarm attacks from potential adversaries like Russia and China.

Like the Israelis, the ships will benefit from an unlimited supply (as long as the ships remained powered) which frees up their intercepting missiles for other targets. It lowers the cost of defending against missiles and the lasers can be linked with the Aegis technology for speedier targeting and interception.

History is littered with super technologies that over-promised and under-delivered. The King Tiger tank from Germany and the super Battleships of the Japanese were supposed to win the war for them.  But they both had limited effect. And the F35 this has a host of problems. Plus, this technology is only in its advanced testing phase and would have limitations once it is fielded.

The potential threats from adversaries fielding new and faster rockets as well as numerous low tech dangers like drones produces scary, clickbait headlines about the threat they post. But the strength in defence lies in having multiple, interlocking systems that overlap and are continually upgraded to meet them. The Israelis will use lasers to supplement their Iron Dome missile defence, and they are adding underground sensors to detect infiltration from those who fire shoulder-mounted rockets. And the US is using lasers to add another layer to their combat air patrol, AEGIS cruisers, and close-in weapon systems. Readers can be reasonably confident that Western nations can meet current and future threats.

L'articolo Israeli Lasers and the Future of American Missile Defense proviene da InsideOver.