2020 continues to be a dramatic year for Israeli politics as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly decided against passing an Israeli state budget by the late-August deadline. This is because the coronavirus could thwart the two-year budget stipulated in the coalition deal he signed up to. Instead, Netanyahu wants a budget that covers the rest of 2020. This conflict has the potential to trigger another set of elections in November.

Netanyahu’s Strategy

Haaretz reported on Wednesday that the Prime Minister intends to create chaos in the coalition to increase support for tearing apart the government.

The current coalition is led by Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party. They were sworn in after three inconclusive elections. The coronavirus pandemic caused the Blue and White leader to break his promise not to join Netanyahu’s government due to the latter’s indictment on corruption charges.

An Election is Still Netanyahu’s Preferred Option

Another reason why the Prime Minister has allegedly decided to seek another set of elections is because of the Jerusalem District Court’s ruling last week that witnesses will start testifying in his criminal trial in January. Apparently Netanyahu worries that he will be barred from serving as Prime Minister while he is on trial.

This is an incredibly risky move should Netanyahu choose to pursue it. He has already held three elections in over a year and neither one of them have improved his electoral fortunes. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister insists that this is still his preferred option and that he has no intention of breaking his rotation agreement that would allow Gantz to become Prime Minister in November 2021.

He may live to regret those words as Israel struggles to tackle the coronavirus pandemic. Opinion polls conducted by The Times of Israel at the end of June found that if the Prime Minister held fresh elections, he would win two more seats, which would take his final total to 38. Netanyahu currently has 36 seats in the Knesset. Meanwhile, the Blue and White Party would collapse to 9 seats. However, these polls were conducted before Israel witnessed an increase in coronavirus cases.

The Coronavirus Has Sparked Anti-Netanyahu Protests

433 Israelis have died of COVID-19 and 23,560 others have recovered from it, but there are still 56,748 confirmed cases. Although Israel has experienced a small number of deaths compared to other nations, Netanyahu’s handling of the virus has sparked protests throughout Israel.

Last Saturday, thousands of demonstrators gathered outside the Prime Minister’s residence in Jerusalem and at a park in Tel Aviv, voicing frustration over the government’s response to a pandemic that has devastated Israel’s economy.

Netanyahu’s government has also been torn between reopening the economy and extending the lockdown. The Prime Minister said that he reopened the economy too soon through late April and early May following the news that Israel experienced 1,000 new coronavirus infections a day in recent weeks, which triggered a broad range of restrictions. Markets, shops and other public venues have closed on weekends, while restaurants have been restricted to take away and delivery.

Israel Cannot Afford to Remain in Lockdown

Netanyahu announced plans to send cash to all Israelis in a bid to quell public anger over the economic effects of the lockdown, but many experts said Israel needs more targeted assistance.

The Israeli Government cannot afford to remain in lockdown forever. The same polls the Times of Israel conducted in June found that 58 percent of people disapproved of Netanyahu’s performance on the economic aspects of COVID-19. With unemployment already a problem in Israel, the Finance Ministry predicts that the economy could contract by 5.9 to 7.2 percent this year and it forecasts budget deficits of 13 to 14.2 percent of GDP. This is an awful time to hold an election.

If the polls are correct, Netanyahu would be able to remove Gantz from his coalition and collaborate with other right-wing parties. But polls are unreliable and an election could be an opportunity for voters to express their dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s handling of the coronavirus in general. He should proceed with caution.

L'articolo Why a November Election is a Risk to Netanyahu proviene da InsideOver.

The drama of Israeli elections has lingered on for more than a year and over three rounds of polls but it appears it might finally be near resolution as the unity government between two rival groups looms closer. After bickering for weeks, the incumbent prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu a few days back claimed to have reached an agreement in principle with Benny Gantz, which the latter didn’t initially confirm.

The Basic Problem in Israel’s Politics

Neither coalition had managed to reach the 61-seat threshold in the Knesset to form a government, creating fears of yet another election ending in a stalemate. But in a surprising twist, Gantz got 74 votes on March 26 to be elected as the interim speaker of the parliament with the support of Bibi’s Likud. This resulted in Gantz’s own Blue and White splitting away on ideological grounds for not wanting to be part of any majority that has the incumbent prime minister on it.

Then this Sunday, Netanyahu and Gantz in a joint statement announced “reaching fundamental understandings through efforts to form a unity government,” while making it clear that some minor issues still need to be ironed out.

As per the agreement, the unity government would last three years with Bibi to serve as the prime minister until September 2021 before being replaced by Gantz. Meanwhile, the ministries will be shared equally between the two groups at 15 each, with finance and health going to Likud and security, justice, communications and foreign affairs to Blue and White.

Gantz’s Damage to His Own Coalition

But reaching a truce with the increasingly right wing Likud hasn’t done well to Gantz’s own centrist Blue and White. What was once cobbled together to pose a strong front against Netanyahu has now been reduced to two medium and one small parties, giving much power to the incumbent prime minister.

The fallout from joining forces with Bibi was almost immediate as Blue and White’s former allies Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu and Labor pulled out. Israel’s third largest electoral group, the Arab Joint List with 15 seats, had also recommended to the president to invite Gantz to form the government.

For the past two elections Gantz has taken a strong, hardliner stance against any deal that would keep Netanyahu as the prime minister. However, he justified this latest u-turn saying the country is in extraordinary times due to the threat posed by the coronavirus. “Israel is facing a growing number of infections and the number of victims is rising daily,” he told the Knesset on Thursday.

Unsustainable Deal

While the latest agreement between the two primary political groups has put talks of another election to rest for the time being, it remains to be seen how sustainable the deal is. First of all, Netanyahu is being indicted for corruption and has gotten only a temporary relief until May 24 as the country’s courts were frozen in the wake of the coronavirus.

The unity government could also have far-reaching consequences in the overall political landscape of the country as Blue and White — seen as the only viable frontier to Likud and its right wing allies — has succumbed to pressure. Israel’s Arab minority is already feeling disillusioned by the system. Despite the Arabic Joint List party emerging as the third largest group, they have had no say in the entire deal-making, with many feeling absolutely hopeless about the prospect of any secular party calling the shots.

L'articolo Unity Government in Israel at Last, but for How Long? proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an interview this weekend in which he claimed that a deal on a unity government between his Likud party and his rival Benny Gantz’s Blue and White has already been reached and is just waiting to be signed. The deal would provide for a rotational premiership between the leaders of the two main parties over a specified period.

More About the Power-Sharing Deal

The power-sharing arrangement would involve the Likud party starting off with the posts of prime minister, finance minister and Knesset speaker, while Blue and White would start with the positions of deputy prime minister and foreign minister. The two parties would hold the positions for one and a half years after which they would rotate.

In a message directed at Gantz, Netanyahu vowed to stick to the deal saying “I will leave office on the agreed date. There will be no shticks and tricks. Millions of Israelis are waiting for us.”

However the claims of a deal were quickly downplayed d by Gantz who said “those who want to unity do not work with ultimatums and harmful leaks and certainly do not try to hurt our democracy and citizens by paralysing the Knesset.”

Gantz’s Position

From Gantz statement one could deduce two important points: one is that while there is the possibility of a deal the details have been leaked too early by Netanyahu. Secondly is that the issue of who will be the speaker of the Knesset continues to present the biggest hurdle in the talks of a unity government.

Israel’s center-left have been mounting pressure on Knesset speaker Yuli Edelstein to organize for the election of a new speaker of the Knesset speaker to allow the formation of the Arrangement Committee . Efforts to replace Edelstein started late last year when the Blue and White accused him of being part of a plot to protect Netanyahu from prosecution through new legislations.

Emboldened with the endorsement  of a number of parties, last week the Blue and White increased pressure on Edelstein to act but he refused. At first Edelstein argued that his refusal was a safety precaution to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in line with social distancing policy, but later on said it was meant to put pressure on Gantz and Netanyahu to compromise.

Gantz: ‘In a Democratic Regime the Legislature Cannot Be Paralyzed’

This prompted the Blue and White to send Edelstein a letter informing him that he had no authority to stop the convening of the Knesset and claiming that his decision was mainly motivated by a personal interest to remain speaker. Adding his voice to the standoff was Gantz who declared, “In a democratic regime, the legislature cannot be paralysed and prevented from expressing the will and the votes of the citizens. Anyone who thinks he can advance us to a borderline dictatorship is mistaken.”

Although  the pro-Gantz legislators are claiming that their goal is to help deal with the current emergency situation caused by the coronavirus, they also have a hidden aim of disqualifying Netanyahu from forming a government because of the charges facing him.

Netanyahu’s Power Bloc: Removing Knesset Speaker Would be a Dealbreaker

A bill that that would prevent anybody facing criminal charges from forming a government has already been submitted by Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beytenu who is now a leading supporter of Gantz. According to the newspaper Ynet Netanyahu’s replacement in any unity government formed would be sought from members of his party serving in the cabinet.

Pro-Netanyahu bloc has warned that a move to remove the speaker would be a red line in the formation of a unity government.

“We seen any attempt to oust the incumbent speaker before a viable government emerges crosses a red line and eliminates the possibility of forming a broad emergency government ”

“These Iranian laws will prevent Prime Minister Netanyahu from serving as prime minister and running for direct ministerial elections , which Lapid scandously plan to hold in in this term already during the crisis,” Likud leaders have said.

Netanyahu Accuses Blue and White Party of Disloyalty and Playing Politics in a Time of National Crisis

Netanyahu himself has decried the plans to oust him saying, “While I am fighting the coronavirus , they Blue and White are trying to topple a prime minister who is steering the ship through a storm.”

But in what is seen as a major victory for the pro-Grantz bloc, the High Court in Jerusalem made a decision this past Sunday wherein they ruled that Knesset speaker Edelstein must organize a parliamentary vote on his replacement by Wednesday.

The Likud legislators have ruled out participating in such a vote accusing the Blue and White party of “dictatorial , destructive conduct.” If they make good their threats and boycott the vote then this will give the pro Gantz faction an opportunity to dominate key committees. With 61 members supporting it, the Blue and White party is already assured of obtaining the speakers position.

Time is Running Out

Gantz has only three weeks remaining to form a government. In recognition of the task that lies ahead of him he recently said, “Since I received the mandate to form a government I have been working — exactly as I promised — to form a wide, stable and statesmanlike government that will know how to deal with the great challenge before us.”

However these efforts are being hampered by the decision of most of his party members and other factions within his blocs not to participate in any government that would involve the Arab Joint List.

L'articolo Political Gamesmanship Heats Up as Israeli Politicians Try to Form a Government proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu caught many people by surprise when he withdrew his request for immunity. The move came less that a month after the Netanyahu formally requested parliament to grant him immunity after he was charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

Why Did Netanyahu Withdraw His Request For Immunity?

Notably, Netanyahu withdrew his request just hours before he appeared with President Donald Trump at the White House for the unveiling of the Israel-Palestine peace plan. There’s no doubt that the request for immunity was bound to be rejected by the Knesset after Netanyahu failed to lobby enough support including in his own party. His party the Likud had distanced itself from him in a courteously by announcing that it would boycott the session.

Faced with no other option, Netanyahu posted on his Facebook page saying that the proceedings in parliament would have been a circus and he did not want to take part in a dirty game . “I informed the Knesset that I am withdrawing my immunity request,” he wrote. This withdrawal now opens the way for legal proceedings against him to move on.

Immunity Was A Political Liability For Netanyahu⁠—And A Gift To His Enemies

With elections fast approaching the request for immunity has been one of the political weapons his political adversaries have been using to disparage him. Benny Gantz’s strong sentiments on the immunity hearings at political meetings showed how much he was yearning to send his rival to the political gallows. In mid January he told a faction of Blue and White in Tel-Aviv:

“Netanyahu has requested immunity and, we will use all parliamentary means and tools that are available to us to deliberate on his request,” adding, “I will not let anyone harm the democratic process and prevent such a hearing . Decisions on this issue must be made by tomorrow . We will not allow anyone to stall.”

According to sources there was even a plan’s to replace Knesset speaker Yuli Edelstein if he did not allow the hearing on Netanyahu’s immunity to go ahead. However they were caught off guard by the Prime Minister’s decision to drop the charges during the US visit.

Netanyahu Shows His Political Cunning

Netanyahu is a clever politician he knew what he need to do take the wind out his opponent’s sail, and also to hold his party together. On top of that, members of his Likud party had been advising him to drop immunity so that the criminal case wouldn’t dominate the campaigns. Well aware of the situation he decided to drop the request at an opportune time during which he could also gain some political mileage⁠—rather than wait to be embarrassed.

This was intentionally planned to happen on January 28 so that it was overshadowed by the peace plan which he is greatly bunking on for his re-election as prime minister. While making the announcement Netanyahu didn’t hesitate to paint himself as a politician who was  out on a serious historic mission while his opponents were busy engaging in petty politics of immunity.

“Instead of understanding the greatness of the hour and rising above political considerations , they continue to engage in cheap politics that are damaging to this decisive moment in the history of the country,” Netanyahu wrote on Facebook.

Israel’s Political Battleground Has Shifted

This announcement effectively shifted the political battleground denying Blue and White  a key ammunition they had always used in their campaigns. Now Gant and his allies will have to find another weapon against the Likud party.

As if that was enough, While the Blues and White were busy pondering their next move they were thrown in another spin when the Israel-Palestine plan was announced shortly after. According to some analysts , through the deal Trump is helping Netanyahu politically in the hopes that, Netanyahu will help him in the 2020 US election, especially considering the influence Jewish interest groups wield in US politics.

Gantz’s Perplexing Dilemma

The reason why Gantz and his party are now in dilemma is that Israeli sovereignty has always been on top of his election agenda. Last year he vowed to extend Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan valley after Netanyahu promised to apply Israeli sovereignty over all West Bank settlements. But with the US peace plan proposing Israeli control over Jordan and the West Bank⁠—excluding East Jerusalem⁠—Gantz’s agenda appears to have been thrown in the trash bin. It is no longer needed if Netanyahu is already doing it.

As one Isreali political analyst said “Netanyahu, once on his political death bed, is now recuperating: running the show, overseeing historic moves, dictating pace, while his people are busy building Gantz political coffin.”

Within Gantz’s own party Blue and White, there are those who believe the proposal pulled the rug under Gantz’s feet in favour of Netanyahu. “Netanyahu will now take advantage of the new agenda until election day . He will squeeze this lemon to the very end and dictate the pace “ said one party official.

More Successes For Netanyahu

Putin’s decision to release Naama Issachar⁠—an Israeli woman who had been detained for drug trafficking⁠—capped Netanyahu’s week of success and is expected to boost his political standing. Putin took the move just a day before the Isreali leader arrived in Moscow to discuss with him the peace proposal. Netanyahu had personally assured Issachar’s mother that he would get her daughter released.

Whether all these will help Netanyahu to be re-elected remain to be seen. His annexation plan with Trump is already in question, while the latest opinion poll shows he is trailing Gantz by around two seats.

L'articolo Netanyahu Is Now Dictating The Pace proviene da InsideOver.