Israel’s government coalition remains a highly volatile partnership. The latest example was seen this week when the country avoided the fourth new election in two years at the last minute.

Major Instability Still Remains

However, with the postponement of the budget dispute, the next round in the ongoing battle between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz is just that: postponed, not overcome nor canceled. With it, the next conflict is already waiting.

The coalition’s volatility between Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’s Blue & White had been anticipated when both agreed to the terms of their forced partnership. Accordingly, there has now been an ongoing dispute among both parties since they took office on May 17.

This week, it nearly ended the coalition, in which case the Israelis would have cast their votes for the fourth time in just two years.

The Budget Dispute

Specifically, the dispute was about the country’s budget—the coalition agreement provided for adopting a budget for the rest of this year and next year. However, Netanyahu and his Likud claimed that this would tie the government’s hands in urgent action to help the economy, which has been hurt due to the coronavirus pandemic. Netanyahu stuck to his position. Gantz, who opposed it, also remained tough.

The reason for this is that Netanyahu and Gantz are concerned with their political future. In Israel, there are automatically new elections if the deadline does not pass the budget. Unlike in other cases of failure of the current coalition, Netanyahu would thus remain in office.

The approval of the budget for the coming year is, therefore, a reassurance for Gantz that Netanyahu, as agreed in the coalition agreement, will hand over the baton to him in November 2021. Literally, at the last minute, both sides agreed on a bill that postpones the deadline for adopting the budget by three months and thus provides both a respite. The new deadline is now December 23.

Is it Really a Co-Equal Coalition Government?

The deep distrust between Netanyahu and Gantz suggests that the issue will remain, despite the postponement, which, by no means, will mitigate the current circumstances in Israel. While Netanyahu and Gantz are equal partners on paper, Blue and White remain the minority partner. The party not only has fewer parliamentary seats than the Likud, but the public does not credit Gantz’s willingness to compromise. Instead, he is criticized as a man without a backbone. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is doing everything possible to present himself as Israel’s unilateral answer to a greater future.

The most recent example of this is the normalization agreement with the United Arab Emirates. Gantz and Foreign Minister Ashkenazi only found out about this when President Trump spread the news on Twitter. Instead of admitting to the two that they were correct in their line of balancing with countries in the region over the planned annexation of parts of the West Bank, Netanyahu said he had not informed the two because he was afraid they might do something leak to the public.

Had Netanyahu let the coalition collapse, an expensive and challenging election campaign would likely have overshadowed his Emirates’ success. In addition to the COVID-19 crisis, that was arguably another reason why he finally agreed to the postponement.

The Threat of New Elections Still Remains

However, the threat of new elections has not disappeared and Netanyahu will do everything possible to maintain his power and attempt to circumvent the agreement of having Gantz becoming his successor.

He is still on trial for corruption charges and can no longer avoid the latter. However, by staying in power, he could severely lengthen the process and influence a potential jail sentence by appointing posts such as attorney general and police chief.

Blue and White, and above all, Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn, whose prerogative is filling such vacancies, are currently standing in the way of such an approach. For the time being, Likud has stipulated that the picks will be made by a committee that also includes Likud representatives. The decision on the exact composition remains pending for now.

Israel’s government is, therefore, far from being out of the woods.

L'articolo Israel Avoids Yet Another Crisis – For Now proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planned to take the first steps towards annexing Jewish settlement areas in the West Bank in July. However, the agenda has recently become almost a sideshow, primarily due to the COVID-19 crisis which continues to pose a severe challenge for Israel.

Israel’s Struggle With COVID-19

The simple answer as to why the process of the planned annexation has yet to start is COVID-19. Israel is not doing well in the pandemic, and infection rates are still high. Accordingly, with the economy and health of the people struggling, annexing land is not a priority for a majority of Israelis.

Netanyahu is taking the latter into account. He seems to have learned from his mistakes at the beginning of the crisis. At that time, Netanyahu came under scrutiny for focusing primarily on the annexation while the virus had already been raging in large parts of the country. That course has now been reversed.

Israeli Support and Opposition for Annexation

However, the fact that the annexation has so far not occurred is not solely related to COVID-19 and its impact. Majorities for an annexation scenario lack in Israeli society. In fact, a substantial number of representatives of settlers in the West Bank also oppose the annexation based on President Donald Trump’s peace plan. There reservations are not due to second thoughts regarding Palestinians, but because the current plan includes a Palestinian state – an affront for many Jewish residents in the region.

Moreover, Netanyahu also lacks full backing for the annexation plans in his government coalition. His partner, Blue and White, only wants to participate under certain conditions. Washington is another reason for the lack of progress. Just as Blue and White, one insists on an annexation that does not make a future two-state solution with the Palestinians inconceivable. Netanyahu and many in Likud see it differently. As a result, Israel has not yet been given the green light for annexation from the United States.

Annexation is No Longer a Political Priority

As a result, the topic of annexation in Israel has completely disappeared from the political agenda. And as long as the corona crisis persists, the annexation remains a politically high-risk for Netanyahu.

In the worst case, an annexation could become a boomerang for Netanyahu, since it could make the current handling of the coronavirus pandemic more difficult. The result would be a potential double defeat for Netanyahu and his party, although his reputation has already been severely damaged by many mistakes in the fight against the virus to date.

The Palestinian Perspective

Meanwhile, the Palestinians are confident that the annexation has only been postponed and could come at any time, warns the Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat. He sees Israel’s tactic as “weighing the international community in safety,” he says. He considers the aforementioned different ideas between the US and Israel “tactical” and “nonsense”, as both sides were waiting for the right moment to strike. The annexation was therefore only “a matter of time,” Erekat says.

The answer, therefore, needs to come from the international community in his view, which should be increasing diplomatic pressure on Israel. States such as Germany were right for rejecting the plans but must coerce Israel to end their plans at the same time, Erekat says. Only political and economic coercion can stop Israel’s plans, he concludes.

The Future of West Bank and Jordan Valley Annexation

The annexation is by no means off the table for good but indeed postponed for the time being. Much will depend on how Israel — as well as the US — will cope with the pandemic moving forward. However, should Trump lose the election in November as expected and Joe Biden becomes president, all bets will be off. At the very least, Biden will demand renegotiation on the annexation plans, since he rejects the annexation plans in their current form.

Hence, if Netanyahu seeks to move forward with annexation, he could do so before the election – but with a significant risk of not only doing it unilaterally but by losing all remaining support in Israel.

L'articolo What Happened to Netanyahu’s Annexation Plans? proviene da InsideOver.

The end of the political deadlock that has crippled Israel for almost one and a half years seems to be in sight after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he has managed to form a government.

Past Inability to Form an Israeli Government

The events leading to the formation of the government began soon after the election early this year. Both the Likud and the Blue and White had failed to secure enough seats in the Knesset, therefore making the formation of the government impossible.

Although Benny Gantz’s Blue and White — backed by other leftist parties — had gained a slight majority in the Knesset, divisions among them made it impossible for them to form a government. The participation of the Arab Joint List alliance in any government that was to be formed was particularly resented by other members of the pro-Gantz bloc.

This was because of its sympathy and support for the plight of the Palestinians. In fact Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu had vowed not to participate in any government that would involve the Joint List.

Gantz’s Chance

Owing to the support he had from various political parties, Gantz was given the first chance to form a government within 28 days. But this proved to be mission impossible after two members of his own Blue and White party insisted that they would vote against a government propped up by the Joint List. He, therefore had no other option but to return the mandate to the president.

With no end in sight for the deadlock, there were growing calls for both Netanyahu and Gantz to compromise their political ambitions in order to avoid a fourth election which would require millions of dollars. Furthermore, the dysfunctional Knesset meant that the government was not able to pass its 2020 financial budget to meet its obligations.

For instance, all ministries were only allocated a twelfth of what they had received the previous year per month. This meant long term projects and investment in basic services had to be put on hold .

The lack of annual budget also meant that the government couldn’t address the national budget deficit which had risen drastically to $3.9 billion in 2019, causing a reduction of 1.7% in the amount allocated to ministries in the final quarter of that year.

The fluid political situation was further exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic that was sweeping across Israel. Without a substantive government and key Knesset committees in place, many feared that the raging pandemic posed an even more significant threat to the Israeli public.

Netanyahu’s Reaction to COVID-19

Netanyahu as interim prime minister had reacted to the health crisis by introducing various measures to control the spread of the virus. Among them was the closure of the courts which resulted in his trial being postponed.

His appeal for Gantz to join him in the formation of a unity government to deal with the health crisis was strongly rejected by Blue and White and its allies. Most members of the pro-Gantz bloc — including Gantz himself — were maintaining their stand of not serving in the same government with Netanyahu who was facing criminal charges.
Some members had gone as far as drafting a bill to prevent a person facing criminal charges from forming a government.

But as the coronavirus situation became dire so did the calls for a unity government intensify. The proposal Netanyahu was making to Gantz involved him staying in power for two years as prime minister after which he would step down. The pro Gantz alliance, however, dismissed the proposal terming it as a plot by Netanyahu to outmaneuever them.

Gantz’s Surprise Agreement with Netanyahu

After much back and forth, Gantz agreed to form a unity government with Netanyahu catching most of his political allies by surprise. Many accused him of betrayal by agreeing to work with his opponent after vowing not to do so because of the criminal charges the Likud leader was facing.

This led to do the breakup of the Blue and White alliance which had been led by Gantz since February 2019. Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid and Telem factions led Moshe Ya’alon filed a formal to break away from the alliance leaving Gantz’s to form a unity government with Netanyahu.

According to the deal signed between Netanyahu and Gantz, government positions would be shared equally between their respective factions, with the position of prime minister alternating between them.

Netanyahu would start off as prime minister while Gantz as defense minister. After 18 months the two would swap roles with Gantz taking over as prime minister and Netanyahu as cabinet minister. Each of them would use the title “alternate prime minister” when not serving as prime minister

The government would have 32 ministers, 16 from each wing, before rising to 36 in six months. It will definitely be the most bloated cabinet in Israel’s’ history. “This partly to accommodate the demands of multiple divergent parties within the coalition who have little in common,”  according to the Guardian.

During the first six months of the unity government only legislation related to the coronavirus would be brought to the  Knesset. Any other legislation unrelated to the coronavirus would be brought to the Knesset only after consultation between the two wings.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu was to be allowed to continue with the legislation to annex parts of the occupied West Bank as envisaged in Donald Trump’s peace plan.

A New Unity Government Will be Formed

As a result of this deal, on May 7,2020, Israel president formally gave Prime Minister Netanyahu the mandate to form a unity government. Five days later, Netanyahu in a letter to both Gantz and President Rivlin, announced that he had been able to form a government.

The new government was to be sworn in the following day May 14, but this has now been postponed until Sunday as Netanyahu comes under immense pressure from his allies who feel left out from ministerial positions.
Naftali Bennet the leader of Yamina which stood with Netanyahu during the elections accused him of not making an attempt to include the party in the government.

Despite Netanyahu then offered the party the ministries for education and Jerusalem, Bennet insisted that he could only accept the ministries of transportation and health.

With the discontent over cabinet slots heightening, there are reports that Netanyahu has been pushing for the government to start with the 36 ministers instead of 32, to enable him calm the storm among the disgruntled Likud politicians.

“Those who flattered Netanyahu got jobs and those who are professionals and have done their job well have come up empty,” one Likud minister complained.

Whether Netanyahu will be able to calm the storm before Sunday remains to be seen. However considering that he has managed to overcome the political turmoil of the last 18 months, mollifying the disgruntled Likud politicians won’t be a big task for him.

L'articolo Israeli Political Turmoil Nears its End proviene da InsideOver.

After months of uncertainty, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz announced early Monday evening that both sides had come together for the good of the country and signed a coalition agreement.

Details of the Deal

Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Gantz’s Blue and White party are going to form an emergency government, primarily — according to the official dictum — to deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The agreement carries a peculiarity, however. Netanyahu will initially remain prime minister, while Gantz, who will initially become minister of defense, takes over the office of Netanyahu after 18 months. The agreement was the only way to end a standoff between Netanyahu’s right-religious block and the center-left camp around Gantz, which has kept the country from forming a viable government for more than a year.

“We prevented a fourth election, we will preserve democracy,” while promising that the new government would fight COVID-19 and take care of Israel’s citizens, Gantz tweeted Monday evening. Meanwhile, Netanyahu tweeted that he had promised a national emergency government that would support the lives and livelihoods of its citizens. He would now “continue to do everything for you citizens of Israel.”

What Led to the Deal?

Prior to the agreement, Gantz’s mandate to form a government had expired on Wednesday evening. Israel’s President Rivlin then transferred the mandate to the Knesset. Within three weeks, each MP — including Gantz and Netanyahu — was eligible to secure the support of 61 of the 120 MPs. It was an impossibility and was likely to force Israel to conduct its next election: the fourth since April 2019.

Despite the fact that both parties realized the urge to form a grand coalition in the face of the COVID-19 crisis, nonetheless, the negotiations continued to stall as compromises could not be found. Blue and White continued to increase the pressure, however, by stating that without an agreement, a law would be introduced in Parliament on Monday that would prevent Netanyahu from being commissioned to form the government in the future based on the charges of corruption against him.

The Main Issues at Stake

A central issue in the coalition negotiations was the demand by Netanyahu’s Likud for a veto right to appoint judges. Netanyahu also sought to implement a mechanism that would allow him to circumvent any supreme court ruling stating that he could not serve as prime minister or vice prime minister due to the corruption charges. The latter allows Netanyahu to protect himself for a simple reason: should the Supreme Court ban Netanyahu on the charges of being head of government, Gantz would not automatically become prime minister, but new elections could be called.

However, it is questionable whether this scenario will occur at all since the coalition agreements guarantee Netanyahu considerable influence on the selection of the country’s judiciary. In any case, Netanyahu was able to set the course for the corruption process that is going to begin at the end of May.

West Bank Annexation

It is also part of the coalition agreement that Netanyahu can already annex parts of the occupied Palestinian West Bank in July. Such a step is envisaged for the region in the Trump Administration’s peace plan. Gantz will have no veto right on the question, as the coalition agreement refers to his powers as “consultation.” Nevertheless, a dialogue with the international community will be launched in order to safeguard the security and strategic interests, including “regional stability, preserve existing peace agreements and work towards future peace agreements.”

Gantz had previously rejected a coalition with the Likud party headed by Netanyahu, primarily on charges of corruption. In mid-March, however, Gantz said in parliament, — referring to the Corona crisis — that he would do everything in his power to form a coalition. Since then, critics have accused him of breaking his central campaign promise, submitting without a fight and sneaking his way into a government, as opposition politician Yair Lapid stated about his former ally Gantz.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that after 16 months of permanent political gridlock and three elections without a clear majority, Israel has now formed its new government. However, it is uncertain whether this fragile alliance, formed in the wake of the corona pandemic, can bring political stability in the long term. Nevertheless, a solution was urgently needed amid the crisis, and even if it came with a high price for all parties involved — except for Netanyahu, it would appear.

L'articolo Netanyahu Strikes Deal with Gantz proviene da InsideOver.

Israel’s Blue and White party was formed in the run up to the April 2019 Knesset elections with the aim of defeating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Its formation was necessitated by the need to present a united front in the election by bringing together the centrist parties, primarily Benny Gantz’s Resilience Party, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Moshe Ya’lon’s Telem.

Blue and White’s Core Mission

At its inauguration the alliance described itself as a pluralistic party alliance representing all citizens on the political and religious spectrum of Israeli society. Its name Blue and White is derived from Israel’s national colors, and is colloquially used to portray patriotism.

A manifesto released after Blue and White’s inauguration promised to address “all the essential issues facing the State of Israel and the citizens of Israel … embodying the right of Israeli citizens to live in dignity, security, prosperity and freedom.”

Prior to and after the March 2020 elections Blue and White’s leaders vowed not to serve in the same government as Netanyahu because of the criminal charges facing him. When Netanyahu was indicted Gantz declared, “Netanyahu goes to trial, and we must move forward. Israel’s citizens have a clear choice: a prime minister who will work for them or a prime minister who is preoccupied with himself.”

“No one can run a state and at the same time manage three serious criminal cases for bribery fraud and breach of trust,” Gantz added.

The Pressure to Compromise in the Midst of Electoral Chaos

However, with Israel’s recent third election also ending up in a stalemate, there has been pressure for the leaders to compromise in order to save Israel from another election. Ever since the impasse began in April last year the Israeli government has been unable to carry out key factions as the national parliament — the Knesset — remained dysfunctional.

The emergence of the coronavirus pandemic also compounded the need for a substantive government to tackle the situation. Since Gantz had the support of most political parties, he was entrusted with trying to form a government by president Reuven Rivlin.

However,  any attempts by Gantz to form a minority government were bound to fail for most of parties supporting him resented the participation of the Arab Joint List in any unity government. Gantz himself knew that trying to form a minority government with the support of the Joint List was likely to attract anger among conservatives.

This coupled with the coronavirus emergency, necessitated the need of a unity government that would also involve Netanyahu and his Likud party. But this is was going to be a tough balancing act for the former leader of Israel Defense Forces. He had always promised his supporters not to work with Netanyahu but now the prevailing situation was forcing him to reconsider his stand. To most of his political supporters he would appear as a traitor and a man with no principles

Gantz Denies First Reports of Collaboration to Buy Time

Last week when Netanyahu leaked details about a deal that had been agreed between the Likud and Blue and White, Gantz chose to dismiss it by blaming Netanyahu for dangerous leaks and using threats. It appears that some of his supporters were not aware that the negotiations were at an advanced stage and that Gantz’s denial was only a face-saving tactic.

Most Blue and White members had been strategizing on how to block Netanyahu from participating in a unity government through legislation in the Knesset. To this effect a bill had been brought to parliament to bar anybody facing criminal charges from forming a government. In order to achieve they compelled the pro-Netanyahu Speaker to call for the election for his replacement.

With 61 Knesset members, the pro-Gantz bloc was assured of taking the Speaker’s position and also passing the bill into law. These efforts were being led by Gantz’s running mate in the Blue and White Yair Lapid of the Yesh Taid.

Gantz’s Surprise Move to Become Speaker

But in a surprising twist Gantz submitted his candidature for the position of the speaker, a move that shocked his partners in the Blue and White. Apparently according to sources this was part of the secret agreement between Netanyahu and Gantz as part of the discussion which he had previously denied were taking place.

The initial agreement within the Blue and White was that the speaker should come from the Yesh Atid wing of the alliance. However when the name of Meir Cohen was submitted during negotiations, the Likud rejected it on the grounds that the party was opposed to any government led by Netanyahu.

It was under these circumstances that Gantz found himself as speaker supported by the Likud and his Resilience Party. As speaker he is expected to use his position to continue with negotiations to push legislations that would protect Netanyahu. According to Haaretz he is already in the process of instigating legislation that would allow Netanyahu to serve in government as minister despite his trial.

Indicted Prime Ministers are Barred From Serving

While prime ministers are allowed to continue serving until found guilty, they cannot serve when indicted. Under the new deal that is yet to be finalized, Netanyahu would serve as prime minister while Gantz would serve in the cabinet possibly as deputy prime and Minister of Defense.

After 18 months they would be expected to rotate, with Gantz becoming prime minister and Netanyahu serving as deputy PM and Defense Minister. This is where the challenge lies for Netanyahu who is facing criminal charges and would therefore be barred from serving as deputy prime minister.

It is for this reason that plans to sidestep High Court rulings that bar indicted ministers from serving by redefining the positions of deputy prime minister are at the center of the negotiations. According to Haaretz, Netanyahu and Gantz will promote the legislation in the coming days.

End Result: Bye Bye Blue and White

The result of all these moves is that the Blue and White has now disintegrated. The Yesh Atid and Telem have split away from Gantz’s Isreal Resillience, although Gantz will still technically retain the name Blue and White.

“We formed Blue and White to offer an alternative to the Isreali people. Benny Gntz decided today to break apart Blue and White and crawl into Netanyahu’s government. It’s a disappointing decision,” said Yair Lapid. “What is being formed today isn’t a unity government or an emergency government. It’s another Netanyahu government. Benny Gantz surrendered without a fight and crawled into Netanyahu’s government,” Lapid added.

Moshe Ya’lon the leader of Telem accused Gantz of committing political suicide.

The new government that is expected to be formed by Gantz and Netanyahu is modeled on the unity government between Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir between 1984 and 1988 when the two leaders rotated as prime ministers.

L'articolo Is Israel’s Blue and White Party Finished? proviene da InsideOver.

As Israel’s new political impasse enters its second week after a highly divisive election, a breakthrough seems to be in sight following the endorsement of Benny Gantz by the Arabic Joint List party. The political alliance which is mainly made up of Arab political parties, recommended to President Reuven Rivlin that Gantz be given the mandate to form a government.

Gantz’s Promise

This recommendation resulted in Rivlin officially tasking Gantz with forming a government. While accepting the offer Gantz stated: “I give you my word I will do everything to establish within days, as few as I can, a national government. One that is patriotic and broad as possible.”

The Joint List with its 15 members gives Gantz the much needed boost in forming a government. The Blue and White leader has also received support from former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman of the ultra nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party. In total the pro-Gantz bloc now has a majority of 61 Knesset seats: enough to form a government.

Why is the Joint List Backing Gantz?

However what surprised many was the sudden change of heart by the Joint List politicians to support Gantz despite the deep ideological differences that exist between them. What is clear is that the support is being driven much more by their goal of ousting Benjamin Netanyahu than by any love for Gantz.

The schism between Netanyahu and members of the Joint List stem from the Likud leader’s radical nationalist and religiously hardline policies. Although most leaders of the Joint List are Israelis, they have always been sympathetic to the Palestinian causes apart from fighting for their own rights as Israeli Arabs.

Exacerbating these tensions is Netanyahu’s ongoing incitement of anti-Arab sentiments in his attempts to win right wing support. Last year his official Facebook account was suspended for hate speech over a post that stated that Israel’s Arab politicians “want to destroy us all.”

Joint List’s Past Support for Gantz

It is not the first time the Joint List is endorsing Gantz. Following the September 2019 election the alliance recommended to the president that Gantz should be given the first opportunity to form a government. As Joint List leader Ayman Odeh stated in an op-ed in the New York Times, his party supports Gantz was because “it would create the majority needed to prevent another term for Netanyahu. It should be the end of his political career.”

But despite the 2019 endorsement Gantz refused to give any public comment as the pro-Netanyahu camp heightened its smear campaign against him. Gantz’s real stance on the Joint List has always been murky. This has mainly been influenced by the fear of a backlash from the conservatives who distrust the alliance because of its support for the Palestinians. At the same time for the sake of political expediency and in his attempts to forge political unity he has been very measured in his statements touching on the Joint List.

Gantz: ‘This Incitement Campaign is Inappropriate and Wrong’

Late last year when Netanyahu made a speech in parliament accusing the Joint List members of the Knesset of being terrorists, Gantz stood in opposition to the remarks stating,”I do not accept the incitement that was directed against Knesset members who are his political rivals.” He continued, “In general, I do not accept the incitement that was directed against Arab members of the Knesset who represent a public that is a legitimate part of the State of Israel. This incitement campaign is inappropriate and wrong.”

This moderate stand on the Joint List has often given Netanyahu ammunition to attack Gantz as a terrorist sympathizer. Just after Joint List endorsement in September, Netanyahu issued a statement saying he was seeking to form “a minority government that relies on those who reject Israel as a Jewish state and glorify terrorists who murder our soldiers and civilians.”

Netanyahu’s Angry Denunciation of Gantz: He Supports ‘Arab Politicians Who Want to Destroy Us All’

In fact part of the Facebook post that led to the suspension of Netanyahu’s account rallied his supporters to “prevent the formation of a dangerous left wing government whose Jewish leaders would rely on the support of Arab politicians who want to destroy us all, women, children and men, and enable a nuclear Iran that would wipe us out.”

In the run up to the March 2020 elections because of the concerted efforts by Netanyahu to link him with the Joint List, Gantz declared that he would not accept the support of the group. “I am not afraid to speak to any legitimate political party, but the Joint List will not be part of the government I form,” he said. “My disagreements with its leadership on national and security issues are deep, difficult and unbridgeable.”

By the same token, Joint List leader Ayman Odeh had ruled out supporting Gantz unless he dropped certain elements of Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan, such as the transfer of Arab Israeli to a Palestinian state and the imposition of Isreali sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and areas of the West Bank.

The Joint-List and Gantz Agreement

However the two sides seem to have now dropped their har-line stances in their efforts to remove Netanyahu and to avoid a fourth election. The leaders of the two organizations held a meeting during which Gantz stated that he intends to form a government that serves Jews and Arabs, while Odeh tweeted, “We stick to our goal of replacing Netanyahu’s legacy, and it starts by respecting the united voice of the Arab public and our Jewish partners.”

It remains to be seen how the pro-Gantz political parties will work together in a Gantz-led government. Traditionally the Joint List members have always refused to serve in the government since they feel that would be akin to endorsing Israel’s policies on Palestine. On the other hand, Lieberman who has previously also endorsed Netanyahu, has vowed not to serve in a government with the Joint List. Therefore, the most likely scenario would be for the Joint List to support the government from outside.

L'articolo Why is Israel’s Arab Joint List Party Now Supporting Benny Gantz? proviene da InsideOver.

On March 3 just after polling closed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters went into a frenzy. Exit polls showed the Likud Party and its allies were just one seat short of the number required to form a government. The exit polls predicted a total of 60 seats for the pro-Netanyahu Right-wing and 54 seats for the centre-left bloc leaning towards Benny Gantz.

Netanyahu: ‘The Victory This Time is Sweeter’

“Dear Likud members, citizens of isreal , when the month of Adar begins, joy is increasing. And what a joy we we have tonight. It is a huge victory tonight. My friends we have been marching together for many years now. I remember the victory in 1996, but the victory this time is sweeter,” declared Netanyahu.

In reference to charges of corruption and bribery facing him he said.”We were facing tremendous forces. Our rivals said, ‘the Netanyahu era is over.’ We turned the lemons into lemonade.”

What Victory?

As it turned out, Netanyahu had celebrated too early. Two days later an announcement of final yet unofficial results by the Central Elections Committee placed the number of seats won by the right-wing at 58, two seats below what the exit poll had predicted .

The breakdown of the Pro-Netanyahu bloc was: Likud 36, Shas 9, United Torah Judaism 7 and Yamina 6. The opposition had a total of 62 seats, with Blue and White getting 33 seats, Labor Meretz 7, Yisrael Beiteinu Party 7 and the Joint Arab List 15.

Despite failing to garner the 61 seats needed to form a government, Netanyahu has continued to claim victory, emphasizing that Likud had won the election in a knockout and accusing his opponents of “trying to steal the decision from the masses of Israeli citizens who gave the Likud under his leadership a crushing victory.”

Gantz: ‘The Decision of Voters Must Be Respected’

Netanyahu’s claims have attracted a quick rejoinder from Gantz who warned that “in a democratic country , election results and the decision of the voters must be respected.” Ganz has also accused the Prime Minister of dangerous incitement against him. He pointed out the assassination of prime minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 which he claimed was caused by the incitement of Netanyahu was the serving as the leader of the opposition at that time.

Taking to his Twitter handle he wrote, “Bibi we saw what happened when the incitement was out of control and no one stopped it in 1995. If you think that your threats will stop us you are making a bad mistake. You are only showing how important it is to replace you.”

“If we don’t wake up, the next political assassination is around the corner,” Gantz added.

How Will Israel’s Next Government be Formed?

These mudslinging, accusations and counter accusations will even be more heightened in the coming days as the two leaders position themselves to form a government. In normal circumstances the responsibility of forming the government usually goes to the leader of the party with most number of Knesset seats. But without a clear winner, it will be upon President Reuven Rivlin to choose a leader who will try to form a government.

What happens next is that the election results will be submitted to Rivlin who after consultation with the Knesset , will come up with the name of a leader who will attempt to form a government.

As things stand now the anti Netanyahu coalition has a total of 62 seats , which are enough to enable Gantz to form a government . The only barrier to this is the strong divisions among them. While Avigdor Lieberman now supports Gantz for premiership, he has a very hostile relations with the Joint List which has a total of 15 seats. The Joint List  on the other hand has  insisted that it wont seat in any government with Lieberman.

“We will not allow Lieberman to become a minister .We will not surrender our role as a legitimate group in politics,” Ayman Odeh the party leader said. Part of the disagreement emanates from Lieberman’s support for the transfer of Arab settlements near the Green Line into a future Palestine state.

The party has also urged Benny Gantz to drop the idea of a Jewish majority and the extension of Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria as a precondition of forming any coalition government with him. These clashes of views rules out the possibility of Joint List supporting Gantz. This position is further strengthened by Gantz’s  remarks just before the election that he wouldn’t partner with the Joint List which is predominantly Arab.

Netanyahu’s Options Going Forward

For Netanyahu, one of the options available to him is forming a narrow coalition by attracting defectors from the opposition. His allies are already trying to convince individual defectors from the smaller parties on the center-left. If this fails then he could negotiate with one of the opposition parties especially Yisrael Bietenu to back him. Unfortunately Liberman the party leader has ruled out such a possibility. Instead, according to reliable reports, he will be recommending the name of Gantz to the president and assessing him as the best candidate to form a government.

Perhaps the best way out of the deadlock would be for the formation of a unity government. This will, however, be a very complicated process which is bound to fail. Gantz has ruled out being part of any unity government involving Netanyahu because of the criminal charges facing him. One of the scheme that has been crafted by his allies is for the introduction of a bill barring indicted individuals from serving as prime minister.

The aim of the bill that is being fronted by Blue and White is to block Netanyahu from forming the government and to compel him to join a unity government led by Gantz. According to  sources in Blue and White the bill would not be enacted retroactively, but “would be designed to pressure the Likud party to accept the formation of a unity government” under the conditions of Blue and Whites.

No matter the extent of the negotiations, it will require much more than political alignments for Israel to break out of  the deadlock that has been  running for almost a year now.  Israeli leaders will need to compromise by stepping  down from their hard-line positions and to sacrifice their own political ambitions in order for Israel to move forward.

L'articolo Another Israeli Election, Another Deadlock — What’s Next? proviene da InsideOver.

With just days to go before its third election on March 2, Israel is staring at yet another stalemate as opinions polls indicate that there will be no clear winner. This will be a major blow to embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who had hoped that Trump’s Middle East peace plan would boost his chances of winning.

Current Forecast for Israel’s Upcoming Election

The Channel 13 poll predicted 36 Knesset seats for the Blue and White while is projected to receive Likud 33. The overall bloc of religious and right wing parties supporting Netanyahu was put at 54 while those supporting Benny Gantz was put at 58. Ironically when the respondent were asked on who was best suited to become Prime Minister, 45% supported Netanyahu while 33% were for Gantz

Another poll by Walla news site, also predicted a deadlock with the Likud at 33 and Blue and White at 34. The survey also showed that 54% of the respondents were against a minority government led by Gantz even if it was the only way to stop Israel going to the elections for the first time, while 28% said they would support such a government. Just like in the Channel 13 poll, when the respondent were asked on who was best suited to lead the government, 43% said Netanyahu while 35% were for Gantz.

Troubles Ahead for Gantz

However the better performance of the Blue and White as shown by the opinions polls could be at risk following the decision of Israel prosecutor to open criminal investigations on a company once headed by Gantz. The Fifth Dimension Cybersecurity company is being accused of signing a multi-million deal with Israel police without a public tender.

Although Gantz is not a suspect, he oversaw the company until it went bankrupt. He has, however, denied any wrong doing saying “ It all sounds like political pressure to get this thing on the public agenda. I am totally at ease. This was checked in the past and no criminal suspicion was found.”

Many Leftist commentators have seen the prosecutor’s move as an attempt to harm Gantz campaigns . Among those who are seeking to capitalize on the accusations for political mileage is Netanyahu who declared that the Blue and Whites can no longer talk about clean governance. “Benny Gantz and the Fifth Dimension company he led are the subject of a serious criminal investigation for misleading the police,” he said.

With the elections being just days away this mudslinging could as well help turn the tide against the Blues and Whites under Gantz.New polls released early today by channel 12 and Kan have showed Likud pulling ahead of the Blues and Whites for the first time in what many believe could be as a result of the recent accusations against a company once associated with Gantz.

Polls Are Shifting Daily

According to the poll, Likud went up by 1 digit to 34 , while Blue and White went down to 33. Almost Similar results were projected by Kan poll which showed Likud at 35 and Blue and White at 34.

The Channel 12 poll further showed that a pro-Netanyahu coalition of Likud and right wing parties, would have 57 seats in the Knesset , while a coalition of Blue and White and left wing political parties would give Gantz 50 seats. But the results still show a stalemate since  the required number of seats to form a government is 61.

One way of coming out out of the impasse, would be the formation of a unity government. But forming such a government will be a complex task. Although Gantz has expressed his willingness to form a unity government with Likud , he has maintained that he wouldn’t do so if Netanyahu remains as the Likud party leader.

“He is going to go to trial . Imagine that while he is preparing for trial with a battery of lawyer on important issues from his personal point of view , and then the chief of staff wants to hold a very urgent discussion at night on a matter of security.” Gantz told Channel 13.

Gantz could as well garner enough members to form a government if he accepts the support of the Joint List Alliance which is predominantly Arab. The leader of the Joint List, Ayman Odeh, has committed to offer him support on condition that he denounces certain elements of Israel-Palestine peace plan such as the transfer of Arabs Israeli towns to a Palestinian state. Gantz has however rejected the offer saying “ I will not sit with the joint list and I do not need their support.”

According to the latest opinion polls, by Channel 12 Joint List is likely to get 13 seat in the Knesset. With the same poll predicting 50 seats for Blue and White and its allies, support by the Joint List would push the number seats to 64, three seats more than the 61 required to form a majority government.

Nevertheless with another impasse looming, Netanyahu and Gantz will have to put their personal ambitions aside and put the interest of the country first. For one year now Israel has been without a functioning government. This is likely to continue if no party wins enough votes to form a government.

In such a situation, instead of the country going into a fourth election, Netanyahu will have to step down to allow for the formation of a new government. After all, his corruption trial starts just two weeks after the elections.

L'articolo Stalemate Looms as Israel Prepares for Yet Another Election proviene da InsideOver.

On the first day of the new year, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, formally wrote to the Speaker of the Knesset, to request for immunity from prosecution following his indictment with bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

In his letter, Netanyahu claimed the indictments against him were discriminatory and, dishonest and that legal proceedings against him would cause substantive damage to the functioning of the Knesset and representation of the voting public.

“To continue to lead to great achievements, I intend to approach the speaker of the Knesset in accordance with Chapter 4C of the law, in order to fulfil my right, my duty and my mission to continue to serve you for the future of Israel,” he said in a televised address.

Among those who criticised Netanyahu’s move was his main political rival Benny Gantz who said, “I never imagined that we would see the day that the Prime Minister of Israel would avoid standing before the law and the justice system.”

However, Netanyahu defended his request for immunity saying, “The law is meant to ensure that elected officials can serve the people according to the will of the people.”

So what’s next after Netanyahu’s request?

According to the current system, Netanyahu just like any other member of the Knesset does not enjoy automatic immunity. Instead, should the Prime Minister or any other member of the Knesset be indicted, a request for immunity has to be made through the Knesset House Committee, and the decision presented to the Knesset for a vote.

This is according to the immunity law which states that: “The Knesset will not make such a decision (concerning immunity) unless according to the proposal of the House Committee following a request brought before the committee.”

At the moment, Netanyahu’s request will remain in suspense since there’s no House Committee to consider his request following the dissolution of parliament in September last year.

Some lawmakers had earlier on suggested that the temporary Arrangement Knesset Committee formed after every election should consider Netanyahu’s request. But Knesset’s legal advisor Eyal Yinnon argued that an “Arrangement Committee cannot take on any of the legal powers given to the House Committee, because it is a temporary body with limited mandate.”

The absence of the House Committee also means that Netanyahu’s indictment charges cannot be lodged in the court at Jerusalem.

If a new coalition and a new government are formed after the elections slated for March this year, a House Committee formed as part of the broader coalition negotiations would then consider the request. If the House Committee rejects the request, then its decision would be final.

But if it agrees to grant him immunity, the matter would be presented to the Knesset for a vote. But still, even if Netanyahu is granted immunity, the Attorney General can file indictment again. At the same time Netanyahu could also ask for immunity again. It is a virtual circle.

Many analysts, however, believe that it is highly unlikely that Netanyahu will be granted immunity. This comes hot on the heels of an opinion poll which showed that 51 per cent of Israeli’s respondents opposed immunity while 33 per cent supported it.

Ever since charges against Netanyahu were floated, there have been concerted efforts by him and his allies to protect him from prosecution. In this regard, they had proposed controversial laws which they had hoped to pass in the Knesset.

One of the bills was to restore the immunity law to its previous state before 2005. The former law on immunity gave the Prime Minister and other members of the Knesset automatic immunity from prosecution. Also, in the instance that the attorney general wanted to lift immunity, then he had to make a request to the Knesset House Committee, which would then vote to decide the matter. The committee’s decision would then be ratified by a Knesset vote.

Netanyahu although supporting the bill, was forced to retreat following backlash from leaders across the political divide. Instead, he switched his support towards supporting another controversial bill that was to make it hard for the High Court to overturn legislation passed by the Knesset.

The contentious bill that was to be tabled after the formation of a new right-wing coalition was to give the Knesset the ability to override Supreme Court rulings in case the court realised that the Knesset legislation went against the basic laws of the state. It was said that Netanyahu’s manoeuvring that resulted in a second election was aimed at having the bill passed into law.

But with the second elections also ending without a clear majority, it meant Netanyahu couldn’t garner 61 members required to pass such legislation. It is now too late because legal proceedings have now began, and his only hope is that he wins the next election then get immunity from the House Committee and the Knesset.

L'articolo Netanyahu’s Request for Immunity Explained proviene da InsideOver.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again proved his popularity by decisively winning Likud party primaries held Dec. 27, despite the corruption charges facing him. Netanyahu got 41, 792 votes, which was 72.5 percent of the total votes cast, while Gideon Saar got 15,885 representing 27.5 percent of the total votes.

Following his victory Netanyahu declared, “A huge win!, Thankyou to all members of the Likud for the trust, support and the love. I will lead the Likud to a big win in the upcoming elections, and we will continue to lead the State of Israel to incredible achievement.”

Netanyahu Is Still The King Of Likud

According to Israeli political analyst Mayer Cohen, the landslide victory was proof that Netanyahu has no contender within the Likud despite the corruption charges against him and his failure to form a government twice. Looking at Netanyahu’s popularity, a Gallup poll released in January 2019, found that Netanyahu’s popularity continued to rise despite the controversy surrounding him.

“Even under the shadow of corruption allegations that could end with his indictment, Israel’s long-time leader , Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to remain popular,” explained R.J. Reinhart an analyst and editor of Gallup.com said at that time.

According to the survey which was conducted after news broke out that Israeli police had enough evidence to indict him for bribery, 51 percent of those interviewed expressed confidence in the work Netanyahu was doing as prime minister. The approval ratings were almost similar to the ones he had received in 2017. However despite the high approval ratings, the same survey showed that nearly three in four Israelis, that’s a whopping 73 percent, were of the opinion that corruption was widespread in the government.

Why Do So Many Israelis Still Back Netanyahu?

In essence the message Israelis are expressing is that although they feel Netanyahu’s government has been riddled with corruption they are not ready to abandon him for someone else. Why? It is quite simply because Netanyahu has managed to position himself as the only leader who can protect Israel and has reinforced this by pursuing a close relationship with US President Donald Trump, amplifying the guarantee of US military and security protection for Israel’s expansion. This was evident from Netanyahu’s speech after his last re-election when he declared:

“In the years ahead we will deliver more achievements that could have only have been dreamed of. We will set our final borders: bring about America recognition for Israeli control over the Jordan Valley, the Dead Sea and our sovereignty over every settlement in Judea and Samaria; obtain a defense pact with the US that will ensure Israeli freedom to act; we will defeat Iran and achieve a peace pact with Arab countries,” Netanyahu promised.

In explaining Netanyahu’s characterization of himself as a protector of Israeli journalist Matti Friedman wrote, “he says to Israelis: there’s a room, and In that room are the likes of Putin and Assad and Khamenei. Who do you want in there? A straight shooter who believes in the fundamental goodness of humanity? Or your most wily representative? Many Israelis say yes, the latter. That’s who we want in that room.”

Netanyahu: An Unapologetic Nationalist From A Military Family

Netanyahu’s nationalistic views resonates well with Israel’s right wing who also see him as the only leader who they can trust with their security owing to his family’s military background. The Israeli right have always been a key support base for Netanyahu and he recognized this after his latest victory by stating, “most of the nation supports the right and most of the nation supports me to be Prime Minister. The sweeping victory in the primaries was huge vote of confidence in me and our path.”

According to James Sorene the CEO of the Britain Israel Communication Research Center, and former Head of Communications for UK Deputy Prime Minister, “For Netanyahu’s right wing base the main attraction is the authenticity and veracity of his vision … As an Officer in Israel’s elite Sayeret Matkal Unit, he fought the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) terrorists for years. His brother Yoni’s death in 1976 propelled him onto the public stage as an international anti-terrorist leader.”

In Sorene’s opinion Netanyahu’s support is based on an “Israel consensus that wanted terrorism to end and no longer believed there would be peace with the Palestinians because every territorial concession became a missile launch pad.”

Additional Reasons For Israeli Support Of Netanyahu

Netanyahu has also presided over a booming Israeli economy, further bolstering his support among Israelis. With their security guaranteed the economy became the major concern for most Israelis, who now rank it as their number one priority. Currently, Israeli unemployment rate is close to record lows and the economy has shown solid economic growth throughout Netanyahu’s period in office according to data from the Financial Times.

Between 2003 and 2005 when Netanyahu was Israel’s finance minister he was credited with putting in place measures that shielded Israel’s economy from the impacts of the second Palestinian uprising (Second Intifada) particularly in the West Bank and Gaza strip. Investment, tourism and businesses continued to thrive despite regular attacks.

According to the Financial Times Netanyahu also “halved subsidies for the unemployed and cut child assistance payments, pushing people into the job market. He continued a privatization drive that he had kick started in his first run as Prime Minister in the mid 1990s.The combined impact on revenues and the deficit shielded Israel’s strictly regulated bank from the 2008 financial crisis.”

“It was pure right-wing economics: cutting welfare, privatization, and Israel is still reaping the benefits from bold decisions he made years ago,” Michael Sarel the former chief economist of the Israeli Treasury told the paper.

In summary, Netanyahu’s biographer Pfeffer Anshel says the Israeli leader has been able to enjoy unbridled support because “he has delivered ten years of relative calm and economic prosperity, has a strong right-wing base and a lack of alternatives.”

L'articolo Why Netanyahu Is Still Popular In Israel proviene da InsideOver.