This year hasn’t really been a great year for anyone, but for Tehran it has been extraordinarily bad. Beginning with the assassination of top General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the powerful revolutionary guards, followed by an initial surge in coronavirus cases and then the second wave, the Islamic Republic is under pressure from all sides — geopolitical, economic, health — with an aggressive Washington trying to force it into submission. 

Iran’s Nightmare Scenario: Arab States Allying with Israel

It was in this context the latest agreement known as the Abraham Accord arrived, normalizing diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Unsurprisingly, it was brokered by the US. Of late, Abu Dhabi and other Gulf capitals have become increasingly inclined to partner up with the Jewish state as a means of containing Iran’s regional influence. 

The Abraham Accord was just the beginning. Reports began emerging in the media of other countries in the region soon normalizing relations with Israel. To lobby for that cause, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo embarked on his Middle East tour from Aug 23 to 27, beginning with Jerusalem where in a presser with Netanyahu, Iran was referenced for its “malicious influence”. 

“This is the alliance of the moderates against the radicals, against the – those who use violence and aggression to further their aims against those who believe that we can offer a better people – a better future for our people through cooperation,” the Israeli Prime Minister said of his latest partnership, while taking a clear dig at Iran. 

Pompeo’s Alliance-Building Efforts

In addition to meeting his Emirati counterpart, Pompeo also held discussions with leaders of Sudan, Bahrain and Oman to further rally his cause. Confronting Iran was at the crux of the talks, as the Sunni majority countries in the region feel insecure about Iran’s growing sphere of influence. At the same time, the Trump administration kept the pressure up on the Islamic Republic by trying to trigger snapback sanctions against Tehran, even though the US has already pulled out of the JCPOA. 

While Iran had kept calm as far as the reshaping of regional alliances was concerned, the threat of sanctions did rile it up. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote a 29-page letter to the UN Secretary General, affirming his country’s position that the US has no right to trigger the mechanism given that it withdrew from the nuclear deal. 

“US justifications for its self-abrogated right to the “reapplication of the provisions of terminated resolutions” on Iran have no credibility or legitimacy, and need to be rejected by the Council,” the document read. 

The Current Situation

Washington’s obsession is in trying to corner Tehran could have serious consequences with respect to the country’s nuclear weapons program, as it has previously hinted at enriching uranium. But for now, the United Nations has rejected the US bid and Iran has also been fairly cooperative. In fact, just on August 26, it agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to two sites suspected of carrying out illicit work in the past. 

For now, even the US efforts regarding fresh diplomatic alliances in the region seem to be unsuccessful as Bahrain emphasized its commitment to the Arab Peace of Initiative of 2002 and refused to recognize Israel until there is a solution for Palestinian statehood.

Sudan too excused itself from any such deal with Israel, saying the issue is beyond the mandate of the current transitional government. How permanent their stances are going to be is anyone’s guess since Washington wouldn’t want to throw away the momentum it has already gained.

Until then, Iran hangs on, dodging bullets shot its way while exercising as much restraint as possible.

L'articolo Iran in a Tough Spot as US Cranks Up Diplomatic Pressure proviene da InsideOver.

As July was starting there were two Iran-related developments that went without the proper coverage considering their international importance.

Big Decision by the IAEA

One week ago, the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) supported a motion initiated by the UK, France and Germany opposing Iran’s decision not to allow nuclear inspectors in its territory. This marked the first time EU’s main powers sided with the United States, since the latter pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (commonly known as the Iran deal). This move was considered by pundits and experts as a change in behavior from the EU countries towards Iran. Only Russia and China voted against the motion, which raised “serious concerns” about Iran’s refusal to “cooperate fully.”

Moreover, Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union announced at the end of last week that Iran had triggered a dispute mechanism in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The mechanism is a clause inside the deal through which a complaint regarding a potential violation of the deal could be resolved. According to the deal, the mechanism allows for any disagreement to be resolved withing one month, which could be prolonged if all parties agreed. As the Washington Post reported in January, the UK, France and Germany activated the mechanism at the beginning of the year, when Iran announced that it was no longer bound by limitations on uranium enrichment, as stipulated in the deal. However, they later suspended the mechanism.

Obama’s Weak Deal

The fact that Iran did not allow the IAEA inspectors in its nuclear facilities should not come as a surprise. It all comes down to the weak deal that Barack Obama negotiated in 2015, together with his European allies. The former American President was perhaps the weakest in US history, especially when it came to his foreign policy. Living in a dream world, Barack Obama hoped that even a bad deal would be better than no deal with respect to Iran. He believed that when sanctions had been removed, Iran would join the international community as a partner, giving up its ambitions of becoming a nuclear power.

This line of reasoning made the grave and naïve mistake of considering that Iran would act in good faith and simply abide the rules of the deal. Iran is a sponsor of terror with billions of dollars going to Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. Security experts have linked Iran to terror attacks in five continents. It would be absurd to believe that a weak deal would be enough to restrain it.

Why Was the Iran Deal Bad?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action had three main flaws. It allowed for inspections from nuclear inspectors, but only if Iran were to allow it. So, Iran has to decide which sites are to be inspected and when. It is like suspecting someone has committed a crime and the suspected criminal decides which will be given as proof to the police and when.

Secondly, the deal has an automatic sunset provision, through which most of the restrictions will expire. Since Iran was allowed to keep its nuclear sites and the progress made until 2015, nothing would impede it to resume where it had left, in a decade or so. Thus, the US and its allies were admitting that their attempt to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons were only temporary.

Thirdly, it did not restrict Iran’s ballistic missile program. Indeed, Iran has continued performing missile tests in the years subsequent to the deal coming into effect, including as recent as after the killing of the top Iranian official and declared terrorist, Gen. Qasem Soleimani. Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East and is committed to building a formidable cruise missile force, reaching 2,000 km, which would put many NATO members in Europe within range.

According to Special US envoy Brian Hook, Barack Obama’s nuclear deal significantly weakened prohibitions on uranium enrichment and ballistic missile testing imposed on Iran by UN Security Council Resolutions pushed through by the Bush administration. By pulling out of the deal, Trump simply reverted to the much more effective restrictions in place before 2015.

Giving Iran $150 Billion

In return, Iran was given 150 billion dollars by unfreezing its assets which undoubtedly were used to finance terror related activities. Furthermore, the Heritage Foundation back when the deal was approved, estimated that “the renewed ability to sell more oil on the open market could wind up bringing $300 to 400 billion into the Iranian economy, bolstering the Iranian government”. In this context, Trump was right to pull out of the deal. Iran’s current actions of defiance prove that the deal was easily breakable from the Iranian part, giving more proof to the fact that the mistake was on the European part for sticking to the deal. And that is the root of the problem.

The West is not reacting in a unified way with a common strategy. The deal has been proven to be pointless and even counterproductive. Instead of joining the US’ maximum pressure policy, the EU continued down the unproductive and careless path of appeasement to a theocracy. It is this division between the West and the failing appeasement policy of the EU, together with a terrible deal that have emboldened Iran and explain recent actions.

IAEA: Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stockpile is Growing

In addition, while the EU keeps the worthless deal in place, according to IAEA, Iran’s stockpile of low enriched uranium has grown far above the limit of 300 kilograms stipulated in the nuclear deal, reaching 2,324.9 kilograms. Based on the Institute for Science and International Security analysis, Heritage Foundation reports that the quantity gathered is more than enough to build a nuclear weapon if further enriched, a process that would take three months. Also, these reports show that the number of centrifuges enriching uranium has increased beyond the allowed level under the deal. Therefore, it is obvious why Iran will not allow IAEA inspectors inside the country.

It is an observable pattern that Trump does not like involving America in unnecessary wars. In fact, he is the first President since Gerald Ford not to start a war. However, this does not mean his methods are weak. President Trump believes in peace through strengths. As Heritage points out in their analysis of the President’s policies, Trump uses his rhetoric to scare, confuse and confound his adversaries. This is balanced with back-channel talks and coercive actions.

Europe Needs to Get Real

However, actions by the United States alone are not enough. Not when Iran threatens to escalate its dangerous behavior unless the EU helps it evade US oil and bank sanctions. So, the real problem is Europe. Instead of accepting the offer to work together, the leading countries of the EU are more concerned with bashing Trump. They forget that peace and stability in the Middle East are vital first and foremost for Europe itself more so than for the US. This division created by Europe benefits only Iran, which has chosen the policy of waiting for Trump to finish his term, and possibly have a more sympathetic President in the White House like Joe Biden, who is part of the establishment who allowed the Iran mess to worsen throughout the decades. Iran is more than happy for Europe to continue its appeasement policy, continue enriching its uranium, strengthen its ballistic missiles and wait for a new President in the US.

Meanwhile, as EU leaders appear closer in their thinking to Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement policy with Adolf Hitler, Trump appears to be the smartest player in the field. He is implementing his peace though strength policy, showing his willingness to escalate sanctions to the highest levels. According to an Iranian estimate, US sanctions have cost the country $200 billion. Iran may say it can wait, but the Trump administration is in no hurry for a deal either, being confident in the effectiveness of its policies, as Iran continues to prove it is breaking the deal.

Future Solutions

The only solution going forward is a new more restrictive deal that would permanently and indisputably prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The path towards this is by maintaining the maximum pressure policy, keeping the arms-transfer ban, and for Europe to put an end to the current deal. There are a few subtle hints that at least the UK is getting closer to the US way of thinking and will convince Germany and France as well. It is inevitable that in the future this will happen. However, the sooner it does the better for international stability’s sake. Iran is currently one of the greatest threats to world peace and Europe is preventing the real, decisive and definitive actions that are necessary to solve this problem once and for all.

L'articolo Dealing with Iran: America’s Maximum Pressure vs. EU’s Policy proviene da InsideOver.

Life of an Iranian in Italy is not easy. The economic sanctions imposed by the United States make it almost impossible even to have a bank account. Read the full report here

L'articolo Discrimination in banks proviene da InsideOver.

Iran’s power has historically resided not in its military, economy, or politics, but beyond its borders in proxy militias. By funding and arming groups across the world, from Latin America to Africa, Tehran spreads its influence and power. That influence is at risk of beginning to wane, however, as Iran is slowly losing the ability to keep proxy groups funded.

Soleimani’s Assassination Created a Power Vacuum

This is most evident in Iraq where Iranian-backed proxy militias were expecting payment earlier this year but didn’t receive it, as the Associated Press reported. Instead, the general who replaced Qasem Soleimani arrived in Baghdad with silver rings, not cash. On another visit, Esmail Ghanni was required to apply for a visa, a formality that Soleimani was never subjected to.

In Iraq, militias that once dutifully responded to Tehran’s beck and call are now at risk of slipping from Iran’s control. When Soleimani was in-charge, there was a strongman to keep the groups in line. He commanded respect and Tehran never tried to swindle its way out of paying proxy groups.

Soleimani also boasted a diplomatic nature capable of bridging the gap between rival groups, Iraqi officials said. Critically, the slain general was fluent in Arabic, whereas his successor Ghanni is forced to rely on a translator.

The assassination of Soleimani aligned with a sharp economic downturn in Iran, both designed by Washington. In a sign that the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign is working, Ghanni informed militia leaders in April that there would be no money flowing form Tehran for the near future.

The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — the parent organisation for Iran’s various proxy groups based in Iraq — is paid through the Iraqi government and received $2 billion in the 2019 fiscal year. However, groups count on Iran to give them extra cash which can be as much as $9 million. For smaller groups, this cash is critical to maintaining operations and securing the loyalty and support of members.

Leadership Crisis Snuffs Out Iranian Loyalty

Simultaneous to Iran’s woes, the PMF is undergoing a leadership crisis. Its top leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed alongside Soleimani in the American drone strike in January. 

“With al-Muhandis gone, there is an absence of an anchor around which (PMF) politics revolves,” said Fanar Haddad, an Iraq researcher.

The death of al-Muhandis opened the door for PMF militants to openly challenge what they perceived as pro-Iranian leadership. They often complained that pro-Iranian groups were treated better than Iraq-aligned militias; thus they seized the opportunity to forge their own path.

“Hajj Abu Mahdi made us an official group, it’s the most important thing he did,” said Mohammed al-Mousawi, a PMF commander. For the years ahead, he had planned greater training for fighters, academies and recruitment to improve management, according to al-Mousawi. However, al-Muhandis’ vision died with him, and so too have Iran’s plans to establish regional supremacy via proxy.

Some militants broke away from the PMF forming their own forces. One, the Usbat al-Thairen, allegedly attacked US troops in March. Another four groups decided they would no longer answer to the PMF, instead choosing to listen to Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

“They are basically saying we do not want an organ that takes its orders from Iran,” said Randa Slim, director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program at the Middle East Institute.

Turkey and Russia Stand to Benefit

For Iran, the development in Iraq could not come at a worse time. It arguably would have happened without the economic turmoil; Soleimani and al-Muhandis were integral in keeping Iraq-based proxy militias aligned with the common goal of supporting Tehran’s interest. Without them, the groups would have faced a problem of leadership regardless of Iran’s economic situation.

However, lacking funds to pay them puts Tehran in an unfamiliar position. For decades it has cultivated militants and spread its message far and wide to recruit volunteers. For the most part, Iran has been widely successful with this strategy. To make it continue to work though, it demands funding to secure loyalties or at bare minimum, strong leadership to explain why the funds are temporarily delayed.

Right now, Iran has neither and this threatens Tehran’s regional influence at a time when Turkey and Russia are making gains. With the US pulled out of Syria and soon Iraq and Afghanistan, the major power broker is leaving the region. Iran’s tactics are not like those of Russia and Turkey. It doesn’t send its troops on excursions into neighboring states. Instead, it consumes them from within through proxy groups.

Without them, Tehran is powerless to influence its neighboring states. Instead, groups will begin to fall in line with their own governments or simply become rogue militias with their own agendas. In Tehran’s place, Ankara and Moscow will predominately guide Middle Eastern policy.

Iran could never be expected to entirely retreat from the world stage or abandon its strategy of growing proxies worldwide. The struggles it now faces could be only temporary. If American presidential candidate Joe Biden wins the election in November, Washington may take a softer stance on Tehran, thus enabling money to once again flow to proxy groups.

In the interim, however, groups will slowly slip from Tehran’s grasp as its power and ability to fund them wanes.

L'articolo Iran’s Power Wanes as it is Unable to Pay Militias proviene da InsideOver.

Many Italian banks are now closing the accounts of Iranian citizens after having made it very difficult to open them. Sometimes without giving any real justification, at others openly explaining that because of their nationality they prefer not to have them as clients. To avoid problems with the U.S. authorities.

This is not an oversight caused by the lockdown or an incorrect interpretation of the preventive measures adopted for the pandemic, but a practice in place for some time. When Ramin Moradi arrived in Rome in 2017, with a scholarship to conduct research in the field of low-temperature energy recovery systems from waste, he was delighted to be able to continue his career in Italy. He never imagined that the shadow of international sanctions against Iran could ever affect over a student officially invited to our country as a PhD student in Energy and Environment at La Sapienza University in Rome.

“At first I was enthusiastic about the prospect of​​ a new experience of life here,” said Ramin during an interview with InsideOver. “It was a great opportunity to continue my career in a European city. Then I found the banks were unwilling to let me open an account, and for no particular reason.” Needing a bank account to receive his monthly salary, as required by the scholarship, Ramin started trekking from bank to bank, from one branch to another. “This is how I discovered Rome. If you ask me about a monument in the city, I could tell you which bank is nearest to it!” 

International sanctions and the Italian scenario

The embargo against Iran was brought in immediately after the Islamic Revolution in 1979. It was adopted by the United States following the attack on its embassy. The international community and the UN then added a series of economic sanctions, with a further crackdown over the last 15 years in response to the “non-suspension” of the Iranian nuclear program. This affected not only arms exports and nuclear technology, but all sectors, from food to medicine, medical technologies and bank accounts.

According to Istat, 12,500 Iranian citizens are resident in Italy. The number is much higher if you consider those in Italy for study or work. Many of them were officially invited to Italy and this makes their story even more paradoxical. Ramin Moradi’s story sounds like the beginning of a joke, but it has a bitter ending. “I saw it with my own eyes in one of those banks. There were three of us, all students. I was from Iran, the second was from Pakistan and the third from India,” he explains. “They took our passports, opened the accounts for the other two and turned down my application. The clerk told me it was because of my nationality and that the bank was not interested in working with Iranians.”

In recent years, some of the major European and Italian banks have had to pay fines of hundreds of millions of dollars to the United States for alleged violations of international sanctions against Iran. This explains their reluctance to open current accounts and establish working relationships with Iranian clients.

Between published studies and cash at home

After weeks of unsuccessful attempts and now in despair, Ramin finally succeeded in his efforts to open a bank account, albeit with a very low limit on transactions. So every month, with one eye on the calendar, he had to withdraw money and make room for the university’s bank transfer, keeping the cash at home. Meanwhile he continued his prolific research, publishing scientific articles entitled “Optimising a solar air generator with phase-change materials” (2017), “Analysis of a micro-cogeneration system consisting of a steam injected gas turbine powered by Syngas and integrated with the organic Rankine cycle” (2019), and the more recent “Integration of biomass gasification with a micro-gas turbine with steam injection and an organic Rankine cycle unit for the combined production of heat and energy” (2020).

After more than two years of outstanding results and great hardships, Ramin tried to change his current account so as to no longer be subject to the same limits, since he had to go to the United Kingdom for a mobility plan entailed by his PhD and after winning an academic award. To than end he made an appointment with the bank, but after waiting ten days, he saw things go from bad to worse. He account was closed, his credit card cut in two and he was handed a cheque for the cash balance.

Discriminating indiscriminately

Even during the global emergency due to the spread of coronavirus, the hostilities between the American and Iranian administrations have failed to bring about a truce.

The current economic crisis is exacerbating the hardships already caused by American sanctions, putting the lives of Iranian citizens , as well as respect for their fundamental rights even more at risk, even in Italy. Before closing accounts, banks are meant to carry out extensive checks into the account holders’ activities. But since this is troublesome and entails various costs, most of them prefer to close such accounts summarily, without making any distinctions and in a particularly discriminatory context. Many Iranian citizens have tried to raise these issues through protests on social media, comments in forums and letters to the press. Most of them are ignored amid general indifference. “I’ve suffered from severe discrimination because of my nationality in Italy, which is a member of the European Union,” concludes Ramin. “I expected  my civil rights to be better respected here. The university invited me, but unfortunately society is not ready. Perhaps they should avoid bringing students here, it might all be much simpler.”

L'articolo Discrimination in Banks proviene da InsideOver.

The scourge of the novel coronavirus is showing no signs of deceleration, and has put billions of people under lockdown, breaking the wheel of global economic activity. The virus has been particularly harsh towards Iran, infecting more than 44,000 people and killing close to 2,900, making Iran the seventh-most affected in terms of total cases and sixth in number of deaths. 

Iran’s Economic Suffering is Also Enormous

In addition to these tragic human costs, Iran has suffered a serious blow to its economy as it struggles to deal with the negative consequences of shutdowns. Already under the weight of the US sanctions which have strangled Tehran’s jugular vein – energy exports – the country’s problems are now being compounded by the coronavirus outbreak. 

Since becoming one of the epicenters of the coronavirus, most of Iran’s neighbors – Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan – shut their land borders, thus disrupting much of their bilateral trade ties with Iran. To make matters worse, an almost complete halt of religious tourism has further dented one of the core industries of the Islamic Republic. 

The Geopolitical Dimension

While the macroeconomic impact of the current situation will become clearer in a few months, it is likely to spill over into other areas, particularly the geopolitical sphere. Being a major player in the regional proxy wars, Iran for years has channeled vast sums of resources to protect its interests beyond borders. From supplying arms to favored groups in Yemen to overtly managing the government in Baghdad, Tehran has been one of the most active states in the Middle Eastern battleground.

However, all of that force projection requires financial muscle, something Iran barely has anymore

Its oil export volume was already dwindling as most of the key buyers were forced to redirect their imports due to the pressure of sanctions and now the Saudi output increase has brought down fuel prices to record lows, further tightening the primary source of government revenues. 

Tehran Shows No Signs of Backing Down Geopolitically

But so far, Tehran hasn’t shown any willingness to bend with Foreign Minister Javed Zarif going on a Twitter spat against the United States. He posted on Mar 26: “#Covid19 ravages the world, sparing no nation. Even the world’s largest economy needs others to help it fight the pandemic, yet refuses to halt its #EconomicTerrorism against Iran. Does the US want a ‘forever pandemic’? Moral imperative to stop observing the bully’s sanctions.”

Khamenei too played the same war of words during his Nowruz speech, calling the US the most malicious and hostile of his nation’s enemies. Beyond rhetoric too, recent developments in the region suggest Iran doesn’t plan to apply the brakes. In fact, just this Saturday, the Tehran-backed Houthis launched rockets into Riyadh and another city, which comes less than a month after them seizing control of Al Jawf and advancing to the oil-rich province Marib close to the Saudi Arabian border. 

The situation has been no different in Iraq either, where there has been an uptick in terms of attacks at the US bases. Anadolu Agency reported on Tuesday that two rockets were intercepted near the Ain Al-Assad base. This comes two weeks after strikes at the Taji military camp killed two Americans and one Briton, which Washington blamed on Kataib Hezbollah — a Tehran-backed group. It also coincides with the US scaling down presence in Iraq as just this month,  it pulled out of three bases. 

How Long Can Iran Continue On This Path?

The question then is, how long can the Islamic Republic go on like this? The health crisis is not slowing down, with thousands of new cases being reported daily while the global recession poses further threat to an already heavily-sanctioned economy. On the other hand, arch-rival Saudi Arabia has been largely successful throughout, with only 1,720 infections recorded and 16 deaths from coronavirus. Thanks to better connected markets, Saudi Arabia likely to sail through the storm more efficiently, tilting the regional balance of power in favor of Riyadh over Tehran.

However, Iran’s economic woes go way back and if anything, the country has learned to make up for its lack of resources, especially by leveraging sectarian sympathies from Shiite populations across the Middle East. Though it remains a test as to how effectively Iran can cash in on that pro-Tehran sentiment without sufficient funding and arms.

L'articolo Will Covid-19 Mellow Down Iran’s Foreign Policy? proviene da InsideOver.

Battling sanctions, the threat of regional powers and the coronavirus, Iran is currently at the center of a crisis that’s unfolding across the world but affecting it the most. The coronavirus which made its way through China has resulted in the deaths of at least 2,517 people in Iran as of March 28.

Iran’s Coronavirus Crisis

The first Iranian case of the coronavirus was reported in February in the city of Qom. Since then, the city has become the epicenter of the virus in the Middle East. The devastating impact that the virus has brought to the country can be seen as the country is now in a lockdown with schools, universities, markets and all public spaces closed to prevent the further spread of the virus. However, one stark issue that is visible is the fact that the government has refused to quarantine entire cities and intercity traffic continues to flow. Flights to China, where the outbreak first began are also not canceled — putting the lives of millions of Iranians at risk.

The Coronavirus Has Hit Iran Especially Hard

With many prominent political figures having contracted the coronavirus in Iran it gives on pause and the urge to determine what went wrong. The virus claimed the life of Mohammad Mirmohammadi, a close aide of Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and a member of the expediency council. Furthermore, it has also put in jeopardy the stability of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as the virus claimed the life of General Nasser Shabani, a senior commander with over 35 years of experience.

What remains behind are people languishing in quarantine, missing out on Norouz celebrations and longing for the desire to meet loved ones. One virus managed to do what no sanctions or pressure campaigns could. On March 22, the Iranian government announced that over 33 million have taken the test for the coronavirus. Despite these staggering figures, there remain cases which haven’t been detected yet and there are still numerous people who have gone on feeling unwell for days without getting tested.

Iran’s Anti-Coronavirus Measures

A brief description of the outlook in Iran paints a clearer picture. All religious sites of worship have been closed indefinitely. The Revolutionary Guard Corps have been asked to take to the streets to monitor the situation and to tackle any shortcomings. Furthermore, the Special Forces have also been given the task to disinfect all spaces to contain the drastic effects of the virus.

However, there’s one thing which comes to everyone’s minds. Why is Iran in this position in the first place? The simple answer is that it is mainly due to the American sanctions imposed on the country. Iran’s Foreign Minister says the healthcare sector has been depleted of resources due to American actions. He says the sanctions have depleted the country of its economic resources. Was the virus’ rapid growth also due the late response on behalf of the government or were people carelessly moving around? This debate is another story because for now the damage has been done.

Khamenei: Coronavirus is a Targeted Genetic Bioweapon Designed to Kill Iranians

The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei earlier refused American assistance, saying that the virus was designed by the United States in the first place after years of researching Iranian genetics. He went on to say, “I do not know how real this accusation is but when it exists, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medication?” The response by Iran’s Supreme Leader came after President Donald Trump said that the United States was willing to offer any assistance to Iran and a great team would be at their service if they asked for help.

Tensions between the US and Iran have continued to rise since Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018. This led to Iran enriching its nuclear capabilities and tighter US sanctions. It reached boiling point earlier this year in January when Iranian-backed militias responded by attacking American bases in Iraq following the killing of top commander Qasem Soleimani in an American drone strike.

Coronavirus is Now Affecting All 31 Provinces of Iran

Iran’s Supreme Leader who runs the show in the country says his nation has the capability to defeat and overcome any sort of crisis but President Hassan Rouhani appealed this week to the United States and other international leaders to assist. It can clearly be witnessed that Iran will not be able to cope on its own to overcome the disease which has now spread to all 31 provinces. So far, assistance has poured in for the country with the UAE, Turkey, Azerbaijan, France, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Qatar and Russia coming to help with donations.

Doctors Without Borders has also pledged support in terms of an inflatable hospital and masks while the World Health Organization is currently in constant contact with those in Iran says the country’s ambassador to the United Nations Majid Takht-Ravanchi. An unlikely situation also developed just recently, where reports emerged that the United States has waived off sanctions for certain countries while dealing with Iran so that it will be possible for them to distribute the basic medical supplies to Iran. However, that report was denied by the Trump Administration which said there was no deal on the table regarding the matter.

Desperate Iranians are also Dying From Trying to Self-Medicate with Dangerous Products

As Iran struggles to cope with the daily deaths and numerous problems that it faces on a daily scale, this week around 400 people also lost their lives after ingesting methanol or cheap alcohol which they believed would cure them from the coronavirus. At this point in time there are many vulnerable people in the country who are in dire need of basic supplies. The European Union, if it does not take measures and if the Americans don’t remove sanctions then it can easily be said that they will be held responsible for those who were killed.

While Iran’s battle against the virus continues on a large scale, it has also asked the IMF for a funding of $5 billion. Iran currently needs respirators, nebulizers, masks and other protective equipment to face the battle that it is in. While the Trump Administration is adamant on not waiving off sanctions, some Democrats including Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders have called on Trump to waive the sanctions to save the lives of millions of people across the country.

Iran will have to struggle deeply in the coming days and weeks, but hope must not be lost. Rouhani has allocated around $3 billion, which will be paid to businesses which have collapsed, to unemployment funds and to low-income families. The damage being suffered in this battle is real and the countermeasures also need to be comprehensive in order for Iran to reclaim some of what it has already lost in this war and minimize the lives that will be lost in the coming days and weeks.

L'articolo Iran’s Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory and the Refusal to Accept American Assistance proviene da InsideOver.

As the coronavirus spreads beyond China and has already claimed more than 2,700 lives and infected in excess of 78,000 people, worries are increasing about whether the outbreak has become a pandemic and how it can be prevented and treated.

Coronavirus: a Global Infection

Cases of coronavirus have been confirmed as far as the United States and Australia, involving over 82,000 people and more cases keep being identified with each passing day. In response, flights have been cancelled, airports equipped with screeners and cargo ships stranded, creating panic and economic upheaval. There are already numerous worrisome reports projecting extent of economic impact the virus is going to have on global growth as trade is slowing down, adding to the woes of the business community. 

Iran Has Been Hit Hard by Coronavirus

Iran — which confirmed its first two cases of the virus on Feb 18 – has taken center stage in this outbreak, reporting the third highest number of infected patients outside China, only after South Korea and Italy. In terms of the casualties, it ranks second globally with 27 deaths – which many believe to be understated, suggesting the highest mortality rate among majorly affected countries at some 11%. In comparison, China’s mortality from coronavirus is about 3.5%, Italy’s 2.6% and South Korea’s 0.74%. Even its deputy health minister wasn’t immune from the disease and as per latest reports, the vice president has tested positive too. 

This has not only raised questions over the effectiveness – or the lack thereof – of the Islamic Republic in dealing with endemic, but has also seriously shaken the country’s struggling economy. Already gripped by heavy US sanctions after US President Donald Trump’s revocation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Tehran has been in serious trouble lately as its oil exports have been cut down and businesses targeted. Consequently, the expected GDP growth rate has gone to negative 9.5% while annual inflation is estimated to be 20%, prompting citizens in November 2019 to stage demonstrations against the government after fuel prices were raised.

Iran’s Land Borders are Also Shut Down, Further Impacting Trade

All of Iran’s economic struggles have been made worse since coronavirus spread in the country. By Feb 24, most of its neighbors closed land borders, thus impacting the trade flows. This included Iraq, Afghanistan and Turkey: Iran’s second, fourth and fifth largest export destinations respectively, accounting for $11.3 billion of goods sold in the 10 months leading up to January of 2020.

Meanwhile, Iran’s largest trading partner – on which it has increasingly relied for oil exports since the imposition of sanctions – China, is itself grappling with the outbreak thus affecting cargoes to the country as well.

Similarly, the United Arab Emirates stopped all its flights – passenger and cargo – to and from Iran on Feb. 25 and then two days later, suspended passenger services with the Islamic Republic as well. The two countries trade some $15 billion of goods annually and the UAE is a major destination for rerouting Iranian products, which are often covered by international sanctions. 

Unsurprisingly, Tehran’s trade has already been hit badly. The extent of the damage will only be known once the data for ongoing month comes out. But the impact caused by coronavirus goes beyond exports and imports. Even the local supply chains have been disrupted as some restrictions have been applied on domestic movement of people inside Iran.

A Blow to Religious Tourism

Another area where the outbreak is already showing adverse effects is Iran’s religious tourism industry. Home to a number of holy sites, the Islamic Republic hosts as many as 8 million visitors a year of which a majority are Shiite pilgrims. 

The shutting of borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan has stopped devotees from the two countries with significant Shiite populations to enter Iran, dealing a major blow to the local economy especially in cities like Qom, Najaf and Mashhad which are dependent on religious tourism. 

Even the local tour industry operating on outbound travel isn’t safe as Saudi Arabia banned Iranian pilgrims while Russia has also put a halt on flights to and from the Islamic Republic.

Amplifying the troubles, the outbreak coincides with Iran’s blacklisting by the Financial Action Task Force which would discourage companies and banks to deal with the already sanctions-stricken country. The two factors combined brought rial to a year-low against the dollar at 158,000 on Feb 26. 

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The global anti-money laundering and terror financing watchdog the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has blacklisted Iran for its failure to comply with the international anti-terrorism financing rules. The FATF blacklisting will worsen Tehran’s isolation from the international financial markets while it is already reeling from sanctions. The designation is also likely to cause further social unrest in the country already suffering from the US-Western trade and economic strangulation.

What Does it Mean to be on the FATF Blacklist?

The word blacklist is used by media agencies as an alternative for “High-Risk Jurisdictions”. The FATF defines these jurisdictions as countries with “significant strategic deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.”

The FATF advises all of its members to exercise enhanced due diligence to protect the international financial system from the ongoing money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing (ML/TF/PF) risks emanating from the high-risk countries.

Why Was Iran Blacklisted?

Iran has failed to follow through on the action plan proposed by the FATF. Iran officially committed to address its strategic deficiencies. Subsequently, it was asked to implement an action plan with a deadline in January, 2018. The watchdog has reported that Tehran has failed on multiple fronts including the need for increasing supervisory examination of the country’s financial institutions including its branches and subsidiaries.

The watchdog further said that Iran has also failed at introducing enhanced relevant reporting mechanisms or systematic reporting of financial transactions. But Iran’s failure to ensure checks on the financial system has become increasingly difficult amid the ongoing sanctions as it skirts away from traditional markets through illegal trade to sell crude in Afghanistan, Syria and Central Asian markets.

Iran also failed to increase external audit requirements for the financial groups operating within its territory especially with respect to their subsidiaries.

What does it mean for Iran’s economy?

Iran’s economy has already suffered heavily due to sanctions imposed by the international community over its nuclear program. The country’s growth rate fell to negative nine per cent in 2019.

During the brief period that followed the signing of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) between China, Europe, Russia and the United States and Iran helped push up oil production to two million barbells per day. But that fell to 300,000-500,000 barrels per day after US President Donald Trump pulled out of the plan re-imposing sanctions on country’s energy, shipping and financial sectors drying up foreign investment and hitting oil exports. The sanctions hit the Iranian economy hard, causing social unrest among some sectors.

With the absence of exports, Iran has powered domestic growth with local consumption. The manufacturing sector especially automobiles, metals and plastics sectors accounts for nearly one-fifth of the country’s total employment. Given its long experience with sanctions, Iran has found novel ways to skirt past international blockades.

But blacklisting will further increase pressures on the foreign banks and businesses dealing with Tehran resulting in tougher scrutiny of transactions. The blacklisting will translate in to higher costs of borrowing for Tehran and subsequently isolate the country from international financial system.

How has Iran Reacted?

Iran’s Central Bank Head Abdolnasser Hemmati said the blacklisting will have no impact on the country’s foreign trade. “The decision is politically motivated and not a technical decision … I can assure our nation that it will have no impact on Iran’s foreign trade and the stability of our exchange rate,” he said.

But the country’s residents are protesting regularly over the rising inflation, high unemployment and declining economic output. Iran has responded to sanctions by discontinuing subsidies on energy prices.The result was a series of country-wide uprising against government policies seeking to overthrow the government. The social unrest has become a regular feature in the country as similar wave of protests were seen during the 2018-19.

If another episode similar to the ones in the past follows after this FATF blacklisting, it could spell trouble for the winners of Friday’s Iranian parliamentary elections.

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After Iran hit Iraqi-military bases that housed US troops in retaliation of the death of their top general, the US President Donald Trump announced new sanctions against the crumbling Iran’s economy and officials. For now, it was an end to a possible military confrontation between the two countries, but it seems that both go to a shadow war across the region, as they did for 40 years.

The Middle Eastern region has been largely the main shadow battleground between the United States and Iran and Iranian proxy forces. The sandwiched country between the Middle East and South Asia, Afghanistan may turn into another shadow battleground between the United States and Iran, amid peace efforts to end 18-year long insurgency in the country.

The United States has been the strategic partner of Afghanistan for 18 years and helped the country to build national institutions from the ashes of civil war in the 1990s, from the military to judicial. On the other hand, Afghanistan shares borders and long complicated and extensive political, social, and economic ties with Iran.

“The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan assures the people and its neighbors that, according to the security agreement with the United States, the territory of Afghanistan in no circumstances will be used against another country,” said President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan in a statement days between the death of top Iranian general and missile strikes into Iraqi military bases.

As the tension between the United States and Iran drags on, the US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad met in silence with the Taliban representatives, discussing reduction of violence and ceasefire to reach an agreement for peace in Afghanistan and withdrawal of US troops. Afghans fear that US-Iran tension hurt the chance of peace for Afghanistan.

“Iran has refused to join the regional and international consensus for peace, and is, in fact, actively working to under the peace process by continuing its long global effort to support militant groups there [in Afghanistan],” said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at a State Department news conference. “Taliban’s entanglement in Iran’s dirty work will only harm the Afghanistan peace process.”

Over 18 years that the United States poured in millions of dollars and deployed nearly a million US troops in Afghanistan, while Iran cultivates connection with elements within the Taliban group. US and Afghan officials accused Iran of arming the Taliban group, a charge Iran denied. In addition, Iran recruited, trained, and paid thousands of Afghan Shiites to fight for Iran in the Syrian war under the division of Fatimyoun.

The influence of Iran in Afghanistan came to light when US killed Qaseem Suleimani, head of Iran’s Quds force. Ex-President Hamid Karzai, who was saved by US Special Forces for years and was backed in power for 13 years, condemned the strike against Suleimani and named him as a “man of dignity.” Former National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar, the official who signed the strategic security agreement with the United States, called Suleimani as a “martyr.”

Photos of Afghan ambassador to Iran circulated on social media showing him in the funeral of Suleimani in Tehran. At least two Afghan politicians were seen at the funeral of Suleimani in Tehran. Abdullah Abdullah, the chief executive of the United States backed and brokered government, went to the Iranian embassy in Kabul to pay his tribute and to sign a memorial book on Suleimani.

“We expect an escalation of tech-Mil support [for the Taliban] by the Iranian regime plus the potential deployment of Fatimyun bridge on the Afghan battlefields this coming fight season [spring is usually the start of insurgency season],” said Tamim Asey, former deputy for Afghan defense minister. “Time and this coming fighting season will tell.”

The New York Times reported that the United States “air assets in Afghanistan have repeatedly come up in discussions over a potential response to Iran, though the top United States commander in Afghanistan has urged caution about such plans.”

Turning Afghanistan into a battlefield might be too costly for both the United States and Iran. The United States have already been fighting an endemic insurgency in the country with the Afghan government is entangled with widespread combat with the Taliban group across the country. Iran, meanwhile, fights and supports proxy forces across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Yemen.

“If Iran escalates its proxy war through Taliban and Fatimyun, they will be the biggest losers themselves,” said Tamim Asey. “It essentially amounts to shooting themselves in the front i.e. opening two fronts in both western [Iraq] and eastern borders [Afghanistan].”

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