Sergey Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, was in Washington last week for meetings with US President Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo, his secretary of state. Lavrov’s visit at The White House came as the House of Representatives concluded its impeachment hearings primarily centered on evidence the American leader attempted to extort a political favor from Ukraine by holding up foreign aid. Considering the 2016 allegations of collusion, the pending impeachment vote, and the upcoming elections, Lavrov’s visit to the US raised eyebrows. The two nations understandably have other issues to discuss outside of US domestic politics, but if there was any concern of a Kremlin official meeting Trump, it was amplified when both sides recalled the subjects of their discussion.

Two Tales

Whereas Pompeo and The White House insisted Trump personally “warned against any Russian attempts to interfere” in the 2020 presidential election, Lavrov denied elections were discussed at all.

“I will leave to the White House to give the details of what is said. I never talk about what the President says in those private settings, but I can tell you that Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement is not accurately a reflection of my recollection of that meeting,” Pompeo countered. “[T]here is no mistake that President Trump made clear in the meeting that he had with Foreign Minister Lavrov and the rest of the Russian team that was there that President Trump personally, and America, finds their meddling in our elections unacceptable in the very same way that I had said it earlier to Foreign Minister Lavrov.”

Lavrov not only denied the conversation took place, but also took umbrage with the notion that The Kremlin even interfered in the election. In denying this basic premise, he argued there are no facts to support the argument Russia meddled in the election, which was well-documented in Mueller’s 500-page report. Furthermore, Lavrov stated that because of the undue focus on the “alleged” interference, other work between Russia and the US has been inhibited. These topics include nuclear arms control and weapons shipments to Libya.

Unrestricted

In February, the Trump administration announced the US would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. The agreement was a landmark deal when it was signed at the end of 1987 as it heralded the beginning of the end of the Cold War. The INF forbid both nations from possessing land-based missiles and launchers with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometres. Consequently, the two states drastically reduced their stockpiles.

Former US President Barack Obama negotiated the New START treaty, a followup to the 1991 START I agreement. Like the INF, New START placed limits on the nuclear programs, capping the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550. It also placed limits on missile launcher systems and heavy bombers.

Trump has signaled his intention not to renew the New START treaty, which expires in 2021. Complicating matters further, the treaty expires on Feb. 5, 2021, leaving no time for Trump’s successor to broker an extension or work a new deal, if Trump is defeated in the election. Since the American president has chosen not to renew the treaty or work toward a new one, it seems the US and Russia will be without an agreement for the first time in over three decades.

Although Russia is willing to extend it, Trump is refusing because he wants to see China added to the deal. China’s nuclear arsenal is comparatively small, but experts estimated it will double its stockpile over the next 10 years. China is not a member to any nuclear treaty and, as Lavrov declared, Beijing is uninterested.

Hinging a critical nuclear deal such as New START on a condition beyond Moscow’s control is unreasonable. Nuclear arms cannot be left to irrational demands especially when the other party is powerless to fulfill them.

Libya Embargo

On Libya, Pompeo called for a peaceful solution in coordination with The Kremlin to limit the weapon flow. Libya has been in a state of civil war since April when General Khalifa Haftar, a Gaddafi holdover, began a campaign to take control of the government. Washington has evidence Haftar’s Libyan National Army is supplied by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia.

“We want to work with the Russians to get to the negotiating table, have a series of conversations that ultimately lead to a disposition that creates what the UN has been trying to do,” Pompeo said. “Foreign Minister Lavrov told me directly yesterday he is prepared to be part of that, to continue it. I reminded him that there is a weapons embargo that is still in place in Libya, and that no nation ought to be providing incremental materiel inside of Libya.”

The US and Russia often find themselves on different sides when it comes to the Middle East and North Africa, particularly under Trump as the US has attempted to extricate itself from the regions. The US still looks to put its weight behind international affairs, however, and Trump has publicly called on Haftar to end his campaign. As in Yemen, when outside powers invest resources for war, conflict becomes difficult to stop. In the case of Russia, there are few options that will not risk an international incident except harsh words during an Oval Office visit.

L'articolo Lavrov Visits Trump and Pompeo but Contradicts Their Story proviene da InsideOver.

Only two weeks after the United States pulled out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, it already tested a new land-based missile which prompted a response from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Following the American missile test, Putin directed his government to coordinate a “symmetric response.” 

No Treaty, More Missiles

“Considering the newly emerging circumstances, I instruct the Defense Ministry, the Foreign Ministry and other specialized agencies to analyze the level of the threat, which the above-mentioned U.S. moves are creating for our country, and take comprehensive measures for preparing a symmetric response,” Putin said while meeting with his national security advisors. 

The U.S. missile was a variant of the Tomahawk cruise missile which was originally developed in the 1970s. When the INF went into effect, the American military ceased using ground-based launchers for the Tomahawk leaving only the U.S. Navy’s sea launch systems in use. Putin argued that the occurrence of both events – the INF withdrawal and the testing of the ground-based missile – indicates that the U.S. had been preparing for the new missile since before it scrapped the treaty. 

“The Americans have tested this missile too quickly after having withdrawn from the treaty,” he said. “That gives us strong reason to believe that they had started work to adapt the sea-launched missile long before they began looking for excuses to opt out of the treaty.”

The rush back to previously-banned weapons signals the end to a decades-long period in which both countries largely scaled back their weapons development and shed large amounts of their nuclear arsenals. The idea put forward by Moscow that the move to reinitiate development and testing of intermediate-range missiles was plotted before exiting the INF treaty would help explain Washington’s eagerness to do so. U.S. President Donald Trump has never been fond of international treaties which he views as handcuffing the U.S. 

Close to Home

The testing of the new Tomahawk – which successfully hit its target 310 miles off California coast – could have broad implications for Russian security in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Putin argued that the launcher used for the test run was startlingly similar to one currently deployed at an American military location in Romania. This site and one like it in Poland could eventually host the new missiles, a prospect which would have been inconceivable when the INF treaty was in effect.

According to Washington, the new missile systems will first be stationed in East Asia, which Putin also contends would threaten Russian security. 

“American politicians of quite a high rank and level are saying that the Asia-Pacific region could be the first to host new systems, but it also affects our core interests, because all this is in the immediate proximity of Russian borders,” Putin said in an official statement on the matter. 

Any missile of the sort that was previously banned would undoubtedly draw criticism from Russia as it faces the possibility of finding itself within their range. The U.S. military has a vast global spread and tensions in both the Middle East and South China Sea could prompt it to use the regions as testing beds for its new technology.

Possible Responses

As for a response, a couple of ideas have been floated from Moscow on how to counter possible deployments of the land-based Tomahawk. The most likely would be the development of a comparable weapon using the Russian Kalibr system. According to Russian Major General Vladimir Dvorkin, it would be an easy task to adapt the currently sea-based Kalibr system, much akin to how the U.S. modified the Tomahawk. 

“The speed of possible deployment is the question. We will not deploy them before the Americans do. If the Americans deploy their missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, we will scratch our head and think how to act,” Dvorkin said. “We cannot deploy many in that area because our strategic ally, China, is there. So I think the speed will be moderate, and the deployment will be limited to our territory.” 

Another option would be to station missiles within Venezuela, but this tactic would likely draw-up memories of the Cuban Missile Crisis which saw Russian warheads placed in Cuba. The event is largely considered the height of the Cold War and neither state would likely wish to return to that pandemonium. 

Putin promised to develop intermediate-range missiles of his own if the U.S. did so first, and Washington has already begun testing them. Without a treaty to limit the development of weapons, both sides are unrestricted, but thus far Russia has taken a more calculated approach. Putin will wait for Trump to move first before delivering matching responses which will help him avoid escalating the situation too far.  As it stands now, it’s Putin’s turn to make a move in the new arms race amongst superpowers. 

L'articolo Russian Response to US Missile Testing Coming as Weapons Race Heats Up proviene da InsideOver.