Barely four days after all sides in the Yemeni conflict welcomed the call for a ceasefire in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, the war seems to be escalating yet again and threatening to undo whatever little progress had been made.

Hostilities Flare Up Once Again

The tit-for-tat re-escalation started again on Saturday night when Houthis fired a number of rockets and drones towards Saudi Arabia, causing minor injuries to two Saudi citizens.

“Saudi Air Defense Forces intercepted 2 ballistic missiles launched by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia towards #Riyadh and #Jazan,” the Kingdom’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted on Sunday morning.

Reuters reported later the same day that a military spokesman for Houthis took responsibility for launching rockets and drones at “sensitive” sites in Riyadh and at economic and military sites in Jazan and Asir, near the Yemeni border.

First Major Houthi Attack in Almost One Year

This was the first major Houthi offensive against the Kingdom after the rocket attack at the oil field last September, post which things calmed down a little, giving a temporary relief to the war-torn country.

“I am gravely dismayed and disappointed by these actions at a time when the Yemeni public’s demands for peace are unanimous and louder than ever before. Yemen needs its leaders to focus every minute of their time on averting and mitigating the potentially disastrous consequences of a Covid-19 outbreak,” said UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths.

Saudi Arabia Hits Back

Much to Griffiths’ dismay, the fight was taken one further notch upwards on Monday with the Saudis retaliating through air strikes on Yemen’s capital of Sanaa, including sites in the presidential palace compound and a military school. As per Reuters, the coalition struck “legitimate military targets including Houthi ballistic batteries which threaten civilian lives.”

After the outbreak of the contagious coronavirus — which doesn’t discriminate along national, sectarian or ideological lines — United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres in a March 25 statement urged “those fighting in Yemen to immediately cease hostilities, focus on reaching a negotiated political settlement and do everything possible to counter a potential outbreak of Covid‑19.”

What if Yemen Gets Coronavirus?

So far, Yemen has not reported any cases of the coronavirus but that is likely because no tests have been done. Its outbreak could wreak further havoc for the country already facing one of the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.

As for the uptick in fighting, the head of the Houthi-government’s national negotiation delegation Mohammed Abdulsalam iterated that there was no option left for the military but to respond to continued Saudi aggression and thus “defend the dignity of the nation”.

This is part of a brewing conflict that resumed in the end of January, with hundreds getting killed across a series of attacks including on Yemeni defense minister in which he narrowly escaped death. Just in March alone, the fighting has seen major escalation resulting in the Houthis taking control of Al Jawf, which lies in the country’s north just next to the Saudi border.

Now the next frontier is Marib, the oil-rich province which remains the last stronghold of the Saudi-led coalition government. The Houthis had already started advancing towards the region by Mar 11 and an all-out war for its control will probably shape the future of the country and any prospect of peace.

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Though hardly ever prosperous and stable, the last five years or so have been particularly harsh on Yemen where a civil war has ensued between the Saudi-supported government and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. 

The resulting violence has taken over 100,000 lives and displaced millions, largely attributable to ruthless airstrikes by Saudi Arabia, creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Attempts at diplomacy have been scarce and half-hearted but the end of 2019 offered some reprieve to Yemenis following a scale-down in the war. 

However, only a few months after relative calm following the first Houthi (or possibly Iranian) airstrike that hit Saudi Arabia in its jugular vein — oil — and then the Riyadh agreement which tried to mend the differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and it’s back to business as usual in Yemen: horrific war.

Conflict is Re-Intensifying in Yemen

Building up since late January, the conflict has been intensifying with each passing day with close to a hundred fighters from both sides killed in just the last two weeks. This death toll included an attack on Yemeni defence minister which took the lives of his six guards, which came just a day after battle near the port of Hodeidah that killed 18. 

Since the attack on Aramco’s oil facility at Abqaiq — which Houthis claimed responsibility for but the Kingdom blamed on Iran — Saudi Arabia had gone a little under the radar, toning down its aggression by a notch or two. But of late, things seem to have changed as the conflict in Yemen escalates and airstrikes resumed. 

US Support Encourages Riyadh

Much of Saudi Arabia’s aggression is thanks to the confidence boost Saudis received after the US increased its military presence both in the Kingdom and around the region after taking out Iranian General Qasem Solemani. And that certainly looked like the case too when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Saudi Arabia on Feb 21 and discussed the rise in conflict in Yemen with his hosts, including the king, crown prince and the deputy defense minister. 

In a show of strength and cooperation with Riyadh, Pompeo also touched down at Prince Sultan Airbase where some 2,500 American troops are stationed, signalling that Washington stands strong with its allies. The message was heard clearly in Sanaa and Tehran. 

Meanwhile, Ambassador Abizaid talked about the threat to Saudi territory from Houthi rockets, which he traced back to Iran. “We’ve just recently interdicted two dhows down there filled with Iranian-produced equipment that is being used by the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia.  So I think it’s really important for us to understand who is the aggressor in the region, and it’s no doubt it’s the Iranians,” he said on Feb. 20 in a press briefing. 

“…a lot of people don’t understand there’s been an awful lot of missile strikes that have been supplied by missiles, supplied by the IRGC Qods Force launched from Yemen, 400 strikes, as a matter of fact, on – about – on Saudi Arabia,” the ambassador continued.

And just like that, he put the onus of responsibility on Iran giving clean chit to the Saudis in Yemen’s theater of war. 

The Multi Polar Yemen Conflict

Adding another layer of complexity to the conflict is the internal divide between the coalition. Where Saudi Arabia has its weight behind the Hadi government, the UAE is supporting separatists in the south. And despite their common animosity with the Houthis, the two haven’t always been able to see eye to eye. 

The Riyadh Agreement, signed in November 2019, was a major step to bridge those differences but a missile attack in Marib on Jan. 18 that killed 118 men  has cast doubts on its sustainability. So far the two Arab states have done just enough to keep the coalition alive, intervening in time before things go out of control. However, the window of opportunity might be closing. Unless a more comprehensive pact, with a streamlined execution timeline is framed, Yemen could very well see a many-sided and intensified war with strings pulled by three regional capitals.

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The Arab Spring of 2010 – 2011 has not rolled on to summer days for Yemen. Now a war-torn nation, Yemen is the victim of both weak internal politics as well as external meddling. Prompted by the Spring unrest in many parts of the Islamic world, Yemen in 2011 experienced a “transition” from the stale, authoritarian presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who handed over his rule to his then deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

Although the flimsiest of concessions – as opposed to a wholesale renewal of government based on multiparty elections – it seemed the civil transfer of power was good enough for Yemen’s people, and it would enable the country to go forward with higher hopes. The incoming Hadi, however, was quickly beset by southern separatists’ aspirations, persistent loyalty among the military top brass towards Saleh, ongoing corruption, unemployment and food scarcity, as well as sporadic jihadist attacks.

Today, Yemen is a country tarnished throughout by civil war, with Saleh’s old enemies – the Houthi movement that fights for control by the country’s Zaidi Shia Muslim minority – having taken control of the north with relative ease. The Houthi’s stronghold was always the Saada province, and the movement now controls it, along with several surrounding areas.

As Hadi’s inability to address Yemen’s affairs grew more apparent, the Houthi’s popular appeal grew, and the movement attracted both Shia and Sunni Muslim residents’ sympathies. Popular support due to lingering dissatisfaction – combined with a weak and remote government – saw fighting erupt, enabling a Houthi coup in late 2014. The capital city Sanaa also fell to rebel control in 2015, while Hadi was forced into exile. Both Houthi aggression as well as variably substantiated allegations of Yemeni military leaders – in cahoots with erstwhile president Saleh – supporting such actions, ensured Hadi’s departure into exile, leaving behind a torn government, and a people in crisis.

Yemen’s internal strife exacerbated from the outside

The current internecine stalemate has wrought havoc on the nation’s food supplies, bringing many to the brink of starvation all over the country. For many Yemeni families, feeding their children, as well as accessing needed medical care, are evaporating hopes. Malnutrition is rife in some areas, in a country that was never a bread basket to begin with. The current hostilities have interrupted Yemen’s ports, the food supplies that typically flowed from these coastal regions, as well as many citizens’ ability to plant and manage a seasonal crop.

Exacerbating the hardship for Yemeni’s are the various players forcing their own interests in the region, those who have latched onto fragmented Yemen with fervour. Neighbouring (Sunni) Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition of neighbouring states in offensives against the Houthi encampments, with Saudi jets frequently bombing targets in the north country. Hospitals and schools too have been destroyed, and aid agencies have repeatedly condemned the targeted destruction of civilian installations. Millions of Yemen’s children have been forced to abandon their education.

Although the coalition’s air and ground actions, as well as the naval blockade still in place along the coastline, are alleged to be in keeping with UN Charter articles, critics have disputed this, and pointed to the real ramifications for common Yemenis. Widespread criticism of the coalition’s efforts have centered more specifically on those of Saudi Arabia, accused of seeking particularly the collapse of any Shia Muslim movement on its borders, rather than any egalitarian or democratic end result. With the vast southern coastal stretch also broadly yet sparsely dotted with Al Qaeda operatives, common Yemenis seem trapped within their own borders.

Most painfully, all parties in the Yemeni war appear to be accepting civilian casualties with a new disregard for non-combatant human life. The war is being waged on a new low as regards the safety of civilians, and their current often desperate needs, with alarming statistics of civilian deaths now commonplace.

To date, the Houthi movement remains in control of the territory they originally conquered, while the coalition partners, in conjunction with many European nations’ support, are hoping for a greater, final offensive to restore the erstwhile government of Hadi.

Notwithstanding over 18,000 air raids by Saudi jets, the coalition remains unconvinced that a ground force offensive would be able to recapture Sanaa, or any of the terrain Houthi rebels currently control. Iran – Saudi relations are at an all-time low, and Iran is seen as the Houthi movement’s principal benefactor, although its ability to arm and supply rebel forces is intermittently hamstrung by current monitoring.

Amidst all of the carnage, Yemen’s children are dying

Not only have over 80,000 people – civilians and combatants – died in the conflict, over two million children are at risk of dying from conditions brought on by severe malnutrition. Millions of Yemenis are on the move, having fled their homes for areas away from conflict hot spots, typically finding themselves cut off from conventional food supplies or healthcare services of any kind when they arrive.

Children are paying the heaviest price, according to UNICEF and other agencies doing relief work in the country. Poverty in Yemen was a social scourge even before the Arab Spring, and has simply increased under the current internecine warfare.

The war has dramatically worsened Yemen’s humanitarian situation, resulting in a full-blown catastrophe, which some agencies have called genocide. All warring parties are gripped by the desire for military conquest, while peace talks – and the nation’s hungry population – lie forgotten. Reporters on the ground regularly file reports of civilian installations being bombed by Saudi jets. Aid agencies are hampered by Yemen’s geography too, with an entire northern border running alongside Saudi Arabia, and the entire southern coast variably beset with foreign naval warships policing the seas.

In spite of such difficulties, prominent agencies are active on the ground in Yemen, but they face a daunting task. Not only are supplies often lost, curtailed or simply irregular, the theft of food aid is being used as a tool of war, often in an attempt to weaken Houthi resistance. The Houthi rebels too, frequently steal food donations that they then distribute only to those who express wholesale support for the movement. Civilians pay the heaviest toll, as the warring parties in this conflict have made food scarcity an offensive tactic.

Millions of children face malnourishment in 2020

As fighting intensifies, humanitarian organisations are at risk of succumbing to the carnage and being forced to retreat. Recent attacks in December 2019 on specifically aid agencies’ encampments have alarmed the UN, while agency workers on the ground say that the real victims will be the Yemeni people. As the war drags on, agencies are mostly in agreement that more than half the population will need food aid to avoid malnutrition or outright starvation in the coming months.

Never an agriculturally giving land, failed or absent crops unsupported by imports make the threat of famine engulfing Yemen a looming probability. Now in winter, if the region is at all impacted by climate change this coming summer season, aid workers fear the worst if the scant rainfall eludes farmers altogether. Caught between the internal conflict and an average annual rainfall of just 127mm, failed summer rains could well prove to be the last straw that propels millions into starvation.

More than any other recent crisis, Yemen’s humanitarian disaster has focused a spotlight on humanitarian aid – food and medical supplies – in terms of how it is dispatched, distributed and ultimately consumed. Although the UN raised an amount of some $3 billion that was needed to address malnutrition and starvation in Yemen in 2018 – 2019, it has been criticised by potential recipients for allegedly allowing the Houthi rebels to distribute food. Most likely a marriage of convenience, it seems at times that Houthi “oversight” and “distribution” is the best aid agencies can hope for. Stories of rebels confiscating food or selling it on the black market – often directly from a crate still bearing a UN or other insignia – have seen their popular support souring in many locales.

Allegations that the movement steals children to train as soldiers or use as human shields have also encouraged many families to flee, exacerbating the situation, and pushing the country towards more hardship and starvation. With peace talks mooted but as yet unmanifest, the conflict in Yemen looks set to drag on into 2020, meaning that the death toll among Yemen’s most vulnerable – the children – will continue to climb.

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Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said his country is willing to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia aimed at creating stability in the Middle East and ending the bloodshed in Yemen.

“From Iran’s points of view, there is no problem in developing ties with neighbors and resuming relations with Saudi Arabia,” Rouhani made the statement in a meeting with Omani Foreign Minister Yousef Bin Alawi in Tehran as Xinhua quoted.

Rouhani also emphasised the Yemen War, where Saudi and Iran were involved. He added there should be an effort to end the conflict sooner. In 2015, Saudi launched a military intervention in Yemen to crush Iran-backed Houthi rebels who expelled internationally-recognized leader Abd Mansour Hadi, who fled to Saudi.

The background of the Iran-Saudi rivalry

Saudi and Iran are leading powers of the two largest sects of Islam; the former is seen as the world’s leading Sunni Muslim nation, while the Iatter is predominantly Shia Muslim.

The 1979 Iran revolution came as a challenge to Saudi, which boasted as the birthplace of Islam, given Iran’s theocracy system and its aim to export such a system elsewhere.

Iran was close to the West during the Shah rule. However, the revolution turned Iran into one of the US adversaries, while Saudi is one of the US closest allies.

Saudi and Iran have never been engaged in a direct fight. However, both are competing to exert their influence in the Middle East. They are also among the world’s largest energy producers due to their oil and natural gas’ abundant reserve.

Yemen is a battleground for Saudi and Iran. Riyadh backs Mansour Hadi while Tehran supports Houthi rebels to overthrow him.  The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) report revealed that, as of November 2018, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition had killed 6,872 civilians in 2018 and wounded 10,768.

Tensions continued when Saudi and the US accused Iran of masterminding the drone attacks targeting Saudi’s oil facility on September 14. Riyadh claimed Tehran’s role in the incident based on the drones’ and missiles’ debris. However, it was uncertain whether those weapons appeared to be launched from Iran.

Iran-Saudi improved ties for the peaceful Middle East and Yemen

Rouhani urged Saudi to end its military operation in Yemen, adding that by withdrawing troops from Yemen, Saudi’s security would be guaranteed.

“The security of Saudi Arabia will be guaranteed with the termination of aggression in Yemen, rather than by inviting foreigners,” Rouhani told the UN General Assembly.

Just a few weeks after the drone attack, Iran and Saudi were reportedly in touch despite Riyadh’s denial, as Voanews reported.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani welcomed a dialogue with Saudi as it could ease the tension in the world’s most volatile region.

“Tehran welcomes any negotiations with Saudi Arabia … because talks with Riyadh can resolve many regional problems and issues,” Larijani told Aljazeera as Voanews reported.

Saudi’s minister of state for foreign affairs, Adel Jubeir, denied Tehran’s claim via Twitter, stating: “it is not correct that Saudi Arabia sent a message to Tehran, but that the leader of a friendly country sought to calm the situation and Riyadh told him that its position has always been to seek security and stability in the region.”

Saudi has held talks with Yemen’s Houthi rebels via video conference mediated by Oman over the past two months, Gamal Amer, a negotiator representing the Houthis, confirmed as AlJazeera reported.

A senior Saudi official admitted that Riyadh had opened a dialogue with the Houthis since 2016 and would continue it to create peace in Yemen, as AFP reported.

“We have had an open channel with the Houthis since 2016. We are continuing these communications to support peace in Yemen,” the official told reporters.

The official did not elaborate on the development of the talks. The Houthi rebels did not also comment on the dialogue. However, rebels also held a meeting with Washington as Assistant Secretary of Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker confirmed during his Saudi visit in September.

Anti-Iran alliance is crumbling

Saudi and its allies have started a dialogue with Iran (as the United Arab Emirates held maritime talks with Tehran), showing that the anti-Iran alliance is waning and dialogue with Tehran is necessary to create the peaceful Middle East.

The anti-Iran alliance is not just faltering; it’s crumbling. MBZ (Mohammed bin Zayed, Emirati’s crown prince) has struck his deal with Iran; MBS (Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi’s crown prince is not far behind,” Martin Indyk, a distinguished fellow at Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior diplomat, tweeted as The New York Times quoted.

Despite the ongoing tension involving Iran and the US following the latter’s exit from the Iran nuclear deal, the reconciliation between Tehran and Riyadh is vital for the peaceful Middle East and an end to a humanitarian crisis in Yemen.

L'articolo Will the Improved Iran-Saudi Ties Stabilize the Middle East and End The Yemen War? proviene da InsideOver.

Speculation is rife on the course the showdown between Saudi Arabia and Iran will take in the coming days. This is especially so after media reports emerged to allege the presence of links between Iran and the attacks on oil processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia in September this year.

According to the reports, Iran started preparing for the attacks four months earlier in its bid to punish the US for pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, on one hand, and world powers, on the other. Over five meetings, Iranian military commanders debated a list of targets, including US military bases in the Gulf, seaports in Saudi Arabia and Saudi oil installations, the reports said. Iran at the end opted for the oil installations and these were the state-owned Aramco oil processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia.

By picking these facilities as targets, Iran wanted to avoid a direct military confrontation with the US. It also wanted to avoid the possibility of a devastating American military reprisal in case American targets were at the heart of the attacks. Eighteen drones were used in staging the attacks on the Aramco processing plants on September 14. Three low-flying missiles were also used in inflicting damage on the facility. They temporarily brought Saudi Arabia’s oil production down to the half and caused world oil supply to drop by 5%. This caused a surge in world crude prices. Even before media reports in this regard, Saudi Arabia pointed accusing fingers at Tehran.

On November 23, Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, said Iran was responsible for the attacks on the Aramco oil installations in September. Speaking at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, Jubeir added that his country had asked the United Nations to send experts to investigate the issue. “We asked friendly states and the United Nations to send experts to investigate the attacks,” Jubeir said. “The results will be unveiled soon.” He said the drones and missiles that attacked the installations were manufactured in Iran and that the missiles and the drones arrived from the northern side of Saudi Arabia, not its southern side.

“This is why we hold Iran responsible for the attacks,” Jubeir said. “We expect the international community to take steps to bring Iran to account. We said repeatedly that we do not want war, but the Iranians cannot be allowed to evade being questioned for their wrongdoing.” The Iran-backed Houthi militia of Yemen claimed responsibility for the attacks in their bid to absolve the Iranians from international blame and probably punishment. Nevertheless, the US and Saudi Arabia rejected this claim of responsibility. The sophistication of the attacks, they said, pointed to Iranian involvement.

True, Iran wanted to take revenge on the US for pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal and imposing sanctions on it by striking at a close ally. vNevertheless, the attacks on the Aramco oil installations were the latest development in a long ideological conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, one where religion comes at the center. Iran has been throwing its full weight behind Shiite regimes, forces, and groups in the region since its 1979 Islamic Revolution.

In a way, this destabilizes some Arab states with sizeable Shiite populations and tightens the noose around majority Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia and most of the Arab Gulf. The two countries have spent tens of billions of dollars in the past nine years in backing rival political forces; militias; governments, and organizations. They are involved in proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. They move the strings in Iraq and Lebanon.

Nobody knows for sure what Saudi Arabia will do in the coming days to make Iran pay for its alleged attacks on the Aramco oil processing facilities. Riyadh is now apparently consulting with its allies, especially the United Arab Emirates, where Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman arrived on November 27, on the most appropriate action. The coming few days will show what it will do.

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Western intelligence sources revealed that Qatar had been informed in advance of Iran’s alleged attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facility, aimed at disrupting Saudi’s oil giant Saudi Aramco’s plan to list its shares (initial public offering/IPO). Qatar did not alert its Western allies about the attack.

Besides the 14 September drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s facility, the leaked report, as Fox News wrote, claimed that Qatar had been aware of the May attacks targeting Saudi Arabian oil tankers, two Norwegian vessels, and the United Arab Emirate (UAE) ship at the Strait of Hormuz thus raising concern that the Gulf state’s silence could ruin ties with other countries in the Middle East.

“Credible intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC’s Quds Force is responsible for the attacks near Fujairah and that elements of the Iranian government, as well as the State of Qatar, were aware of the IRGC’s activities,” Fox News stated in its report as The Arab Weekly quoted.

Washington accused Iran of masterminding the attack. Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the Aramco blast. The incident cut Saudi’s oil output in half.

Later, an investigative report from Reuters revealed that unidentified Iranian officials confirmed Tehran’s involvement in the attack.

Washington and Tehran have been involved in the prolonged conflict following the former’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA/Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) signed in 2015. The US blamed Iran for violating the agreement despite the compliance report from the world’s nuclear energy watchdog, IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).

Reactions: Qatar denies the report, the West is raising a concern

Qatar snubbed the allegations that it had prior knowledge to those incidents, as Oilprice reported. Doha has yet to issue an official response so far.

The US intelligence source refused to comment. However, a French senator Nathalie Goulet and a British parliament member told Fox News that the report was “very alarming.”

“If proven correct, this poses serious questions for our alliances in this region,” Ian Paisley, British parliament member, said.

Goulet, one of the respected European figures in counterterrorism effort, confirmed she would send the report to the minister of defense and chief of the security department.

Qatar hosts the largest U.S military base in the MiddleEast. Fox News reported. The wealthy Gulf country is among the world’s largest weapon buyer From the 2009-2013 period and the 2014-2018 period, Qatar’s arms import skyrocketed 225 percent, mainly from the US and Germany, Lobelog reported.

Saudi Arabia and Other Arab Countries are worrying Qatar’s improved ties with Iran

In 2017, Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) imposed a blockade on Qatar, stemmed from Riyadh’s and Abu Dhabi’s accusation that Doha had assisted and sponsored terrorism-related organizations.

Qatar was accused of funding the Ikhwanul Muslimin, closely related to Taliban and Al-Qaeda affiliates, and having a close relationship with Iran. Qatar’s reputable TV station Al-Jazeera was blamed for supporting Iran-backed Houthi rebel in Yemen, where Saudi and Iran are trying to exert their influence.

Qatar has expanded its support for the Houthis in Yemen, evident from backing from Qatar to Yemeni to pull away from the late Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had close ties with these tribes and their leaders.

Such a backing paved the way for Houthis to kill Saleh at the end of 2017. The former president was trying to reduce Iranian influence before his tragic death.

As the impact of the Gulf diplomatic crisis, Qatar was banned from taking land, sea, and air routes from and to several neighboring countries, such as Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. Besides those five nations, four other countries (Maldives, Mauritania, Libya, and Mauritius) called for the blockade.

Iran came as the guardian angel by providing its access and food aid to Qatar. Both countries’ relationship has got closer since then, which upsets Saudi given Riyadh’s ambition to contain Tehran’s influence in the Middle East, ignoring other Arab countries’ request that Qatar had to sever ties with Iran.

“The state of Qatar expressed its aspirations to strengthen bilateral relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran in all fields,” the Qatari Foreign Ministry statement said as CNN wrote.

David Reaboi, an adviser at the Security Studies Group, think tank, said that the report (that Qatar knew Iran’s plan to attack Saudi Aramco’s refineries in advance) came as no surprise, but still sounded unusual.

“It’s no surprise to see Qatar play both sides, the United States and Iran, but it’s unusual for a state like this to be as ideological as Qatar,” Reaboi told The National.

Will The Soccer Tournament Help To Create Peace In The Gulf?

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have softened their stances by sending their national football teams to Doha to participate in the Arabian Gulf Cup, Business Insider reported.

Saudi Arabian team and officials flew directly to Doha, effectively marking the end of the boycott. Bahrain followed suit while the UAE team and officials chose to take transit to Kuwait before continuing their flight to Qatar.

The Gulf’s soccer diplomacy can be a positive sign to ease the never-ending conflict in the oil-rich region. However, it seems that the tension will not go away soon, given the Abu Dhabi still sticks to the blockade

Dr Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Gulf analyst, told Business Insider: “The Qatari Prime Minister’s participation at the Mecca Summits in Saudi Arabia at the end of May did not lead to any breakthrough, as some beforehand had hoped it might.” The leadership in Abu Dhabi remains resolutely opposed to any normalization of ties and easing of the blockade.

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Stark was the reality of the actual decision-makers and operators of all but the Houthis in war-torn Yemen at the signing ceremony held in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Nov. 5. The figurehead Saudi-backed president of the internationally recognized Yemeni government Abd Rubbo Mansour Hadi was present as his government and UAE-backed Transitional Council of South Yemen signed a peace deal following months of intensive fighting for the control of Yemeni strategic cities and ports. Although the man looked incapacitated as the two strong men of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) and the UAE Muhammad Bin Zayed (MBZ) Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, ran the show.

Personal Agendas Over Conflict

It is not clear how the peace deal orchestrated by the two most powerful players within the Saudi-led coalition in the four-year-old war on Yemen will help end the conflict that has generated one of the worst humanitarian disasters since World War II. While the two Gulf nations and their proxy militias have engaged in bitter fighting for territorial control, Houthi rebels and the Yemeni national army have scored major advances and victories in recent months. Last September alone, three Saudi-backed and coalition brigades fell to the Houthis and thousands of soldiers and proxy fighters surrendered in a humiliating defeat in the Jizan province close to the Yemeni borders with Saudi Arabia. It was then reported that MBS kept the humiliatingly embarrassing news away from his ailing father, King Salman of Saudi Arabia.

Following a series of military blows and a series of successful ballistic missile and suicide drown attacks against vital Saudi oil installations and airports, the United Arab Emirates drew down their troops in Yemen. Most recently, Sudan pulled out many of its forces fighting alongside the Saudis in the country amid signs of deep fractures in the Saudi-led coalition sunk deeper into the Yemeni quagmire for the fourth year running with no sign of a decisive victory yet. In August, the Yemeni separatist movement, backed by MBZ, which seeks self-rule in southern Yemen, targeted government forces as they seized their interim seat in the strategic port city of Aden. The bloody clashes sounded alarm bells in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, raised fears of further undermining the already fractured anti-Houthi alliance along with any chances for working out a negotiated settlement to the catastrophic war in Yemen which has drawn mounting international outrage and criticism.

Therefore, this week’s peace deal between the Yemeni government and the separatists seeking an autonomous rule in the south, seems more of an effort to unite forces and close ranks against their main enemy in Yemen, the Iranian-backed Houthis who reign supreme in the capital Sanaa and other parts in the north. However, the Saudi Crown Prince described the agreement as a crucial step towards a political solution to end a power struggle and eventually Yemen’s bloody war. “This agreement will open a new period of stability in Yemen. The kingdom of Saudi Arabia stands with you,” the Saudi Crown Prince told the Yemeni signatories at the ceremony in Riyadh aired on state television.  Despite this optimistic rhetoric, MBS himself failed to explain how this agreement will effectively help end the war in Yemen at large; that is unless he was referring merely to the southern part of the country and the Saudi-Emirati power struggle there.

Main Points of the Peace Deal

The ‘loosely worded and open to interpretation’ agreement, if successfully implemented on the ground, states that all military and security forces will be incorporated into the defence and interior ministries, introducing a government reshuffle to include the separatists with equal representation, and their armed forces will be placed under government control. It does little more than solve two short-term problems; It prevents a war-within-a-war between the southern separatists and Hadi’s government, and provides more credibility to any future government negotiations with the Houthis.

The UN special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, congratulated the two sides on the deal. “The signing of this agreement is an important step for our collective efforts to advance a peaceful settlement to the conflict in Yemen,” he said in a statement. “Listening to southern stakeholders is important to the political efforts to achieve peace in the country.”

More realistically, the peace agreement will help the Saudis and Emiratis to refocus on fighting the Houthis on Saudi Arabia’s border, and minimize systematic, painful and embarrassing rebel missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities, airfields, military and oil installations which have remarkably increased both scale and damage-wise in recent months. This is due to seriously shake the Saudis self-confidence and their trust in the massive, mainly US-supplied arsenal that has cost the oil-rich Kingdom trillions of dollars and abysmally failed to shoot down cheap-to-buy Houthi killer drones.

L'articolo Deal Unites Yemeni Government and Separatists Against Houthis proviene da InsideOver.

Speculation is rife on the turn the showdown between the US and Iran will take in the coming days after the Islamic Republic’s ambassador in Baghdad threatened that his country would attack US troops in Iraq.

Iraj Masjedi said Iran would attack US troops in Iraq, if the Islamic Republic came under attack by the US.

“We do not want to go to war with the US,” Masjedi said. “War will serve nobody’s interests,” he added in on September 27 in an interview with the Amman-based Iraqi channel, Dijlah TV.

His ultimatum came only hours after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani claimed that the US had sent a message to European leaders that it was willing to lift all sanctions on Iran.

The Iranian leader, who was returning home from New York where he attended the 74th United Nations General Assembly meetings, added that he had rejected talks with Washington while punitive US sanctions were intact.

Germany, Britain, and France, he said, had insisted on a joint meeting with US officials.

“The German chancellor, the prime minister of Britain and the president of France were in New York and all insisted that this meeting take place and America says that it will lift the sanctions,” Rouhani said, according to his official website. “It was up for debate what sanctions will be lifted and they (the US) had said clearly that we will lift all sanctions.”

Rouhani claimed that France and Britain prodded him to meet US President Donald Trump. French President Emmanuel Macron, he said, warned that this would be a lost opportunity if he did not.

Nevertheless, Trump said on the same day that he had rejected Iran’s request to lift sanctions.

“Iran wanted me to lift the sanctions imposed on them to meet. I said, of course, NO!” Mr Trump wrote on Twitter.

Nobody knows whether the US had proposed to lift the sanctions it imposed on Iran or the Iranian president was making this up.

However, Rouhani’s claims come at a time his nation, which has military presence in four Arab countries, seems to be emboldened into more action to press the US to end the sanctions or at least reduce their intensity, analysts say.

This is especially true after the US and the international community had failed to bring Iran to account for its September 14 attack on two oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia.

Iran insists that the Houthi militia of Yemen perpetrated the attacks in a desperate attempt to shrug off accusations in this regard.

This does nothing to prove the Islamic Republic innocent because the Houthis are an Iranian proxy after all, analysts say.

Masjedi said his country would respond to any aggression against it.

“We have an endless list of self-defence options,” the Iranian diplomat said.

He called for kicking US troops out of the region. This leaves the door open to all possibilities in the coming days.

Fearing no consequences and frustrated with the effects of the US economic sanctions on Iran, the country’s mullahs have a free hand to try and strike at either the US or its allies in the region.

This is so far happening through Iran’s proxies, namely the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, and the Houthis of Yemen.

The Houthis are stepping up their attacks on Saudi Arabia, claiming to have taken 2,000 Saudi troops hostage during a September 27 operation in northern Yemen, near the restive country’s border with Saudi Arabia.

Iran may also strike at other US regional allies, which explains the high state of alert within Israel and regional fears that the Islamic Republic can hit in the coming days wherever nobody expects, including in countries that have not come under attack before.

L'articolo Will Iran Attack US Troops In Iraq? proviene da InsideOver.

The United States recently announced it will be sending 200 US troops and advanced air defence systems to Saudi Arabia. The decision follows the strike on Saudi oilfields earlier this month on Sept. 14. The attack originated from a pro-Iranian area inside Iraq and responsibility was claimed by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The 10 suicide drones wiped out almost half of Saudi oil production although it was soon brought back up to normal levels. Iran denied any involvement.

The request for troops comes from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). President Trump’s recent claim that the United States is “more prepared” than ever before to go to war with Iran should chill even neutral observers, as it would be an incredibly dangerous blunder. A powerful Patriot surface-to-air missile system is also on the way with two more on standby as well as a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD).

Approximately 500 US troops were already deployed to Saudi Arabia this past July to pressure Iran out of taking any hostile actions. This is in addition to the tens of thousands of American troops and significant assets already in place around the Gulf in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. Iran is experiencing the geopolitical equivalent of being backed in a corner. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called the crushing American sanctions “merciless economic terrorism” recently at the UN General Assembly and said Iran won’t negotiate with America while the sanctions remain in place. Additional sanctions were put on Iran following the Sept. 14 strike on Saudi oilfields, despite a lack of proof provided of Iran’s complicity.

For its part, Yemen is experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world, partly as a result of the US-backed Saudi coalition’s campaign against the Houthi rebels. Yemen’s civil war, which broke out after the ouster of former President Ali Saleh between his supporters and opponents, has seen both sides commit atrocities and war crimes. However, Saudi Arabia and its coalition contributing most to the bloodshed, starvation and disease through a devastating economic blockade and airstrikes that have killed an estimated 4,800 civilians since the war started and the Houthis have killed around 1,700 in the same period according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.

Saudi Arabia has also allegedly been recruiting Sudanese child soldiers to fight in the Yemen war and has shocked the public with events such as bombing a Yemeni school for the blind and a bus full of Yemeni schoolchildren. Fortunately, a partial ceasefire may be coming up soon between the Houthis and Saudis. Perhaps it has something to do with the recent Houthi claim that they have just captured thousands of Saudi soldiers in a major military victory.

Recent polling by Gallup showed only 18 percent of Americans want military strikes on Iran, and sending more troops and sophisticated equipment there at this time leads closer to that outcome. Saudi Arabia has been identified as being the biggest arms importer in the world between 2014 to 2018, a 192 percent jump from their arms import levels between 2009 to 2013. They are awash in armoured trucks, tanks, missiles, warplanes, guns and bombs, with an estimated $15.6 billion in arms imports from their top five sellers US, UK, France, Spain and Germany. Saudi Arabia also has a highly-trained and lethal military of over 230,000. They are far from defenceless or weak, and sending additional American troops and equipment—which are functionally irrelevant additions compared to the already massive American and European arms exports and Saudi Arabia’s army strength and Gulf allies—does indeed seem to be more about “posturing” and ramping up the media war against Iran than real military logistics.

Nonetheless, posturing can quickly turn into real war as the past century shows us, and American and Western assets in the Middle East and Gulf region are already significant. The move to send more troops and equipment to Saudi Arabia should concern even those who consider Iran a threat, because it increases the tempo of rhetoric and reminder of how easily any incident at this point could lead to an outbreak of direct hostilities between Iran and the Saudi coalition backed by the US.

Certainly Iran is not all some innocent victim of everyone else, and it is a threat to regional stability: but the world-threatening bogeyman it has been built up into by America and its “allies” like Saudi Arabia is making it harder to deescalate the situation and come up with a solution that doesn’t involve catastrophic war. In addition to being unpopular strikes on Iran are also militarily unwise considering its military power and strategic depth.

Recently, during the ongoing debacle over Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump defended his decision to delay military aid to Ukraine before the call because of concern over Ukraine’ s corruption. “Why would you give money to a country that you think is corrupt?” Some Americans and world observers might also ask why you would give troops and risk American lives for a country which is corrupt and beheads and crucifies teenagers and bombs schools for blind people?

Most countries that cut up a journalist in pieces, bomb schoolkids and have the distinction of 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers coming from their shores (two others from UAE, another from Lebanon and another from Egypt), would not be getting American lives put on the line to defend their nation and their oil flow. Saudi Arabia: with friends like this, who needs enemies?

L'articolo Why Is The United States Sending More Troops To Saudi Arabia? proviene da InsideOver.

For the first time in the four years of war in Yemen, a lethal drone attack against Saudi Arabia’s two main oil plants was confirmed to have been launched from Iraqi territory. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s quick blame on Iran and its Houthi rebels in Yemen from where he originally claimed the attack was initiated, added to the confusion concerning this major development. Pompeo later joined the chorus confirming that the suicide drones raid which targeted the most important Saudi oil fields of Kuhrais and al Abqaiq originated in an Iraqi border area with a pro-Iranian local community. The deliberate US insistence to force Iran’s name in the incident – the Saudis themselves held off on accusations – has not downgraded the significance of this development and its immediate repercussions on the world oil markets.

Drones or Missiles, Damage Was Done

Houthi rebels in Yemen were quick to assume responsibility for the deadly attacks that set the two major Saudi oil installations ablaze on the morning of Saturday, September 14. Initially, it was quite clear whether the attack was carried out by long-range missiles or suicide drones, but Houthis reaffirmed the latter confirming that they had sent 10 suicide drones on this very mission.

Damage to the Saudi plants was so immense that it crippled the country’s oil production cutting it by half – that amounts to 5% of the world’s crude production. The Saudis announcement a few days ago that their production quota is now back to normal does not underestimate the seriousness of the incident and its economic, security and political fallout. Once again, US-made expensive and supposedly sophisticated Patriot anti-aircraft systems and other surface-to-air batteries have abysmally failed to prevent yet another costly drone attack by Yemeni rebels with limited resources, who threatened that there was more to come unless the Saudi-led coalition stops its war on Yemen.

More Embarrassment for MBS and Saudi Allies

The impact of the raids on the oil and financial markets was immediate. Oil prices rose and Saudi stocks fell, then settled and later fell again. A growing sense of anger and frustration among Saudi citizens following every such attack adds to the embarrassment of the Saudi royal family and its strong man, Crown Prince MBS. Their coalition has failed to produce any tangible results on the ground in Yemen, and has suffered widening fractures following the drawdown of UAE’s troops operating in Yemen, and a recent visit to Tehran by the Emirati Coast Guard commander to Tehran for consultations and coordination with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s arch-rival and enemy, regarding security and safety issues in the Gulf region. The United Arab Emirates has had its own share of national regional insecurity and fear of an uncontrollable escalation when 6 tankers and other vessels were attacked off the coast of Al Fujairah a few months ago.

Confusion Shrouds Iraq Implication in Attack

So much ado and uncertainty regarding where this Houthi attack on Saudi oil plants had originated, as Iraq was implicated for the first time in such incidents against Saudi Arabia. Immediately following the attack, a senior Iraqi government official confirmed that the attack was launched from Iraqi soil, not from Yemen. Soon thereafter, Iraqi officials utterly denied that they had anything to do with this attack. Adding to the confusion and embarrassment of the Iraqis, a US-based Iraqi centre, the Future Foundation’s president Intifad Qanbar, quoting reliable sources of his inside Iraq itself, reconfirmed that the attack was launched from inside Iraqi territories, most likely from southern Iraq where Iran sympathizers are a majority. Iran, as usual, was singled out for the immediate blame and ready-made accusation; the media loves it, and the Iranians have grown used to it with obvious indifference.

The mere fact that this deadly attack against Saudi Arabia’s backbone oil installations was, for the first time, waged from inside Iraq itself remains a major and unexpected development that has everything to do with the Saudi-led war on Yemen. But more importantly even, is the fact that Iran-backed Houthi rebels feel much more confident and capable of inflicting ‘serious and painful’ damage on their arch-enemy Saudi Arabia, with strong warnings to its coalition partners. The table is turning against the Saudis and their fractured coalition in Yemen, and Houthi rebels are now well poised on the winning side.

L'articolo Iraqi Drone Attack On Saudi Oil Plants proviene da InsideOver.