Recent developments in Libya are setting the ground for a renewed cycle of violence. While both sides are gradually fueling the tension, UN and international concerns are focused on the potential failure of the ongoing peace process.

Haftar Reacts Angrily to Turkey’s Libya Troop Extension

On the day marking the 69th anniversary of Libyan Independence, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar stated that as long as Turkish Forces remain stationed in Libya, there will be no peace in the country. As predicted, Turkey’s Grand National Assembly recently approved a bill extending deployment of Turkish troops in Libya for another 18 months.

In his inflammatory remarks, Haftar stated that Ankara should withdraw its forces, otherwise the “Libyan people would by force drive out the colonizing force.” With these words, the Benghazi-based Libyan strongman indirectly passed an ultimatum to Turkey at a point where there is no chance that Ankara would back down. This highlights the fragility of the ongoing peace process.

Turkey Responds to Haftar’s Demand

Shortly after Haftar’s speech on Dec. 26 there has was a straightforward Turkish response. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar landed in Tripoli accompanied by Turkey’s military leadership in an unscheduled visit to inspect the Turkish Forces based in the country. It was clear that at the same time Akar’s visit was intended to send a message to Haftar, emphasizing that Ankara is ready and committed to fully support Fayez al-Serraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA).

Prior to Akar’s visit, his Libyan counterpart Minister Salahaddin al-Namroush stated in a televised interview that the UN-recognized Tripoli GNA government would not let Haftar carry out another major offensive to capture the Libyan capital. He also said that the Libyan Army, under GNA command, has been following and respecting the ceasefire terms, however the armed forces would be standing by to effectively respond to any provocations from the Haftar-led LNA.

Even earlier, during an interview on Dec. 11, al-Namroush was even more critical of Haftar, calling the General a war criminal and ruling out any possibility of forming a political coalition where Haftar could play any role at all. Considering that al-Namroush will remain one of the key GNA players and his footprint -in both the political and military aspects of the process — is significant, we could assess that a new escalation between the two sides could be likely. Therefore it is understandable that while Haftar remains in the equation, some GNA key officials could hardly negotiate to reach a consensus; in this respect a realistic precondition for the successful completion of the peace process would be the withdrawal of either party, which is not expected to be easy or uneventful.

We should note that the completion of the process could be the successful organization and implementation of the Libyan elections, scheduled for December 2021.

What is UNSMIL Doing to End the Libyan Conflict?

While the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has publicly congratulated the Libyan people in several instances, the in-country situation still remains far from optimistic. The recent exchange of prisoners between the opposing sides and the successful organizing of municipal elections in Al-Zawiya Al-Gharbia and Ar-Rajban areas in the northwestern parts of the country, are definitely positive signs.

However, the current transitioning period of the mission, will be critical for the next steps on the process. The experienced diplomat Nickolay Mladenov — who was expected to succeed Ghassan Salamé as the Head of UNSMIL — recently turned down the position due to personal and family reasons. Mladenov has previously held key roles in the UN Mission in Iraq and in the Middle East Peace Process; additionally his appointment was expected to be welcomed by Turkey as the Bulgarian diplomat built strong ties with Turkey, while serving as the Foreign Minister of Bulgaria several years ago.

For the moment, Stephanie Williams will remain the Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL, until a new decision is reached for the permanent placement of the Head of the Mission.

Many Challenges Lie Ahead

Despite the positive signs, mainly derived from the exchange of prisoners, there are many challenges ahead, with one of the most prominent threats being related to the oil industry of the country. The LNA’s recent raid in Awbari (or Ubari) underscores this reality. UNSMIL has also strongly condemned the efforts of armed groups to intimidate the National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli. With oil exports being one of the main sources of revenue for the Libyan economy, any disruption in this sector could trigger hostilities and further destabilize the country.

Occasional skirmishes during December also indicate that the ceasefire agreement is not being fully adhered to, and an incidental unfortunate event could easily lead to another vicious cycle of violence. Finally, the harsh rhetoric and the military build-up from both sides is another worrying sign.

Turkey’s overt action and deep involvement in Libya — not only through the deployment of military forces but also through a direct intervention in the shaping of the political context — is also a critical destabilizing factor. The most telling example of this political involvement was the recent surprise resignation of al-Serraj — which rather disappointed Ankara — only to be revoked shortly after its announcement.

L'articolo Haftar Demands That Turks Leave Libya proviene da InsideOver.

A proposal for the extension of the deployment of Turkish forces in Libya has been submitted for approval in the Turkish Parliament.

In January 2020, the Turkey’s Parliament approved the deployment of Turkish assets to Libya in support of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord GNA).

Turkey’s Previous Deployment Approval

According to that bill, the Turkish Forces would assist Tripoli for one year, including – but not limited to – logistics coordination, training, intelligence services and shipments of weapons, arms, and provision of technical equipment. The motion for the extension of the Turkish military presence has already raised concerns, as it comes at a moment where a ceasefire is ongoing between the opposing sides and the international community is urging for an arms embargo in Libya.

Ankara has officially announced that the latest moves of General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) are worrying, and a potential restart of the clashes could put at risk the Turkish interests in North Africa and the Mediterranean. It should be noted that Turkey has invested heavily in its Eastern Mediterranean presence and the Memorandum of Understanding with Tripoli has been a crucial and integral part of Turkish foreign policy so far in terms of its 2020 strategy.

Turkey is allegedly seeking the consolidation of the ceasefire agreement which has been in force since late October, under the condition that the GNA will maintain and potential expand its power and control across the country. The motion will be discussed in the Turkish Parliament in late December, and the most probable result is its approval by the majority of the MPs.

The establishment of Turkish assets in the country is fully aligning with my previous conclusions on Erdogan’s long-term plans for Libya.

Recent Incidents That Provoked Ankara’s Wrath

Earlier last week the Libyan National Army seized the Turkish commercial cargo ship Mabrooka as it was en route to the port of Misrata. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has harshly responded to the incident declaring that these are attempts to target the Turkish interests in the region, and such moves come at the expense of any efforts for a peaceful solution to the Libyan conflict.

The vessel was seized on the grounds that it entered a restricted zone, and did not answer to repeated calls from the coastal authorities. The incident came a few weeks after the Merchant Vessel (MV) Roseline A was boarded and inspected as per the standard operating procedures of the EU Operation IRINI; during the search, Turkish authorities rushed to officially deny the right to inspection, prompting the EU personnel to disembark the ship. The incident has been deemed as illegal by Ankara and caused friction between Turkey and Germany, considering that the inspection team operated off the German frigate Hamburg.

Is the Ceasefire at Stake?

While Turkish foreign policy dictates bold moves across Mediterranean and North Africa, the context of the Libyan ceasefire on the ground seems more and more fragile. GNA Defense Minister Salahaddin Namroush has warned that actions of Haftar and teh LNA are putting the ceasefire agreement at stake and could force Tripoli to withdraw.

An attack against a GNA military camp near Awbari last week was attributed to an LNA-affiliated militia. Namroush urged that such moves could trigger a new round of battles in the country. Awbari is located near the Sharara oilfield, one of the most important oilfields in Libya, therefore the latest attack could easily lead to a rapid escalation, without warning.

In the meantime, according to the latest information from the Sirte-Jufra Joint Operations Unit, Haftar is boosting the presence of LNA forces and military resources in the proximity of Sirte and Jufra. Reportedly during the weekend there has been a – possibly Russian – shipment of at least 23 armored vehicles, arms, and ammunition. These indicators raise further concerns for the viability of the current ceasefire deal.

Growing Presence of Foreign Fighters in Libya and Proxy War Scenario

Stephanie Williams, the UN Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Libya, highlighted in her opening remarks on the October agreement, that the immediate departure of all foreign fighters should be a prerequisite for the effective implementation of the ceasefire. More than a month later, Williams sounded the alarm again, stating that an estimated number of more than 20,000 foreign fighters are still in-country.

This fuels a serious crisis and constitutes one of the greatest challenges in Libya at the moment.  Despite the continuous negotiations and attempts for a long-term agreement, the EU and UN efforts for an arms embargo and the progressive monitoring of the situation on the ground, the mercenary numbers in Libya at the moment are growing exponentially and a major military build-up through foreign shipments for both sides is still ongoing.

Despite the random skirmishes and the expansion of mercenaries, the most important factor is essentially the ultimate intentions of the foreign forces involved. The Libyan Civil War has taken on all the characteristics of a proxy conflict over the last two years, the prospects for a stable and peaceful Libya that could go through an institutionalization process undisrupted, are depending on the long-term objectives of the major powers, backing the opposing sides.

A lasting ceasefire and peace would be desirable for Ankara, considering that current GNA elements could ensure their certain win in the elections planned for December 2021, thus prevailing all across Libya. Abu Dhabi and Cairo on the other hand treat this scenario as a catastrophe, considering that such a political outcome could boost the Muslim Brotherhood presence and undermine erratically the regional and domestic security status quo at their expense.

Even though those powers would also like to see stability in Libya, they demand that it should be achieved under their own terms, which means the marginalization of the GNA forces. Finally Russia seems to be benefiting from the extension of the conflict, gaining time and influence in the war-torn country. The combination of these particular circumstances and the conflicting interests of each side could possibly compromise the current truce any time and quickly drag the country back into chaos once again.

L'articolo Turkey Prepares to Extend Military Presence in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj recently performed a complete U-turn and withdrew his resignation as Prime Minister. This means that he will remain in office until the ongoing intra-Libyan political dialog comes to an end.

Last week, Stephanie Williams, the acting head of the United Nations (UN) mission in Libya, presided over a permanent nationwide ceasefire including the exit of all foreign fighters and mercenaries from the nation for a minimum of three months.

The ceasefire includes the full opening of land and air routes, efforts to tackle hate speech, an exchange of prisoners and plans to rebuild the Petroleum Facilities Guard, a militia body and oil company linked to the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), General Khalifa Haftar.

This Ceasefire Has More Potential to Stick

Although many ceasefires have been agreed and shattered in Libya with frequency, this time it could be different because senior military officers have signed the agreement.

The ceasefire also paves the way for political talks between the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the LNA on future power-sharing arrangements, as well as the future of sovereign institutions like the Central Bank of Libya and the Libyan Investment Authority.

The Libyan Prime Minister’s decision was motivated by the insistence of the High Council of State, which suggested that al-Serraj should remain until a new presidential council is selected to prevent a political vacuum detrimental to Libya’s stability. This just shows how much support the Libyan Prime Minister has at the top and how crucial he is in uniting the opposing sides in Libya’s war.

Al-Serraj Has the Support of the International Community

Al-Serraj enjoys international support. According to al-Jazeera, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas pleaded with the Libyan Prime Minister to remain in his post “in order to guarantee institutional and executive continuity” in the crucial weeks ahead, which is a reference to in-person negotiations due to take place on November 9 in Tunisia, to discuss holding national elections.

Furthermore, the UN recognizes the GNA as the only legitimate governing body in Libya, as does the U.S., Turkey and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and all of these factors are a significant boost to al-Serraj’s premiership.

Al-Serraj also enjoys support from the GNA as they released their own statement begging for him to remain in office. Because of the domestic and international support that the Libyan Prime Minister has, it is clear that if he did permanently resign, it would have had a detrimental impact on the Libyan peace process. Therefore, al-Serraj is the only Libyan politician capable of ensuring that his country’s latest ceasefire becomes permanent.

The Libyan Prime Minister is capable of building ties with nations that once supported the LNA. Al-Sarraj used a Twitter account that he created recently to thank Egypt for welcoming Libya’s permanent ceasefire. He also told Bloomberg that support from Egypt, the US and Turkey is crucial.

Al-Serraj Must Do All He Can to Make Libyan Peace a Reality

However, Egypt’s support for peace comes at a price. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi warned during his meeting with Libyan tribal chiefs on July 16 that the Sirte-Jufra red line, which is crucial to both Cairo and the LNA due to its vast oil supplies, must not be crossed. If al-Serraj is serious about remaining in office until the peace process has been completed, these are factors he must take into consideration.

The only country acting as an obstacle to peace right now is the UAE. They could persuade Haftar to disrupt the peace process and push for Turkey to be expelled from Libya. As Tarek Megerisi wrote for the European Council of Foreign Relations, the LNA chief should be threatened with sanctions if he disrupts the upcoming proceedings.

It is a huge relief for all the parties involved in the Libyan ceasefire that al-Serraj has withdrawn his resignation. The world will be watching him closely in the coming weeks.

L'articolo Libya’s PM al-Serraj Withdraws His Resignation – What Impact Will This Have? proviene da InsideOver.

Nine months ago, Germany hosted the first Libya Conference in Berlin. On Monday, October 5, it was time to assess how to advance stability further in the war-torn North African nation. However, although a ceasefire is currently in place, various actors are continuing to pursue their interests in the Libyan conflict and standing in the way of progress.

Libya’s War-Torn Reality

The people of Libya long for a better future. Their country has degenerated into a hell, used as a pawn by international actors. Crime is rising. The economy is in ruins, and jobs are scarce. It is no surprise that the people of Tripoli have been protesting against the government, against mismanagement, and the infrastructure’s deterioration for weeks. The fact that two protesters were recently shot dead by government security forces only fueled their anger.

After nearly a decade of war and chaos, Libyans long for peace, security, and economic prosperity. The previous month provided some hope. Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA) Fayez al-Sarraj announced his resignation at the end of the month. His power was crumbling, and thus the resignation is not necessarily entirely voluntary. Moreover, Sarraj fell out with his interior minister and felt pressure from armed groups within Tripoli.

Even Sarraj’s recent military successes did not help. With the help of Turkey, he was able to stop the offensive of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and its leader Khalifa Haftar who were advancing on the capital. Sarraj even forced Haftar’s troops into retreat. As a result, Sarraj can now control the flow of refugees to Europe – powerful leverage, as his supporter Erdogan knows.

Showdown in Sirte

Hafter, on the other hand, has maintained control over the rich oil reserves in the east. The two camps now face each other on the front-line town of Sirte. Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt support Haftar as their interest lies – among other things – in Libya’s gas and oil.

However, fighting Islamic militias is another important reason for them. Hence, Russia and the Emirates have sent military equipment and mercenaries into the region despite the arms embargo.

Despite all the saber-rattling on both sides, and the staggering amount of weapons and mercenaries sent to Libya, no one is interested in an escalation, let alone a protracted proxy war with Turkey on Libyan soil. It is one of the reasons why a window opened for diplomacy in August when both sides, although Haftar only agreed to a ceasefire and negotiations under strong international pressure.

The Battle for Power and Money

Since then, envoys from both warring parties have been looking for compromise lines in Morocco and Egypt through mediation. It is a tough battle for power and money. After months of blockade, Haftar has now resumed oil production. Both sides should benefit from it. An exchange of prisoners is also on the agenda, as is the formation of a unity government and, in the end, elections.

Numerous questions remain, however, particularly regarding the military on both sides. Who will be in charge of the Libyan army? How will the military units of the West and the East be integrated? Will they play a similar role as the armed militias are currently playing within the security apparatus? These are tough questions, and the potential process will need to find answers for them.

Aiming for a Diplomatic Solution

Nonetheless, the negotiating climate at the recent meeting was described as constructive. Representatives from 16 states and international organizations seek to take ownership of the situation starting on October 5 at an international conference.  This comes almost nine months after the Berlin Libya Conference, at which the participants could only agree on soft summit resolutions.

All actors involved are cognizant that a political solution’s chances of success are significantly better than a military solution. A quick breakthrough is nonetheless unlikely. The conflict is too complicated, the interests too conflicting, the mistrust too great. However, the chances of a peaceful settlement in the crisis-ridden country have never been as great, for better or worse.

L'articolo The Quest for Stability in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper made his first African tour this week for talks with officials in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. The main aim of the tour was to discuss how to limit the growing Russian influence in North Africa and the Mediterranean.

Tunisia-USA Defense Agreement

In Tunisia, the Pentagon chief signed a 10-year security cooperation pact with Tunisian Defense Minister Ibrahim Bartagi. The agreement envisages cooperation in fields such as freedom of navigation, sharing intelligence and disaster response operations, according to the Pentagon.

The American concerns over the increasing role of Russia, and also China, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region were evident in Esper’s statements during his visit to Tunisia.

“Today, our strategic competitors China and Russia continue to intimidate and coerce their neighbors while expanding their authoritarian influence worldwide, including on this continent,” he said during a ceremony in Carthage.

“And, together, we continue to counter the malign, coercive, and predatory behavior of Beijing and Moscow, meant to undermine African institutions, erode national sovereignty, create instability, and exploit resources throughout the region,” he added.

The defense secretary also signed a similar 10-year security agreement with Morocco that charts military cooperation between the two countries through 2030.

Russia’s Reach Grows in North Africa

Esper’s tour came amid Russian moves to bolster its foothold in neighboring Libya, where Moscow backs the Libyan National Army (LNA) of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar. Mercenaries from the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group are also fighting alongside Haftar’s forces against the Turkey-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

The Russian involvement in Libya is part of a regional strategy by President Vladimir Putin after the 2011 Arab Spring revolution to return to regions where Moscow used to be a key player.

Russia perceived the Arab Spring revolutions as part of a US-sponsored plan to carry out regime changes in the Middle East and North Africa, causing Moscow to lose its influence in the region.

As part of the new Russian strategy in the region, Moscow provided support to the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria against Turkey-backed opposition groups. The Russian military support has helped tip the tide of the war in Assad’s favor and gained Moscow a foothold in the pivotal Arab country.

Washington’s Fear of Russia’s Future on the Libyan Coast

Russia now has access to a naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean coast in Syria. This base can accommodate 11 warships and perform operational capabilities throughout the Mediterranean. Moscow also operates the Khmeimim airbase in the Syrian city of Latakia.

Russia has also involved itself in Libya following a NATO-backed uprising led to the ouster and subsequent death of ruler Muammar Gaddafi. Washington fears that if Russia managed to earn military bases on Libya’s coast, it would be able to threaten southern Europe and reduce US ability to maneuver militarily.

Russia has also managed to forge a strong relationship with the new regime in Egypt, where it signed a $25-billion agreement to build the country’s first nuclear power plant. Moscow has also maintained a strong close relations with Algeria, which has relied on the Russian arms sales for decades.

Washington’s allies Tunisia and Morocco have also edged closer to Russia in recent years. This increasing Russian influence was quite visible in Tunisia’s tourism industry, which is vital to the North African country’s economy.

Scrambled to halt the Russian advances, the Trump administration moved to dispatch Esper to North Africa in an attempt to convince officials in the region to join the US efforts to limit the Russian influence in MENA region.

Tunisia and Morocco: Major Non-NATO Allies

Washington sees both Tunisia and Morocco as major non-NATO allies, who can play a role in preventing Russian penetration into Africa, given their strategic location.

The Pentagon chief’s visit to Algeria was also an attempt by Washington to convince the country’s new leadership to play a more active role in combating militant groups in neighboring Libya and consequently helping diminish the Russian role in the country.

His visit came weeks before Algerian voters will cast ballot in a constitutional referendum that, if approved, would allow the country to send troops outside its border for peacekeeping missions.

In any case, Russia appears to be determined to regain its status as a key players in the MENA region, making use of the American retreat that began under the Barack Obama administration and continues under the Trump administration.

L'articolo US Looks to Draw North Africa Away From Russian Orbit proviene da InsideOver.

According to a Janes report from early September approximately 5,000 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries have been deployed to Libya to support the Government of National Accord (GNA).

The report quotes sources from the US Africa Command and the US Office of the Inspector General. The same sources reveal that dozens of military advisors of the Turkish company SADAT are also in Libya, training the Syrian fighters and monitoring the day-to-day operations of Turkish-affiliated militias.

Rumors around SADAT have started circulating shortly after the publication of the report, and some recent comments of the company’s President Adnan Tanriverdi for the Daily Telegraph did not provide any further clarity. We shall now have a brief look into the company that according to many commentators could be the Turkish counterpart to the Russian Wagner Group on the Libyan front.

Who is Adnan Tanriverdi?

Adnan Tanriverdi is the founder and current President of SADAT Board of Directors. A former General in the Turkish Armed Forces, Tanriverdi was discharged back in 1996 allegedly due to concerns around his strong religious beliefs.

Tanriverdi became widely known to the public in August 2016, when President Recep Erdogan chose him as his new military advisor. The appointment came shortly after the failed coup attempt against the Turkish President; this move indicated Erdogan’s intention to establish a network of supporters and allies in key positions of the country’s administration in order to cement his position in the long-term and diminish any internal threats that might lead to another regime change attempt.

Further to his SADAT Presidency, Tanriverdi was also appointed President of the Turkish-based NGO Association of Justice Defenders back in 2004,, a Group Member of the Union of NGOs of the Islamic World.

What is the SADAT International Defense Consultancy?

SADAT is a private registered company, providing Security and Military Training and Consultancy Services. It was founded in 2012 by Tanriverdi who has also been serving as President since then. The personnel is exclusively composed of Army Officers and Non-Commissioned Officers of the Turkish Armed Forces from all ranks, with many having a Special Forces background. As clearly stated the company is not providing services to individuals; SADAT is working entirely with branches of the Turkish government and possibly with fellow Muslim governments which hold friendly ties with Ankara.

The company’s Vision and Mission is to “reorganize or modernize the Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces of Islamic Countries in a modern and effective sense to ensure National Defense and Internal Security.” Inspired by the concept of Private Military and Defense Companies, which has thrived in Western Countries over the past decades, Tanriverdi came up with a plan to establish a Turkish Private Military Company that would fit in an anti-Western religious and political context.

The ex-military personnel, which should be estimated at approximately a hundred individuals directly employed by SADAT, is reportedly utilizing its broad experience in the Turkish Armed Forces to deliver services ranging from urban warfare operations training to training courses for helicopter pilots.

A Counterweight to the Wagner Group?

Even though SADAT has been presented by mainstream media, as the Turkish equivalent to the Russian Wagner Group, there are some critical differences. Wagner has managed to establish its presence out of nothing. The term Wagner today refers to any Russian-affiliated foreign fighter operating abroad. There is no official record about Wagner, its activity is not advertised online or through other means and there is no company registered under that name either in Russia or abroad.

The “Wagner Group” is a ghost entity pushing Kremlin’s interests overseas, and since it doesn’t officially exist, the Russian President and his administration can’t be held accountable for the activity of the Group under any circumstances.

On the other hand, SADAT does officially exist and there is nothing secret about its presence and area of operations. Headquartered in Istanbul and under Tanrverdi’s leadership the company does not seem to be keeping anything covert about its very existence. The company is publicly advertising its activity through its website and the press. There is a precise organizational chart and an approximate estimation on the number of personnel acting as consultants and advisors.

In this respect there is no point comparing the ambiguous and shadowy Wagner group to the commercial entity registered in the issue 8015 of “Turkish Trade Registry Gazette” and doing business under the name “SADAT International Defense Consulting Construction Industry and Trade Inc.”

Evaluating Claims of SADAT in Libya

Until now there have been many claims that SADAT has a presence in Libya, and the latest AFRICOM report comes to further strengthen these assumptions. Tanriverdi for his part has repeatedly rejected these claims. The most probable scenario is that SADAT personnel could be actively involved in the Libyan front, however no traceable connection between the company and operators deployed to Libya should be expected.

The fact that SADAT is gaining international attention could also prove to be a very useful tool for massive recruitment if played right by the Turkish authorities. In the case of Wagner we have seen that the wide media coverage urged hundreds of Syrians to rush to sign up with Wagner for a deployment in Libya.

We should not expect by no means an open recruitment process for fighters willing to fight in Libya or Syria on behalf of the company; however the public talk around SADAT could prompt several individuals to become involved in one of the Turkish fronts abroad, with the company acting strictly as an initial point of contact, if there is any involvement in the whole process at all.

In the case of Wagner, President Vladimir Putin, a mastermind in psychological operations and political manipulation, undoubtedly managed to turn the whole Wagner story to his advantage. We only need to stand by and see if Ankara could exploit the noise around SADAT in a similar way at this particular moment.

L'articolo New Report Says 5,000 Turkish-Backed Syrian Rebels Deployed to Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Morocco and Egypt recently presided over joint talks between rival leaders in Libya and it’s been reported that both sides have been able to secure some substantial breakthroughs, particularly regarding elections and uniting rival governments.

Dubbed the Libyan Dialog, the talks brought together five participants from the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), which controls the capital, Tripoli, as well as the northwest, and five figures from the House of Representatives (HoR), based in Tobruk.

An Agreement Seems Possible

Although the HoR’s Idris Omran did not provide further details on the objectives that both sides agreed to, the two groups said that they would meet again during the final week of September to finalize mechanisms that would implement the agreement.

Consultations also took place in Montreux, Switzerland, on September 7 to 9 under the auspices of the Center for Humanitarian Dialog. Stephanie Williams, the UN’s interim envoy to Libya, told Al-Jazeera that the Montreux talks “would provide a basis for all responsible Libyan stakeholders to forge the way forward.”

Elections in Libya May Soon Become a Reality

While it was not clear if any of the discussions in Morocco included binding agreements, members of both delegations said that one of the key points of agreement was to split positions in the ruling Council of State from among Libya’s three geographic regions.

Negotiators are due to meet in Switzerland on September 17, and they have agreed that elections must be held on a mutually acceptable constitutional framework.

Considering the GNA and the LNA, led by General Khalifa Haftar, have been engaged in a long civil war that has allowed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin to take advantage of the chaos in the war-torn country, this is a remarkable achievement.

If both sides play their cards carefully, they could realistically end the Libyan war in the near future.

Peace Seemed Unlikely Only a Few Months Ago

Steps toward peace did not seem possible months ago. In June, increased Turkish support allowed pro-GNA forces to seize control of northwest Libya, which devastated Haftar’s plans to occupy Tripoli. The strategic city of Sirte, which could provide Russia with a gateway to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast, also became a bone of contention between Ankara and Moscow at one stage. Until the war is over, a siege on the city still seems possible.

However, the Geneva talks will be much harder than the ones held last week. Arab League head Ahmed Aboul Gheit said that Arab states must oppose Turkish interference during a meeting in Cairo. Yet it is almost certain that both Turkey and Russia will want a stake in determining Libya’s future.

The Arab Weekly reports that the GNA was opposed to Turkey’s withdrawal from Libya and it is likely this issue will cause a stir in future peace talks. They added that Erdoğan was unhappy about being excluded from the Moroccan talks.

Russia and Turkey May Jeopardize Peace

Russian and Turkish ambitions in Libya could become an obstacle to peace and both nations may carve the country up between them. For example, Turkey could acquiesce to Russian control of al-Jufra in return for Sirte. It will be interesting to see if Ankara and Moscow fulfill their territorial aspirations in the region and how far they are willing to go to do so.

The Libyan people are also crucial for peace to become a reality. This was acknowledged by Russian Ambassador Aleksei Erkho. Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace believes that Libya’s citizens have played an active role in making peace possible through initiatives like successfully convincing young people in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia.

Therefore, the Libyan people themselves must provide their consent for any peace agreement.

The Libyan Dialog has helped guarantee the beginning of the end of the Libyan conflict, but there are still many stages to go yet.

L'articolo Why the Libyan Dialog is the First Step Toward Peace in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

On Friday, August 21, Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) issued a statement saying its leader Fayez al-Sarraj had given instructions to “all military forces to immediately ceasefire and all combat operations in all Libyan territories.”

Temporary Ceasefire

The Tripoli-based government’s plead for a truce was unexpected and soon received a similar call for a truce from Aguila Saleh Issa, the leader of an eastern-based parliament aligned to Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA).

The two sides mentioned the growing spread of the coronavirus in Libya as grounds for bringing the armed conflict to a temporary halt. Although with scarce testing, daily Covid-19 cases across the country rose by the hundreds in recent weeks, reaching a total of over 8,000 confirmed cases and more than 150 confirmed deaths.

The ongoing Libyan conflict has left the North African country with impaired infrastructure, not least its healthcare system, after almost a decade of relentless fighting. On Thursday, August 20, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) warned that the humanitarian crisis in Libya has deepened, amid the country’s abrupt cuts in oil production, blockades of its ports and, more recently, the spread of the coronavirus. The Red Cross also called for negotiations between the warring factions.

Skepticism in Sirte

Although the mutual call for peace shed some hope in the ravaged country, adding to the Libyan National Oil Company statement that same day that it was ready at last to resume oil operations at a rate close to the pre-COVID-19 rate, many people in Sirte were still skeptical.

The call for a ceasefire itself came in a time where the two belligerents’ armed forces were both heavily settled near the central city of Sirte. The coastal city, which also nears the country’s major oil terminals, became the conflict’s point of focus recently, bearing the new frontlines as Haftar’s forces settled around the city after the Turkish intervention pushed the LNA back from Tripoli in June.

Haftar’s forces, backed by Egypt and the UAE, among others, were attempting to seize Tripoli, where the GNA is based, for over a year since April 2019. Although recognized by the United Nations, the GNA mainly benefits from the support of Turkey and Qatar.

‘Deceptive Calm’

During a visit to Tripoli last week, Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas warned of a “deceptive calm” and noted that both sides were still arming themselves “on a massive scale” although there hadn’t been much confrontation in recent months. Maas also reiterated the United States’ call for a demilitarized zone in Sirte and Jufra.

Although there has been relatively little fighting since June, Turkey and the GNA seem poised to make further advances, even after Haftar’s forces withdrew to Sirte.

The LNA did not quickly respond to Sarraj’s call for peace on Friday, but on Sunday it said it deemed the new ceasefire attempt dubious.

“The initiative that Sarraj signed is for media marketing,” said Ahmed Mismari, the LNA’s spokesman. “There is a military build-up and the transfer of equipment to target our forces in Sirte.” Mismari even noted that the LNA was “ready to respond to any attempted attack on its positions around the coastal city of Sirte, and Jufra, to the south,” according to Reuters.

Too Many Actors

Observers have long argued that the conflict of Libya could not be solved by military means. But given the level of foreign meddling in the country, it has proven even harder to resolve diplomatically.

Turkey, who is at odds with its Mediterranean neighbors over energy reserves in the basin, soon sided with the Tripoli-based GNA, who promptly signed a maritime boundaries contract in favor of Ankara, while the United Arab Emirates and Egypt openly back Khalifa Haftar’s military rule. Other major powers, such as France and Russia, have also been accused of meddling in favor of Haftar.

In June, Egypt was among the first to warn the GNA —and Turkey— that attacks on Sirte and Jufra constituted crossing a “red line” that would systematically trigger an Egyptian military intervention.

Many Unsuccessful Peace Attempts So Far

All attempts to bring about peace to the Libyan people after almost a decade of war —most recently, the Berlin Summit earlier in January— stalled so far, not least because of the pressure exerted by foreign actors, on whom either factions heavily depend, to further their geopolitical and sometimes economic interests.

No longer than the following weekend, however, on Sunday, August 23, guns were fired in Tripoli to disperse hundreds of protesters who had gathered near the headquarters of the GNA to demonstrate over their squalid living conditions amid the current sanitary and economic crises.

L'articolo Glimmer of Hope for Peace in Libya, but Fear Lingers proviene da InsideOver.

On August 6, Greece and Egypt signed an historical deal in an unexpected move, demarcating their maritime boundaries, and essentially declaring their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). Several geopolitical factors across the Eastern Mediterranean and the Libyan front have contributed to this development, which could trigger a new round of tension in the region.

A Late But Important Step for Athens

Surprisingly, Greece has been one of the few countries to remain particularly idle in the initial demarcation of the EEZ. In a region where significant energy reserves have been confirmed, Greece has previously omitted to take the necessary steps in order to proceed to exploration and drilling in the respective area in contrast to numerous other countries nearby like Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Israel.

Now, the current Greek administration has taken remarkable action in a field that has been lifeless for decades. Last June Greece came to an agreement with Italy with regards to the maritime boundaries in the Ionian Sea and now Athens has signed a very important deal with Cairo. It should be noted here that in the case of Italy the negotiations have started in 1977 and in the case of Egypt in 2004.

Specific terms of each deal seem to be unfavorable for Greece: for instance in the latest one, 56 to 44 percent of territory was apportioned in favor of Egypt instead of following the equidistant principle. However, the current Greek government is seeking out to gain political capital through these moves, emphasizing that a necessary step for the Greek economy and the international standing of the country has been finally taken after such a long delay.

Geopolitical Gains for Both Sides

The Greek-Egyptian deal comes at a moment when both countries have a lot to gain from this development. On the one hand Greece manages to de facto override the so-called Turkish-Libyan MoU, as the coordinates of the deal are covering a major part of the area established in the questionable pact between Ankara and Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). Once the deal and the resulting map have been officially published and adopted by the United Nations, then Athens will have also cancelled de jure the Turkish claims.

At the same time, Egypt creates an unwanted situation for both Turkey and the GNA; we should consider here that the ongoing Libyan conflict has gradually developed into a proxy war between Ankara and Cairo, therefore any action that could worsen the Turkish position and standing in the region. This is definitely welcomed by Egyptian President Sisi. The domestic politics of Egypt are also relevant to this decision, considering that several elements of the Egyptian opposition are firmly supported by Turkey. The Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni Muslim organization with expanded popular support from a part of the Egyptian population, poses a significant internal threat for President Sisi; it is well known that the Brotherhood receives considerable financial, logistical and political support from Turksih President Erdogan. Since the Turkish support is a key factor for the power of the Brotherhood in Egypt, every blow to Ankara’s prestige is a push towards the stability and prevalence of Sisi’s regime.

Turkey’s Angry Reaction

Turkey responded fiercely, shortly after the announcement of the deal. Erdogan stated after Friday prayers that Greece acted in a deceptive way and the that the deal is worthless. The Turkish President also claimed that he backed down after the recent provocative actions in the Aegean Sea as a gesture of good will and just because of the German intervention. He also suggested that new drilling activity will soon start in the suggested area, while Turkish vessels are once again sailing within the Cypriot EEZ now. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has also used similar rhetoric, describing the deal null and void, with Turkish Press encouraging these claims.

Finally, just after the announcement by the Greek-Egyptian side, the Antalya Navtex Station issued a NAVTEX advising that a region between the Greek islands of Kastelorizo and Rhodes will be used for a Turkish gunnery exercise on August 10 and 11. The Navigational Telex has alerted the Hellenic Armed Forces and has prompted the Hellenic Navy to closely monitor the area.

There Are Potential Issues with the Deal

The agreement with Egypt is being promoted by the Greek administration and most of the major country media as a huge national success. Even though the deal could be perceived as a smart move to essentially cancel the Turkish-GNA MoU, and finally boost the Greek presence in the eastern Mediterranean, the terms and specifics of the agreement raise some substantial concerns.

One is that the deal excludes the area east of the Meridian after 28° East; even though there have been disagreements between Cairo and Athens, and reportedly those disagreements have blocked the two parties from reaching a deal all this time, the main point of concern has been the island complex of Kastelorizo. But surprisingly Athens has also decided to leave out a part of Rhodes, a major Greek island westwards, in the proximity of Turkey.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias stated that this move would leave space for further negotiations in the future among Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and ideally Turkey. However the Greek move could be interpreted as a way to achieve a desired balance for the Greek Government. It is a way of cancelling the already disputed Turkish-Libyan MoU, gaining political capital in-country, but at the same time avoiding the area that has been the main friction point with Ankara and therefore indicating that there is the intention to cooperate and work on a possible bilateral agreement with the “troubling neighbor”.

Unintentionally Empowering Turkey?

In potential future talks, this latest move from Athens has actually provided Ankara with an additional negotiating card, since leaving parts of the islands out of the EEZ agreement actually aligns with the Turkish allegation that islands are entitled to limited EEZ rights. Taking this line of thought thought further and keeping in mind the unofficial trilateral meeting among Greece, Turkey and Germany prior to the aimless tension incident of late July, one could say that a pretext for a Greek-Turkish deal could be unofficially already on the table of negotiations, with the surrounding tension being probably used just to manipulate the domestic audiences of each country. The developments to follow in the next weeks and months will confirm or disprove this claim.

L'articolo The Landmark Greek-Egyptian Deal and the Turkish Factor proviene da InsideOver.

Aware of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambitions in both Libya and the Middle East, Egypt and its partners have supposedly stepped up their effort to thwart Turkey on the diplomatic front and in Syria and Iraq.

Although the Egyptian Government currently enjoys a constructive relationship with Damascus, Cairo, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also focused on the Syrian Kurds. According to Al-Monitor, Egypt has now sent troops to Idlib, the rebel-held area where Ankara has strengthened its military presence to prevent the Syrian Army from advancing.

Is Egypt Advancing into Syria?

Al-Monitor reports that Kamal Amer, who heads the Egyptian Parliament’s Defense and National Security Committee, denied the report. The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights also stated that its local sources had failed to verify this development.

Regardless of whether these reports are true, it would appear that Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are forming a front to contain the threat that Turkey poses to the Middle East, and it has emerged due to the strained relationship that these three nations have had with Ankara since 2011.

Abu Dhabi and Riyadh both voiced their disapproval at Erdoğan after he declared his support for the Arab Spring of 2011. After Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, was ousted through a military coup led by then Defense Minister Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo’s relations with Turkey began to sour.

The Egyptian-Emirati-Saudi Alliance Has Long Been in the Making

Last June, the Emirati ambassador to the US disclosed the UAE’s close cooperation with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) funded by the American billionaire Sheldon Adelson. It has many anti-Turkish sentiments and its chairman, Mark Dubowitz, wrote on Twitter that he wanted the July 2016 coup against Erdoğan to succeed.

Although the Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front’s existence cannot be disputed, the question remains- will it be successful?

The front can serve a useful purpose in counterbalancing the growing interest Turkey has over Syria and Libya. The red line that Egypt has declared at Sirte and al-Jufra in Libya has prevented the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) from advancing further in the war-torn country.

Could an Egypt-Emirates-Saudi Front Succeed?

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan traveled to Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco after a July 27 trip to Egypt, where he reaffirmed Saudi support for Egypt in the Libyan war. This support may be useful to Cairo as the Libyan conflict continues to escalate.

Although the Arab world has not completely resolved its differences with Israel, the Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front earlier this year welcomed US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for the Middle East. The Jerusalem Post reports that the Saudi Foreign Ministry of Affairs called it a ‘comprehensive resolution to the Palestinian cause.’

Meanwhile, Erdoğan denounced the plan due to the impact it could have on Palestine.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE see Iran as the most pressing security challenge and view Israel as a powerful ally in containing Tehran’s regional ambitions. Therefore, the Egyptian-Saudi-Emirates alliance could prevent Jerusalem from being threatened by both Turkey and Iran in the long-term.

Should the US support an Egypt-Emirates-Saudi Front?

The only problem that the Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front has is whether it will enjoy American support in the future. Whilst Trump views Saudi Arabia as a useful ally in his plan to counter the threat Tehran poses to the Middle East, he is also closely aligned to the Turkish President’s views on the GNA.

However, Egypt supports General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA).

Both scenarios have the potential to create a conflict of interest for the Trump administration, and the US President’s support for Erdoğan in Libya could strain his relationship with Saudi Arabia.

The Egypt-Emirates-Saudi front has a lot of potential to contain Turkey, but it would be even stronger if it could depend upon consistent US support. Washington has found itself in a difficult position supporting the GNA in Libya whilst supporting Saudi Arabia’s effort to contain Iran and Turkey elsewhere. It is unclear how the Trump administration can untangle this web and establish a coherent and effective position.

L'articolo Can an Egyptian-Emirati-Saudi Alliance Contain Turkey in the Middle East? proviene da InsideOver.