The German warship FGS Hamburg is en route to join the EU-led Mission Irini. As the German Navy announced, the warship left the port of Wilhelmshaven on August 4 to join the task force. The deployed forces of Operation Irini, form a coalition with primary mission to monitor any illicit movements related to the Libyan civil war and implement the UN arms embargo in the North African country.

Putting the latest developments in a wider context, one must admit that Berlin is clearly trying to showcase that the German role is critical not only in the field of diplomacy but also in the developments on the ground — or in this case in the developments at sea.

FGS Hamburg and the Operational Upgrade of the Mission

FGS Hamburg is a Type 124 Class Guided Missile Frigate (FFG). With a displacement of 5800 tons, FGS Hamburg comes as a considerable addition to the HS Spetsai frigate of the Hellenic Navy and the ITS San Giorgio of the Italian Navy, which are already deployed in the area. The armament of the ship consists of a Mark 41 Vertical Launching System with RIM-66 Standard medium-range surface-to-air Missiles and RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles. Four secondary missile launching systems (Mark 141 and Mark 49) can be also found in the frigate, while OTO Melara 76 mm and Rheinmetall MLG 27 mm machine guns are included in the main weapon systems of the ship. Thales and Atlas Electronic L-long rage and surface radar systems are also used by the FGS Hamburg and will provide an additional benefit to the monitoring power and capabilities of the deployed assets. Finally, 2 Naval Helicopters Westland Sea Lynx Mk.88 will be stationed on the ship for the duration of the deployment.

Apparently the addition of FGS Hamburg to the mission contributes drastically to the operational capabilities of the task force but at the same time Berlin is making a political statement, over-stressing its re-emerging role in the new status quo of the troubled Mediterranean region.

Berlin Looks into Boosting its Role in the Mediterranean

FGS Hamburg will be part of the Operation Irini for five months, with 250 navy personnel being reportedly onboard. Prior to the deployment of FGS Hamburg, Germany has been contributing to the mission with only one P-3C Orion aircraft. The decision for the deployment of the German Navy frigate comes at a moment when Berlin is trying to boost its role in the Mediterranean in several fronts.

Since early 2020, Germany has been playing a pivotal role in the developments of the Libyan conflict During the Berlin Conference, held on January 19, 2020, Chancellor Angela Merkel has hosted a meeting where all the major regional players participated. The ultimate objective of the conference has been to assist the opposing sides coming to an agreement and setting the context for the steps forward, in order peace to be established and the state-building process to start promptly. The conference has addressed the key regional and international factors that have been fueling the crisis, but at the same it highlighted the significance of the German element in international politics.

Berlin as a Gatekeeper of Regional Balance

Following the recent escalation between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea in late July, Berlin has once again emerged as a mediator and a gatekeeper of the regional balance. Germany not only intervened in the aftermath of the provocative Turkish NAVTEX but — as the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu divulged — Berlin has also organized an undisclosed trilateral meeting at some point before mid-July, among Greece, Turkey and Germany.

Last week, Germany took further steps to stress its role in the Libyan de-escalation process. Following the resignation of the UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, discussions have been taking place for the successor of the Lebanese academic and the very structure of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The US has reportedly tried to promote a specific candidate to overtake Salame’s role, but Germany responded via Dr. Christoph Heusgen, Germany’s Permanent Representative in the UN. Dr. Heusgen stressed that the UN Secretary-General should nominate the candidate without any US interference.

German Controversies Caused by Berlin’s Previous Actions

The tension in the Libyan front and in the Eastern Mediterranean also coincide with a critical moment in German politics. Since July 1 and until the end of the year, Germany holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Merkel’s close ally, Ursula von der Leyen is currently serving as the President of the European Commission, while Merkel herself is gradually moving to the end of her term without any intention to run for another one in 2021, as per her own statements. In this particular timing, both German institutions and Merkel would like to emphasize the stabilizing role of their country in a regional and international context.

On the other hand, besides the mediation efforts and military support that Berlin has been pursuing in order to secure stability in MENA and the Levant, controversy has been raised with regards to the arms deals that Germany has approved since the start of the year. According to data available from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), Berlin has proceeded forward on arm deals with some of the major foreign actors involved in the Libyan crisis, of a total value of approximately €331 million, specifically €308.2 million with Egypt, €15.1 million with Turkey and €7.7 million with the UAE, respectively. Such a move amid the escalation in the Libyan civil war and knowing the role that the aforementioned countries in the conflict hold has prompted several prominent accusations of misconduct and hypocrisy against Germany.

L'articolo German Navy Boosts Mediterranean Presence with Increased Commitment to Operation Irini proviene da InsideOver.

In the debate regarding an increased involvement of Germany’s Bundeswehr, Defense Minister Kramp-Karrenbauer has proposed a first potential destination.

According to Kramp-Karrenbauer, the Bundeswehr’s current status allows for new missions abroad at this stage. “We would be able today to take on additional foreign assignments,” she said on Monday during a visit to an Airborne Brigade. However, realistically the Bundeswehr would need to 2031 carry ten percent of NATO’s military burden, a goal Kramp-Karrenbauer expressed in previews weeks. To accomplish this goal, she has pledged that Germany will gradually increase its defense budget in the meantime. By 2031, Germany should then have reached the agreed-upon two percent of its GDP on military spending.

Kramp-Karrenbauer’s plan now is based on France’s desire to “broaden the fight against terrorism” in West African Mali. The actual counterterrorism operation there was “currently conducted solely by France”, while the Bundeswehr, who is also present, has only been training domestic military personal.  Nonetheless, the situation there was “also with regard to the local armed forces, the Malian forces and others, not an easy one,” Kramp-Karrenbauer stated. In order to extend the Bundeswehr’s mandate in the region, she will seek the Bundestag’s approval (as under German law Germany’s army can only be deployed if parliament votes in favor of it).

While Kramp-Karrenbauer says there has not been a direct request by the French, she was nonetheless cognizant that “we must be prepared for our ally and our partners to respond to such concerns faster.”

Regarding the criticism of the Parliamentary Commissioner of the Armed Forces Hans-Peter Bartels, according to which the army was lacking equipment and staff for major military tasks she responded: “We know that we have to do more, but we are on the way.”

The Airborne Brigade AKK paid a visit consists a total of around 4,100 soldiers, in which all the Bundeswehr paratroopers are united, was “proof that we are in a position to conduct such missions”. The paratroopers were a “very special group” who had been utilized in the past to react quickly, for example, in evacuations “where it is important to react swiftly.”

Kramp-Karrenbauer’s did not stop her tour there. Three other facilities followed and it a Defense Minister, who talks to the soldiers and lays out a new vision that is not only a refreshing sight but desperately needed. Mali marks a good starting point for this paradigm shift.

It has been seven years since Tuareg rebels and Islamist terrorist groups in north and central Mali attempted to topple the government. Back then France sent combat troops and prevented the jihadists from completely taking over the West African country. Subsequently, the UN stationed a 15,000-strong peacekeeping force in northern and central Mali. Its task is to supervise a peace treaty between the Tuareg and the government. The approximately 800 German soldiers in Gao are part of this UN operation.

However, seven years after the start of the UN deployment, the situation in Mali has not improved – on the contrary: the country is becoming increasingly unsafe, the casualty figures are rising with 204 peacekeepers killed out of the 15000.

Nonetheless, continue to stabilize the country is important as the terrorist threat needs to be contained without spreading over into the neighboring countries.

Germany could play a vital role here in the future if AKK can transform Germany’s Zeitgeist regarding its military.

L'articolo More Military in Mali as German Defense Minister Pledges Increased Involvement proviene da InsideOver.

The elections in Saxony and Brandenburg were the latest success stories of Germany’s far-right party, the AfD. And the question amongst politicians remains: how to deal with this phenomenon, that seemingly overcomes a long-standing law in German politics: there is no life on the CDU’s right.

Despite Germany’s history, the country has had the occasional guest appearance of right-wing extremist groups in parliament. The Republicans, DVU or the NPD, all attempted to become part of the political discourse. They failed miserably. Daily political life exposed their inadequacies almost immediately. The AfD has altered this track record.

When the AfD was founded in 2013, it was considered an alternative for voters who felt alienated by Chancellor Merkel’s dogmatic way of policymaking.

Economic liberalism and above all by the fight against the Euro were on top of the party’s agenda. The potential was omnipresent, had the CDU under Merkel left centre-right and transformed into a centre-left party. With a rise in popularity, the party gained traction amongst rather dubious individuals also. As a result, the party’s founder, Professor Lucke, lost a power struggle with the populist right within his party in 2015. Paradigm shifts away from Euro-scepticism and Greece bailouts towards integration, Islam and refugees followed.

With unexpected success – despite having moved even further to the right since its foundation. But the increasing radicalization of the party and its positions has not been a detriment. Quite the contrary. In 2014, for the first time, the AFD succeeded in becoming a member of a supraregional parliament in the European elections. Since then, the AfD has managed to enter all sixteen state parliament and established itself on the federal level also; becoming the largest opposition party in the Bundestagswahl of 2017 with 12.6%. Before the election success in east Germany, the party reached 11% at the European Elections.

The party’s gains since 2013 have been attributed to the mobilisation of former non-voters as well as protest voters, disappointed and disenfranchised by governing parties, particularly CDU and FDP as well as, to a lesser extent, the SPD and The Left. In recent elections, however, political scientists have observed the emergence of regular voters, who identify themselves with the AfD’s ideology of refugee immigration being a danger for the cultural homogeneity of society.

However, the AfD remains a schizophrenic party. Classical Conservativism, economic-liberalism and Christian-fundamentalist forces and the one side, mainly located in western Germany as well as on the federal level, which is being supplemented by nationalism, homophobic, anti-feminist, anti-Semitic and historical revisionist positions, as well as the occasional Neo-Nazism support – mainly, but not limited to, east Germany.

Particularly the east German AfD has been infiltrated by extremism. Here, its members openly fraternise with right-wing extremist groups and neo-Nazis. The latest example is Brandenburg’s AfD chair Andreas Kalbitz, who, in the past, had been cultivating memberships in neo-Nazi groups. Not a stigma in the AfD, nor east Germany. One week ago, he led the AfD into the Brandenburg state parliament.

But the extreme right’s poster child remains Thuringia’s Björn Höcke. Höcke has made a habit of making statements linked to Neo-Nazism and is known for his proclivity play down Germany’s role in World War II – to put it mildly. It has gone so far, that other party members have tried to expel Höcke. With no success. Next month, he will be Thuringia’s top candidate and is likely to be responsible for yet another AfD election success.

Kalbitz as well as Höcke are leading figures within the party and represent a group named “Der Flügel” (The Wing). It accounts for 40% of all AfD members in east Germany.

The Saxony and Brandenburg election results raised the question of how much longer the AfD is willing to be an opposition and protest party. So far, the political dictum for all German parties has been to isolate the AfD. However, for the party to become a conceivable option to CDU and SPD, the extreme elements within the AfD would have to transform or disappear. The status quo nor the recent success indicate that the AfD is seeking to transform anytime soon.

Historically, newly founded parties only survived if they succeeded in repelling their radical elements or keeping them at an infinitesimal level.

At the beginning of the 1990s, the Greens had former members of communist splinter groups in their party. As a result, other parties chastised the Green and were unwilling to even consider cooperation. Over the years, this influence was gradually marginalized. It allowed the Greens to enter a coalition with the SPD in 1998. The Greens had emancipated themselves and arrived, at the time, at the apogee of their power.

The SED, which is now The Left, conducted a similar transformation. A Communist platform in the early phase, which was classified as extremist by the constitutional protection, has lost its influence in the party. Although individual members continue to maintain contact with anti-constitutional groups in the opinion of Germany’s intelligence service, they are not the mainstream of a party long since arrived in Germany and has held government positions on a state level.

However, there is an important distinction between these two examples and today’s AfD: ideology. Due to its history, Germany had almost been impervious to right-wing rhetoric and even conservative elements can deliberately be interpreted as 1940s propaganda. Meanwhile, the extreme left and the idea of a Marxist Utopia, has always had its market.

While an AfD coalition with neo-Nazi elements is rightfully out of the question, even a strong right-leaning conservative approach may be insufficient for the party to redeem itself.

Which raises the question: will there ever be a future for the party besides an opposition force? The answer lies in the other parties’ modus operandi. If the CDU does not reverse its course once Merkel ceased to be chancellor and if a coalition with the Greens is suddenly en vogue due to the climate hysteria, the chances of an AfD becoming stronger than the major parties in east Germany is conceivable. But in a parliamentary system based on majorities, the AfD would face the same conundrum again: finding a partner.

On the federal level, the party is likely to increase its support as well, but likely never to the extent of its eastern branch – unless it says au revoir to its radical elements and becomes a viable alternative for conservatives and former CDU voters.

Until then the AfD will remain a party with strong voter support but out of power. And while this paradigm shift is unlikely to occur while the party continuous to receive this much support, Germany will face a political Groundhog Day at every election: major parties lose support, the AfD gains. Outrage. Calls for a new strategy against the AfD.

L'articolo Unsuccessful Despite Being Successful – Who are Germany’s AfD? proviene da InsideOver.