Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will step down as the CDU’s chair and a potential candidate for the chancellorship in 2021. Kramp-Karrenbauer first communicated her decision to the CDU’s presidium on Monday before addressing the public. Nonetheless, she will continue to work and organize the transition towards the party’s next chancellor candidate and hand over the party chair in the summer.

Chancellor Angela Merkel will keep Kramp-Karrenbauer in her cabinet. At the CDU presidium’s meeting on Monday morning, the chancellor expressly spoke out for Kramp-Karrenbauer to remain the Defense Minister, before thanking her for her service as the party’s chair.

Criticism Of Kramp-Karrenbauer Over Thuringia Election

Kramp-Karrenbauer was sharply criticized for managing the crisis after the recent controversial Minister-President election in Thuringia. FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich was elected Prime Minister last Wednesday in the state parliament in Erfurt—and also by the CDU and the AfD, whose parliamentary group is led by the party’s extreme right leader Björn Höcke. Kemmerich was subsequently massively criticized for accepting the election’s results, which he would not have won without the AfD’s votes. He resigned the following day. In the aftermath, Kramp-Karrenbauer stated the Thuringia CDU had acted against the federal party’s directive, thus insinuating subordination and making herself look like a chair without power.

What Does Kramp-Karrenbauer’s Departure Mean For The AfD?

After the announced withdrawal of Kramp-Karrenbauer, the AfD sees opportunities for the two parties to come closer. AfD parliamentary group leader Alexander Gauland said on Monday: “It is completely nonsensical and unrealistic not to want to work with the AfD in the long run.” AfD chair Jörg Meuthen and deputy chair Beatrix von Storch demanded that Chancellor Merkel also resigns.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has been the federal chairman of the CDU since December 2018. Alongside herself, the candidate for chancellor of the Union was repeatedly in discussion with the North Rhine-Westphalian Minister-President Armin Laschet, ex-Union faction leader Friedrich Merz, CSU chair Markus Söder and Health Minister Jens Spahn. So far, none of them has declared the desire to take over the leadership in the summer and likely become the party’s next chancellor candidate. Minister-President and CDU Vice Armin Laschet, who has long been considered a possible candidate for the chancellorship and who leads the largest CDU state association, was not present during the meeting. Friedrich Merz recently gave up his position as Chairman of the Supervisory Board at Blackrock in order to have more time for political work and is favored by an influential, conservative wing within the CDU (“Werte Union”). One can assume that particularly Laschet and Merz are going to position themselves in the next few days.

Kramp-Karrenbauer Known For Weak Leadership

Kramp-Karrenbauer has long been accused of weak leadership within the party. At the Leipzig party conference in November, she openly offered a vote against her own position, to bring about the unity of the party. Thereupon she received long applause. The Thuringian situation then gave all of her internal party-political opponents an excuse to increase the pressure to which she ultimately succumbed.

Whoever becomes Kramp-Karrenbauer’s successor will have to address the party’s future position on the AfD and Die Linke, which should not be easy. There are members within the CDU who envision cooperating with parts of the AfD, while others categorically reject it. However, the strengthening of Germany’s Greens raises the question of whether or nor the CDU will still be able to govern in the future without a right-wing alliance with the AfD.

One result is already inevitable: The AfD is the big winner as it demonstrated that it has the power to cause a significant crisis while making its party look like the victim of anti-democrats in the process and potentially realigning the CDU’s future course.

L'articolo Germany’s CDU Chair Kramp-Karrenbauer Resigns proviene da InsideOver.

The leaders of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SDP), Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, were awarded a mandate by their party faithful at a recent party conference to discuss with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Christian Democratic Party (CDU) about continuing in government. They also stated what their relatively modest policy demands are.

The SDP is feeling the pressure of remaining in a coalition government with the CDU. A Forsa poll put them on 11 per cent, hitting a low last witnessed in June after previous leader Andrea Nahles quit following their disastrous performance in the European elections. Meanwhile, Merkel’s conservatives gained a percentage point, which left them with a 28 per cent score.

Plummeting poll numbers is certainly one valid reason as to why the SDP feel justified in selecting new leaders. Bloomberg discovered that they are trailing behind the Greens, whose support remained steady at 21.5 per cent. For the last 10 to 14 years, Germany’s traditional centre-left party has been a junior coalition partner to the CDU, targeting the centre-ground and helping Merkel retain office. Walter-Borjans and Esken are both staunch critics of the coalition and they might be able to help their party claw back support from their rivals. They said that under the current Chancellor, Germany is stuck in a ‘neo-liberal wilderness.’

The last time that the SDP won a decent vote share was in the 2002 federal elections when former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder won 38.5 per cent of the vote. Following his removal from office when his party won 34.2 per cent of the vote in the 2005 federal election, their popularity has slowly declined. With Merkel due to retire in 2021, many on the centre-left may be sensing an opportunity to re-establish themselves as a radical alternative.

The SDP leaders want their coalition partners to invest more in infrastructure, introduce tougher climate protection measures and increase the minimum wage. But the CDU have said they will not renegotiate the 2018 coalition deal, which means their centre-left partners risk triggering a year-and-a-half of government infighting before the next federal election. They could also destroy their coalition with Merkel. But both coalition partners are taking huge gambles if they start shifting from the centre-ground.

 As Luuk Molthof wrote for the London School of Economics, the CDU are also finding it hard to resist the temptation of moving further to the right in the face of shrinking support.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the current Chair of the CDU, is keen to please the conservative faction in her party, who are blaming the Chancellor’s open-door refugee policy for poor performances in recent regional elections. This is despite the fact that candidates from both the CDU and the Christian Social Union, the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, criticised the coalition’s refugee policy.

But they did not lose support to the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) Party; instead the Greens won votes from both the CDU and the SDP. This is why both parties would be making a huge mistake in shifting their policy positions. The Greens have managed to reinvent themselves as a centrist party and that is why they are appealing to both conservative and social democratic voters.

Despite pressure from her own party to quit, 59 per cent of Germans want Merkel to remain in office until the next federal election, which proves there is an appetite for centrist politics in Germany.

Shifting further to the left may give the SDP a new identity, but when they are facing stiff competition from both the CDU and the Greens, they risk being pushed out of the centre-ground by becoming more radical. Either way, they are at risk of losing votes. But the CDU would also be making a substantial electoral error if they abandon the centre-ground at a time when their support remains high, despite improving poll positions from both the Greens and the AfD.

L'articolo Should the CDU and the SDP Shift From the Centre-Ground? proviene da InsideOver.

After yet another state election debacle last Sunday in eastern Germany, CDU politician Friedrich Merz has attacked Chancellor Angela Merkel and her lack of leadership. Not only does it violate protocol, but it is also Merz’s latest move as he likely seeks to become his party’s next chancellor candidate. At last.

The latest election result in Thuringia, eastern Germany, can be summed up in two-point: First, the people in the state are seemingly satisfied with Minister-President Ramelow’s work. He remains the Left’s only politicians holding this position. Second, the election was what Friedrich Merz had called a significant “vote of no confidence” against the – still so-called – grand coalition in Berlin.

However, as for many, the latest embarrassment in Thuringia did not come as a surprise to Merz. During several party events across Germany, particularly in the east, he had experienced great displeasure with the CDU and SPD. The crumbling support was, therefore, inevitable.

Now Merz has gone not one but three steps further and has broken with a golden rule within his party: do not criticise the chancellor publicly.

If anyone is cognizant of what Merkel’s doghouse feels like, it is Merz. At the beginning of the century, he used to be one of the most promising figures in the party. However, Merz and Merkel never got along brilliantly. When Merkel took the reins and the chancellorship in 2005, Merz’s prospects nullified, and he would soon after disappears from daily politics.

Last year, when Merkel announced she would not seek another run and would consequently give up the party’s chair, Merz returned. Unfortunately, he lost the race for the chair against Kramp-Karrenbauer. A result, many have begun to regret already.

With Merkel being a lame duck, however, Merz has attempted to reposition himself within the party. Moreover, he has not been shy in calling out Merkel. “We are in a tough situation,” Merz said after the Thuringia elections and continued it was mainly due to “laziness and lack of leadership by the Chancellor” which had “laid over this country like a foggy carpet for years”. It was the main criticism that he perceives at events but also “shared”, before adding that “people ought to expect political leadership and concise statements”. The latter has been one of the major criticisms on Merkel since day one.

Given the circumstances, a continuation of the grand coalition till the end of the legislature period in two years was inconceivable to Merz, he opined on Twitter.

While seemingly utilising the criticising against Merkel, Merz has repeatedly restrained himself from calling out Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), who remains under heavy pressure – mainly due to her own doings. For many, AKK has been a scapegoat for dismal performances of the once so proud major party. However, Merz realises that AKK has pretty much lost her chances of becoming the next chancellor candidate already and so he utilises rather tamed rhetoric, stating that “the party leader has hardly played a negative role in my observation.” He would stand by his support he promises AKK after she became the chair. However, the symbolism here is obvious: The less AKK is at fault, the more Merkel is solely responsible. A narrative, Merz has mastered to orchestrate.

Merz is a highly successful individual. His professional career does not depend on a parliamentary post. Bringing himself back into the equation leads one to the conclusion that he seeks to obtain the chancellor candidacy. His attacks on Merkel, while raising his profile, can be seen as sweet revenge.

Moreover, while Kramp-Karrenbauer made a mistake by becoming Germany’s Defence Minister, an office that has pretty much detrimental to all its previous holders, Merz decided to stay in the background and conduct commentary on the party’s appearances. It has been a wise decision in a time where the party continues to suffer. And the narrative of the party’s saviour has just begun. It is about time.

L'articolo Germany’s CDU and the Hope for Better Days to Come proviene da InsideOver.

The states of Saxony and Brandenburg have voted. And while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) appear to display an ill-advised form of relief, both are left with a big ask: to find stable coalitions and further isolate the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Both goals are likely to fail.

The elections in the eastern German states of Saxony and Brandenburg have caused the latest defeat for CDU chair Kramp-Karrenbauer and her government partner SPD. The CDU claimed victory despite significant losses (-7.3%). The situation was even worse in Brandenburg, where the party dropped to just 15.6% (-7.4%). Meanwhile, The SPD lost 5.7% in Brandenburg but likely remains in power, while in Saxony, the party plummeted to a record low of 7.7% (-4.7%). September 1st was yet another important win for the AfD. The party gained significant support in both states (Brandenburg: +11.3%, Saxony: +17.8%). A first-time victory, which appeared conceivable in the polls, did not materialise, however – for now.

In Saxony, the CDU received 32.1% of the vote and remained, despite significant losses, the strongest party. The AfD came second with 27.5%. The Left reached 10.4% and the Greens 8.6%. The SPD crashed to historically low of 7.7%, while the FDP failed to reach the 5% stipulation (4.5%).

Saxony’s CDU Minister-President Michael Kretschmer called it, despite the losses, a “really good day” for the state. A good day for “the friendly Saxony”, referring to having just beaten the AfD by 4.6%. His task now will be to form a stable government. However, the continuation of the CDU-SPD coalition is unlikely, as the majority was not maintained. Therefore, a “Kenya coalition” of CDU, SPD, and Greens has emerged as the most conceivable option.

In the state election in Brandenburg, the SPD won with 26.2%. Behind them the AfD with significant gains and 23.5%. The CDU received 15.6%. The SPD-The Left government coalition in Brandenburg was voted out. Minister-President Dietmar Woidke nevertheless reacted positively to the results, stating it was “important to me that Brandenburg remains in good hands.” The task to now form a stable government was a challenge, by his admission. Nonetheless, a now likely coalition of SPD, The Left, and Greens are likely to materialise easier than Kretschmer’s task in Saxony.

The former self-proclaimed party of the eastern German people, The Left, had the worst day in its history in both states. It strengthens the Greens, who will now be a key factor in establishing a coalition in Saxony as well as Brandenburg.

The AfD described its election results as “great success” and announced its claim to political participation. The AfD had “come to stay”, AfD’s top candidate in Brandenburg, Andreas Kalbitz proclaimed visibly exited, while Bundestag faction Weidel spoke of an “excellent result”. In Saxony, 60% of people had voted conservatively. To ignore this trend would be “undemocratic,” Weidel opined. Meanwhile, party spokesman Jörg Meuthen reemphasized his stance that the AfD was “not radical and nor an extremist party” and should, therefore, chastised as such.

However, Sunday left political Germany with two major takeaways in particular.

First, CDU and SPD managed to survive. And while the grand coalition in Berlin certainly has not reinvented itself with yesterday’s results, it has bought itself some time. Despite both suffering severe losses and majorities of the previous five years, their Minister-Presidents remained in power. Meanwhile, the SPD managed to satisfy the 5% threshold in Saxony, thereby mitigating what could have been a worst-case scenario. However, it says something about the major parties’ status quos, if anything but a total disaster as well as preventing a six-year-old AfD to win the election, is assessed as somewhat acceptable.

Second, the new coalitions may not only be volatile, but detrimental in the long run. Particularly in Saxony. Volatile, as a very conservative CDU in Saxony, will negotiate with a hard-left Greens party. Here, the CDU is not only facing compromises that may lead to a loss in the party’s profile, but also internal volatility. The countrywide dictum of a categorical no towards the AfD is not as sacrosanct amongst Saxony’s CDU. Many members may prefer a coalition with the populists. Minister-President Kretschmer is tasked with bridging these ideological gaps without weakening his position. And while in Brandenburg a likely SPD-The Left-Greens government may not sound inconceivable; a three-party coalition will make it much harder for the SPD to materialise its visions. Not to mention that a course to the hard-left does not seem to affirm the voter’s will, as impressively displayed by the AfD’s gains.

The AfD will not govern. And the party does not need to. With the remaining parties desperately trying to find common ground, the opposition is exactly where the AfD seeks to be. It allows them to increase their popularity even further, without the risk of being exposed in an actual government function. This popularity will be provided for by the remaining parties. A CDU, that will likely lose much of its profile if it enters a coalition with the Greens, while and a hard-left SPD government in Brandenburg promises stagnancy in place of progress for the people in a region, where voters have felt left behind, to begin with.

All of it leads to the very same, almost inevitable outcome: The established parties will continue to do the work for the AfD, thereby making a future governing AfD more conceivable than ever. Tomorrow’s loss, indeed.

L'articolo The Implications of Saxony’s and Brandenburg’s Election Results proviene da InsideOver.