Little can shock observers of European politics these days, but on Saturday in Ireland jaws hit the floor. Sinn Féin—a group once synonymous with sectarian violence—won the popular vote in the Irish general election. It marked a seismic shift in the island nation’s political landscape, tearing apart a century of two-party rule.

What Happened In The Irish Election?

Fine Gael—the party of government led by prime minister Leo Varadkar—suffered a stinging electoral rebuke, taking little over one-fifth of the vote. Fianna Fáil—who have alternated national leadership with Fine Gael for 90 years—fared only marginally better. Sinn Féin, long ostracised by Ireland’s political mainstream, won the trust of almost a quarter of all voters.

The result marked a quantum leap for the left-leaning group, whose popularity has been growing gradually for a decade. Bit by bit, they’ve chipped away at their tainted public image, distancing themselves from the IRA terrorists with whom they were once aligned.Sinn Féin’s centrist opponents have not made it easy, invoking incessantly the party’s ugly past. But with the ebbing threat of militant republicanism—a process commenced by 198’s Good Friday peace deal—the stigma of supporting Sinn Féin has receded. 

Ireland’s Younger Generation Doesn’t Attach Stigma To Sinn Fein

Young people—those who’ve growing up in a relatively peaceful Ireland—are not hampered like their parents by the memory of sectarian murder. Instead, like millennials across Europe, their focus is on living conditions, housing costs, healthcare standards, and faltering public services. Far from dwelling on its founding cause in this election of a united Ireland Sinn Féin instead ran a campaign grounded in the here-and-now.

To youngsters still living with the consequences of Ireland’s financial crash, the party offered a radical left-wing agenda. A freeze in rocketing rental costs, new taxes on the rich and a lowering of the state pension age. Beside the establishment’s unapologetically pro-business approach, Sinn Féin promised something the centrists could not: real change. 

Varadkar’s Perspective

Varadkar might well feel hard done by. The Irish economy is, after all, one of Europe’s fastest-growing, with wages on the up and the unemployment rate low. But his financial stewardship has involved biting austerity measures—rarely popular when it comes to the polls. 

Varadkar was also wrong to consider his handling of Brexit a vote winner. Varadkar was instrumental in brokering last year’s agreement on the UK’s EU departure, shielding Irish business from the likely damage of no-deal, but Brexit fell flat on the doorstep—just 1% of those surveyed in a voter exit poll cited it as an important issue. 

In a curious way, however, it was perhaps the absence of a Brexit-scale constitutional question that allowed Sinn Féin to soar. At the UK general election late last year Jeremy Corbyn—the ardently left-wing Labour leader—was roundly beaten. The reason, most agree, was because his domestic agenda was overshadowed by Brexit shortcomings. 

Sinn Féin’s Savvy Campaign

That’s not to detract from Sinn Féin’s campaign. Recognizing their potential with young voters, the group formulated a savvy social media strategy. On Instagram, their message featured in almost half of all election interactions. On Facebook, that figure leapt to 60%, despite spending up to a third less on adverts than rivals in the weeks prior to polling day.

But still, great uncertainty lies ahead. Chastened by poor local and European election results last year, Sinn Féin fielded just 42 candidates for the 160-seat contest—an effort to minimize losses. Despite their astounding success, this limited slate means the group will struggle to form a workable government. Mary Lou McDonald, the party’s leader, will now have to look to Ireland’s smaller parties—the Greens, Labour, and a host of others—in the hope of cobbling together a left-leaning coalition. 

If MacDonald succeeds at this then she will have locked Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil from power for the first time in decades. If she fails then the status quo will endure, though for how long, only time will tell.

L'articolo Sinn Féin’s Success Shocks The Irish Political Establishment proviene da InsideOver.

After helping Boris Johnson deliver Brexit, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has suffered a humiliating defeat as the Feb. 8 election in Ireland comes to a close and results are finalized. In addition to Fine Gael emerging a distant third, Varadkar himself suffered a personal embarrassment by becoming the first sitting Taoiseach in Ireland’s history not to lead polls in his own constituency.

Varadkar’s Record

In 2017, Varadkar became Ireland’s youngest Taoiseach at the age of 38. He was seen as part of a new crop of progressive leaders emerging on the world stage.

But despite his key role in the Brexit negotiations, Varadkar failed to address domestic issues such as housing, which turned the middle class against him. As Mark Landler said, many view Varadkar less as a symbol of progress than of privilege.

Sinn Fein Surges To Win Popular Vote

In a surprising turn of events, the left wing Sinn Fein, which has historical links with the Irish Republican Army, made a remarkable last minute surge, emerging on top in the popular vote. With all the first preference votes counted, the party had garnered 24.5 percent, Fianna Fail 22.2 percent and Vardakar’s Fine Gael a mere 20.9 percent.

This means that in terms of the popular vote, Sinn Fein won the elections. However, because Ireland has a system of proportional representation the party won’t have the largest number of seats by virtue of being a small party. Furthermore, since no party is expected to reach the 80-seat threshold, a coalition government is inevitable.

Varadkar’s Next Move

There is already speculation that Varadkar may try to form a coalition government with Fianna Fail. This would not be a surprising move since Varadkar’s last government was put together following a deal with Fianna Fail and Independent TDs. If the two parties decide to form another coalition, it would mean Sinn Fein would get to play the role of the main opposition party.

However, such an arrangement would be suicidal for both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael since it would mean ignoring the voice of the people who had voted overwhelmingly for Sinn Fein. As one commentator said “Brexit has shown us how difficult it is to ignore the voice of the people, and a third of the electorate voted for Sinn Fein.”

Sinn Fein’s Next Steps

Meanwhile, the leader of Sinn Fein, Mary McDonald, has also been trying to reach out to smaller left wing parties in her attempts to form a government without involving the two main parties. Nonetheless, this will be a tall order because it would require the involvement of almost all the elected members.

The other option would be for one of the two main parties to form a coalition government with Sinn Fein. There are no signs that such a coalition would be impossible, especially after Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin refused to rule out a possible deal between the parties.

Sinn Fein Will Have Significant Power Going Forward

Whatever the case, Sinn Fein cannot be ignored in Irish politics anymore. It will either be in government or in opposition. According to the current projections, it will take 37 seats in the 160 seat Irish Parliament.

Following the party’s surprising performance, McDonald declared “this campaign has been about change and giving Sinn Fein a chance to demonstrate what it feels like when it is led by or has a party of the people in it, that has been the theme of our discussions and conversations. This vote is for Sinn Fein to be in government, for Sinn Fein to make a difference, for Sinn Fein to be tested, for Sinn Fein to deliver.”

Irish Election’s Impact On UK Politics

One of the other facts that cannot be overlooked is the effects of this outcome on UK politics as a whole, especially on the question of independence and EU relations. Sinn Fein has always pursued a policy of Northern Ireland being given a special status in the EU, with the whole island of Ireland remaining in the bloc. On its website, it describes itself as an Irish political party dedicated to the reunification of Ireland and an end to the British jurisdiction over the island.

During the Brexit standoff in 2018, McDonald stated that Irish unity was the best way to stop Brexit. The party also heavily criticized Varadkar by arguing that he had made too many concessions to Johnson during the negotiations for Brexit in terms of the “Irish backstop.”

Clues Of Sinn Fein’s Future Political Actions

The nationalists would be likely to champion a referendum that would lead to the unification of the whole island, since Sinn Fein’s election manifesto stated that “We need a national forum, a Citizens’ Assembly to have the discussion and we need to start the planning for the unity referendum.”

In relation to this, it promised to seek the full implementation of the “Good Friday Agreement”, “Publish a White Paper on Irish unity,” “Establish a Joint Committee on Irish unity” and “Secure a referendum, North and South, on Irish unity.”

At the moment, forming a coalition government will be a complex affair which is likely to take weeks, and it is worth noting that if the negotiations fail, then another election will be called.

L'articolo Ireland’s Political Reality Just Shifted Massively proviene da InsideOver.

Irish Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar took a gamble by recently calling a general election in Ireland. He hoped that his success in resolving the Irish border crisis during the Brexit negotiations, and a healthy economy that has recovered since the 2008 Recession, would result in his party increasing the number of seats it currently holds in the Dáil Éireann, the Republic of Ireland’s lower chamber.

Sinn Fein’s Surprising Electoral Success

However, Sinn Fein, Ireland’s oldest nationalist party, have stormed to power instead. They have broken the two-party system that has dominated Irish politics since the Irish Free State was founded in 1922, which has seen either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail wrestle for power. The party’s President, Mary Lou McDonald, said the 2020 General Election was ‘something of a revolution in the ballot box.’ 

With all first preferences counted, the nationalists achieved a vote share of 24.5 percent compared to 22.2 percent for Fianna Fail and 20.9 percent for Fine Gael. No party will win enough seats for an outright majority. Sinn Fein will now attempt to form a government, although Varadkar has ruled out a coalition with the nationalists due to differences over tax policies and the group’s Irish Republican Army (IRA) terrorist group links.

‘Significant Incompatibilities’ Exist

Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin did not rule out working with Sinn Fein, but said ‘significant incompatibilities’ still existed. Considering the Irish economy has grown since the 2008 Recession and the Irish Government helped Boris Johnson pave the way for a Brexit deal that has ended fears about a hard border for now, it begs the question as to how Sinn Fein has had its best performance since Ireland left the UK in 1922.

Why Did Sinn Fein Win?

Many voters feel left behind as the Irish economy started to boom again in recent years. The average monthly rent in Ireland is €373 higher than in 2008, a Daft.ie report found last year.

According to Focus Ireland, the number of people losing homes in Ireland has increased by 280 percent since December 2014. More than one in three people in emergency accommodation is a child. However, this number does not include ‘hidden homelessness’, which refers to people who are living in squats or ‘sofa surfing’ with friends. Women and children staying in domestic violence refuges and people sleeping rough are not included in these figures either.

The President of the Irish Hospital Consultants’ Association, Dr Tom Ryan, told the Irish Times that in 2017, there were 589,000 people on hospital waiting lists and that figure had no chance of decreasing.

Sinn Fein Capitalized On Fine Gael’s Failures

Considering Fine Gael has been in power since 2011, Sinn Fein took advantage of the party’s failure to tackle these issues. They promised voters that they would initiate a massive house-building program, institute a rent freeze and provide tax credits to help those with high rents.

Many young people who witnessed how voting can make a difference in elections during the abortion and marriage equality referendums flocked to the nationalists to deliver a bloody nose to the main two main parties.

Denis Staunton of the Irish Times wrote in the Evening Standard that Varadkar’s ability to solve Brexit before the election helped Sinn Fein because it allowed the opposition to concentrate voters’ minds on domestic issues. This meant Britain’s EU exit was not a central focus of this election. Only one percent of people said Brexit was a concern for them before they voted.

This Election Changes Everything For Ireland

Following on from a decade that saw many surprising electoral results, 2020 has already followed that trend in Ireland. Although it could take weeks for a new government to be formed, Sinn Fein are likely to lead some sort of coalition, and that will have wider consequences for the whole of Ireland. It will also impact upon the country’s relations with the UK, the US and EU member states. For the Irish, this election has changed everything.

L'articolo What Brought About Sinn Fein’s Rise To Prominence In Ireland? proviene da InsideOver.