The clean sweep by pro-democracy candidates in the recently concluded district council elections against the backdrop of prolonged street agitation by Hong Kongers may be termed as a victory of democracy in Hong Kong. But China thinks otherwise. Hong Kongers may rejoice on the triumph of pro-democracy candidates, but will this success pave the way for greater democracy for Hong Kongers or force China to stiffen its stand is a question, reply to which is being eagerly awaited by the industrial and political communities across the globe. Pro-democratic candidates’ victory has angered the Chinese government, and it is apparent by the Communist Party newspaper, The People’s Daily’s stand that the triumph is foreign powers’ conspiracy.

Echoing the government’s stand, China Daily in an editorial said that young agitators sabotaged the campaign of pro-establishment candidates and threatened their supporters from exercising their franchise. The newspaper termed the results as a setback for Hong Kong’s democratic development. But the protestors are adamant and unwilling to back off until their demands are met – demands include an independent inquiry into police’s high-handedness, a general amnesty for arrested protesters, revocation of the classification of the protesters as “rioters”, and complete universal suffrage. Protesters are also demanding the resignation of Lam as chief executive.

Beijing and the Hong Kong governments, however, are reluctant to give in to the demands. Geng Shuang, a foreign ministry spokesman at a scheduled press conference, said, “Hong Kong affairs are purely domestic affairs as it is part of China. We are in support of ‘one country, two systems’ principle and are against foreign interference in Hong Kong affairs,” Geng added. Xi has reportedly said that any attempt to divide China would end with “bodies smashed and bones ground to powder.”

The US President Donald Trump’s ratification of the Human Rights and Democracy Act authorizes sanctions on Chinese and Hong Kong officials responsible for human rights abuses. The Act also bans US-made crowd control weapons’ export to Hong Kong police, and all these have given reasons to protesters to rejoice, but China is furious. The Chinese Foreign Ministry statement says, “The US has been denying facts and distorting the truth. It is backing criminals who are engaged in violent activities, smashing facilities, setting the fire, assaulting innocent civilians, breaking the rule of law, and jeopardized social order.”

Uncertainty Looms for Hong Kong

China is in no mood to allow Hong Kong too much autonomy when it questioned local courts’ right to declare laws unconstitutional if they flout the Basic Law or Hong Kong’s mini-constitution. The Chinese action was prompted by the Hong Kong court’s decision to strike down a controversial anti-mask law that was forcefully pushed by Chinese officials. From Beijing’s point of view, a disruptive Hong Kong presents a severe threat of the unrest spreading to the mainland. Military intervention in Hong Kong would prove to be “too costly” for China and would spell doom for free-wheeling Hong Kong.

The protest is unlikely to fizzle out even if Beijing shows restraint towards Hong Kong due to the massive resentment towards the elite government class that dominates the economy and the Hong Kong police force.

In light of China’s crackdown in Xinjiang and Tibet, it seems the international community, including the United States, Britain, and others, have limited scope to support the protest movement in the long run. China may not have an answer to the current imbroglio, but history stands testimonial to the fact that China is a hard nut to crack and will not buckle under pressure.

L'articolo Is Pro-Democratic Candidates’ Victory in Hong Kong A True Victory of Democracy? proviene da InsideOver.

What started as a protest in June 2019 against an extradition bill that would have undermined Hong Kong’s autonomy has now snowballed into a movement for greater freedom and political reforms, thus challenging the legitimacy of the government. Despite repeated warnings by the pro-China authorities, a majority of Hong Kong citizens, including a growing number of school children are vowing to support the uprising through thick and thin. This indicates that China is facing the most sustained challenge since the revolution in Tiananmen Square, thirty years ago.

The mass demonstrations by “Hongkongers” (citizens of Hong Kong describe themselves as “Hongkongers” rather than “Chinese”) are in bold defiance of the Chinese authority, and a crackdown could prove quite costly for China. An open and prosperous Hong Kong is vital for China, as Hong Kong’s wealth has filled the coffers of China. Hong Kong is a massive financial hub, a source of foreign capital, and a currency exchange market with a stock market larger than London. A crackdown would destroy the wealth and Hong Kong’s global position in finance that Beijing needs. Also, Hong Kong’s freedom and autonomy are global issues. Moreover, bloodshed in Hong Kong would shatter China’s hopes of bridging the rift with Taiwan.

These considerations protect the protestors from Beijing’s wrath. The trade war with the United States has further restricted China’s options and tilted the balance in favour of demonstrators. The movement has proved that powerful, authoritarian governments can be forced to repeal draconian measures in the face of popular mobilization.

China’s dilemma

China is in a catch 22 situation with Hong Kong. Businesses, both foreign and domestic including China and Hong Kong-based operations, have begun to explore opportunities outside China. Any increased pressure from China would invite severe criticism from the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. All three have a profound economic and political interest in Hong Kong’s prosperity and its exceptional freedom under China.

A military crackdown could dent China’s international image as a “Responsible Great Power” and spark further radicalization in Hong Kong. Hong Kong can become a symbol of democratic resistance and spark similar movements in Taiwan. China wants a defeated, obedient population in Hong Kong, not a rebel commune.

How Beijing will deal with Hong Kong and Taiwan in Asia is a very pertinent question. Will economic development hasten the movement’s decline and resolve all sorts of problems that Hong Kong faces today? Hundreds of thousands of protesters who are now demanding greater autonomy will continue their protests, causing further economic and political disruption. The announcement of recession might further fuel dissatisfaction and take violent shape and turn Hong Kong from an economic paradise to a nightmare for business establishments.

On the other hand, if brute force is used, the consequences could be catastrophic. The protestors know this too. This is why, despite Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam’s repeal of the extradition law, they will continue to provoke and test the nerves of Beijing. The warning by the Communist Party officials not to “play with fire” or “mistake restraint for weakness” reflects Beijing’s ways of settling dissent.

The pro-democracy agitation poses a severe challenge to China’s rule. Both protestors and China through its proxies in Hong Kong are standing firm on their grounds. If China doesn’t act swiftly to calm down the agitation, the protests might culminate in either a similar revolt like the Middle East faced that unseated the governments in Egypt and Libya or result in a similar massacre that happened in Tiananmen Square. Will China change its strategy and adopt a pro-democratic stance in Hong Kong is a million-dollar question. And the Hong Kong protestors along with the world are eagerly waiting to know China’s answer to this question.

L'articolo China Needs to Change Its Strategy on Hong Kong Before It Is Too Late proviene da InsideOver.

Hong Kong’s government showed its first signs of cracking on Tuesday when Chief Executive Carrie Lam withdrew the controversial extradition bill. Yet even though she removed the legislation which sparked several months of protests, the action is unlikely to quell the opposition which had previously adopted a list of five demands. 

Blinking

Now in its fourteenth week, protests have grown increasingly violent. Aside from a widely-reported incident at the Hong Kong airport where a group of protestors attacked a man whom they accused of being an undercover policeman, activists have been mostly peaceful. Hong Kong law enforcement, however, has gradually increased the severity of methods designed to suppress the protests. 

Even so, neither side has blinked until Tuesday when Lam made the announced the recension of the bill in television broadcast. 

“The government will formally withdraw the bill to fully allay public concerns,” Lam declared. “Lingering violence is damaging the very foundations of our society, especially the rule of law.”

Furthermore, Lam said she would add two more representatives to a council tasked with investigating complaints against law enforcement personnel. The oversight group is not new: it was created 20 years ago, which raises questions about why calls for investigations of police brutality have gone unanswered until Tuesday. Hong Kong police have on several occasions been recorded on video preventing emergency medical responders from reaching injured protestors, attempted to gouge an activist’s eyes, and raided a subway car, bludgeoning its occupants without mercy.

While her willingness to have the council look into these acts in addition to the tear-gassing, paint-marking, and arresting of peaceful demonstrators may seem like another concession to the five demands, it is not being viewed as such. Critically, the governing council has long been accused of bias because it is not an independent body and as seen during Lam’s televised statement, her administration has the power to choose its members. She continues to deny the right to a third-party investigation.

Lam also vowed to reach out to “people from all walks of life” while engaging the citizens of Hong Kong in civil discourse, but it is unknown how much she could gain from such talks given the firm stance of the protestors. While many international observers predicted a Beijing-led military suppression on the horizon, few believed Lam would be the first to relent. 

Unstoppable Force? 

The ancient unstoppable force paradox originated in the ancient philosophical book Han Feizi written by Chinese author Han Fei. Fei was the first to pose the question, “What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?” He termed the paradox ‘矛盾,’ pronounced as ‘máodùn’ which translates to “contradiction” or ‘spear-shield.’

It is fitting that such an enigma came from China as it perfectly encapsulates the present ordeal. For the entire summer, the protestors have essentially been spears, unstoppable forces against the government shield or immovable object. Even though Lam conceded the primary demand to remove the extradition bill in its entirety, it will not stop the immovable force nor will her government agree to the full list of requirements.

In addition to the removal of the bill, protestors call for a government order to prohibit the labelling of protests as ‘riots,’ an independent inquiry into police actions, the complete release and amnesty for arrested protestors, and democratic elections. Hong Kong citizens are unlikely to ever gain more electoral rights, especially with the city destined to return to Beijing-rule in a few decades. 

“The damage has been done. The scars and wounds are still bleeding,” said Claudia Mo a pro-democracy legislator. “She thinks she can use a garden hose to put out a hill fire. That’s not going to be acceptable.”

Another Hong Kong legislator, Eddie Chu, also supported the continuation of protests declaring, “We will change our slogan to ‘Four key demands, we will accept nothing less.’” 

Fake Sincerity?

There are concerns among some activists that if they accept Lam’s offer, her government will fiercely roll-back civil liberties as soon as protestors return to their homes. 

“Whenever there are signs of sending a palm branch, they always come with a far tighter grip on exercising civil rights,” said Joshua Wong, a student protestor. “They have conceded nothing in fact, and a full-scale clampdown is on the way.”

Lam surprised many when she agreed to the principle demand of removing the extradition bill in its entirety, pledging to never to revive it. Unfortunately for the Hong Kong and Beijing governments, the time for this concession passed long ago. Protestors now feel part of something larger than themselves, and possibly larger than the government itself. They have not grown weary, only more steadfast in their resolve. 

L'articolo Carrie Lam removes extradition bill, but why won’t protestors stop? proviene da InsideOver.