The ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over a major hydropower dam project being built by Addis Ababa on the Nile River has inspired an increased spirit of patriotism among Egyptians.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Egypt — which gets 90% of its water supplies from the River Nile — fears that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will sharply reduce its water share. Ethiopia, an upstream country, says the dam project is vital for the country’s development. Years of negotiations between the two countries have failed to resolve the dispute.

The standoff revolves around the filling and operation of the dam, which sits on the Blue Nile. The Blue Nile flows into the River Nile during periods of drought. While Ethiopia wants to fill the dam’s reservoir of 74 billion cubic meters during a period of four to seven years, Egypt demands the reservoir be filled over a longer and slower period of 10 years.

Ethiopia Starts Filling Dam Without Egyptian Approval

On July 15, Ethiopia announced that it has started filling the GERD without reaching an agreement with downstream countries Egypt and Sudan. The announcement sparked anger in Egypt, with many Egyptians taking to social media to express their support for any action to be taken by their government against Ethiopia over the dam.

Social media accounts in Egypt have been filled with patriotism and cheering for their army, with many users posting photos of soldiers and military vehicles on their pages.

“Ethiopia has no right to build a dam on the Nile without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan. They [Ethiopia] don’t own the Nile River,” Ahmed Raef, 45, a driver, told InsideOver. “If they continued to refuse to reach an agreement with us on building the dam, the Egyptian army can intervene and solve the situation by force.”

Ethiopia Doesn’t Stand a Chance Against Egypt

A source of pride for many in Egypt, the Egyptian military is by far more powerful than Ethiopia’s. Egypt’s army ranks ninth out of 138 armies around the world, while the Ethiopian army ranks 60th, according to the Global Fire Power.

Angry with what they view as Ethiopian intransigence over the dam, Egyptians launched several hashtags on social media to show support for their military and defend the country’s right to the Nile water. A petition also went viral on social media, requesting the army to take all measures needed to protect and defend Egypt’s national security, resources and fortunes of the Egyptian people.

‘The Egyptian Army is Strong Enough to Force Ethiopia to Change its Mind’

“The Egyptian army is strong enough to force Ethiopia to change its mind on filling the dam without reaching an agreement with Egypt,” said Hani Ahmed, a 21-year-old university student. “So far, the Egyptian government favors diplomacy in the hope of resolving the dispute with Ethiopia peacefully.”

Last month, Egypt asked the UN Security Council to intervene to help resolve the dam dispute with Addis Ababa. Addressing the Security Council, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said the massive dam — Africa’s largest — endangers Egypt’s survival. He warned that filling the GERD without an agreement with downstream countries would heighten tension and provoke crises and conflicts in the region.

Ongoing Tension Over the Nile

The Nile River has been a source of geographical tension between the Egypt and Ethiopia. In 1979, the two countries nearly went to war when Cairo responded to Ethiopian efforts to build a dam by amassing troops in nearby Sudan. And in 1994, Egypt threatened military action against Ethiopia when Addis Ababa revealed plans for the construction of a dam on the Nile.

The latest round of African Union-sponsored talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to reach an agreement ended in a deadlock. The Egyptian Presidency, however, said on July 21 that the leaders of the three countries agreed to continue their talks for reaching a “binding legal agreement on the rules for filling and operating” the dam.

Egyptian Accusation: Ethiopia is Using the Dam as a ‘Political Tool’ to Blackmail Egypt

Former Irrigation Minister Mohamed Nasr Allam accused Ethiopia of wasting time in an attempt to avoid reaching a binding agreement with Egypt over the dam. In statements, Allam said Ethiopia was using the dam project as a “political tool in order to impose control over Egypt, extract concessions and undermine its standing in the region”.

On July 19, Egypt’s National Security Council held a meeting to discuss the results of talks with Ethiopia over the GERD. A statement issued following the meeting reiterated Egypt’s resolve to reaching a comprehensive agreement on the rules of filling and operating the dam “in a way that guarantees the water rights and development for the three countries and maintains regional security and stability.”

Inability to Come to an Agreement

Earlier this year, the three countries held talks in Washington under the US auspices to resolve the dam dispute. Ethiopia, however, refused to sign a final agreement. On July 22 Foreign Policy magazine, citing officials and congressional aides, said the Donald Trump administration was weighing withholding some aid to Ethiopia over the dam project.

For Ahmed, the university student, the issue is still in Egypt’s hands, thanks to the strength of the Egyptian military.

“The River Nile has always been a lifeline for the Egyptians and we can’t allow Ethiopia to enforce its will on us,” he said. “If the situation reached a dead end, I’m confident that Egyptian army will be there to solve the dispute for good.”

L'articolo Nile Dam Dispute with Ethiopia is Boosting Egyptian Patriotism proviene da InsideOver.

Control over strategic cross-border rivers and waterways is set to become increasingly crucial for the survival and national security of various nations in the Middle East and Africa. Many observers and pundits are now analyzing the significant chance that conflicts over control of these water bodies could spark war. The ongoing row between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) on the river Nile is one such case. Turkey’s increasing drainage of water flowing through its territories into both Syria and Iraq is another example. This action could bring drought and power shortages to already suffering economies of the two neighboring countries and is in violation of international conventions governing the passage of water through shared rivers. Both situations could plausibly ignite armed conflict over vital water supplies.

Turkey: Shutting Off the Taps of the Euphrates and Making Syria and Iraq Suffer

Whenever it has deemed necessary, Turkey has demonstrated no hesitation since the outbreak of conflict in Syria in 2011 in playing any cards, including enforced water scarcity, to achieve political goals. They have done this regardless of consequences suffered by the Syrian population Ankara claims to support and defend. In recent weeks, Turkey has dramatically cut down the amount of water through its wall of dams on the Euphrates to both Syria and eventually Iraq where the river ends in Shatt al Arab on the Persian Gulf.

In a flagrant violation of international law as well as agreements signed between the two nations according to relevant conventions concerning shared rivers, Ankara has freed an average of a mere 150 cubic meters per second, instead of the 800 (cmps) it had originally pledged to supply Syria with. The impact has been severe on the river basin, farming, irrigation and electricity generation in both Syria and Iraq. The very people Erdogan claims to be defending have fallen victims of Ankara’s inhumane water tricking measures.

The scenario of 2013 in Syria’s economic capital and largest northern city of Aleppo seems to be repeating itself today. Then, the Aleppo city and province, close to the Turkish borders, suffered long months of thirst and hardship as a result of Turkish water policies. This is in addition to Turkey’s unabated support of terrorist and radical groups occupying large chunks of the city as well as most of its countryside.

Erdogan’s Provocative and Punitive Water Policies Raise Tension, Threaten War

“What Turkish politicians say is one thing, and what they practice against the Syrian population is something completely different”, said Dr. Kamal al Jafa, Syrian political and strategic analyst in a special report from Syria to Egypt 360. “Turkey is trying to use the water as a card to blackmail its neighbors, especially the Kurds in Syria, so it often resorts to repeatedly cut down water supplies through both the Tigris and Euphrates over which Ankara has built several dams”, al Jafa added.

Water levels in both river basins have recently hit record lows, and once thriving riverside farming areas and fishing grounds are quickly being drained out due Ankara’s virtual closure of the water tap, largely controlled by Ataturk Baraji on the Euphrates, the largest dam of its kind in Turkey situated in the Adyaman, Şanlıurfa Province, which became fully operational in December 1993. The HEPP of the Atatürk Dam is the biggest of a series of 19 power plants of the so-called GAP (Southeast Anatolia Project). The dam has led to a big reduction of Syria’s share of the river, less than a quarter of the internationally agreed upon levels. A similar scenario with Iraq followed Turkey’s building of the Ilisu Dam on the Tigris river which cut off almost 50% of Iraq’s legitimate share of the river.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s ruling predecessors had embarked on similar water policies in 1990s, which then led to Iraq’s late President Saddam Hussein threatening Ankara with military action unless it revoked its punitive water policies. His negotiating team with the Turks then consisted of group of high-ranking military officers, symbolic of the gravity of the water issue. A similar response this time around is not highly likely due to Iraq’s and Syria’s state at the moment; yet an escalation of sorts cannot be completely ruled out, given the dire consequences of Ankara’s actions which are in breach of the two international agreements signed in 1966 and 1997. These are bilateral agreements between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, and Turkey’s actions contradict basic humanitarian norms and considerations.

Turkey is one of the world’s richest countries in water resources, with over 635 dams within its borders. Yet, Erdogan is backing down on a binding deal reached between late Turkish leader Turgut Ozal (1927-1993) with both Syria and Iraq, which pledges an annual supply of 5.75 billion cubic meters of water to both nations equally.

Could Water Wars Engulf the Middle East?

The intertwining linkage between water issues and their strategic impact on economies and survival of whole nations is perfectly demonstrated by the raging row between Egypt and Ethiopia over GERD. The conflict came up following the latter’s intransigence regarding the building of the dam despite US and some Arab Gulf nations financing packages. Instead Ethiopia moved to fill up the massive GERD lake on the Nile, creating a water scarcity situation which threatens Egypt’s life line and very existence. The threat of military action as a last resort should diplomacy fail highlights the degree of tension and danger generated by the turbines of water warmongers on both the Asian and African continents.

For, while Turkey and Ethiopia seem adamant to use the water card for political ends against their rivals or potential enemies, no nation can afford the luxury of standing idle by, watching their economy, national security, future and even very existence crumble before their own eyes. Unless water manipulating leaders in Turkey and Ethiopia come to their senses, major regional conflicts could soon erupt, thus turning one of God’s biggest blessings, the essence of life on earth, water, into a catalyst for more wars and conflicts.

More than ever before, water is proving to be a more important an asset than even gas and oil. Those who possess or control the  keys to water supplies possess the key to the future of whole nations and possibly that of mankind as a whole.

L'articolo Disputes Over Water Could Spark New Wars in Middle East and Africa proviene da InsideOver.