US Defense Secretary Mark Esper visited four North African states last week, reviving American efforts to reshape its focus on the continent. In February, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a tour of several African nations in a bid to increase ties with Washington. The Trump administration was said to be reevaluating the US commitment to operations in the Sahel, but was clear that it wanted to do something different on the continent.

First African Trip for Esper

Esper has held his position as head of the Defense Department since July 2019, but his trip to Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Malta was his first visit to the continent. It’s not unusual, however, for his department to not pay the continent the same attention to Africa that’s afforded areas such as the Middle East and Asia; the last time a defense secretary from Washington visited any African state was in 2006, as CNN reported.

However, with operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria driving terrorists out of the Middle East, many extremist fighters have found refuge in the Sahel. Recently, France has been the primary Western state spearheading counterterrorism operations out of Mali, but that battle has been uphill, a problem exacerbated by Malian tribal politics.

Whereas Pompeo’s trip was more economically and politically-oriented, Esper’s naturally sported more military overtones. The main purpose for the Trump administration dispatching Esper was two-fold: to strengthen military partnerships to enhance the counterterrorism security apparatus on the continent and convince states to choose the US over China and Russia for their needs.

Esper’s greatest challenge for his trip lied in Algeria where Washington is hoping to capitalize on shifting political waters that might be more favorable to the US. For the past 60 years, the state has predominantly relied on the Soviet Union and Russia for military supplies. Although the US is always seeking stronger military alliances, often these entail weapons purchase agreements, and could be viewed as the driving factor.

In return, Washington also gains a foothold wherever it sells arms and technology. Not only can it gain a friend across the globe and more options from which to stage operations, it also gains insight into other nations’ internal defense workings.

China and Russia Are On Washington’s Mind

In Algeria’s case, the US relationship has essentially been nonexistent, giving the Trump administration a far-out goal to strive for.

“We don’t engage them quite as much because their ties have been towards others,” a Pentagon source explained to CNN. “There’s a chance to maybe push the door open a little bit in expanding our bilateral relationship with them.”

Behind Russia, China is the next largest supplier of weapons for Algeria.

“Today, our strategic competitors China and Russia continue to intimidate and coerce their neighbors while expanding their authoritarian influence worldwide, including on this continent,” Esper said at an event at the North American Cemetery in Carthage, Tunisia. “At the same time, violent extremists continue to pose a threat not only to regional stability, but also to our homeland. The United States’ enduring partnership with like-minded countries — including here in North Africa — is key to addressing these challenges.” 

Washington’s goal is to partner with other states to offer an alliance that isn’t hostile and malicious like Russia and China, he said. Only with the the US can African states retain their sovereignty and avoid answering to Beijing or Moscow.

Algeria is at a Turning Point

Esper’s sales pitch to Algeria comes at the right time. Following pro-democracy protests that forced out President Abdelaziz Bouteflika last year, there is hope a new constitution will pass via referendum next month. One change would include the ability for the nation’s armed forces to be deployed internationally and take part in training exercises, held by the UN, African Union, or the US.

If the new Algerian government is willing once a new constitution is approved, the US is keen to make it a regional partner. The state could prove vital should Washington decide to take a more active role in combating terrorism in the Sahel. 

“Algeria has always been considered by the Americans as a ‘pivotal state’ whose vulnerability can engulf the whole region if it is affected by jihadists,” said Algerian political scientist Mansour Kedidir. Buffing Algeria with a US military partnership could also ward off a threat in the east posed by extremists in Libya.

Region Ripe for Dealmaking

To put it simply, with French and UN Peacekeeping forces unable to gain ground in the Sahel, Algeria could play a critical role should terrorism spread further across North Africa. Washington saw an opportunity open with the new political climate and Esper has made a play to that end.

The US defense secretary also signed 10-year military agreements with Tunisia and Morocco. Both states have boasted strong ties with America, particularly since the Arab Spring saw Tunisia emerge as a successful democracy. Washington considers both to be major Non-NATO allies in the region and they are key cogs in American counterterrorism operations across North Africa.

Malta Resists Agreeing to SOFA

Esper also stopped in Malta, meeting with the state’s prime minister and president. Washington’s goals with Malta are less ambitious as the island state is a comparatively smaller power in the Mediterranean. However, it does have a vital port that could be harnessed to boost maritime security.

The US has been trying to convince the Maltese government to agree to a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which would govern foreign troops deployed within Malta’s borders. Washington wants it so American soldiers can have greater authority on Hurd’s Bank, a common smuggling route. 

Instead, the Maltese government proposed a weaker agreement which the US rejected, so the likelihood of a SOFA coming to fruition with Malta continues to elude US politicians. 

Esper’s tour of North Africa is an overt sign that Washington is gearing up to make a push to defend its influence across the region. With China and Russia gobbling up weapon sales that could be going to American producers and regional instability driving demand, it’s America’s turn to project power. Visits to Tunisia and Morocco were mostly formalities, but Algeria has great potential for future US partnerships if it can be convinced to forsake Moscow and Beijing.

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France’s efforts combating extremist factions in the Sahel paid off Friday when Paris announced it had killed Abdelmalek Droukdel, al Qaeda’s leader in North Africa. The accomplishment was the result of seven years of searching for the terrorist figurehead, as Reuters reported.

Elusive Leader Found

Droukdel was responsible for leading a militant Islamist takeover of northern Mali in 2012, which prompted French forces to respond. Although his forces were repelled, they were also scattered throughout the Sahel rather than entirely defeated. Many of them also left al Qaeda to join the Islamic State which was surging in power at that time.

Droukdel himself began to focus more on Libya and Tunisia and was speculated to have been hiding in an Algerian mountain range. Last year, 13 French soldiers were killed in a helicopter crash during a counterterrorism operation. Since then, pressure has been mounting on Paris to do something, anything, to give a hint of a victory in the Sahel, where it has casually waged war for six years, all while committing barely more than 5,000 troops.

Sahel Operations Get a Boost

The killing of Droukdel represents France’s justification for continuing its efforts in the Sahel. It is also the result of a rethinking of Paris’ regional strategy. France, alongside regional governments, unified their forces under a single command source in January to better direct counterterrorism operations. 

“On June 3, French army forces, with the support of their local partners, killed the emir of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Abdelmalek Droukdel, and several of his closest collaborators, during an operation in northern Mali,” French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly tweeted.

The news is more than the announcement of a strategic victory, but also one of morale. Operations in and around Mali have failed to deliver the kind of results that regional governments wanted. In fact, as Islamic State fighters were driven from Syria, many of them found refuge in Africa. A simple situational analysis would lead some observers to rightfully conclude France and its regional partners have been losing the war in the Sahel. 

Allied forces in Africa have longed for something they can point to as a victory and taking out Droukdel was a considerable one.

Coordinated Effort Pays Off

The operation was the result of several forces coordinating together. The US military provided intelligence that helped guide the mission according to a report from the Washington Post.

“This was a great example of cooperation and partnership to get after a common threat,” said Col. Christopher Karns, spokesman for US Africa Command.

Droukdel was killed at a meeting with other al Qaeda leaders in a river valley of northern Mali, Channel News Asia reported. The location is only 20 kilometres from the Algerian border, giving credence to France’s suspicions that Droukdel was holed up Algeria. 

French troops swarmed the meeting with helicopters and ground troops, destroying a vehicle before fighting turned on the terrorists. Droukdel fell alongside several of his subordinates and one extremist was captured alive, French Col. Frederic Barbry said.

What Will be the Actual Impact of Droukdel’s Death?

Droukdel’s killing, while a victory for morale, will be unlikely to disrupt the broader schemes of terrorism in the region. 

“It’s all very well to neutralize certain leaders,” said Denis Tull, West Africa expert with Paris’ Institute for Strategic Research, “but we’ve seen in other fields that beheading leaders is never enough.”

Conflict in the region extends beyond one group, such as al Qaeda. Several terrorist factions in the region, including the Group to Support Islam and Muslims and the Islamic State, will continue to sow violence, particularly in Mali and Burkina Faso. Many of these groups are linked to larger international organisations, but they are more than capable of surviving on their own.

Added Elements that Exacerbate Mali’s Plight

In Mali, there is an added element of public discontent against the government. Even on Friday as Droukdel was eliminated, 20.000 protestors gathered in the capital to protest against President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta.

Complicating matters further, the US Department of Defense is weighing the option of reducing its Africa footprint. This would include a reduction, if not complete withdrawal, from the Sahel.

France’s killing of Droukdel should not be misconstrued as a sign of victory, but as a call for more aid, more troops, and more support from the international community that has largely turned a blind eye toward the struggle in the Sahel. Eliminating Droukdel was proof that allied states can accomplish goals in the region. However, there is a strong need for a massive troop buildup.

Terrorists continue to prove that the Sahel is theirs to lose. Droukdel’s killing doesn’t change that; he was a large pawn in an even larger game. Without the proper level of troops, French forces will continue to be handicapped as the number of extremists grows. Now is the time for Paris to rededicate itself to its mission in Mali and prove that it has the will to see the mission through to victory. Now is not a time for celebration: not yet.

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The US military is adjusting its strategy for operations in Africa, but recent decisions could have negative consequences. Notably, Africa Command (AFRICOM) has opted to greatly reduce medical evacuation (medevac) flights in the Sahel. American troops had until recently played a more passive role in counterterrorism operations, primarily advising and training local troops in Niger.

Removing Critical Support

American troops have been relegated to non-combat roles after a 2017 ambush claimed the lives of four soldiers. However, military advisers did join local forces in an operation against Boko Haram in March. Now, future engagements are likely to remain limited in scope as the Pentagon canceled a $23 million contract with Erickson, which provided medevac flights for Army Green Berets, as the New York Times reported.

Erickson used a base in Arlit, Niger, but AFRICOM decided to move the 20th special Forces Group to the border region Niger shares with Mali and Burkina Faso. There, American troops will join a counterterrorism fight that France has predominantly spearheaded. AFRICOM said the region is already served by sufficient medevac support and deemed Erickson’s services unnecessary.

What is the Reality of Current US Medevac Support in the Region?

However, it’s unclear whether such medevac support actually exists. Some lawmakers are pushing back on the Pentagon’s decision and believe future medevac flights will be operated by a single helicopter through Berry Aviation. The H225 Super Puma aircraft ferries injured soldiers to Niamey.

Rep. Michael Waltz, R–Fla., is a former Green Beret and served in West Africa, granting him a familiarity with the issue that is unique among legislators. 

“A lack of support can have serious results when troops are faced with a hostile and determined foe,” Waltz wrote on March 12 to Pentagon officials.

Already, medevac support in West Africa has been subpar according to Defense Department standards, the New York Times reported. In war zones, the US military adheres to “a golden hour standard,” that calls for injured troops to be transported out of harm’s way in one hour or less.

During the 2017 ambush, American troops waited four hours for medevac support.

‘We’ve Begun a Review Process’

A reduction in medevac support (Erickson’s contract expires in June) could be evidence of the US military’s plan to downscale involvement in West Africa. While the chief spokesman for AFRICOM, Col. Christopher Karns, said the troops “were being repositioned,” the Defense Department has been eager to adjust its overarching strategy in Africa.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is considering a barrage of measures designed to reduce Washington’s role in counterterrorism operations on the continent. Closing a drone base, withdrawing troops, and cancelling aid to French allies are all options on the table. America currently has 1.200 troops in West Africa.

Esper began a review of US operations in December and was expected to decide on a new strategy by the end of March, however, the outbreak of COVID-19 delayed it.

“We’ve begun a review process where I’m looking at every theater, understanding what the requirements are that we set out for, making sure we’re as efficient as possible with our forces,” Esper said in December.

Potential Impact on France’s Sahel CT Operations

Reducing medevac support, although it could imperil American lives, is the least that could happen. For France, the implications of a larger shift in Washington’s strategy could undermine the entire fight against terrorists.

“If the US decided to withdraw from Africa, it would be bad news for us,” said French President Emmanuel Macron. “I would like to be able to convince President Trump that the fight against terrorism to which he is deeply committed is playing out also in this region.”

Who is Winning the Sahel War?

Western forces in Africa, mainly French and American, are all that stands between a free-for-all for Islamic extremists and a glimmer of hope for free society. Paris has been bogged down by the conflict for seven years and even with US assistance, the reality is that few could claim it is winning the fight.

If anything, the struggle has worsened as terrorists flocked to the Sahel from Syria and Iraq. A lack of intense troop buildup from allied forces, however, meant groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram have often went unopposed. There was no invasion of West Africa like in Iraq and Afghanistan; Africa was and remains an afterthought.

Without US support, or with significantly reduced aid, France will be left on its own in a war it cannot win without a either a large push or more international help. So far, the International community has been content to stand by, hesitant to become involved in another never-ending conflict.

Today, it is Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger that are the predominant hotspots. However, without American help to contain them, terrorists could quickly spill over into bordering states and export extremism across the continent. At this point AFRICOM has only announced cuts to medevac support and a troop relocation, but Esper’s review is unlikely to lead to more American resources being pledged to the fight.

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