Al-Jazeera reports on a study conducted by the US Army War College, which suggests that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS) remains a “persistent threat” in Libya and could rise again unless the nation’s ongoing conflict is brought to an end.

It added that the terrorist group retained its capacity to launch “small-scale” attacks in Libya, which is a shift from its previously predominant tactic of “shock and awe raids.”

ISIL is Still Active in Libya

Considering the UN and Turkish-backed Government of National Accord’s (GNA) armed forces succeeded in defeating ISIL in May 2016 in the strategic city of Sirte, this is an alarming development. The study suggests that most of the terrorist group’s activities have moved to Fezzan in the southern Libyan desert.

If ISIL was going to succeed in expanding its number of recruits, then Libya is an easy target for the terrorist group for many reasons.

Firstly, the country has been torn apart by a civil war conducted by two opposing armies. One of the main rival forces in Libya is the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, which has the support of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The GNA, the LNA’s main adversary, has the backing of the US, the UN and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. If the international community should learn any lessons from the last decade, then it is that IS’s recruitment strategy thrives during civil wars.

As The Atlantic’s David Ignatius argues, ISIS’s rise in Syria was made possible by several factors. The terrorist group began as a bottom-up movement, with mosques gathering their own young recruits to defend their local areas.

Syria Showed How Civil Wars are a Breeding Ground for Terror

Because of a lack of US intervention, the Free Syrian Army, whose stated goal was to overthrow Assad’s government once the Syrian civil war started in 2011, received inadequate training. Although the US tried to bolster covert Syrian missions with an overt “train and equip” program backed by $500 million in congressional support, the initiative proved to be a disaster. President Obama terminated it in October 2014. This meant that Jabhat al-Nusra and his ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates were able to fill the vacuum left by the moderate opposition in Syria.

Poverty is another factor that can cause terrorist groups like ISIS to prosper, and according to the Index Mundi, about one-third of Libyans live at or below the national poverty line. The country suffers from widespread power outages, caused by shortages of fuel for power generations. Living conditions, including access to drinking water, medical services and safe housing have declined since 2011. A study conducted by International Alert in 2016 discovered that poverty, desperation and the desire for revenge pushed many Syrians to join ISIS, particularly among adolescent boys and young men between the ages of 12 and 24. There is no reason why many Libyans today would not feel the same way as many Syrians did back then.

The Libyan War Must End as Soon as Possible

Therefore, it is vital that the Libyan people are involved in a peace settlement between Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. As Thomas M. Hill of the US Institute of Peace argues, Libyan citizens have played an active role in making peace a reality through initiatives like successfully convincing some youth in the city of Misrata to quit the local militia.

Fehim Tastekin of Al-Monitor argues that Turkey could acquiesce to Russian control over the city of al-Jufra in exchange for Turkish control over Sirte. However, carving up Libya between Russia and Turkey could only boost ISIS’s support further. That is why it is vital that US President Donald Trump intervenes in this conflict to prevent Putin and Erdoğan from exerting their influence over the war-torn state.

Because of recent history, there are many reasons to believe that the findings of the US Army War College could come true. It is vital that all the superpowers that have a stake in the Libyan conflict come to an agreement soon, and that the Libyan people are consulted on any progress toward peace. The worst outcome for Libya right now is if many of its citizens fall under ISIS’s influence again.

L'articolo ISIS Could Re-emerge in Libya if Conflict Continues proviene da InsideOver.

Egypt has received a new advanced submarine from Germany, raising speculation about its naval expansion and modernization plans. The new Type 209/1400 underwater craft, delivered on April 9, is Egypt’s third of four manufactured by Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems.

Egypt’s 2014 Naval Contract with Germany’s ThyssenKrupp

The German provider of naval vessels, surface ships and submarines as well as a number of other products including elevators, is constructing the submarines in the light of a 2014 contract with Egypt. The Egyptian navy received the first submarine of this type in December 2016 and the second in August 2017.

ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems says it will deliver the fourth submarine to Egypt in 2021.

Egypt Eyeing Major Naval Upgrade

Egypt’s acquisition of the new submarines is an important milestone on the road of the modernization of its navy. The administration of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is investing billions of dollars on the modernization of the Egyptian military, in general, and the navy, in particular, despite Egypt’s tough economic realities.

According to Egyptian army spokesman, Col. Tamer al-Rifae, the team that would operate the submarine had already received training in Germany.

“The members of the team completed the training in a record time,” al-Rifae wrote in a statement on April 9.

Important Addition to Egypt’s Navy

The new submarine is a diesel-electric attack underwater craft. It was developed by the German shipbuilding company, Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft, which is part of the ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems group.

It is the most recent version of the Class 209 family (209/1100, 209/1200, 209/1300, 209/1400 and 209/1500) in a line of 63 boats contracted with 14 international navies. It is a compact craft that features the most recent technology, high combat strength, extraordinary battery payload and low signatures.

Its comprehensive mission profiles include surveillance and intelligence gathering tasks and it is particularly well-suited for Special Forces operations. The submarine has an overall length of 61.2 meters and a surfaced displacement of 1,280 tons. It is armed with 8 bow 533 mm torpedo tubes and 14 torpedoes. This submarine can be armed with a variety of torpedo models.

Facing Down the Terrorist Threat

The delivery of the new underwater craft comes at a time of major change in the region. Egypt has a coastline extending over 2,000 kilometers on the Mediterranean Sea and on the Red Sea. Nevertheless, threats to the security of this coastline are assuming a new nature at a time of new alliances and enmities.

The emergence of terrorism as a threat to nation states is being taken very seriously in Egypt, with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) having an active branch in Egypt’s Sinai.

Egypt’s navy plays a central part in counterterrorism operations, especially with the local ISIS branch receiving a sizeable amount of its supplies through the sea.

Eastern Mediterranean Security

Developments in the region in the past few years make it necessary for Egypt to increase dependence on its navy to protect its own interests.

Egypt is becoming party to the emerging natural gas wealth in the Eastern Mediterranean. In 2015, the Italian state-owned company Eni discovered a gigantic gas field off Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. The field now gives Egypt almost half of its production, but Cairo made other significant discoveries later that are increasing the national natural gas production.

Egypt needs, however, to protect this wealth against recurrent threats, especially from Turkey which is militarily interfering in neighboring Libya and tries to institute itself as a main player in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Turkey, an ideological and regional adversary of Egypt, says regional states have to get permission from it if they want to extend pipelines or explore for gas, citing a maritime boundary delimitation deal it signed with Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Accord.

Growing Iranian Presence

Egypt’s navy is also instrumental in the protection of the international maritime movement in the Red Sea and through the Suez. Nonetheless, growing Iranian interference in Yemen, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the southern entrance of the Red Sea has turned into a formidable threat to this freedom of movement.

The Iran-backed Houthi militia, which has overrun most of Yemen, threatens navigation in the southern entrance of the Red Sea and through the strait, having attacked oil tankers several times in the past years.

Egypt has deployed some of its naval units near the strait and opened a military base on its southern Red Sea coast with the aim of keeping threats at bay and protecting the Suez Canal. The presence of a modern powerful navy, security analysts say, is a matter of utmost importance for carrying out this mission.

L'articolo Egypt Boosts Navy With New German Submarine proviene da InsideOver.

Caught in a costly counter-terror quagmire, France’s Emmanuel Macron is calling for help in West Africa. For six years, his soldiers have toiled to tame rampant Islamic extremism in the Sahel. It has been a bloody struggle. Last month, thirteen Frenchmen perished in an aircraft collision. The incident, Paris’s gravest military disaster in decades, has spurred Macron to once again seek international assistance. But with the body count building, support – both within Africa and outside – is proving hard to come by.

When President François Hollande deployed troops to the Sahel in 2013, his objectives were clear. France’s former West African colonies, overrun with Islamic extremists, needed help, and with swift action, the militants could be denied a dangerous regional foothold. His nation’s superior air-power soon turned the tide against the terrorists, who fled their urban strongholds in northern Mali.

But the fighters – some aligned with Islamic State and al-Qaeda – quickly regrouped in the sprawling Sahelian outback. From their rural hideouts, they have waged an ever bloodier insurgent campaign. Innocent civilians have, by and large, suffered the worst of the carnage. In the first half of 2019 alone, almost 170,000 were forced to flee their homes. Where French flags were once waved in welcome, they are now burned by locals incensed at the spiralling violence.

The shift in sentiment has rattled Macron. At a recent NATO meeting in London, the Frenchman demanded that West African counterparts curb the growing dissent or face a dialling down of France’s military commitment. “Do they want our presence and do they need it?” he asked pointedly, reminding regional leaders that French troops were fighting for their “collective security”. 

But on the ground, there is an inescapable truth: local forces are bearing the brunt of the bloodshed. Since Operation Barkhane – the mission’s official designation – commenced, France has lost 41 personnel. That number is significant, but it pales in comparison to Malian casualties. In a single attack last month, 53 local soldiers were slain. Since September, at least a hundred have died. 

The recent air accident – which claimed 13 French lives – has reiterated, however, the vulnerability of Macron’s troops. Not since a Beirut-based barracks was bombed in 1983 has the nation suffered so terrible a military tragedy. Now more than ever, the isolation of France’s 4,500 strong deployment – the largest of any Western nation in the region – is evident. 

And the murky mission is growing ever more complex. What started as clear cut counter-terror operation has degenerated into an intricate war on savvy insurgents. The area’s rampant criminality, nonexistent rule of law, civil unrest, and the onset of battle-hardened militants from IS’s Middle East collapse has muddied an already confused campaign. It is an almighty endeavour for France to undertake alone – a fact not lost on Macron’s NATO allies. 

They’ve alluded to assistance and offered heartfelt condolences for the dead, but none seem keen on meaningful intervention. The EU would, perhaps, dispute this, having pledged over €250 million to help train local forces. The UK, Spain, Estonia, and Denmark have also committed logistical support – but none have spilt blood-fighting the terrorists who, in theory, threaten them all. 

Parisian lawmakers have not minced their words on the apparent injustice. Should security diminish further in the Sahel, Europe “will have two swords of Damocles over its head: terrorism and kidnappings, but also illegal immigrants since many are travelling through these regions,” French armed forces minister Florence Parly warned recently.

Financial support would be welcome – Operation Barkhane costs the French taxpayer some €690 million a year – but it is hard power assistance that her government seeks above all else. Macron is especially keen on EU allies committing special forces to the fight, units trained in the craft of counter-insurgency. It is, in the mind of the French president, Europe’s time to shape global security, filling the space of a retreating United States.

But West Africa’s instability is rooted in issues immune to military intervention. A functioning judicial system, effective and accessible healthcare and education, economic development. These are the keys to lasting peace, experts believe. 

“[A main] priority should be addressing the socio-economic and political causes of the insecurity,” says Flore Berger, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The most effective way of doing this would be to allow short-term security objectives to give way to long term development, social and political efforts with the ultimate goal of fostering trust between the people and their authorities.”

Achieving this level of root-and-branch reform will take not just time, but concerted international action. France wants to coax the world into its West African conflict – but perhaps a focus on peace, not war, would serve the cause better. 

L'articolo France Calls For Counter-Terror Help In West Africa proviene da InsideOver.