The Russian parliament’s lower house – the Duma – is supporting legislation to grant Russian presidents and their families immunity from criminal prosecution after they leave office.

It is one of the many constitutional amendments that were approved by Russian voters during a referendum in July, and it was not difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin to push this bill through both houses of Russia’s parliament, as both are dominated by his party United Russia.

The timing of this law is no coincidence, as there have been rumors reported in the media recently that Russia’s 68-year-old President could retire as early as next year due to ill health.

Putin has been President of the Russian Federation since 2000, and his latest move hints that he is paving the way for someone to succeed him, though he is still allowed to run for two more terms after 2024.

Putin Will Not Face Prosecution for His Crimes

Under the immunity provisions, a former president and his family would have immunity from any police searches or questioning, or any confiscation of their property.

Furthermore, they would not be prosecuted for any crimes committed in their lifetime, except for alleged acts of treason or other grave crimes in exceptional circumstances.

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev will not be protected by these provisions as he is a former President of the USSR, not Russia.

Medvedev Will be one of the Main Beneficiaries of the Law

One of the first beneficiaries of this new law is former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. Alexey Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation published a report and a movie that link Medvedev to an impressive number of yachts, residences and even two vineyards, both in Russia and abroad. The residences that Navalny mentioned are connected to charity foundations headed by the former Russian leader’s close friends and colleagues from school, but none of them are formally owned by Medvedev himself.

The investigation says that companies associated with charity foundations were resold to each other, and that it remains unclear if various loans were ever paid back to creditors. But Russia’s immunity provisions would allow the likes of Medvedev to get away with his alleged crimes.

And then there is Putin himself, who stands to benefit the most from this new law. For example, the immunity provisions mean that the Russian President will never be held to account for the deaths of liberal politician Boris Nemtsov, investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya, exiled Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, and the poisonings of Sergei and Yulia Skirpal.

Putin’s Lifelong Free Ride

According to a list from the Russian human-rights group Memorial, 102 people have been held in Russian prisons for their political beliefs. Famous past prisoners have included oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Putin will never be questioned for the reasons why he imprisoned numerous political dissenters, thanks to this new legislation.

There are many other reasons why Putin deserves to be held to account for past actions such as the illegal invasion of the Ukraine, but these immunity provisions are a devastating blow to opponents of the Russian President’s regime, who were hoping that they would one day see justice served.

The Washington Post claims that the Russian leader’s biggest fear is to be held accountable for his choices, and that is a pretty accurate way to sum up Putin’s immunity provisions. Political leaders who have nothing to hide should not be afraid to be questioned over decisions that they made throughout their terms in office. As of this week, Russia has moved closer toward becoming an authoritarian regime.

There is no evidence yet that Putin has found a worthy successor, but whoever it is will more than likely continue to grant him lifelong immunity. Putin has no interest in appointing someone who will radically alter the path he has taken Russia down for the last twenty years.

This week marks another sad occasion for Russian politics.

L'articolo Russia’s Parliament to Give Russian Presidents Lifetime Immunity from Prosecution proviene da InsideOver.

A new book by Wall Street Journal reporters Bradley Hope and Justin Scheck exposes the blatant hypocrisy and corruption of Saudi politics and its crown prince, deputy prime minister and minister of defense Mohammad bin Salman (MBS).

Welcome to the Party

Bin Salman’s over the top behavior and ruthless actions are part of a wider pattern of many Gulf elites who act out their hard-partying fantasies in lavish playgrounds around the world and pursue money and power at any cost.

Hope and Scheck’s book Blood and Oil: Mohammed bin Salman’s Ruthless Quest for Global Power details some jaw-dropping incidents of corruption and bin Salman’s partying, such as a 2015 trip to the Maldives with a small group of other friends and colleagues where the entire island of Velaa was rented out for $50 million for a month-long celebration. Bin Salman insisted that no modern smartphones be used and took extra precautions that the time on the island would be private and would not leak to the press.

Bin Salman was 29 at the time and had 150 gorgeous women flown in from around the world and famous musicians Pitbull, Afrojack and the Korean rapper Psy. The women were tested for sexually transmitted diseases before bin Salman and his friends met them and copious alcohol, which is illegal in Saudi Arabia, was served. At one point bin Salman got excited during an Afrojack show and jumped onstage to take over the DJ table from him as his compatriots cheered.

The planned celebration was cut short before one week was up, however, after it leaked to the local press and bin Salman and his entourage packed up and quickly departed.

Getting Rich

This is just one episode in the life of MBS, who owns a 439-foot yacht and numerous homes worth in the hundreds of millions including a $300 million chateau near Versailles, France. He worked his way up to becoming extremely wealthy despite growing up as not overly rich by royal standards because of his father King Salman’s indebtedness to various princes and corporate figures.

The first way MBS reportedly made a lot of money was by selling off expensive gold coins and lavish watches given to him as presents, a trick that earned him $100,000. He went on to found a garbage disposal company and real estate company and got the nickname “Father of the Bullet” after sending a bullet to a man who wouldn’t sell him a piece of land he wanted.

MBS is close to Jared Kushner and his country is a close ally of the US. Due to Muslim beliefs, Saudi Arabia has strict penalties for drinking alcohol, taking drugs, premarital sex and many of the other behaviors which members of its family have engaged in abroad.

Money Talks

The Saudi royal family is the richest family on the planet and is worth an estimated $1.4 trillion. That is more than 16 times more than the British royal family. Oil is the main source of revenue for the 15,000-member royal family who inhabit luxurious villas and palaces around the country.

Furniture made out of high-grade gold is very popular among members of the royal family, as is dabbling in other pastimes like art collection. MBS paid $450 million for the painting Salvator Mundi (Savior of the World) by Leonardo da Vinci in 2017 and he also has plans to buy a soccer team. 

While the royal family is massively rich, many Saudis are not. It is a common misconception that because the government is well off the people must be as well, but in fact 20 percent of Saudis live in poverty and many can’t afford to buy a home. The country has a significant and growing problem with income inequality. As Scheck and Hope outline in their book, this is one of the reasons MBS wanted his time on Velaa kept secret because he is aware of the Saudi people’s disgust at the behavior of the royal family buying expensive cars in the UK or throwing outlandish parties.

Corruption Central

Like the nearby United Arab Emirates, which is also suffused with corruption, Saudi Arabia is a den of greed and double-dealing bolstered by huge oil reserves and a very powerful military. Saudi Arabia is the largest importer of weapons in the world and has one of the strongest military forces in the Middle East as well as a powerful foreign lobby which often shields royals who make mistakes abroad and works to abduct dissidents who are living abroad.

Royals who go against the grain aren’t safe either, and in the past Prince Sultan bin Turki, Prince Saud bin Saif and Prince Turki bin Bandar were abducted because of their criticism of the government, as well as the 2018 murder of journalist and American resident Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.

Riyadh helps its own citizens escape justice when they commit crimes in other nations such as the US, which happened in the case of Saudi citizen Abdulrahman Noorah who sped through a school zone and killed a 15-year-old student in 2016. Riyadh posted $100,000 bail for Noorah, who faced a charge of manslaughter. Despite giving up his passport and wearing an ankle monitor, however, Noorah disappeared and a week later was back in Saudi Arabia beyond the reach of American justice, since Riyadh has no extradition treaty with Washington.

According to declassified FBI documents, Riyadh “almost certainly” helps Saudis get out of the US who have done crimes including manslaughter, rape and possession of child pornography. Ali Alhamoud is another Saudi citizen who escaped back to Saudi Arabia after being charged with multiple sexual assault charges in the US. Saudi authorities deny all accusations that they help citizens escape charges abroad.

Another of the many, many cases occurred in 2015, when Saudi Prince Majed Abdulaziz al-Saud fled after a three day party at a mansion he was renting in Beverley Hills, where he was accused of raping multiple women including a bleeding woman who was found trying to escape.

The Bottom Line

The partying and wealth of Saudi royals like bin Salman exposes deep hypocrisy but is also a veneer on an unjust society. Saudi Arabia has a growing problem with poverty and most people don’t have good access to education, healthcare or even fully functioning sanitary systems and housing.

The country is also full of numerous abusive practices, such as domestic maids often brought in from Southeast Asia and stripped of their passports. Some maids report being made to work 18 hours a day and sexually and physically abused. Thousands of maids become so desperate they run away and try to do anything to escape; 5,000 ran away between 2013 to 2014 alone.

Hope and Scheck’s book documents MBS’ rise to power and the culture of greed and ruthlessness which surrounds him and which he embodies. Western countries who want strong economic and military ties with Saudi Arabia may not care much, but helping prop up a corrupt oil monarchy is not something that should be high on the list of any self-respecting nation.

L'articolo New Book Showcases Saudi Crown Prince’s Blatant Hypocrisy proviene da InsideOver.

When French President Emmanuel Macron visited Beirut on Thursday following the devastating explosion there that killed approximately 137 people, he was mobbed through the city. Residents implored him to help them as they denounced their own leaders. He was the first global leader to visit the city since the tragedy.

The Lebanese People Have Lost Faith in Their Political Leaders

The desperate pleas from Lebanese citizens toward the French President show that this is a country that has truly lost faith in its own political elite. Lebanese security forces fired teargas at demonstrators in Beirut as anger over the nation’s leadership grew following the explosion in the city that laid waste to large parts of the capital on Tuesday. Protesters had gathered outside the Lebanese Parliament, where a small fire was lit and stones were thrown at security forces, according to the Guardian. 

The same thing happened last October, which led to Lebanon’s security forces being condemned in a recent report by Human Rights Watch for using excessive force against demonstrators on several occasions.

Aid and Reform Should Be Linked

Last year’s October demonstrations led to the resignation of Saad al-Hariri, who was prime minister of Lebanon at the time. Lebanese President Michael Aoun has recently launched a probe to investigate whether external interference might have caused the explosion, but his actions are likely to fall upon deaf ears as the explosion in Beirut has led to calls for wider political reform, particularly from Macron, who has said that any aid that comes from France must be tied to political change.

Macron has a unique opportunity to persuade the rest of the international community to pressure Lebanon’s political elite into reforming its system. Following the collapse of the Turkish Ottoman Empire in World War One, Lebanon became a French protectorate until 1943. Therefore, the French Government has a vested interest in ensuring that peace and stability is restored to the former French protectorate.

Macron Has Many advantages in Leading the Effort for Change in Lebanon

France is a leading member of NATO and the United Nations and Macron can use his influence over both institutions to persuade other world leaders that Lebanon is likely to become increasingly vulnerable to Iranian influence if they choose not to help. The Washington Institute discovered that the Iranian Government provides Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah with $100 million per year. As Iran is currently forging closer ties to Russia and Turkey in the Middle East, the French President has a chance to urge his counterparts to not let Lebanon become vulnerable to a power vacuum.

Macron is also one of the few Western leaders who has a somewhat decent relationship with US President Donald Trump. The US’s support will be vital in the future if Lebanon has any hope of reforming its political system. Trump should follow Macron’s lead if he is serious about preventing Moscow, Ankara and Tehran from taking advantage of Lebanon’s vulnerability.

As the Council on Foreign Relations’ Amir Asmar suggests, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were instrumental in defeating ISIS and it is one of the few institutions that Lebanon’s citizens have a positive view of. They were able to beat IS because of US funding, which is why it would be in Trump’s best interest to fund the LAF so that they can prevent Hezbollah from strengthening its grip over Lebanon.

Macron Must Avoid Repeating the Mistakes He Made in Libya

Despite this, Macron’s interventions in Middle Eastern politics have had mixed results so far. Although the French President produced a four-point plan that could have persuaded Iran to end its nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of US sanctions, neither the US nor Iran are likely to agree upon a new deal before the US election in November.

The French President’s desire to end the Libyan war is genuine, but his actions have been rather clumsy. The 2018 Paris summit failed to consult a wide range of actors in the Libyan conflict, which is a mistake Macron should not make in Lebanon should he go down this route.

On the whole, Macron is the only world leader best placed to persuade the international community that they need to support political change in Lebanon, and he was right to suggest that aid needs to be tied to reform. He just needs to remember the lessons he should have learnt from his intervention in Libya to ensure that he is successful in helping the former French protectorate transform its government for the better.

L'articolo Can Macron Persuade Allies to Force Political Change on Lebanon? proviene da InsideOver.

2020 will be regarded as one of the worst years in Lebanese history because of an explosion that happened in the country’s capital, Beirut, on Tuesday.

What Caused the Blast?

According to Lebanese President Michael Aoun, the blast was caused by 2,740 tons of ammonium nitrate stored unsafely in a warehouse.

The explosion killed approximately 137 people and injured about 5,000 others as of the latest reports. Dozens of people are still missing and the incident has triggered a two-week state of emergency.

Ammonium nitrate is used as a fertilizer in agriculture and as an explosive. It had reportedly been stored in the warehouse in the port for six years after it was unloaded from a ship impounded in 2013.

Beirut’s Residents are Angry

There is a sense of anger throughout Beirut. The BBC‘s Lisa Sinjab reports that the same people who protested in the streets last October are angry that their politicians failed to prevent this explosion from happening. It is staggering that this was allowed to happen considering the head of the port and the head of the customs authority both told local media that they had written to the judiciary numerous times asking that the chemical be sold or exported to ensure port safety.

This explosion will have a lasting impact on Lebanon’s psyche, alongside many other events that have damaged the country’s self-confidence. It is a desperate call for things to change in Lebanon.

How Can the International Community Help Lebanon?

Perhaps this is where the international community can play its part. French President Emmanuel Macron said that his country will provide aid to Lebanon if the political elite initiate wide-range reforms, and the Lebanese Government is not in a position to say no because of the state of the economy.

Time suggests that one in three Lebanese citizens are unemployed, the currency has lost 80 percent of its value against the dollar since last fall, and mains electricity is only available for a few hours each day. The lockdown made things worse. A July 28 report showed that almost a million people in greater Beirut do not have money for sufficient food.

Anger at Lebanon’s political elite has been growing for some time. Not long before the explosion in Beirut, Human Rights Watch submitted a report to the UN Human Rights Council in advance of the next periodic review of its human rights situation in January 2021. The report suggests that Lebanon has not made progress on a number of recommendations it accepted following its previous review in 2015.

Lebanon Suffering from Widespread Corruption

The report states that Lebanese security forces have used excessive force on several occasions against demonstrators, especially following the nation’s October 17, 2019 uprising, often with impunity. Furthermore, prosecutions against people exercising their free speech rights have increased rapidly since 2015.

The rest of the report makes for grim reading. Lebanon’s penal code is still being applied to criminalize same-sex relations, and security forces have interfered with human rights events related to gender and sexuality based on spurious “morality” claims.

The nation’s dollar shortage has contributed toward the difficulties Lebanon’s health sector is facing as patients are not being provided with necessary life-saving medical care. This is because of the Government’s failure to provide public and private hospitals with the money it owes them.

The US Has a Part to Play in Lebanon’s Future

As the Council on Foreign Relations‘ Amir Asmar argues, the Lebanese people must yield positive change without embroiling the country into another civil war. Their desire to remove all sectarian considerations from government and policy is necessary for Lebanon to flourish, although it is unlikely to happen. Perhaps the explosion in Beirut could stimulate further demands for change, and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has a role to play here due to the positive view many Lebanese citizens have of this institution.

With US support, the LAF helped defeat Islamic State. The US should have a stake in Lebanon’s future, too, because if they can assist the LAF in any way, then they can prevent Hezbollah and its Shi’ite militia from emerging as the only fighting force in the country.

The explosion in Beirut will have a negative impact on Lebanon’s psyche, but it could also be a moment for positive change. Lebanon’s people need to feel more optimistic about the future, but that will not happen without the aid of external forces. Will the international community heed this nation’s call for help?

L'articolo Beirut Explosion Will Have a Lasting Impact on Lebanon’s Psyche proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli politics remain in flux. After the Israeli election committee released the official result of the general election, it is evident that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has again missed a governable majority. In addition, Netanyahu continues to face legal trouble.

Israel’s Latest Deadlocked Election

Israel’s most recent parliamentary election took place on March 2. On March 10, Israel’s central electoral committee released the official result, and with amplification of Israel’s government and Prime Minister Netanyahu, in particular. His conservative Likud party obtained the most seats in the Knesset with 36 of 120 seats, as the election committee confirmed. However, the right-religious camp around the Likud failed with 58 seats combined with the necessary majority of 61. The Blue and White party of ex-military chief Benny Gantz obtained 33 seats and the center-left camp, thus a total of 55 seats. The third-strongest force in parliament was the United Arab List with 15 mandates. Former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman received seven mandates with his Israel Beitenu party and could thus become the decisive man in the question of government formation.

High Turnout Couldn’t Turn the Tide

The turnout was around 71.5 percent, and thus higher than in the two previous elections. In April 2019, it was a good 68 percent, in September just under 70 percent. Nevertheless, the political stalemate after the third election within a year has not changed. On Wednesday, the official results were handed over to Israeli President Reuven Rivlin, who now has seven days to instruct a candidate to form a government. For this purpose, Rivlin seeks to meet with representatives of the individual political groups this Sunday.

This is where the real issues for Netanyahu begin. If Gantz were to be proposed by Lieberman and the Arab List in conversation with Rivlin, the president could then instruct Gantz to form a government, even though his party only came second and behind Netanyahu in the election. In the past few days, Gantz has already consulted both Lieberman and representatives of the United Arab List about a possible coalition. This scenario is, therefore, a valid option in Israel and would finally create a hoped-for government majority. It remains to be seen; however, how stable a coalition between the three parties can become.

Netanyahu’s Mounting Troubles

The potential end as Prime Minister is not the only problem for Netanyahu these days. A court in Jerusalem rejected his request to postpone the corruption process against him. There were insufficient grounds for postponement, the court ruled. The hearing scheduled for March 17 is, therefore, “reserved for reading the charges,” but Netanyahu’s response or defense is not necessary at this stage of the trial.

In a letter to the court, the Prime Minister’s lawyers asked for the trial to be postponed by 45 days. They argued that they had “not yet received all the documents related to the investigation.” Netanyahu is charged with bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. He denies all allegations by the public prosecutor and sees himself as a victim of a “witch hunt” by the public prosecutor and the media – a term any political observer ought to be rather cognizant of.

According to Israeli law, a prime minister may remain in office; he only has to resign after a final judgment. Opposition MPs in the Knesset are considering a bill that would prevent accused politicians from forming a government.

Three elections within a year are testimony of Israel’s political issues and the division in the country. Netanyahu has once again failed to convince a majority and is thus apparently lacking the support he used to command. The upcoming weekend will likely decide Netanyahu’s future. Signs are pointing towards a coalition with Gantz at the head of the table and, in this case, taking the helm as the inevitable new prime minister of Israel.

L'articolo Netanyahu’s Weekend of Truth proviene da InsideOver.

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro said he was open for talks with his American counterpart Donald Trump with hopes of improving ties with the US and ending a prolonged political crisis in Venezuela. However, it is uncertain whether the US is willing to do so due to Trump’s hard stance on Venezuela’s socialist government.

During the interview with the Washington Post, Maduro said he was willing to sit down with Trump, suggesting that both countries can benefit from the recovered ties based on mutual respects.

 “If there’s respect between governments, no matter how big the United States is, and if there’s a dialogue, an exchange of truthful information, then be sure we can create a new type of relationship,” the former bus driver told the Post.

Maduro also slammed the White House’s hardliners such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser John Bolton for supporting economic embargoes that have worsened Venezuela’s financial crisis (triggered by the sharp drop in global oil prices in 2014).

“I believe Mike Pompeo has failed in Venezuela and is responsible for Donald Trump’s failure in his policy toward our country. I think Pompeo lives in a fantasy. He’s not a man with his feet on earth. I think Trump has had terrible advisers on Venezuela. John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Elliott Abrams have caused him to have a wrong vision,” Maduro added.

How did the US react?

In response to the Post interview with Maduro, Bolton tweeted that negotiations are unlikely, adding that Maduro should be an exile in either Cuba or Russia, among the countries that back the former aide to the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.

“Maduro tells the Washington Post he wants negotiations with the United States? The only negotiations we should have with Maduro are what he wants for lunch on the plane that will take him to permanent exile in Cuba or Russia. Viva Venezuela libre.”

Maduro tells the Washington Post he wants negotiations with the United States? The only negotiations we should have with Maduro are what he wants for lunch on the plane that will take him to permanent exile in Cuba or Russia. Viva Venezuela libre. @JGuaido

— John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) January 19, 2020

An Overview of Venezuela’s Crisis

The economic crisis in the oil-rich nation turned into the political discontent due to the growing distrust in the socialist regime. In 2017, mass rallies took place to protest against Maduro’s new constitution, which was seen as a threat to democracy.

In May 2018, Maduro won re-election against his contender, Henri Falcon, meaning that the socialist politician would secure another six-year term in office.

Maduro’s victory divided Venezuela, as well as Latin American nations and the world. Venezuela’s opposition groups and the West accused Maduro of rigging the vote. They called for a fresh election, while countries such as China, Russia, Turkey, and some of the leftist nations such as Bolivia supported Maduro and slammed the West for interfering in Venezuela’s domestic politics.

An unknown politician from the opposing side Juan Guaido became a self-proclaimed president, the US, and its European allies supported. Earlier this month, the 36-year-old man was sworn in as the head of the National Assembly despite being blocked from entering the parliament building.

Will the talks with Trump be a reality?

Maduro’s call for talks with Trump came as no surprise, given that in early 2019 he confirmed that Venezuela’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Jorge Arreaza had secretly met with the US envoy to Caracas in New York. The incumbent expressed his readiness to talk with Trump anytime, anywhere, without specifying more detail.

Two senior Venezuela officials confirmed Maduro’s statement, but they had no authority to talk publicly about the meeting. Both officials admitted that Arreaza and the US envoy Elliott Abrams had met twice at Washington’s request.

In August, Norway mediated the talks between Venezuela’s government and opposition representatives. However, the negotiations faltered.

In the recent interview with the Washington Post, Maduro hoped that he could meet with Trump and asked the POTUS to remove the economic sanctions that have worsened the crisis.

Despite Venezuela’s mismanagement in the oil sector and corrupt government, the US-backed sanctions have killed tens of thousands and halted Venezuelans to access food and health care, according to the Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) report in 2017.

The sanctions are depriving Venezuelans of lifesaving medicines, medical equipment, food, and other essential imports. This is illegal under US and international law and treaties that the US has signed. Congress should move to stop it,” the report said as The Independent quoted.

Unlike Bolivia’s President Evo Morales who resigned following protests against his re-election, Maduro’s position is still strong thanks to the military support he has enjoyed so far.

Trump has yet to respond to Maduro’s call so far. However, as long as the US does not want to recognize Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate leader and insists on sanctions, the talks (if they take place) unlikely to create peace for Venezuela.

L'articolo Maduro’s Ready To Talk To Trump, No Response From The White House So Far proviene da InsideOver.

The Arab Spring of 2010 – 2011 has not rolled on to summer days for Yemen. Now a war-torn nation, Yemen is the victim of both weak internal politics as well as external meddling. Prompted by the Spring unrest in many parts of the Islamic world, Yemen in 2011 experienced a “transition” from the stale, authoritarian presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who handed over his rule to his then deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

Although the flimsiest of concessions – as opposed to a wholesale renewal of government based on multiparty elections – it seemed the civil transfer of power was good enough for Yemen’s people, and it would enable the country to go forward with higher hopes. The incoming Hadi, however, was quickly beset by southern separatists’ aspirations, persistent loyalty among the military top brass towards Saleh, ongoing corruption, unemployment and food scarcity, as well as sporadic jihadist attacks.

Today, Yemen is a country tarnished throughout by civil war, with Saleh’s old enemies – the Houthi movement that fights for control by the country’s Zaidi Shia Muslim minority – having taken control of the north with relative ease. The Houthi’s stronghold was always the Saada province, and the movement now controls it, along with several surrounding areas.

As Hadi’s inability to address Yemen’s affairs grew more apparent, the Houthi’s popular appeal grew, and the movement attracted both Shia and Sunni Muslim residents’ sympathies. Popular support due to lingering dissatisfaction – combined with a weak and remote government – saw fighting erupt, enabling a Houthi coup in late 2014. The capital city Sanaa also fell to rebel control in 2015, while Hadi was forced into exile. Both Houthi aggression as well as variably substantiated allegations of Yemeni military leaders – in cahoots with erstwhile president Saleh – supporting such actions, ensured Hadi’s departure into exile, leaving behind a torn government, and a people in crisis.

Yemen’s internal strife exacerbated from the outside

The current internecine stalemate has wrought havoc on the nation’s food supplies, bringing many to the brink of starvation all over the country. For many Yemeni families, feeding their children, as well as accessing needed medical care, are evaporating hopes. Malnutrition is rife in some areas, in a country that was never a bread basket to begin with. The current hostilities have interrupted Yemen’s ports, the food supplies that typically flowed from these coastal regions, as well as many citizens’ ability to plant and manage a seasonal crop.

Exacerbating the hardship for Yemeni’s are the various players forcing their own interests in the region, those who have latched onto fragmented Yemen with fervour. Neighbouring (Sunni) Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition of neighbouring states in offensives against the Houthi encampments, with Saudi jets frequently bombing targets in the north country. Hospitals and schools too have been destroyed, and aid agencies have repeatedly condemned the targeted destruction of civilian installations. Millions of Yemen’s children have been forced to abandon their education.

Although the coalition’s air and ground actions, as well as the naval blockade still in place along the coastline, are alleged to be in keeping with UN Charter articles, critics have disputed this, and pointed to the real ramifications for common Yemenis. Widespread criticism of the coalition’s efforts have centered more specifically on those of Saudi Arabia, accused of seeking particularly the collapse of any Shia Muslim movement on its borders, rather than any egalitarian or democratic end result. With the vast southern coastal stretch also broadly yet sparsely dotted with Al Qaeda operatives, common Yemenis seem trapped within their own borders.

Most painfully, all parties in the Yemeni war appear to be accepting civilian casualties with a new disregard for non-combatant human life. The war is being waged on a new low as regards the safety of civilians, and their current often desperate needs, with alarming statistics of civilian deaths now commonplace.

To date, the Houthi movement remains in control of the territory they originally conquered, while the coalition partners, in conjunction with many European nations’ support, are hoping for a greater, final offensive to restore the erstwhile government of Hadi.

Notwithstanding over 18,000 air raids by Saudi jets, the coalition remains unconvinced that a ground force offensive would be able to recapture Sanaa, or any of the terrain Houthi rebels currently control. Iran – Saudi relations are at an all-time low, and Iran is seen as the Houthi movement’s principal benefactor, although its ability to arm and supply rebel forces is intermittently hamstrung by current monitoring.

Amidst all of the carnage, Yemen’s children are dying

Not only have over 80,000 people – civilians and combatants – died in the conflict, over two million children are at risk of dying from conditions brought on by severe malnutrition. Millions of Yemenis are on the move, having fled their homes for areas away from conflict hot spots, typically finding themselves cut off from conventional food supplies or healthcare services of any kind when they arrive.

Children are paying the heaviest price, according to UNICEF and other agencies doing relief work in the country. Poverty in Yemen was a social scourge even before the Arab Spring, and has simply increased under the current internecine warfare.

The war has dramatically worsened Yemen’s humanitarian situation, resulting in a full-blown catastrophe, which some agencies have called genocide. All warring parties are gripped by the desire for military conquest, while peace talks – and the nation’s hungry population – lie forgotten. Reporters on the ground regularly file reports of civilian installations being bombed by Saudi jets. Aid agencies are hampered by Yemen’s geography too, with an entire northern border running alongside Saudi Arabia, and the entire southern coast variably beset with foreign naval warships policing the seas.

In spite of such difficulties, prominent agencies are active on the ground in Yemen, but they face a daunting task. Not only are supplies often lost, curtailed or simply irregular, the theft of food aid is being used as a tool of war, often in an attempt to weaken Houthi resistance. The Houthi rebels too, frequently steal food donations that they then distribute only to those who express wholesale support for the movement. Civilians pay the heaviest toll, as the warring parties in this conflict have made food scarcity an offensive tactic.

Millions of children face malnourishment in 2020

As fighting intensifies, humanitarian organisations are at risk of succumbing to the carnage and being forced to retreat. Recent attacks in December 2019 on specifically aid agencies’ encampments have alarmed the UN, while agency workers on the ground say that the real victims will be the Yemeni people. As the war drags on, agencies are mostly in agreement that more than half the population will need food aid to avoid malnutrition or outright starvation in the coming months.

Never an agriculturally giving land, failed or absent crops unsupported by imports make the threat of famine engulfing Yemen a looming probability. Now in winter, if the region is at all impacted by climate change this coming summer season, aid workers fear the worst if the scant rainfall eludes farmers altogether. Caught between the internal conflict and an average annual rainfall of just 127mm, failed summer rains could well prove to be the last straw that propels millions into starvation.

More than any other recent crisis, Yemen’s humanitarian disaster has focused a spotlight on humanitarian aid – food and medical supplies – in terms of how it is dispatched, distributed and ultimately consumed. Although the UN raised an amount of some $3 billion that was needed to address malnutrition and starvation in Yemen in 2018 – 2019, it has been criticised by potential recipients for allegedly allowing the Houthi rebels to distribute food. Most likely a marriage of convenience, it seems at times that Houthi “oversight” and “distribution” is the best aid agencies can hope for. Stories of rebels confiscating food or selling it on the black market – often directly from a crate still bearing a UN or other insignia – have seen their popular support souring in many locales.

Allegations that the movement steals children to train as soldiers or use as human shields have also encouraged many families to flee, exacerbating the situation, and pushing the country towards more hardship and starvation. With peace talks mooted but as yet unmanifest, the conflict in Yemen looks set to drag on into 2020, meaning that the death toll among Yemen’s most vulnerable – the children – will continue to climb.

L'articolo Thousands of Yemeni Children at Risk of Dying from Malnutrition proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to seek parliamentary immunity from prosecution over corruption charges. Until fresh elections have been held in March, a trial will likely be delayed. This will be the third election Netanyahu faces in one year.

Why Was Netanyahu Charged?

Netanyahu is alleged by prosecutors to have accepted presents from wealthy businessmen and alleged favors to try and generate more positive press coverage. Because of these criminal indictments, on December 12, Netanyahu announced that he would drop all portfolios from his cabinet on January 1st other than his role of Prime Minister. Beside being Prime Minister, Netanyahu has served as Israel’s Social Welfare Minister, Diaspora Affairs Minister, and acting Agricultural Minister. Until Sunday, he was also Israel’s Health Minister.

Pros And Cons For Netanyahu

The Prime Minister has one factor going in his favor: a trial cannot commence once an immunity request is made and the Israeli parliament the Knesset – which has been dissolved because of fresh elections—is unlikely to rule on the request before then. Any Israeli prime minister must resign if they are convicted.

The cons of Netanyahu’s decision far outweigh the advantages. Elections held in April and September 2019 witnessed the Prime Minister’s Likud Party deadlocked with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party. They both gained 32 and 33 seats, respectively.

The Prime Minister’s impeachment charges were the biggest obstacle to coalition negotiations, despite his protests that he is innocent. Until Netanyahu faces trial for the crimes he has been accused of, it will remain almost impossible for him to form a functioning government, regardless of the result of March’s election.

His opponents have already made it clear that they will not vote to retain his position and they have reacted angrily to Netanyahu’s decision to call fresh elections. Both Gantz and Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, have said they will vote against the Prime Minister’s immunity request.

Forced Compromise

Furthermore, the Israeli electoral system is designed to prevent a single party from gaining a working majority. Based on proportional representation, its intention is to ensure that smaller parties can influence the will of the ruling party, and trigger the dissolution of a newly elected parliament if necessary. Therefore, it does not matter whether Netanyahu increases the number of seats Likud currently hold, without being able to form a coalition, they will not be able to achieve anything until they compromise with their opponents.

Last month, Netanyahu defeated former aide and Cabinet minister Gideon Sa’ar in a Likud primary, winning 72 percent of the vote. Although he has succeeded in unifying the party’s base, he may find the next election a struggle. Polls indicate the March vote will produce a similar outcome to September’s, which will lead to another year of deadlock. The Christian Science Monitor’s Joseph Krauss referred to Netanyahu as a “political magician” who could transform this situation into an opportunity. His stance on the 2015 Iran Deal is popular with voters, but his political fortunes have waned and it is difficult to argue March will be any different for him.

Also, Sa’ar is unlikely to go anywhere. Polls show that 50 percent of Israelis believe that Netanyahu should resign and if he fails to increase Likud’s share of the vote in March, this will increase the pressure on him to step aside. Although the Likud’s structure demands complete loyalty from its members which prevents leaders from being ousted in a coup, the fall of Netanyahu and Sa’ar’s links to the Blue and White Party could be two factors that go in the latter’s favor, and could help create a functioning government.

The Prime Minister has bought himself short-term immunity, but this is the only factor in his favor when it comes to holding another election. His decision carries far more risks and if he fails to win a majority, he will find an unsympathetic Knesset will vote to impeach him. Likud’s luck could be running out.

L'articolo Why a March Election is Risky for Benjamin Netanyahu proviene da InsideOver.

1,660kg of cocaine was found in Guinea-Bissau in September 2019, in one of Africa’s biggest drug seizures. The drugs, found in a bungalow outside Canchungo, Guinea-Bissau, was seized with another 250kg of cocaine found in a couple of houses nearby.

Three Colombians, a Mexican and eight other people were arrested at the scenes of the crime. A further eighteen cars were seized, along with a speedboat. The drugs were headed for Europe, where the UN World Drug Report 2019 has recorded increased cocaine use, alongside North America.

Earlier in March, Guinea-Bissau police seized 800kg of cocaine in the country known as “smuggler’s paradise”. Poverty and corrupt, dysfunctional judicial systems have left West Africa increasingly prone to drug smuggling rings.

More than a decade ago, Colombian drug cartels arrived in West Africa. Their purpose was to turn the region into a transit hub for cocaine being imported from Latin America and into Europe. Africa’s political instability has also left citizens vulnerable to the drug smuggling trade.

‘The fact of the matter is that without assistance, Guinea-Bissau is at the mercy of wealthy, well-armed and technologically advanced narcotics traffickers,’ said the Consultancy Africa Intelligence agency.

A senior official at the US’s Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) said: “Geographically, West Africa makes sense. The logical thing is for the cartels to take the shortest crossing over the ocean to West Africa, by plane – to one of the many airstrips left behind by decades of war, or by drop into the thousands of little bays – or by boat all the way. A ship can drop anchor in waters completely unmonitored, while fleets of smaller craft take the contraband ashore.

“A place like Guinea Bissau is a failed state anyway, so it’s like moving into an empty house.

“There is no prison in Guinea-Bissau. One rusty ship patrols a coastline of 350km, and an archipelago of 82 islands. The airspace is un-patrolled. The police have few cars, no petrol, no radios, handcuffs or phones.

“You walk in, buy the services you need from the government, army and people, and take over. The cocaine can then be stored safely and shipped to Europe, either by ship to Spain or Portugal, across land via Morocco on the old cannabis trail, or directly by air using ‘mules’.”

The global drugs trade is an incredibly complex, illicit industry. Law enforcement worldwide have found it impossible to control this industry, because of its complexity.

From the farmers who feed their families growing cocaine to the law enforcement officers who turn a blind eye for a ‘cut’ of the profits, to the everyday citizen in Europe – including wealthy, powerful people, some politicians – who abuse the drugs, the drug chain is too long and too complex to be defeated.

The United States would finally admit to this impossibility when different states began legalising recreational marijuana use, starting with Colorado in 2012. Unfortunately, this war on drugs would come at a huge cost to the country’s African American population who were deliberately criminalised for decades, by the US government, for using and selling marijuana.

In Europe, the rhetoric of blame continues to be used when talking about drug trafficking in Africa. News reports fully blame the lack of police equipment and social infrastructure that have attracted Latin American drug lords to operate in the area. Yet, West Africa’s drug trafficking would not be catalysed if demand from Europe didn’t make drug trafficking extremely profitable.

This is a rhetoric of power: the people who use the drugs from safe distances are allowed to point fingers at those who grow, make and traffic the drugs in unsafe, dangerous and, many times, hopeless conditions.

In 2011, Matthew S. Jenner, from the Indiana University Maurer School of Law would argue against criminalising drug trafficking.

“Forty years ago, the world declared war on drugs,” he wrote. “Today, after decades of failing to adequately control drug consumption, an even graver problem has emerged: violent drug traffickers have taken the industry hostage and will stop at nothing to preserve their power.

“Governments have instituted dozens of programs to dismantle the illicit drug industry, but they have seen only marginal success.”

In 2009, the West Africa Coast Initiative (WACI) was launched by United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (DPA/UNOWAS), Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) and The International Crime Police Organization (INTERPOL).

Its goal is to use force to “address the menace of transnational organized crime, including drug trafficking.” It is operational in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau and Cote D’Ivoire.

“All the venues are being screened to expand the WACI programme implementation beyond the initial five targeted States, to serve as a model for all ECOWAS members,” its website states.

The presence of WACI in these countries will only serve to make drug traffickers more crafty in their trade, and government officials more prone to corruption.

The global drugs trade is “one of the top five largest industries in the world after the arms trade”. Rather than making forceful attempts to squash this globalised and heavily-profitable network, Africa’s biggest challenge would be to fix the sociopolitical and economic problems drawing its local population to this industry.

The future of the African Union is dependent on the continent achieving its aims to “promote sustainable development at the economic, social and cultural levels” and to “promote peace, security, and stability on the continent”.

The ENACT transnational organised crime programme’s research and analysis of Africa’s drug trade, policy, and future consumption trends reveals that sub-Saharan Africa will see the globe’s biggest surge in illicit drug users in the next 30 years, caused by organised crime and ineffective policy. With one in four people in the world predicted to be African by that time, the AU must hasten to achieve its sociopolitical and economic aims by its 2063 deadline.

West Africa’s opiate crisis, today, is an example of bigger problems to come if the AU does not meet its objectives. The same problems that caused West Africa’s drug trafficking boom are the same problems that will continue to exacerbate the problem unless the root of this continental malaise is addressed.

L'articolo The Global Drugs Trade Finds a Profitable Hub in West Africa proviene da InsideOver.

Security risks, historically low turnout, voter fraud, lapses in the biometric system and bickering amongst political candidates are some of the reasons why Afghans are beginning to feel alienated from the Presidential Elections held in September.

Although more than two months have passed since the election date, the country’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) is yet to count the votes.

The results were initially due on October 19 but the date was extended after the IEC’s ill-trained staff were faced with technical difficulties due to the use of biometric data systems –first time in the country’s electoral history.

However, the IEC officials failed to meet that deadline. On November 2, the commission said votes from all 34 provinces will be tallied again. The results of which, it said, will be announced on November 14.

But another deadline came and went; election officials postponed the results yet again. However, this time around, they did not even give a new date.

Apart from the low turnout and biometric failure on Election Day, the delays in the announcement of the results have raised suspicions over the veracity of the counting process.

What is causing the delay?

The bone of contentions lies with the dispute amongst the top-two candidates – Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah – who have both alleged voter fraud in the counting process.

On the Election Day, the IEC reported that around 26,500 polling stations were open, from which it received ballot papers from around 25,500 stations. However, of the papers received from these stations, the IEC had biometric verification on ballots from only 24,800 stations.

But campaigners have said that of the estimated 24,800 stations, they will only accept votes from around 18,850 stations. The rest of the votes, they say are inadmissible.

However, following the initial delay in the announcement of results and verifying the votes, the IEC managed to add data from around 8,400 more stations to the tally. Subsequently, to recount the votes, it had to extend the announcement date to November 14.

However, this time around, the revisions in the total number of stations were not accepted by the election campaigners.

After the IEC announced the revised ballot numbers, Abdullah, the incumbent chief executive, boycotted the recount.

He said that “we have decided not to participate in the vote recounting process. The IEC’s impartiality will be questioned if it does not review its decision and our next decision will be made after that.”

He complained that “votes from 2,400 ballot boxes have been entered into the servers that don’t have data.”

“There are more than 100,000 votes that came outside the valid time (Before and after the voting process started),” he alleged.

Moreover, he asked the IEC to review its decision on adding the new votes while earning that any “illegal decision” on the election will result in a crisis.

On the other hand, in a recent article published online, Ashraf Ghani’s advisers said that “their margin is so comfortable that even if half a million votes are thrown out, they would still win. Mr Abdullah’s advisers, on the other hand, say if all fraudulent votes are removed their candidate will win in the first round and if some level of questionable votes gets counted, the most likely scenario is a runoff.”

But as the IEC continues to extend the deadlines and candidates allege fraud, it is the Afghans who continue to look at the turn of events with increased pessimism.

For them, the only glimmer of hope has been its democracy but trust in that too is beginning to falter.

L'articolo Postponement, Pessimism and the Afghanistan Presidential Elections proviene da InsideOver.