Stark was the reality of the actual decision-makers and operators of all but the Houthis in war-torn Yemen at the signing ceremony held in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Nov. 5. The figurehead Saudi-backed president of the internationally recognized Yemeni government Abd Rubbo Mansour Hadi was present as his government and UAE-backed Transitional Council of South Yemen signed a peace deal following months of intensive fighting for the control of Yemeni strategic cities and ports. Although the man looked incapacitated as the two strong men of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) and the UAE Muhammad Bin Zayed (MBZ) Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, ran the show.

Personal Agendas Over Conflict

It is not clear how the peace deal orchestrated by the two most powerful players within the Saudi-led coalition in the four-year-old war on Yemen will help end the conflict that has generated one of the worst humanitarian disasters since World War II. While the two Gulf nations and their proxy militias have engaged in bitter fighting for territorial control, Houthi rebels and the Yemeni national army have scored major advances and victories in recent months. Last September alone, three Saudi-backed and coalition brigades fell to the Houthis and thousands of soldiers and proxy fighters surrendered in a humiliating defeat in the Jizan province close to the Yemeni borders with Saudi Arabia. It was then reported that MBS kept the humiliatingly embarrassing news away from his ailing father, King Salman of Saudi Arabia.

Following a series of military blows and a series of successful ballistic missile and suicide drown attacks against vital Saudi oil installations and airports, the United Arab Emirates drew down their troops in Yemen. Most recently, Sudan pulled out many of its forces fighting alongside the Saudis in the country amid signs of deep fractures in the Saudi-led coalition sunk deeper into the Yemeni quagmire for the fourth year running with no sign of a decisive victory yet. In August, the Yemeni separatist movement, backed by MBZ, which seeks self-rule in southern Yemen, targeted government forces as they seized their interim seat in the strategic port city of Aden. The bloody clashes sounded alarm bells in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, raised fears of further undermining the already fractured anti-Houthi alliance along with any chances for working out a negotiated settlement to the catastrophic war in Yemen which has drawn mounting international outrage and criticism.

Therefore, this week’s peace deal between the Yemeni government and the separatists seeking an autonomous rule in the south, seems more of an effort to unite forces and close ranks against their main enemy in Yemen, the Iranian-backed Houthis who reign supreme in the capital Sanaa and other parts in the north. However, the Saudi Crown Prince described the agreement as a crucial step towards a political solution to end a power struggle and eventually Yemen’s bloody war. “This agreement will open a new period of stability in Yemen. The kingdom of Saudi Arabia stands with you,” the Saudi Crown Prince told the Yemeni signatories at the ceremony in Riyadh aired on state television.  Despite this optimistic rhetoric, MBS himself failed to explain how this agreement will effectively help end the war in Yemen at large; that is unless he was referring merely to the southern part of the country and the Saudi-Emirati power struggle there.

Main Points of the Peace Deal

The ‘loosely worded and open to interpretation’ agreement, if successfully implemented on the ground, states that all military and security forces will be incorporated into the defence and interior ministries, introducing a government reshuffle to include the separatists with equal representation, and their armed forces will be placed under government control. It does little more than solve two short-term problems; It prevents a war-within-a-war between the southern separatists and Hadi’s government, and provides more credibility to any future government negotiations with the Houthis.

The UN special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, congratulated the two sides on the deal. “The signing of this agreement is an important step for our collective efforts to advance a peaceful settlement to the conflict in Yemen,” he said in a statement. “Listening to southern stakeholders is important to the political efforts to achieve peace in the country.”

More realistically, the peace agreement will help the Saudis and Emiratis to refocus on fighting the Houthis on Saudi Arabia’s border, and minimize systematic, painful and embarrassing rebel missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities, airfields, military and oil installations which have remarkably increased both scale and damage-wise in recent months. This is due to seriously shake the Saudis self-confidence and their trust in the massive, mainly US-supplied arsenal that has cost the oil-rich Kingdom trillions of dollars and abysmally failed to shoot down cheap-to-buy Houthi killer drones.

L'articolo Deal Unites Yemeni Government and Separatists Against Houthis proviene da InsideOver.

As expected, the ÖVP has won the Austrian Nationalrat election – even more convincing than what was projected by the polls. Meanwhile, its former coalition partner FPÖ suffered significant losses. While a pre-election reunion had been anticipated, the FPÖ’s struggles have now opened the door for other possibilities.

The ÖVP’s win does not come as a surprise. Yet, the projected result of 37 per cent, which is an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared to 2017, must have even left Sebastian Kurz in incredulity. The margin of around 14.6 percentage points to the second place is the largest in a Nationalrat election history, leaving Kurz “humble and almost speechless”, before thanking all the supporters and particularly the voters, who had put their faith in him again.

The big winner besides the ÖVP is the Greens, who have reentered parliament with 14 per cent. In 2017, the party failed the 4-per cent hurdle and was therefore not a parliament party. With today’s gain, the previous record result in 2013 (12.4 per cent) appears to have been exceeded. Green’s chair Kogler sent a message into the ÖVP’s direction right away, by emphasizing the party would only participate in a coalition if the “cult members” of the ÖVP agreed to a paradigm shift to more transparency and less Kurz subordination.

Meanwhile, for the SPÖ, the 21.8 per cent result showed a 5 per cent decrease compared to 2017 and thus was shy of the previous historical low of 2013 (26.82 per cent). Nonetheless, both Managing Director Drozda as well as party chair Rendi-Wagner stated that personnel consequences would not be part of the party’s election conclusion.

The evening’s main surprise, however, was the FPÖ’s self-combustion. The Ibiza scandal and a currently investigated misappropriation affair surrounding former party leader Strache resulted in a decrease in votes of almost 10 per cent compared to 2017 and a result of 16 per cent, despite having consistently polled between 20-22 per cent pre-election. After the first projection had been publicized, both Party leader Hofer and former Interior Minister Kickl stated the party would move into the opposition as the results did not provide the necessary votes to counterbalance a now even more potent ÖVP in a coalition.

A sidenote was a significant gain, and the best result in a National Council election for the Neos with 7.8 per cent. Party chair Meinl-Reisinger already accepted that the party’s role would nonetheless likely be one within government participation.

These results leave Kurz with exciting options of a possible coalition. While many signs in the election campaign indicated a renewed coalition between the ÖVP and the FPÖ, the surprising crash has stirred up plans and opened up new possibilities. Thus, a coalition between the ÖVP and the Greens is currently considered a realistic alternative.

Nonetheless, a government with FPÖ participation is not entirely inconceivable at this point, and until further notice, one must see whether Hofer’s flirt with the opposition could turn out to be strategic, as Hofer had repeatedly emphasized his proclivity to govern with the ÖVP again in all of his election campaign appearances.

The status quo leaves nothing but uncertainly for the upcoming week. However, despite the rumours, a government formation with the Greens will be a challenge, with exhibit A being Kogler’s statement. Moreover, it would be a significant change in Kurz’s profile as previous immigration policies, and his vision for Austria would have to be diluted significantly to become acceptable for the Greens. Whether or not this scenario can be an option for Kurz remains to be seen, while answers can be expected in the upcoming days.

L'articolo Sebastian Kurz Wins Austrian Election, But Loses Former Coalition Partner proviene da InsideOver.