German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to have a successor who would carry on with her legacy has been thrown into a spin following the resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

Kramp-Karrenbauer was Supposed To Be Next Up As Germany’s Leader—Now What?

Kramp-Karrenbauer—also known as AKK—was being groomed by Merkel to take over as Chancellor in 2021. In December 2019 Karrenbauer was elected as the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union CDU to replace Merkel at the party’s convention in Hamburg. It was an historic occasion in that it was the first time the CDU was holding an open leadership contest since 1971.

Although the 1,001 delegates knew that the aim was to elect a leader for Germany’s most successful political party to replace Merkel who had been at the helm for 18 years they were also aware that whoever they elected would be a successor to Merkel as Germany’s Chancellor.

Even though Merkel did not endorse Kramp-Karrenbauer openly, there was no doubt that Kramp-Karrenbauer was clearly her favorite, after all Merkel had propelled her to the position of the party’s secretary general in February of that year. According to CDU policy the Chancellor is also the party leader, but Merkel decided to step down early from party position in order to prepare her successor for the Chancellorship.

AKK’s Competition for the Leadership

Kramp-Karrenbauer’s main competitor for the party’s leadership was Friedrich Merz a 63-year-old millionaire corporate lawyer. After a hotly-contested election , Kramp-Karrenbauer emerged the winner with a slim margin over Merz. What was clear from the results was that the party delegates wanted a leader who could carry on with Merkel’s policies. Merz was essentially unelectable because of his stand against Merkel’s centrism and liberal policies.

On the other hand Kramp-Karrenbauer, was a Merkel loyalist to the extent of being called the “mini-Merkel” because she was expected to replicate much of the Chancellor’s style and policy. However in her speech after her elections, she chose to downplay this saying, she would move away from Merkel’s shadow and forge her own path.

“I have a read a lot about what I am and who I am: ‘mini,’ ‘a copy,’ ‘simply more of the same.’ Dear delegates, I stand before you as I am and as life made me and I am proud of that,” she said.

Report: Kramp-Karrenbauer Asked Merkel to Resign in 2019

In May 2019 Bloomberg alleged that Kramp-Karrenbauer was making an attempt to force Merkel to step down as Chancellor claiming that that splitting the party leadership from the Chancellorship was damaging the party. The agency went on to report that Kramp-Karrenbauer had even sent a message to Merkel urging her to resign.

Karrenbauer actions were prompted by the CDU performance in the European elections. Although The CDU and its sister party the Christian Social Union had finished on top their support had fallen to 28.9% compared to stronger results in previous elections.

However, Kramp-Karrenbauer was forced to stop her plan after she failed to gain enough support to force Merkel to resign. Among those who opposed the move—according to Bloomberg—was Wolfgang Schaeuble, the president of Germany’s parliament and a CDU grandee. Schaeube insisted Merkel should stay in office until her term expired in 2021.

The report by Bloomberg was dismissed by Chancellor Merkel as nonsense. She also denied the existence of a rift between her and Kramp-Karrenbauer. For her part, Kramp-Karrenbauer also stated her ongoing loyalty to Merkel, remarking that “Angela Merkel is the Chancellor until 2021. I have to do my work as party leader and that’s what I am concentrating on.”

Kramp-Karrenbauer’s Appointment as Minister of Defense

Whether the report was true or false, the fact is that it resulted in questions being raised about Merkel’s plan to hand over the leadership of CDU to someone who would preserve her legacy. Nevertheless the relation between the two remained steady as Merkel went on to appoint Kramp-Karrebauer as Minister for Defense

In July 2019, as eyes all over the world were fixed on Boris Johnson’s entrance to Downing Street, many European countries focused their attention on the swearing of Kramp-Karrenbauer as Minister of Defense Minister. The key appointment made her one of the most powerful women in Europe in addition to being seen as Merkel’s likely successor.

Kramp-Karrenbauer’s Fall from Grace

Shortly after being sworn in as defense head, however, Kramp-Karrenbauer committed a series of communication and political blunders that made people doubt her abilities as a successor. This all occurred at a time rating had also begun to drop and the Germany economy was struggling.

In October of 2019, Kramp-Karrenbauer made a controversial proposal for the establishment of an internationally-controlled security zone in Syria which was to involve German and European forces. The proposal was heavily criticized at home and abroad since it could easily lead German and European forces to being involved militarily in Syria and escalating the already unstable situation.

Politically as the leader of CDU Kramp-Karrenbauer failed to win back right-wing voters with the party emerging a distant third emerging third behind the AfD in Thuringia. Because of the poor election results and her dwindling popularity, the CDU youth wing called for a membership vote to determine who was to be the next Chancellor after Merkel since they felt Kramp-Karrenbauer was incompetent.

Nonetheless, Kramp-Karrenbauer remained defiant, stating that she would stand by the CDU’s historic principle that the chancellorship and CDU leadership go “hand in hand.” “If that weren’t the case, we would really be feeling the turmoil that we have in the party,” she said.

‘Let’s End it Here, Now and Today’

Because of the growing discontent towards her, Kramp-Karrenbauer threatened to resign in November, 2019 saying, “If you are of the opinion that the Germany I want is not the one you want .. then let’s end it here, now and today.” Nonetheless, Kramp-Karrenbauer ended on a note of hope: “But dear friends, if you want this Germany, if you want to take this path together, then let’s roll up our sleeves here and now and make a start.” Her speech was greatly applauded by party members including her rivals, and for a time it appeared as if she had managed to secure total loyalty.

The Final Straw: Trouble In Thuringia

The biggest blow to Kramp-Karrenbauer’s fortunes came in early February when politicians from the CDU defied their own party and ganged up with Free Democratic party (FDP)and AfD to vote for Thomas Kemmerrich of FDP as Prime Minister of the German province of Thuringia. It was the first time since World War II that a politician had been elected to a senior state position mainly on the support of a far right party.

Merkel called the results a “bad day for democracy” saying “the results must be reversed.” The results also directly prompted Kramp-Karrenbauer to step down. “Any form of rapprochement with AfD weakens the CDU,” she said while announcing her resignation.

As Time stated, “AKK was supposed to be Merkel’s successor who would bring her centrist legacy and vision into the next decade of German politics.” But now that seems not be the case. According to observers one of the favorites for taking over the leadership of CDU is Merkel’s rival, Friedrich Merz. He draws his support from party members who oppose Merkel’s centrism and were unhappy with her open door policy that allowed many immigrants to settle in Germany. Kramp-Karrenbauer’s time in the spotlight—and the chance of smoothly carrying forward Merkel’s legacy—appears to be over.

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Concerns about an economic crisis affecting the eurozone have reignited after it hit a seven-year low on Friday, which will have an impact on the EU. Germany’s economy stagnated while both France and Italy contracted in the last quarter. The chances of a recession increased after the coronavirus dealt an economic blow to the eurozone.

The EU has experienced its weakest economic growth since 2013, with a rate of 0.1 percent. The last time it was this low was when the debt crisis risked a European recession.

Germany’s growth rate failed to meet expectations and was down from an upwardly revised 0.2 percent in the third quarter.

As German Chancellor Angela Merkel nears the end of her chancellorship, this news could not come at a worse time. As Politico’s Matthew Karnitschnig argues, the economy has been key to her longevity. Until now, German output has grown in all but one of her 14 years in office, stuttering only during 2009 when the 2007-09 Recession was at its worst. Growth has been steady, but modest, reaching a 1.6 percent average during her tenure.

Germany’s latest economic results will be felt across the continent. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has repeatedly resisted calls for a financial stimulus from industry leaders. However, what Merkel needs to demonstrate during her last months as Chancellor is leadership. There are many challenges facing her country and if she wants to secure a legacy, she must use what time she has left to address them.

When Gerhard Schröder was Chancellor until 2005, he implemented a series of welfare and labour reforms as part of his ‘Agenda 2010’ vision. By the time the 2008 Recession started, the German economy quickly recovered thanks to German cars and machinery being exported to China. It now has the world’s largest trade surplus. But the reason why there is a lack of an economic vision from the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), Merkel’s party, is because they have been in power for too long. This is why new leadership is needed.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the politician seen as the Chancellor’s successor, announced on Monday that she would step down from the CDU chair. In response, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has said it could quit the governing alliance if Merkel is forced out of office. If the CDU hope to retain power, they should solve their internal battles so that they have a chance of getting re-elected with a new vision for a new decade, especially with the AfD rising in popularity.

One problem Merkel faces is Brexit. With Boris Johnson insisting that a trade deal must be sorted by December, Merkel must urge her European counterparts to demonstrate some flexibility in providing Britain with a deal that benefits both sides. A no-deal Brexit would damage German automotive companies like BMW, which produces 60 percent of its Mini vehicles at the company’s Cowley plant in Oxford.

The Chancellor has been trying to resolve trade tensions between the EU and the US since last year, and this is damaging Germany’s economy in the long-term. Last month, US President Donald Trump and the EU promised to continue with negotiations to secure a trade deal between both sides. Germany’s industrial output has dropped by 1.5 percent since June and is now down 5.2 percent year-on-year, with Trump’s tariffs being identified as a central reason for that. Ending this crisis will be a positive outcome for Merkel and for Europe.

Dealing with these problems is the only way Merkel can secure a positive economic legacy during her final days in office. It remains to be seen in the coming months whether she still has the political will to solve them.

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Recent headlines: “German Conservatives’ Faustian pact with the far-right” (Spiegel International), “Germany shaken as far-right helps elect regional leader” (The Independent) and “Turmoil that Echoes Nazi Germany” (New York Times). This is how elements of the international press greeted the news that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), elected Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) as Prime Minister of the Free State of Thuringia on February 5.

Consternation Over Thuringia Election Result

In Germany the vote triggered apoplexy in many circles. Neues Deutschland attacked the “Pact with the Fascist AfD” as protestors took to the streets in Berlin, Leipzig, Frankfurt and many other German cities. The German weekly newspaper the Junge Freiheit reported that the FDP has submitted over 100 complaints to the police since the start of the political crisis and that Kemmerich and his family have been placed under police protection.

Well, the experiment was not to last. At the behest of Merkel, the Thuringian CDU dropped their support for Kemmerich who resigned a mere 25 hours later.

Who is Mephistopheles in Thuringia?

In the “Faustian Pact” the media describes, Mephistopheles is of course the national political pariah AfD, and its controversial local leader Björn Höcke in particular. In the Bundestag on February 11, Merkel accused the AfD of having a clear agenda: to undermine and destroy democracy. Merkel’s decision to torpedo the government in Erfurt appears to have been driven by pressure from her SPD Grand Coalition partners to quit the government but that is not a full explanation. The CDU has increasingly drifted leftwards under Merkel and in one particularly notorious and emblematic episode at a conference in 2015 the chancellor grabbed a German flag from a colleague and, disgusted, cast it away. It is not only the AfD that is in the firing line. In recent days CDU politicians have outrageously described a conservative group in the party called the Werte-Union (Values Union) as a “cancerous tumor”. It would seem to be CDU politicians rather than the AfD that is employing Nazi-style rhetoric. Such is the state of the CDU under Angela Merkel.

Echoes of the 1932 Coup in Prussia

The astonishing chain of events in Thuringia over the last few days was not a fascist coup attempt by the AfD. Rather, the defenestration of Kemmerich calls to mind the notorious Preußenschlag (Coup in Prussia) of July, 1932 when Chancellor Franz von Papen took over Germany’s largest state on the basis of an emergency decree issued by President Paul von Hindenburg. Von Papen’s move had been prompted by the fact that the center-left coalition that had ruled Prussia since 1918 had lost its majority in the state parliament in April, 1932. Under the Prussian constitution, a government could be removed from office only if there was a positive majority for a prospective successor. The Communists and National Socialists between them held over half the seats but would not cooperate with each other or with other parties. The coalition remained in office until the controversial step by the Reich government. It is to be noted, however, that in contrast to the Prussian Prime Minister Otto Braun in 1932, Kemmerich actually did have a majority behind him in the Erfurt state parliament.

Criminal complaints issued against Merkel

According to Junge Freiheit, the AfD has submitted a criminal complaint under section 106 of the German Criminal Code against one Merkel for coercion of a member of a constitutional organ. The chancellor had commented during a trip to South Africa that the election of Kemmerich had been “unforgivable” and “must be reversed”. Kemmerich announced his resignation the following day. The party has also decided to submit a legal warning with a cease and desist declaration to the chancellor in relation to abuse of office.

The newspaper further reports that Björn Höcke is also planning to submit a criminal complaint against the chancellor. Höcke made reference to a report in the Welt according to which Merkel threatened that unless Kemmerich resigned immediately the two coalition governments with the FDP in Schleswig-Holstein and North-Rhine Westphalia would be terminated. Höcke commented that Merkel is no longer Chair of the CDU and had made the comments in her capacity as chancellor. “That is nothing less than a Putsch against a constitutional organ of the state of Thuringia”, he added.

Merkel has Undermined German Democracy

Former SPD leader Gabriel has commented that Merkel has “saved Germany’s honour”. In fact, Merkel has undermined the independence of a Federal State, weakened Parliamentary government and violated the right to freedom of conscience of Thuringia’s Parliamentarians. Germany is now—in effect—dominated by a cartel of far-left and center-left parties. The unquestioning pro-Merkel line taken by vast swathes of the media is particularly unsettling; a phenomenon also observed during the migrant crisis of 2015 and 2016. As Roger Köppel of Weltwoche has noted, Germany has become a “gelenkte Demokratie” (a guided or managed democracy).

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel has presided over her country’s politics for almost fifteen years after winning the 2005 election. Her chancellorship has been dominated by the 2008 financial crisis, the eurozone crisis, Trump’s tariffs and Brexit. Often hailed as the de facto leader of Europe and the world’s most powerful woman, voters portrayed her as a source of stability and prosperity.

But her authority was severely damaged following Europe’s 2015 migrant crisis and the subsequent arrival of one million migrants. Her decision left Germany deeply polarised and triggered the rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Her party, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), has suffered in the polls since. Merkel declared that ‘things can’t go on the way they are’ following disastrous regional election results last year in Hesse and Bavaria for the CDU and its Bavarian-only sister party. The Chancellor stated that she would not seek a fourth election and that she will resign her position in 2021.

Her decision to leave had no impact on the CDU’s performance in this year’s European elections. In Saxony and Brandenburg, the AfD beat Merkel’s party into second place and gained an 11 per cent vote share throughout Germany. This was only 2 per cent less than their vote share during the 2017 federal elections.

Throughout most of those international crises listed above, Merkel became renowned for her pragmatism and decisiveness. But the migrant crisis will tarnish her legacy. Her chancellorship will be remembered as the moment the far-right re-emerged in Germany, thereby shattering the post-war consensus that has defined German politics since 1945.

The recent Thuringia election proves how difficult governing Germany will become in the future. During the 2019 European elections, the AfD came second place to the CDU. But in this month’s state election there, they more than doubled their support and won 23.5 per cent of the vote. This is up from 10.6 per cent in 2014. However, the AfD were still defeated by the Left Party on Sunday.

Even though the populists’ support continues to grow, none of Germany’s mainstream parties intend to govern alongside them. Thuringia’s election has only strengthened the power base of Björn Höcke, the AfD’s leader in the state. He is renowned for questioning Germany’s role in the Holocaust. Following his electoral success, he said: “The people of Thuringia have voted for a Turnaround 2.0.”

Thuringia may only be a small state in Germany, but the far-right’s success here is significant due to Mr. Höcke’s controversial language. The AfD have now made governing the state difficult as the traditional parties refuse to form a coalition with them. The only way they can govern is by forming a stable majority consisting of the Left and conservatives, although this has been ruled out by the CDU.

Merkel was no doubt relieved when the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) retained power in Saxony and Brandenburg respectively following elections in those two states last September, but the AfD made substantial gains. They gained a 27.8 per cent vote share in Saxony and 23.5 per cent of the vote in Brandenburg. Andreas Kalbitz, the party’s leader in Brandenburg, said the results showed “the AfD is here to stay.”

The rise of radical politics has had an impact on the SDP too. They must decide whether remaining in coalition with the CDU is a worthwhile position as the Greens, AfD and other parties tear apart their vote share. They may even shift further to the left themselves to prevent populist parties from tarnishing their electoral performances.

The Chancellor still has time to transform her party’s position and she has until 2021 to improve the CDU’s fortunes. The problem is that German politics has become so polarised because of the 2015 migrant crisis. Merkel’s legacy will be that Europe’s largest economy has become increasingly difficult to govern.

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