The race to succeed German Chancellor Angela Merkel is coming to an end as Armin Laschet has been elected leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Merkel’s party.

During the party’s virtual conference, the premier of North-Rhine Westphalia state triumphed over his two rivals.

For now, it is more than likely that he will succeed Merkel when she retires as Germany’s Chancellor in September, after serving 16 years in office.

Laschet has some big boots to fill. Having served as Germany’s Chancellor since 2005, Merkel has helped shape the German political landscape and Germany’s role in the world. The scale of the challenges that she has faced in office have been substantial. These include the 2008 recession, the 2012 eurozone crisis, the 2015 Greek bailout crisis, Brexit, and the coronavirus.

Big Challenges Ahead for Laschet

Merkel has served four terms in office and the key to her success has been positioning herself as a centrist politician. It is rather telling that she influenced the outcome of the CDU’s virtual conference last weekend, as she provided the North-Rhine Westphalia premier with her tacit backing, which proves that she wants her centrist discourse to continue.

As the new leader of the CDU, Laschet has many problems that he must address immediately. Firstly, it would be in his best interest to ensure that there is stability within the cabinet. Leading conservative and former investment banker Friedrich Merz was the favorite to succeed Merkel, and despite his defeat, he has requested the position of economics minister. Yet a spokesman for the German Chancellor confirmed that there were no plans to replace the current Economic Minister, Peter Altmaier, or to reshuffle the cabinet. But Merz still retains considerable influence over his large band of supporters within the CDU, and it will be impossible not to include him in a new lineup without upsetting party unity.

Maintaining Coalition Unity Could Cause Laschet’s Political Death

Beyond the CDU’s internal unity lies the challenge of maintaining unity within Germany’s coalition government. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who resigned as Merkel’s successor last year, also promised to preserve Germany’s grand coalition with the Social Democrats, but despite her best intentions, she failed to do so. Perhaps Laschet could deliver a breath of fresh air to the coalition government.

But just because Laschet has succeeded the German Chancellor as party leader does not mean that his path to succeed Merkel in that role is guaranteed. Upcoming regional elections in the states of Rheinland-Pfalz and Baden-Württemberg will become Laschet’s first test of popularity since he became CDU leader, and they will determine whether he is capable of then becoming the next German chancellor. If he fails, it is almost guaranteed that Jens Spahn, the Health Minister, and Markus Söder, the state leader of Bavaria and head of the Christian Social Union, the CDU’s sister party, will attempt to throw him out of his current position.

Who Will Be Germany’s Next Chancellor?

Although the coronavirus has damaged Alternative for Deutschland’s (AfD) support in the opinion polls to around 9 percent in the latest survey, they still remain the largest opposition party with 89 seats. The AfD’s fortunes could go two ways and anything could change in Germany’s political landscape this year. They could attract support from voters disillusioned with the economic damage COVID-19 has caused so far. Equally, the party is divided as its co-leader, Jörg Meuthen, attacked the right-wing of the party during the AfD’s convention last November due to its use of the term “corona dictatorship.” Party divisions could make the AfD unattractive in many voters’ eyes and the CDU/CSU could win over a lot of their voters.

September is fast approaching and the way Laschet deals with the obstacles laid before him will determine whether he could become the next German Chancellor by then. But for now, nothing is certain.

L'articolo What are the Challenges Awaiting Merkel’s Successor Armin Laschet? proviene da InsideOver.

Considering how her reputation was tarnished by the 2015 refugee crisis, the coronavirus has provided German Chancellor Angela Merkel with an opportunity to secure a positive legacy during her final days in power. 2021 will mark her last year as Europe’s most powerful woman having presided over Germany’s chancellorship for over 15 years already.

Euronews reports on a poll that the news organization conducted which found that Merkel’s handling of COVID-19 made her popular with seven out of ten Germans that were polled at the time. This is due to the low number of COVID-19-related deaths that Germany has had. Both the French and the Italians who were polled at the same time also had a positive view of her when asked to rate their own respective leaders’ performance during the coronavirus crisis.

Will Markus Soeder Succeed Merkel?

However, the timing of Merkel’s popularity boost is poor and it has not stopped many from anticipating who her successor could be. The German Chancellor’s recent visit to Bavaria has sparked speculation in the German press that the state’s Prime Minister Markus Soeder could become Merkel’s successor.

Nonetheless, she has publicly refused to endorse the Bavarian Premier as her successor. The German Chancellor commented that Soeder is a good Prime Minister, but she refused to comment further. Merkel’s comments have not prevented Bild, Germany’s largest newspaper, from referring to the Bavarian Prime Minister as “the crown prince.”

It is understandable why many in the German media view him as Merkel’s natural successor. Soeder managed to establish himself as the coronavirus started to cripple Germany. He was among the first of Germany’s 16 state premiers to impose lockdowns and introduce mass testing programs.

Soeder is an Established Figure

By inviting the German Chancellor to Herrenchiemsee, a castle on an island in a lake where Germany’s constitution was drafted in 1948, this could be portrayed as a purely calculated move for the Bavarian politician to present himself as a national leader, as opposed to a regional one.

Soeder’s consistent national television appearances contrasts with those of Armin Laschet, the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, who is also considered to be the other front-runner for the conservative nomination. According to Reuters, she has had a tougher time mastering the pandemic, with a number of outbreaks occurring at a slaughterhouse in Guetersloh, which infected thousands of workers.

Until Merkel clarifies who her successor is, these reports are just rumors for now. It was widely anticipated that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who succeeded Merkel as the Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) party leader, would also become Chancellor as soon as Merkel retires. Regardless, she resigned earlier this year and said that she would not run for Chancellor in the 2021 federal election.

Merkel’s Reputation is in Tatters

As Merkel proceeds with persuading her European counterparts to support a €750-billion package to rescue the EU’s economy from the economic fallout caused by the coronavirus, these rumors about her successor seek to undermine her leadership during a critical time for the rest of the EU. With the Netherlands stating that a deal is unlikely over the weekend, this could have devastating consequences for her chancellorship and speed up the process of succession.

Even if Merkel succeeds in negotiating an EU-wide rescue package over the weekend, her longer-term legacy in Europe is in tatters. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte met Merkel last week and pushed for EU-wide financial reform, but as Euractiv’s Kenneth T. Stiller argues, she has had a considerable period of time to implement EU reforms that could have deepened European solidarity. For example, in 2011-12 she could have urged her counterparts to support steps toward a fiscal union to prevent the eurozone from exploding back then like it is now.

Although Merkel’s popularity is riding high overall, it could be short-lived depending on the outcome of this weekend’s European Council meeting. Either way, many in the German media are concentrating on the future. Although that damages the CDU in the short-term, it is important to highlight that Merkel’s successor has some substantial challenges ahead in preserving European solidarity. It is no wonder many journalists are speculating who could become the next German Chancellor in 2021.

L'articolo Rumors of Merkel’s Successor are Undermining Her Leadership proviene da InsideOver.

As in many European countries, the political in Germany appears to be faltering. In East Germany, voters are drifting to the fringes, while in the West it’s doing a bit better – though cracks are starting to appear. The election last weekend in Hamburg is one such crack.

Merkel’s Party Just Had a Mini-Doomsday

Merkel’s party, the centre-right CDU, had its worst showing in Hamburg in the last 70 years. The party got just 11.2% of the vote – a tremendous loss in one of the country’s largest states.

During a particularly turbulent time in German politics, this comes as part of a wider trend. A few weeks ago, the Thüringen branch of the party defied the national CDU (and post-war convention) by combining votes with the far-right AfD to install a state premier from a weaker third party, the right-leaning FDU.

The tactic outraged both the public and politicians, forcing the premier’s resignation just a day later. Party leader and possible Merkel successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer then announced her resignation as well. This meant that the CDU had no national party leader to lean on going into the election, and the national party must now appear somewhat rudderless to voters.

A More Robust Left-wing

In Hamburg, those voters turned elsewhere. The SPD, the social-democratic party of Germany, was able to shore up its support to 39%. While it’s good news for the party, it is not that surprising: the SPD has historically been the largest in the state.

It was the Greens who took the most voters away from the CDU. Running on a leftist platform, which aims to make Hamburg the “climate capital of Germany” and carbon neutral by 2035, it surged into second place, with 24.2% of the vote. That’s double its vote share from the last regional election in 2015.

The result of this election is likely to be another coalition between the SPD and the Greens, with a bit more leverage for the latter. This shouldn’t be much a strain for either of them: the platforms of both parties are much more similar in Hamburg than in other federal states.

What About the AfD?

The AfD was never likely to be a major player in the metropolitan state, but it’s worth also nothing how they did in the election. The far-right party held onto its parliamentary seats in Hamburg only just, garnering 5.3% of the vote (to have seats in the parliament, a party must have more than 5% of the vote).

Although this is a loss, it represents only a small dip in support for the party. Opposition politicians and media had hoped that a greater drop would follow the deadly shooting in Hanau last week, which killed ten. Police from the town have said that the shooter was motivated by xenophobic political material, and much ink has been spilled in the German media on the link between the AfD and the rise of violent German nativists.

Nevertheless, members of the SPD were jubilant because of the result, having feared a rightwing surge after Thüringen. There were shouts of: “Nazis out, Nazis out!” from the headquarters in Hamburg.

What Happens Next?

Many Germans were watching this election closely. It is the only regular state-level election to take place this year. What happens in Hamburg, as one of the largest states in the country, will influence what happens at the national level.

The results from Hamburg brought about jubilation for the left, from whom state elections in the last few years have been a mix of wins and losses. The astonishing collapse of the center, however, should be cause for worry for those who mostly look for stability. While it is not surprising for voters in less economically sound parts of the country to drift to the extremes — like the previously communist east — it is alarming that in a wealthy, prosperous region like Hamburg the center is also struggling.

It’s for that reason that the SPD should celebrate modestly. They have been given a mandate by their voters to expand social-democratic policies and to work toward tacking the climate crisis. But, without a center to fall back on, they are in a precarious position. Going forward, if the SPD and Greens can’t deliver on their promises, they won’t be losing voters to the center — but to the right.

L'articolo Germany’s Center Collapses in Hamburg proviene da InsideOver.

With the announced resignation of CDU chair Kramp-Karrenbauer, the party will have to fill not one but two voids in the upcoming months. Firstly, a successor for Kramp-Karrenbauer needs to be found. The individual in question, however, will most likely also become the party’s next chancellor candidate for the general election in 2021, making the choice doubly important.

Who is Being Suggested to Replace Kramp-Karrenbauer?

Names have been circulating even before Kramp-Karrenbauer’s decision to leave her post. Old acquaintances, each with an individual approach towards politics have been suggested. Regardless of the party’s next chair, however, the CDU will need to return to its conservative origins in order to not to be the second people’s party in Germany that is falling apart. Neither of these subsequent candidates has yet commented on the rumors, but the positioning games are expected to begin next week, as Kramp-Karrenbauer has announced talks with “potential successors.”

First Potential Candidate: Markus Söder

There is Markus Söder, for one. Bavaria’s Minister-President has held the office since 2018. He has been sitting for the CSU in the Bavarian state parliament since 1994 (the CSU is the CDU’s sister party in the state of Bavaria and has traditionally been much more conservative than the CDU). Recently, Söder changed attitudes in the areas of environmental protection and sea rescue have raised questions. In addition, what Söder had previously called “asylum tourism” in 2018 he no longer wants to be associated with today—instead, he advocates for a cooperative European solution in the area of ​​sea rescue in the Mediterranean.This change is a testimony to Söder being an opportunist rather than having any consistent ideology or political beliefs.

Nevertheless, it remains doubtful that Söder will receive the necessary support within the party. In the history of the republic, only two CSU men (Stoiber and Strauß) ran for chancellor, and both had already been exceptional politicians at the time. While Söder has been a commendable Minister-President for Bavaria, it may be too early for him to step onto the national stage.

Second Potential Candidate: Armin Laschet

Then there is Armin Laschet, who has reportedly long sought to take the reins. What speaks in favor of North Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President, is that he heads the CDU’s state party with the most members, and thus he has vast support guaranteed. Laschet has, moreover, been a member of the CDU’s federal executive board since 2008. Since 2012, he has also been one of five deputy CDU federal leaders, which makes him someone with a high-profile within the party. One of Laschet’s strongest qualities has been his proclivity to mediate and overcome political gridlock via compromise, which could be an interesting strategy after the Merkel years—during which her opinion was usually delivered ex-cathedra. However, Laschet is also seen as a supporter of the Grand Coalition, which is an opinion that many members do not share.

Third Potential Candidate: Jens Spahn

Another possible candidate is Health Minister Jens Spahn. Spahn had already run for the party’s chair in 2018 but lagged behind Kramp-Karrenbauer and Friedrich Merz. Spahn has had recent political successes in his field and is pushing for digitalization in the health sector. Most recently, he failed with the push for a massive reform in the area of ​​organ donation, however. Spahn is seen as a conservative, but his profile seems pale in comparison to the other candidates.

Most Likely Candidate: Friedrich Merz

The favorite to replace Kramp-Karrenbauer, however, remains Friedrich Merz. Merz led the Union’s parliamentary group in the opposition from 2000 to 2002. After internal party quarrels with Angela Merkel, he left federal politics in 2009. In 2018, when Merkel announced she would no longer run as Chancellor, Merz returned to the political stage and joined Spahn and Kramp-Karrenbauer in the race for the party’s chair.

Despite the defeat, Merz has since repositioned himself politically, most likely because he was cognizant about Kramp-Karrenbauer’s weaknesses and eventual failure. Merz is another conservative party member—in the traditional sense—and has the support of a group within the CDU that calls itself “Werte Union,” ​​intending to correct the leftward course that occurred under Merkel.

Already during a 2018 speech, Merz said that he could “halve” the AfD’s voters, which suggests that he would bring the CDU back to its traditional values. Merz, a businessman, is also seen as an opponent of the Grand Coalition. Instead, he favors the traditional CDU/FDP coalition. In addition, Merz is also much more popular than its competitors, especially in eastern Germany.

The main criticism against Merz? His success. In 2018 he was criticized for being a millionaire and thus allegedly not being able to understand “the little man”—an old rhetorical trick of the socialist forces in Germany to demonize success. Whether the success stigma will be sufficient this time is doubtful, and if Merz plays his cards right he will not only be the person that revitalizes the CDU’s polls but also has the chance to make the CDU what it used to be and provide Germany with a genuine conservative force once again.

L'articolo Who Will Become the CDU’s Next Chair and Chancellor Candidate for 2021? proviene da InsideOver.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will step down as the CDU’s chair and a potential candidate for the chancellorship in 2021. Kramp-Karrenbauer first communicated her decision to the CDU’s presidium on Monday before addressing the public. Nonetheless, she will continue to work and organize the transition towards the party’s next chancellor candidate and hand over the party chair in the summer.

Chancellor Angela Merkel will keep Kramp-Karrenbauer in her cabinet. At the CDU presidium’s meeting on Monday morning, the chancellor expressly spoke out for Kramp-Karrenbauer to remain the Defense Minister, before thanking her for her service as the party’s chair.

Criticism Of Kramp-Karrenbauer Over Thuringia Election

Kramp-Karrenbauer was sharply criticized for managing the crisis after the recent controversial Minister-President election in Thuringia. FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich was elected Prime Minister last Wednesday in the state parliament in Erfurt—and also by the CDU and the AfD, whose parliamentary group is led by the party’s extreme right leader Björn Höcke. Kemmerich was subsequently massively criticized for accepting the election’s results, which he would not have won without the AfD’s votes. He resigned the following day. In the aftermath, Kramp-Karrenbauer stated the Thuringia CDU had acted against the federal party’s directive, thus insinuating subordination and making herself look like a chair without power.

What Does Kramp-Karrenbauer’s Departure Mean For The AfD?

After the announced withdrawal of Kramp-Karrenbauer, the AfD sees opportunities for the two parties to come closer. AfD parliamentary group leader Alexander Gauland said on Monday: “It is completely nonsensical and unrealistic not to want to work with the AfD in the long run.” AfD chair Jörg Meuthen and deputy chair Beatrix von Storch demanded that Chancellor Merkel also resigns.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has been the federal chairman of the CDU since December 2018. Alongside herself, the candidate for chancellor of the Union was repeatedly in discussion with the North Rhine-Westphalian Minister-President Armin Laschet, ex-Union faction leader Friedrich Merz, CSU chair Markus Söder and Health Minister Jens Spahn. So far, none of them has declared the desire to take over the leadership in the summer and likely become the party’s next chancellor candidate. Minister-President and CDU Vice Armin Laschet, who has long been considered a possible candidate for the chancellorship and who leads the largest CDU state association, was not present during the meeting. Friedrich Merz recently gave up his position as Chairman of the Supervisory Board at Blackrock in order to have more time for political work and is favored by an influential, conservative wing within the CDU (“Werte Union”). One can assume that particularly Laschet and Merz are going to position themselves in the next few days.

Kramp-Karrenbauer Known For Weak Leadership

Kramp-Karrenbauer has long been accused of weak leadership within the party. At the Leipzig party conference in November, she openly offered a vote against her own position, to bring about the unity of the party. Thereupon she received long applause. The Thuringian situation then gave all of her internal party-political opponents an excuse to increase the pressure to which she ultimately succumbed.

Whoever becomes Kramp-Karrenbauer’s successor will have to address the party’s future position on the AfD and Die Linke, which should not be easy. There are members within the CDU who envision cooperating with parts of the AfD, while others categorically reject it. However, the strengthening of Germany’s Greens raises the question of whether or nor the CDU will still be able to govern in the future without a right-wing alliance with the AfD.

One result is already inevitable: The AfD is the big winner as it demonstrated that it has the power to cause a significant crisis while making its party look like the victim of anti-democrats in the process and potentially realigning the CDU’s future course.

L'articolo Germany’s CDU Chair Kramp-Karrenbauer Resigns proviene da InsideOver.

The leaders of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SDP), Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, were awarded a mandate by their party faithful at a recent party conference to discuss with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Christian Democratic Party (CDU) about continuing in government. They also stated what their relatively modest policy demands are.

The SDP is feeling the pressure of remaining in a coalition government with the CDU. A Forsa poll put them on 11 per cent, hitting a low last witnessed in June after previous leader Andrea Nahles quit following their disastrous performance in the European elections. Meanwhile, Merkel’s conservatives gained a percentage point, which left them with a 28 per cent score.

Plummeting poll numbers is certainly one valid reason as to why the SDP feel justified in selecting new leaders. Bloomberg discovered that they are trailing behind the Greens, whose support remained steady at 21.5 per cent. For the last 10 to 14 years, Germany’s traditional centre-left party has been a junior coalition partner to the CDU, targeting the centre-ground and helping Merkel retain office. Walter-Borjans and Esken are both staunch critics of the coalition and they might be able to help their party claw back support from their rivals. They said that under the current Chancellor, Germany is stuck in a ‘neo-liberal wilderness.’

The last time that the SDP won a decent vote share was in the 2002 federal elections when former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder won 38.5 per cent of the vote. Following his removal from office when his party won 34.2 per cent of the vote in the 2005 federal election, their popularity has slowly declined. With Merkel due to retire in 2021, many on the centre-left may be sensing an opportunity to re-establish themselves as a radical alternative.

The SDP leaders want their coalition partners to invest more in infrastructure, introduce tougher climate protection measures and increase the minimum wage. But the CDU have said they will not renegotiate the 2018 coalition deal, which means their centre-left partners risk triggering a year-and-a-half of government infighting before the next federal election. They could also destroy their coalition with Merkel. But both coalition partners are taking huge gambles if they start shifting from the centre-ground.

 As Luuk Molthof wrote for the London School of Economics, the CDU are also finding it hard to resist the temptation of moving further to the right in the face of shrinking support.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the current Chair of the CDU, is keen to please the conservative faction in her party, who are blaming the Chancellor’s open-door refugee policy for poor performances in recent regional elections. This is despite the fact that candidates from both the CDU and the Christian Social Union, the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, criticised the coalition’s refugee policy.

But they did not lose support to the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) Party; instead the Greens won votes from both the CDU and the SDP. This is why both parties would be making a huge mistake in shifting their policy positions. The Greens have managed to reinvent themselves as a centrist party and that is why they are appealing to both conservative and social democratic voters.

Despite pressure from her own party to quit, 59 per cent of Germans want Merkel to remain in office until the next federal election, which proves there is an appetite for centrist politics in Germany.

Shifting further to the left may give the SDP a new identity, but when they are facing stiff competition from both the CDU and the Greens, they risk being pushed out of the centre-ground by becoming more radical. Either way, they are at risk of losing votes. But the CDU would also be making a substantial electoral error if they abandon the centre-ground at a time when their support remains high, despite improving poll positions from both the Greens and the AfD.

L'articolo Should the CDU and the SDP Shift From the Centre-Ground? proviene da InsideOver.