It looks like there is no rest for China’s Xi Jinping as a wave of rallies recently occurred in Inner Mongolia. Protests arose after Beijing made it compulsory to use Mandarin Chinese in local schools, fueling ethnic Mongol communities’ rage. Mongol communities’ discomfort exploded during US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent tour in Asia.

Although China is familiar with such resistance, the new protests come in the wake of upheaval and pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, as well as the growing condemnation of China’s treatment of the Uyghurs, all in the bewildering context of a devastating pandemic.

The New Mandarin-Focused Educational Policy

Inner Mongolia was embedded in the Republic of China in 1911 and has officially been an Autonomous Region since 1947. Its demographics changed markedly in the 18th century with the migration of the Han Chinese ethnic group into its territory, becoming a Chinese colony in all respects until its annexation to China.

The ethnic communities of all five Autonomous Regions spoke a different language than Chinese, including Inner Mongolia. Now, since Beijing’s September 1 order, pupils starting in first grade must learn history, literature and politics in Mandarin.

Although Beijing always professed tolerance towards its 56 ethnic groups, it has dawned on the international community since 2014 with the Uyghurs’ situation in the spotlight and long before with Tibet, that flattening linguistic, cultural and religious differences at all costs is a top priority for the Central Government to implement its One China Model. However, the outraged public reaction in Inner Mongolia in Tongliao city is partly due to the dread that the new school law conceals the forewarning of a sly political architecture of cultural assimilation.

Mongols believed Pompeo’s trip in Asia would have been somehow beneficial for them and took to the streets as a proven political strategy, just as Hong Kong residents appealed to the US to get the international attention and find support from China’s rivals. Unsurprisingly, Pompeo did not miss out on the chance to lambaste the China Communist Party during a meeting in Tokyo, however he showed no specific interest in the Inner Mongolia issue.

Could Inner Mongolia be the Next Xinjiang?

Initially, the Chinese Government presented the new education policy as an opportunity for children to study in a bilingual system of Mongolian and Mandarin, but similar laws were also introduced in Xinjiang in 2017. According to the Uyghur Human Rights Project, in 2016 Beijing carried out a brutal campaign of mosque demolition called the ‘Mosque Rectification Program’ tearing down almost 5,000 mosques in the Xinjiang. By 2016 Kashgar witnessed the destruction of the 70% of its mosques due to “safety reasons,” as the Chinese Government explained.

The similarities between Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia also include a history of Han migration into the Uyghur region, as part of a policy supported by Beijing. As a direct consequence of the migratory flow, a huge salary gap between both ethnic groups was recorded, with the Uyghurs workers earning an average of 52% less than Han workers. The language obstacle for Beijing’s political project also occurred in Xinjiang, when in 2002 the Uyghur language was substituted with Mandarin Chinese in Universities, and a bilingual system was introduced in primary, middle and high schools.

Beijing’s aim of modernizing China’s system and state governance goes through the empowerment of local government and economic development of the poorest regions. Shifting from an economic-led government started with Deng Xiaoping’s reforms to a decentralized Western model is indeed the path towards implementation of regional power. In light of this, Beijing is convinced that the autonomous areas must be assimilated into the ruling cultural system and perceives any ethnic, linguistic or cultural differences as a threat to the achievement of modernization and centralized control.

A Brutal Crackdown on Demonstrators

It is against this background that demonstrations in Inner Mongolia must be interpreted: part of a coercive narrative whose effects have already been seen in Xinjiang’s forced labor camps or so-called reeducation camps.

By the end of August 2020, the Chinese Communist Party made clear to local officials its intention to exacerbate the language measures, these last becoming public after a series of meetings between authorities and teachers. The shutdown of Mongolian social media company Bainu further increased people’s anger, which they channeled into the recent rallies.

Many of the activists were beaten and arrested, while students boycotted changes by walking out of schools. Police have arrested the human rights lawyer Hu Baolong on charges of leaking state secret overseas. Baolong refused to send his child to school as a sign of protest against the new educational policy.

By the first weeks of September 2020, nine people had died as a result of the protests, and thousands more have been arrested in Inner Mongolia, according to the Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center. The Chinese Authorities reacted by deploying SWAT teams and carrying out arbitrary arrest and extrajudicial detention with a massive police army.

The Justice Bureau and the Educational Bureau of Inner Mongolia issued a warning, setting out the educational training for all those refusing to send their children to school. Many teachers and officials resigned due to the enormous pressure they have been subjected to by the Chinese government. For Mongols, language is a matter of dignity and even more of identity, directly connected to their past and to the Emperor Genghis Khan, who is still an endless source of pride.

The Winds of Change… in China?

Although the pandemic outbreak cushioned Hong Kong’s demonstrations and their long-term impact, Hong Kon residents’ dedication encouraged other forms of defiance such as that in Inner Mongolia. The extended rallies put a strain on China, which could not let another Tiananmen Square Incident happen due to the increased international interest in its domestic affairs.

However, the spread of COVID-19 offered Beijing an escape hatch from the Hong Kong dilemma, where they were able to introduce a special act to forbid any form of public gatherings. Yet the sparkle of rebellion traveled across the country to the banks of the Xiliaio River. It might not seem a huge milestone, but the recent events in Inner Mongolia represent a glimmer of hope in a country where the one-party dictatorship and propaganda have crushed out almost all democratic dissent.

L'articolo Protests Erupt in Inner Mongolia in Wake of Hong Kong Demonstrations proviene da InsideOver.

The United States believes Beijing has too much influence in Hong Kong and has threatened to cease recognition of the special administrative zone’s autonomous status, with potentially far-reaching consequences.

US: Hong Kong No Longer Has a ‘High Degree of Autonomy’

The US decided on Wednesday that Hong Kong no longer had a “high degree of autonomy.” The statement came in response to new security laws for Hong Kong that China announced last week and approved this Thursday at the end of its National People’s Congress. It arguably marks the end of individual rights for the Chinese special administrative region.

China’s Premier Li Keqiang defended China’s decision on Thursday. The law served the “constant implementation” of the “one country, two systems” principle and ensured “long-term stability and prosperity” in Hong Kong.

The 1992 US-Hong Kong Act allowed Washington to treat Hong Kong as fully autonomous in trade and economic matters even after Britain returned it to China in 1997. Hong Kong is currently exempt from US punitive tariffs on China and, unlike China, still allowed to import certain sensitive technologies.

However, these exceptions are subject to the condition that Hong Kong can act autonomously from China. It seems apparent that Washington no longer considers Hong Kong autonomous. Accordingly, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that no reasonable person could claim that Hong Kong had maintained a high degree of autonomy vis-à-vis China given the facts.

Range of Options for Cancelling Hong Kong’s Special Status

Withdrawing autonomy status would provide the United States with various options. One of these are sanctions against Chinese officials, such as visa restrictions or asset freezes in the United States. A much more severe option is to withdraw Hong Kong’s special trading status, which is currently still treated independently of China under commercial law. If the US government denied Hong Kong this special status, Hong Kong would be affected by the same rules that apply to mainland China, which would be a hard blow to the Hong Kong economy. Which option the US will utilize is with President Trump. The latter had already announced that “something would be done” in the next days.

China Says it Will Take ‘Necessary Countermeasures’

The Chinese embassy in Washington, meanwhile, said in a statement on Wednesday that China’s new Hong Kong legislation targets a “very narrow category of actions that pose a serious threat to national security” and “do not affect Hong Kong’s high level of autonomy, rights and freedoms of Hong Kong residents or have the legitimate rights and interests of foreign investors in Hong Kong.” However, the embassy also stated that China was inclined to take “necessary countermeasures” to any US action.

Hong Kong Prime Minister Carrie Lam also defends the national security law, saying that it was “totally unacceptable” for foreign lawmakers to interfere in Hong Kong’s internal affairs. Sanctions would only further complicate the situation in the city, Lam said.

Chinese Media Slams American ‘Troublemakers’

In mainland China, the US’ decision was heavily criticized in the Chinese state media. On Thursday night, state-run news agency Xinhua Washington accused the US of conspiring with the “troublemakers” in Hong Kong. Moreover, Washington politicians were “selectively blind” and only interested in “accusing, attacking and slandering China” while supporting Hong Kong and the powers behind it. The latter was precisely the reason why national security legislation was necessary.

There is no question that the security law passed by the National People’s Congress will significantly increase the rights of the Chinese central government to intervene in Hong Kong and Macau, and thus further exacerbating the tense situation. Even more: undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy has the potential to affect trust in the Hong Kong as an international economic hub noticeably and for years to come, while China runs the risk of further jeopardizing its international credibility.

Hong Kong used to be under British rule from 1841 to 1997, apart from a brief period under Japanese occupation during World War II. Britain eventually agreed to transfer the entire colony to China in 1997 after obtaining guarantees that Hong Kong’s system, its freedoms, and way of life would be preserved for at least five decades.

L'articolo The US and Hong Kong’s Special Status proviene da InsideOver.

The USS Roosevelt nuclear-powered aircraft carrier came out of quarantine to make a stop recently in Vietnam. This is the second time in recent memory that a ship has visited Hanoi and it signals important changes in the region. Most news stories are about China’s aggression, military buildup, harassing of fishing boats, placement of weapon systems on artificial islands and so forth. But the carrier to the region represents the potential drawbacks to such a policy. This negative is that China could be creating its own set of alliances against their powerful nation.

Why Doesn’t China Have More Friends?

This problem was highlighted by a simple question. After a conference in 2017 where Chinese leadership refused to meet with the South Korean leader during his four day visit analysts asked an insightful question:  “[W]hy is it that for such a big country, there is hardly any neighbor that can be described as China’s friend?” China is a growing power and their military dwarfs their neighbors, but those neighbors are beginning to challenge China’s supremacy and they could form a block that surrounds and contains China. The danger comes from being in a situation similar to Germany before World War One, in that a Chinese fear of being surrounded could create an unstable doomsday machine of alliances and counter alliances that plunge the world into global war.

Parallel: Germany Before World War One

Before World War One, Germany constantly worried they would be surrounded. As a result they aggressively pursued their interests with their neighbors around them. But it often backfired. The First and Second Moroccan Crises sparked international outrage and led to a strengthening of the bonds between Britain and France against Germany. The Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 destabilized Eastern Europe and made Russia even more interested in supporting its remaining ally in the region against Germany and Austria Hungary. The end result of German maneuvers to not be trapped was a strengthening of alliances against them and what Henry Kissinger called a doomsday machine that plunged the world into the catastrophic warfare of World War One.

China claims they are addressing their rights and defending their sovereignty. But they are doing so by aggressively disputing land and maritime territories with most of its neighbors, including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. Much like Germany before World War One, these actions end up being counterproductive.

Vietnam Boosting Forces to Counter China

Vietnam is specifically building forces meant to counter Chinese strength and is actively seeking allies that face the same threats from China, including India, Japan, and even the US. The visit of the USS Roosevelt solidifies this trend. With the recent trade war and tariffs between the US and China, as well as the significant disruption of Chinese supply chains during the coronavirus, Vietnam has become a sought after trade partner and welcomes investments from Japan and Australia as well, which leaves China with less leverage than many people think.

But Vietnam also has common cause against China in the South China Sea. By partnering with the US as a “cooperative maritime partner” and receiving equipment like the T-6 trainer aircraft and Scan Eagle Unstaffed Aerial Vehicles, as well as a supply of coastguard vessels. These will help counter balance China’s aggressive use of its coast guard that as recently as last month sunk and detained Vietnamese fisherman new the disputed Parcell Islands. In that dispute Washington firmly sided with Vietnam.

The Future of Vietnam-US Cooperation

Future cooperation will help the strategic calculus favor the US though problems remain. Domestically there is concern that allying with Vietnam will look like the US condones their human rights abuses and is becoming too close to a communist regime. This would significantly upset Vietnamese refugees. Vietnam has a long-standing policy of not allying with one foreign power against a third, hosting any foreign military camps, and refusing to change its nonaligned stance by joining with a superpower.

But the direction so far for Vietnam and almost every Chinese neighbor is one of more cooperation with the US against China. South Korea resisted Chinese pressure and allowed America to deploy Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missiles. These missiles are a key defensive weapon system against China’s preferred strategy that consists of overwhelming amounts of missiles to deny access or destroy American forces. India had a tense ten-week standoff not too long ago in a critical strategic area connecting mainland India to its north eastern states but it was the Chinse that backed down. Japan is looking to move its companies out of China. and seeking new missiles for island defense.

The fear of a string of allied territories surrounding them could temper Chinese rhetoric and lead to more cooperation. But considering Beijing’s heavy handed oppression of Hong Kong protesters such a mellowing of belligerence seems unlikely. If China ends up being as isolated as pre-World War One Germany, they will try to win allies by aggressively pursuing their interests in border disputes, which will end up creating precisely the anti-Chinese block they fear.  Thus, the visit of the USS Roosevelt is incredibly important in signaling the inchoate creation of that block aimed at containing China.

L'articolo USS Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier Visits Vietnam: China Will Notice proviene da InsideOver.

Reportage / Society 25.05.2020

My Brother is an Only Child

China is ageing at the same rate as its economy is growing. Its population growth rate is experiencing a considerable reduction due to the decrease in births, setting the foundations not only for potential demographic and economic crises in the…

Antonio Faccilongo

By 2050, the percentage of people over 60 years of age will rise to 34%, while the percentage of people within the working age range will decrease to 51%. That means only 1.5 workers per pensioner. This type of rapid inversion has potentially disastrous repercussions on the economy and social stability. Since 2016 the Chinese government, in the attempt to find a solution and counter this trend, has modified and eased the one child policy, but figures show that births are still in decline.

This regulation was introduced in 1978 with the aim of preventing excessive population growth. Since 2016 the Beijing government has implemented the «two children» policy, allowing this possibility to couples where one of the two partners is an only child. If during the 1980s and 1990s the low birth rate was determined by the ban on having more than one child, today the causes of this trend are to be found in dynamics of a social nature. Chinese families are free to choose to keep their families small and one of the main reasons for this is the cost of child services, increasing urbanization, the rising number of women working and high costs of education.

The expenses that couple face in building a family are high. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences the average cost of raising a child to the age of 16 in China amounts to 490,000 yuan. This figure is confirmed by Tao Zhang who tells us that their annual cost amounts to roughly 5.000€ year. The great majority of Chinese workers do not earn enough to support a child, let alone two.

In this case also the negative marriage trend has its roots mainly in economic and social issues. Young Chinese have taken a distance from the traditions of previous generations. Their scale of priorities has changed both through choice and due to necessity. For some of them staying single means great career prospects, while marriage no longer represents a necessity as it did for their parents. They get married in large cities, looking for the prospect of a better future and betting all their stakes, or almost, on their career.

Another aspect which should be taken into consideration is the difficulty young Chinese have communicating with the opposite sex and establishing intimate relationships. The change in lifestyle of the young is increasingly characterized by an obsessive, in some cases even maniacal, use of technology and social media. The consequences of their compulsive use are evident: the young are totally unable to engage in social relationships and communicate with others in the real world.

45% of Chinese male adolescents between the ages of 13 and 19 today say they have no interest in love or sex. Living almost exclusively through electronic gadgets can cause a sense of alienation and a detachment which as a consequence is changing social relations and particularly the way youths are engaging with each other. Contact in real life has become mor rare and for this reason harder.

The government of Beijing has so far had a timid approach to try and curb the problem, the measures it has implemented have not had the desired effects. A number of state-supported services have been established in the attempt to meet the need for a sentimental education.

For example, through an app it is possible to “rent” a boyfriend or girlfriend by the hour, not for sex purposes, but to learn how to behave with the other gender doing simple activities like going for a walk holding hands or discovering how one should behave when in a relationship.

L'articolo My Brother is an Only Child proviene da InsideOver.

When hearing the lastest COVID-19 news from China, one is led to believe that the virus has pretty much been defeated and that the Chinese modus operandi is currently to help save the rest of the globe out of the goodness of its heart.

China’s Helping Hand

Indeed, China is not only sending its scientists to Europe these days but, respiratory equipment and masks, while also providing its supposed blueprint for fighting the coronavirus in four languages ​​worldwide. China’s assistance, however, is accompanied by the usual propaganda that aims to make Beijing appear as it has successfully stopped the virus from spreading. This is an interesting and disturbing attempt to conduct a revisionist history for several reasons.

When the new virus first appeared in central China’s Wuhan in mid-November, information about the threat was ignored, evidence was destroyed, doctors were intimidated — or simply disappeared — and laboratories were closed. The Chinese population and the world were kept in the dark.

This was followed by the dramatic witnessing of a total shutdown of Wuhan and the entire province of Hubei two months later. To be more precise, it was a Chinese version of a shutdown, not to be confused with the European nor American version. Overnight, people got literally stuck in their respective locations. Car traffic, subways, trains, buses stopped without any warning. Only one person per family was allowed to leave their own house for shopping while police and neighborhood “committees” checked in front of the house entrances for anyone disobeying. China also utilized its surveillance technology. Anyone who could not show a green QR code at checkpoints on their smartphone was not allowed to pass.

China’s Dubious Claims to Have Beaten COVID-19

Now, China has claimed that the number of infections was no longer increasing. And yet, other nations have shown that China and its particular way of dealing with the virus are not the only way. This is proven by South Korea and Taiwan, who are fighting the virus highly effectively without lockdowns. Both countries were once dictatorships, today they are living democracies and Japan, in particular, seems to have found efficient ways to fight the virus without fabricating figures, or utilizing the Stasi-esque-methods China has been applying.

Nevertheless, Europe should be pleased that China is now offering its support and accept it with gratitude. However, it should not be naive. When Xi Jinping offers Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte his support, he is channeling his inner Machiavelli. Jinping’s agenda is not global health and freedom but to further promote Chinese influence in Europe. He is rightfully applying the old saying “a crisis is a terrible thing to waste.”

All Praise Great Leader Xi?

That is true for China right now, especially in Europe, and when the European Union has been a complete no show, whether in terms of equipment or economic measures for the time after the lockdown is over for example with Eurobonds. However, support from China remains tied to the condition that the recipients no longer criticize Chinese human rights abuses, a price some states simply are not willing to pay. Another way of showing gratitude is even to praise Xi openly.

Meanwhile, China will endeavor to open up markets to its technology companies, which now offer software to track contacts and identify places with an increased risk of infection. This is the Chinese model and yet it still remains somewhat inconceivable within liberal Europe. Moreover, China is aggressively promoting traditional Chinese medicine as part of its offer of help.

The criticism of China’s support is misplaced. Particularly on the basis that “they are responsible for the virus.” Their help is appreciated, wherever required. However, the price-tag the support yields cannot equate to being overly credulous about China’s current situation, which remains dubious. Most importantly, however, China initially covered up the corona crisis and still does not offer the world real transparency, so its claims should be taken with immense skepticism.

L'articolo The Fallacy of China’s Support During the COVID-19 crisis proviene da InsideOver.

The Chinese economy is a beast that’s not easily tamed. Through the most tumultuous of times — bloodshed at Tiananmen Square, the global financial crisis, Trump’s trade war — it has continued to grow. But now, in the face of Covid-19, it seems the world’s second largest economy has met its match. 

China’s Economic Outlook is Gloomy

Figures published this week paint a bleak picture. As the virus tore through China in early 2020, every sector went into decline. The result, analysts believe, could be the first contraction of the Chinese economy since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.   

In January and February, retail sales plunged 20.5%, industrial output was down 13.5%, and investment dropped by nearly a quarter. A fall was expected in each of the categories, but the extent of the damage has shocked experts. 

“There is nothing in the history of this data to compare to this set of abysmal figures,” said Iris Pang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ING.

Economic Calamity as a Result of Beijing’s Draconian Containment Methods

The current economic calamity is a consequence of Beijing’s draconian approach to containment. As the virus spread, officials moved aggressively to lock down China. Whole cities were cut off, businesses shut, and the movement of people and goods prohibited.    

It was a painful process, but one necessary to stem the spread. Now, as the number of new infections starts to tail off, efforts to reboot the economy are underway. 

The government is vigorously encouraging companies to return to work. Almost 95% of large businesses outside the disease’s epicenter in Hubei province have reopened, with around 60% of small to medium-sized outfits up and running again. But with millions of migrant workers still under quarantine or trapped in their hometowns, many factories and manufacturing centers lie dormant.  

A gradual easing of social isolation measures should correct this, ministers say, but more direct financial stimulus is needed. To this end, Beijing has announced a raft of new policy measures: interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, and a relaxation of taxes.

Halting the Chinese Economy Was Hard, Restarting it Will Be Harder

Beyond restoring domestic economic stability, the Chinese government has a clear incentive to get on the right footing. While the world succumbs to Covid-19, China — having survived the worst of the virus — is in a strong position to take advantage of foreign frailties and surge to a dominant position.

A recent report by Horizon Advisory, a consultancy that tracks Chinese government and economic activity, suggests that Beijing is preparing to seek out more foreign direct investment, seize market share in critical industries, and flood the market with Chinese-made goods while the West is in lock-down.    

The pandemic’s global nature may prove a poisoned chalice for China, however. With more cases of Covid-19 now reported outside of the country, international demand for Chinese products is going to plummet. As sales drop, supply chains linking China’s industrial centers to the world will fragment. Already there is evidence of multinational companies acting to reduce their reliance on the country, shifting manufacturing bases and sourcing new suppliers in different locations.       

Imports, too, will be affected. Chinese factories are dependent on fuel, iron and other key components from all over the world: Angola, Sierra Leone, Chile, Brazil and Australia. Chinese consumers also have a taste for American coffee chains and fast food, and love to drive German cars. If these markets dry up, experts say a global recession is in the offing. 

And there’s more bad news: the economic data for March could be significantly worse than that of January and February, analysts warn. Unemployment rates are soaring too: as many as 5 million people have become jobless since late last year — and consumer confidence remains at rock bottom.

Halting the Chinese economy was hard; restarting it will be harder. That’s bad news for all of us.

L'articolo China’s Economic Recovery Far From Certain Amid Global Recession Fears proviene da InsideOver.