Rivalry between India and China has always been marred by tension and border disputes, which culminated historically in three military conflicts between the two Asian heavyweights.

Rising Tension Between Nuclear-Armed Neighbors

While New Delhi is growing wary about Beijing’s strong relations with India’s arch foe Pakistan, China looks with suspicion at Indian military and economic activities in the disputed South China Sea.

Tension between the nuclear-armed neighbors escalated in deadly clashes along their lengthy frontier earlier this year, with the two countries trading accusations for who was to blame for the violence.

China and India Competing to Gain Influence in Oil-Rich Iran

Now, the two rivals are turning to oil-rich Iran, where the Asian giants are completing to gain a foothold. India and China see Tehran as a strategic gateway to boost their influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Their rivalry now focuses on the strategic Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran.

Located on the Gulf of Oman, the port serves as Iran’s only oceanic port and is close to international waters in the Indian Ocean. The seaport consists of two separate terminals, each of which has five berths built in an area of 485 hectares.

India’s 2016 MoU to Develop Chabahar Port in Iran vs. China’s 2015 Deal With Pakistan to Build Gwadar Port

In 2016, India signed a $1.6-billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tehran to develop the Chabahar port, which is located 1,400 kilometers from India’s commercial capital Mumbai. The MoU also included the construction of a railway line between the port city of Chabahar and Zahedan in southeastern Iran.

The agreement came months after China signed an agreement with India’s neighbor Pakistan in 2015 to develop Gwadar port, which is located only 350 km by land and 140 km by sea from the port of Chabahar.

India sees the development of the Chahabar port as an opportunity to secure connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.

India also signed a trilateral agreement with Iran and Afghanistan in 2016 for the transfer of Indian goods to Afghanistan via Chabahar port, ending New Delhi’s dependence on Pakistan’s ports.

US Withdrawal from the Iran Deal and India’s Changing Relationship With Iran

In May 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Despite the fact that Washington had agreed to a waiver for the Chabahar port and the Chabahar-Zahedan rail project, India halted its oil purchases from Iran in compliance with the US sanctions.

Angered by the Indian move, Iran moved to drop New Delhi out from the Chabahar-Zahedan railway project along the border with Afghanistan in July of this year, citing India’s delay in fulfilling its financial obligations under their agreement.

“I never thought that an independent country like India would be willing to follow the US footsteps and refuse to buy oil from us,” Iran’s First Vice President Ishaq Jahangiri said in statements that reflect Tehran’s anger over the Indian decision to halt oil purchases from Iran.

China and Iran Sign $400 Billion Strategic Partnership

One month after the move, reports emerged that energy-hungry China and Iran signed a $400-billion strategic partnership pact. According to media reports, China will invest $120 billion into transport and manufacturing infrastructure in cash-strapped Iran as part of the deal. The agreement will also allow Tehran to facilitate the infusion of about $280 billion from Beijing, which wants to buy oil from Iran.

Several reports also emerged about Chinese-Iranian talks over China’s participation in the Chahabar-Zaheden railway project as well as Beijing’s interest in taking part in the development of the Chahabar port.

India Scrambles to Respond

These reports have troubled India, leaving Indian officials scrambled to save their country’s share in the Chahabar port and keep China away from the port development project. The Indian worries were evident in the surprise visit by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh to Iran for talks with Iranian officials earlier this month. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar also made a stopover in Tehran for talks with officials there.

The visits reflected India’s growing concerns from being dropped out of the Chahabar port development and being replaced by its geopolitical rival China.

According to observers, China’s elimination of India from the Chahabar port project will be a major success to Beijing as it will mean denying New Delhi access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, something India does not want to lose.

So far, Iran did not exclude India from the Chahabar port project. On the contrary, Tehran is using this card to pressure New Delhi to ignore the US sanctions and fulfill its financial obligations in the project or risk losing its share to its geopolitical rival China.

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The border tension between India and China — which erupted again into conflict last month — has triggered concerns from Russia, given its good relationship with both conflicting parties.

Russian Presidential Spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, expressed Moscow’s concern over the military clash between Beijing and New Delhi in the disputed Ladakh in Galwan Valley last month. However, Peskov was optimistic India and China would be able to resolve the dispute soon.

Russian Statement: Wants Stability in the Region for Both Nations

“Certainly, we are watching with great attention what is happening on the Chinese-Indian border. We believe that this is a very alarming report. But we consider that the two countries are capable of taking necessary steps to prevent such situations in the future and to ensure that there is predictability and stability in the region and that this is a safe region for nations, first of all, China and India,” Peskov said last month.

The border dispute between Beijing and New Delhi is seen as a test for Russia’s partnership with both conflicted countries. Speculations have emerged whether Moscow will take sides with either of them or refrain from acting as a mediator.

What’s Behind the China-India Border Dispute?

The fight in Ladakh in the middle of June — which claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and escalated tensions significantly — was the third after past clashes in 1962 and 1975.

The Galwan River Valley—known for its harsh climate—is located along with the West sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Legally it is inside India’s territory and close to Aksai Chin. China controls the disputed area despite it being claimed by India.

Ladakh is India’s highest altitude. It is a desert with a temperature reaching minus 20 Celsius degrees during the winter.

Former colonel and Indian military observer Ajai Shukla told BBC last May that Galwan had been the hot spot as that is the nearest LAC to a new road constructed by India along the most remote and most vulnerable LAC in Ladakh. The road construction has raised China’s suspicion as the road can potentially serve to mobilize India’s troops and military equipment if a conflict erupts.

Russia’s Friendship with China and India

China’s numerous conflicts with the US — ranging from the trade war to the most recent military show in the contested South China Sea — have brought Beijing closer to Moscow. Russia’s relationship with the US also continues to face some hurdles such as Washington’s accusation that Russia meddled in the 2016 election and the U.S. departure from the Cold War arms treaty, the Ukraine issue and more.

In the Cold War, China and Russia — former rivals to the then-communist power in the Eastern bloc—have forged a partnership in some sectors such as energy and infrastructure. Both signed an economic agreement worth $20 billion USD in numerous industries, such as technology and energy in June of 2019.

In March 2020, Russia’s crude oil exports to China jumped 31 percent, while China’s oil import from Saudi Arabia dropped 1.6 percent compared to the same period last year.

Russia also maintains a good relationship with India, spanning over seven decades. The latter’s prime minister Narendra Modi hailed the India-Russia ties as special during his visit to Vladivostok during the East Economic Forum in September last year.

Trade between India and Russia reached $11 billion USD in 2018. Russia has supplied more than 65 percent of India’s defense equipment for the past ten years, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data revealed

Who is Russia Siding With?

The tension with China at the LAC prompted India to order Russian missiles and bombs. Russia’s S-400 will be expected to arrive by the end of 2021.

Such a situation triggers the next question: Will Russia defend India instead of China? The answer is not that simple, even though Russia and China are competing to be a global superpower despite their good relationship.

Russia will unlikely interfere in the India-China stand-off as Moscow is optimistic that New Delhi and Beijing can settle the dispute without outside help.

During the trilateral meeting of the Russia-India-China (RIC) at the foreign ministerial level through a video conference held after a clash in Ladakh, Russia refused to touch the border issue involving both Asian nations.

“The agenda does not involve discussing issues that relate to bilateral relations of a country with another member of this format,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated ahead of the meeting.

The Bottom Line: India Cannot Rely on Russia

Russia may be the main exporter of India’s military equipment. However, that does not mean that India can heavily rely on Russia given that Russia does not want to sacrifice ties with China and has lifted arms embargo to Pakistan, which has been in dispute with India over the Kashmir issue.

“Even from a national security perspective, it does not make sense for India to acquire Russia’s defense equipment anymore,” Rajagopalan from Observer Research Foundation told South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Despite maintaining good ties with India and China, Russia does not always share common ground with them on specific issues. For example, Russia takes a neutral stance over China’s claim over the contested South China Sea and has asked the Kashmir dispute to be resolved based on the UN charter. China also rejects Russia’s claim over Crimea.

Taking sides with one of the conflicting nations will ruin Russia’s relations with both countries. Therefore, staying out of the conflict is their natural preference.

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