In the warzone in eastern Ukraine, there is once again an attempt being made to establish a permanent ceasefire. According to information from Kyiv, mediators negotiated an agreement with Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) that is scheduled to go into effect on Monday, July 27.

Making Ukraine Ceasefire a Reality

The previous Wednesday the Presidential Office in Kyiv announced that a “complete and all-embracing cessation of fire” should come into force at 1 o’clock on Monday. The agreement was reached during a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group (TKG) and would finally advance the provisions of the Paris Summit of December 2019.

Since 2014, the Ukrainian army on the one hand, and Russian and Pro-Russian fighters of two unrecognized, illegal “people’s republics” on the other, have been facing each other on the 450-kilometer line of demarcation in eastern Ukraine. The additional measures are now — according to the OSCE — primarily focused on a complete ban on the use of firearms, drones, attacks and sabotage as well as the placement of “heavy weapons” in and around residential areas.

What Happens if Fighters Break the Ceasefire?

In the event of an infringement, “disciplinary measures” should be enforced and the management of the TKG should be informed, who in turn will inform all TKG participants. It was also agreed that in the event of an attack by one side, these mechanisms must first be used before “counter-fire” is permitted, and this too is only permitted on the orders of the commanders of the respective commanders of the army or the fighters.

The latter aims to introduce more transparency and meticulous accountability into the hybrid war with – especially on the part of the fighters – unclear command structures.

It remains to be seen whether this will succeed in a conflict that has now turned into a positional war. Around two dozen attempts for a ceasefire have so far failed after only a short time.

A ceasefire that is stuck to by all actors involved is an essential prerequisite for a new Ukraine crisis summit, which had already been planned in Berlin in the spring. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron seek to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky together again.

Poroshenko: No Clear Roadmap to Peace Currently Exists

Meanwhile, Zelensky’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko — now head of the European Solidarity opposition party — stated on Thursday that he was ready to support Zelensky in his peace efforts, however, criticized the current administration had brought the peace process “to a standstill”, as no clear roadmap existed. As a result, Russia has been “creeping towards the annexation of the region” by issuing Russian passports to many Eastern Ukrainians.

According to Poroshenko, the principle of “safety first” hence needed to apply to Ukraine, and a UN blue helmet mission was needed to “be an integral part of such a road map.”

The War in the Donbas

Ukrainian government troops have been fighting pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Donbas mining district since spring 2014. The government in Kyiv and the West have accused Russia of providing financial and arms support to the insurgents. Moscow rejects this. According to UN estimates, more than 13,000 people have been killed in the conflict in the past six years. A peace plan agreed with Franco-German mediation in 2015 provides for elections and gradual reintegration of the region into Ukraine after an armistice.

Nonetheless, the ceasefire now will be highly volatile mainly as it seems dubious how any “disciplinary measures” were enforced if a party violate the agreement. Putin has shown time and time again that he does not play according to the rules of the international community and that sanctions and even exclusions (such as from the G8) affect him only to a limited extent.

The Western deterrence against Russian aggression has been deteriorating for years, not only in Ukraine. Massive Western pressure is particularly needed here to force Putin to make severe concessions to Ukraine, as the real goal of Russia in Eastern Ukraine remains apparent. It is a goal the West must never accept.

L'articolo Ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine to Come Into Effect Today proviene da InsideOver.

The participating countries are entering the final stretch for the Berlin Conference on the Libyan Civil War. The German initiative to host a conference, aiming to limit the long-lasting violence and unrest in Libya has been scheduled for this Sunday, 19 January 2020. Fifteen parties could participate in the conference, after being invited by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the German Minister of Foreign affairs, Heiko Maas.

In addition to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (United States, Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China, France, and the United Kingdom), requests to attend have been sent to Italy, Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, UAE and Republic of Congo. Representatives from the United Nations, the European Union, the African Union, and the Arab League will also take part in the process.

Turkey; not really “internationally isolated”

Turkey has been engaging in some notable political manoeuvring over the last few months, with regards to Libya. Erdogan has been openly expressing his support for the Tripoli government and Fayez al-Sarraj, not only through diplomatic channels but also by providing substantial support on the ground. The talks around Turkish military equipment shipped to Tripoli amidst an active arms embargo and the deployment of Turkish troops to Libya have prompted wide controversy, fueling international criticism. Yet here is Turkey, being one of the main players in the peace negotiations in Berlin.

To the contrary of what Greek sources, and especially the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikos Dendias, are trying to convince the public, Turkey is not internationally marginalized at all. Despite the provocative Turkish actions in the Mediterranean, that have been occasionally condemned by the EU and the States, Ankara is utilizing an ingenious, albeit risky, foreign policy using a well-balanced combination of political and military means.

The cooperation with Sarraj and – according to Tayyip Erdogan – the deployment of Turkish forces in Libya has created a situation on the ground, where Turkey is a de facto key actor, in all the processes around the Libyan Crisis. Considering the limited territory under Sarraj’s control and Haftar’s backing from Russia, Egypt and the Gulf countries, it is under question if the Turkish involvement could eventually tip the balance in favor of GNA in the case of a decisive escalation; in fact, it is dubious if Turkey was planning to engage in full battle against LNA, in the first place. According to a recent statement from the Turkish Vice President, Fuat Oktay, the large-scale deployment of Turkish Armed Forces in Libya, could be avoided, should the crisis deescalate. In a closer look, this could be just a Turkish well-played waggle, in order political leverage to be achieved in Libya through force projection; so far it has played out quite well for Ankara.

Greece; missing the point once again

Moving to the developments in Greece, things are rather discouraging for Hellenic Diplomacy and the Hellenic Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Both Greek Alternate Minister of Foreign Affairs, Militiadis Varvitsiotis and Government Spokesman Stelios Petsas stated in the previous days that Athens has been persistently pushing for the country’s participation in the Berlin Conference; as it turns out the Greek efforts have been far from fruitful. In the latest statement issued by Berlin, the Memorandum of Understanding, or at least the bilateral agreements over the maritime borders, between Turkey and Libya -the very reason that Greece had to participate- would not be discussed in the Conference and is not deemed relevant to the current peace talks. In this respect, all the EU countries that are not essentially involved in the Libyan Crisis would be represented by the EU delegate, according to the German side.

The German approach is candidly downgrading Athens’ international standing, especially when considering that Greek vital interests are at stake, depending on the developments in the Libyan front. The current situation should be primarily attributed to the failure of the Greek diplomacy to secure a position in the Conference, and secondarily to the unfair judgment of the German Chancellor. The situation is just as disappointing within Greece.

All the opposition parties have missed the point once again and seem unable to understand how important this matter for the country is. Such a critical issue has been treated as an opportunity to criticize the government and eventually has turned into a pointless political debate between the ruling party and the opposition. It’s about time for the Greek side -including parties all across the political spectrum- to carefully reconsider their approach to foreign policy issues and adopt a more responsible and unified stance. For now, all eyes are on Berlin; the decisions to be taken on Sunday, will have a significant impact not only in war-tormented Libya but also in the wider region, definitely including Athens and Ankara.

L'articolo Heading Towards the Berlin Conference proviene da InsideOver.

Shortly after signing the landmark TurkStream agreement in Istanbul last week, the Russian and Turkish presidents proceeded to issue a joint statement; not surprisingly, their speech has not been limited to the colossal energy deal but highlighted the remarkable geopolitical footprint of the two sides in the south-eastern Mediterranean.

Syria as a regional example – in Putin’s words

Vladimir Putin has paid a brief last-minute visit to Damascus just before meeting Erdogan in Istanbul. According to the Russian President, Syria sets a regional example of how to achieve stability and manage a tremendous humanitarian and geopolitical crisis, in a country that has been suffering from an internal conflict for almost a decade and has been several times in the verge of collapse in the recent past. Now, as President Assad has secured his position and the country is gradually returning to a “state condition” probably for the first time since 2011, President Putin emphasized Russia’s role as a stability guarantor, and directly compared and criticized the numerous mistakes and wrong moves of the West that turned Libya to a failed state. The persistent pressure from Western countries, especially France, to topple Muammar Gaddafi, dragged the country into a grave civil war, with unprecedented consequences.

Libya; different proxies, common ground

This “Western incompetency” is also responsible for the current power vacuum in Libya, as the two Presidents have pointed from Istanbul. Two main rival fractions are dominating the Libyan front, with Moscow and Ankara putting their money on different sides this time. The Tripoli-based and UN-recognized Government of National Accord under the Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj is currently being drastically supported by the Turkish President. On the other hand, Russia stands behind General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army, which already possesses most of the Libyan territory and most recently managed to cease control of Sirte, a port city of strategic importance, located between Tripoli and Benghazi.

Even though Erdogan and Putin have crucial differences when it comes to Libya, they managed to come up with a cease-fire proposal, just after their agreement on the TurkStream pipeline, a project that will significantly upgrade the international standing of both countries and will have a considerable geopolitical impact on Europe as a whole, considering all the energy security parameters and implications. The cease-fire proposal that has been accepted by the opposing sides in Libya, might be a fragile one, yet it is a plan that has been approved by the parties involved, putting Ankara and Moscow’s influence in the country beyond question. This is the very reason why Turkey and Russia found common ground and managed to achieve what the EU and Western powers have been failing to do so far. A cease-fire agreement makes Erdogan and Putin de facto players in the Libyan crisis negotiations, just like the way Moscow managed to establish its role in Syria, consolidating their image as international power brokers.

EU role in Libya and beyond

Vladimir Putin has also disparaged from Istanbul the Western and EU reaction to the escalating tension between Iran and the US, which has been triggered by Soleimani’s killing. Focusing on the Libyan front, in fact, the European Union has done too little too late. Even though the Tripoli government has been officially recognized by the UN and most western countries, the European Union failed to react or simply ignored Saraj’s calls for support. Therefore, the Tripoli government had to eventually turn to Erdogan for military and logistical assistance alongside diplomatic and political backing. The vital space that Ankara exploited has been created by the European absence from the crisis.

President Putin met Angela Merkel in Moscow on Saturday 11 January 2020, and the Libyan crisis has been among the top issues in their agenda, alongside their backing for JCPOA and their plans for NordStream. Regarding Libya, albeit the differences between Putin and the German Chancellor, it has been clear that both sides look forward to initiating the talks for the de-escalation of the crisis, in order to establish a functional Libyan state again. Merkel has been particularly interested in the Libyan developments, as Berlin is going to host the Libya peace conference later this month, according to German officials.

On the same day, Erdogan has welcomed in the Dolmabahçe Palace, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. President Michel embraced the Erdogan-Putin joint statement on a ceasefire and welcomed the support of the Turkish President for the Berlin peace negotiations. Erdogan has also hosted Sarraj in Istanbul on the 12^th of January; the Libyan GNA leader visited Turkey after talking with several EU leaders last week.

Currently, the situation in Libya remains highly unstable, with both sides accusing each other of breaching the fragile ceasefire agreement; the escalation of hostilities could be triggered again anytime. Numerous countries are working towards a peace plan, with all sides pointing towards a political solution, as the most appropriate -if not the only- one for the country. Whichever the course of the events is from now on, crucial developments should be expected in the days and weeks to come.

L'articolo Libya Talks After Erdogan-Putin Meeting proviene da InsideOver.