The previous election result displayed what had been evident for a while: Canada is deeply divided. The coastal regions are progressive, while the oil provinces and conservative countryside are worried about their future. Prime Minister Trudeau has now introduced his Cabinet, with which he seeks to tackle the issues Canada faces. Once again Trudeau has taken a route towards symbolism over Realpolitik.

One month after the Canadian general election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has presented and sworn in his new Cabinet. Its main duties according to Trudeau: Reunite the country, enable economic growth for the middle class, combat climate change, and ensure the safety of Canadian communities.

Rather ambitious plans for a Prime Minister, who will need the support of other parties to facilitate any of his visions. His party lost its majority in the previous election. Now, Trudeau is leading a minority government.

One reason for Trudeau’s fall from grace – besides having been exposed as not being holier than water after all – was that his party could not win a single seat in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Both are the heart of the Canadian oil industry, however, Trudeau’s obsession in favor of a pro-climate course has alienated voters in the region, who are feeling their livelihoods are at stake. Currently, protesters in the two provinces have been holding rallies in favor of a “Wexit”, i.e. a secession of the Canadian West from the rest of the country.

The reappearance of Bloc Québécois, who tripled their seats, has created another issue for Trudeau. The party gained support by promising to defend the concerns of French-speaking Canada. Trudeau’s answer? Ten of the thirty-six ministerial posts in his cabinet are from Quebec in an obvious attempt to immediately cease any emerging secessionism initiated by Bloc Québécois.

Twelve former ministers received new roles, while the cabinet only has seven members who had not been part of the previous administration. As in 2015, Trudeau paid attention to parity. Half of the posts are thus occupied by women.

One of these women is Mona Fortier. She is the Minister for Middle-Class Prosperity. It is a nearly created office, and Trudeau’s answer to an extremely worried middle-class in the country.

Meanwhile, the former Trade and Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland seeks to help him to master the domestic challenges, namely as Minister for Intergovernmental Affairs, while also becoming the new Deputy Prime Minister. Freeland’s successor as Foreign Minister will be the current Infrastructure Minister François-Philippe Champagne.

The new cabinet will meet for the first time in Ottawa on December 5. By then Trudeau also seeks to present to parliament the priorities of his government. As he announced on Wednesday, the first reform will target tax relief for the middle class.

In the face of the deep divisions, the country faces and Trudeau’s subpar election result answers to the question of how Trudeau would now try to bridge these trenches was eagerly awaited in recent weeks.

As so often with Trudeau, however, symbolism has remained on the top of his agenda and the middle-class ministry, as well as French-speaking cabinet members, are a testimony to it. It reminds one more of a campaign promise than a specific task description and it makes one wonder, whether Trudeau received the message the voters provided him with on election night.

Trudeau has become a Canadian left-wing version of Donald Trump. A President not for the country, but his base. It is where the issue lies for Trudeau and he is unlikely to escape the conundrum satisfying the call for even more progressivism on the one hand and traditional, Canadian values on the other.

L'articolo Lesson not Learned: Trudeau Introduces his Cabinet in What will Likely be his last Term proviene da InsideOver.

While the absolute majority is lost, Trudeau’s party remains the strongest in Ottawa’s parliament. Signs are pointing towards a minority government.

Canada’s election turned out to be the cliff-hanger it was advertised as. The Trudeau-led Liberals defended their position as governing party, receiving 33 per cent of the votes, a minus of 6.5 per cent compared to 2015. Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party received 34.4 per cent (+2.5).

In the traditional sense, Scheer is the election winner. However, Canada’s election system of majority voting will likely keep Trudeau in Office. In Mandates, his party beats his conservative opponent by 157 seats to 121.

Significant gains in votes were recorded by the regional Bloc Québécois, 7.7 per cent (+3) resulting in 32 seats, as well as the Green Party with 6.5 per cent (+3) and three seats. The New Democrats received 15.9 per cent (-3.8) and 24 seats.

The Liberals will continue to set the tone in parliament, however, not with the comfortable majority on which Trudeau could rely after his election victory in 2015. At that time, the Liberals had obtained 184 of the 338 seats in a landslide victory.

Trudeau’s losses did not come as a surprise. Many moments in which the progressive icon himself did not satisfy the lofty moral standards he had established for the country.

Trudeau’s loss of the absolute majority has not only been a statement by the Canadian people, but it will likely result in a minority government. In Canada, minority governments are quite common, while coalitions are uncommon.

While the last two elections have resulted in majorities – in 2015 for the Liberals, previously for the Conservatives – minority governments followed in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections. Every third election since 1921 led to such a constellation.

With the election results from Monday, the Canadian parliament gains additional power over Trudeau’s government. So far, the Liberals controlled all committees and thus their respective agendas. Times on The Hill are set to become very interesting for Trudeau.

Trudeau’s future government is likely to be solidified by the decline of the New Democrats and the starched Bloc Québécois. The New Democrats could even face a leadership crisis after a disappointing result. Hence, re-election would be the worst-case scenario for both parties. This circumstance is likely to be Trudeau’s advantage and could allow him to conduct his minority government with some support.

However, this support comes with a price: a further turn to the left. The New Democrats seek to invest a significant sum into climate-change measures. If Trudeau seeks their support, he will have to comply.

It is what will likely make or break the next government. A further left turn equals an all-in move by Trudeau, as it may not only increase fears in the Canadian financial market but likely fully alienates oil-rich provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan – places that already voted in favour of the Conservatives.

Nonetheless, Trudeau will seek redemption and reinvent himself as the uber-progressive, who won the 2015 election so decisively. Unfortunately, by doing so, Trudeau continues to transform into a phenomenon, he had been highly critical of in the past: a leader, who only serves his base and not the country.

L'articolo Trudeau Wins Canadian Election Despite Significant Losses proviene da InsideOver.

Today, Canada elects a new parliament. What was supposed to be a formality for Canada’s uber progressive poster boy Justin Trudeau, might turn out to be Canada’s first one-term tenure of a Prime Minister since the 1930s, as his party is currently trailing in the polls. His fall from grace is based on having failed to satisfy impeccable standards he seemingly set for everyone but himself.

With momentum and optimism, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took office four years ago after his decisive election victory. A long reign had been predicted. Today, Trudeau might not maintain his mandate. His party is currently slightly behind the opposition conservatives and their top candidate Andrew Scheer at 31 to 32 per cent.

The election victory of Trudeau in 2015 was supposed to be a turning point; he was set to lead the country socio-politically into the modern age. His vision: Canada needed to become more feminist, more ecological and surely even more multicultural. Over were the oppressive, conservative days of predecessor Stephen Harper, who simply was lacking the necessary “wokeness” to appeal to Canada’s millennials. Trudeau’s campaign promises of legalising marijuana, establishing Cabinet parity, as well as his pledge to increase relations with the indigenous peoples of Canada, on the other hand, seemed like a paradigm shift towards a better world and a higher moral ground.

One could even argue that Trudeau won the US election in 2016. With Donald Trump in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Trudeau’s political style and his worldview made Canada the morally supreme entity on the continent.

Four years later, things have changed, and the election campaign has been unexpectedly tricky at best. The reasons for it are self-inflicted. First, Trudeau violated the country’s ethics laws when he urged his attorney general not to prosecute an engineering company in a conflict of interest case. Two ministers resigned in protest. Trudeau did not apologise until an ethics committee reprimanded him two months ago.

A few weeks ago, almost 20-year-old photos appeared on which Trudeau wears the infamous “brownface”, which is rightfully considered as racist. Worse yet, when asked how many of these pictures he had taken, he was not able to say. It was not just a scratch but rather a deep cut in Canada’s white knight’s armour and an utter PR disaster.

Nonetheless, his policies may be considered successful by some, certainly in progressive circles. Canada’s unemployment rate decreased from seven to five and a half per cent during his tenure, helping the economy to create over one million new jobs. The CETA trade agreement with the EU is also in force for the time being, which should be highly beneficial for the country in the long run. Child support has been raised, taxes for the middle class have been lowered. Moreover, he fulfilled his promise of legalising marijuana and regulated euthanasia by law. One of his signatures promises, the reform of the electoral system, Trudeau did not facilitate, however.

Trudeau has been trying to highlight his accomplishments during the election circle. Naturally, Trudeau emphasises the millennial’s favourite topic: the climate. However, Canada is not just Toronto, Montreal and Edmonton. The people who live out in the beautiful countryside of Canada have had other concerns. The Conservatives, fairly cognizant of it, have not wasted a second always to attack Trudeau’s carbon tax. Scheer has already promised its abolition, as he deems it “job-destroying”.

The Mr perfect aura is gone, and even if he stayed in office, it might be hard for him moving forward, to preach his idealistic visions while attempting to turn Canadians into moralists. Trudeau had never been as popular in Canada as he has been portrayed, however, the fact that the incumbent Prime Minister now struggles to defeat an equally semi-unpopular conservative candidate decisively sums up Trudeau’s downfall perfectly.

If Trudeau wins, his desire for redemption will likely end up in more detrimental policies and an even more pronounced rift in society. It is what his base seeks to see. The rest of the country, however, does not. Whatever the outcome of this election will be, Trudeau has already lost.

L'articolo Practice What you Preach – Why Justin Trudeau has Already Lost proviene da InsideOver.

As increasing media attention focuses on the current situation in Turkey and Syria as well as domestic American politics and the ongoing Trump-Ukraine situation, Canada’s upcoming federal election on October 21 has entered a new phase of intensity and bitterness. At a delayed rally held recently in Mississauga near Toronto, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is running for re-election to a second term, wore a bulletproof vest and was surrounded by a tactical team and plainclothes officers due to unspecified threats against him. It’s an unprecedented step for a Canadian politician. Even recalling the fatal shooting of Corporal Nathan Cirillo and attempted storming of federal parliament by a lone gunman inspired by Islamic extremism in 2014, politics in Canada is generally fairly low-key compared to how politics plays out south of the border.

Nonetheless, Canadian politics has transitioned into a more American-style partisanship in the last few years, especially since Trudeau’s decisive victory in Canada’s 2015 election. In the lead up to this month’s election authorities say they have been tracking online posts advocating political violence and note that there has been an uptick in online commentary excusing or encouraging violence. Although many voters have been left unenthusiastic in what some are terming an election about nothing, it is clear that Canada’s political climate has become a little less polite this time around. Right-wing propaganda outlets like the Rebel have helped spark angry resentment and protest of Trudeau, while many left-wing parties and political figures have chosen to fully inhabit a place of childishly reactive and intense opposition to anything within a mile of the word conservative, especially on social issues which Canada’s centre and left parties falsely contend have already been settled by near-unanimous consensus among the Canadian public.

As can be seen from 338 Canada’s electoral projection map, the Conservatives and Liberals enjoy different pockets of support, with the Liberals enjoying strong backing in various urban centres and the Conservatives and NDP (democratic socialist party) getting strong support in various rural areas. Voters remain undecided in some cases and there is a good chance this race could go either way, but analysts agree the race is tight and it certainly could go to Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives, particularly in light of discovery that Trudeau engaged in blackface multiple times in the past. The resulting dip Trudeau experienced in the polls, as well as disappointment from his left-leaning supporters over his approval of a controversial pipeline project and a major scandal (the SNC-Lavalin Affair) involving resignation of Trudeau’s attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould and him kicking her out of the Liberal party add to his political vulnerability.

As parties to the left of Trudeau like the NDP and Greens gain support, the Conservatives benefit. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been clear about his openness to form a coalition against the Conservatives should they win, showing that he understands the very real possibility that Trudeau’s time is up. For his part, Trudeau has been telling voters that Conservatives will cut all sorts of government services and be bad for working families, pointing to the example of Ontario Premier Doug Ford and cuts he’s made to the province of Ontario. Conservative fortunes have been incrementally rising and enthusiasm for Trudeau does appear to be on the wane among some of his less committed past voters. With underwhelming voter enthusiasm, participation may also be low, and it all bodes well for the Conservatives.

As Scheer has remarked, despite a late release of the party platform, the Conservative strategy is quite simple: to pitch himself and his party as the party of working Canadians to make life more affordable and “put more money in their pocket.” Scheer has also been speaking out against foreign aid, foreign direct investment in the energy sector and “corporate welfare” as a symptom of high government spending especially going to profitable companies as unnecessary deficit ballooning. Scheer’s savvy strategy is to present Trudeau as untrustworthy and a high-taxing, corrupt leader who is detached from the lives of ordinary Canadians. This is a politely Canadian riff on the “anti-establishment” tack which has been showing up as particularly effective in elections around the world in our current political moment.

The federal leaders’ debate on Oct. 7 was mainly a stage of adults bickering and undercutting each other constantly like grade-schoolers, but did result in slight surges of support for conservative defector Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party and the NDP.  Although the People’s Party has the potential to sap votes from the Conservatives, the bulk of Canada’s politics is on the centre and left, making it more likely that flagging support for Trudeau and the Liberals going to other left parties could result in a Conservative Victory next week.

L'articolo Trudeau Faces Tough Contest In Canada’s Upcoming Election proviene da InsideOver.