The exit poll for the UK General Election indicates that the Conservative Party will win 368 seats, whilst the Labour Party will win 191. This will result in a majority of 86, the largest majority for the Tories since the 1980s. For Jeremy Corbyn, this will be Labour’s worst result since 1935.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) are set to increase their dominance in Scotland and win 55 seats, whilst the Liberal Democrats may only gain 13. The Brexit Party is unlikely to make any gains at all.

If these results are accurate, Boris Johnson may have turned around the Conservative Party’s fortunes. He has always been a divisive figure in British politics, but compared to 2017, he has always had one advantage over Theresa May- he campaigned for Brexit. Since he became Prime Minister, Boris has tried to ensure that Britain leaves the EU on time. He deployed every tactic in the book from proroguing Parliament to securing a deal satisfactory to all sides of the Conservative Party. A general election was his last resort, and it has worked to his advantage.

Throughout the election, the Tories’ mantra was ‘Get Brexit Done.’ Their message was simple- if the electorate awards the Conservatives a majority, they can vote through Boris’s deal and complete the Brexit process. They have also focused on areas that Labour are traditionally strong on, like health and education. Throughout the 2019 General Election, the Tories have consistently said the Brexit paralysis has delayed their progress on these issues, and by securing that majority, they can invest in public services and concentrate on other issues that matter to the British people.

The Tories have conducted a safe campaign. They have avoided cowering out of debates, the game-changing mistake that May made in 2017, and they had a simple manifesto message. The 2017 manifesto was damaged by policies on fox-hunting and making pensioners pay for their social care.

They have also been fortunate enough to witness the Brexit Party’s vote collapse. Nigel Farage agreed not to contest candidates in seats the Conservatives need to win. They were also damaged by bloopers like four of their MEPs declaring their support for Boris.

Considering how close they came to power in 2017, Labour hoped that their campaign of ending austerity would work to their advantage after almost ten years of Conservative rule. Corbyn tried to rally his coalition of voters that almost shifted him into power two years ago, but his support has collapsed.

Many of their policies have been exposed for being expensive, like free broadband, which would have to be paid for through nationalisation. Their campaign of ‘saving the NHS from Donald Trump’ was damaged by revelations that the health service would not be included in a US-UK post-Brexit trade deal. Furthermore, Corbyn’s neutral Brexit stance left its voters unsure whether the party stood for remaining in or leaving the EU, which left them vulnerable to the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.

The Liberal Democrats hoped that their anti-Brexit message would appeal to Remainers, but Jo Swinson failed to cut through to them because her position was viewed as extreme. This is why she failed to win over Tory Remainers who voted against leaving the EU, but believed that a democratic result should be respected.

The Tories’ Brexit message failed to resonate in Scotland, which voted to remain in the EU. They hoped their unionist message would prevent an SNP onslaught, but Nicola Sturgeon won the argument there. This shows that Brexit, not the Union, was the dominant theme north of the border.

Brexit overwhelmingly influenced this election outcome, and this result reflects that the majority of voters want it completed. But this poll leaves Labour in dark territory. As Andrew Neill said- they have already lost the 2024 General Election. This vote will change British politics, no matter what the final result actually looks like.

L'articolo 2019 UK General Election: How Britain Reached this Outcome proviene da InsideOver.

“In a sense we now have a Leave alliance, it’s just that we’ve done it unilaterally,” Farage remarked, somewhat cheekily, having promised that his own party members would stand down in those constituencies where the Conservatives were favoured to win, based on the last national election. Farage and his Brexit Party hope that this will secure the earliest exit from the EU possible.

It’s an unusual move in a country where the parties have differentiated themselves by their approach to Brexit, and are engaged in dogged fighting over a fickle voting body.

For Farage, however, it is been typically subversive. Back when he lead UKIP, the party was sidelined by media and mainstream politics. Despite this, UKIP managed to deliver on its platform (albeit with the slimmest of margins) and began the road to Brexit. Farage left Brexit, only to return as leader of the Brexit Party, which aims to exert pressure on the main parties to deliver a quick Brexit, regardless of the short-term cost. Again, they were successful, garnering significant support in the EU parliamentary elections.

Now, Farage is on the campaign that counts, as Britain faces its fourth election in a little under five years. Can onlookers expect a hat trick?

The ‘Brexit’ mandate

The current national election will take place on December 12. On Monday (November 11), Farage announced that his Brexit Party would not stand in the constituencies the Conservatives won during the 2017 national election, so as not to split the Leave vote. That means dipping out of 317 electoral races: nearly half of all available seats in the British parliament.

The announcement is both an electoral tactic and an assertion of character for the Brexit Party. It signals a willingness to sacrifice influence for the sake of Leave, and an earnestness in delivering an end to the Brexit debacle, at a time when both the Conservatives and Labour have been criticised for their lack of commitment to Leave or Remain, respectively. It also echoes other rightwing populist movements – like Marine La Pen’s gambit in the 2017 French national election to stand as an independent.

Whereas the tactic failed for La Pen, Farage has a much better track-record – and British politics is in a greater state of upheaval. Despite UKIP never polling very high as a political party, it delivered a successful Leave vote in 2016, and with Farage at the helm of the Brexit Party, it has proven itself a disruptive force in British politics: less than a year old and without a single MP, it was, nevertheless, became one of the most significant parties in Britain, with more than 30% of the vote.

Vacillating parties (and their voters)

Farage’s confident leadership also comes during a moment of shifting party platforms – especially among the left – and a fickle electorate.

Judging by current polls, there are two clear trends. The lead for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives seems to be secure, though a little bit erratic. Some polls suggest the lead is as high as 15%, while others put it at just 7%. Even if they only manage an average of these figures, they will still have a significant majority.

Meanwhile, the Remain vote is splintering between Labour and the Liberal Democrats – a party which hasn’t seen nearly this degree of interest in nearly a decade. The slightly faltering support for Labour is especially notable because it follows a stunning electoral success for Corbyn in 2017, which upended Tory support, and many failed leadership challenges from party members who disagreed with his increasingly leftist platform. It may be that Corbyn’s uncertain approach to Brexit may be what’s costing him now.

Notably, the Brexit Party lost several percentage points in the polls. It may be this represents people switching their vote in support of a stronger mandate to Leave with the Conservatives. There are those in British media who suggest that Farage’s move to suspend campaigning in Tory constituencies is more about saving face, as the enthusiastic support that carried the party in the Parliamentary elections begins to drain away.

This upcoming election revolves around Brexit, and people seem to be are ditching party loyalty and voting based on their attitude to Brexit. This has been Farage’s obsession during his entire political career, and he has shown himself to be adept in manoeuvring in advocating for it. In the current election, he is attempting a familiar feat: to sway the minds of an insecure minority who may wish to escape the current political limbo. His record suggests he could manage it.

L'articolo Nigel Farage Subverts British Politics (Again) proviene da InsideOver.

Nigel Farage’s announcement that the Brexit Party will not contest 317 seats won by the Conservatives in the 2017 General Election is a welcome relief for many Tories. Prime Minister Boris Johnson welcomed the former UKIP leader’s decision, claiming it is a ‘recognition that there is only one way to get Brexit done, and that is to vote Conservative.’

Political academic Matthew Goodwin tweeted that it is ‘silly to suggest this does not matter. A lot of motivated reasoning today.’ He added that 35 of the 50 smallest Conservative majorities are in Leave seats. These include former Conservative MP Anna Soubry’s constituency in Broxtowe, where the Tories only won with a slim majority of 863.

Other Leave constituencies where the Brexit Party could have posed a significant threat include Worcester, where former Brexit Minister Robin Walker retained the seat with a 2,490 majority two years ago.

In Hastings and Rye, another Leave seat, former Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd claimed victory with a thin majority of 346. By withdrawing Brexit Party candidates from these seats, Farage has increased the Tories’ chances of retaining them in December.

For those hoping that Britain leaves the EU entirely with a deal in December 2020, Farage has made the right decision. He has recognised that the Brexit Party can cause significant damage to Boris Johnson’s chances of entering 10 Downing Street with a majority. It appears that the Brexit Party leader was offered a peerage in order to stand aside, but he rejected it. This shows that he cares more about his 22-year campaign to ensure the UK leaves the EU than his ego, which Sun columnist and Farage’s close friend Leo McKinstry said blinded his original decision to contest all 650 constituencies.

The former UKIP leader has also realised that Boris’s deal is the best way of ensuring that Britain can achieve a Canada-style free trade agreement, something Farage has been promoting since Vote Leave won the EU Referendum over three years ago. He also accepted that the Prime Minister has no intention of extending the transition period beyond December 2020.

Last week, Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens announced that they agreed a pact to not contest certain constituencies where either party has a strong chance of winning in order to return a Remain alliance to Parliament that can thwart Brexit. It was inevitable that those on the centre-right would have to reach a similar agreement.

However, the Tories should not become overly optimistic. The Economist produced a piece analysing Labour MP Vernon Coaker’s seat of Gedling, a constituency both the Tories and the Brexit Party are contesting. He told the publication that Brexit voters in his constituency are more likely to vote for Farage’s party over the Conservatives. In seats like this, a split vote could damage the Tories’ chances of gaining a substantial majority.

The Liberal Democrats and Labour have already used this pact to their advantage. Corbyn has accused Boris and Farage of a ‘Trump alliance’ that would lead to ‘Thatcherism on steroids.’ Liberal Democrat deputy leader Ed Davey said the Conservatives and the Brexit Party are ‘now one and the same.’ In seats like Cheltenham, which the Liberal Democrats are desperate to gain from the Conservatives, this could push Tory Remainers towards Swinson’s party and cost the Tories this constituency.

The Brexit Party are also standing in SNP seats like Perth and North Perthshire. In 2015, UKIP took 1,110 votes there and prevented the Conservatives from gaining it. Farage’s current party could do the same again.

The Conservatives are right to feel more optimistic since Farage made his announcement, but because the Brexit Party are not standing aside altogether, a majority is not guaranteed yet.

L'articolo Could the Brexit Party Damage the Tories Elsewhere in this Election? proviene da InsideOver.

When Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in July, he pledged to take Britain out of the EU by October 31st with or without a deal. However, it proved difficult to deliver this promise when parliamentary arithmetic made a no-deal Brexit impossible. This is why the Prime Minister was forced to apologise on a Sky News interview last weekend for failing to fulfil his target. Now that the country faces the most unpredictable general election in recent times, Boris has taken a huge gamble. He must hope that most of the electorate sympathises with his desperate circumstances and awards him with the majority he needs to pass his Withdrawal Agreement.

Before July, the Brexit Party stormed the European Parliament election by winning 29 out of 72 of the UK’s seats. They also cost the Conservatives the Brecon and Peterborough by-elections. The University of Liverpool’s Andrew Russell suggested that if this performance was repeated during a Westminster election, the party could win Leave-backing areas like Stoke-on-Trent and Sunderland. Strathclyde University’s Professor John Curtice also warned that Nigel Farage’s party could split the centre-right vote. Farage was perceived as a threat to the Conservative vote and a pact between the Brexit Party and the Tories made sense before September.

During the summer, EU leaders were refusing to budge on the Irish backstop and they were adamant Britain had to leave by October 31st. Even French President Emmanuel Macron became so irritated with Brexit that he was prepared to veto an extension to the EU’s October deadline. This made a no-deal Brexit, something both Boris and Farage were united on, seem likely in August. This is why MPs rushed to pass legislation like the Benn Act that forced the Prime Minister to ask for a Brexit delay if he failed to agree a deal with Brussels. This possible outcome also triggered the Tory leader to prorogue Parliament and force an early election in October. If Parliament approved of an autumn election, Farage and Boris should have agreed to a pact immediately.

Since then, the Prime Minister managed to negotiate a deal with the EU, something many doubted he could do. This deal is better than Theresa May’s because it removes the Irish backstop and replaces it with a Protocol that prevents a hard border. It also keeps Northern Ireland in the UK’s customs territory. From January 1st 2021, Britain can sign trade deals with other nations. Finally, Stormont can quit the Protocol any time it wants. This agreement has now become the main dividing line between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. With Boris refusing to ditch it for a pact with Farage, an alliance between their respective parties is no longer necessary.

The Prime Minister’s decision carries some risks. A poll conducted by the Daily Mirror on November 2nd found the Brexit Party on 11 per cent. If they maintain this poll rating, Farage could cause the Conservatives to lose certain Leave heartlands. But in seats the Tories need to retain to win a majority, like Cheltenham where the Liberal Democrats have a strong presence, a Farage-Boris pact could cost the Tories these vulnerable marginal seats where no-deal is viewed as toxic.

A Tory majority is possible. If Boris can lead a positive campaign about what he wants to achieve post-Brexit, he can win that coalition of voters he needs to gain a majority. He also stated he will not be retreating from a leadership debate, something May did in 2017. The latest Opinium/Observer poll provides the Conservatives with a 16-point lead over Labour, which will give Boris a comfortable majority. This proves there is all to play for in this election.

L'articolo Was a Tory-Brexit Party Pact Ever the Right Thing to do? proviene da InsideOver.