The German warship FGS Hamburg is en route to join the EU-led Mission Irini. As the German Navy announced, the warship left the port of Wilhelmshaven on August 4 to join the task force. The deployed forces of Operation Irini, form a coalition with primary mission to monitor any illicit movements related to the Libyan civil war and implement the UN arms embargo in the North African country.

Putting the latest developments in a wider context, one must admit that Berlin is clearly trying to showcase that the German role is critical not only in the field of diplomacy but also in the developments on the ground — or in this case in the developments at sea.

FGS Hamburg and the Operational Upgrade of the Mission

FGS Hamburg is a Type 124 Class Guided Missile Frigate (FFG). With a displacement of 5800 tons, FGS Hamburg comes as a considerable addition to the HS Spetsai frigate of the Hellenic Navy and the ITS San Giorgio of the Italian Navy, which are already deployed in the area. The armament of the ship consists of a Mark 41 Vertical Launching System with RIM-66 Standard medium-range surface-to-air Missiles and RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles. Four secondary missile launching systems (Mark 141 and Mark 49) can be also found in the frigate, while OTO Melara 76 mm and Rheinmetall MLG 27 mm machine guns are included in the main weapon systems of the ship. Thales and Atlas Electronic L-long rage and surface radar systems are also used by the FGS Hamburg and will provide an additional benefit to the monitoring power and capabilities of the deployed assets. Finally, 2 Naval Helicopters Westland Sea Lynx Mk.88 will be stationed on the ship for the duration of the deployment.

Apparently the addition of FGS Hamburg to the mission contributes drastically to the operational capabilities of the task force but at the same time Berlin is making a political statement, over-stressing its re-emerging role in the new status quo of the troubled Mediterranean region.

Berlin Looks into Boosting its Role in the Mediterranean

FGS Hamburg will be part of the Operation Irini for five months, with 250 navy personnel being reportedly onboard. Prior to the deployment of FGS Hamburg, Germany has been contributing to the mission with only one P-3C Orion aircraft. The decision for the deployment of the German Navy frigate comes at a moment when Berlin is trying to boost its role in the Mediterranean in several fronts.

Since early 2020, Germany has been playing a pivotal role in the developments of the Libyan conflict During the Berlin Conference, held on January 19, 2020, Chancellor Angela Merkel has hosted a meeting where all the major regional players participated. The ultimate objective of the conference has been to assist the opposing sides coming to an agreement and setting the context for the steps forward, in order peace to be established and the state-building process to start promptly. The conference has addressed the key regional and international factors that have been fueling the crisis, but at the same it highlighted the significance of the German element in international politics.

Berlin as a Gatekeeper of Regional Balance

Following the recent escalation between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea in late July, Berlin has once again emerged as a mediator and a gatekeeper of the regional balance. Germany not only intervened in the aftermath of the provocative Turkish NAVTEX but — as the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu divulged — Berlin has also organized an undisclosed trilateral meeting at some point before mid-July, among Greece, Turkey and Germany.

Last week, Germany took further steps to stress its role in the Libyan de-escalation process. Following the resignation of the UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, discussions have been taking place for the successor of the Lebanese academic and the very structure of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The US has reportedly tried to promote a specific candidate to overtake Salame’s role, but Germany responded via Dr. Christoph Heusgen, Germany’s Permanent Representative in the UN. Dr. Heusgen stressed that the UN Secretary-General should nominate the candidate without any US interference.

German Controversies Caused by Berlin’s Previous Actions

The tension in the Libyan front and in the Eastern Mediterranean also coincide with a critical moment in German politics. Since July 1 and until the end of the year, Germany holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Merkel’s close ally, Ursula von der Leyen is currently serving as the President of the European Commission, while Merkel herself is gradually moving to the end of her term without any intention to run for another one in 2021, as per her own statements. In this particular timing, both German institutions and Merkel would like to emphasize the stabilizing role of their country in a regional and international context.

On the other hand, besides the mediation efforts and military support that Berlin has been pursuing in order to secure stability in MENA and the Levant, controversy has been raised with regards to the arms deals that Germany has approved since the start of the year. According to data available from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), Berlin has proceeded forward on arm deals with some of the major foreign actors involved in the Libyan crisis, of a total value of approximately €331 million, specifically €308.2 million with Egypt, €15.1 million with Turkey and €7.7 million with the UAE, respectively. Such a move amid the escalation in the Libyan civil war and knowing the role that the aforementioned countries in the conflict hold has prompted several prominent accusations of misconduct and hypocrisy against Germany.

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Germany, France and Italy are increasing pressure to resolve the conflict in Libya, at least officially: Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Marcon and Italy’s Guiseppe Conte have stated openly that states that violate the UN arms embargo on Libya should be seriously punished. The only question now is how exactly this would happen.

Will Sanctions Be Enough to Enforce a Libya Ceasefire?

Germany, France and Italy have threatened to punish countries that fail to abide by the UN arms embargo on Libya. Chancellor Merkel, President Macron and Premier Conte said on the sidelines in a joint statement that they were ready to “consider imposing sanctions” should violations of the embargo at sea, on land or in the air continue of the EU special summit was published.

However, names of states that could be considered for sanctions are not mentioned in the declaration, even if the suspects are widely known. France, for example, has long accused Turkey of violating the arms embargo by delivering arms to the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Turkey, in turn, accuses countries such as the United Arab Emirates and France of supplying the opposite side of the Libyan National Army (LNA) with weapons.

What About Operation Irini?

The EU launched Operation Irini in spring to monitor the Libyan arms embargo. The primary aim of the military operation is to stabilize Libya and to support the UN-led political peace process. In addition to arms smuggling, the EU operation is designed to prevent illegal oil smuggling. Moreover, the Libyan Coast Guard and Navy personnel will continue to be trained to help break the business model of trafficking and trafficking networks.

If the sanctions were actually enforced they would presumably be imposed on persons or companies involved in arms deliveries to Libya in the EU framework. Those affected should fear asset freezes and EU entry bans. The punitive measures could be based on reports from the United Nations on violations of sanctions. In this way, the knowledge gained during the EU operation Irini is also transmitted to New York for evaluation.

The Reality of the Libyan War

In Libya, an internationally recognized but almost powerless government is fighting in the capital, Tripoli, and a counter-parliament in the east of the country is dominating led by General Khalifa Haftar. The latter control the oil wells in the east and recently tried to conquer Tripoli, which did not succeed. For weeks, both sides have been preparing for a fight for the city of Sirte, which is essential for oil exports and is considered key to the outcome of the war.

Both warring parties are supported logistically, financially and militarily by foreign actors. Turkey and Qatar are behind the GNA government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Haftar and the LNA are supported by Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The USA had also helped Haftar in the fight against the Islamic State.

Proxy War Intensifies

Some of the foreign countries that support one of the warring parties are becoming increasingly aggressive in the Libyan civil war. The US military recently announced that Russian mercenaries were said to have laid landmines around Tripoli. The so-called Wagner group, a private unit equipped by the Kremlin, made 800 to 1,200 fighters available to Haftar, according to UN experts. Russia, as usual, denies playing a role in the conflict.

The situation could now come to a head again, as threats have been coming from Egypt since Monday that Cairo will go straight into the conflict after Parliament approves an intervention. In keeping with this, the Haftar camp in Egypt recently called for military operations to begin in the neighboring country.

The Importance of Egypt’s Role

The parliamentary mandate only provides that the Egyptian armed forces only have the right to intervene in Libya if they see “an immediate threat to security.” In Egypt’s view, however, this seems to be the case. Turkey has invaded Libya militarily, has occupied the country and is now threatening Egypt, Cairo claims.

Last month, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt warned that an attack by Libyan government forces on Sirte was a “red line.” Haftar’s troops have held the city so far but were pushed back with Turkish help after their failed offensive on Tripoli.

Civil war has raged in Libya since the downfall of long-term ruler Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. After a temporary relaxation of the situation, the violence escalated again. In 2014, a general election failed, and numerous militias began to fight for influence. By now the violence has spiraled completely out of control. While Europe has a key interest in stabilizing the country, Russia and Turkey, in particular, are continuously attempting to subvert European effort – albeit for different reasons.

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Libya has become the global epicenter for military drones, with foreign powers deploying ever-more stealthy killers and fueling a conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives, the United Nations warned on Monday.

Jordan Has Now Deployed Drones To Libya

Speaking recently with reporters in New York, Yacoub El Hillo, the UN’s resident and humanitarian coordinator for Libya, said that Jordan was the latest nation to deploy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to try and break a stalemate in Libya’s grinding conflict.

As the costs of drones go down and their ranges increase, military commanders across the region have deployed ever-more UAVs in surveillance and assassination operations that are viewed as less risky than missions involving personnel.

Libya “is the world’s largest theater for the use of drones,” El Hillo told reporters in New York, via a video connection from the capital, Tripoli. “Everybody has something flying in the Libyan sky, it seems” he added.

Khalifa Haftar’s Drone Army

El Hillo cited reports about Jordan selling six, Chinese-made CH-4 drones to renegade commander Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which dominates the east of the war-ravaged nation.

Haftar’s LNA already had access to drones, including Chinese-made Wing Loongs and other UAVs supplied by the United Arab Emirates, as well as devices from the Russian-backed mercenaries operating in Libya.

Meanwhile, the UN-backed, Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), which has been besieged by LNA forces since last April, has received Bayraktar TB2 drones alongside a recently-dispatched Turkish deployment.

“It’s clear that Turkey has moved in a very heavy way, militarily speaking, to support the GNA and to create, as they claim, a balance in power so that the capital does not fall. So Turkey is definitely supporting and Turkey has drones flying,” said El Hillo.

Libya’s Post-2011 Civil War

Since the ouster of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, two seats of power have emerged in Libya: Haftar’s LNA in the east supported by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and others and the Tripoli-based GNA, in the west, which is backed by Turkey and the UN.

Khalifa’s LNA launched an offensive to take Tripoli last April, which led to chaos and bloodshed but stalled on the outskirts of the city – meaning commanders have turned to air power to gain a tactical advantage and break the deadlock.

Drones have been used to launch assassination hits on enemy commanders, spy over large areas of territory and to spot enemy positions and guide conventional weapons, like mortars, so they can better hit their targets.

For commanders, there are few downsides to drones. UAVs expose personnel to fewer risks, and the cost of drones has fallen massively since Middle Eastern militias like Hezbollah started getting their hands on them in the early 2000s.

Last month, the GNA said it had downed a Russian-made reconnaissance drone over Tripoli as well as a UAE-owned armed UAV in the skies above Misrata, a northwestern coastal city almost 200km east of Tripoli.

Last August, UAE-operated Chinese drones fighting for Haftar’s forces were blamed for a double strike operation that devastated a town hall meeting in south-western Libya that killed at least 45 people.

UN: Foreign Powers Should Stop Contributing to the Libya Conflict with Drones

According to El Hillo, foreign powers need to make good on pledges made in Berlin last month by bolstering an often-violated ceasefire deal, abiding by a UN arms embargo and stop sending UAVs and other hardware to Libya.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called for a European Union mission to enforce Libya’s arms embargo, including by better monitoring shipment routes into Libya.

On February 12, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for a cease-fire in Libya and tasked UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres with devising an “effective ceasefire monitoring” mechanism in what could be a precursor to a blue-helmet deployment.

According to the UN, more than 1,000 people have been killed in the clashes between Haftar’s forces and the GNA since the offensive began in April, while another 140,000 have been forced to flee their homes.

This week, El Hillo announced an appeal for $115 million to get food, medicine and other forms of support to the 900,000 Libyans who need handouts, including the 345,000 of them who are extremely vulnerable.

UN: Libyan Civilians ‘Endure Appalling Hardship and Suffering’

“We are witnessing a protracted conflict severely impacting civilians in all parts of the country on a scale that Libya has never seen before,” said El Hillo. “Tens of thousands of Libyans, in addition to an increasing number of vulnerable migrants and refugees, continue to endure appalling hardship and suffering,” he added.

As well as a large and growing number of UAVs, Libya’s armed groups also possess the “world’s largest uncontrolled ammunition stockpile ever” with between 150,000 and 200,000 tonnes of uncontrolled munitions across the country, said El Hillo.

“The increasing use of explosive weapons has resulted in unnecessary loss of life, displacement, destruction, and damage to vital civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools,” said El Hillo.

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French leader Emmanuel Macron recently said Turkey was deploying additional fighters to Libya despite the Berlin summit and the agreements that had been made by the actors involved. As a result of its actions, Turkey was exacerbating the current conflict, Macron claimed. Ankara, however, has reacted by accusing France of being “mainly responsible” for Libya’s problems and the continuous war.

Agreements Made At The Jan. 19 Berlin Conference

At the Berlin-Libya Conference on January 19, France, Turkey, and ten other countries committed themselves, inter alia, to cease any interference and support for the conflicting parties and to abide by the arms embargo. Afterwards, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke of an “important contribution” to the peace efforts.

The Roots Of The France-Turkey Disagreement

One and a half weeks after the Berlin-Libya Conference, the demonstrative unity and optimism of the participants appears to have disappeared. After having agreed upon a framework that was supposed to bring peace to Libya, France and Turkey are now accusing each other of starting the armed conflict.

President Erdogan did not keep his promise to cease interfering in Libya, Macron said in Paris on Wednesday. The latter was a “clear violation” of Erdogan’s announcements at the Libya conference in Berlin.

Turkey’s response to what must have felt like two affronts thus did not come as a surprise. France has been the main actor responsible for the problems in Libya since the beginning of the crisis in 2011, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stated on Wednesday evening.

Macron’s Accusations Against Turkey

Following a meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Macron leveled his accusation that “in the past few days we have seen Turkish ships that have accompanied Syrian militias to Libya.” According to Macron this threatens “the security of all Europeans and the inhabitants of the Sahel zone.” The French head of state also called it a “failure” that Erdogan did not keep his word.

Specifically, Macron accuses Turkey of sending Syrian fighters to Tripoli in support of the Libyan unity government under Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj. Turkey, on the other hand, sees France supporting Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar, who is fighting against Sarraj. It was “no secret” that France supports Haftar “unconditionally” to be able to influence the distribution of natural resources, Çavuşoğlu continued.

Macron Praises Turkish Historian Who Recognizes Armenian Genocide

However, it was not the only occurrence that concerned Ankara. Macron also honored and praised the Turkish historian Taner Akçam on Wednesday. Akçam is well known for his research on the Armenian genocide and who was one of the first in his country to investigate the atrocities during World War I—which historically has been a sensitive issue in relation to Turkey, as Ankara has never recognized the massacre as genocide. Akçam should be recognized for denouncing “the denial” of “organized killings” against the Armenians, Macron said during a ceremony at which Akçam received a medal for valor for his new book Killing Orders.

“You do not build a big story on a lie, and you do not build a policy on revisionism or denial,” Macron emphasized, referring to Turkey. The French President also declared April 24 to be the “national day commemorating the Armenian genocide” which further incurred Ankara’s anger.

France was the first major European country to classify the massacre of Armenians as genocide in 2001. Germany followed in June 2016, which triggered a severe diplomatic crisis with Turkey. It is estimated that up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed in the Ottoman Empire between 1915 and 1917. Turkey, however, continues to speak of significantly lower casualties and denies that it was a genocide.

L'articolo President Macron Accuses Erdogan Of Lying About Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Libya is headed towards a “more dangerous conflagration” as foreign governments renege on their promises and send more guns and soldiers to both sides in the North African country’s civil war, a United Nations peace envoy warned on Thursday.

Troops And Weapons Pouring In: Salame

Addressing the UN Security Council, head of the United Nations Support Mission In Libya (UNSMIL) Ghassan Salame described a “notable increase in heavy cargo flights” delivering “advanced equipment” to militants in eastern Libya and reinforcements to a UN-backed government being “flown into Tripoli by the thousands.”

This was despite Turkey, Russia, France, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and other foreign governments—which have been accused of arming Libyan militias—agreeing to abide by an arms embargo agreed to at the summit in Berlin earlier this month, Salame said.

“There are unscrupulous actors inside and outside Libya who cynically nod and wink towards efforts to promote peace and piously affirm their support for the UN,” said Salame, a Lebanese academic who represents UN chief Antonio Guterres in Libya.

“Meanwhile, they continue to double down on a military solution, raising the frightening specter of a full-scale conflict and further misery for the Libyan people,” Salame added.

Libya’s Descent Into Chaos

After Libya’s strongman leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown in 2011, the oil-exporting nation spiraled into chaos, with a patchwork of militias across the country and two rival administrations—one in the capital, Tripoli, and another in the eastern city of Benghazi.

Turkey supports the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, which is headed by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, while the UAE and Egypt back renegade commander Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army (LNA) controls much of the south and east of the country.

“The warring parties have continued to receive a sizeable amount of advanced equipment, fighters and advisors from foreign sponsors, in brazen violation of the arms embargo as well as of the pledges made by representatives of these countries in Berlin,” said Salame.

Salame described an uptick in cargo planes touching down at Benina Airport and Al-Khadim Airbase in eastern Libya and unloading weapons for Haftar’s LNA forces. Turkey is also understood to have sent thousands of Syrian mercenaries to bolster GNA troops around Tripoli, deployed warships in the seas around the capital and set up advanced air defense systems across the west.

Salame addressed the 15-nation body from Brazzaville, in the Republic of the Congo, where African Union leaders were meeting in an effort to play a bigger role in a conflict that is driving up tensions between world powers.

US Denounces ‘Toxic Foreign Interference’ In Libya

Kelly Craft, Washington’s ambassador to the world body, blasted the “toxic foreign interference” that is seeing the deployment of foreign fighters and mercenaries and the “delivery of weapons, ammunition, and advanced systems.” Council members met against a backdrop of mounting violence in Libya, where Haftar’s military offensive to wrest control of Tripoli has forced some 149,000 civilians to flee their homes since it began last April. In recent days, dozens of soldiers were killed during clashes between LNA and GNA forces around Abu Grain, south of the northwestern city of Misrata—a battle that saw a rebel drone shot out of the skies, according to reports.

‘Silence The Guns’

Speaking with journalists in New York, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric described worrying numbers of civilians being killed by shelling around Tripoli, warned that “things are not going in the right direction” and urged both sides to “silence the guns”.

In Libya, the UN’s refugee agency UNHCR on Thursday said it was suspending operations at a refugee center in Tripoli for fear that it would become a target in a war that has already seen migrant lockups being hit in deadly airstrikes. UNHCR’s Libya head Jean-Paul Cavalieri said the troubled Gathering and Departure Facility (GDF), which housed and protected some 1,000 migrants who were otherwise vulnerable to torture and forced labor, had been forced to close.

“Unfortunately UNHCR was left with no choice but to suspend work at the (GDF) after learning that training exercises, involving police and military personnel, are taking place just a few meters away from units housing asylum seekers and refugees,” Cavalieri said in a statement. “We fear that the entire area could become a military target, further endangering the lives of refugees, asylum seekers, and other civilians,” the statement added.

The closure of the facility, combined with the military buildup and the increase in violence on the ground, add pressure to an already-tense situation that in recent days saw France and Turkey fight out a war of words over Libya. French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday accused his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of breaking promises he made in Berlin on January 19, by sending warships and Syrian mercenaries to Syria. Ankara retaliated, with Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy accusing France of being chiefly responsible for Libya’s woes by giving “unconditional support to Haftar in order to have a say regarding natural resources.”

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Libya’s neighbouring countries have rejected regional and international interference in the restive state, calling instead for the Libyans to reach a settlement to the conflict in their country and solve their problems.

Following a meeting of the foreign ministers of Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Chad, Mali, and Sudan in the Algerian capital, Algiers, on January 23, the same countries said that dialogue between Libya’s warring parties would be the only good means to bring about an end to the problems in Libya.

“We do not speak for other countries, but Algeria is against any foreign interference in Libya’s affairs,” Algerian Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum said at a press briefing following the meeting. “This foreign interference has caused the situation to become more complicated in Libya.”

The largest gathering of the foreign ministers of Libya’s neighbouring states, the Algiers meeting is the first to take place in a year.

Libya’s neighbouring states Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia created a coordination and consultation mechanism on the war-torn state soon after it descended into lawlessness in 2011, after the downfall of the Muammar Gaddafi regime.

The mechanism aimed at coordinating their own policies on Libya and preventing the rampant turmoil in it from seeping out of it and into their own territories.

However, inappropriate political conditions in Algeria and Tunisia in the past year prevented the enforcement of the mechanism and consequently the meetings of the three countries’ foreign ministers.

The meeting also comes three days after a conference was held in Berlin on Libya. Those meeting in Berlin were those moving the strings on the Libyan stage, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Most importantly, the meeting comes only days before Erdogan visits the Algerian capital for talks with its president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

The Turkish president, the principal backer of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), has been trying to sway Algeria and Tunisia to join his camp.

Erdogan has sent hundreds of Turkey-loyal Syrian mercenaries to Libya to fight side by side with the militias of the GNA against the Libyan National Army (LNA).

The army – made up of some of the Gaddafi era generals and thousands of Libyan volunteers – has been trying to capture Libyan capital Tripoli and kick the GNA and its militias out it since April last year. Its march towards the Libyan capital gained a new momentum, following the signing of security cooperation and maritime boundary delimitation deals between the GNA and Turkey in November last year.

On December 25, the Turkish president visited Tunisia and tried to convince its president, Kais Saied, to allow Turkish military planes, carrying troops and military equipment to land in Tunisian airports before entering Libya.

However, afraid of needless involvement in the Libyan quagmire, Saied said his country would not be part of any military action in the neighbouring state.

Erdogan will most likely make the same request in Algeria, which shares an extended border with Libya.

However, Boukadoum’s remarks on January 23 portend Algeria’s position on the same issue and its reply to Erdogan when he visits it.

Boukadoum called on countries backing rival Libyan parties to abide by a United Nations arms embargo on Libya.

“We also call on the United Nations to work to enforce this embargo,” Boukadoum said.

He added that his country would work to bring Libyan rival parties together.

Boukadoum said there is goodwill on the part of all Libyans and a desire for peacefully settling the conflict.

“This is a Libyan-Libyan issue,” Boukadoum said. “We have to work hard to end this plight which affects us directly. We have to raise our voices so that people will listen to us.”

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The Libya conference in Berlin has reached a consensus between all parties involved: a militaristic solution to the conflict is impossible. However, the path towards peace will not be an easy one. Nonetheless, the EU and Germany are inclined to play an essential role in facilitating a long-lasting solution.

On Sunday, all protagonists were present, including President Erdogan, President Putin, Sarraj, and Haftar. All committed to upholding the arms embargo and ending military support for the conflicting parties. Any violation against these points is supposed to get sanctioned.

After the summit and the agreement, Germany’s Foreign Minister Maas was confident that it was the first step to end the conflict and open a political process for peace, while Chancellor Merkel spoke of a comprehensive agreement towards a peaceful solution under the umbrella of the United Nations. Both also emphasized that the summit was only the start of a long process. “I have no illusions that this will, of course, still be a difficult journey,” said Merkel, while Maas said that the summit only provided “the keys” to resolving the conflict in the long-term.

While the result is a positive step in the right direction, it also raises the question of how the implementation of the decisions will be monitored and safeguarded and what the sanctions for violation could look like. For this reason, the foreign ministers discussed the results in Brussels on Monday, while also attempting to establish Europe’s contribution to the crisis further.

After the meeting, EU’s Joseph Borrell stated that the EU countries had agreed to refocus its efforts in the Mediterranean Sea towards the adherence of the UN arms embargo in Libya. As so often within the EU, details on what precisely this entails were infinitesimal. However, Borrell stated the issue would be discussed in more depth over the upcoming weeks in order to facilitate a coherent solution swiftly.

However, indications suggest that the EU could deploy military to Libya that would be a task with monitoring the process and the ceasefire. On Saturday, Borrell had already suggested the latter. His statement on Monday did not recant his original idea but did not provide any clarity either.

Nonetheless, European member states such as Italy and Greece have already pledged their commitment to sending soldiers. Other foreign ministers did not rule out a deployment of troops either. Europe’s proclivity for a potential military operation is not a surprise nor an act of human kindness. It is, first and foremost, an attempt to avoid yet another migration crisis on the continent. Thus, a stable and peaceful Libya remains on top of the EU’s agenda these days.

However, as Germany’s Defense Minister Kramp-Karrenbauer rightfully stated, a sustainable ceasefire and lasting security will not merely occur automatically. The deployment of personnel is the next necessary and logical step in the process.

Given its initiative so far, Germany would be forced to participate in such an operation also. Kramp-Karrenbauer has stated that Germany was ready to evaluate what this contribution could exactly look like, however.

However, Chancellor Merkel has already dampened the idea and warned that one should not discuss the next but one step before the first one, meaning, the circumstances, must be appropriate and security guaranteed. It leaves little doubt that Merkel will not risk casualties amongst German nor EU soldiers on a peace mission in Libya. Moreover, Maas also rebuffed the idea at this point, as the current fragile ceasefire had to become a permanent one first.

The issue with these statements is obvious. With Europe remaining reluctant to pledge its commitment for a military mission at this stage, the steps now are taken will become obsolete with no presence to monitor the agreements immediately.

Time is of the essence, however, as all Libya summit participants and the EU assured to meet again during the first half of February. Till then, Germany, in particular, will have to display that its leadership role in this matter is more than lip service and a diplomatic charade, but that it will hold when the chips are on the table, i.e., action follows of diplomacy.

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Over the past weekend, Chancellor Merkel travelled to Russia for a conversation with President Putin about the current crises as well as future bilateral relations that would benefit both parties tremendously. For Germany, it comes with a high price tag, however.

Merkel’s last visit to the Kremlin is an almost distant memory; however, the current geopolitical developments made a meeting a necessity. On an increasingly unpredictable world stage and surrounded by, at times, erratic interlocutors, both Merkel and Putin did not forget what they have in each other. It was thus the reanimation of a relationship that has been through highs and lows, but more or less amicable on a personal level – even throughout the international outcry over the Crimea annexation and subsequent sanctions against Russia.

After a recent diplomatic dispute over an alleged contract killing in Berlin, however, the relationship appeared to deteriorate once again. Germany’s federal prosecutor suspects that government agencies in Russia or the Chechnya republic ordered the murder. In his first reaction, Putin referred to the killed individual as a “murderer” and “bandit.” Then Putin first accused the German government of not having extradited the man, despite continuous requests, something that has been confirmed as a downright falsehood by now.

Nonetheless, when Merkel arrived in Moscow last weekend, both sides made a noticeable effort to conduct the trip as amicably as possible. However, the personal relationship between the two is not the reason. Rather their respective plans for future cooperation and mutual benefits a stable relationship between Moscow and Berlin provides.

Putin, for one, communicated why Germany was so crucial for Russia, which is primarily based on trade. Germany remains Russia’s second most important trading partner behind China. Moreover, the overall German investment in Russia in the previous year recorded $20 billion.

Germany remains the economic powerhouse of Europe and the fourth most potent economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP. It is thus not a surprise that Russia seeks to not only benefit from it but participate in it. However, it is not merely Putin’s rhetoric that is proving his vision. It is his actions also. It was thus no coincidence that essential figures of Russian and German economic life participated in the meeting, such as Gazprom Deputy Chairman Miller, Russias Minister of Economic Affairs Oreshkin, and the head of the economic and financial department in the German Chancellery.

While the current economic cooperation between Germany and Russia is primarily about the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, even more, significant plans appear to be on the horizon, given the presence of these marquise names.

However, it is not only Russia, who hopes to be a beneficiary in this relationship and future projects. Though, for Germany, these benefits are primarily a part of foreign and security policies.

So far, Germany has appeared alongside France in the talks in Normandy format since 2014, attempting to facilitate lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia. Now, however, Germany is trying to facilitate peace in Libya. In the so-called “Berlin Process,” Germany seeks to mediate between the Libyan government under Prime Minister Fayiz as-Sarraj and the insurgent General Haftar.

At the meeting with Merkel last weekend, Putin assured her that he would support her initiative, which is crucial if any progress is anticipated. Putin possesses creed in the Middle East, a region in which Germany does hardly have an identity. With Putin stating the Berlin Process was a “good step in the right direction,” Merkel received a quasi blessing from the Kremlin to move to the next stage.

This next stage occurred when Merkel sent out official invites for a meeting in Berlin this Sunday, including high ranking names such as Mike Pompeo and Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov.

It is not the first time, however, that both have displayed unanimity. The same applied in 2015 regarding the Vienna Atomic Energy Agreement. With the issue being pressing right now, Merkel emphasized in Moscow that Germany seeks to keep the agreement with Iran alive. All diplomatic channels would have to be used for this as Iran should not get nuclear weapons. Putin occurred and pledged his commitment in favor of the continuation of the 2015 agreement.

All in all, the meeting of Merkel and Putin in Moscow displayed a surprising degree of unity. Merkel, who has openly stated that with the shift of US interests in the world, Germany had to become more self-reliant and explore new avenues. Whether Putin can be Germany’s best new bet must be doubted, however. The latter has shown that his geopolitical interests are purely governed by Russian advancement. A dependence on the Kremlin, particularly in terms of solving global crises, can thus not be the way forward for Germany.

L'articolo Merkel’s Visit in Moscow: Putin Opportunity and Germany’s Detriment? proviene da InsideOver.

On a surprise move, Khalifa Haftar has visited Athens on Thursday 17 January, late evening.The next morning General Haftar met the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikos Dendias, before heading to the Hellenic Parliament, to meet Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The upcoming talks in Berlin have been at the top of the agenda between the Libyan strongman and Mr. Mitsotakis. Albeit the wide and enthusiastic coverage the visit has received from Greek media, there has been no official joint statement by General Haftar and the Greek side, once the talks have been completed.

Mr. Dendias has tried to highlight the key points of the meeting in an interview he gave on Friday night, 17 January, to the Greek state-owned broadcaster ERT. According to the Greek Minister, Athens would pursue – by all means – the establishment of an unconditional and open-ended ceasefire and at the same time the cancellation of the two Memoranda of Understanding between GNA and Turkey. Mr. Haftar is allegedly totally agreeing with the Greek pledges for the cancellation of the MoUs, a claim that makes absolute sense, considering that LNA wants to limit any Turkish involvement in the Libyan front. Mr. Dendias could not confirm if and to what extent General Haftar will put on the table the cancellation of MoUs, as a necessary condition for the smooth progress of the negotiations, during the Berlin summit tomorrow. It has also been stressed out that Greece is not seeing the current situation in the eastern Mediterranean as a zero-sum game between Ankara and Athens, and the ideal solution should guarantee benefits for all the sides involved.

At the same time Greek PM, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, stated that the absence of Greece in the Berlin summit is a sad fact and Germany has overlooked the crucial role of Greece, as a factor of stability in the region. Mr. Mitsotakis clarified that Greece was willing to veto any decision with regards to the Libyan crisis, that would not reject the validity of the two MoUs between Tripoli and Ankara. A statement that has been probably a part of the Government’s communication policy, considering that even if Athens tries to veto any decision about Libya in the level of EU foreign ministers, the impact on the outcome of the process would be minimal. Besides, we highly doubt that Greece could proceed to vetoing any such plans, in the first place.

Back to Haftar’s presence in Athens, we should look at the timing and the implications of the visit. Greece has been struggling to establish herself as an equal negotiating party on the Libyan process, especially after the Turkish latest moves, that impact directly the Greek vital national interests. Athens failure to secure a position in the table of negotiations in Berlin had a significant political backlash for the government, which had to be turned around the soonest.

Mr. Dendias has visited Libya and met with General Haftar in late December 2019 and expressed the Greek support to the LNA efforts. The two parties have agreed to hold another meeting in Athens, and the current timing could not be better for Greece. The absence of a joint statement and the limited comments from the Greek side about what has been discussed, indicates that little progress has been made in terms of promoting the Greek demands against the Turkish provocations in the region. On the other hand, the Greek major media -most of them friendly to the current administration- have presented the event, as an unprecedented Greek success that could constraint the EU and Turkish options and the only possible outcome from the Sunday negotiations would be the most favorable one for Greece. Briefly Haftar’s meeting has been sold to the Greek public, as a game –  changing development, speculating that Haftar is planning to decisively promote the Greek positions in Berlin. Apparently this approach is ignoring the fact that Haftar forces are waging war for almost six years in Libya, and the top priority for the General is to consolidate his power all over the country and secure his very survival.

Assessing the current power balance in-country and the ongoing international developments related to Libya, we believe that Haftar’s role will be considerably upgraded, opening the road to the General to eventually control the country. The Greek side is relying on this scenario to capitalize on the potential gains, assuming that things will play out well for the Libyan General. However, we should always consider that several regional powers have also supported Haftar, including Egypt, UAE and allegedly Israel. These powers have provided much more substantial support long before Greece and will certainly seek to use the potential Haftar’s prevalence in their best interest.

L'articolo Implications of Haftar’s Visit in Greece proviene da InsideOver.