There are growing signs that Syria could soon be reinstated into the Arab League after its membership in the organization was suspended in 2011 under tremendous pressure from the USA and its allies. Since then so much has changed in Syria itself and the region that has tipped the balance in favor of President Bashar al Assad and his allies in the war that ravaged the country for nine years.

The United Arab Emirates restored diplomatic ties with Damascus and reopened its embassy in the Syrian capital last year. Bahrain did the same one day later, and Saudi Arabia, bogged down in an absurd war in Yemen and sensing Turkish expansive schemes in Syria and the region, was expected to follow suit, but ⁠— under pressure from hawks in the Trump administration ⁠— has delayed such a step for the time being. The former deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassem Bin Jabr and his Emir, Hamad Bin Khalifa, have been removed after their plot to remove the Assad regime failed abysmally. The Syrian army has liberated most of the country and controls all but parts of the northeast and Idlib.

From Suspension to Reinstatement: Indications of Syria’s Comeback

Amr Moussa, former Secretary General of the Arab League and former Egyptian Foreign Minister, has indicated in a statement made last week that Syria’s return to the organization could happen sooner than later after 9 years of suspension at the outset of the conflict as part of the so-called Arab Spring, which has destroyed and sabotaged many Arab nations and economies from Libya to Syria and Lebanon under the false flag of democracy and reform. Syria’s readmission into the Arab League has been on the Arab agenda for a couple of years now. Iraq, Algeria and Lebanon are among the strongest advocates of Syria’s readmission to the League of which Syria was a founding and active member.

The majority of Syrians ⁠— feeling betrayed and conspired upon by the Arab League ⁠— stand against such a return, and social media outlets are full of such sentiments. At the last meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York, the current Secretary General of the Arab League, Ahmad Abul Gheit, tried to make a point as cameras were rolling, by warmly welcoming the Syrian Foreign Minister and his delegation as they came face to face in the corridors before a UN meeting.The hugs, kisses and cordial remarks by Abul Gheit were met with a cold-shoulder by Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mikdad, who ridiculed Abul Gheit’s remarks.

The Syrian Government believes that the Arab League’s Secretary General has been instrumental in the diplomatic campaign against Damascus, and has taken a negative stance against Syria and its reinstatement into the League.

Before the last Arab summit meeting hosted by Tunisia on 31 March 2019, a consultative gathering was arranged in Amman on January 31, and representatives from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait attended the meeting to discuss returning Syria to the League, but the meeting ended with no agreement.  Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Abul Gheit announced later that there was no consensus on readmitting Syria, thus confirming some member countries’ unwillingness and reluctance to let bygones be bygones.

Winners and Losers: Should Syria be Reinstated into the Arab League?

Although the Syrian leadership will be the main beneficiary of such a major diplomatic and political victory, Damascus, feeling confident and triumphant, insists that it has its own conditions for going back to the Arab League. There’s no love lost between the Assad and the millions of Syrians who have suffered the woes of war for nine long and intolerable years of war and destruction with “brotherly” Arab nations.

Therefore, Syria’s return to the Arab League would signal much more than a mere diplomatic and political gesture for all the parties involved. It would contain a clear message that a new geopolitical map is in the making, with Damascus and Assad at its core.

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The participating countries are entering the final stretch for the Berlin Conference on the Libyan Civil War. The German initiative to host a conference, aiming to limit the long-lasting violence and unrest in Libya has been scheduled for this Sunday, 19 January 2020. Fifteen parties could participate in the conference, after being invited by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the German Minister of Foreign affairs, Heiko Maas.

In addition to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (United States, Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China, France, and the United Kingdom), requests to attend have been sent to Italy, Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, UAE and Republic of Congo. Representatives from the United Nations, the European Union, the African Union, and the Arab League will also take part in the process.

Turkey; not really “internationally isolated”

Turkey has been engaging in some notable political manoeuvring over the last few months, with regards to Libya. Erdogan has been openly expressing his support for the Tripoli government and Fayez al-Sarraj, not only through diplomatic channels but also by providing substantial support on the ground. The talks around Turkish military equipment shipped to Tripoli amidst an active arms embargo and the deployment of Turkish troops to Libya have prompted wide controversy, fueling international criticism. Yet here is Turkey, being one of the main players in the peace negotiations in Berlin.

To the contrary of what Greek sources, and especially the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikos Dendias, are trying to convince the public, Turkey is not internationally marginalized at all. Despite the provocative Turkish actions in the Mediterranean, that have been occasionally condemned by the EU and the States, Ankara is utilizing an ingenious, albeit risky, foreign policy using a well-balanced combination of political and military means.

The cooperation with Sarraj and – according to Tayyip Erdogan – the deployment of Turkish forces in Libya has created a situation on the ground, where Turkey is a de facto key actor, in all the processes around the Libyan Crisis. Considering the limited territory under Sarraj’s control and Haftar’s backing from Russia, Egypt and the Gulf countries, it is under question if the Turkish involvement could eventually tip the balance in favor of GNA in the case of a decisive escalation; in fact, it is dubious if Turkey was planning to engage in full battle against LNA, in the first place. According to a recent statement from the Turkish Vice President, Fuat Oktay, the large-scale deployment of Turkish Armed Forces in Libya, could be avoided, should the crisis deescalate. In a closer look, this could be just a Turkish well-played waggle, in order political leverage to be achieved in Libya through force projection; so far it has played out quite well for Ankara.

Greece; missing the point once again

Moving to the developments in Greece, things are rather discouraging for Hellenic Diplomacy and the Hellenic Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Both Greek Alternate Minister of Foreign Affairs, Militiadis Varvitsiotis and Government Spokesman Stelios Petsas stated in the previous days that Athens has been persistently pushing for the country’s participation in the Berlin Conference; as it turns out the Greek efforts have been far from fruitful. In the latest statement issued by Berlin, the Memorandum of Understanding, or at least the bilateral agreements over the maritime borders, between Turkey and Libya -the very reason that Greece had to participate- would not be discussed in the Conference and is not deemed relevant to the current peace talks. In this respect, all the EU countries that are not essentially involved in the Libyan Crisis would be represented by the EU delegate, according to the German side.

The German approach is candidly downgrading Athens’ international standing, especially when considering that Greek vital interests are at stake, depending on the developments in the Libyan front. The current situation should be primarily attributed to the failure of the Greek diplomacy to secure a position in the Conference, and secondarily to the unfair judgment of the German Chancellor. The situation is just as disappointing within Greece.

All the opposition parties have missed the point once again and seem unable to understand how important this matter for the country is. Such a critical issue has been treated as an opportunity to criticize the government and eventually has turned into a pointless political debate between the ruling party and the opposition. It’s about time for the Greek side -including parties all across the political spectrum- to carefully reconsider their approach to foreign policy issues and adopt a more responsible and unified stance. For now, all eyes are on Berlin; the decisions to be taken on Sunday, will have a significant impact not only in war-tormented Libya but also in the wider region, definitely including Athens and Ankara.

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The Arab League has denounced approval by the Turkish parliament of a bill that allows Ankara to send troops to Libya.

In a statement on December 2, the pan-Arab organization said it would continue to offer backing to the political process in Libya on the road to a negotiated settlement to its crisis.

“The Arab League underscores the importance of stopping foreign interference in Libyan affairs,” the league said.

Turkish troop deployment

The statement came only hours after the Turkish parliament approved the bill, which was submitted by Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In his letter to the Turkish parliament, Erodgan said the deployment of Turkish troops in Libya would protect Turkish interests in North Africa and offer support to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA).

The expected troop deployment came in the light of a security cooperation deal the GNA signed with Ankara on November 28. This was one of two deals which also included another on the delimitation of maritime boundaries between Turkey and Libya.

Erdogan said the security cooperation pact allows his country to send troops to Libya at the request of the GNA. The GNA requested Turkish military support on December 19.

Escalation of tensions

Turkey’s deployment of troops in Libya will exacerbate tensions in North Africa and in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Libya now has a fully-fledged civil war, in which Islamist militias affiliated to the GNA and backed by Turkey are pitted against the Libyan National Army (LNA), which contains some of the military commanders that served under the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

The LNA controls almost three-quarters of Libya, including the country’s eastern part, its south and some parts of western Libya.

The GNA is locked in Tripoli, some parts of Misurata and some parts of western Libya.

The LNA is now marching towards Tripoli and has succeeded in overrunning some of the districts of the Libyan capital. It wants to significantly reverse the military situation in Libya before Erdogan can send any formidable military support to the GNA and its Islamist militias.

Opposition

By deploying its troops in Libya, Turkey will be part of this civil war, but it will be there to back one party, namely the GNA, against the other: the LNA.

Some of the Turkish lawmakers who debated Erdogan’s troop deployment request on December 2 expressed fears from this.

One of these lawmakers even asked about why Turkish troops would be sent to fight in the deserts of Libya.

There is also regional opposition to Turkish military presence in Libya, including from Egypt, Greece and Cyprus which see in the planned Turkish troop deployment an increasing of tensions in the region.

Arab League

The Arab League’s December 2 condemnation of the Turkish parliament’s approval of the expected Turkish troop deployment came only days after the league called for preventing foreign interference in Libyan affairs.

At an emergency meeting at the league headquarters in Cairo on December 31, the league said foreign interference in Libyan affairs would ease the relocation of extremists and terrorists from some conflict zones, including Syria, to Libya.

It expressed concern about what it described as “military escalation” in Libya.

“This escalation makes the Libyan crisis worse and threatens the security of Libya’s neighboring countries,” it added.

Limits

On December 2, the Libyan parliament, which is based in the northeastern Libyan city of Tobruk, called on the league to ask its member states to activate a 1950 common defense pact between Arab states.

Nevertheless, the league’s ability to take action in this regard is very limited, given rifts among Arab states on what is happening in Libya, analysts said.

The league has 22 member states, but these states do not share the same view on developments in Libya, they added.

“Some of the states inherently back Turkey, like in the case of Qatar,” said Libyan affairs specialist, Abdel Sattar Heteita. “Other states support opposing parties in the conflict.”

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(Cairo) The Arab League has finally stepped into the Sudanese crisis, after a long silence and absence. Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Abul Gheit paid a visit to Sudanese capital, Khartoum on June 16, hoping to turn his pan-Arab organization into a main player on the Sudanese stage, for the first time since the downfall of the regime of Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir on April 11.

Abul Gheit met several Sudanese political figures, including representatives of the Freedom and Chance Forces Coalition, the main opposition group in Sudan. He also met leaders of the Transitional Military Council, including council head Abdul Fattah al-Burhan.

The visit of the Arab League’s chief to Sudan is a turning point, not for the Sudanese political crisis, but for the league itself. Over the past years, the league with 22 member states, preferred to take a backseat and let international players manage the situation in Arab countries. This was and continues to be particularly so in Arab states that burst in violence and unrest since the eruption of the series of uprisings that came later to be known as the “Arab Spring”.

The Cairo-based pan-Arab body, which was founded in 1945, plays no role whatsoever in Syria where the Syrian army fights a long list of terrorist organizations, in many cases considered as national opposition. Russia, the US, Iran and Turkey do. The league plays no role whatsoever in Libya where two armies and two governments fight each other, opening the door for major international terrorist groups, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and al-Qaeda, to take root and grow. Libya’s neighboring countries: Turkey, Italy, France, Egypt and Russia do.

The league remained silent all through the months of protests that led to Bashir’s ousting by the army in April. Its silence in the months that followed the downfall of the longtime Sudanese ruler was an opportunity for a large number of regional and international powers to play a role on the Sudanese stage.

Abul Gheit’s visit to Khartoum followed a visit to the Sudanese capital by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Ethiopia’s mediation is bearing fruit after a representative of the Ethiopian premier had succeeded in convincing the Sudanese opposition to suspend a state of nationwide civil disobedience and accept to return to the negotiating table with Sudan’s military rulers.

Negotiations between the two sides came to a screeching halt on June 3, after dozens of Sudanese civilians were killed in the dispersal by the army of a major protest camp outside the army command in central Khartoum.

Ethiopia says it will hand the Sudanese opposition and the military council a proposal for solving the Sudanese crisis within the coming few hours, or days. If they accept to move ahead with settling the crisis, Sudanese parties will sign an agreement on the formation of an interim civilian authority and a sovereign council to rule Sudan, Ethiopia said. Following his meeting with Burhan, Abul Gheit said his organization would work to ensure Sudan’s stability.

“We want to make sure that the crisis in Sudan will be settled in a political manner,” the Arab League chief said. He added that he felt optimistic about settling the Sudanese crisis. Nevertheless, the Arab League does not seem to have an initiative for solving the crisis or bringing Sudanese rivals back to the negotiating table. Abul Gheit was empty-handed when he visited Khartoum. He also left it empty-handed.

Observers also say that the league will face so many hindrances on the road if it wants to play a role in Sudan. One of the hindrances, they add, is that few in Sudan have confidence in an organization that fails Arab peoples, especially at their times of need.

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