President Donald Trump recently indicated he wants a withdrawal of the remaining US soldiers in Afghanistan by Christmas. “We should have the small remaining number of our brave men and women serving in Afghanistan at home by Christmas!” the president tweeted on Wednesday, without any additional details. The Taliban welcomed the president’s announcement as an “important step.” 

Accelerating the Planned Troop Withdrawal

Facilitating the president’s ambitious plan would significantly accelerate the withdrawal agreement of troops between the US and the Taliban. In the past few years, Trump has repeatedly stated his proclivity to cease America’s “endless wars” and bring home the troops. The president’s statement on Wednesday surprised even US officials, however. At the beginning of August this year, the US Department of Defense announced a reduction of US soldiers in Afghanistan from the current 8,600 to 5,000 by November. 

Based on the agreement signed with the radical Islamic Taliban on February 29, the United States will gradually withdraws its armed forces from the Hindu Kush until mid-2021. In return, the Taliban have agreed to conduct peace negotiations with the government in Kabul. The negotiations started on September 12 in Qatar. However, the talks lack progress, and the Taliban are continuing their attacks, which have repeatedly killed Afghan security forces and civilians.

What Does Washington Want?

Washington also demanded a guarantee that Afghanistan would not become a sanctuary for terrorists from all over the world, similar to the Taliban’s previous reign. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, yielded the invasion of the US armed forces in Afghanistan as part of the Global War on Terror. The United States and its allies defeated the Taliban, who gave shelter to the terrorist network Al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden and liberated large areas of the nation from the extremists.

After 19 years of US troop presence in Afghanistan, Trump’s plan of withdrawal is now a bipartisan consensus including on the part of his challenger Joe Biden.  

The president ran on the promise to bring home the troops first in his campaign against Hillary Clinton. His current campaign also emphasizes withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq. However, Trump failed to deliver his campaign promise, particularly in the case of Afghanistan and the announcement on Wednesday, and indeed the confusion it caused, points to this being a reckless campaign maneuver without any actual plans for facilitation. 

Fluctuating US Troop Levels in Afghanistan

When President Barack Obama left office in January 2017, around 8,400 US soldiers remained in Afghanistan. In his early years in office, Obama dramatically increased the US presence, from just over 30,000 to more than 100,000 at its peak in 2011. Contrary to President Trump’s election rhetoric, his administration increased the troops compared to Obama’s 8,400. It needed the February agreement with the Taliban that the US military reduced its number in Afghanistan from 12,000 to now around 8,600. 

The president’s remarks appear particularly ill-advised given the occurrences the past weekend. Two bomb attacks killed at least 18 people in Afghanistan. Authorities announced that 13 people – including three civilians – were killed in northern Sar-e Pul province on Saturday when an explosive device exploded next to a passing vehicle. Three soldiers were also wounded. An hour-long firefight with the Taliban preceded the casualties.

Moreover, an explosive device recently went off in the southern Helmand province roadside when a bus drove by. According to the Afghan government, at least five people died. The government blamed the Taliban for the attack.

The situation in Afghanistan remains highly volatile, and the peace talks continue to stall. The US President’s comments, purely for election purposes, cannot be helpful. The fact that the Taliban expressed support for the president’s ideas is a warning sign and one ought to be extremely cautious about this kind of development, particularly in the White House.

Moreover, the Afghanistan engagement is not a partisan issue in the US. The upside of the president’s pernicious remarks is thus infinitesimal at best. The downside is that this statement results in even less leverage for Qatar’s intra-Afghan negotiation: considering the Afghan government is dealing with extremists it is sufficiently complex already without the president’s self-serving and reckless tweets. 

L'articolo Trump Suggests Early Troop Removal from Afghanistan proviene da InsideOver.

Afghans are happy this week. They can leave their houses for seven days without the fear of an airstrike or a bomb attack. Since 2001, they have seen only two instances where the fighting has stopped even for a brief period of time.

Afghanistan’s Seven Day Test Period of Reduction in Violence

Three days ago on Friday, the Afghan and the US forces, and the Taliban agreed to a period of reduction in violence. The reduction in hostilities is aimed at paving way for signing a peace deal between the United States and the Taliban.

Announcing the period of reduction in violence, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo set successful implementation of reduction in violence as a precondition for a peace deal with the Taliban. The Taliban also agreed to the conditions. The spokesperson for the insurgent group said the two sides will invite senior representatives to sign the deal on February 29.

Trump: It’s ‘Time to Come Home’

Commenting on the imminent deal, Trump said that it is “time to come home. They want to stop. You know, they’ve been fighting a long time. They’re tough people. We’re tough people. But after 19 years, that’s a long time.”

It seems the US and the Taliban are desperate to sign a deal. Moreover, the two sides are willing to make compromises towards that end. But many wonder what happens after the deadline ends on February 29, and the two sides sign a deal? What guarantees do US have that the Taliban will not resume to violence once the deal is signed?

The analysts argue that the withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan may allow the US to declare itself free of the commitments in the country but it will not be successful in securing peace in the war-torn country. It also seems unlikely that the country will quickly see any domestic compromises and agreements that will be acceptable to all Afghans.

The Difficulty of Achieving Peace in Afghanistan

Given the lack of consensus among how to move forward in towards a political settlement in the post-US troop withdrawal Afghanistan, the country is likely to remain divided. Peace in post-peace deal Afghanistan is likely to be a journey spanning decades as the country’s political institutions are likely to take a long time to develop capabilities to solve conflicts in a political manner.

Immediately after the US-Taliban deal, Afghanistan will brace for an intra-Afghan dialogue amongst various stakeholders: the Taliban, the political leadership and the country’s security forces. The dialogue will revolve around developing a consensus among Afghan stakeholders to agree towards securing a political solution.

But there are a lot of challenges. The recently-declared results by Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) have been challenged by political parties. The IEC said that the incumbent president Ashraf Ghani secured 50.6 per cent of the total votes and emerged victorious in the elections that were held last year. His main rival, Abdullah Abdullah rejected the results calling them biased complicating the political deadlock further. Abdullah even said that he, with help from allies, will form his own government at the center.

Taliban are Poised for a Re-entrance to Afghan Politics

But in post-deal Afghanistan, these are not the only political players. The Taliban will also vie to increase its political clout in the country. And given the insurgent group’s reluctance to negotiate with Ghani government in the past, it seems highly likely that they will seek re-elections. Afghanistan is already divided along ethnic, geographic and political lines with disputes usually settled through violent solutions. And with the US exit and Taliban’s inclusion in to the country’s politics, the situation is expected to exacerbate further.

For Afghans the US-Taliban deal symbolizes a glimmer of peace, but the inter-Afghan negotiations that come after will take a long time before any meaningful compromise can be reached among the domestic stakeholders.

L'articolo Afghan Perspectives on the US-Taliban Peace Deal proviene da InsideOver.

In September 2019, a car bombing that killed 12 people in Kabul, the Afghan capital, led U.S. Presence Trump to call off talks with the Taliban. Another car packed with explosives drove to a private security guard’s convoy in Kabul in November, 2019, leaving 12 people, including children, dead and 20 others wounded. With overall waning combat in the Afghan war, Kabul and other major Afghan cities have gone through significantly less violence since then, but Afghan villages have not seen a decrease: they have been burning in war.

Ferocious Levels Of Violence In Rural Afghanistan

On February 7, the Afghan intelligence agency announced they had killed at least 21 Taliban fighters and number of Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistani fighters in Lal Por district of eastern Nangarhar province. The Taliban claimed also claimed an attack on Afghan security outposts in Shur Tapa district of northern Balkh province left 30 government forces killed and wounded.

U.S. diplomats and Taliban representatives have been talking about “reduction of violence” in areas like Shur Tapa and Lal Por districts that experienced widespread combat between the Afghan government and the Taliban, where scores of personals from both sides are killed and wounded, trapping civilians in the middle.

“[The Afghan government and the Taliban] continued their fighting in countryside, where it attracts less public attention and the government and the Taliban can make more damage to each other,” said Mohammad Arif Rahmani, a member of the Afghan Parliament’s national security committee.

“I think, meanwhile, reduction of violence in cities could be seen as a green light by the Taliban for a political settlement.”

What About The Afghan Ceasefire?

The Afghan government and U.S. diplomats demanded ceasefire to move forward peace talks with the Taliban.  In January, the Taliban had offered a 10-day “reduction of violence”, which the U.S. found inadequate. The Afghan government—which has been excluded from U.S.-Taliban talks—rejected the “reduction of violence,” calling it meaningless.

The Afghan government has been calling for nothing less than a comprehensive ceasefire. The government feared that a reduction of violence would only apply to major Afghan cities, leaving the countryside in the ragging war, even when the United States signs a deal with the Taliban.

“We’re working on a peace and reconciliation plan, putting the commas in the right place, getting the sentence right,” said U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during his visit to Central Asia at a press conference. “…what we are demanding now is demonstrable evidence of their will and capacity to reduce violence, to take down the threat, so the inter-Afghan talks…will have a less violent context.”

The Taliban’s Reaction

The spokesperson for the Taliban, Zabihullah Mujaheed, said in a Twitter post that the group wants a resolution. “Negotiation process has been harmed by Trump’s tweet, numerous US demands, and quarrel between U.S. and Kabul officials,” said Mujaheed. “[Secretary Pompeo] should refrain from blame-shifting.”

For weeks now, U.S.-Taliban talks have been focused on the reduction of violence and ceasefire: what the reduction of violence means and where it will be implemented. The talks aim to reach an agreement over U.S. troop gradual withdrawal and beginning of talks between the government and the Taliban along with other Afghans on future of power-sharing in the country.

Doha Talks

After talks with the Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar in January 2020, U.S. peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad visited Pakistan and Afghanistan. The U.S. embassy in Kabul said in a statement that Khalilzad met with leaders of the government and Afghan politicians. “In all meetings, Ambassador Khalilzad emphasized Afghans should continue to focus on bringing together the inclusive Islamic Republic negotiating team and preparing for intra-Afghan negotiations,” the statement added.

Fighting Continues During Peace Talks—Especially In Afghan Countryside

Simultaneous with the peace talks since the renewed push by U.S. diplomats and Taliban in November 2019, there has been widespread combat continued across the countryside of the country. According to U.S. watchdog SIGAR, The Taliban and other anti-government conducted 8,204 attacks on Afghan security forces during the last three months of 2019, with 38% successful operations that killed Afghan forces and captured their posts.

Airstrikes—which have been the main leverage of the government and U.S. forces in Afghanistan—routinely target Taliban forces on an unprecedented level. In 2019, U.S. Air Forces Central Command said that American aircrafts dropped 7,423 munitions in the country. U.S.-led troops flew nearly 8,800 operations in 2019, during which over a quarter of operations carried out strikes.

Afghan Civilians Are Caught In The Middle

In the middle of U.S.-backed government forces and Taliban fighters, Afghan civilians are caught, losing children, women, and men in a record number. Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission said in a statement that 27 civilians including 17 children were killed 24 others were wounded in pro-government airstrikes in only January of 2020.

“This is horrific and unacceptable. Civilian casualties must stop,” said Shahrzad Akbar, the chairperson of the Afghan Human Rights Commission. “This should make us all pause, especially those ordering airstrikes.”

What Happens Now?

With the war raging in the countryside, the peace talks have stagnated. The continuous repositioning of the United States, the Afghan government and the Taliban have raised fears of the breakdown of the fragile negotiations at a time that U.S. president Trump stated again he wanted U.S. troops back home in his State of Union to the U.S. Congress. Many people fear the U.S. would withdraw without a deal with the Taliban, leaving the country in a civil war.

“The calmness in Afghan cities could be silence before a storm,” said MP Rahmani, referring to the coming Spring Season which is generally a time of increased combat. “We might face severe and brutal war in the coming Spring Season.”

L'articolo Afghan Cities Blessed With Increasing Peace As Villages Burn proviene da InsideOver.

US president Donald Trump is likely to announce a massive drawdown in the number of troops stationed in Afghanistan “with or without” a deal with the Taliban. US Secretary of Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the withdrawal is almost certain last month, arguing that the Afghan security forces are becoming more and more capable in dealing with the country’s unstable security situation.

US Senator Lindsey Graham said he would support Trump’s decision to reduce the number of troops by around 3,500 to 8,600 from the existing 12,000. Speaking in Kabul last month, Graham said the withdrawal will not negatively affect the security situation in the country. He also guaranteed that “Afghanistan would not become a launching pad for another attack against the US homeland.”

US In Afghanistan: 2001 to 2010

From the initial campaign against the Taliban following the 9/11 attacks in Afghanistan that brought around 1,300 troops in to Afghanistan in November, 2001, the number of US troops in the next twelve months increased to around 10,000. By April, 2004, this number had swelled to more than 20,000.

However, American attention shifted with the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the number of US troops in Afghanistan remained unchanged after 2004 for a few years at around 20,000. As US attention focused on Baghdad, the Taliban began to attack allied bases in Afghanistan. By 2008, the number of US fatalities had increased to 153. The number peaked in 2010 at 496.

The rise in death of US servicemen led to a sharp increase in the number of US boots on ground. By May, 2009 the number increased to 50,000. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda continued to attack US positions in the country. By December, 2009, President Obama ordered another 33,000 troops in the country to counter the resurgent Taliban, and by 2010, the number of US troops in Afghanistan had risen to 100,000.

US In Afghanistan: 2010 to 2019

As the decade turned, the renewed US military presence in Afghanistan coupled with the help of precise drone strikes on terror camps contained and limited the Taliban’s abilities. Subsequently, US causalities began to fall. However as success increased, the US military and civil administration began to grow restless and sought ways to end the war. With the decrease in number of causalities, and the success of drone strikes, President Barack Obama’s administration began to decrease the number of troops in the country and withdraw.

By 2013, as US casualties in the war declined to 120 from its peak of 496 in 2010, the US withdrew around 54,000 personnel from the country. Then, in May, 2014, Obama announced his plans to pull virtually all of the US troops from the country by 2016. By October of 2015, the number of US troops in the country had fell to 9,800.

Trump’s Afghanistan Flip-Flop

With the arrival of new American President Donald Trump, however, the US began to backtrack on its plans to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan. Trump, warning against a “hasty withdrawal”, said the conditions on the ground—not arbitrary timetables—will guide US strategy from now on. Trump, going against the Obama era plans, decided to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. By September, 2019, he increased the number to 12,000. Now Trump wants once again to withdraw large amounts of US troops.

Implications Of The US Drawdown In Afghanistan

Trump’s decision to decrease troops from Afghanistan at a time when the US and Taliban are discussing a peace deal is likely to work in favor of the insurgent group. The Taliban is eager to regain its lost political relevance in Afghanistan. With American withdrawal, the Taliban will become more brazen in pressing its authority and brutality in Kabul. It has also shown no commitment to a ceasefire and continues to blatantly attack US personnel and airfields. Only last month a Taliban suicide bomber detonated an explosive-ridden truck in front of the key US base at Bagram Airfield, killing two civilians and injuring around 73 others.

Road To Afghan Peace?

The negotiations for developing a peace agreement have gone back and forth between the Taliban and the US over the last year, but the insurgent group’s failure to cease attacks have sabotaged all attempts to finalize a deal. In September of last year, Trump in a bizarre turn of events was poised to invite the Taliban to a leadership at Camp David to shake hands on the “Peace Deal.” However, the meeting was called off after an attack by the Taliban killed a US soldier and 11 other people.

The Taliban’s brash attacks despite the presence of US troops in the country begs the question as to what will the future look like once Trump decides to completely withdraw US forces from the country.

L'articolo Taliban Stand To Gain From Withdrawal Of US Troops proviene da InsideOver.