Before Donald Trump’s election as president in 2016, there were fears that he would tear apart NATO due to his hostility toward international institutions. Prior to November 2016, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned that a Trump presidency would result in Europe and the West in general becoming more dangerous due to Trump’s purported foreign policy of “American retreat.”

NATO Members are Increasing Spending

However, Trump is close to completing his term as US President and NATO remains intact. Indeed, during his first meeting with former British prime minister Theresa May in 2017, Trump softened his tone toward the alliance. He has consistently said throughout his presidency that NATO members must meet the alliance’s two percent defense spending target, and that is not an unreasonable request, especially when you consider the fact that Greece, with its massive budget deficit, has met all of its NATO targets since 2006. Bloomberg reported that alliance members have upped their military spending by about $130 billion from 2016 to 2020.

Trump is Right to Demand That NATO Members Meet Their Defense Budget Requirements

Because Germany failed to meet its own NATO spending target, Trump pulled 12,000 troops out of the country in July, so that American forces could focus more on rotational developments in Eastern Europe. This shows that he was the first US president since NATO was founded to dish out consequences to member states that failed to pay their defense bills.

While there is nothing wrong with that, such a move no doubt strained America’s relationship with Germany, and because the US President has also fought trade wars with the EU, he has failed to win widespread support for his pledge to reform NATO spending.

This is the legacy that incoming president Joe Biden will inherit from Trump. Diplomats and officials hinted prior to the 2020 election that they would hold a March summit with the former vice president, on the condition that he wins the presidential race. Therefore, many NATO officials are warmer to the idea of a Biden presidency as opposed to a second Trump administration.

Biden Will Lead a More Multilateral Administration

Biden is likely to adopt a more multilateral approach to foreign relations than the current US President. Not only will he be more enthusiastic about NATO in general, but he will use his position of power to ensure that the US rejoins numerous global institutions that his country quit under Trump’s presidency, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO).

He will also sign the US back up to numerous initiatives that the Trump administration pulled America out of, such as the 2015 Iran Deal (should Tehran comply with it again), and the Paris Climate Agreement. As Trump is the only Western leader who opposes these initiatives and institutions, many European leaders will no doubt feel relieved that the world’s most powerful nation is on their side again regarding climate change and multilateralism.

The incoming president’s view of international relations will impact NATO. Biden is keen to have a meeting with his NATO allies to show that America “is back.” Also, the former vice president may want to expand the alliance further.

Biden Likely to Work to Restore Strong US-Germany Ties

German Chancellor Angela Merkel enjoyed a far warmer relationship with George W. Bush and Barack Obama than she has with Trump so far, and Biden is likely to restrengthen the ties between Germany and America. He may well reverse Trump’s decision to move US troops out of Berlin as a sign of goodwill toward Merkel.

Despite this, he should insist that NATO states meet their defense bills by 2024, but he will use more carrot than stick to achieve this aim, whereas Trump adopted the opposite approach.

It is safe to conclude that Biden’s rhetoric about NATO will be more positive than Trump’s, but Trump was always right to argue that the alliance’s members must meet their defense targets. It will be interesting to see how the incoming president will communicate this to America’s closest allies, and how he goes about achieving this goal.

L'articolo What a Biden Presidency Means for NATO proviene da InsideOver.

Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the recent US presidential election after the world waited for the counting process with bated breath. The former vice-president under Barack Obama defeated incumbent Donald Trump by gaining 290 electoral votes.

The big question now is who Biden will pick for key positions in his administration. Previously, Biden promised that his cabinet would be the most diverse, consisting of individuals from various backgrounds, from more people of color to greater representation of America’s LGBT community.

“Men, women, gay, straight, center, across the board, Black, white, Asian—it really matters that it looks like the country because everyone brings a slightly different perspective,” the 77-year old said in April.

Will Susan Rice be the Next Secretary of State?

The choice for Secretary of State will be the most anticipated given America’s impact on the rest of the world and the important role played by its head diplomat. Former national security adviser and ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Susan Rice has been predicted to replace Mike Pompeo as upcoming Secretary of State.

Rice is a veteran diplomat who sparked controversy because over the way she handled the terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012-when she was Washington’s ambassador to the UN. Rice falsely claimed that an American movie that insulted Islam triggered the attack, snubbing the allegation the militant groups might have been behind the incident.

“I acknowledge that there were some words and phrases I uttered on Sunday, Sept. 16, that I wish I could restate with more precision, less certitude, or not have said at all. None of them materially changed the substance of what I said, but they offered fodder for my critics to pick at,” she wrote in her memoir Tough Love in 2019.

Former US President Barack Obama later appointed Rice to be National Security Adviser, a position that does not need Congressional approval.

Other candidates are Obama’s former deputy secretary of state Anthony Blinken — who served as Biden’s foreign policy advisor — and career diplomat William Burns, who once was also Obama’s deputy secretary of state.

Restoring ‘American Values’ Overseas

Bureaucrats play a vital role in formulating and preserving all policies, including foreign policy. Therefore, core principles are not expected to shift whoever becomes the POTUS.

However, everything changed under Trump as he tended to make decisions unilaterally such as US withdrawal from several crucial agreements including the Paris Climate Accord. 

“I can’t tell what Biden’s foreign policy will look like, but he is expected to restore American values. The U.S. under Trump does not seem to care about other countries’ prosperity,” said University of Indonesia International Relations Professor Hikmahanto Juwana.

“Also, Trump shocked the world with his unpredictable acts. He pulled out from the Iran nuclear deal, wanted to leave the World Health Organization (WHO), and moved the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Last but not least, Trump did not want to listen to bureaucrats. He sacked anyone he wanted, tweeted openly about everything,”  Juwana said in an interview with InsideOver.

How Interventionist Will Biden Be?

It is feared that Biden’s foreign policy will be more interventionist because of the support he has received from senior military officials. Juwana did not elaborate furthermore on such a premise.

“We can’t predict yet about whether Biden’s policy will be interventionist or not. However, at least those retired officials see that Biden will be more cooperative with the Congress, that’s my opinion so far,” he commented.

John J.Farmer, Jr, director of Rutgers University-New Brunswick’s Eagleton Institute of Politics, echoed similar sentiments when commenting on the impact of the US election on the use of presidential power.

“If Biden is elected then, given his history in the Senate, we may see more of an attempt to work more collaboratively with Congress, at least initially. There will always be tension between the president and Congress. Still, his legislative background may enable him to work with Congress to a greater extent than Bush, Obama or Trump,” Farmer told Newswise a day before the election.

Investors are Waiting for Biden’s Economic Team

Biden’s victory sent a positive signal to the market, with hopes that the new POTUS will focus on recovering the domestic economy hit by the pandemic as well as ease trade tension and boost global cooperation.

Several female candidates are reportedly being closely considered for Treasury Secretary, namely Lael Brainard (the Fed Governor), former Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, and former Fed boss Janet Yellen. Another candidate being considered is formr deputy Treasury Secretary Sarah Bloom Raskin, according to Marketwatch.

Bernie Sanders for Labor Secretary?

Once one of Biden’s rivals in the presidential primary, Senator Bernie Sanders will reportedly be tapped for the post of Labor Secretary in a Biden admin. 

The Vermont-based senator-is an experienced politician who has been fighting for labors rights and social welfare for decades. The nomination of the elderly social democratic senator sounds good news for American workers affected by the pandemic.

While the Labor Department does not create a policy, it has flexibility in interpreting and implementing existing law, as Jacobin mag explained. For example, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich successfully implemented the Family and Medical Leave Act and increased minimum wage under the Bill Clinton administration.

How Many Republicans Will be in Biden’s Cabinet?

Past presidents such as Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama involved candidates from the opposing parties in their cabinets. However, as such a tradition was over during the Trump administration, it is feared that a Republican candidate’s inclusion will create a rift within the Democratic Party.

If Republicans control the Senate, it is unlikely for Biden to put progressive politicians such as Warren and Sanders in his cabinet, Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, told USATODAY.

The Democratic party advocates issues such as labor protection, human rights, and environmental conservation. Therefore, activists hope that Biden will include progressive politicians with a renowned reputation in those areas in the cabinet.

Tapping a candidate from an opposition party is familiar as a sign of unity in the Cabinet. However, Biden is now facing a divided Republican party: those who support and oppose Trump as Matt Bennett, executive vice president of public affairs at the centrist think tank Third Way, recently warned.

“You get the downside of having someone in your Cabinet that’s not aligned with you ideologically and alienates the left, without getting the upside of bipartisanship,” Bennett told Politico. :Does nominating a Never Trumper really bring people together?” 

L'articolo Joe Biden’s Choices for His Upcoming Administration and What they Mean proviene da InsideOver.

As former US vice president Joe Biden prepares his transition into the White House following a heated presidential election — the results of which current President Donald Trump still has not yet accepted — it looks possible that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is going to present the incoming president with a foreign policy headache as soon as he starts his new job.

North Korea’s state media once described Biden as a “rabid dog who should be beaten to death,” and Kim has yet to comment publicly on the result of last week’s presidential election.

The incoming president, who has been critical of Trump’s “cozy relationships” with numerous dictators, was never expected to copy the current President’s strategy of love-bombing North Korea’s leader, but the Biden administration is already off to a bad start in trying to resolve the North Korean question given Pyongyang’s view of him.

Trump’s Considerable Progress with Pyongyang

Andrei Lankov, a professor of North Korean studies at Kookmin University in Seoul, told the Express Online that Pyongyang is going to be “deeply unhappy” with a Biden presidency.

Furthermore, the incoming president has previously branded North Korea’s leader as a “thug.”

Despite this, it’s important to remember that the relationship between Kim and Trump also started off badly in 2017. The current President mockingly described North Korea’s leader as “rocket man” before meeting Kim for conferences designed to end Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

Though Trump ultimately failed to resolve the North Korean question — which has been haunting US presidents for decades — he made far more progress on this issue than his predecessor President Barack Obama. He became the first American president to enter North Korea’s border and he managed to ensure that both North and South Korea entered into peaceful dialog, which is a crucial first step toward ending the unfinished war between Pyongyang and Seoul.

Biden may not approve of Trump’s attitude toward dictators, but regarding North Korea, it’s fair to say that the strategy has paid off to a certain extent.

Biden Should Make North Korea-South Korea Peace a Priority

Before the recent US election, I wrote in a previous column that Kim’s recent display of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) demonstrates that the Korean peace process is over. Nonetheless, that does not mean I believe that Biden should start imposing fresh sanctions on Pyongyang, because they are clearly failing to prevent North Korea’s regime from acquiring nuclear weapons.

I also stressed that whoever becomes the next US president should prioritize ending the hostilities between North and South Korea. This is because the benefit of such an approach would slowly steer Pyongyang away from Beijing’s influence.

If this is the path that Biden chooses, he will find it impossible to achieve such an outcome without meeting North Korea’s leader face-to-face.

Biden May Have to Meet Kim Jong-un at Some Stage

The Chinese Government may be more open to collaborating with Biden to start paving the way for an end to North Korea’s nuclear missile program. For example, one solution is for Beijing to provide Pyongyang with payments that are tied to denuclearization.

Yet the incoming president has also referred to Jinping as a “thug.” Such comments would make it difficult for China and America to collaborate with one another to end North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, but that depends on whether Biden’s policy approach toward Beijing is going to be exactly the same as Trump’s.

Gregory F. Treverton argued in Time that one possible option to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear program is regime change from within. This could happen because of the economic impact that the coronavirus is having on North Korea, yet the country’s regime has a remarkable history of preserving itself. Nevertheless, regime change is ultimately the only way to achieve positive change in Korea.

The reality is that there will be no change in the relationship between North Korea and the US once Biden enters the White House this January. Equally, the incoming president might have to quietly adopt Trump’s approach toward Pyongyang if he has any hope of persuading Kim to surrender his nuclear weapons.

L'articolo What’s Next for US-North Korea Relations in a Biden Administration? proviene da InsideOver.

They have turned him into a martyr! Certainly not Donald the man, flawed as he may be, but Trump, the defender of the West, the protector of the individual and the torchbearer for freedom, entrepreneurship, tradition and history.

Trump: Fighting for Principles Conservatives Believe In

Whichever way the election goes – and there’s still a chance that the results will be contested – the radical behavior of his opponents has ensured he remains in the memory of all the peoples of the West, as the only one who stood up to the mainstream Establishment in defense of the simple man. The everyday person that simply wants to live a life free and without the long, interfering hand of the government.

Certainly conservatives do not appreciate the cult of personality worship and collectivism. In fact, they abhor it. However, they value the men that stand up and fight for them and the principles they believe in.

The Left Still Doesn’t Get It

As I write these lines, while the election is far from over, I cannot help but laugh at the anti-Trumpers, the communists, socialists, anarchists, left-wing fanatics, the media, the Establishment, the fake conservatives and many more who never understood him, the people or what they stand for. Some do not truly understand, while others try to discredit the President and his supporters because they hate the ideology that defends the individual.

Today these people are quite angry, because even though they moved heaven and hell to defeat Donald Trump, they could not. In the end, they may very well succeed in removing him from the White House. However, the ideas he defended will live on in around 70 million Americans and in hundreds of millions around the world.

That is why Trump will emerge victorious from these elections either way. He reinvigorated the Republican Party and created a global movement which rallied to the side of the abovementioned values of the West.

Trump Was Not an Accident

Trump has conclusively proven he was not an accident in politics. How could he be when millions more voted for him now compared to 2016? How can his opponents explain the fact that he received the highest share of non-white votes since the 1960 elections, at 26%?

Trump gained among the African American community, going from 8% to 12%, among Hispanics, from which he received 32% compared to 31% for McCain, 27% for Romney, 28% for Trump 2016, according to CNN and among Muslims, jumping from 15% in 2016 to 35% in 2020.

Trump created the broadest coalition in the history of the GOP. He broke identity politics and ushered in a new Republican Party. All these gains make one wonder how did he supposedly lose with all these gains compared to the previous elections.

Republican Legislative Power is Still Strong

Thanks to Trump being on the ballot – unlike in 2018 – the Republicans not only did not lose a single house seat, but also gained and will either have a majority or remain in opposition with a small difference with the Democrats. The Grand Old Party lost no state legislatures and won eight of eleven governor races, reconfirming that they have the majority of the States.

Moreover, and more importantly, the Republicans kept the Senate, meaning a possible Joe Biden Presidency will not be able to accomplish any of the absurd and crazy communist policies his Party has promised. Overall, it was a great night for the Republican Party and that is why the left is not actually at all happy.

This is because their goal is not simply destroying Trump the man, but obtaining absolute power. Further proof of the danger freedom of speech finds itself are the calls of several far left figures in the Democratic Party, such as Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, to compile a list and harass every person who does not support them and their extremist ideology. Imagine what would happen if such individuals gain power.

The Imaginary Blue Wave

Nevertheless, the election night was a total defeat for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, the media, identity politics, far left extremism, the polling industry and everybody who expected a blue wave. Some may even say that it is a defeat for Biden even if he manages to reach the White House, because he will be a puppet of the far-left, unable to govern and may even be forced to resign to leave the Presidency to the socialist sympathizer and pro-abortion extremist Kamala Harris.

However, it was a win for America, because even though the Democrats will weaken the greatest Republic on Earth, they will not be able to destroy its fundamentals. This is important for all of us who want the balance of power to remain in the West and China’s expansionary intentions to be stopped.

Wishing Biden All the Best

If Biden ends up winning honestly, conservatives will wish him all the best, as will all of us across the world. If Biden does a good job as President, manages to control the far-left and makes America stronger, then the world will be stronger and, while I am skeptical it will happen, we should all root for that.

No conservative will riot, burn and destroy as we have seen the left do during the past four years. That is a great difference in ideology and thought between the right and left.

On the other hand, we should acknowledge that the elections in the Democrat-run states were a mess. The first cause of this confusion were mail-in votes. It is important to note that mail-in votes are different from absentee ballots, which leave a trace in the system of the person who asks for the ballot, their address and identity. Meanwhile, mail-in votes leave no trace. Tens of millions of such ballots were sent to peoples’ homes and they would send back the ballots filled without a date, address or identity check. In previous elections, only five states allowed mail-in ballots with much lower numbers than currently.

The proof for this is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and even Georgia, in which hundreds of thousands of mail-in votes appeared out of nowhere, and without a date and address, according to many reports. The validity of these claims, together with the veracity of the videos showing people dumping in the garbage bins or burning votes, of course, will be shown by the courts. The doubt remains and will cast a shadow of illegitimacy to whoever wins in the end. That is bad for America.

Loose Voting Requirements Leave Ample Space for Fraud

The other problem is the lack of ID requirements in many states. Many outside of the US do not know it, but 16 states and the District of Columbia do not require any form of identification to vote. All of these states are run by democrats and it is the left who has been campaigning hard to remove ID requirements in other states as well.

Another cause of the debacle we are witnessing is the fact that the democrats in Pennsylvania extended the voting until November 6, three days after the election, which is unconstitutional. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court that has a progressive majority whose philosophy is legislating from the bench, allowed this to happen. US Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch said: “Nothing in our founding document contemplates the kind of judicial intervention that took place here, nor is there precedent for it in the 230 years of this country’s decisions.

Voting Software Security Issues

Lastly, there were problems with the software used for counting. According to recent reports, ballots that were meant for Republicans were counted for Democrats, due to a glitch in the system. 47 counties in Michigan used the same software, leading to hundreds of thousands of ballots wrongly counted. Michigan’s Antrim County flipped to Donald Trump after a glitch was fixed, correctly putting 6,000 for President Trump. Republicans are calling for a recounting in all these counties. The election software system is called Dominion, according to Project Veritas, and it is used in 30 states, including Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania. There are documents showing that the Clinton Foundation paid for this software.

As a result, there have been reports of tens of thousands of dead people voting, democrat officials not allowing Republican observers near the counting rooms, and putting paper in the windows to block the viewing of such rooms. In Wayne County for example, more than 14,000 dead people appeared to have voted.  In Rochester Hills, 2,000 votes were incorrectly double counted for Democrats.

As per Trump’s Press Secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, election workers wore Biden shirts and clapped as GOP watchers were removed. The Courts had to decide to allow Republican observers back in. The worry is that the damage may have already been done. Furthermore, a whistleblower confessed that their supervisor asked them to illegally put dates on ballots. In Nevada, GOP claims to have found 3,000 instances of voter fraud.

Crossing into Canada with Bags Full of Ballots?

In addition, a man was arrested trying to cross the border with Canada with bags full of ballots, while a woman was charged with 134 felony counts for election fraud. According to prosecutors, she submitted voter registration applications for 67 residents without their signature and consent and pretended to be their agent. On Friday evening, several bags of military ballots were found in garbage bins in Georgia.

Undoubtedly, similar reports will continue to emerge in the coming days. It is obvious the US is in need of certain electoral reforms, such as ID requirements by law and a unified system, closer to the Florida one, which completed the process in record time. Moreover, without a doubt the mail-in voting experiment proved to be a fiasco and should never again be tried, in not only the US, but also nowhere else.

Whoever is responsible for this mess, and especially if the Courts prove these claims to be true, is not doing it to damage Trump or the Republicans, but to harm beyond repair the image and strength of the United States in the international community. As many empires before, the United States can only fall if it is undermined from within. Many advocates of a new world order have publicly stated that the time of the United States and the West has passed. This helps the Democrats, and adversely affects Western civilization.

Therefore, President Trump, who has been insulted, abused and undermined by the Establishment, has a right to point out that there may be foul play. The interference with the election may prove of little consequence in the end. For sure, the courts will have their say. However, these elections confirmed the relevance of the Trump Doctrine and the resolve of the left to undermine the United States from within.

These ideologies will continue to clash going forward into the future.

L'articolo Lessons from an Abnormal Election proviene da InsideOver.

Despite the fact that the Trump campaign team refuses to accept the result of the 2020 U.S. presidential election that so many networks have called in Joe Biden’s favor, it is fair to say that (unless U.S. President Donald Trump possesses substantial evidence that voter fraud took place across the U.S. during the time that mail-in ballots were being posted) he has lost the election.

As Biden prepares to become president of the most powerful country in the world over the next few months, his administration will have an impact on foreign policy no matter what. Although he will have a completely different vision to Trump, he cannot escape the latter’s legacy on foreign policy, which is far better than many of his critics would like to believe.

Trump Has a Successful Legacy in the Middle East

Biden will inherit Trump’s mostly successful Middle Eastern peace process. The current U.S. President presided over normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain that resulted in both nations accepting Israel’s legitimacy.

The incoming president has made it clear that he would not reverse Trump’s decision to relocate the Israeli embassy to Jerusalem, which did not thwart the current President’s later efforts to encourage peace in the Middle East.

The Biden team released a positive statement in support of the Abraham Accords when they were signed, and it will be interesting to see whether a Biden administration will push for Saudi Arabia to normalize its relations with Israel. That would be a huge victory for a Biden presidency, but it is important to remember that Riyadh became open to the idea of normalized relations with Israel under a Trump administration.

Iran May Still Pose Problems for Biden

The former vice president has made it abundantly clear that he opposed Trump’s decision to withdraw from Obama’s Iran Deal, yet he will be confronting an Iranian regime that is far more confrontational than the one he dealt with during his final days as vice president.

U.S. Middle East envoy Avi Berkowitz said in an interview with The Jerusalem Post last month that he is worried a Biden administration would appease Iran and that this could have negative ramifications for the U.S.’s efforts to push for normalization deals.

Despite this, a change of president does not mean Tehran will suddenly shift its strategy. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on November 4 that it does not matter who wins the 2020 U.S. election, his country has planned for ‘difficult conditions’ in the future. He also called for a return to ‘international and multilateral accords.’

Biden has hinted that he will lift sanctions against Iran and return to the 2015 deal, but that might be easier said than done if Tehran also does not play by the rules. The incoming president may have to draft an entirely new agreement, but his opponents will hold him to account if it is just as soft as Obama’s pact was.

Biden Must Be Tough on China

In Asia, the former vice president cannot ignore the growing threat that China poses. Trump was the first U.S. leader to raise alarm about Beijing’s growing influence. Although Biden is unlikely to start another trade war with China, the incoming president has referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as ‘a thug.’ He has no detailed policies as to how he will tackle Beijing, but his rhetoric suggests that he has learned from the Trump administration’s approach toward America’s new adversary. Regardless, actions always speak louder than words.

Although Biden campaigned to end Trump’s presidency, the latter’s impact on foreign relations means it will be impossible for the incoming president not to continue with the Trump administration’s Middle East peace initiatives, and the growing threat that China poses. Biden will be very different to the current President when it comes to Europe and climate change, but for those who were hoping that a Biden presidency would result in dramatic changes in U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East and Beijing, they should think again.

L'articolo Why Biden Won’t be Able To Escape Trump’s Foreign Policy Legacy proviene da InsideOver.

For the U.S., history has just repeated itself in a very short time, and once again the opinion polls have failed to anticipate how much support U.S. President Donald Trump enjoys. On Monday, CNBC reported that the Democratic runner and former Vice President, Joe Biden, had a 6.5-point lead over Trump, according to The RealClearPolitics general election polling average. However, the results at this current time of writing present a very different picture.

So far, this election is proving to be just as close and nail-biting as the 2000 U.S. presidential election, which saw George W. Bush narrowly beat his Democratic rival Al Gore in the state of Florida by just 537 votes. Yet the swing state delivered the Republicans’ biggest win there since the 2004 poll.

The blue wave never happened for Biden

Trump also won certain battleground states that were crucial for his return to the White House, such as Ohio and Iowa. Even Texas was considered to be a battleground state, and Biden would have no doubt been left disappointed at the Democrats’ failure to win the state for the first time since 1976.

But the biggest disappointment for the former Vice President is that the ‘blue wave’ many pollsters anticipated never happened. As I wrote in a previous column, Biden used his former boss, Barack Obama, to his advantage by campaigning alongside him in many swing states. The idea behind this strategy was to encourage many floating voters who voted for Trump’s predecessor in 2008 and 2016, to vote for his former Vice President. The Democrats’ decision to roll out Obama clearly failed to trigger the blue wave that Biden so desperately needed.

Obama failed to inspire the Democratic base

Not only did Obama fail to inspire the Democrats’ base to vote in large numbers, but the blue wave never happened because Biden does not possess the charm and likability that many former Democratic presidents have. According to YouGov, Trump’s predecessor has a 58 percent positive rating, and Bill Clinton remains the thirteenth most popular former Democratic president.

Biden possessed almost the same positive ratings as Hillary Clinton did months before the 2016 election. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that the former Vice President was ahead of Trump by 11 percentage points. In 2016, Hillary was ahead of the then Republican candidate by 10 points. Biden was also over 50 percent in a previous poll, but the polls clearly got it wrong again as they failed to consider one crucial factor that helped Trump carry many US states: the shy Trump factor.

Despite this, there was one pollster who accurately predicted that Trump’s shy supporters would help him win in many battleground states. The Sun reported that Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group said that the U.S. President’s ‘shy’ voters would help get him re-elected. He said that those voters do not tell pollsters the truth because of mounting pressures within society. Therefore, it is clear that Trump still enjoys a lot of popular support amongst his own base.

The Democrats must do some soul-searching

What also became apparent on Tuesday was that Trump performed better with many voters that the Democrats have always taken for granted. The BBC discovered that the U.S. President’s support among black voters increased by 4 percent, and CNN found that Trump won the support of 35 percent of Latino voters, although Biden managed to win over just half of the Latino vote. He performed worse with this group than Hillary did in 2016, as the latter won 62 percent of the Latino vote that year.

Regardless of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the Democrats need to start asking themselves why they are failing to mobilize their supporters in the same they did when Obama and Bill Clinton were leading their party. They need to learn some lessons from the last four years and stop taking their supporters for granted, otherwise it will be a long time before we witness another blue surge in support.

L'articolo Why The Blue Wave Never Happened for the Democrats proviene da InsideOver.

The US election next week would under normal circumstances produce a clear winner by the following morning. After votes are tallied, results would would be certified with winners of each state declared. However, this year’s election is highly irregular thanks to the coronavirus pandemic which has led to a massive uptick in mail-in ballots.

Dire Circumstances

There is also the problem of President Donald Trump’s attitude toward the affair. Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump in all recent polls, often by at least 10 points according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight. The American president is losing by all accounts and if the surveys are true, could become the first incumbent to lose since George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in the 1992 election.

At a clear disadvantage in the polls and with 62 million ballots already cast, Trump is preparing to put up a fight to bend the results in his favor. He began laying the groundwork for his contingency plan in the beginning of the year by assaulting the absentee voting process, but the ultimate move came with the confirmation of his latest pick for the Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett. Taken in tandem, Trump has convinced his supporters to doubt the legitimacy of mailed ballots and stacked the highest court with judges who can act accordingly.

The result is that the 2020 election is quickly shaping up to be a repeat of 2000’s Bush v. Gore saga that was dragged out for five weeks.

Planting Seeds of Distrust

The first step to undermining the results of next week’s election was to sell the idea to voters. Trump managed this by railing against mail-in voting with unfounded accusations of increased voter fraud. He pushed governors to limit the practice and particularly deny the opportunity for absentee voting to people based on COVID-19 concerns. 

Some states, like Texas, have highly restricted access to advance ballots and for those voters have closed all but one ballot drop box in each county. For some counties, such as Harris County which includes the city of Houston, this means only one location for nearly 5 million people.

In states that have allowed voting by mail, the Trump campaign and Republican Party have worked furiously to cancel as many ballots as they can by raising court cases. Essentially, the GOP strategy in such states now boils down to enforcing state-mandated cut-off times for receiving ballots. In three states, legal battles have made their way to the Supreme Court as Trump tries to stop states from extending deadlines.

Supreme Court Takes Center Stage

The Court already ruled that Wisconsin cannot extend its deadline six days past the election as it tried to do, but cases pertaining to North Carolina and Pennsylvania remain to be ruled on definitively. In the latter case, a 4-4 ruling from the Court refused to side one way or the other and let the lower court’s ruling stand, but Barrett’s confirmation to the bench will likely alter that math.

Both states are key swing states and Biden’s lead in both is within the margin of error. Invalidating absentee votes received too late would likely help the Trump campaign as Democrats are more likely to vote by mail.

Barrett, who will join four other conservative-leaning justices, is key in ruling on the state election issues. More crucially, the newest justice will have a significant part to play in the event of a contested election à la Bush v. Gore.

In 2000, George W. Bush opposed hand recounts of ballots in four Florida counties that had Democratic majorities. The case bears similarities to next week’s election, notably that it featured a Republican candidate arguing against counting ballots.

Familiar Backgrounds

Three Supreme Court justices, including the recently-confirmed Barrett, worked on Bush’s legal team. Chief Justice John Roberts assisted the lawyer who would present the case in Florida’s Supreme Court.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, appointed by Trump, worked in Florida to prevent recounts in Volusia County and was hired by Bush shortly after his election win. Finally, Barrett was employed by a law firm and assisted with researching matters pertaining to the case. 

Two of Trump’s appointees were directly involved to the 2000 Bush v. Gore case. This cannot be a coincidence as the president is preparing his options in the event that he loses on Tuesday. In that event, the outcome could take weeks to determine, particularly as the battle over counting mailed ballots continues.

Election a Deciding Factor in Choosing Barrett

Trump cited the issue as the reason for necessitating a quick appointment of Barrett. 

“I think this will end up at the Supreme Court,” Trump said. “And I think it’s very important that we have nine justices.”

During her Senate Judicial Committee confirmation hearing, Barrett declined to commit to recusing herself from ruling on a hypothetical case over a challenged election. The new justice was handpicked for this very case and it’s unlikely she would rebuke Trump by sitting it out.

With a conservative majority now on the Supreme Court bench, the only remedy is for Biden to win a commanding share of in-person votes on election night. Doing so would give him a lead that Trump can’t take away by barring mailed ballots. 

A solid election night victory would also prevent a Bush v. Gore scenario from playing out once again. In the 2000 election, Bush led Gore by only five electoral votes with a lead of only 1,000 votes in Florida. The tight race of 2000 is unlikely to be repeated, but that won’t stop Trump from trying to discredit unfavorable results.

Throwing out ballots and turning to the Supreme Court — a third of which he appointed — might be Trump’s only means of securing the 2020 election. The president knows this and after this week’s confirmation of Barrett, is prepared to go down fighting.

L'articolo Trump Preparing for Election Fight With Barrett’s Confirmation proviene da InsideOver.

Despite having completed three phases of economic relief, the US government is eager to pass another stimulus package. However, Republicans in the Senate are at odds with President Donald Trump and Democrats who desire over $2 trillion in bailout money. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin declared that a fourth phase of emergency spending will likely not come before the Nov. 3 elections.

Trump No Longer Controls the Party on Coronavirus Relief

Since the last relief measure was approved in August, both parties seemed to agree that more would be needed for everything from COVID-19 testing to bolstering infrastructure, state and local governments, and the wellbeing of American families. For the most part, the struggle to get Washington to loosen its purse strings has been between Democrats and Republicans, with Trump usually going along with his party if not leading it.

During this round of stimulus talks, however, the president has proven to be a wild card with his views all over the board and constantly changing, sometimes from one day to the next. Shortly after he returned to the White House after being hospitalized with coronavirus, Trump announced he had called off talks until after the election, causing American stock markets to nosedive. At the same time, he tweeted that he would be willing to immediately sign a bill providing $1,200 to Americans if Congress would have delivered it to his desk. 

In the week that has followed, Trump has returned to the campaign trail, leaving the administration’s stimulus efforts under the direction of Mnuchin who has been unable to make any meaningful progress with House Democrats who are pushing a $2.2 trillion spending bill, as the New York Times reported.

Relief Won’t Come Soon

“At this point, getting something done before the election and executing on that will be difficult,” Mnuchin said.

Republican leaders in the Senate are preparing to vote on a substantially smaller package with $500 billion worth of aid, CNBC reported.

“My members think what we laid out – a half a trillion dollars, highly targeted – is the best way to go. So that’s what I’m going to put on the floor,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R–Ky.

And while Mnuchin is busy fighting Democrats to get them to lower their asking price, Trump is doing the opposite, encouraging Republicans to spend more.

“STIMULUS! Go big or go home!!!,” Trump tweeted on Oct. 13. Trump’s proposal with a price tag of $1.8 trillion is higher than the Senate plan and he said he “would go higher. Go big or go home, I said it yesterday.”

Trump was also critical of Mnuchin’s efforts saying, “So far he hasn’t come home with the bacon.”

“The president has said to me, keep at this until you get this done,” Mnuchin said, adding that a deal could be reached quickly if Pelosi compromises. “If we don’t get it now, when the president wins the election we’ll get it passed quickly afterwards.”

McConnell is the Real Problem

While Trump and Mnuchin may be operating under the premise that Democrats are holding up the next round of emergency relief, it is really McConnell and Senate Republicans who are to blame. McConnell is up for reelection next month and could be attempting to position himself as more fiscally conservative in order to shore up traditional Republican voters.

Denying requests for more spending from both Trump and House Democrats gives Republicans, particularly those up for reelection like McConnell, a talking point for their party. They can claim during this year’s campaign and in subsequent elections that they reined in overspending and fought to return Washington to an era of fiscal conservatism.

While that message would resonate with some small-government conservatives, the lack of more coronavirus relief will hurt the GOP at the polls in November. America is already considered to have one of the worst coronavirus responses, especially among developed nations. For voters, COVID-19 will be a dominant, if not the top, issue.

That includes economic relief funding. While Democratic and left-leaning voters might agree that the Trump administration mishandled the crisis, failing to adequately shield Americans from the economic effects is another mistake entirely. While some states, such as Canada, provided a monthly stipend to negate the effect of the pandemic, Washington has so far provided only a meager, one-time payment.

A November Reckoning

With extended unemployment benefits now finished, undecided voters and even many cash-strapped conservatives will judge the president at the voting booth.

McConnell’s refusal to lead Senate Republicans in a larger relief package as Trump himself has asked for will come back to haunt the party in a few weeks.

Current polling indicates Democratic candidate Joe Biden will win the presidency and his party will retake the Senate. In that case, the first order of business will undoubtedly be to pass a comprehensive stimulus package, if the current legislature is incapable of doing so. 

Unlike Trump who has flip-flopped on his stimulus views, the Biden campaign has as a coherent plan of action for pushing more emergency relief through Washington. It includes forgiving student loans, increasing social security payouts, giving families additional stimulus checks, and providing free COVID-19 testing and vaccines when they are available. 

Crucially, Biden’s plan makes it clear that his administration would keep developing solutions as long as the pandemic persists. This kind of messaging contrasts heavily with Trump and the GOP’s. Voters, many of who continue to be unemployed, will have a choice of polar opposites on Election Day. Republicans have limited time to get on-board before they face a potential reckoning at the polls.

L'articolo Republicans Blame Democrats for Aid Delay When They’re to Blame proviene da InsideOver.