Shortly before the important Senate runoff elections in Georgia, a phone call has taken place in which President Donald Trump pressured Georgia’s Secretary of State to change the state’s presidential election results. A recording of the call was released on Jan. 3 by the Washington Post.

What Did Trump Say?

On Saturday, Trump had a telephone conversation with the Secretary of State of Georgia Brad Raffensperger. During the call, Trump talked extensively about allegations of electoral fraud and requested a subsequent change in the presidential election result in Georgia.

In the one-hour phone call, Trump repeatedly and bluntly urges Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” enough votes for him and “recalculate” the result. Trump threatens Raffensperger, saying he would be taking a “great risk” and could possibly be guilty of a crime if he did not take action against the alleged election fraud.

Trump’s Close Election Loss in Georgia

Trump narrowly lost Georgia in the November 3 election, which was won by Democratic challenger Joe Biden by about 12,000 votes. The results were officially recounted twice, and despite Trump’s claims no indications of election fraud were found. During the call with Raffensperger, Trump complained about what he saw as the “wrong” result in Georgia and asserted that he had won the election.

“So look. All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state”, he said, according to the recording. It was “not fair to take our victory away,” added the president.

“There’s no way I lost Georgia,” Trump said several times during the call. “There’s no way. We won by hundreds of thousands of votes.”

Raffensperger must recheck the results, Trump demanded. But this should be done in cooperation with people who “want to find the answers”, the President added.

Raffensper to Trump: ‘the Data you Have is Wrong’

Raffensperger, however, counters Trump, taking issue with his information.

“The problem you have is that the data you have is wrong”, the Secretary of State can be heard saying: “We have to stand by our numbers. We believe our numbers are correct.” Raffensperger pointed out that the courts also confirmed the results.

Trump rejected these arguments, falling back on an emotional appeal.

“The people of Georgia are angry, the people in the country are angry,” Trump said. “And there’s nothing wrong with saying, you know, um, that you’ve recalculated.”

To date, neither the White House nor Raffensperger’s office has commented on the report. The office of President-elect Biden did not want to comment either.

The Washington Post article states the “rambling and sometimes incoherent conversation” showed how “obsessed and desperate” the president was over his electoral defeat. Trump still believes he could change the outcome in enough states to secure a second term.

After the conversation, Trump took his frustration to Twitter and called Raffensperger “clueless”.

Trump’s Rigged Election Claims are Falling Apart

This call is a final testimony — if it was ever needed in the first place — that the whole saga of a “fraudulent” election was never about doing the right thing, upholding democracy or patriotism. It has been about cheating the president into a second term, plain and simple. It is a soft coup attempt in broad daylight, that has been supported by prominent figures within Lincoln’s party, so-called defenders of American exceptionalism.

During four years in which the US, and indeed, the world, have witnessed one White House scandal after the next — most of which would have cost any other president his office — the Saturday telephone conversation is arguably Trump’s magnum opus.

It also transpires only days prior to January 6, when Congress’s joint session will confirm Biden’s electoral college votes. Several Republicans have pledged they would challenge the confirmation. While it will not affect Biden’s win, it displays how many within the GOP have now completely aligned themselves and their political future with Donald Trump and his baseless and debunked claims of a fraudulent election.

A Split GOP?

These actions are likely to cause increased frictions within the GOP as more and more Republicans are publicly opposing the president’s conduct.

Meanwhile, runoff elections for two Senate seats will also take place on Tuesday in Georgia, the result of which could overturn the majority of Republicans in the Senate.

As things stand, the Republicans have 50 seats in the Senate and the Democrats 48. The Republicans in Georgia only have to win one of the two elections to continue to hold a majority in the chamber. A Republican majority would have a significant impact on Biden’s ability to govern and effectively pass legislation.

L'articolo Trump Urges Georgia to Overturn Election Result in Bombshell Conversation proviene da InsideOver.

Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States. According to CNN, NBC, Fox News, and the AP, he prevailed against incumbent Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania and thus obtained the required majority in the electorate.

The Key Role of the Keystone State

The state of Pennsylvania was decisive for Biden’s success. Biden was able to prevail against Trump and thus achieve the required majority in the electorate. While four states are still counting votes, Biden now has obtained 290 electoral votes, with 270 required for victory. Trump remains unchanged at 214 electoral votes.

In the days before the election, the signs were increasingly pointing to Biden’s victory. However, in states such as Pennsylvania, a neck-and-neck race transpired until the last votes were counted.

Biden: ‘I Will Be a President for All Americans’

In an initial response on Twitter, Biden said he was honored. “We have hard work ahead of us,” he wrote. “But I promise you, I will be a president for all Americans – whether you voted for me or not.”

In a separate statement, Biden said it was time to unite and heal the country. “Now that the campaign is over, it is time to leave the anger and harsh rhetoric behind and come together as a nation.” He went on to write, “We are the United States of America. And there is nothing we cannot do if we do it together.”

Trump’s Reaction to Biden’s Victory

Meanwhile, Trump is still not inclined to accept Biden’s victory. According to the president, no state has formally confirmed Biden as a winner. There will be recounts, primarily in the contested states, and his election campaign team has “submitted valid and lawful legal challenges, the president continued.

A recount of votes cast in Georgia is indeed conceivable, as Trump and Biden are less than 0.5 percentage points apart. In this case, the state’s electoral law requires a recount.

However, the state has yet to conclude the counting, and Biden’s lead is likely to increase, not decrease due to it.

Trump Team to Begin Taking Legal Action to Dispute Results

From Monday on, Trump’s campaign team will also start taking legal action against the counts.

Trump and his team complain above all that election observers were allegedly kept away from the counting room and that some illegal ballot papers were cast. Neither the president nor his team provided valid evidence for either allegation. The chances of success of his team’s lawsuits are accordingly low.

Biden Supporters Celebrate

Just seconds after several US media had declared Biden the winner of the election cheers broke out in many major cities across the country. On the streets of New York and Washington, people clapped and screamed with joy. Hundreds flocked to Times Square and Black Lives Matter Plaza to celebrate.

Congratulations to Biden quickly came from all over the world, such as Paris, Berlin, and London. The leaders of the EU also called for a closer transatlantic partnership. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on Twitter on Saturday:

“The EU Commission is ready to intensify cooperation with the new government and the new Congress” to address challenges such as the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, digital transformation, Address security, and the multilateral system.

Historical Election

It is an election that will go down in history. Not only due to President’s Trump unprecedented conduct or because Joe Biden received the most votes of all time, but also because Senator Kamala Harris is now the first woman and black American to take over the office of vice president. In an initial reaction to the election victory, she promised the citizens that she would serve the country with Biden.

“This election is about so much more than Joe Biden and me. It’s about the soul of America and our willingness to fight for it,” she wrote on Twitter. “We have a lot of work to do. Let’s get started.”

The work for President-elect Biden has already started. According to media reports, he wants to present a council of experts to contain the coronavirus pandemic on Monday.

The establishment of the body before the announcement of the personnel election for the first cabinet positions underscores the importance Biden plans to give to the fight against the pandemic in his first year in office.

L'articolo Joe Biden Beats Donald Trump for the Presidency proviene da InsideOver.

The Rust Belt used to be the industrial heart of the US. President Trump exceeded expectations here in 2016 as he promised to revitalize the struggling region and create jobs and prosperity. Four years later, these promises are on the ballot for many in the region, and the polls ought to concern the incumbent.

Where is the Rust Belt?

The Rust Belt area begins in New York State and runs west through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, Indiana and Michigan. It ends in northern Illinois, eastern Iowa, and southeast Wisconsin. It was formerly home to America’s most important and core industries, such as steel and automobile manufacturing, and once comprised the nation’s industrial heartland. However, it has seen a sharp decline in recent decades due to the increased cost of domestic labor and capital-intensive manufacturing.

To this day many manufacturers in the Rust Belt are still utilizing expensive and outdated equipment and machinery and struggle with local labor and materials. To compensate for this, the majority of them began to look elsewhere for cheaper steel and labor, namely from foreign sources.

Globalization’s Pressure on the Rust Belt

Globalization also led to increased capital flows in the US capital markets. This benefited the US service sector but contributed to a higher dollar and less competitive US industries. While once a hub for people from the rest of the country and from abroad, the increasing crisis led to an exodus of people from the region. Hundreds of thousands of well-paid worker jobs have been eliminated, forcing people to move away, searching for work and better living conditions.

As a result, the Rust Belt is now dominated by a declining US manufacturing industry. The economic losses, falling population and ruination of cities like Detroit created a deep crisis consisting of a shrinking population, falling incomes, spiking social issues, and high unemployment in the once-booming area.

Key Swing States in the Rust Belt

Several political swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan are part of the Rust Belt. Since these states are often the deciding factor in presidential elections, the Rust Belt plays a crucial role in US politics.

The population structure, which is characterized by white industrial workers, used to be considered a stronghold of the Democrats and part of the so-called “blue wall.” Donald Trump shattered the blue wall in 2016, which made his election possible.

Four years ago, Trump’s strategy was to promise these people a better future. However, not much of it has materialized.

Trump’s Unfulfilled Economic Promises to the Rust Belt

One of Trump’s significant economic policies over the past two years has been protectionism. He introduced 25 percent tariffs on steel imports from China and Europe in 2018, claiming this would help domestic steelmakers reduce competition from imports and cut several regulations the Obama administration had introduced.

The US steel industry temporarily ramped up production – and then quickly went down again – and with it the prices. Although the volume of steel imports has decreased, there is little evidence that the domestic steel industry and its workers actually benefit from Trump’s policies.

While employment and wage growth continued nationally under Trump, unemployment in the steel industry in the Rust Belt states had remained significant, even before COVID-19 hit the economy. Before the corona pandemic in March 2020, the unemployment rate was around six percent – as it was when Trump took office in January 2017. But the many well-paid new jobs that Trump had promised, do not exist, especially not in the steel industry.

‘Promises Made, Promises Kept?’ Hardly

Thus, one cannot speak of “promises made, promises kept,” and the polls reflect this. In almost every Rust Belt state, Biden’s lead is either comfortable or, at best, the situation is a coin toss between the incumbent and the challenger Joe Biden.

What these polls are actually worth will be seen on Tuesday, when the same workers are asked to vote and put their faith in either Trump for a second term or Biden for a first. One thing is for certain: neither of them can win the elections without strong support in the Rust Belt states.

L'articolo What is the Rust Belt and Why Does it Matter on Election Day? proviene da InsideOver.

An unverified piece in the New York Post is the latest and perhaps final attempt to discredit Joe Biden. But the origin of the information is dubious, and alleged corruption in Ukraine is what led to Trump’s impeachment trial last year.

October Surprises, meaning scandals and revelations that are deliberately made public in October, just a few weeks or days before the election, are a fascinating tradition in American politics.

Donald Trump’s allies launched one of those October surprises the previous week, to harm rival candidate Biden. However, it has become apparent that the alleged scandal might be a fabrication or an unconfirmed conspiracy theory.

Recycled Allegations

On Wednesday, October 21, the New York Post published the piece in question. It alleges that Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, had incriminating information on his laptop, which he had turned in for repair at a computer store. These materials – according to the piece – suggest that then-Vice President Biden used his position to personally enrich himself and met a top consultant from the Ukrainian energy company Burisma, on whose board of directors Biden’s son sat at the time. Biden’s team has repeatedly stated such a meeting neither took place nor was it planned.

The president’s allies are trying to utilize the story to show that Biden had abused his position to give his son and his company an advantage in the Ukrainian government – and that he lied when he said he was from kept away from his son’s business relationships. Essentially the story aims to portrait Biden – and indeed his family – as corrupt. The president vehemently attempted to voice the accusations during last week’s debate.

Platforms such as Twitter and Facebook and various media such as the Washington Post or the New York Times have since tried to verify the story’s authenticity to no avail. Twitter and Facebook even restricted the article’s distribution on their platforms as long as the information’s origin was not clarified nor verified.

The Wall Street Journal Did Not Buy the Story

The origin of the material is indeed controversial. The New York Post announced that it had heard of the material from Steve Bannon and received it from Rudolph Giuliani. Steve Bannon, former head of the right-wing populist medium Breitbart news and former Trump Chief Strategist, is currently on trial for money laundering and fraud. Giuliani, Trump’s lawyer, has already attracted attention in the past for his proclivity for false information and conspiracy theories.

Perhaps even more indicative is that the Trump team initially offered the story to the conservative Wall Street Journal. The latter refused as it was unable to verify the information. Giuliani then contacted the New York Post. Here, the author did not want to publish his byline in the article, reportedly due to credibility concerns, while the woman, whose byline appears in the article, claims to have nothing to do with the story. Moreover, several intelligence experts told the Washington Post that they were skeptical about the material’s authenticity.

The story possesses all the characteristics of a carefully planned information operation intended to influence the American election. Indeed, the current revelation appears like a déjà vu from 2016, when Russian intelligence officials hacked and published hundreds of emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager on WikiLeaks to help Donald Trump’s campaign.

It is all the more remarkable that the Trump campaign ventured down the Ukraine path again. After all, the alleged Biden-Ukraine conspiracy led to Trump’s impeachment proceedings at the end of last year.

Most importantly, two Republican-led Senate committees investigated the Bidens’ alleged corruption – including via Trump administration officials under oath – and arrived at the same conclusion: Joe Biden was merely pursuing official US policy towards Ukraine.

Strategic Mistakes and Why the Story Matters Nonetheless

The message the “Laptop from Hell” reveals is hence not the existence of a “Biden crime family”, but rather a testimony of the Trump campaign’s strategic failures.

The latter had first focussed on portraying Biden as a socialist, then as a puppet of Bernie Sanders. Neither stuck. Next was the claim that Biden was a drooling, senile fool, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, never mind leading the country. The result remained the same. In the end, the Trump campaign attempted to utilize and recycle claims of corruption against Biden.

However, in these times of COVID-19, with more than 200.000 Americans dead and the most devastating financial crisis since perhaps the Great Depression, the strategy was always destined to fail. Senator Ted Cruz summed it up perfectly: has no time nor interest to engage in an unconfirmed Hunter Biden story, that, according to Republican Senator Ted Cruz, “will not move a single voter.”

The story matters nonetheless, albeit in a different sense than intended. The mainstream and establishment news outlets were pawns in 2016, detrimental to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. This year, they drew a line and obliged by their journalistic duty which is to attempt to verify the story. The result is a Joe Biden corruption case that circulates exclusively within the Breitbart and Fox News opinion bubble.

L'articolo The Irrelevance of Hunter Biden’s ‘Laptop from Hell’ proviene da InsideOver.

US President Donald Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden are both preparing for their closing debate to be held this evening at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. Courtesy of a rule change, the debate should be slightly more civilized than the first. But there is sure to be no shortage of controversies.

New Rules to Cut Out Interruptions

The Presidential Debate Commission announced Monday evening measures in response to the constant interruptions affecting the first presidential debate last month. Trump and Biden’s microphones will be temporarily muted while the other is speaking during the final presidential debate to ensure each candidate can get their points across without interruption.

Those who expect cultivated silence, as a result, will be disappointed. Firstly, the candidates’ microphones are only off during the two-minutes of answering time but are on for the remainder of the debate to allow open discussion. Secondly, the debate’s topics (i.e., “Fighting COVID-19,” American Families, “Race in America, “Climate Change,” National Security, and “Leadership”) offer plenty of ammunition for both sides.

Trump Campaign Slams New Debate Rules

The Trump campaign was not pleased with either of these points. In a letter to the commission on Monday, it criticized the muting of the microphones and the choice of topics.

“It is completely unacceptable for anyone to wield such power, and a decision to proceed with that change amounts to turning further editorial control of the debate over to the Commission which has already demonstrated its partiality to Biden,” said the letter, signed by Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien.

So far, one of the three presidential debates used to focus on foreign policy and security issues. This is where the president sees his primary strengths. However, with the debate topics being much broader, he will once again be faced with issues that have proven detrimental to his approval ratings, mainly handling the pandemic and the racial tensions in the country.

Trump: “It is Very Unfair”

When asked earlier this week whether he would still take part in the debate, Trump said: “I will participate. I just think it is very unfair. “I will participate, but it is very unfair that they changed the topics, and it is very unfair that again we have an anchor who is totally biased.”

The anchor in question is Kristen Welker. Over these past days, the president continuously accused her of being biased. On Saturday, he tweeted that she was “awful and unfair.” Trump also shared an article in the New York Post claiming to reveal links between Welker and the Democratic Party, citing her parents’ donations to Democratic candidates and previous registration with the party. In response, NBC stated that Welker was not a party member, pointing out that Trump’s campaign advisor Jason Miller described Welker as “very fair” and “a very good choice.”

The Current Polls Show Biden Far Ahead of Trump Including in Key Swing States

For Trump, the debate is the final opportunity to present himself and his achievements of the previous four years to almost 100 million Americas who will likely turn in. Trump continues to trail Biden nationally by a significant margin (52.2 to 41.9 percent). Even more importantly, Biden leads most swing states comfortably.

One should thus expect Trump to be in full-on attack mode in tonight’s debate.

There is little doubt that it will get ugly. This is something one could already assume over the past few days when the traditional October surprise appeared right on time – at least according to the Trump campaign: the Hunter Biden laptop affair.

The story, published by the New York Post and whose author has rather dubious connections and possible credibility issues, was initially labeled as likely part of a Russian disinformation campaign by several outlets, including former intelligence officials like former director of national intelligence and perjurer James Clapper.

However, the Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe, has contested these allegations and stated that the laptop and revelations about Hunter Biden are not Russian disinformation. There is no doubt the president will interjecting the topic into the debate and making it his primary attack angle. It makes the rule change all the more critical.

L'articolo The Right to Remain Silent: What to Expect from the Final Presidential Debate proviene da InsideOver.

After the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump went down not only in infamy but in history last week, it will now be up to running mates Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris, to convince the American people.

Snapshot of Vice-Presidential Debates

The first vice presidential debate dates back to 1976, and for the vast majority, they trailed in viewership behind the presidential debates. In 2016, 37 million people watched the vice-presidential debate between then-Indiana Governor Pence and Senator Tim Kaine, comprising 44% less than the audience for the lowest-rated Clinton-Trump presidential debate of 2016, which had a viewership of 66.5 million.

The only exception to this rule was in 2008, when more people (69.9 million) watched the vice-presidential debate between Senator Biden and Governor Sarah Palin than those who watched any of the three debates between Senator Obama and Senator John McCain.

How Important are VP Debates in Swaying Voters?

However, despite the still high ratings, the debate – so far – does not seem to pose much significance for voters historically and seldom influences voter’s decisions. A 2012 Gallup study concluded that in presidential campaigns between 1976 and 2008, debates rarely altered voter support for a Republican or Democratic vice-presidential candidate by more than a percentage point or two.

In 2010, a study published in Presidential Study Quarterly confirmed this trend. Between 1968 and 2008, VP candidates influenced less than 1 percent of the cases on whether voters changed their political decisions, meaning those who switched from one party and candidate to the other after the debate.

The Unique Nature of the Upcoming Debate

The debate that takes place on Wednesday, October 7, at 9 p.m. Eastern Standard Time will be unlike any other past VP debate, however. The circumstances are unique. Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, the country’s crisis, and the fact that both the incumbent and challenger are 74 and 77 years old, respectively, are a clear reminder that either Pence or Harris could find themselves as Commander-in-Chief before the next executive terms finishes in 2024.

Starting with John Adams, who succeeded George Washington in 1797, fourteen Vice Presidents became the Commander in Chief – though for different reasons. A scenario in which either Harris or Pence is next on that list is by no means inconceivable, and hence the stakes for the debate are arguably higher than usual.

What to Expect in This Debate

If last week’s debate was an indicator of what to expect, the public ought to expect carnage. However, anyone expecting the kind of reality show similar to that between Trump and Biden is likely to be disappointed. Harris is going to be aggressive but will not reach a Trumpian standard, nor will Pence counter-attack by telling her to “shut up” or calling her “a clown.” Instead, one might even learn about a political vision, and both participants are potentially able to conclude a sentence – also a pleasant change from the previous week.

For the aforementioned reasons, both candidates are under considerable pressure. Due to Biden’s age, Americans are rightfully interested in whether Harris is presidential material. During the debate, Harris hence needs to conduct a balancing act. One the one hand, she needs to utilize her rhetorical skills but has to exude a certain (presidential) gravitas. On the other hand, this accomplished immigrants’ daughter has to motivate other people of color to vote. That, in turn, requires aggressiveness.

Hitting Pence in His Weak Spot

Harris’ agenda is likely to expose Pence’s primary handicap. Since April, as head of the White House’s coronavirus task force, he has regularly forecasted that the pandemic would end soon. In May, he spoke of “enormous progress” in the fight against the virus. In the meantime, more than 200,000 Americans have now died of COVID-19 and, since last week, various Trump staffers and other Republicans have contracted the virus after an event in the Rose Garden announcing new SCOTUS pick Amy Coney Barrett. Harris will very likely address all of these topics and more.

Pence is a Skilled Debater and Politician

With that being said, Pence also has several advantages over Harris. After four years at Trump’s side, he has tremendous experience with key political challenges, particularly those related to the economy and foreign policy. Moreover, Pence has already had a vice-presidential debate. In 2016 he debated Tim Kaine and distinguished himself as a veritable candidate who knew how to defend the then-presidential candidate Trump skillfully.

Pence has been a highly talented politician throughout his career, and he certainly does not consider the vice presidency to be the apogee of his career. One can anticipate him to continuously reiterate not only on Trump’s success but also on his role, all to establish himself as a future president – and it will be on Harris to poke holes in that narrative.

Two Competing Perspectives

Harris cannot win a debate on experience. She has only been in Washington since 2017, marginalized in a Republican-controlled Senate. She appeared in debates when she ran for Senator and Attorney General and the Democratic Primaries. However, the bottom line is that Harris runs on talent and prospects, not on experience and policy success.

For Harris, Wednesday is a casting in which she is not merely advocating for Biden and his presidential qualities, but for herself and the possible scenario of becoming the first female and African-American president in American history. On the other hand, Pence will do his utmost best to defend Donald Trump and the status quo – also with at least one eye on the actual potential prize: the presidency.

L'articolo Talent vs. Status Quo: Why the Vice Presidential Debate Matters proviene da InsideOver.

Donald Trump loses one of his most important campaign tools with the announcement of his COVID infection: his public appearances. This is a disaster considering the president needed to throw the kitchen sink at his challenger Joe Biden over these next five weeks.

The Coming Weeks Could Decide the Election

The White House set out a roadmap for these last weeks before election day, including Trump rallies in key states such as Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The president was set to speak to his supporters and turn his campaign around. On Friday, the Trump team canceled these appearances. The impact could be severe. 

It did not come as a surprise, however. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) official stipulation is that anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 must be in quarantine for at least ten days, depending on the disease’s course.

Ten days may not sound significant. However, with 30 days until the election and the president trailing in all relevant polls, ten could end up being the deciding factor. More importantly, these ten days is the minimum, and depending on the president’s health status, even restrictions may or may not apply beyond.

How Sick is Trump?

According to the White House, Trump is showing mild symptoms, and the coming days will indicate how the infection progresses, according to the statement on Friday morning. However, by late Friday afternoon, it was announced that the president went to the Walter Reed Medical Center to stay there for “a few days”. The only certainty in this is that nobody currently knows what impact the virus will have on the president, which automatically puts significant question marks on his campaign. 

Friday’s events are a shock for the Trump campaign and may have sealed the president’s defeat. Not only can Trump not fuel his base personally but collecting campaign donations will now become more difficult. Moreover, further infections in Trump’s campaign have occurred, including campaign manager Bill Stepien and other GOP operatives as well as Trump staffers.

Various Theories About Trump’s Illness

The fact that the president is infected can moreover, be assessed differently in political and tactical terms. On the one hand, it’s about Trump’s credibility. His illness leads the president’s previous negligent attitude towards the coronavirus to absurdity. On the other hand, some already suspect the infection as a political scam, to use a possible, quickly overcome infection to downplay the virus again and praise his fitness ultimately. 

Others even go as far as suggesting that Trump could have just made up the infection as a political maneuver. A post by filmmaker Michael Moore, for example, pointed out Trump’s numerous proven lies and warned that Trump could use the infection – real or not – to postpone the election.

The latter, of course, is not only a preposterous claim by Moore but also inconceivable. The hurdles for postponing the election are incredibly high because the date has been set by law since 1845. A change would need congressional approval, which would arguably be challenged in court.

Most importantly, the House of Representatives is controlled by the Democrats who will have no interest in postponing Biden’s election since he is in the lead in the polls. Moreover, there would only be a few weeks to be gained in this way, because the rest of the schedule is laid down in the constitution and is therefore even more rigid.

Moreover, the disease is detrimental to Trump’s status quo as it will likely prevent him from conducting major political decisions shortly before the election. The latter concerns – inter alia – the delicate question of the appointment of the next Supreme Court Justice and Trump’s campaign against mail-in voting is likely also brought to a halt. Moreover, the two remaining presidential debates with Joe Biden – the next one scheduled on October 15 – will likely be canceled or altered in their format.

Trump Has No Reason to Fake an Illness

Thus, the benefit of staging an infection appears non-existent – unless the president has pretty much conceded defeat and attempt to establish an excuse – which appears rather far-fetched, even for today’s standards.

How severe the impact of the illness on the election campaign will depend on how the president recovers from the virus. Since there is no obligation to make the state of health of the president public, one ought not to expect detailed (read: necessarily truthful) daily updates. However, an unexplained prolonged absence of the president would inevitably lead to an even bigger political crisis close to the election. Moreover, any attempt to hide severe damage to Trump’s health, as was the case in 1919 after President Woodrow Wilson’s stroke, appears problematic to facilitate these days considering the leaking that has been omnipotent in Trump’s White House.

Can Trump Still Stage a Political Comeback?

On the bright side, if Trump’s illness remains mild, his campaign could somewhat be organized from quarantine. Tweet, stream speeches, interviews on Fox, all of which are possible. However, these are no substantial prerequisites for Trump, who needed to find a spark to transform a lackluster campaign into a winner through his presence and direct contact with his base.

Perhaps even more importantly, there does seem to be any political advantage to Trump’s infection. When Ronald Reagan got shot in 1981, the whole nation seemed to turn Republican and displayed its solidarity with the president. Reagan’s approval ratings rose to 73 percent. However, the degree of schadenfreude and outright repulsive hate communicated by many of the public since Friday does not indicate an increase in approval. A Reagan effect hence appears utterly inconceivable, and the chances for a second term are now declining with any day the president is not actively campaigning.  

L'articolo How His COVID Diagnosis Changes the Election for Trump proviene da InsideOver.

It’s still over a month before we know whether President Donald Trump will get reelected or whether challenger Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States. What is known, however, is that this election has the potential to push the country into a severe constitutional crisis, as the president has continuously questioned its validity.

The actual result could perhaps never precisely be determined, according to Trump. It is a message that aims at two particular goals.

Why is Trump Highlighting Doubts About Electoral Integrity?

Trump has repeatedly expressed doubts about the election results due to the new and unprecedented number of unsolicited ballots sent to voters this year. Due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, a massive increase in postal votes is expected in the elections on November 3. Mail-in voting is considered to be very safe and established — after all, it has been used since the times of the Civil War. Republicans, in particular, have had extremely positive experiences with the procedure. In the 2016 US election, almost one in four voters voted by post without any noteworthy irregularities.

Because of his repeated attacks, Trump has been accused of sowing doubts about the election’s legitimacy, which could lead to an unprecedented test of American democracy. In line with this, Trump has repeatedly left open when asked by journalists whether he would concede defeat — most recently in the first debate against Joe Biden on Tuesday, September 29. If he wasn’t to concede, anything is possible afterward. And what Bill Maher insinuated two years ago — namely that Trump would not leave the White House even if he were defeated — has become a conceivable scenario. This is despite all this taking place in a country in which constitutional checks and balances have long been regarded as a protection mechanism against authoritarian elements.

Trump is Likely to Lose the Election

A loss against Biden is quite likely and in all the relevant polls, the incumbent is trailing. Thus, Trump has been preparing the ground for a possible defeat not to be recognized by already questioning the legitimacy of the election results. Trump’s message to his supporters is clear: either he wins on November 3, or the election was rigged. It’s a similar strategy to what he utilized against Clinton in 2016 also.

The President likes to refer to momentum and the support his base provides. His supporters would go to the polling station, but his opponents might forego it, and only cast their vote for Biden if it can be done conveniently by letter. So Trump fears that it could be made too easy for Biden voters. He seeks to keep voter turnout as low as possible because he expects a low turnout to be advantageous to his potential victory. The Constitutional crisis he is conjuring up due to his rhetoric seems to be irrelevant, collateral damage in his quest for reelection from his perspective.

What Will Happen on Election Day?

If the result on election night is close, one can expect that the election outcome will be contested. The American electoral system has a two-step counting process. In a first step, the 50 states plus the District of Columbia capital district determine the presidential candidate who received the most votes. Then, in a second step, the electoral votes are distributed to the respective winner. According to the relevant law, all electors meet on December 14 to choose the formal winner of the presidential election in the Electoral College. Hence, Trump would have enough time to sabotage the process between election day on November 3 and the Electoral College meeting.

Ultimately, the Supreme Court could step in. In a dispute over the outcome of the election, it could take on the arbiter’s role if the conservative majority agrees. The last time this happened was in the 2000 presidential election year when George W. Bush ran against Al Gore.

In any case, Trump has already weakened confidence in the system to such an extent that he will present himself as the winner no matter what happens. Even if Joe Biden wins and moves into the White House, a large number of Trump voters will consider him illegitimate and believe the election was rigged.

The damage currently being caused will be difficult to repair no matter what the outcome is on election day.

L'articolo Why is Trump Continuing to Question the Election’s Validity? proviene da InsideOver.

Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was an all-out brawl of incoherent insanity.

Banana Republic Brouhaha

Held in Cleveland, Ohio, the debate “moderated” by Fox News‘ Chris Wallace was supposed to be focused on the candidates’ records as well as the pandemic, the Supreme Court, economic performance, ongoing violence and racial tension across the country.

Instead the evening was focused on trying to hear what anyone was actually saying over the constant interruptions from Trump – and occasionally from Biden – and the endless, rapid digressions, accusations and lies.

It’s hard to overstate the manic meltdown that occurred during the debate. The bumbling brouhaha seemed more fitting to a banana republic and had about as much substance as peeling wallpaper. At times watching the verbal assault taking place onstage was genuinely nauseating.

Trump thoroughly overpowered Biden, heckling him minutes into the debate and undercutting everything he said two or three words into every sentence.

“Will you shut up, man?” Biden said at one point, cowering.

One-Way Bullet Train to Crazytown

The two gabbling garrulous gerontocrats duked it out onstage in front of an audience just under 100 who had been carefully screened for coronavirus at a clinic across the street. Trump, who was recently nominated for a third Nobel Peace Prize faced down the Delaware Senator as the debate went steadily off the rails into crazytown.

Sticking by standard politics and doing the “talking to the folks back home” tactic simply wasn’t effective in the hyperspeed schoolyard antics on display. Politics has becoming pro wrestling and the Hunter S. Thompson-esque fever dream of Tuesday night was sincerely alarming – not for reasons of “civility” and “norms” but because of how unintelligible most of it was even for political insiders.

This was even a step up from the 2016 Trump vs. Clinton debates which at least had some genuine repartee. This debate, by contrast, was like watching a scrolling stream of angry and nonsensical YouTube comments posted by howling monkeys.

Trump had several strong moments such as when talking about Democratic conspiring to take down his presidency which has now been revealed in documents and Biden fumbled several softballs such as lying about Hunter Biden taking money, flip-flopping on whether he supports the Green New Deal and refusing to answer about court packing, but most of the debate was just half-cocked statements from the President and attempts to redirect the discussion into personal attacks on Biden and his family.

This included a near-constant stream of misinformation and throwaway one-liners from Trump such as his bizarre lie that he has made insulin “so cheap, it’s like water.”

Not Learning the Lessons of 2016

The Democrats have apparently not learned much from 2016. Biden had several strong moments but mostly seemed out of his element as he was assailed constantly the whole night and let himself be bullied and talked down by Trump.

During the last election Trump partly one by making the race visceral and instinctive rather than rational or conversational. The Democratic inability to understand that and come up with a more aggressive candidate than Biden shows a remarkable lack of will to win or a perception of what politics has become.

Respectability politics is out and garbled answers on antifa and street violence aren’t going to cut it or reassure voters. However, more to the point, whose minds will actually be changed by watching this debate? If anything it will simply add new worries to Biden voters that he’s not up to the job and that his administration will simply be a Trojan horse for other people’s policies — which, incidentally was a core insinuation of many of Trump’s accusations during the “debate.”

Biden is stuck in an unwinnable political position between the progressive left and the center during a time of crisis. He may still win the election but if he does it will only be by default.

The Big Loser

The big loser of Tuesday night was indisputably Chris Wallace who managed to be completely overpowered by Trump despite trying to placate him (by telling Trump certain questions would make him “happy”) and then visibly siding with Biden on multiple occasions.

Wallace also interjected with his own opinions frequently, incorrectly referring to critical race theory as “racial sensitivity training” when in fact it’s a jobs program for radicals. Wallace also frequently regurgitated stale Democratic talking points to try to give Biden a lift as he flailed behind the podium.

Despite these hands up, Biden had many misses, failing to explain what it means to “reimagine” the police and blaming Trump for lack of economic growth while also saying more should have been done to shutdown to fight the coronavirus.

What’s Next?

Next up, there will be a debate between Vice-President Mike Pence and Vice-Presidential nominee Kamala Harris on October 7 in Salt Lake City, Utah.

For those with a strong stomach, the next presidential debate is set for Oct. 15 in Miami with a final presidential debate to be held ten days prior to the election on Oct. 22 in Nashville, Tennessee.

L'articolo Biden Debates Trump in Banana Republic Brouhaha proviene da InsideOver.

The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Sept. 18 has shaken up the 2020 election and is sure to plunge an already dramatic election year into a raging political firestorm. Already dealing with riots, massive forest fires, economic problems and a global pandemic, the United States now faces an election that might actually be the most important in many people’s lifetimes — and not just in the way that the line has been previously employed for the sake of political rhetoric to get voters to the polls.

A conservative replacement will be appointed soon. US President Donald Trump will reportedly nominate a woman to SCOTUS this coming week.

RBG’s Record

Ginsburg took her seat on SCOTUS in 1993 under President Bill Clinton and served there almost three decades. She was often part of the dissenting opinions as conservatives held a 5-4 voting majority for many years, bolstering the image of her as a feisty fighter and underdog.

RBG was a committed progressive who was staunchly in favor of abortion rights and legislating for increased labor protections and rights protections for women and minorities. Her dissenting opinions became well-known for their fiery conviction about gender equality, including landmark rulings on a women’s right to administer estates and get survivor benefits when their husband died.

Cases such as these and more made RBG into a feminist and progressive icon as she rose up the ranks and became prominent in the national eye.

Who Will Trump Pick?

Trump will most likely select Barbara Lagoa or Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacant SCOTUS seat. Both picks have various advantages. Both are socially conservative, devout Catholics, but there are some compelling reasons in favor of each from the right-wing perspective.

Barrett works for the US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in Chicago since being put there by Trump in 2017 and previously clerked for Justice Scalia. She’s a former law professor who is believed to be committed to overturning landmark abortion ruling Roe vs. Wade. 

Lagoa has more judicial experience than Barrett and was put on the 3rd District Court of Appeals by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in 2006. She moved to the US Court of Appeals for the 11th District in 2019 under orders from Trump. Lagoa is conservative, but is not as strongly opinionated on Roe vs. Wade. As a Cuban-American from Miami, however, she could also help solidify Trump’s growing support among Hispanic Americans and help him win the key state of Florida.

Left characterizations of Barrett as a “Catholic extremist” tend to tip the scales in favor of her being chosen by Trump. Furthermore, choosing Barrett would allow Trump to jeopardize much of the media and Democratic party’s emphasis on Biden’s Catholic faith. Is Hunter Biden also a “Catholic extremist” for having a large family? Is Biden a “good Catholic” for being liberal but Barrett is a “bad Catholic”? These are exactly the kind of litmus tests that will further sink the already disastrously falling support for Democrats among Hispanics and other portions of the electorate.

Republicans Want to Fill RBG’s Seat ASAP

Trump is promising that RBG’s seat will be filled quickly, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has pledged to confirm Trump’s appointee, although there’s no guarantee that will happen before election day on November 3. In order to confirm the pick the Republicans would have to be singularly unified without losing more than three party member confirmation votes.

Senators do not like being pressured on SCOTUS appointees and generally like to take their time to make a lifetime appointment to the vitally important court, and there’s a chance that the GOP could lose more votes than it could afford from Senators who are already finishing up their political career anyway, don’t support the pick, and don’t care any longer about the political suicide of not voting to confirm a new conservative justice.

Regardless, progressive fury at the perceived Republican hypocrisy will be intense. President Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court in the spring of 2016 was declined by the Republican-controlled Congress who insisted that the presidential election must be finished before a SCOTUS nomination could move forward. Conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch was put in the seat in 2017.

McConnell wouldn’t move forward then on the other party’s pick, but he will now on his own party’s selection.

This should not surprise anyone, particularly as federal politics has slid into an all-out brawl in the past few years and Democratic tactics have become increasingly intense and gloves-off as they seek to oust Trump from office. There is no reason to expect the GOP to play fair or adhere to standards of political civility at this point.

Biden has already emphasized that the nomination should not take place until this presidential election is decided, but has declined to put out a list of who he would potentially nominate were he to become president. It is also possible that Democrats will put through some legislation to make it easier to pass laws in the Senate and allow them to possibly expand the Supreme Court and end the impending Republican power play.

More Possible Choices to Replace Ginsburg

Although reports say Trump has narrowed it down to Barrett or Lagoa, other women on the shortlist include Bridget Bade from the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, Martha Pacold from the US District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Sarah Pitlyk from the US District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, deputy White House counsel Kate Todd, Joan Larsen of the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, Britt Grant of the US Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit and Allison Jones Rushing of the US Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.

It is always possible that Trump will go with one of these women instead, as he is known for his unpredictability and has already changed his mind on a SCOTUS pick, having previously remarked he’d put Senator Ted Cruz in but recently announcing that it will be a woman instead.

Political Calculus

The Republicans could have held off on naming a replacement in order to further intensify the election and boost evangelical and socially conservative turnout. Making the 2020 election a referendum on Roe vs. Wade and whether the GOP would get the chance to put a conservative on the bench under a re-elected President Trump would have strongly enthused many right-leaning voters.

However, naming a replacement now has several advantages for the GOP. Firstly it can be seen as another feather in Trump’s cap and another win for voters to reflect on when they cast their ballot. Secondly, the Democratic party and left-leaning electoral meltdown that is sure to come as a replacement is named and vetted will likely provide unrest, dramatic rhetoric and behavior that will actually decrease support for the Democrats in crucial swing states and boost Republican voter turnout.

RBG’s reported statement prior to her death that she wishes above all that a replacement not be appointed until a new president is “installed” will further inflame angry progressives and intensify their threats and accusations of rank hypocrisy from Republicans for their previous refusal to allow Garland to proceed forward onto SCOTUS.

Various celebrities and establishment liberal figures have already made outlandish and possibly illegal statements inciting violence and promising that they’ll die before they allow the GOP to put in a replacement for RBG and “burn the entire f–ing thing down,” in the words of TV host Reza Aslan, for example.

What’s Next?

If Trump nominates Barrett the media and national uproar will be considerable. The hearings will be intensely partisan and bitter, but the election would be clearly tipped in Trump’s favor. Even a less contentious pick than Barrett is likely to result in a meltdown by coastal elites and progressives. Look for late night talk shows and other broadcast mediums for coastal folks to go absolutely bonkers, and don’t be surprised to see increased street-level agitation and unrest.

The United States is now in the unenviable position of melting down over race relations and politics with a contentious Supreme Court hearing on the horizon. No matter what happens, the death of RBG is likely to go down as a pivotal point in US history and what comes next is likely to be dramatic on the political and popular level.

Trump got a major boost in 2016 with the chance to fill the Supreme Court with a conservative justice, and his later appointments of Gorsuch to replace Scalia and Brett Kavanaugh to replace Anthony Kennedy helped bring many evangelicals and social conservatives over to his side and see him as a winner who gets things done. The death of RBG is likely to be what wins Trump the 2020 election and assists his administration in reshaping the federal bench to become more conservative across the board.

L'articolo RBG’s Death and the 2020 Election proviene da InsideOver.