He smashed Labour’s so-called ‘Red Wall’ on Thursday – but now Britain’s Boris Johnson must pick up the pieces. From Dudley in the West Midlands to Sedgefield in England’s North East, former socialist strongholds turned blue as Johnson’s Conservatives swept the board. Brexit undoubtedly played a pivotal role, but honouring the UK’s EU exit vote won’t alone sustain his newfound working-class support. The Prime Minister must fulfil a raft of socially-minded policy pledges, and fast.

“I am humbled that you have put your trust in me,” Mr Johnson said warmly to his party faithful on Friday morning, though the message wasn’t for them. It was for the hundreds of thousands of first-time Tory voters, residents in the seats that once formed Labour’s now ruined Red Wall – a string of supposedly safe Labour constituencies running northward from the Midlands. By and large, they backed Brexit in 2016, and in Boris they see a leader who will fulfil their decision to leave.   

But if the Conservatives are to cling to this new support, they must deliver far more than just the UK’s departure from Europe. Within his first 100 days, Mr Johnson must make clear his government’s shift away from the Tories’ traditional, patrician roots and towards the political centre-ground. 

The National Health Service is of particular concern to the Prime Minister. Keen to head off Labour’s promised NHS spending splurge, Johnson says he’ll enshrine in law an annual funding boost of £34bn, train ten of thousands of new nurses, and build dozens of hospitals. Attractive pledges which no doubt resonated on the doorstep, but critics are not convinced. Of the 40 new hospitals promised, just six have had funding committed – and construction is underway at none. The yearly investment guarantee, though welcome, won’t cover the NHS’s chronic underfunding, experts say also.

Most worrying, however, is the gradual nature of Johnson’s proposals. Britain’s health service is in the throes of crisis. New figures published last week revealed English hospitals’ worst A&E winter performance on record – building new facilities and recruiting for the future, while prudent, does little to address the NHS’s urgent overstretch. Swift action by Number 10 is needed to alleviate the worst of winter’s burden on the health service.

Likewise, Mr Johnson will soon be under pressure to tackle the UK’s shameful social care situation. In July, the Prime Minister promised to publish a “clear plan” of action after successive Tory governments failed to reform the system – but details are yet to be released. Cross-party dialogue will be established to address the sector’s critical shortcomings, the Conservatives have said, but with Opposition parties reeling from their beating at the ballot box, that process could be protracted. 

On criminal justice reform, Johnson will feel more sure of decisive action. Empowered by its parliamentary majority, the government’s tough-on-crime agenda can get underway in earnest. The sentences for sexual and violent crimes will be reworked, removing the current provision that allows for automatic early release.      

The issue seized headlines last month, when a convicted terrorist murdered two individuals near London Bridge. Released after serving half of his sentence for involvement in a bomb-plot, Usman Khan stabbed and killed Saskia Jones and Jack Merritt in a frenzied, unprovoked knife attack on November 29. In response, Johnson pledged to overhaul the UK’s penal system – a move rubbished as “draconian” knee-jerk policy-making by Merritt’s family. 

With immigration policy, the government will hope to be on safer ground. Its much-teased Australian-style points-based system will rank foreign workers according to their professional abilities – and should, in theory, reduce the nation’s net migration. The scheme played well with electoral focus groups, insiders say, but many question whether it can make a seamless shift from Australia’s job market to the UK. Also, given the Prime Minister’s hesitance to enforce a cap on skilled workers, or in other sectors, like hospitality and construction, some analysts have expressed doubts on the scheme’s ability to meaningfully bring numbers down.

Johnson will care little for these critics – emboldened by his electoral bounce, the policy will shortly start its journey to the statute book, as will new legislation on schools funding and better rural phone signal.

L'articolo Beyond Brexit – Boris Johnson’s Foremost Domestic Priorities proviene da InsideOver.

At last week’s BBC Question Time election special, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn stated that if his government were to negotiate its own Brexit deal and offer voters a second referendum on it, he would maintain a neutral stance. One audience member called Liam Shrivastava, who has since been exposed as a Labour communications officer, defended Corbyn’s Brexit stance by claiming Harold Wilson was neutral during the 1975 referendum on the UK’s EEC membership, even though he campaigned to remain in the Common Market at the time.

When it comes to leaving the EU, Labour find themselves equally, if not more divided, than the Tories. They are a pro-EU party led by a man who has always believed Britain should leave the bloc. 61 per cent of Labour’s current MPs represent constituencies that voted to leave the EU, while 68 per cent of Labour voters opted to remain in the bloc. It is understandable why they have struggled to form a coherent policy over the issue for the last three and a half years.

Although Corbyn has failed to declare how he would campaign in a second referendum, his party has finally managed to adopt a clear stance on Brexit. They seek a deal that ensures Britain remains in the Customs Union, is aligned to the Single Market, and protects workers’ rights. On their website, they attack the Tories for threatening to ‘sell the NHS’ and the Liberal Democrats for wanting to overturn a democratic result. Once they have negotiated an agreement with Brussels, they want a second referendum so that it can be approved by the electorate. But their deal is similar to the Norway model – it equates to the UK remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union without a say. It is a position designed to appease Labour Remain voters who cherish the EU’s institutions and Labour Leave electors who want to quit the EU.

Their strategy to appeal to their Remain and Leave voters worked in 2017 when they increased their number of MPs by 31 and denied the Conservatives a majority. This is what they are continuing to do now, only circumstances have changed since then. Labour’s vote is torn between the Brexit Party, the Conservatives who are so far leading in the opinion polls, and the resurgent Liberal Democrats who are promising to cancel Brexit altogether. From Labour’s perspective, they have made a terrible mistake adopting a neutral stance and considering 68 per cent of their voters opted to remain in the EU, they should have campaigned in this general election as a Remain party.

Jo Swinson formed a pact with the Greens and Plaid Cymru to contest a single Remain candidate in 60 constituencies, which means the Liberal Democrats have a chance of retaining seats like Brecon. The Brexit Party have also refused to fight 317 constituencies the Tories won last time, improving their chances of gaining a majority this time.

But if Labour could have united under a Remain banner and formed a pact with other pro-EU parties, they could have caused significant damage to the Conservatives in seats like Worcester, which is currently being contested by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, and in Broxtowe, where the Remain vote was split in 2017 but a single pro-EU candidate has every chance of winning the seat this time.

Corbyn’s neutral Brexit stance may cost him seats elsewhere. The Daily Telegraph reported that Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry is at risk of losing her Islington South and Finsbury constituency to the Liberal Democrats. If Labour formed a pact with other Remain parties under a pro-EU banner, this would be unlikely to happen.

A pro-EU stance from Labour has its risks of further alienating its core Leave voters, but under first-past-the-post, they have more to gain from being a Remain party. Corbyn wants a majority, but ironically he has adopted a Brexit position that could cost him one. Whatever the outcome of this general election, in years to come Labour will regret not being clearer on Brexit sooner.

L'articolo Have Labour Made a Mistake by Not Campaigning as a Pro-EU Party? proviene da InsideOver.

Nigel Farage’s announcement that the Brexit Party will not contest 317 seats won by the Conservatives in the 2017 General Election is a welcome relief for many Tories. Prime Minister Boris Johnson welcomed the former UKIP leader’s decision, claiming it is a ‘recognition that there is only one way to get Brexit done, and that is to vote Conservative.’

Political academic Matthew Goodwin tweeted that it is ‘silly to suggest this does not matter. A lot of motivated reasoning today.’ He added that 35 of the 50 smallest Conservative majorities are in Leave seats. These include former Conservative MP Anna Soubry’s constituency in Broxtowe, where the Tories only won with a slim majority of 863.

Other Leave constituencies where the Brexit Party could have posed a significant threat include Worcester, where former Brexit Minister Robin Walker retained the seat with a 2,490 majority two years ago.

In Hastings and Rye, another Leave seat, former Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd claimed victory with a thin majority of 346. By withdrawing Brexit Party candidates from these seats, Farage has increased the Tories’ chances of retaining them in December.

For those hoping that Britain leaves the EU entirely with a deal in December 2020, Farage has made the right decision. He has recognised that the Brexit Party can cause significant damage to Boris Johnson’s chances of entering 10 Downing Street with a majority. It appears that the Brexit Party leader was offered a peerage in order to stand aside, but he rejected it. This shows that he cares more about his 22-year campaign to ensure the UK leaves the EU than his ego, which Sun columnist and Farage’s close friend Leo McKinstry said blinded his original decision to contest all 650 constituencies.

The former UKIP leader has also realised that Boris’s deal is the best way of ensuring that Britain can achieve a Canada-style free trade agreement, something Farage has been promoting since Vote Leave won the EU Referendum over three years ago. He also accepted that the Prime Minister has no intention of extending the transition period beyond December 2020.

Last week, Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens announced that they agreed a pact to not contest certain constituencies where either party has a strong chance of winning in order to return a Remain alliance to Parliament that can thwart Brexit. It was inevitable that those on the centre-right would have to reach a similar agreement.

However, the Tories should not become overly optimistic. The Economist produced a piece analysing Labour MP Vernon Coaker’s seat of Gedling, a constituency both the Tories and the Brexit Party are contesting. He told the publication that Brexit voters in his constituency are more likely to vote for Farage’s party over the Conservatives. In seats like this, a split vote could damage the Tories’ chances of gaining a substantial majority.

The Liberal Democrats and Labour have already used this pact to their advantage. Corbyn has accused Boris and Farage of a ‘Trump alliance’ that would lead to ‘Thatcherism on steroids.’ Liberal Democrat deputy leader Ed Davey said the Conservatives and the Brexit Party are ‘now one and the same.’ In seats like Cheltenham, which the Liberal Democrats are desperate to gain from the Conservatives, this could push Tory Remainers towards Swinson’s party and cost the Tories this constituency.

The Brexit Party are also standing in SNP seats like Perth and North Perthshire. In 2015, UKIP took 1,110 votes there and prevented the Conservatives from gaining it. Farage’s current party could do the same again.

The Conservatives are right to feel more optimistic since Farage made his announcement, but because the Brexit Party are not standing aside altogether, a majority is not guaranteed yet.

L'articolo Could the Brexit Party Damage the Tories Elsewhere in this Election? proviene da InsideOver.