Growing signs that the ongoing revolt in Lebanon, now in its third week, might turn violent following politicization attempts that aim to change the course of the popular uprising against corruption, austerity measures, deteriorating living standards and traditional political hierarchies. Suspicious local and foreign fingers have been spotted inside the demonstrations encouraging violence against the state. One well-known Lebanese actor, Rafiq Ali Ahmad, went as far as saying ” there’s no revolution without bloodshed, they want blood?  They are most welcome”! His remarks drew much criticism and mockery on social media platforms, reminding people of similar provocations made by some Syrian actors at the outset of the Syrian conflict that have ravaged the country.

Alarm bells as road-blockage paralyzes business

Apart from unfamiliar and sometimes shocking scenes of belly dancers, hubble-bubble make-shift cafes for demonstrators, public kissing footage in some conservative neighborhoods, mounting evidence has emerged of certain political factions and traditional figureheads, whose practices since the end of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war have instigated much of the popular revolution in the first place, trying to ride the uprising and diverge it in a manner that serves their own political agenda.

More alarm bells have been sounded in response to the emergence of foreign personalities and organizations at Lebanon’s sit-ins in recent days, including footage of an American former US embassy staff member in Beirut 2007, Robert Gallagher, giving instructions to demonstrators on how to make their revolt more effective and widespread and form a ‘parallel government in Lebanon, as well as the  large ‘grip’ statue of the infamous originally Serbian- now turned international- Otpor movement believed to have been catalyst to almost ALL regional uprisings of the ‘Arab Spring’ which have brought down regimes and wrecked many nations in recent years. All this and much more is threatening to overturn the popular movement that have paralyzed much of Lebanon’s everyday life and crippled business in the country already suffering huge debt and corruption scandals.

Images of war-torn Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and the civil war in Lebanon itself are still vivid in the minds of many, amid growing  fears of a political vacuum that could completely paralyze the country and provide fertile grounds for a new episode of the ‘ creative chaos’ once preached by former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice following the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri in 2005. The conflicting agendas of Lebanon’s political dynasties and power houses, many of whom are trying hard to manipulate the current popular uprising, pose a serious threat to the country’s fragile civil peace and security.

Main suspects of evil planning

Most notable of such efforts are those of Samir Geagea, leader of the hardline Maronite Lebanese Forces – Geagea is a convicted war criminal accused of many assassinations and 21 documented crimes including killing Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rashid Karami, the son of former president Suleiman Frangieh, the son of former president Kamil Chamoun, the Secretary General of Lebanese Maronite Patriarchate Monsignor Albert Khreish , several senior  Lebanese Army officers and 23 civilians at the ‘River of Death’ bridge during the civil war. Geagea, who was served 11 years of a life sentence in solitary confinement below the Ministry of Defense building in Beirut, was granted amnesty by the newly elected Lebanese Parliament in 2005, following the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

A circulation appeared yesterday in Beirut claiming that Geagea’s man in Zouk suburb, Bashir Yousef Matar, was distributing dirty money among local demonstrators in return for slogans against President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah, as well as deploying some armed groups in the neighborhood waiting for the agreed zero hour to fire at both army soldiers and demonstrators alike, blame the regime and Hezbollah for the attacks and instigate an armed deployment of party forces on the pretext of protecting the popular movement.

Although those claims could not be independently verified, they must have sent strong shivers down the spine of many Lebanese who are still paying the price of the country’s civil war and its political, economic and social ramifications. All four Lebanese Forces ministers in Hariri’s cabinet were instructed to hand in their resignations 19 October, as a reaction to popular uprising that broke out 17 days ago and have swept the country ever since. Geagea, once a supporter of General Aoun, now turned an opponent of the president, has been outspoken about his strong ties with Israel since the 1970 s, particularly during the reign of former Lebanese Phalanges leader and later President Bashir al Gemayel, assassinated in a booby-trapped car on 14 September 1984.

Other prominent political figures trying to ride the popular wave of protests in Lebanon include Former Justice Minister General Ashraf Rifi, in the Sunni stronghold of Tripoli, who masterminds and controls much of what goes on there, finance, arms and commands a hardline militia called “City Guards”. They also include Walid Jumblatt, the controversial fickle- nicknamed ‘ Chameleon’ for frequently changing his political colors and alliances – Druze warlord and leader of the Progressive Socialist Party who is most influential in the Chouf mountain region of Lebanon, close to the Syrian borders. Once a main ally of Syria during its 30-year presence in Lebanon, now one of Damascus’ arch enemy and, along with a number of Hariri’s hardline Sunni MP s, has been a main instigator and supporter of the Syrian, regional as well as international effort to topple the regime of President Bashar al Assad.

Lebanon is now at a crucial crossroad between a new start or going back to the era of insecurity and unrest. However, on the other bank of the country’s political river, joint forces of allied Christian, Shiite and chunks of minor ethnic and religious factions are keeping their guard, ready for an unwanted worst-case scenario, yet determined to prevent another civil war in which everyone, including tentative winners, is an eventual loser.

L'articolo Lebanon’s Revolt: Potential Spread of Violence and Bloodshed proviene da InsideOver.

As hundreds of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Lebanese cities for the third day running, calling for the resignation of the current government as well as the dismantling of all traditional political ruling dynasties, vowing not to leave the streets and end protests until their demands are met. Lebanese demonstrators representing all walks of political, social and religious walks of life seem united in their plea, having completely dropped their factional affiliations and political flags and grouped under the national Lebanese flag. The troubled pro-Saudi prime minister, Saad al Hariri- himself detained by Saudi crown prince MBS in Riyadh last year and forced to submit his resignation from Saudi Arabia at the time- has asked for a 72-hour chance to meet the economic demands of demonstrators against high-level corruption, unprecedented harsh living conditions and daunting economic difficulties which have triggered the current unrest.

Civil war recollections revisited, scenarios feared

While newly proposed taxes on WhatsApp calls sparked off the ongoing nation-wide demonstrations, the real roots of unrest go far deeper than that; decades of political and economic corruption, massive debts and accumulated popular resentment and despair with Lebanon’s traditional political feudalism and warlords who have ruled the country since the end of the 15-year civil war in 1990 with the infamous, sectarian-based Ta’if Agreement signed by warring factions’ leaders in Saudi Arabia, which has since meddled with Lebanon’s political life on the side of Sunni Muslim minority and against the Shiite majority population.

Well-founded fears are mounting of foreign hands that could take the generally peaceful sit-ins and demonstrations, occasionally confronted with a heavy-handed response by security and anti-riot police, into the treacherous grounds of armed riots and violent clashes that might get out of control, bringing back scenarios of the civil war that ravaged the country and deepened its political, sectarian and ethnic divide.

“The timing of these battles for bringing down the president and government couldn’t have come at a worse timing,” Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said in a heated televised speech Saturday. ” Some people are asking us to take to the streets, now isn’t the time for that and we hope the time for such a move never comes. The possibility is there, but if we take to the streets, we shall never leave before All of our demands are fulfilled; we shall reverse all present political equilibrium,” Nasrallah added.

Lebanese political figures under collective fire

Under fire too, has been the 30-year long Speaker of Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, considered by many a moderate ‘safety valve’ in a potentially volatile country that straddles the geopolitical fault lines of the Middle East.  Lebanese president Michel Aoun and his brother in law, Foreign Minister and president of Free Patriotic Movement Gibran Bassil have too being targeted by demonstrators asking for their removal. This time round, those who took to the streets are making no exceptions and want every single one of the traditional political faces in the country out of office.

Although the current unrest was triggered by economic hardships and poor living standards rather than sectarian violence or regional conflict, no one can guarantee that such reasons couldn’t develop into more serious trouble that undermines national as well as regional security and stability. Previous political vacuums, some lasting for just less than a year, such as the last one prior to the establishment of Hariri’s current cabinet, have paralyzed Lebanon.

Therefore, should the Prime Minister fail to fulfill the demands of demonstrators this time round, Lebanon could once again enter a labyrinth of unpredictable political mayhem that by far exceed the parameters the current “WhatsApp Revolution”. Demonstrators and the majority of Lebanon’s population blame decades of cronyism, corruption and profiteering among the political class for the nation’s economic plight.

Super rich warlords versus super impoverished people

It is believed that a dozen or so Lebanese individuals, mainly previous warlords of the civil war (1975-1990) including some indicted war criminals, are financially worth more than the country’s GDP all together. Lebanon, one of the world’s worst indebted countries, has traditionally relied on income from tourism and foreign inflows of assistance mainly from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and to a lesser extent from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

With such promises of assistance by Gulf Arab benefactors – albeit not free of political charge- failing to arrive, a sharp decline in tourism returns, accumulating debt burdens and limited resources, Lebanon seemed steadily heading towards an economic disaster. The government was left with little choice but to cut spending, raise taxes and fight corruption to unlock nearly $11 billion in international aid pledges made at a Paris donor conference in 2018. Apart from the WhatsApp levy, Hariri’s government has also discussed gradually increasing value-added tax, currently at 11%, and levies on gasoline as part of a planned austerity budget.

Any sudden collapse of Lebanon’s government and the ensuing power vacuum represent a chilling nightmare for the country and much of the region. Such a development, so far opposed by almost every major political force in Lebanon, is bound to have ramifications on regional security and stability.  Such impacts are expected to affect the conflict in neighboring Syria, the anti-Israeli Lebanese resistance movement as well as the major struggle for Gulf and regional supremacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Ramifications that are much further reaching than Lebanon’s mere geographical size. With the announcement of Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Jeajea an hour ago, that he had instructed his party’s ministers to resign from the Cabinet, the power vacuum in Lebanon looms much nearer now. It remains to be seen if any other political parties in Lebanon will follow Lebanese LFP’s treacherous move.

L'articolo Political Vacuum Looms As Protests Sweep Lebanon proviene da InsideOver.