One of the most heated elections in Europe so far has ended in Poland, with the country’s National Electoral Commission declaring the incumbent President, Andrzej Duda, as the winner having achieved a vote share of 51.2 percent. It is Poland’s tightest presidential race since the end of communism in 1989.

The turnout for the election was 68.2 percent.

Trzaskowski Failed to Broaden His Appeal

The Civic Coalition’s (KO) candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, failed to muster all the support from the other candidates such as Szymon Hołownia, who came third in the first round of the presidential election thanks to his campaign for ‘modern solidarity.’ This made it more difficult for Trzaskowski to topple his conservative opponent.

Trzaskowski also failed to take advantage of the votes right-wing nationalist Krzysztof Bosak won in the first round of the poll. Even though the KO’s candidate and Bosak share similar economic views, there is no doubt that many of the latter’s supporters ultimately lent their vote to Duda.

Now that Duda’s second term is secure, the Polish President has to ensure that he can heal the divisions that this election has caused. But now that he has secured a mandate for his policies and because of the Law and Justice’s (PiS) majority in Poland’s Parliament, it is unlikely that Duda will build bridges with those who voted for the KO in the second round of the presidential election.

What Duda’s Second Term Means for Poland

This will result in a lack of progress for those hoping to secure more LGBT equality in Poland. Throughout the election, Duda described LGBT rights as an ‘ideology’ more destructive than communism. Furthermore, the country has been called the worst nation in the EU for LGBT rights.

Duda will also proceed with his controversial judicial reforms that caused him to clash with the EU. The Polish President’s reform program involved a supreme court chamber to conduct disciplinary actions against judges. PiS believes that the country’s flawed transition to democracy in 1989 caused the judiciary to be expropriated by a post-communist elite. Meanwhile, those on the left condemn the reforms as an attack on the rule of law.

The Polish President will also position himself closer to the Trump administration (assuming the US President wins a second election) and drift apart from the rest of the EU. This will exacerbate the EU’s divisions as Duda will continue to align himself with anti-EU leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban.

PiS Must Look to the Future

It is clear that the incumbent did not appeal to more liberal voters to secure his election victory, but under Poland’s constitution, a first-term president can only be re-elected once. Looking to the future, this means that although Duda will not contest the 2025 Polish presidential election, PiS, the party he is associated with, must appoint a candidate who can appeal to Poland’s more liberal voters if they want to prevent the next election from being so closely contested.

Duda’s voters tended to be concentrated in smaller towns, villages and older populations, while larger cities and women would vote for Trzaskowski. This election revealed how geographically and demographically divided Poland is. As the country’s more liberal voters expand in size, PiS would do well to drop its opposition to issues such as LGBT rights if it hopes to win the 2025 election with a broader coalition of voters. However, it is unlikely that this will happen by the time of the 2023 parliamentary election with Duda at the helm.

This election proved that PiS cannot continue to appeal to a narrow electoral base anymore and it exposed Poland’s polarized political divisions. Those voters Duda failed to appeal to will decide PiS’s fate over the next five years, which is why he cannot afford to take the electorate for granted anymore.

L'articolo The Consequences of Duda’s Victory in Poland proviene da InsideOver.

Last weekend, as Poles set out to elect their next president, Europe’s ideological divisions were thrown into sharp relief. In one corner, the incumbent Andrzej Duda — a man indicative of Eastern Europe’s growing conservatism — standing on a platform of nationalistic populism. In the other, Rafal Trzaskowski, a Europhile liberal and defender of minority rights.

Who Won Poland’s Election, Duda or Trzaskowski?

With the first-round votes counted, neither one had reached the requisite 50% (Duda took just under 44% of the vote, while Trzaskowski recorded just over 30%), triggering a runoff ballot to be held on July 12.

The decision ahead of Poles reflects a far wider crisis of unity afflicting Europe: the rise of nationalist governments who have generated controversy over their approach to press freedom and the rule of law in the East, versus the enduring liberal traditions of the West.

Though more moderate than, say, Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic or Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Duda has much in common with these right-wing leaders.

Taking a Look at PiS

Poland’s ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) — with which he is aligned — is wedded to a program of state transformation, including new laws that limit media freedoms and punish judges who are considered to have inaccurately maligned the government or ruled by activist sympathies. As president, Duda has waved through these measures, chipping away at Poland’s democratic credentials.

Yet, the 48-year-old still clearly enjoys significant support, even though he failed to meet the 50% threshold for a first-round triumph.

Duda’s Popularity is in Decline

Duda’s popularity is in decline, however. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, he looked set for a stonking victory. But the government’s lackluster performance on the pandemic and recent allegations of corruption have seen his support base ebb away.

The emergence of Trzaskowski — Warsaw’s cosmopolitan mayor — as a viable candidate has also stung the incumbent. Perturbed at the country’s trajectory under PiS’s brand of nationalistic conservatism, many Poles have turned to Trzaskowski in the hope that he will be a check and balance against the PiS’s right-wing policies. As president, the Warsaw man would have an effective veto on government legislation.

Gay Rights Becomes a Focal Point

Startled by Trzaskowski’s striking rise in the polls, Duda’s campaign shifted gears in the weeks running up to the first-round vote, forcing the conversation onto social issues. The rights of LGBT people has been a particularly fierce battleground.

Seeking support from Poland’s rural, Catholic voter base which remains staunchly against same-sex marriage — Duda has played the family values card, promising to protect the nation against the proliferation of “LGBT ideology.”

A strong supporter of gay rights, Trzaskowski has offered Poles a very different vision with regard to equality. Elements of the media — which various mainstream and left-leaning analysts say is largely under the thumb of the administration — have sought to turn this against the moderate candidate. Sieci, a pro-PiS weekly magazine, recently published a front-cover depicting a hooded Trzaskowski wearing a rainbow armband, with the caption: “the extremist candidate”.

What Happens Next?

This attempted character assassination appears not to have worked, however. By taking 30% of the vote, Trzaskowski has secured himself a strong position for the second-round runoff. Indeed, if electoral polling is to be trusted, he — not Duda — is the odds-on favorite to win the deciding ballot next month.

That would send a strong signal that Eastern Europe still holds dear the core democratic values upon which the continent is built.

L'articolo Poland’s Presidential Race Reflects Europe’s East-West Ideological Divide proviene da InsideOver.

Poland’s presidential election this year proved to be the most heated contest Poles have experienced in recent years. Not only has the nation been crippled by the effects of the coronavirus, but the election was also held against the backdrop of widespread flooding. It was also originally scheduled for May 10, but it had to be postponed due to COVID-19.

The final historic turnout stood at 64.51 percent, which shows that there is a growing interest in the country’s democratic process.

PiS Stormed Ahead in the First Round

Out of the eleven candidates who registered to stand in the general election, only two received a clear mandate to participate in a second vote scheduled for July 12th. President Andrzej Duda, the incumbent associated with the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), received 43.5 percent of the vote. He will face Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw. The latter received 30.46 percent of the vote during the first election and he is the candidate for the main opposition party, which call themselves the Civic Coalition (KO).

During the first vote, Duda attempted to rally his voters behind PiS’s social policies, including their stance on LGBT issues, with the incumbent President describing LGBT rights as an “ideology” more destructive than communism and abortion. He also highlighted his high-standing with President Trump.

The US President even endorsed Duda when the latter went to Washington to visit one of his closest allies. “He’s doing a terrific job,” Trump commented.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski concentrated more on COVID-19’s consequences, women’s rights and maintaining a close relationship with the EU.

Duda Had the State Media on His Side

Duda’s first and only victory so far has demonstrated the incumbent President’s ability to manipulate the state media into supporting him. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) criticized the conduct of Duda’s campaign. Its statement read that state broadcaster TVP served “as a campaign tool” for the President, and some of its reporting contained “xenophobic and anti-Semitic undertones.” By referring to Trzaskowski as ‘a threat to Polish values and interests’, it failed in its duty to be impartial.

However, Gazeta Wyborcza reports that TVP suffered a stunning defeat as it failed to prevent Trzaskowski from soaring to second place. According to BBC News, even conservative daily Rzeczpospolita admitted that PiS support has been mobilized to the limit, which means Duda may have to build bridges with KO at some stage.

Holding the presidential election in June worked to KO’s advantage. If the vote had been held in May, the incumbent President would have stood a better chance of winning in the first round as he was riding high in the opinion polls then. If there is one lesson that Duda needs to learn from this election, then it is that he needs to broaden his base of support to win in the future.

Duda Must Broaden His Support to Win

The New Statesman’s Annabelle Chapman argues that the independent candidate Szymon Hołownia, who came a clear third during the first election, could provide Trzaskowski with the largest reserve of additional votes due to his campaign for “modern solidarity.” Trzaskowski could even eat into the support of right-wing nationalist Krzysztof Bosak, who came fourth, as he shares economic views which are similar to Bosak’s. This is despite the fact that many of the latter’s supporters may vote for Duda.

This could result in an extremely close result that will have major implications for Poland. Daniel Gleichgewicht of the New Eastern Europe highlights that a victory for the opposition could lead to a potential paralysis of the state as PiS hold the largest number of seats in Poland’s parliament. The President has the power to veto legislation, and a KO victory could thwart PiS’s parliamentary agenda.

If Duda wants to prevent such an outcome, he needs to broaden his image to win a vaster array of voters, and fast.

L'articolo The Lesson Duda Needs to Learn proviene da InsideOver.