Soprannominato “il modello“, conosciuto per una fama di duro ma anche di carismatico leader dei servizi segreti, oggi Yossi Cohen probabilmente rappresenta la vera incognita della politica israeliana. A capo del Mossad fino al 2021, il suo nome fa parte di quella galassia della destra israeliana che potrebbe andare a sostituire Benjamin Netanyahu. La sua figura, secondo diversi analisti israeliani, presenta tutte le carte in regola: ben conosciuto nelle cancellerie internazionali e popolare nell’elettorato, su Cohen potrebbero accendersi definitivamente i riflettori alla vigilia delle prossime elezioni.

La “sfida interna” con Naftali Bennett

A giugno sulla stampa israeliana sono apparse le prime indiscrezioni circa una vera e propria discesa in campo di Cohen. In particolare, così come sottolineato dal The Times of Israel, l’ex capo del Mossad in quel momento sarebbe stato tentato dalla volontà di fondare un proprio partito. Incoraggiato dai sondaggi che vedrebbero una propria lista superare la soglia di sbarramento, Cohen avrebbe anche iniziato a reclutare potenziali alleati per formare una propria squadra in vista della campagna elettorale.

C’è però uno scoglio non indifferente di cui l’ex capo del Mossad deve tenere conto. Si tratta dell’ex premier Naftali Bennett, il quale ha battuto sul tempo Cohen e ha già registrato una propria lista per concorrere alle future elezioni. Anche Bennett è un leader di destra con apprezzamenti trasversali, in grado di mettersi alla testa di un fronte unitario per destituire Netanyahu. In poche parole, nella corsa tutta interna alla destra per porsi come antagonista dell’attuale premier, Bannett ha già piazzato le sue mosse sulla scacchiera. Una lista di Cohen dunque, rischierebbe di apparire come un doppione.

I rapporti con Netanyahu

Cohen però potrebbe anche non necessariamente diventare un antagonista di Netanyahu. La storia personale e politica dell’ex spia lo dimostra: tra lui e l’attuale capo del governo c’è spesso stata una forte sintonia, concretizzatasi con la nomina dello stesso Cohen prima come consigliere per la Sicurezza nazionale e, in seguito, come capo del Mossad dal 2016 al 2021. La fine della sua esperienza alla guida del servizio segreto esterno israeliano, è stata in quel momento interpretata come il primo passo verso la nomina a nuovo capo del Likud, il partito di Netanyahu. Sotto questa ottica, Cohen sembrava a essere destinato al ruolo di delfino politico di Bibi.

Le cose sono poi andate diversamente: Netanyahu non ha lasciato lo scettro del principale partito di centrodestra e forse questo ha parzialmente incrinato i rapporti tra loro due. Nelle più recenti interviste, lo stesso Cohen ha più volte sottolineato l’importanza per Israele di voltare pagina e di vedere nuove figure al timone. Un messaggio che sa di auto candidatura, non tanto alla testa di una coalizione anti Netanyahu quanto, al contrario, come figura di traghettatore della destra una volta ultimata l’esperienza dell’attuale governo.

La posizione di Cohen dopo il 7 ottobre 2023

Per il momento, Cohen è formalmente lontano da ogni incarico politico o di sicurezza. Una volta terminata l’esperienza al Mossad, per lui si sono aperte le porte di responsabile israeliano di SoftBank. All’indomani delle stragi del 7 ottobre 2023, l’ex capo del Mossad è però tornato parzialmente alla ribalta. In particolare, Cohen sembra essersi posizionato a metà strada tra la linea del governo e quella dei familiari degli ostaggi trattenuti a Gaza. Sul finire del 2023, ha infatti sfruttato i suoi contatti nei Paesi arabi per cercare di sbloccare le trattative, pur non avendo avuto incarichi formali da Netanyahu. Allo stesso tempo, ha parlato più volte con chi aveva parenti e amici tra i sotterranei di Gaza, senza però lanciare attacchi al governo.

A prescindere dalla creazione di una propria lista, così come a prescindere dai suoi rapporti politici e personali con Netanyahu, Yossi Cohen appare destinato a rappresentare un importante ago della bilancia nell’immediato futuro della politica israeliana. Anche perché, come detto in precedenza, la sua figura è molto apprezzata all’estero e vista in maniera favorevole per un eventuale dopo Netanyahu.

L'articolo Dentro Israele -Yossi Cohen, l’incognita che viene dal Mossad proviene da InsideOver.

In a devastating blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership, Likud Member of the Knesset (MK) Gideon Sa’ar — long seen as the Prime Minister’s nemesis in the Likud Party — announced he was quitting the party and will form his own right-wing party. Sa’ar’s new party will be called New Hope and he will run under its banner for the premiership in the next election, which looks likely to come soon.

The former leading Likud minister said his party had become a “tool for the personal interests of the person in charge, including matters relating to his criminal trial,” and has fostered a “cult of personality” around Netanyahu.

Sa’ar will also be resigning his Knesset seat because he felt it was right for him to step down as he was elected to parliament for Likud.

Sa’ar: ‘Replacing Netanyahu is the Order of the Hour’

Sa’ar, who failed in a leadership challenge against the current Prime Minister last year, said the current coalition had wasted its parliamentary support, and failed in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Replacing Netanyahu is the order of the hour,” he declared, adding that the dangers of overly protracted leadership create a moral hazard.

There are many reasons why Netanyahu should be worried about Sa’ar’s leadership bid. Israel elects its governments using proportional representation, which means that the number of seats a party receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of votes it wins.

Sa’ar Could Pose a Direct Challenge to Netanyahu

On their own, New Hope might not receive a lot of votes, but Sa’ar’s new party will aim to join forces with other existing political factions before the next election. Derech Eretz MKs Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — who quit the Blue and White list when they joined the Netanyahu-led government in May — may also join New Hope.

Israel looks likely to be heading towards its fourth election in two years. Last Wednesday, the Knesset gave initial approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament amid a budget crisis and call a new vote.

Though the polls currently suggest Likud would be the largest party after a fourth election, Sa’ar could split the vote for Netanyahu. The Prime Minister is fighting back against Naftali Bennett’s Yamina, which is the official opposition party. Bennett has made significant gains in recent polls and he also poses a challenge to Netanyahu.

Has Netanyahu’s Luck Run Out?

Despite this, Israelis have little faith in either Netanyahu or his Blue and White counterpart Benny Gantz. The Israel Voice Index survey shows that 62 percent of Israelis view the Prime Minister as having very low or moderately low credibility, while 60 percent say the same for the Defense Minister. These low levels of support for both figures will affect how both of their parties perform during a fourth election, especially when Bennett’s credibility is rising in some polls.

Many political analysts told The Times of Israel that the current Likud-Blue and White coalition might incline more toward a compromise in the light of the electoral threat posed by Sa’ar’s party. If both parties do this, it is unclear what impact this will have on the state budget, which is due to be rejected on December 23. Once it is rejected, an election would automatically be called for March 23. Either way, both Gantz and Netanyahu realize that Sa’ar poses a threat to their coalition.

Netanyahu has been fortunate enough to win the last three elections over the last two years. Until now, he has also been the favorite to win a fourth election. The Prime Minister has survived many different scenarios over the last two years and with Sa’ar now leading his own party, maybe Netanyahu’s luck is about to run out, but that may not be a bad thing given how much his credibility has been damaged recently.

L'articolo What Impact Will Israel’s New Right-Wing Party Have on Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

On Sunday, the Hamas associated terrorist group Islamic Jihad launched several missiles against Israeli targets. Tel Aviv responded in kind and conducted airstrikes against the group in the Gaza Strip and also in Syria on Sunday evening.

What About Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan?

At the end of January, President Trump unveiled his Middle East peace plan. It was a vision that was supposed to cease the violence and implement prosperity in the crisis-ridden region. Not even one month later, the ambitious and noble idea has not only been put in jeopardy but appears even more inconceivable than during its announcement.

The violence has returned and, with its immense potential for severe escalations. On Sunday, Islamic Jihad launched 20 missiles at Israel from the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by Hamas. Ten of these missiles were reportedly intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. The remaining ten hit uninhabited areas. The Israeli army has not published any information about possible fatalities nor injuries. Immediately after the attack, the Al-Quds Brigades, the military arm of Islamic Jihad, claimed responsibility for conducting the strike.

Israel’s response came swiftly and direct. The Israeli army launched attacks against dozens of Islamic Jihad positions in the Gaza Strip. One of the targets was the individuals who had conducted the missile attacks against Israel. However, Israel’s army also hit targets in Syria, where Islamic Jihad also operates from the region’s hub, south of the capital of Damascus.

The Syrian state news agency Sana reported that “most of the enemy’s missiles” had been shot down before they reached their targets. Sana did not provide information regarding casualties or injuries.

IDF Fatally Shoots Palestinian on Gaza Border

The continuous tensions between Israel and militant Palestinians escalated again on Sunday after a fatal incident occurred on the Gaza border. Israeli soldiers shot and killed a Palestinian who sought to plant a bomb. Afterward, the Israeli armed forces recovered the body of the Palestinian by using a bulldozer. According to Islamic Jihad, the individual in question was a member of the organization’s militant group.

Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett spoke of a new policy whereby Israel does not return bodies from extremists to put pressure on Hamas ruling Gaza to return the corpses of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 Gaza war. Previously, Bennett had denied allegations that using a bulldozer to move the bodies of Palestinians was inhumane and instead said it was Hamas who was inhumane, as they have not returned the Israeli bodies for six years.

Netanyahu: ‘I Am Talking About a War … We Have Prepared Something They Cannot Even Imagine’

The situation deteriorated further on Monday. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed Hamas it needed to intervene in the conflict and stop Islamic Jihad’s actions. If it did not, Israel would hold Hamas responsible directly and react. “I am talking about a war,” Netanyahu told the Israeli Army Radio. “War will always be the last resort, but we have prepared something they cannot even imagine,” Netanyahu continued.

For a brief period, Netanyahu’s threat appeared to work, as soon after Islamic Jihad unilaterally announced a ceasefire. Though the group’s official explanation was that the retaliation for the killing of their member had been concluded, Netanyahu’s statements notwithstanding.

However, the missile attacks on Israel continued on Monday evening. Meanwhile, a spokesman for Islamic Jihad stated Israel was continuing to attack the organization’s bases in the Gaza Strip and warned that every further attack would be counter-attacked.

The conflict will further develop over the next days. However, Netanyahu cannot afford to show any weakness as it would put his reelection in even more jeopardy ⁠— likely to the detriment of Islamic Jihad and, indeed, Hamas.

L'articolo Tensions are Escalating in the Middle-East proviene da InsideOver.