British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Europe adviser David Frost and the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier met face-to-face for the first time since the coronavirus crisis started on Monday to thrash out a post-Brexit trade deal. The pandemic forced UK and EU negotiators to hold virtual talks.

The meeting comes just a day after it was announced that Mr. Frost would replace Sir Mark Sedwill as national security adviser.

Johnson remains optimistic that a UK-EU free trade deal can be agreed by the end of July, but if the agreement has any hope of being ratified before the end of the year, then all negotiations must be completed by the end of October.

The UK ‘Will Have to Live with the Consequences of Brexit’

There are many reasons to believe that a deal may not happen. On Saturday, the Prime Minister warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel that he is prepared to walk away from EU trade talks after Merkel suggested that the UK will ‘have to live with the consequences of Brexit.’

But Merkel’s upcoming presidency of the EU could be an opportunity for both sides to make some progress towards a trade deal. With the bloc’s most powerful leader occupying its presidency, the Chancellor is likely to adopt a pragmatic stance during the final months of Britain’s transition period.

She told her EU counterparts recently that the autumn deadline to conclude an agreement is fast approaching, which shows that she is keen to ensure that the UK does not quit the bloc without a deal.

Brexit is a ‘Wake Up Call’ for the Rest of the EU

At the start of the year, she also warned that Brexit is a ‘wake up call’ for the rest of the EU as Merkel fears that Britain could become the EU’s main economic competitor on the continent. However, a free trade deal between the UK and the bloc is the lesser of two evils for her, as a no-deal Brexit could devastate the EU’s economy, particularly Germany’s. 800,000 German cars are exported to Britain every year, which equals 14 percent of all vehicles it makes domestically.

Earlier in June, Barnier insisted that he is not asking the UK to follow EU rules after it has completely left the bloc, and that his position was ‘misunderstood.’ Despite this, he did accuse the British Government of attempting to ‘cherry-pick’ staying in parts of the EU’s single market that it has benefited from the most. Either way, it would be wise for Frost’s team to take advantage of the ‘clever compromises’ Barnier has promised, but only if they benefit the UK.

Is a Compromise on Fishing Finally Emerging?

Fishing was once the biggest stumbling block that delayed both Britain and the EU from making progress in the Brexit negotiations, but it appears as if Brussels is doubling down on its fishing stance. Leading Brussels insiders told The Daily Express that Barnier will back down on the EU’s red line on fishing at the last moment. This would represent a substantial blow for French President Emmanuel Macron, who wants both parties to agree to a post-Brexit fishing arrangement that mirrors the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).

RTE London Correspondent Seán Whelan also told the newspaper that now is not the time for Brussels to shift its position on fishing. This is because they are focused on debating European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s post-coronavirus stimulus before they concentrate on Brexit again. This means that the EU may compromise on fishing in September or October before the deadline for an agreement ends. But such an outcome may face hostility in the European Parliament, with French MEP François-Xavier Bellamy stressing that it is vital to France’s fishing industry for French fishermen to continue to access British waters.

Therefore, the tide seems to be turning in Britain’s favor for both sides to reach a post-Brexit trade pact, but such an outcome can only be achieved if the UK and the EU continue to show flexibility during the final months of the transition period.

L'articolo Why is a Brexit Deal Becoming More Likely? proviene da InsideOver.

The coronavirus has shifted European leaders’ attention away from the ongoing Brexit process, but the UK’s withdrawal from the EU continues thanks to negotiations currently taking place to draft a final trade deal.

However, both the UK and the EU have failed to make any progress during the Brexit negotiations so far. The key issue that both sides cannot agree on is fishing. The Guardian reports that the UK’s chief negotiator David Frost believes that his EU counterpart Michel Barnier recognizes the need to budge on this issue. Nonetheless, France, Spain and the Netherlands have imposed a tough line on this matter. They insist that these nations must continue to have access to British waters post-Brexit.

The Deadline to Conclude a Brexit Deal is Approaching

The deadline for a deal is fast approaching. The British Government has always insisted that if they cannot negotiate a successful trade deal with their EU neighbors, then they will quit the bloc with no deal.

Over the last few years, the EU has been ravaged by a whole host of issues: Brexit, Trump’s trade war, the automotive industry’s decline in the face of the bloc’s own CO2 emissions, and now the coronavirus. The latter has been particularly devastating for Europe’s economy as most of the bloc has gone into lockdown, with EU leaders struggling to agree upon a rescue package to mitigate the economic effects being caused by COVID-19. That is why the EU is the most vulnerable party in the midst of its trade talks with Britain and they cannot afford a no-deal Brexit.

According to the IMF, Ireland would suffer an output loss of four percent in the event of a no-deal Brexit. German car imports could be levied by a 10 percent tax under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, and consultants Oliver Wyman have estimated that France would be the third most affected country by a hard Brexit costing French companies €4 billion a year.

Fishing is the Key to Ending this Deadlock

That is why Whitehall is drafting a legal text, or draft treaty, that will lay bare the stark differences between the two sides on key areas, including the maintenance of the British car industry and its supply chains.

To access EU markets, it would have to be shown that at least 50 percent of a British car’s components were British-manufactured.

Barnier’s team has rejected Britain’s suggestion to reduce the administrative burden of sanitary and physiosanitary checks at borders to protect plant, human and animal life. The legal text is expected to explain how an equivalence between British and EU rules can work.

A Deal is on the Horizon

Therefore, this draft treaty has the potential to avoid a hard Brexit, but it cannot work until both parties can compromise on the key issue of fishing. It would be unacceptable for the British to continue to participate in the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, which sets quotas to conserve fish stocks. Quota hopping within the EU enables big commercial fisheries from nations like Spain and Denmark to grab British stock to meet their own targets.

Equally, the British fishing industry sells fish to other EU countries. In 2014-15 France, Spain and Ireland bought over 140,000 tons of British fish. That is why both the UK and the EU should clarify how British fish can be sold in the latter’s single market post-Brexit.

The Daily Mail suggests that European diplomats are beginning to get “realistic” about their position on fishing. This is probably what is happening behind closed doors.

Barnier refused to budge on the Withdrawal Agreement up until the end of last year. This proves that EU politicians are notorious for agreeing upon a deal at the last minute. But the situation is worse this time as the EU faces even more external threats than it did last year.

A deal is on the horizon and the draft treaty can make it happen, but it is time for the EU to shift its position on fishing.

L'articolo Will a Draft Treaty Prevent a No-Deal Brexit? proviene da InsideOver.

The US Department of Defense has cast doubt over allegations that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) came from a Wuhan laboratory, contradicting claims from US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that COVID-19 is human-engineered.

‘At This Point, It’s Inconclusive’

“There’s a lot of rumor and speculation. It should be no surprise to you that we’ve taken a keen interest in that, and we’ve had a lot of intelligence take a hard look at that. And I would just say, at this point, it’s inconclusive. Although the weight of evidence seems to indicate ‘natural.’ But we don’t know for certain,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said recently to journalists at the Pentagon.

The alleged claim about the virus speculating that it was made in a Wuhan lab was one of the most popular COVID-19 conspiracy theories that was widely shared on social media. A former Israel military intelligence even once linked the virus to the Wuhan virology lab. Even though he admitted that he had no evidence backing his claim, many people clipped out parts of his statement and shared such misleading information on social media.

The Origin of COVID-19

Novel coronavirus stemmed in a wet market in Wuhan just a few days before the New Year of 2020. The virus causes a disease with symptoms similar to flu and other respiratory illnesses such as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

As of April 19, the U.S has recorded the highest death toll over COVID-19 with 39,015, surpassing that of Spain and Italy. The number of infections has reached more than 2,300,000 globally so far.

France Rebuts the White House’s Wuhan Lab Claim

France echoed the Pentagon claim by debunking the White House’s suspicion that the virus had been leaked from a Wuhan virology facility.

“We would like to make it clear that there is to this day no factual evidence corroborating the information recently circulating in the United States press that establishes a link between the origins of COVID-19 and the work of the P4 laboratory of Wuhan, China,” said a government official at the office of French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday.

France and China agreed to set up a research lab on infectious diseases in Wuhan in 2004. France’s then-Foreign Minister Michel Barnier signed the agreement. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has repeatedly denied the U.S accusation that novel coronavirus might have been produced in one of the institute’s labs.

The World Health Organization (WHO) also slammed the White House’s remarks, raising suspicions and criticism that the Geneva-based organization is biased to China.

French Scientists Divided Over Origin of the Virus

Professor Luc Montagnier, one of the co-discoverers of HIV, believed that the COVID-19 (or previously known as SARS-CoV-2) was a lab accident when the Wuhan lab was trying to produce a vaccine against the AIDS culprit.

The Nobel Prize winner in medicine argued that various elements of COVID-19 have the same characteristics similar to those in the HIV.

“The Wuhan city laboratory has specialized in these coronaviruses since the early 2000s. They have expertise in this area,” the professor told CNews channel.

However, virologist Étienne Simon-Lorière at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, snubbed Montaigner’s claims, arguing that it is unlikely to find the same elements in different types of viruses.

“That does not make sense. These are very small elements that we find in other viruses of the same family, other coronaviruses in nature,” the virologist told AFP as Asiatimes quoted.

Were the U.S and Israel Behind the Creation of COVID-19?

In early March, former agent of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Phillip Giraldi raised suspicion that the U.S had conspired with its close ally Israel to produce the virus, claiming that the COVID-19 was not the result of natural process.

“Several reports suggest that there are components of the virus that are related to HIV that could not have occurred naturally. If it is correct that the virus had either been developed or even produced to be weaponized it would further suggest that its escape from the Wuhan Institute of Virology Lab and into the animal and human population could have been accidental. Technicians who work in such environments are aware that “leaks” from laboratories occur frequently,” Giraldi wrote in an article published by the Strategic Culture Foundation.

Giraldi suspected that the Trump administration’s accusation that China might have produced COVID-19 was based on fears that China’s dominance would threaten the US economy and national security. Also in support of his position, Giraldi noted how between 2005 to 2009, the US and Israel secretly created a computer virus called Stuxnet aimed at destroying Iran’s computer system used for nuclear research.

Did the US Know About the Virus in Advance?

Reports in the Times of Israel claimed that the U.S had notified Israel about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China in November, a month before the virus infected China. According to the report, US intelligence agencies initially passed the information to the White House, which snubbed the report. Then, the agencies warned Washington’s allies, such as NATO and Israel.

The report did not specify more details about when the US intelligence agencies had become aware of the virus before warning Israel in November.

Closure of Fort Detrick

One of the most-widely shared conspiracy theories is the link between the closure of the Fort Detrick military laboratory in Maryland in August, 2019 and the outbreak of COVID-19 months later, given that the Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases studies lethal viruses such as Ebola at this location.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated the research did not have an adequate system to decontaminate waste from the high-level security center, contradicting the Fort Detrick spokesperson’s claim that there had been no leak related to hazardous materials and there had been no threat to people’s health.

Americans have urged authorities to clarify the reasons for Fort Detrick’s shutdown, triggering the conspiracy theory behind the COVID-19. However, there has been no evidence the military lab is linked to the outbreak.

Conspiracy Conclusions

COVID-19-related conspiracy theories always attract readers, thanks to their sensational storylines. However, people should not write and post their assumptions without verifying them first.

Rather than busily debating where the virus was produced, people should focus more on helping out during this difficult time and maintaining their health.

L'articolo As Covid-19 Spreads, So Do Conspiracy Theories About Its Origin proviene da InsideOver.

For the last three years, the UK has been driven by a polarizing decision called Brexit; all talks were about uncertainty and divisions, about the divisions between remain and leave. At present, that seems to be an era long gone.

Brexit Seemed to be on Track Until Covid-19 Changed Everything

With the last general election, Britons asked the new government to move on and leave the EU. Boris Johnson’s address to the Nation on January 31 promised to be ensuring that.

Nobody could have ever imagined that things would have gone so differently. After the coronavirus has changed everybody’s life and expectations, is Brexit still a priority in the agenda?

Larry Elliott, a longtime Eurosceptic journalist, argues that the pandemic is exposing the EU’s failures: “The message being sent out is that Europe is a project for the good times and that when the going gets tough people can only really rely on their own government and the nation state.”

Is Brexit what Great Britain really needs to talk about with Europe right now or is the pandemic sending Brexit into lockdown?

The Pre-Covid-19 Brexit Stalemate

On February 26, David Frost, the Uk’s chief negotiator, called a press conference with the FPA in order to introduce the 30 page publication setting out the UK’s approach to the negotiations with the EU supposed to begin shortly, from that week on. He than left to Brussels in order to start the first round of the talks with Michel Barnier, his EU counterpart. After that meeting, Barnier announced on Twitter that he had tested positive for the coronavirus, sending Frost into self-isolation as he was also showing symptoms of the disease.

Coronavirus Shelved EU-UK Brexit Negotiations

While talks were put on hold, the pandemic started causing chaos all around the world. The British PM called for lockdown and the civil servants working on Brexit were switched to dealing with the coronavirus, or being sent home. As a consequence, no meaningful work has been done in Whitehall to prepare for the negotiations, which are supposed to conclude by the end of the year.

On April 8, after recovering, Barnier started preparing his work at the European Commission which includes organizing upcoming negotiation rounds with Frost, who has also recovered. Obviously, it would be impossible to continue face-to-face talks which have been suspended because of social distancing measures.

As the coronavirus has struck at the heart of the post-Brexit trade talks, is there any hope that cross-channel negotiations could make any substantial progress while the pandemic continues?

Videoconferencing vs. One-on-One Talks

On April 5 after the Queen’s speech PM Johnson was admitted to St Thomas’ Hospital due to coronavirus after suffering 10 days of symptoms including a high fever.

Prior to that day, Johnson had consistently dismissed calls to seek an extension to the negotiating period Britain entered after officially leaving the bloc on January 31: “no ifs, no but”. After all, he won the election on this pledge.

The thing is that, what looked certain before the outbreak looks doubtful afterwards, as everything has changed and nobody knows how the world would look like when all this is over.

EU Official: Johnson’s Year-End Deal Scenario ‘Fantasy Land’

Boris Johnson’s plan to seal a deal with Brussels by the end of December  “which was already hopelessly optimistic”, has been described as a “fantasy land” by EU officials, the Guardian reports.

The German newspaper, Der Spiegel, published a leaked letter from Michael Clauss, the German ambassador to the EU, where he outlined the scale of the bloc’s inability to work during the outbreak.

While the first round of the talks at the European Commission could have a chance to be held, the second one, at the European Council HQ where all the member state’ positions are coordinated, will be more complicated due to the lack of facilities. The pandemic has cut the capacity of carrying out work which is now 25% of what it would usually be.

With only one videoconference available per day “and worse facilities than the EU commission, it would be impossible for the member states to have the same input through the EU Council. This would make a successful negotiation nearly impossible,” an EU official told the Guardian.

All Nonessential EU Matters On Hold

In the leaked letter from Clauss to Berlin, it was also explained that all nonessential issues, the ones not-related to rebuilding from the pandemic, would be temporarily suspended.

These words resonate more significantly as we consider that Germany will take over the rolling EU presidency semester from Croatia, in July 1 and what the German Ambassador wrote implied that Brexit will not be on the top of the EU’s economics agenda.

He also wrote that videoconferences are not able to replace face-to-face meetings. “No formal quorum, no marginalized conversations, no confidentiality of the negotiations, no interpreting. Difficulties in text work.”

It takes two to negotiate and a UK government spokesman made it clear that the PM remains fully committed to the negotiations and that “discussions with the commission are continuing, with the aim of reaching an agreement by the end of the year with no intention of changing.”

Delay is the Smartest Option

Nick de Bois, former chief of staff to Dominic Raab at the Department for Exiting the European Union in 2018, is among those who believe that delaying the Brexit trade negotiation talks could be the best thing to do now, due to the heightened difficulties from the pandemic.

“Videoconferencing can go so far, but it was the personal chemistry of Johnson that clinched the withdrawal agreement, first by settling the Northern Ireland backstop with the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, and then deploying his considerable charm offensive to win over EU leaders to support the deal,” de Bois said.

In the best case scenario, meaning that a deal is agreed by the latest possible date of October 2020, what happens from that moment on is that all the 27 member states will be called to endorse the trade agreement. But, if this process would have been difficult without the outbreak, things are getting worse now.

“With the inevitable financial fallout from the coronavirus shown by a North-South divide within the Eurozone countries on who should be picking up the bill for the extensive intervention measures undertaken by national governments, ratification of what would be a very important trade deal could well be weaponized by southern member states to secure more generous EU bailouts that are inevitably down the line,” he concluded.

As Boris Johnson has high personal poll ratings at the moment, he could postpone the transition period without betraying his pledge, simply shifting  his investments and attention into coping with the pandemic. Nobody would probably be surprised by the PM changing his mind, because the UK is used to that and will probably approve this decision. Ubi maior.

Shifting Public Opinion

From the onset of the outbreak, it looks as if the British people are slowly starting to get prepared to see who was supposed to be the “Brexit PM” turning into the “Pandemic PM” and swallow the idea that the divorce from the EU can and must wait.

“Some argue that the UK government was elected on a promise to Get Brexit Done, and allowing a delay would be a betrayal of the voters,” the Times reads while calling for an online surrey to its readers and adding that: “Others say the coronavirus crisis is more important, and its impact would prevent a satisfactory deal being struck in any case.”

Fully 75% of the people answering this question said that Brexit can wait. A Focaldata poll, commissioned by the campaign groups Best for Britain and Hope Not Hate, found that 64% of voters want Johnson to “request an extension to the transition period in order to focus properly on the coronavirus.”

UK Conservatives Are Also Changing Their Tune

Tom Harwood, journalist in the FM Conservatives says that Rishi Sunak reiterating the Government’s commitment to concluding UK-EU FTA by December is not believed to by possibile by several Tory MPs. “Let’s be clear we’re in the midst of a global epidemic, many Brexiteers would not see a short extension to the transition period as the end of the world,” he concluded. The key issue, picked up on by Peter Foster, Financial Times, is that “pushing ahead on the existing timetable would not just be a diversion, but a self-inflicted one”.

Adding, that more time would probably help in achieving a better post-Brexit trading relationship, given the circumstances and people would accept and forgive if the government will not be able to stick to the original timetable choosing to prioriti\e the emergency, now.

The National Audit Office said that between 2016-17 and 2019-20, the Treasury made available £6.3bn of additional founding to cover the costs of the UK leaving the EU with or without a deal. Government departments already spent more than £4bn on preparations for leaving, the public spending watchdog said.

Are we sure the Britons will accept more funds to be spent tackling this issue while the sountry, as all the rest of the world, struggles to cope with the coronavirus pandemic?

Brexit vs. Pandemic

“Freedom of movement brought the man who is currently saving the PM’s life,” Naomi Smith of Best for Britain, said.

One in every 20 NHS employees is from the EU making up 20% of the UK’s GPs. Since the 2016 referendum result, the number of European Economic Area (EEA) nurses to have left the NHS has tripled.

On March 31, due to the emergency, doctors, nurses and paramedics from abroad had their visas extended so they could “focus on fighting coronavirus,” Pritti Patel, Home Secretary, said. The extension applied to around 2,800 migrant health professionals working in the NHS with UK work visas due to expire before October 1. “They will be renewed automatically for a year free of charge so they can remain working in the country,” the Home Office said.

But this is not enough. The NHS was buckling under the weight of rising demand, facing a severe staffing shortage even before the pandemic outbreak. “More than 40,000 nursing roles are currently unfilled amid a sector-wide crisis,” the Telegraph read, last January.

Mark Dayan, policy analyst at health think tank the Nuffield Trust, said that continued migration into the UK is critical. “The NHS has a long-term tendency to rely on non-UK migration,” he explained adding that “The NHS is also more dependent on migrants than other sections of the economy are on average.”

What happens is that, while staff from the EU dry up, the UK — still relying on migrants — is now looking back again to the Philippines and India. In the last two years, the number of Filipino recruits has grown by more than 20 per cent, while those from Spain, Portugal and Romania quit. But this is still not enough to cope with the national emergency all the countries, India and Philippines included, are facing now.

The thing is that, the workers’ shortage due to Brexit is now more prominent than ever; plus, the coronavirus crisis has made certain roles more essential than ever before, showing that they are necessary to society and the economy at large.

The ONS data shows that on average 50% of jobs in the food chain (excluding hospitality) are held by foreign, mostly EEA (40%), workers. Same goes for logistics and wholesale where the non-UK workforce is 39% or cleaning where it is at 35% on average. 

A “Pick for Britain” campaign has been launched by the government and the farming industry to recruit up to 7,000 British workers to harvest fruit and vegetables as travel restrictions means that only 10% of Eastern European workforce is now available.

Europe has never looked so far away, especially when, at the beginning of the outbreak, the UK originally rejected the EU scheme to work together to order the life-saving equipment. The government claimed that they had missed the email communications to join and this is the reason why they didn’t joined. Michael Gove, Minister for the Cabinet Office, explained that, as an “independent nation”, it was able to create the ventilators it needs without the support of other countries. More than 480 ventilators have arrived from overseas in the last month, either donated or bought from countries including US, Germany, China, Sweden, Turkey and Taiwan.

Should Brexit be Put on Hold?

Unsurprisingly, a lot of people in the UK still think that Brexit has to be done quickly and talks should not stop.

Nigel Farage has warned that the EU will force Britain to pay billions towards Brussels’ coronavirus bailout fund if the UK extends its Brexit transition period. He told online viewers that the UK still has £7billion left in the European Investment Bank (EIB), which, he warned, could be used to prop up the collapsing European Union.

Whilst the Prime Minister has remained resolute in its bid to complete post-Brexit talks by December 31, Brussels sources have ruled out renegotiating the terms of the transition period to allow for a “Flextension” for just an extra few weeks.

Such an arrangement would require a new treaty which is not theoretically impossible, but basically more difficult during these hard times.

Boris Johnson still has a B plan in his pocket: a no-deal Brexit.

The question is: is this the proper bid to think about in these hard times, or, once again, Brexit can be put on hold one more time?

L'articolo Is the Pandemic Sending Brexit into Lockdown? proviene da InsideOver.

The coronavirus crisis has ground global economies to a halt. Businesses have been shut, transport links cancelled, and sports tournaments scrapped. But as it stands, one thing appears impervious to the pandemic’s disruption: post-Brexit trade talks.  

Post-Brexit Trade Talks Continue

The negotiations on Britain’s future with the EU have been eclipsed by Covid-19 in the news agenda, but behind closed doors, they are continuing. Given the pressure facing governments across the continent, that’s truly staggering. 

Indeed, the discussions have been blighted by the illness in a very personal way — lead EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, has tested positive for the disease, while his UK counterpart David Frost is said to currently be in self-isolation with virus symptoms. There had been hope that their teams might continue to meet, but, as huge swathes of Europe went into lock-down last week, face-to-face talks were cancelled. Teleconferencing technology was then suggested, but it proved equally unviable: dozens of officials crammed around webcams would have infringed on social distancing rules. 

Diplomatic Void

So now the opposing sides find themselves in a diplomatic void, determined to continue their negotiations but without any obvious means to do so. At the current stage of the talks, that poses little problem — both UK and EU representatives are busy analyzing the other’s legal documents, which amount to well over 400 pages each.

The next leg of the discussions will be harder to navigate. In a strident move last month, British prime minister Boris Johnson said he was willing to walk away from the negotiating table if insufficient progress had been made by July. 

The testiest areas of discussion — security, foreign policy, fishing, and more — must therefore be thrashed out in a little over twelve weeks. Achieving this will require intense and prolonged diplomatic bouts in which the individual officials’ personal relationships will be crucial. Whether genuine progress can be made without physical proximity in these high stakes talks is doubtful, experts say.

Coronavirus Has Led to Many Departments Being Short-Staffed

Negotiators must also be mindful of the situation back home. Facing off with the worst pandemic in a century, governments across Europe are under unprecedented pressure. In the UK, civil servants working for department vital to Brexit preparations — not least the Treasury — are reportedly being drafted into Covid-19 crisis teams. Acknowledging the enormity of the public health emergency, Johnson admitted last week that Brexit was “not a subject that is being regularly discussed” at the moment.        

With that in mind, it seems logical that London would request an extension to the talks. It’s certainly an option at their disposal: under the Withdrawal Agreement signed last year, negotiations can be prolonged for two years to allow for a breakthrough.  

All Eyes on Johnson

But Johnson has staked his legacy on delivering Brexit: any move that delays Britain’s departure from the EU institutions is feared and loathed at No. 10 Downing Street. 

In Europe, on the other hand, an extension is likely to be met with welcome. The UK’s withdrawal from the bloc has left a €65 billion hole in Brussels’ budget — a gap officials are struggling to fill. 

If talks were to be extended while the world wrestles with Covid-19, Britain would be obligated to continue monetary contributions. This would appall the UK government’s fiercely pro-Brexit leadership, but given the historic threat that all nations are facing pragmatism may have to trump ideology. 

Withdrawal Will Have Major Financial Consequences

The economics of Britain’s EU exit must also be considered. Experts are in near-unanimous agreement: withdrawal will have financial consequences. In more stable times, this might’ve amounted to an insignificant economic blip.

But in the current climate, no country can afford a downturn, however minor. Covid-19 has brought European business to its knees, with analysts warning of historically deep recessions in the coming months. Taking this into account, failing to postpone Brexit — and thus delay the economic stress it will likely cause — would appear foolish. 

But in any negotiation, advantage must be seized wherever it is found. Britain entered the crisis in a stronger financial position than the EU: national debt was 7% lower than the continent’s average, with unemployment rates almost half. If, accordingly, the UK can weather the economic storm of Covid-19 better than Europe, its negotiating power would be boosted.

Still, pandemics are unpredictable beasts and there’s no telling who may come out on top when it all blows over. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the British public appears pro-extension: a recent YouGov poll found 55% of Brits favored postponement, with 24% against.  

Whether Johnson — who himself has recently tested positive for the coronavirus — will listen, only time will tell. 

L'articolo Will Post-Brexit Trade Talks be Delayed Because of Coronavirus? proviene da InsideOver.

The EU General Affairs Council approved of a document that should serve as a reference point in any future trade deal between the UK and the bloc on Tuesday. Meanwhile, on Thursday, UK ministers will present a final agreement to Parliament that states what the British Government’s mandate for Brexit discussions will be.

EU Trade Deal Blueprint

The EU’s 46-page mandate will be the blueprint that the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier will follow in discussions with his British counterpart, and it says the bloc’s standards should apply in the areas of state aid, competition, state-owned enterprises, social and employment standards, and more.

But the problem both sides have is that neither of them can agree on what the final agreement should look like, even though British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that he wants a Canada-style trade pact with the EU.

Barnier has ruled out such an agreement, arguing that Britain is too close in proximity to be permitted to compete with the other 27 member states on such terms.

MEPs such as Nathalie Loiseau, an MEP for French President Emmanuel Macron’s party La République En Marche!, told the BBC that the UK’s relationship to the EU is different to that of Canada’s, adding that this will make achieving a Canada-style trade deal more difficult.

No-Deal Looks Increasingly Likely

The prospect of no-deal is looking increasingly likely. Johnson has repeatedly stressed that his country should not be bound by European standards on social legislation, state aid and the environment in any agreement.

While Barnier is embracing the concept of a new relationship with the UK, he has warned the British Government that abiding by EU rules is a price worth paying for the British to continue to have access to 450 million consumers as part of a comprehensive trade deal.

To abide by EU rules post-Brexit would defeat the purpose of leaving the bloc. During the transition phase, Britain has no say over how those rules are made and that will continue after December. This is a cynical bid by Brussels to prevent the UK from becoming a competitive nation, and it is a shameful attempt to eradicate the sovereignty many British people voted for during the 2016 EU Referendum.

Johnson Must Resist the Temptation to Compromise

After being elected on a huge mandate to deliver Brexit, it would be unacceptable for Johnson to compromise on this issue at the expense of free trade. The Prime Minister’s special adviser David Frost has said that the British Government is ready to trade with Brussels on the same international laws that Australia abides by if necessary.

The EU knows it is in its best interest to offer Britain a zero-tariff trade agreement. Though pacts with Canada and Japan have taken years to negotiate, Brussels must demonstrate some flexibility, otherwise the impact of a no-deal Brexit will hit them hard.

The Legatum Institute estimates that if the EU does not provide the UK with a free trade deal, the EU automotive industry would lose between two to seven billion euros in annual revenues. The beef and dairy industries in Ireland could see an export decline between 34 to 50 percent and 23 to 42 percent respectively.

Of course, Brussels is notorious for offering trade deals at the last minute. They budged on Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement in October and as the Prime Minister’s own deadline approaches, the reality of a no-deal Brexit could cause them to do so again. Even Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar acknowledged a “barebones deal” is possible.

Therefore, it is clear what the EU needs to do to avoid a no-deal scenario. The British Government is well-prepared for such an event and it is Brussels that will lose out more if they play hardball to the very end.

L'articolo Is a No-deal Brexit Becoming Increasingly Likely? proviene da InsideOver.

In its efforts to not only clarify but establish its new trade relations with the EU post-Brexit, the British government’s first choice appears to be a Canadian or Australia style trade agreement.

Boris Johnson Considering Two Main Trade Deal Options With EU

Nonetheless, the UK does not rule out having relatively loose trade relations with the EU in the future after Brexit. Currently, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is examining two options of a trade agreement in particular. The first is a free trade agreement like that between the EU and Canada. The second deal is a less restricted trade agreement such as that which the EU has in place with Australia.

Reports on Sunday night also indicated that Johnson seeks to free the UK from binding EU rules. For this he also accepts border controls, according to unnamed government sources quoted by British media quoted on Sunday night. The prime minister would be ready for a free trade agreement with the EU modeled on Canada, the report said. He also wanted to present his negotiation goals for the upcoming talks on the future relationship with the EU in a speech on Monday.

Johnson’s Speech

Here, he will also speak to CEOs, entrepreneurs, and ambassadors, though the exact content has not been communicated. However, the indication is that sovereignty for the UK remains more critical than trade if substantial restrictions bind the latter. Johnson is even reportedly willing to accept trade barriers such as tariffs in order to maintain a high degree of sovereignty.

Is There Enough Time To Make A Deal Before Hard Brexit Hits?

Besides Johnson, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier—who is mandated to carry out negotiations by the 27 remaining member states—will also present his perspective on Monday. After leaving the EU on January 31, the UK has entered a transition phase during which almost everything will remain as it was prior to Brexit. Until the end of the year, the EU and the UK will seek to agree on conditions for future relationships. However, if the latter cannot be facilitated within the time-frame, a hard Brexit will become a possibility again. Considering that the aforementioned trade deal between the EU and Canada took several years before it was finalized, the transition period raises the question of whether or not it might be too short, given the complexity of the issues on hand.

The Canada-UK Trade Deal (CETA)

The current agreement between Canada and the EU is called the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). In a nutshell, it allows for 98% of all tariffs on goods traded between Canada and the EU to be duty-free. Thus, Canadian importers do not have to pay €590m in taxes on the goods they receive from the EU, and European importers see tariffs reduced to zero on some 9,000 Canadian products. Moreover, part of the agreement is the opening up of contracts on the local, regional, and federal levels to each other’s contractors. The latter aims to protect EU “geographical indications” (e.g., Canada is only allowed to import goods such as prosciutto di Parma ham or camembert cheese from its countries of origin).

The Australia-UK Trade Deal

Similar restrictions would likely not apply under an Australian style system. The EU and Australia have been conducting their trade and economic relations under the 2008 EU-Australian Partnership Framework, which aims to facilitate trade in industrial products between the EU and Australia by reducing technical barriers and improve trade in services and investment and is governed by a rules-based multilateral trading system, the World Trade Organisation (WTO). In November 2015, however, both sides agreed to start working on a possible future Free Trade Agreement (FTA); and in November 2017, this preparatory work ended, paving the way for substantial negotiations between the two parties, which began in May, 2018.

It remains in both side’s interest to form a coherent trade agreement soon. Johnson’s proclivity for sovereignty may indicate that he favors the Australian model. However, the benefits of almost tariff-free trade will need to be considered. Much will depend on how the UK’s economy shapes up over these next months, but much will also depend on how many concessions the EU is willing to make with the UK after having played hardball since 2015.

L'articolo Boris Johnson Seeks Canadian Or Australian Style Trade Agreement With EU proviene da InsideOver.