The political crisis crippling Lebanon shows no sign of ending as the country’s politicians failed to form a new government before the deadline agreed with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Failure to Agree on a New Cabinet

Lebanese President Michel Aoun met the leaders of parliamentary groups at Baabda Palace on Monday and Tuesday, but they failed to agree on a new cabinet that could have been led by Prime Minister-designate Mustapha Adib.

Macron has invested considerable political capital into Lebanon’s political process since the Beirut explosion last month. During his last visit to the nation he received reassurances that politicians would form a government within 15 days of his trip.

Government May be Formed by End of the Week

However, Nadim El Kak, a researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, told The National that the political class are “engaging in sectarian battles,” even though some in the Lebanese media believe that a government could be formed by the end of the week.

The biggest obstacle to forming a new government is that several parties which control the interior, foreign and defense ministries fear that a reshuffle threatens the hold that they have over these institutions.

Parliamentary Speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri insists that a Shi’ite figure be given charge of the finance ministry. Macron failed to persuade him to change his mind.

If Lebanon has any hope of reforming its political system following the Beirut explosion, then the nation’s elites have no choice but to allow for a rotation between parties in Lebanon’s key political institutions. It is not fair that a certain group has an exclusive right to any ministerial portfolio.

Fires Continue to Shatter Lebanon’s Psyche

Aoun’s son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, who leads the President’s party, accused internal and external forces of thwarting the formation of a new government.

As the political elites continue to frustrate attempts to initiate radical reforms in Lebanon, fires continue to shatter the nation’s psyche. A fire broke out at a shopping center being built in Beirut, marking the third blaze in a week in a city still reeling from the devastating explosion in August.

The shopping center was designed by British-Iraqi architect Zaha Hadid.

Although the disaster is still being investigated, the fire was reportedly triggered by a detonation of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate that had been stored unsafely.

A Government Must be Formed Quickly

That is why Lebanon’s politicians must form a government quickly. Jogger Joe Sayegh told Reuters that the latest fires signify that if the country’s new administration is formed by the same politicians then “nothing will change.” This is just one example of how citizens’ confidence in their politicians has been damaged by recent events.

Whoever leads Lebanon’s new government has a daunting task ahead of them. Macron wants the country’s elites to initiate a reformed electoral law and to hold parliamentary elections by September 2021. Given the current state of affairs in Lebanon, this might be easier said than done.

Iran will be monitoring developments in Lebanon carefully as they are one of the main sponsors of Hezbollah, a Shi’ite Islamist party which has influence over the Lebanese Government. The Washington Institute discovered that the Iranian Government provides the terrorist group with $100 million per year. The Iranian Government has already spoken out against Macron’s interventions, and they may attempt to block the French President’s planned reforms.

Time is Running Out for Lebanon’s Political Elites

The Council on Foreign Relations’ Amir Asmar suggests the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were instrumental in defeating ISIS and it is one of the few institutions that Lebanon’s citizens have a positive view of. They can act as a restraining force against Hezbollah and Macron would be wise to engage with them if he is serious about reform.

With Lebanon’s currency losing 80 percent of its value against the dollar and the economy likely to contract by 24 percent this year, it is imperative that a new government tackles the ongoing economic crisis the nation faces. Continuous delays to the forming of a new administration means that the tough decisions which are necessary to spark an economic recovery are not being made.

It is clear that the next stages for Lebanon’s political elites are to form a new cabinet, initiate reform and rebuild the economy. Time will tell if this is too ambitious for them to accomplish or not.

L'articolo What’s Next for Lebanon? proviene da InsideOver.

When French President Emmanuel Macron visited Beirut on Thursday following the devastating explosion there that killed approximately 137 people, he was mobbed through the city. Residents implored him to help them as they denounced their own leaders. He was the first global leader to visit the city since the tragedy.

The Lebanese People Have Lost Faith in Their Political Leaders

The desperate pleas from Lebanese citizens toward the French President show that this is a country that has truly lost faith in its own political elite. Lebanese security forces fired teargas at demonstrators in Beirut as anger over the nation’s leadership grew following the explosion in the city that laid waste to large parts of the capital on Tuesday. Protesters had gathered outside the Lebanese Parliament, where a small fire was lit and stones were thrown at security forces, according to the Guardian. 

The same thing happened last October, which led to Lebanon’s security forces being condemned in a recent report by Human Rights Watch for using excessive force against demonstrators on several occasions.

Aid and Reform Should Be Linked

Last year’s October demonstrations led to the resignation of Saad al-Hariri, who was prime minister of Lebanon at the time. Lebanese President Michael Aoun has recently launched a probe to investigate whether external interference might have caused the explosion, but his actions are likely to fall upon deaf ears as the explosion in Beirut has led to calls for wider political reform, particularly from Macron, who has said that any aid that comes from France must be tied to political change.

Macron has a unique opportunity to persuade the rest of the international community to pressure Lebanon’s political elite into reforming its system. Following the collapse of the Turkish Ottoman Empire in World War One, Lebanon became a French protectorate until 1943. Therefore, the French Government has a vested interest in ensuring that peace and stability is restored to the former French protectorate.

Macron Has Many advantages in Leading the Effort for Change in Lebanon

France is a leading member of NATO and the United Nations and Macron can use his influence over both institutions to persuade other world leaders that Lebanon is likely to become increasingly vulnerable to Iranian influence if they choose not to help. The Washington Institute discovered that the Iranian Government provides Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah with $100 million per year. As Iran is currently forging closer ties to Russia and Turkey in the Middle East, the French President has a chance to urge his counterparts to not let Lebanon become vulnerable to a power vacuum.

Macron is also one of the few Western leaders who has a somewhat decent relationship with US President Donald Trump. The US’s support will be vital in the future if Lebanon has any hope of reforming its political system. Trump should follow Macron’s lead if he is serious about preventing Moscow, Ankara and Tehran from taking advantage of Lebanon’s vulnerability.

As the Council on Foreign Relations’ Amir Asmar suggests, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were instrumental in defeating ISIS and it is one of the few institutions that Lebanon’s citizens have a positive view of. They were able to beat IS because of US funding, which is why it would be in Trump’s best interest to fund the LAF so that they can prevent Hezbollah from strengthening its grip over Lebanon.

Macron Must Avoid Repeating the Mistakes He Made in Libya

Despite this, Macron’s interventions in Middle Eastern politics have had mixed results so far. Although the French President produced a four-point plan that could have persuaded Iran to end its nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of US sanctions, neither the US nor Iran are likely to agree upon a new deal before the US election in November.

The French President’s desire to end the Libyan war is genuine, but his actions have been rather clumsy. The 2018 Paris summit failed to consult a wide range of actors in the Libyan conflict, which is a mistake Macron should not make in Lebanon should he go down this route.

On the whole, Macron is the only world leader best placed to persuade the international community that they need to support political change in Lebanon, and he was right to suggest that aid needs to be tied to reform. He just needs to remember the lessons he should have learnt from his intervention in Libya to ensure that he is successful in helping the former French protectorate transform its government for the better.

L'articolo Can Macron Persuade Allies to Force Political Change on Lebanon? proviene da InsideOver.

Protests in Lebanon, now in their fifth week running, took a much-feared violent turn on Monday with the death of two southern civilians burned alive in their car as they attempted to cross a highway blocked by anti-government protesters. The second fatal incident, after the shooting of a prominent Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) headed by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, some two weeks earlier has raised tension in the small Mediterranean country and caused a nation-wide outrage against road blockers. The new victims, a man and his sister in law who came from the mainly pro-Hezbollah southern areas of Lebanon, were burned alive when their vehicle hit some metal roadblocks and swerved out of control to hit a concrete wall along Al Jiyyeh coastal highway.

With so many axes to grind, violence is inevitable

The surge in violent clashes between supporters of  rival political factions in Lebanon over the past two days, aggravated an acute economic situation and a looming political vacuum after caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, under tremendous pressure from some Lebanese as well as regional and even international power breakers, had announced his intention to forsake the formation of a new government. Hariri resigned his post at the outset of massive popular protest that had started as a peaceful anti-government uprising with legitimate demands five weeks ago, only to turn into more violent inter-factional clashes that bring sad memories of the 15 years of Civil War (1975-1990) that shattered the country. The UN Security Council and some EU nations have called upon all actors in Lebanon to refrain from acts of violence and respect of peaceful protests demanding an overhaul of the country’s political system and sectarian divisions.

From day one, protesters raised the controversial and extremely precarious slogan ‘ALL Means ALL’, targeting the most influential Lebanese figures in the country. While demonstrators, in general, appeared very much united and keen on burying traditional sectarian and political divisions, and succeeded to do so for some time at least, patience soon ran short for some influential power brokers who viewed the uprising as a well-planned, pre-fabricated regional and international effort designed to undermine the rule of President Michael Aoun and his close powerful allies, Amal Movement (headed by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri) and anti-Israeli Hezbollah and its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

While stressing their demand for a total change, Lebanese protesters campaign has particularly focused on the president Aoun’s influential son in law, Foreign Minister and chairman of ruling FPM (Free Patriotic Movement) Gibran Bassil, whom they accuse of running the country on behalf of the president. The ongoing protests broke out immediately after Bassil had announced his intention to visit the Syrian capital Damascus to discuss the return of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees from Lebanon.

Paradoxically, Syrian businessmen since the start of war in their country some nine years ago, are reported to have deposited up to $30 billion. Analysts argue that this in itself has damaged the Syrian economy and caused the national currency, the Lira, to hit an all-time low opposite the US dollar since the war broke out in 2011. No surprise then, that recent clashes have mainly been between this ‘patriotic’ triangle (which by the way includes Christian Maronite and Shiite Muslims) with strong ties to Syria and Iran on the one hand, and supporters of other Sunni, Druze and Christian factions with strong bonds to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, the US and in the case of Geagea’s Lebanese Forces, even to Israel.

Protests and counter-protests as gloom looms

For the third consecutive day, Lebanese army soldiers and security officers have had to intervene to break up confrontations between rival protests against the country’s elite. Gunfire has been reported in some parts of Lebanon amid claims and counter-claims that parties are armed and ready to escalate the situation much further once they get the green light from their bosses or operators. Although such accusations are accurate or not remain unverified, it has become more certain since the outbreak of protests, that Lebanon has entered an extremely dangerous phase which demands an urgent set of measures and actions that are badly needed in order to avoid a very likely and highly unfortunate slide down the hill of anarchy and chaos.

Lebanese broadcaster LBCI aired a video Monday, that showed heavy gunfire around the Cola bridge in the capital, Beirut. No injuries were reported and the source of the gunfire was not immediately clear. Several cars belonging to supporters of President Aoun were attacked by rival protesters as they crossed a Beirut suburb yesterday, and two protesters were reportedly wounded after Hezbollah and Amal supporters attacked some road-blocking demonstrators in the capital.

Is Lebanon’s worst danger lurking in the north?

Albeit recent confrontations in Beirut and some of its radical suburban areas were some of the worst since protests erupted in Lebanon, the worse could still come from the northern militant Sunni strongholds of Tripoli and Akar, where hardliners, masterminded and run by the influential former Justice Minister and Police Chief General Ashraf Rifi are reported to be armed to their teeth, supported by some Gulf Arab states, and getting ready for an imminent bloody showdown with rival Shiite and Christian factions alike. Rifi has recently established his well-organized, lucratively paid and heavily armed militia’ City Guardians, in Lebanon’s largest northern city of Sidon. His men quickly took over streets and squares with unchallenged numbers as protests escalated. Reports that thousands of terrorists and hardline Islamic fighters have managed to flee the Syrian conflict and take refuge in north Lebanon are likely to be true, but yet to be verified by independent sources.

Political pressure and popular outrage aggravated by extensive high-level corruption, a worsening economic crisis that features massive government debts, poor economic performance and US dollar shortage – let alone conflicting national and regional agendas in the country- are all factors pushing Lebanon faster towards the brink of the abyss. Unless a genuine and largely magical solution is forged out pretty quickly, this once called ‘Paris of the East’ could, God forbid, irrevocably fall into the mayhem of chaos, violence and destruction.

L'articolo Lebanon’s Protests Take a Dangerously Violent Turn proviene da InsideOver.