For most of history, conflicts between states have been fought with conventional, physical military means. When the digital revolution occurred, however, governments around the world utilized new technologies to change the stage of conflicts from traditional battlefields to cyberspace.

Cyberspace: the New Battlefield

In cyber warfare, states or non-state actors (e.g. terrorists) attack adversarial computers and information networks for various reasons. The advantages of cyber warfare are easily apparent: Without the typical rules of war, its costs and potential casualties are lesser, while far-reaching effects and damage against the enemy can still be generated, nonetheless. Moreover, while an unprovoked airstrike is seen as a declaration of war, a cyber-attack via a computer worm, virus, or Trojan horse can do significant damage without establishing a sufficient casus belli in the process.

In recent years, cyber warfare has produced spectacular incidents all over the globe and among various protagonists. Whether it is the US, Israel, Iran, Russia or North Korea, each nation continues to advance its modern warfare while exploiting adversarial weaknesses. Most notably, the US and Iran have been on a collision course for many years.

Stuxnet and its Relatives

The now omnipresent US actions against Iran were preceded by years of cyber armament during the Cold War by various world powers. Cyberattacks have been around for more than a decade, mainly for espionage purposes, but they also have the potential for physical destruction. The American NSA and Israel’s Unit 8200 are said to have been responsible for the first major cyber offensive via the Stuxnet computer worm in 2010.

Stuxnet disabled hundreds of centrifuges in a uranium enrichment plant in the Iranian city of Natanz. The attack set Iran’s nuclear program back for several years.

In May 2012, the security company Kaspersky discovered a malware program called Flame. It had attacked computers from the Iranian oil ministry on a large scale and stolen and deleted data. Flame is said to be related to “Stuxnet”, and thus also suspected to be of US-Israeli origin. With its sophisticated attack and defense tools, Israel remains one of the world’s leading nations in cyber warfare, as it also demonstrated two weeks ago during a daring cyberattack on a key Iranian port.

Only a year ago, when Iran shot down a US drone in June 2019, the US is said to have carried out another cyberattack in retaliation. That time, the Revolutionary Guard’s infrastructure, in particular, is said to have been affected.

Shamoon

Iran itself is said to have developed sophisticated cyber capabilities in response to the 2010 Stuxnet virus attack. The latter allows the mullahs to prevent a direct military confrontation with the US as Cyber-attacks that are carried out via proxy are difficult to prove in terms of origin. Since then, Tehran has been repeatedly accused of conducting sophisticated, destructive cyberattacks on its adversaries, including the Shamoon virus attack on Aramco’s Saudi oil company in 2017. The malware hijacked more than 2,000 files on 35,000 computers of the oil giant and replaced them with burning US flags.

Iranian hackers are also linked to continuous attacks on significant banking and training institutions in the United States, as well as critical infrastructure. In 2013, Iranian hackers entered a US dam control system 20 miles north of New York and damaged its operations. The attack only became known two years later.

Iran’s Focus on Cyber Warfare

In 2014 Iranian hackers attacked the Sands Casino in Las Vegas and paralyzed most of the company’s servers. The damage was estimated at $ 40 million. The reason for the attack is said to have been a statement by Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson: in the course of the nuclear dispute with Iran, Adelson suggested that an atomic bomb should be detonated in the Nevada desert as a warning of what could happen to Tehran.

Microsoft reported a more recent attack attempt in October 2019. According to the company, Iranian hackers had attacked Microsoft customer accounts. In addition to government officials and journalists, the targets included Iranian exiles and members of a US campaign team. Moreover, hackers are said to have tried to penetrate the campaign for the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to a report by Reuters.

Don’t Forget Russia

Besides the American-Israeli-Iranian power players, Russia is also massively involved in the cyberwar. Hardly any country has carried out digital attacks as widely and as spectacularly as the former Soviet Republic. The country expanded its ability to do this relatively early on. In the 1990s, disinformation about the war in Chechnya was first spread online via the internet. Large-scale DDoS attacks followed in the 2000s, attacks in which hostile servers were overloaded with a flood of requests from many computers until they collapsed. In 2007, Russian hackers were responsible for ensuring that computers around the world, coordinated in a botnet, directed their data streams to Estonia’s banking systems and government websites. The result: Nothing went on the screens of users in Estonia, pages were no longer accessible, no money transfers took place. There had previously been a dispute between Russia and Estonia because Estonia had transferred a controversial Soviet war memorial from Tallinn’s city center to a military cemetery. In 2008 Russia also blocked Georgia’s digital infrastructure at the beginning of the Russo-Georgian War, while a Ukrainian nuclear power plant is also said to have been temporarily paralyzed by a Russian attack.

Russia’s arguably most significant coup occurred in 2016 when Wikileaks published multiple internal emails from the US Democrats in the presidential election campaign, which stemmed from a Russian hacker attack. Additionally, as US intelligence confirmed, Russia actively interfered in the election via the spread of fake news and its now well-known troll farms. While the effect of these actions is hard if not impossible to quantify, it is fair to argue that it did not benefit candidate Hillary Clinton.

North Korea Hits Hard With the Sony Hack and More

North Korea is also an actor in the conflict. The latter first became apparent in 2014, when Sony Pictures temporarily stopped the release of The Interview in the US, in which North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is being parodied. Sony Pictures’ computers were previously the target of a hacking attack that stole internal data, including sensitive personal information. US intelligence experts suspect Office 121, North Korea’s elite hacker group, as the perpetrators.

North Korea struck again in 2017. Hundreds of thousands of computers in 150 countries ceased working when ransomware had been installed, all data had been encrypted, and a ransom had been demanded. Mainly private individuals were affected, but also companies such as Deutsche Bahn and Renault, the British health system NHS, the telephone giant Telefónica and the Russian Ministry of the Interior. Users were directed to transfer money using the electronic currency Bitcoin. Otherwise, the PC remained blocked. Shortly after the attack, IT security experts pointed out that the malware code led to the Lazarus group, which is believed to be North Korean intelligence.

It is essential to realize that these attacks are not isolated incidents, but a continuous campaign often planned and orchestrated over long periods. While reports will often refer to “hacker groups,” it is undeniable that the majority of these groups, particularly in totalitarian states, are an avatar for government intelligence and thus under the direction of their respective leaders. Over these last years, the attacks have also become more sophisticated, and with the US election in November, the cyberwar will only escalate further.

L'articolo The Cyber Attacks That Have Been Transforming Modern Warfare proviene da InsideOver.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has given out an ultimatum to the United States, warning that his country will soon unveil a new strategic weapon in its effort to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. According to North Korea’s Central News Agency, Kim made it clear that “he will never allow the impudent U.S to abuse Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) – U.S dialogue for meeting its sordid aim but will shift to a shocking actual action to make it pay for the pains sustained by our people so far and for the development so far restrained.”

The dictator further warned that “If the U.S persists in its hostile policy towards the DPRK, there will never be denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and the DPRK will steadily develop the necessary and prerequisite strategic weapons for the security of the state until the US rolls back its hostile policy.”

History Of Recent US-North Korea Negotiations

Kim and US President Donald Trump have met three times since June 2018, but no headway has been made after the two leaders failed to reach an agreement at the Vietnam summit in February of 2019. At the summit North Korea demanded the broad lifting of sanctions in exchange for partial surrender of its nuclear program but this was rejected by Washington. Since then the two leaders have been engaging in mockery, threats, war games and name calling.

The point of disagreement between the two leaders centers around the scope of the term denuclearization. Kim is offering to dismantle his nuclear program only if the United States withdraws its nuclear umbrella from South Korea and offers other major economic, diplomatic and security concessions.

Kim’s Denuclearization Double-Talk

It appears Kim is not really genuine about the denuclearization and has only been talking about it to win concessions from the US. Trump has repeatedly insisted that the US is willing to engage with Pyongyang in a rigorous process of negotiating a serious agreement with a strong denuclearization component, something North Koreans have not conclusively committed themselves to. Instead, North Korea’ s ambassador to the UN Kim Song described negotiations as a time-saving trick by the Americans

According to many observers, Kim’s aim is to gain new ground with the US, by getting diplomatic engagement with Washington, and to have sanctions lifted after which he may retain his nuclear program. This is  evident from the way Kim has been faltering about the question of denuclearization. At first he agreed to denuclearize but this changed to partial denuclearization, and on December 7 his ambassador to the UN Kim Song said denuclearization is now off the table. This was reaffirmed in the new year statement attributed to Kim declaring that the Hermit Kingdom will never give up its security for economic gains.

Compromise Is A Difficult – But Necessary – Path

These are very difficult concessions for both Kim and Trump to make. For Kim it is about the security and the existence of North Korea. He fears that America will turn against him after convincing him to get rid of his nuclear weapons. On the hand, Washington feels that the existence of North Korea’s nuclear program is a threat to global security and must be dismantled.

Looking at it from a neutral  perspective, North Korea has more to gain from its talks with the US and by dismantling its nuclear program. Any deal with America will be beneficial to Kim politically and will also come with economic benefits for his country.

Politically a deal would also help Kim legitimize his leadership and to gain recognition as well as shaping his legacy. Economically it will help him deliver the economic reforms he had promised his people in 2011 and uplift their standard of living. It would also open the door for funds from the World Bank and IMF and attract foreign investors.

The Impact Of Sanctions On North Korea

Because of the sanctions imposed by the United Nations on North Korea, other countries are limited in their ability to engage with North Korea economically. In 2018, the US imposed further targeted sanctions on Chinese and Russian companies for engaging with the dictatorship. Such sanctions hurt the ordinary North Koreans but can only be removed if Kim drops his hard-line position and returns to the negotiating table.

Perhaps the most affected areas by these sanctions are business and trade relations between North and South Korea. According to South Korean leader Moon Jae-in, economic cooperation between the two countries could be worth at least $149.9 billion over the next 30 years if relations are normalized. But this is being hindered by sanctions.

South Korea Wants A Relationship With North Korea

Moon knows how this could be beneficial to both countries and has expressed hope for speedy progress in talks so that North and South Korea can resume economic relations.

“When the deep-rooted distrust between the two Koreas and between the North and the United States is lifted, the mutual agreement can be implemented ,” Jae-in said. “When peace is established on the Korean peninsula along with complete denuclearization, economic cooperation can be carried out in earnest.”

Moon’s other plans include building a railroad linking his country with North Korea and a joint industrial park, but he has been cautious about any move forward on the projects because of international sanctions .

North Korea Needs To Make Some Concessions To Move Forward

Clearly North Korea is losing out on many fronts, and that’s why Kim must drop his nuked ego and talk to America. After all what is the point of having nukes over a starving and malnourished population? The answer is that it’s not very worthwhile. And how beneficial would it be to get rid of the nukes, but have donor funds, foreign investment, and also engage in bilateral trade without restrictions? The answer is very beneficial.

If anything, there is a drive by the United Nations for countries to ban nuclear weapons. Although some may call it a pipe dream, who knows? Maybe in the near future the entire world will be nuclear free. Of course North Korea will need some security guarantees in case it gets rid of its nuclear weapons, but that will only happen if Kim first commits himself to negotiations instead of test-firing weapons to try to blackmail the United States and gain concessions.

L'articolo Why Kim Jong-un Should Return To The Negotiating Table proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea does not celebrate Christmas, but it is willing to make an exception this year to give the United States a gift. According to Ri The Song, first Vice Minister at the Foreign Ministry, it us up to Washington to decide the nature of the present. Reading between the lines, Pyongyang appears to be hinting at further missile tests if the US refuses to return to the negotiating table. The gift could be a concession, however, if American diplomats reengage their North Korean counterparts after months of stalled discussions. 

Merry Christmas

It is not entirely clear what the gift may entail, however, so for now, Ri’s comments have only provoked speculation. The last time North Korea gave the US a “gift” was in 2017 for the Fourth of July when it test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile. Pyongyang set a deadline of the end of the year for nuclear discussions, but with only three weeks left in December and no news from Washington, time will likely run out. 

Ri accused the US of purposely delaying peace negotiations for political gain. 

“The dialogue touted by the US is, in essence, nothing but a foolish trick hatched to keep the DPRK bound to dialogue and use it in favor of the political situation and election in the US,” he said.

The North Korean situation has taken a backseat to other pressing matters, such as the US-China trade war and the Iranian nuclear deal. At home, US President Donald Trump is also facing impeachment over a scandal involving Ukraine and Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden. Although Trump opened the door to talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un when he took office, discussions have lacked steady progress. Trump even became the first sitting president to meet with a North Korean leader at the demilitarized zone since the Korean War, an impressive gesture toward building a new relationship. 

Trump appeared unfazed by Kim’s promise of a holiday gift.

“We’ll see what happens,” he said, speaking from London. “My relationship with Kim Jong Un is really good, but that doesn’t mean he won’t abide by the agreement we signed. I hope he lives up to the agreement, but we’re going to find out.”

Updated Technology

The agreement Trump referred to was signed at a summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018. Each agreed to establish relations in the pursuit of peace and prosperity. Furthermore, Pyongyang agreed to work toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This year, North Korea began test-firing missiles once more, but Trump did not budge.

“North Korea fired off some small weapons, which disturbed some of my people, and others, but not me,” Trump said. Although he said he hopes Kim abides by their agreement, it has become clear that Kim is only willing to do so if the US returns to the negotiating table. 

Pyongyang fired another missile on a new launcher dubbed its “super-large” launcher Nov. 29 in what it claimed was a “final review” of the setup. The practical effect of the test is that North Korea is ready to deploy updated offensive missiles, but the underlying message was meant not for its South Korean adversary, but the Trump administration. Kim is not baiting the US into war, but rather flexing the nation’s muscles to convince Washington to reopen diplomatic discussions. 

Waiting Game

It is neither a new nor recent strategy; Iran is using a similar playbook by gradually reducing its adherence to the Obama-era nuclear deal. The strategy has not worked for Tehran, but North Korea may find success where the Middle Eastern state has failed because Trump has expressed admiration for Kim and spoken highly of talks. At the last meeting between the two powers, American officials told the media they felt talks were “good,” even as North Korean diplomats expressed the opposite sentiment. 

Trump has met Kim, but while the American leader viewed it as a concession, Kim was emboldened by the move. As American negotiators continued to hold discussions, the Trump administration was comfortable with the pace and lack of progress, aside from a non-binding agreement signed between Trump and Kim. Pyongyang has different take on the situation, preferring to have a formal deal in place before the end of 2019. 

North Korea perhaps wants a deal made before the US election season begins in earnest because they fear Trump might lose and due to the time demands required to run for president. If Trump is busy holding rallies, he will not have time to focus on North Korea. A Christmas gift is a reminder that the problem is still there and Kim is not content to wait idly in the hope that one day Trump might pick up the phone again and arrange for another summit. Trump’s nonchalant demeanour indicates that he has larger obsessions at home (i.e. impeachment) and abroad (Iran and China) and when you deal with Trump, you do it on his terms, at his pace.

L'articolo North Korea Promises Christmas Gift for America proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea and the U.S. are returning to a negotiating table to start another round of denuclearization talks in mid-November at the latest, a South Korean parliament member revealed. “The NIS (National Intelligence Service) expected the talks would resume this month or early December at the latest,” South Korean lawmaker Lee Eun-Jae briefed reporters as Nikkei Asian Review reported.

Previously, North Korea set April as a deadline following the failure of the Hanoi talks last February due to differences over denuclearization and how it works.

The meetings between Trump and Kim Jong-Un

In June 2018, US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un made a historic meeting in Singapore, which gained worldwide attention. The world expected the highly-anticipated summit would create a peaceful Korean Peninsula.

During the press conference, Trump hailed the meeting as productive and honest, adding that Jong-un had agreed to dismantle missile testing sites.

However, the Singapore summit did not elaborate on how North Korea would achieve denuclearization.

“I think right now, we are absolutely stuck,” Sue Mi Terry from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told NPR.

Last February, both leaders met again in Hanoi, Vietnam. However, the meeting failed to produce any agreements. They were supposed to talk on denuclearization, removal of sanctions imposed on Pyongyang, the reduction of US troops in South Korea, and the declaration to end the Korean War.

At the end of June, Trump abruptly met Jong-Un at the demilitarized zone after the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, ended. North Korean media outlets praised the last-minute summit. Both leaders of the world’s nuclear powers held a closed meeting.

During the press conference, Trump said that he and the 36-year-old leader were ready to re-start the negotiation after the failed Hanoi summit. However, Trump hardly mentioned the word ‘denuclearization’ during the press conference, and Jong-Un did not say anything related to sanction removals during the DMZ open session.

North Korea’s frustration and different interpretation of the term “denuclearization”

North Korea has tested missiles several times since the faltered Hanoi talks, seen as a form of disappointment with Washington, which insists it will not lift sanctions unless North Korea assures total denuclearization.

The US and North Korea have different interpretations of the definition of denuclearization. The latter demands security guarantee before giving up all its nuclear weapons that the US removes sanctions and stops military drills with South Korea.

While Washington wants Pyongyang to disband its nuclear arsenals before removing sanctions. Speaking after the surprise summit at the DMZ, Trump stated that economic embargoes would remain in effect unless the upcoming talks go on as smoothly as expected.

Last October, delegates from the US and North Korea met again in the capital of Sweden, Stockholm. However, the talks broke down, and North Korea blamed the US for not providing any new proposals, as Al Jazeera reported.

Contrary to what North Korean envoys complained, US delegates praised the meeting, saying that they had ‘good discussions’ with North Korean counterparts.

“The early comments from the DPRK [North Korean] delegation do not reflect the content or the spirit of today’s 8.5-hour discussion. The US brought creative ideas and had good discussions with its DPRK counterparts,” a statement from the US State Department said as quoted by BBC.

What to expect from the upcoming meeting?
Three meetings between Trump and Jong-un showed that something must be done to bridge the difference over the term denuclearization. As long as both leaders still stick with their principles, the situation will remain the same.

The biggest sticking points are the absence of a commonly held definition of complete denuclearization and a failure to agree on practical steps and corresponding measures necessary to achieve that objective,” Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations told VOA ahead of the Stockholm talks.

As previous talks ended with no concrete results, it is unclear whether the planned talks will help narrow the difference over denuclearization.

L'articolo US and North Korea To Hold Talks Mid-November Amid Growing Skepticism proviene da InsideOver.