This year hasn’t really been a great year for anyone, but for Tehran it has been extraordinarily bad. Beginning with the assassination of top General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the powerful revolutionary guards, followed by an initial surge in coronavirus cases and then the second wave, the Islamic Republic is under pressure from all sides — geopolitical, economic, health — with an aggressive Washington trying to force it into submission. 

Iran’s Nightmare Scenario: Arab States Allying with Israel

It was in this context the latest agreement known as the Abraham Accord arrived, normalizing diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Unsurprisingly, it was brokered by the US. Of late, Abu Dhabi and other Gulf capitals have become increasingly inclined to partner up with the Jewish state as a means of containing Iran’s regional influence. 

The Abraham Accord was just the beginning. Reports began emerging in the media of other countries in the region soon normalizing relations with Israel. To lobby for that cause, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo embarked on his Middle East tour from Aug 23 to 27, beginning with Jerusalem where in a presser with Netanyahu, Iran was referenced for its “malicious influence”. 

“This is the alliance of the moderates against the radicals, against the – those who use violence and aggression to further their aims against those who believe that we can offer a better people – a better future for our people through cooperation,” the Israeli Prime Minister said of his latest partnership, while taking a clear dig at Iran. 

Pompeo’s Alliance-Building Efforts

In addition to meeting his Emirati counterpart, Pompeo also held discussions with leaders of Sudan, Bahrain and Oman to further rally his cause. Confronting Iran was at the crux of the talks, as the Sunni majority countries in the region feel insecure about Iran’s growing sphere of influence. At the same time, the Trump administration kept the pressure up on the Islamic Republic by trying to trigger snapback sanctions against Tehran, even though the US has already pulled out of the JCPOA. 

While Iran had kept calm as far as the reshaping of regional alliances was concerned, the threat of sanctions did rile it up. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote a 29-page letter to the UN Secretary General, affirming his country’s position that the US has no right to trigger the mechanism given that it withdrew from the nuclear deal. 

“US justifications for its self-abrogated right to the “reapplication of the provisions of terminated resolutions” on Iran have no credibility or legitimacy, and need to be rejected by the Council,” the document read. 

The Current Situation

Washington’s obsession is in trying to corner Tehran could have serious consequences with respect to the country’s nuclear weapons program, as it has previously hinted at enriching uranium. But for now, the United Nations has rejected the US bid and Iran has also been fairly cooperative. In fact, just on August 26, it agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to two sites suspected of carrying out illicit work in the past. 

For now, even the US efforts regarding fresh diplomatic alliances in the region seem to be unsuccessful as Bahrain emphasized its commitment to the Arab Peace of Initiative of 2002 and refused to recognize Israel until there is a solution for Palestinian statehood.

Sudan too excused itself from any such deal with Israel, saying the issue is beyond the mandate of the current transitional government. How permanent their stances are going to be is anyone’s guess since Washington wouldn’t want to throw away the momentum it has already gained.

Until then, Iran hangs on, dodging bullets shot its way while exercising as much restraint as possible.

L'articolo Iran in a Tough Spot as US Cranks Up Diplomatic Pressure proviene da InsideOver.

Chabahar, once a hardly-known city in Iran with a population of just over 100,000 has lately achieved significant importance in the arena of regional geopolitics. It started in 2016 when Indian leader Narendra Modi visited Iran and met his counterpart Hassan Rouhani. At that time, Modi announced plans to build and operate the Chabahar port in Iran with an investment of $500 million. 

Why Does India Want To Build A Port In Iran?

The port was New Delhi’s response to Beijing’s growing interest in Pakistan’s Gwadar region as part of their Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chabahar, which is some 100km west of Pakistan’s border, is intended to serve as a transit route for the Afghanistan and Central Asian states. There was a valid rationale to it. Pakistan, which has long served as the go-between country for India-Afghanistan trade, has had increasingly strained ties with both Kabul and New Delhi, where the respective governments’ antagonism towards Islamabad brought them closer. To woo Afghan leader Ashraf Ghani away from China’s BRI, such an alternative was in a way necessary and Chabahar’s location served the dual purpose of expanding trade while also containing Pakistan by keeping a close eye from a 100km radius. 

US Leaving Iran Deal Had Negative Impact On Chabahar Project

However, the grand project suffered a severe blow after Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Not only that, the US President also tried to strong-arm India into its camp, demanding that it reduce oil imports from the Islamic Republic. 

Such anti-Iran US policy made New Delhi’s rapprochement with Tehran difficult and that translated into a lack of interest in the development of Chabahar. According to reports from mid-2019, the company responsible for executing the project had failed to pay a European company for hardware supplies while also cancelling its contract to manage the port. Moreover, India also slashed the relevant budgetary allocation from INR 150 to INR 50. 

A New Hope For Chabahar

However, the past week rekindled some hope when Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar called upon his Iranian counterpart Javed Zarif in Tehran for a two-day visit. Both sides expressed their commitment to expand trade and commerce while also pledging to fast-track the development of Chabahar. 

“Completing the Chabahar-Zahedan railway and connecting it to Iran’s national railway can elevate the position of Chabahar port, revolutionise regional commerce and help transport goods on a cheaper and shorter route,” Rouhani said.

Just around the same time came an even more significant development, as various media houses reported that the US has given written assurance to India “that it will help facilitate global banks to fund the purchase of equipment worth $85 million to be erected at Chabahar port.”

Specifics Of The New Funding For Chabahar

According to the Hindu Businessline, “India Ports Global has ordered four rail-mounted quay cranes (RMQCs) for a combined $29.8 million from Chinese port crane maker Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co Ltd (ZPMC) and 14 rubber-tyred gantry cranes or RTGCs for about $18 million from Finnish crane maker Cargotec OYJ for erecting at Chabahar port. It had also placed orders for purchasing mobile harbour cranes at Italy’s Italgru SRL.” 

Due to the US sanctions on Tehran, many global and Indian banks were forced to cut down on their Iran transactions, so the latest US assurance would help calm the financial institutions and help investors secure letters of credit. This might stoke some limited fears on Pakistan’s part, where the pace of China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in recent times.

L'articolo India, Iran Pledge To Speed Up Chabahar Port Development proviene da InsideOver.