In what has been a historic year for Israel following the normalization of relations with Bahrain and the UAE, the Israeli Government is now looking to end its long dispute with Lebanon over its maritime border.

Negotiations Over the Maritime Border

US officials mediated in the negotiations, which took place at the base of a UN peacekeeping force in the Lebanese town of Naqoura.

However, both sides have insisted that they have not normalized any ties.

Despite this, the most positive outcome from a potential agreement between Jerusalem and Beirut would be for both sides to be able to exploit potentially lucrative natural gas fields under the Mediterranean Sea.

The US under the leadership of President Donald Trump has been instrumental in ensuring that these talks happened on Wednesday. Since the US President was elected almost four years ago, the US has been mediating discussions between Lebanese and Israeli officials.

These Talks are a Foreign Policy Win for Donald Trump

The first round of talks were attended by US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker and the US ambassador to Algeria John Desrocher.

The negotiations lasted for only an hour, but both governments agreed to continue their discussions on October 28, which shows that the US can still have a positive impact on Middle Eastern politics.

The so-called Blue Line boundary was drawn up by the UN after Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, ending 22 years of occupation.

But following the month-long war that killed 1,190 Lebanese citizens and 163 Israelis in 2006, the ceasefire ended.

Both Lebanon and Israel have technically been at war since the Arab-Israeli conflict of 1948-49, but it appears unlikely that Lebanon will be unable to maintain its hostile stance toward Israel as the economic impact of the coronavirus and political turmoil continue to paralyze the entire nation. There are many benefits in store for both Israel and Lebanon if they can end their maritime border dispute on October 28.

Both Netanyahu and Diab Would Benefit Politically From Peace

Even though the timings of the talks are no coincidence as Trump hopes to use them to show how competent he is at handling US foreign policy, such a deal would also benefit both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanon’s current Prime Minister Hassan Diab.

Netanyahu is facing pressure at home due to his handling of the coronavirus and a forthcoming corruption trial. There is also the possibility that Israel may face a fresh set of elections in the near future, which means that the Israeli Prime Minister needs to convince his electorate beforehand that he is competent at handling foreign relations.

Diab also faces domestic and international pressure to reform Lebanon’s constitution following the Beirut explosion. He is also facing a prolonged economic crisis and being able to access billions of dollars’ worth of natural resources would be a significant boost to both the Israeli and Lebanese economies. According to Israel’s Energy Ministry, Lebanon could extract gas worth up to $6 billion annually from the disputed maritime area.

These Talks Could Help Israel and Lebanon Resolve Other Disputes

Wednesday’s talks failed to address the main bones of contention between Israel and Lebanon – the Shebaa Farms dispute, Hezbollah’s missile stockpile, and Israeli accusations that Hezbollah has violated UN Security Council resolutions by building covert weapons depots and military positions in southern Lebanon. But Shimrit Meir, an Israeli columnist and expert on Arab affairs, told Foreign Policy that the moment nations are tied together can be a de-escalating factor. This means that there could be progress on these issues in the future.

Most importantly, the strengthening of economic ties between Israel and Lebanon will be an important first step to help end a conflict between two countries that has lasted for over 70 years, and this could result in long-term peace in the Middle East.

The first round of US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon were truly historic in nature. Let us hope that they lead to further progress on October 28.

L'articolo The Benefits of Israel and Lebanon Resolving Their Maritime Border Dispute proviene da InsideOver.

Lebanon has been plunged into one crisis after another, beginning with mass protests and economic turmoil and recently with the explosion in Beirut that killed more than 220 and destroyed vast amounts of infrastructure. As a result, the entire cabinet of Prime Minister Hassan Diab resigned just days after, making room for a new government to take its place. 

Mustapha Adib Named as New Lebanese PM

On Monday, President Michel Aoun named Mustapha Adib as the new Prime Minister. Adib becomes the third person to hold the office since January of this year. He was voted in by 90 of the 120 members of parliament, with backing from the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal movement, as well as the Sunni Future Movement of former leader Saad Hariri. 

The new PM — required to be a Sunni under the Doha Agreement — has the monumental task of rebuilding Beirut’s infrastructure and gaining the trust of a frustrated populace, which has been protesting on and off for almost a year.

“There is no time for talk, promises and wishes. It is a time for action,” Adib said in his first speech. 

Lebanon’s Economy is in Freefall

Adib’s job becomes extraordinarily difficult considering the state of Lebanese economy, which is facing one of the worst turmoils in history. The country’s gross domestic product is expected to plunge by 12% in 2020 while public debt levels near 175% of the GDP. Adding to the troubles is the unemployment rate of around 25% while the budget deficit is approximately 15%, making the prospect of any new reconstruction and comeback even more daunting. 

Lebanon’s economic crisis has been brewing for a long time now, as just in March the country defaulted on its dollar-denominated bonds for the first time ever. Adib is expected to revive talks with the International Monetary Fund for a $10 billion facility after the previous round in early July failed. But given the long-term sovereign credit outlook — downgraded by Fitch to CCC, a non-investment grade — it’s going to be a tough sell.  

‘The IMF is Exploring All Possible Ways to Support the People of Lebanon’

After the August explosions, some hope for support emerged as France’s Emmanuel Macron rallied to Lebanon’s cause while IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said: “The IMF is exploring all possible ways to support the people of Lebanon. It is essential to overcome the impasse in the discussions on critical reforms and put in place a meaningful program to turn around the economy and build accountability and trust in the future of the country.”

Before any negotiations with the multilateral lender, Adib will meet with Macron, who played an instrumental role by pressuring the ruling elite to name a new candidate. The French President is trying to get more international financial support for Lebanon’s development and fiscal management. 

However, there are now questions whether the new leader can bring any meaningful change to the rotten system or is it merely a change of face. Adib had been serving as the Lebanese ambassador to Germany since 2013 and like his predecessor Hassan Diab, is an academic by qualification and has previously taught at a number of universities. Similarly, his political days go back to the time of billionaire PM Najeeb Mikati with whom he served as an advisor. 

Hence, his appointment is unlikely to be welcomed by the general public that has been protesting to completely overhaul the current political system and get rid of the corrupt ruling elite who have captured the government.

Adib, too, seems to be a member of that same exclusive club.

L'articolo Tough Road Ahead for New Lebanese PM proviene da InsideOver.

The Lebanese government has succumbed to the pressure of the people: Prime Minister Hassan Diab and his cabinet resigned on Monday. Protesters in the streets of Beirut are demanding further far-reaching reforms.

Diab’s Lack of Self-Awareness

The Lebanese government resigned on Monday in the aftermath of last week’s devastating explosion and the subsequent mass protests in the capital, Beirut. In a televised address, Diab blamed the widespread corruption in his country for the massive detonation and said that corruption was bigger in the country than the state of Lebanon itself.

The political class was the real tragedy of the Lebanese people. They had fought against the new government with all means to prevent changes, Diab said – and thus he excluded any personal responsibility. According to Diab’s victim narrative, his government had “endured a lot of false accusations”, that left him no choice but to “take a step back” in order to comply with the Lebanese desire for a “state of law, justice and transparency”.

Violence Continues to Spread

During his speech on Monday evening, clashes between demonstrators and security forces in central Beirut had erupted again, similar to those that occurred over the weekend, when demonstrators tried to enter parliament and fought with the security forces. They blamed the corruption and negligence of the government for the disaster. According to official information, one police officer was killed, and more than 200 people were injured.

Several ministers resigned from their posts afterwards. Most recently, Justice Minister Marie-Claude Nadschm and Finance Minister Ghasi Wasni on Monday. The previous week, during a visit to the site of the disaster, Nadschm had already been verbally attacked by protesters. Prior to Najschm and Wasni, Information Minister Manal Abdel Samad and Environment Minister Kattar Demianos had already resigned.

According to government circles, Hassan Diab had desperately tried to keep his cabinet together. He even sought to propose new elections to his cabinet on Monday in order to calm down the precarious situation, even though the next regular election in Lebanon would not have taken place until 2022.

Diab’s government has only been in office since January and after months of uncertainty. He succeeded Saad Hariri, who resigned after mass protests at the end of October, which were primarily due to tax levies.

Hezbollah’s Role and the Status Quo

Diab’s government was supported, inter alia, by Hezbollah, which is loyal to Iran and remains highly influential and powerful in Lebanon. Due to a severe economic crisis and the corona pandemic, large parts of the Lebanese population slipped into poverty during his tenure.

The leading political blocs in parliament must now agree on a successor. It is unclear how long this will take. Hezbollah plays a central role. Hardly any government can be formed against the organisation, which is considered a terrorist group by many foreign states. However, it is questionable whether a mere substitution of personnel can be sufficient to calm the situation, as the demonstrators are demanding far-reaching political reforms.

The International Community Gets Involved

Corresponding demands can also be heard from abroad. The International Monetary Fund seeks to help Lebanon with a rescue package but is demanding political agreement on comprehensive reforms. UN Secretary-General António Guterres also called for political changes. At the same time, he promised long-term support, saying “the United Nations system will continue to help Lebanon in this emergency in every possible way.”

The disaster on August 4, killed around 160 people and injured almost 6,000 in the port of Beirut. Large parts of the Lebanese capital have been devastated. The cause of the disaster is reportedly a fire that detonated 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate. The cargo with the extremely flammable chemical had been stored in a hall at the port for years. Investigations are still underway, however.

L'articolo Lebanon’s Government Resigns in the Wake of Last Week’s Deadly Blast proviene da InsideOver.

The Beirut explosion that took the lives of 160 of the city’s residents has already sparked change in Lebanon and days of violent protests. Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced his resignation and that of his government whilst addressing the nation on Monday, and he described the blast as a “disaster beyond measure.”

But the alarming rate at which political developments are taking place in Lebanon has also caught the attention of Iran. Tehran has already called on the international community to refrain from politicizing last week’s explosion in Beirut. They also pleaded with Washington to start lifting sanctions against Lebanon.

Tehran Accuses Macron of ‘Interventionism’

Iran will begin to monitor events in Lebanon closely as Tehran is one of the main sponsors of Hezbollah, a Shi’ite Islamist party and militant group which has influence over the Lebanese Government, a radio and a satellite station, and social services. They have been described as a “state within a state.” The Washington Institute discovered that the Iranian Government provides the terrorist group with $100 million per year. It is no wonder that Tehran is alarmed by French President Emmanuel Macron’s “interventionism.”

Iran did not attend an emergency donor conference on Sunday led by Macron. The French leader assured the event’s audience that he would closely monitor how aid was being spent. The Iranian Government itself has so far provided Lebanon with $298 million for immediate humanitarian relief.

Lebanon Becoming Part of Larger Geopolitical Fracas

It is more than likely that Iran will use Lebanon as an opportunity to enter into an international dispute with France, should the latter choose to increase its level of intervention in its former colony. Iran’s ultra-conservative paper Kayhan has already stated that Macron’s proposed reforms in Lebanon would result in the elimination of Hezbollah and the “rescue of the Israeli regime.” Therefore, the French President’s attempts to curb Hezbollah’s influence over Lebanon could be met with rebukes from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in the future.

Rouhani will be keen to clash with France over who leads Lebanon in the future. This is a tactic that Tehran has deployed before when they helped Hezbollah put Diab into power last October. With the Lebanese Prime Minister leading a caretaker government until he can find a successor, there is no doubt that Iran will do all it can to prevent a reformist candidate from breaking Hezbollah’s grip over Lebanon.

Iran may well increase the amount of funding Hezbollah currently receives from Tehran, as the terrorist group has been used as a means to crush protests in the past. Hezbollah fighters who returned to Lebanon from the Syrian battlefield last year attacked protesters such as poor Shi’ites who have historically supported the militias. Prior to the Beirut explosion, The Soufan Center stated that the use of violence against protesters last November reduced the numbers of protests in Lebanon.

Iran Won’t Loosen its Grip on Hezbollah

Nonetheless, Iran’s ability to fund Hezbollah will depend greatly upon its economic fortunes. Focus Economics believes that US sanctions and the coronavirus will cause the Iranian economy to contract sharply for the third consecutive year by 7.3 percent.

Hezbollah’s funding may also be affected by US-Iranian tensions if Donald Trump is re-elected in November. Trump claims that he will ‘have a deal with Iran within four weeks’ if he wins this year’s US election. But it is unlikely that Washington will approve of a deal that lifts sanctions against Tehran just so that they can continue to fund terrorist groups, which was a flaw with Obama’s Iran Deal. The US President may well want to make it harder for the Iranian regime to continue to fund terrorist organizations.

By proposing to reform Lebanon’s political structure, Macron may have unintentionally paved the way for a power struggle between France and Iran over the former French colony. Tehran is already winning due to Hezbollah’s strong grip over the country. To prevent Beirut’s explosion from becoming a wasted opportunity to reform Lebanon, Macron must prevail.

L'articolo How Will Iran React to Hezbollah’s Waning Influence in Lebanon? proviene da InsideOver.

A massive explosion shook Beirut on Tuesday, Aug. 4. The latest reports indicate that the incident caused 100 fatalities while more than 4,000 people were injured.

What Happened?

The explosion occurred in the center of the Lebanese capital Beirut on Tuesday evening. Footage published on social media showed a column of smoke rising in the vicinity of the harbor area, after which a pressure wave occured. The latter caused significant destruction in the streets of the city center. Even more than a kilometer away windows and balcony doors broke and collapsed and falling walls were seen. Large parts of the port have been razed, and many buildings in Beirut have been seriously damaged.

In the immediate aftermath, the Lebanese army helped bring the injured to hospitals and called for the donation of blood. As of Wednesday morning, the Lebanese Red Cross has put the number of deaths at least 100. More than 4,000 people are also injured, the aid organization confirmed earlier today. The number could still increase significantly, as officials in Lebanon say people are buried under the rubble. The governor of the capital spoke of a “national disaster comparable to Hiroshima.”

What Caused the Explosion?

While the exact reason for the explosion currently remains unclear, different speculations have been put forward.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab said on Tuesday evening that a substantial amount of ammonium nitrate could have caused the detonation. An estimated 2,750 tons of the substance were reportedly stored in a hall at the port for six years without safety precautions. As Diab said, this was “unacceptable.” Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun has called for an emergency cabinet meeting this Wednesday saying: “I won’t rest until I know the person in charge and give him the toughest punishment.”

The explosion in Beirut from satellite

Ammonium nitrate, which can also be used to produce explosive devices, can detonate at high temperatures. The substance is used for rocket propulsion and above all for the production of fertilizers. The colorless crystals were also in the dangerous goods warehouse in the Chinese city of Tianjin, where 173 people were killed in 2015 after a series of explosions.

Alternate Theories About the Explosion

Other interpretations are currently still circulating. President Trump, citing his generals, stated the explosion in Beirut was an attack.

There has been armed conflict in the border area with Israel in the past few days. In addition, Israel’s air force had bombed Iranian targets in Syria that night. However, Israeli media, citing senior government officials, has stated that Israel was not involved.

The port is also an essential epicenter in Lebanon, which is notorious for corruption and mismanagement: millions of goods and money have been disappearing there in opaque networks for decades. Opposite the port area is the party headquarters of the Kataeb, the country’s oldest Christian party, but also the Ministry of Energy, in front of which people have been demonstrating for months against the inflated prices and low quality of state services.

Approaching UN Verdict on Hezbollah Attack

Moreover, a significant court ruling is also expected for this Friday: A UN special tribunal will then announce its verdict on four Hezbollah members suspected of being involved in the bombing of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri 15 years ago. A correlation between the ruling and the explosion was fueled by reports of a second explosion in Beirut near the Future Movement headquarters, Tayyar al-Mustaqbal, headed by Hariri’s son. Saad Hariri, who led the country as prime minister for a long time after the death of his father, announced his resignation in autumn 2019.

Lebanon is in Economic and Political Freefall

Lebanon is currently going through a period of considerable volatility: an economic and financial crisis has put the state on the verge of bankruptcy. Inflation and unemployment have risen rapidly recently, even the once broad middle class threatens to become impoverished. Despite urgently needed loans, the government was unable to agree on reforms required by the International Monetary Fund.

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti resigned on Monday after only six months because of the cabinet’s horrid balance sheet and only on Tuesday, demonstrators tried to storm the Ministry of Energy in Beirut after weeks of massive blackouts.

Meanwhile, UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres has already pledged to support the country, promising to actively help to process the incident and support the country in this difficult time.

L'articolo Beirut Blast Kills Hundreds, Injures Thousands proviene da InsideOver.

Lebanon’s economic problems are a byproduct of Washington’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran, and could in fact drive the the two Middle Eastern states closer together. Inaction from the US, derived from an unwillingness to support governments it views as adversaries, has left Lebanon with virtually no other options, particularly as the International Monetary Fund is conditioning aid on the strict oversight of Beirut’s government and Hezbollah.

Maximum Pressure Creates Shared Problems

While Iran faces its own similar struggles that seem to compound daily, it is close enough to assist Lebanon, as Ali Hashem wrote for Foreign Policy. Unlike Venezuela, which Tehran tried to sell gasoline to, Beirut is both nearby and predominantly Shi’ite. The two states have a lot in common, thanks in part to Iran’s support of Hezbollah.

They are also both victims of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign which has claimed Lebanon as a casualty. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also worsened the situation by barring Iran from offloading oil to Lebanon.

How Much Could Iran Help Lebanon?

Although Tehran is sanctioned by the US government, its proxy network would prove much harder to suffocate. Hezbollah could act as an intermediary to shuffle resources between borders, thereby facilitating the direly needed economic assistance for Beirut.

To make matters easier for Lebanon, Iran is accepting payment in Lebanese pounds due to its usefulness in funding Hezbollah. Joel Rayburn, US deputy assistant secretary at the Center for Global Policy, dismissed the idea, citing Iran’s lack of resources and present financial predicament as its inability to provide assistance to Lebanon.

Shi’ite Bond

However, Iran coming to Lebanon’s rescue would live up to some of Tehran’s past promises that all Beirut needs to do is ask and help will arrive. A quick dismissal of Iran’s power to scrape together a life support system for Lebanon could end up being foolish. Furthermore, such a hasty assessment with a focus on quantitative data ignores the full nature and scope of the Iran–Lebanon relationship.

Is it even possible to calculate the value of the Shi’ite bond? In a turbulent region such as the Middle East, religious ties factor heavily into decisions.

“What the U.S. government has failed to grasp over the past four decades of its fight with Iran in a country like Lebanon is the fact that Iranian influence was bred organically in areas where Shiites are a majority,” Hashem wrote.

That framework is foreign to Washington. As Hashem also noted, the Lebanese civil war wasn’t even capable of turning it away from Iran-backed Hezbollah. The reality is that decades of Iran exerting its Shiite influence has left Lebanon isolated on the global stage. There are few allies it could consider appealing to for help; Iran is all that is left for surefire support.

In early July, Hezbollah announced it had begun discussions with the Lebanese government about a possible trade deal with Iran, as Reuters reported.

“We started a discussion…to see where this option can go,” said Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah. “This track is moving … What’s the result going to be? I don’t know. But we have to try.”

Chinese Option

Another possible solution to Lebanon’s woes is seeking help from China, as Radio Farda reported. Tehran has already inked a deal with Beijing and Beirut could soon follow. Nasrallah has trumpeted the idea of a Chinese bailout since June.

“Chinese companies are ready to inject money into this country,” he said in a televised speech. “If this happened, it would bring money to the country, bring investment, create job opportunities, allow heavy transport, and so on.”

Although Lebanon is considered a friend of the US and receives American aid, Hezbollah is another matter entirely. While Washington would be an ideal benefactor to assist Lebanon, Hezbollah’s control over the government makes it an impossibility. As the group continues to be branded a terrorist organisation, its ties to Prime Minister Hassan Diab means the US is not an option for support.

Therefore, Beirut is looking to Tehran and Beijing. America and international institutions like the IMF have left no other choices. Lebanon witnesses the collapse transpiring in Iran and Venezuela—why should it let itself fall into a similar state of ruin when it is free to seek outside help? 

Accepting aid from either would surely have the US rethinking the aid it provides, however. Officials from Washington have already warned as such. It may have no choice, though, and the deal would be a benefit for Beijing if it includes access to the Port of Tripoli, which would act as an important cog in the Belt and Road Initiative.

The US maximum pressure campaign on Iran, while effective, has also served to foster more opposition in other states such as Lebanon. The worse the situation becomes, the more likely it is that the coordination between the two increases as they struggle to survive.

L'articolo Economic Death Spiral Makes Lebanon Look to Iran For Help proviene da InsideOver.

As if the deepening political deadlock as well as rapidly worsening living standards were not enough for the small yet once thriving Mediterranean country now facing an economic meltdown, rising tension in Lebanon took on an even worse new dimension this week. The increased problems started after a fresh row with Trump’s ambassador to Beirut, which became embroiled in a diplomatic spat with the United States over the weekend after a Lebanese judge banned local and foreign media outlets from interviewing the US ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea.

Diplomatic Dispute

The controversial step followed Shea’s intensive and provocative media statements which were widely regarded as direct meddling in Lebanon’s internal affairs. This was interpreted as being in breach of the Vienna Treaty governing the activities and parameters of diplomatic missions worldwide. Judge Mohamed Mazeh issued his order regarding the US ambassador soon after her statement that “US sanctions will only aim to put pressure on Hezbollah and its supporters” was made during an interview with Lebanese media Friday. The row was later resolved as Lebanon’s Justice Minister received the US ambassador, explaining the reasons and sensitivities behind the judge’s decision. Mazeh, as a result of the consequent overruling of his decision regarding ambassador Shea, submitted his resignation Tuesday.

With No Breakthrough in Negotiations, IMF Withholds Financial Aid to Lebanon

Badly-needed financial aid packages by the International Monetary Fund have been put on hold this week, after negotiations with the Lebanese government officials failed to reach an agreement on terms and conditions regarding helping Lebanon out of its worst chronic economic crisis in decades. IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Friday she does not yet have reason to see a breakthrough in negotiations with Lebanon to help resolve the country’s economic crisis.

An ongoing dispute between Lebanon’s Central Bank and Hassan Diab’s government have further complicated the country’s hope for a quick rescue deal that could potentially bail Lebanon out of utter economic collapse. IMF requires unity among Lebanon’s leaders, stakeholders and society over reforms it deems imperative for the stabilization of economy as well as a return to its growth path. The Lebanese Pound (Lira) has lost over 75% of its value since October 2019. “The core of the issue is whether there can be a unity of purpose in the country that can then carry forward a set of very tough but necessary measures,” Georgieva said. “All I can say is that we are putting our best people to work with Lebanon, but we do not yet have a reason to say there is a breakthrough.” Lebanon’s situation “breaks my heart,” Georgieva added.

Broken Hearts and Empty Pockets

Thousands of Lebanese protesters have again taken to streets across the country as their national currency, the Lira, maintained its steep decline against the dollar, hitting record low in black-market dealings. Before the recent crisis, the Lebanese Lira has preserved its stature against the dollar for over a couple of decades following the end of the civil war in 1990, exchanging for 1,500 Liras against the US dollar. Nowadays, the rate has plummeted to around 6000-7000 Liras per dollar. Lebanon has been going through its worst economic months for decades, with riots and anti-corruption protests ravaging the country which has entered a virtual meltdown.

The spike in coronavirus with over 35 new cases registered on Friday, pose additional burden on the trouble-laden new government headed by reformist Prime Minister Hassan Diab, and threaten its ultimate survivability.  Many of the protesters and road-blockers on Lebanon’s streets are supporters of Diab’s predecessor Saad Hariri who resigned the post under wide-spread popular pressure 8 months ago. In comments published by Al-Jumhuriya Saturday, former Prime Minister Hariri said that Diab’s government was a “corpse waiting for someone to come replace it”.

Could Reopening the Airport and Borders with Syria Salvage Lebanon’s Economy?

Desperate for foreign cash  generated in the past by millions of tourists and expats who used to  flock into the country, once nicknamed “Switzerland of the East” during the busy summer season, Lebanon has announced the partial reopening of Beirut’s Rafik al Hariri International Airport on July 1. The reopening will reportedly happen regardless of the COVID-19 despite the pandemic’s worsening situation. Unconfirmed reports of Lebanon’s intention to reopen its borders with neighboring Syria — its only land lifeline — have been circulating this week. Tens of thousands of Syrian expats stranded worldwide, are also expected to take the Beirut route back home, in view of the aviation restrictions and sanctions imposed on Damascus.

However, given its ongoing political and economic dire straits as well as rising tension among its neighbors, Lebanon seems set for more doom and gloom for some time to come. With no end in sight, the country’s economic nosedive is set to continue with potential catastrophic ramifications on the already collapsing economy. The worst-case scenario is that there will be a new civil, sectarian or ethnic conflict in the country, which would pose a genuine and devastating threat.

L'articolo Lebanon Closer to the Abyss proviene da InsideOver.

Mass protests are once again shaking Lebanon, resuming after rallies ended in October following the installment of a new government. Activists are upset with what they allege is a corrupt government responsible for the state’s tanking economy and are demanding a transitional government and new elections.

Lebanon’s Economy Slips Away

Demonstrations have impacted not only Lebanon, but also World Food Program shipments to Syria. Activists blocked a road which delivery trucks use to pass through with humanitarian aid.

The brutal decline of the Lebanese pound (LBP) against the US dollar has sent the cost of living soaring. On Friday, $1 USD equaled 6,000 LBP, a 300% increase over the past 23 years. Since October, the pound has lost 40% of its value, the National Interest reported, causing trouble in the state that is highly dependent upon imports. 

The World Bank estimates the nation’s poverty rate will be 50% this year, underscoring just how bad the situation has become. After October’s demonstrations, President Michel Aoun’s solution was to sack Prime Minister Saad Hariri, with the government choosing Hassan Diab as his successor.

The Lebanese have given Diab three months now to prove himself, but are not satisfied with the lack of results. Diab now serves as the target for the protesters’ blame. When he took office with the support of a Hezbollah-backed coalition, Diab assured the Lebanese that he would introduce reforms. Those promises have never z.

Lebanon’s situation reminds many of the days leading up to the 1975 civil war, as BBC reported. Unemployment sits at 35% and the state is in default on its national debt, which totals 170% of its GDP.

Diab Blames Opponents

Beirut is in panic mode as it searches for solutions. On Friday, it announced the central bank will pour dollars into the economy this week, Reuters reported. Already, banks have locked people out of dollar accounts and set low withdrawal limits to prevent bank runs.

Diab also implicated unspecified political opponents, saying they are essentially staging a “coup.” 

“The state and the people are being subjected to blackmail,” he said. “Some have tried to exploit the situation again …They have thrown lies and rumors, have contributed to deepening the Lebanese pound crisis, have caused a major crisis and have pushed people onto the streets.”

However it might not be Diab’s political foes, who he refrained from naming, who are blackmailing the economy into failure, but rather Hezbollah. Its top ranks have been filled with self-serving officials who are unwilling to do anything to help the Lebanese economy.

“Hezbollah is a big obstacle in the rescuing of Lebanon and is a big contributor to where we have reached in Lebanon—Hezbollah’s own personal involvement in corruption,” said Professor Habib Malik of the Lebanese American University. “The mere fact that they actually protect and cover up for well-known corrupt individuals and groups, that’s enough to implicate them in the whole corruption thing.”

As long as Hezbollah is calling the shots in Beirut, the people will suffer. It simply does not have their interests at heart and cannot be trusted to make sound economic decisions. After all, this was the group that backed Diab’s appointment as premier and absolutely nothing has materialized from it that would help the economy.

IMF Could Change Corrupt Ways

The EU has helped keep Beirut afloat with 580 million euros since 2011, but that could change soon as the government shows no signs of trying to cure the problem. 

Iran was previously a go-to financier, but it cannot even afford to pay its own proxy militias in Iraq anymore, so Beirut is unlikely to find help from it. The only solid chance Lebanon has is accepting assistance from the International Monetary Fund. 

Previously, Hezbollah rejected help from the group, but this time it has no choice. The IMF has conditions, however, that Beirut crackdown on fraud and corruption, and the government would be accountable to IMF oversight.

The IMF bailout might be the first chance the Lebanese people have at becoming free from Hezbollah’s grip. It won’t be free to abuse its position of power to enrich itself and money might actually go to the right causes.

However, nothing is finalized yet, as talks with the IMF are still taking place. Until Beirut secures funding, protests will continue as the Lebanese run out of options. Their frustrations are understandably high and some have become violent in expressing them.

Few Options 

The question now is not how much further the economy can collapse, but how long Aoun and Diab can maintain their hold on power while the state is consumed by unrest. There are few peaceful solutions at the government’s disposal to placate the people, and fewer still that would lead to economic recovery.

If Diab was dismissed like his predecessor, what would happen next? The corrupt bureaucrats would simply appoint another premier like him.

The only practical solution is for Beirut politicians to end the practice of corruption before it is too late. The IMF may be that way forward as Lebanon is forced to change the way it operates. In truth, that is the only option now for Aoun and Diab before protesters run them out of town.

L'articolo Protests Return to Lebanon as Economy Continues to Crumble proviene da InsideOver.

When a government has lost the faith of its people, what value is the confidence of politicians? In Lebanon, we may soon find out. The embattled administration of Hassan Diab convincingly won a parliamentary vote on its future this week. But as the government fights a rising tide of civil unrest tied to the nation’s deepening financial crisis, the clock is ticking for Lebanon’s beleaguered leader. 

Lebanon’s Ongoing Economic Collapse

Monday’s ballot was the latest twist in the saga of spiraling economic woes and public revolt. Since October—when protesters propelled Diab’s predecessor Saad Hariri from office—anti-government demonstrations have grown ever fiercer. Their grievances are wide-ranging, but a common thread runs through the movement: distrust of a political class deemed incompetent and corrupt.  

In Beirut on Monday, that fury boiled over. As loud chants of “no confidence!” rose up, protesters clashed with security forces near the parliament. Eggs and stones were thrown and tear gas was fired back. In total, 373 people were injured. 

Among them was Salim Saadeh, a lawmaker who ended up in hospital bruised and bloodied. Other politicians running the protest gauntlet—many on the backs of motorcycles—fared better, and most assumed their parliament seats unscathed.      

Economic Reform Plan Passes, but Fury on the Streets Continues

For nine hours politicians debated the government’s proposed economic reform plan. In the end, the vote wasn’t even close: 63 in favor, 20 against. It was a resounding win for Diab, but on the streets outside, there was little let up in the fury. 

“People are suffering and the government is not listening, said Lama Tabbara, 34, an unemployed protester speaking with Reuters. “It takes a long time to uproot an old rotten tree and that’s what the government represents.”

Her anger is justified. Lebanon’s financial crisis is the worst in a generation. The Middle Eastern state’s debt ratio stands at 150% of GDP, one of the highest in the world. The economy is shrinking fast too, and unemployment is perhaps as high as 40%.

Protesters Light Lebanese Bank on Fire

In a scene emblematic of the meltdown, a bank in downtown Beirut was set ablaze by rioters. It, like other financial institutions, had restricted customers’ access to money and blocked transfers abroad.    

“Painful” measures are required to avoid complete catastrophe, Diab told lawmakers. His plan involves reforming the judicial, economic, and administrative sectors, as well as fighting corruption and fixing the country’s finances. 

Diab’s Dilemma

With parliament’s blessing, Diab can now push ahead. But support was won only with the backing of Hezbollah—a party with strong ties to Islamist militancy—and its allies. Regarded by many on the world stage as a terror group, this poses a real problem for Diab. 

Diab desperately needs the $11 billion aid package promised by the international community, which is contingent on his implementing of economic reform. But in pursuing the requisite changes, he risks bringing a widely-distrusted organization—particularly in the West—too close for comfort.

Ultimately, though, Lebanon’s fate—and that of its prime minister—is neither in the hands of Hezbollah nor in the hands of foreign forces. Fully mobilized, well organised, and—crucially—crossing sectarian lines, protesters now hold the balance of power. If Diab fails he will have to reckon with them.

L'articolo Lebanon Reform Plans Get Green Light – But Public Anger Still Growing proviene da InsideOver.

What does one do when the government fails to take into account the plight of its citizens? Stay silent or protest and wait for things to change on their own? That’s exactly what the Lebanese have had to go through in their fight against the corrupt government. For months, Lebanese protesters have taken to streets across the country to ask the ruling elite to step down and install a government which will safeguard the rights of citizens. Protesting across the country didn’t come without a cost either.

Understanding Lebanon’s Unrest

The dynamics of Lebanon are key in understanding this complicated affair. The problems have grown dramatically over the years. The protests which started at the end of 2019 stemmed primarily from the inefficiency of the government. Widespread corruption, overlooking the smallest of problems and paying no heed to satisfying the demands of citizens. It was widely perceived as time to rise and fight for rights that had long been denied.

Lebanon’s “October Revolution” began when a group of protesters gathered in capital Beirut’s Riad al-Solh square. What authorities didn’t know was the fact that this group would multiply into thousands and spread across the country. The protests started on October 17 and by October 29 Prime Minister Saad Hariri was ousted from office. One stark difference in these protests was the fact that regardless of gender or sect, the Lebanese remained united. Christians hand in hand with Muslim Shiites and Sunnis. There were no sectarian or religious differences as the protesters all wanted to fight against a power which for years had mercilessly run the Mediterranean country.

Why Did Protests Start?

The protests began after the government decided to impose a regressive tax on the messaging application WhatsApp. This came at a time when a currency crisis was looming and the ability to use regular mobile service was increasingly becoming difficult due to expensive charges implemented by the government. The tax on WhatsApp was the final nail in the coffin which spurred a renewed determination to take down the government. It may be hard to believe, but a messaging application was at the center of these protests. However, the anger had been on the rise for years. Lebanon is a country where for the past 4 to 5 years, the government has been unable to provide basic utilities like water and electricity. The country also faces hours of load shedding on a daily basis. The currency along with the banking sector has collapsed and a financial crisis is now underway.

Lebanon Today: Can Hassan Diab Turn Things Around?

Fast-forward to present-day Lebanon: Hassan Diab is at the helm of a new government. Diab is a technocrat and an academic. The country’s drastic religious differences have always played a role in politics, with Hezbollah involved. The new government under Diab is one which might not be well-acquainted with politics considering the Prime Minister’s lack of political experience. However, the point Diab is making points towards having less cabinet members and Lebanon’s cabinet has now dropped from 30 to 20.

Furthermore, in this new government, we can also see the appointment of the country’s first female deputy Prime Minister and the Arab world’s first Defense Minister in Zeina Adra. Diab calls his style “technocratic” which could well point towards change in a country where we can see six women in the cabinet—again a historical first for Lebanon. The reason as to why I believe this government could bring significant changes for the country is due to the fact that cabinet members are mostly economists, medical experts and academics. This was a key demand of protesters who said they wanted people who wouldn’t be affiliated with patriarchal, well-established political parties which forced them to suffer severe financial, economic and social strains.

Diab Is Open To Dialog

Hassan Diab has also opened a dialog with the main political parties such as the Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Christian Lebanese Force. The reason why many ordinary Lebanese people believe that Diab is a good choice is because he has outlined his government’s plans in accordance with the demands of the popular protests. Key points on his agenda in accordance with their demands include combating corruption which has brought Lebanon immense financial strain, the creation of an independent judiciary where legal cases take less time to be resolved and unemployment. Other actions Diab has intended to take include the improvement of the electoral law and the recovery of public funds which the previous governments used to satisfy their personal interests.

EU-Lebanese Relations

When we turn our attention to the European Union and its efforts for Lebanon, we can see that it still has a huge role to play. Firstly, the European Union should prioritize the situation of Syrian refugees living in the country. One can only imagine the hardship they have to suffer as normal citizens take to streets to protest. They are the ones that are being hit the hardest. Shelter, food and basic human rights should be granted to them as soon as possible. The European Union should immediately lend help to those in need through additional finances and resources. The Lebanese government is already bearing the brunt of a collapsed financial system and it may not be able to provide what refugees need. The European Union could be of critical importance in this aspect.

Secondly, the European Union should move forward in mending relations between the divided political parties who have different agendas in Lebanon. It should continuously monitor the situation and mediate between parties so that everyone is on the same page. Thirdly, the EU should present a framework which would not only make the activities of the new government more transparent and will also allow the development of change in the aftermath of recovering from a corrupt system of governance. At this point in time, I believe that immediate action would also help alleviate ongoing problems which would directly impact the bloc itself.

The European Union should also help Lebanon on the economic front. Economic development is the need of the hour. Healthcare supplies have also dwindled due to the poor healthcare infrastructure. Sanitation and waste management stands at its worst and the country’s overall ailing infrastructure also needs to be modernized in order to bring the peace and growth that it requires. The European Union as a body which highlights the necessity of humanitarian and economic reforms should take these steps swiftly in order to help the Diab government achieve the dream of restoring Lebanon to its former glory.

L'articolo Will Hassan Diab’s Government Restore Lebanon To Its Former Glory? proviene da InsideOver.