In a devastating blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership, Likud Member of the Knesset (MK) Gideon Sa’ar — long seen as the Prime Minister’s nemesis in the Likud Party — announced he was quitting the party and will form his own right-wing party. Sa’ar’s new party will be called New Hope and he will run under its banner for the premiership in the next election, which looks likely to come soon.

The former leading Likud minister said his party had become a “tool for the personal interests of the person in charge, including matters relating to his criminal trial,” and has fostered a “cult of personality” around Netanyahu.

Sa’ar will also be resigning his Knesset seat because he felt it was right for him to step down as he was elected to parliament for Likud.

Sa’ar: ‘Replacing Netanyahu is the Order of the Hour’

Sa’ar, who failed in a leadership challenge against the current Prime Minister last year, said the current coalition had wasted its parliamentary support, and failed in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Replacing Netanyahu is the order of the hour,” he declared, adding that the dangers of overly protracted leadership create a moral hazard.

There are many reasons why Netanyahu should be worried about Sa’ar’s leadership bid. Israel elects its governments using proportional representation, which means that the number of seats a party receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of votes it wins.

Sa’ar Could Pose a Direct Challenge to Netanyahu

On their own, New Hope might not receive a lot of votes, but Sa’ar’s new party will aim to join forces with other existing political factions before the next election. Derech Eretz MKs Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — who quit the Blue and White list when they joined the Netanyahu-led government in May — may also join New Hope.

Israel looks likely to be heading towards its fourth election in two years. Last Wednesday, the Knesset gave initial approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament amid a budget crisis and call a new vote.

Though the polls currently suggest Likud would be the largest party after a fourth election, Sa’ar could split the vote for Netanyahu. The Prime Minister is fighting back against Naftali Bennett’s Yamina, which is the official opposition party. Bennett has made significant gains in recent polls and he also poses a challenge to Netanyahu.

Has Netanyahu’s Luck Run Out?

Despite this, Israelis have little faith in either Netanyahu or his Blue and White counterpart Benny Gantz. The Israel Voice Index survey shows that 62 percent of Israelis view the Prime Minister as having very low or moderately low credibility, while 60 percent say the same for the Defense Minister. These low levels of support for both figures will affect how both of their parties perform during a fourth election, especially when Bennett’s credibility is rising in some polls.

Many political analysts told The Times of Israel that the current Likud-Blue and White coalition might incline more toward a compromise in the light of the electoral threat posed by Sa’ar’s party. If both parties do this, it is unclear what impact this will have on the state budget, which is due to be rejected on December 23. Once it is rejected, an election would automatically be called for March 23. Either way, both Gantz and Netanyahu realize that Sa’ar poses a threat to their coalition.

Netanyahu has been fortunate enough to win the last three elections over the last two years. Until now, he has also been the favorite to win a fourth election. The Prime Minister has survived many different scenarios over the last two years and with Sa’ar now leading his own party, maybe Netanyahu’s luck is about to run out, but that may not be a bad thing given how much his credibility has been damaged recently.

L'articolo What Impact Will Israel’s New Right-Wing Party Have on Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to seek parliamentary immunity from prosecution over corruption charges. Until fresh elections have been held in March, a trial will likely be delayed. This will be the third election Netanyahu faces in one year.

Why Was Netanyahu Charged?

Netanyahu is alleged by prosecutors to have accepted presents from wealthy businessmen and alleged favors to try and generate more positive press coverage. Because of these criminal indictments, on December 12, Netanyahu announced that he would drop all portfolios from his cabinet on January 1st other than his role of Prime Minister. Beside being Prime Minister, Netanyahu has served as Israel’s Social Welfare Minister, Diaspora Affairs Minister, and acting Agricultural Minister. Until Sunday, he was also Israel’s Health Minister.

Pros And Cons For Netanyahu

The Prime Minister has one factor going in his favor: a trial cannot commence once an immunity request is made and the Israeli parliament the Knesset – which has been dissolved because of fresh elections—is unlikely to rule on the request before then. Any Israeli prime minister must resign if they are convicted.

The cons of Netanyahu’s decision far outweigh the advantages. Elections held in April and September 2019 witnessed the Prime Minister’s Likud Party deadlocked with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party. They both gained 32 and 33 seats, respectively.

The Prime Minister’s impeachment charges were the biggest obstacle to coalition negotiations, despite his protests that he is innocent. Until Netanyahu faces trial for the crimes he has been accused of, it will remain almost impossible for him to form a functioning government, regardless of the result of March’s election.

His opponents have already made it clear that they will not vote to retain his position and they have reacted angrily to Netanyahu’s decision to call fresh elections. Both Gantz and Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, have said they will vote against the Prime Minister’s immunity request.

Forced Compromise

Furthermore, the Israeli electoral system is designed to prevent a single party from gaining a working majority. Based on proportional representation, its intention is to ensure that smaller parties can influence the will of the ruling party, and trigger the dissolution of a newly elected parliament if necessary. Therefore, it does not matter whether Netanyahu increases the number of seats Likud currently hold, without being able to form a coalition, they will not be able to achieve anything until they compromise with their opponents.

Last month, Netanyahu defeated former aide and Cabinet minister Gideon Sa’ar in a Likud primary, winning 72 percent of the vote. Although he has succeeded in unifying the party’s base, he may find the next election a struggle. Polls indicate the March vote will produce a similar outcome to September’s, which will lead to another year of deadlock. The Christian Science Monitor’s Joseph Krauss referred to Netanyahu as a “political magician” who could transform this situation into an opportunity. His stance on the 2015 Iran Deal is popular with voters, but his political fortunes have waned and it is difficult to argue March will be any different for him.

Also, Sa’ar is unlikely to go anywhere. Polls show that 50 percent of Israelis believe that Netanyahu should resign and if he fails to increase Likud’s share of the vote in March, this will increase the pressure on him to step aside. Although the Likud’s structure demands complete loyalty from its members which prevents leaders from being ousted in a coup, the fall of Netanyahu and Sa’ar’s links to the Blue and White Party could be two factors that go in the latter’s favor, and could help create a functioning government.

The Prime Minister has bought himself short-term immunity, but this is the only factor in his favor when it comes to holding another election. His decision carries far more risks and if he fails to win a majority, he will find an unsympathetic Knesset will vote to impeach him. Likud’s luck could be running out.

L'articolo Why a March Election is Risky for Benjamin Netanyahu proviene da InsideOver.

For fourteen years, Benjamin Netanyahu has led Israel’s conservative Likud party. Now, however, he faces a real challenger in Gideon Sa’ar, who could redefine Israel’s position in the Middle East.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the longest-serving leaders in the region who has, so far, defeated all opponents who have failed to form a government against him despite decreasing popularity.

His reign could come to an end, however, due to an internal leadership vote that will be held today. Back in October, Netanyahu announced that he sought to hold an internal leadership election, not anticipating he could be challenged for his position.

However, Gideon Sa’ar accepted the challenge, which led Netanyahu to cancel the election subsequently. It is reasonable to assume that Netanyahu was cognizant of a scenario that would have had him lose to Gideon. Two months later, Netanyahu will no longer be able to avoid the conflict with Sa’ar.

After two parliamentary elections within a year, after which Netanyahu failed to form a government twice in a row, Likud is holding a leadership election today, December 26. However, who is Gideon Sa’ar, the man who could end Netanyahu’s tenure? Furthermore, what are the implications for Israel?

First and foremost, the 52-year-old former Minister of the Interior and Education is a relatively unknown quantity on the international, less politically affine, stage. Unlike the astute and rhetorically gifted Netanyahu, who not only grew up in the US but studied at US universities, and obtained university degrees, Sa’ar has had little opportunities to present himself to the international media.

Nonetheless, Sa’ar has earned himself a reputation among astute observers and is a highly popular politician in Israel. In the Likud, Sa’ar has twice been the runner up to Netanyahu, who has had the bonus of being the country’s Prime Minister, in the past few years.

Moreover, Sa’ar is also popular outside the party: According to a recent survey, 33 percent of Israelis would like Sa’ar to become Netanyahu’s successor. A remarkable result, considering other candidates reach a maximum of seven percent in the same surveys. His popularity has surged so drastically that even media that is considered to be left-leaning cheer Sa’ar’s candidacy.

The latter is particularly surprising because, on several issues, Sa’ar has taken stances that are further to the right than Netanyahu’s. As a teenager, Sa’ar was already politically involved in the nationalist Techija movement, which opposed and protested the evacuation of Israeli settlements in Sinai as part of the peace treaty with Egypt.

Moreover, Sa’ar has described the two-state solution as a “non-helpful illusion” and continues to support annexation of the West Bank, while he promises the Palestinians at most limited Palestinian autonomy in a federation with Jordan.

Sa’ar has also positioned himself to the right of Netanyahu in domestic debates. He ordered the Minister of the Interior to close shops in Tel Aviv on the holy weekday Sabbath – as an expression of his ostentatious return to the Jewish faith, which is manifested in compliance with Jewish eating regulations and an intensive study of the scriptures. This adherence to principles explains its appeal to traditional right-wing voters.

His main advantage, however, seems to be his character, which even political opponents unanimously describe him as “extremely decent.” While Netanyahu has been accused of corruption in three cases and has had his fair share of somewhat controversial takes on Israel judiciary, the police, or the media, Sa’ar stands out for his moderate manner of expression and strong support for the Israeli rule of law.

However, for Sa’ar to utilize all the praise about his persona for political power, he will have to win the vote. He already took the first step when he emphasized that he can be the man who cannot only lead Likud but built bridges that can gap the rift within Israeli parliament.  A rift Netanyahu has evidentially failed to gap after two failed attempts to form a coalition because the opposition categorically rejects him.

So far, four Likud members of the Knesset have endorsed Sa’ar. Nonetheless, Netanyahu continues to command widespread support within Likud. However, Netanyahu appears to be concerned about the outcome tonight, which is the most reliable indication that Sa’ar has more than an outsider’s chance to overtake the party and potentially reshape Israel’s role in the region.

L'articolo Gideon Sa’ar, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Internal Antagonist proviene da InsideOver.

The situation facing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is looking increasingly desperate. He is being challenged from within his own Likud Party by a Member of the Knesset (MK) called Gideon Sa’ar. He has warned the Prime Minister that he has no chance of forming a government and that Netanyahu would lose a third election, which is more than likely to happen in March 2020 now. This has left him with no choice but to concede to a leadership election if a third poll happens.

David Shimron, the Prime Minister’s cousin, has already been indicted for corruption in relation to a contentious £1.5 billion deal to buy German submarines. Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself is being investigated for bribery, fraud and breach of trust by Avichai Mandelblit, Israel’s Attorney General.

Both the Prime Minister and Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White Party, failed to form a coalition government before Wednesday’s deadline. The Blue and White leader called on Netanyahu to ‘serve as an example’ by resigning his post and allowing his immunity to public prosecution be removed. However, one institutional body may find itself having to resolve this crisis: Israel’s High Court.

Many hi-tech businessmen started a new petition running in parallel to the one already filed by the Movement for the Quality of Government in Israel to the High Court and an anticipated future petition by the Labor Party.

Although Mandelblit is protecting the Prime Minister by analysing whether he can form a new government whilst being indicted for bribery, he has ruled that the issue can be ‘kicked down the road’ because it is only theoretical.

But many of these businessmen argue that the situation is concrete, and not theoretical because electors should know whether Netanyahu has the legal means to form a government before they vote. Some of these officials include Dr Orna Bari, Shai Weininger and Pinhas Buchris. They are being represented by Daphna Holech-Lechner, who has been involved in other substantial High Court cases.

Fortunately for these hi-tech giants, the High Court’s powers have not been curbed yet and it is an effective means to maintain the balance of power in Israel. It is only fair that the judiciary should be allowed to intervene in this case. Earlier this year, Netanyahu wanted to introduce a bill to prevent the court from interfering in his decision to stop Palestinians from participating in a joint Memorial Day ceremony.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the High Court defended Israeli citizens from successive governments clamping down on their right to freedom of speech and freedom to demonstrate. They also reduced military censorship and limited the use of certain military methods. Therefore, Israel’s judiciary guards citizens against excessive political power.

The judiciary is the only independent branch of government that can ensure Netanyahu is proved guilty or innocent in his impeachment inquiry. The Prime Minister’s bill would also mean that he would have had permanent immunity from corruption charges, even though there is a strong chance that he is guilty. This would have destroyed the High Court.

It is also one of the few institutions left in Israel that is trusted among its population. According to a 2017 poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, the majority of Jewish (57 per cent) and Arab (54 per cent) Israelis believe in the High Court. If it was prevented from intervening in the Netanyahu case and he was found guilty of all his charges, this would damage Israelis’ trust in their political system.

The High Court should intervene in the Prime Minister’s impeachment inquiry. As Netanyahu’s bill to reduce the judiciary’s role in the Israeli constitution did not pass, nothing is preventing them from doing so. For the sake of transparency and fairness in Israeli democracy, the hi-tech officials’ petition should be approved.

L'articolo Should Israel’s High Court Intervene Over the Netanyahu Case? proviene da InsideOver.