Recent developments in Libya are setting the ground for a renewed cycle of violence. While both sides are gradually fueling the tension, UN and international concerns are focused on the potential failure of the ongoing peace process.

Haftar Reacts Angrily to Turkey’s Libya Troop Extension

On the day marking the 69th anniversary of Libyan Independence, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar stated that as long as Turkish Forces remain stationed in Libya, there will be no peace in the country. As predicted, Turkey’s Grand National Assembly recently approved a bill extending deployment of Turkish troops in Libya for another 18 months.

In his inflammatory remarks, Haftar stated that Ankara should withdraw its forces, otherwise the “Libyan people would by force drive out the colonizing force.” With these words, the Benghazi-based Libyan strongman indirectly passed an ultimatum to Turkey at a point where there is no chance that Ankara would back down. This highlights the fragility of the ongoing peace process.

Turkey Responds to Haftar’s Demand

Shortly after Haftar’s speech on Dec. 26 there has was a straightforward Turkish response. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar landed in Tripoli accompanied by Turkey’s military leadership in an unscheduled visit to inspect the Turkish Forces based in the country. It was clear that at the same time Akar’s visit was intended to send a message to Haftar, emphasizing that Ankara is ready and committed to fully support Fayez al-Serraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA).

Prior to Akar’s visit, his Libyan counterpart Minister Salahaddin al-Namroush stated in a televised interview that the UN-recognized Tripoli GNA government would not let Haftar carry out another major offensive to capture the Libyan capital. He also said that the Libyan Army, under GNA command, has been following and respecting the ceasefire terms, however the armed forces would be standing by to effectively respond to any provocations from the Haftar-led LNA.

Even earlier, during an interview on Dec. 11, al-Namroush was even more critical of Haftar, calling the General a war criminal and ruling out any possibility of forming a political coalition where Haftar could play any role at all. Considering that al-Namroush will remain one of the key GNA players and his footprint -in both the political and military aspects of the process — is significant, we could assess that a new escalation between the two sides could be likely. Therefore it is understandable that while Haftar remains in the equation, some GNA key officials could hardly negotiate to reach a consensus; in this respect a realistic precondition for the successful completion of the peace process would be the withdrawal of either party, which is not expected to be easy or uneventful.

We should note that the completion of the process could be the successful organization and implementation of the Libyan elections, scheduled for December 2021.

What is UNSMIL Doing to End the Libyan Conflict?

While the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has publicly congratulated the Libyan people in several instances, the in-country situation still remains far from optimistic. The recent exchange of prisoners between the opposing sides and the successful organizing of municipal elections in Al-Zawiya Al-Gharbia and Ar-Rajban areas in the northwestern parts of the country, are definitely positive signs.

However, the current transitioning period of the mission, will be critical for the next steps on the process. The experienced diplomat Nickolay Mladenov — who was expected to succeed Ghassan Salamé as the Head of UNSMIL — recently turned down the position due to personal and family reasons. Mladenov has previously held key roles in the UN Mission in Iraq and in the Middle East Peace Process; additionally his appointment was expected to be welcomed by Turkey as the Bulgarian diplomat built strong ties with Turkey, while serving as the Foreign Minister of Bulgaria several years ago.

For the moment, Stephanie Williams will remain the Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL, until a new decision is reached for the permanent placement of the Head of the Mission.

Many Challenges Lie Ahead

Despite the positive signs, mainly derived from the exchange of prisoners, there are many challenges ahead, with one of the most prominent threats being related to the oil industry of the country. The LNA’s recent raid in Awbari (or Ubari) underscores this reality. UNSMIL has also strongly condemned the efforts of armed groups to intimidate the National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli. With oil exports being one of the main sources of revenue for the Libyan economy, any disruption in this sector could trigger hostilities and further destabilize the country.

Occasional skirmishes during December also indicate that the ceasefire agreement is not being fully adhered to, and an incidental unfortunate event could easily lead to another vicious cycle of violence. Finally, the harsh rhetoric and the military build-up from both sides is another worrying sign.

Turkey’s overt action and deep involvement in Libya — not only through the deployment of military forces but also through a direct intervention in the shaping of the political context — is also a critical destabilizing factor. The most telling example of this political involvement was the recent surprise resignation of al-Serraj — which rather disappointed Ankara — only to be revoked shortly after its announcement.

L'articolo Haftar Demands That Turks Leave Libya proviene da InsideOver.

According to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is working to make peace in Libya a reality in the near future.

Specifically, Conte extended an offer from the head of the country’s presidential council Fayez Al-Sarraj, to field marshal the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), General Khalifa Haftar. The offer asks Haftar to nominate a new prime minister for the national government as part of a political solution.

Italian diplomatic sources were quoted as saying that allowing Haftar to nominate a new leader has “a thousand flaws” as he could nominate someone who may be very good at the job, or he may choose someone weak enough to allow militia leaders to manipulate him.

Al-Serraj previously announced his willingness to resign his position when there is a new head of the council, but due to the failure to reach a consensus on who his replacement should be, he was forced to withdraw his resignation and continue his role.

Enabling Haftar’s Control Over Libya’s Government Has Big Risks

La Repubblica is right to argue that enabling the LNA chief to decide who should become the next Libyan prime minister carries many risks. He may well choose a leader who he can easily manipulate, but as Aidan Lewis wrote for Reuters, he holds significant sway over the Libyan peace process regardless. 

Haftar may have suffered some significant setbacks this year such as his troops being driven out of western Libya, and his failure to take control of Tripoli, but over the last six years he has built up a massive security apparatus in eastern Libya.

The blockade that the LNA general imposed on Libya earlier this year led to the closure of the main eastern oil terminals. Haftar then allowed oil to flow again in September, which demonstrates that he still has relevance left.

Haftar Still Enjoys Significant Support from Russia

Furthermore, it has been reported that the LNA can still depend upon support from France, the UAE and Russia. Moscow has recently been accused of using a Syrian airline to send mercenaries to Haftar, alongside Paris and Abu Dhabi. This has led to accusations by Dr Guma el Gamaty, a special envoy to Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) to Northwest Africa, that such a move adds strength to Haftar’s forces. With the support of three important nations, it is impossible to ignore the LNA.

Moscow is particularly anxious to not let the Turkish-backed GNA control the strategic city of Sirte, which remains under Haftar’s influence, as it could provide Russia with a gateway to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast. The Russian Government will continue to support Haftar so long as he can help the Russians advance their interests in Libya. This makes a permanent ceasefire even more complicated.

Peace is Better Than More War

Recent events have proven how difficult it is to end the Libyan conflict. Earlier this month, Libyan Defense Minister Salahaddin Namroush threatened to withdraw from a ceasefire agreement in his country because of Haftar’s actions. He called on the UN and peace-supporting nations to curb the LNA general following his attack on the southern town of Awbari, 964 kilometers south of Tripoli. Libya’s High Council of State decried it as a new violation of the ceasefire by the eastern warlord. In many ways, peace  nowdepends upon the LNA chief ending military action altogether.

Western influence has only made the Libyan war worse. For example, the 2018 Paris summit failed to consult the Libyan people or make significant progress on bringing together the war-torn nation.

But this time, Conte may be right to argue that Haftar should be provided with the opportunity to determine who becomes Libya’s next prime minister. He may select someone who is an utter disaster for the war-torn country, yet this could still be a better solution for the Libyan people than continuous fighting.

L'articolo Why Haftar’s Support is Crucial for the Libyan Peace Process proviene da InsideOver.

In a new blow to Turkey’s power in Libya, the interior minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) Fathi Bashagha has imposed a travel ban on Libyan Central Bank Governor Sadik Al-Kabir.

Why Did the GNA Crack Down on the Central Bank Governor?

In a strongly-worded statement, the GNA Interior Ministry said all Libyan officials will be subject to the new travel restrictions without mentioning al-Kabir by name. However the ban came shortly after the bank governor filed a complaint with the Attorney-General’s office about having been prevented from travelling outside the country, making the linkage clear.

The rift between the two allies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan surfaced against the backdrop of accusations that al-Kabir of squandering billions of dollars.

The Government Believes al-Kabir and his Associates are Corrupt

Last week, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement that it would not transfer money crude oil sales to the central bank until it shows a “clear transparency” about how it spends money.

The NOC cited that the central bank reported $1.77 billion in oil revenues in the first 10 months of the year, although the corporation’s estimates showed that it had deposited more than twice that amount of revenues — $3.7 billion — at the central bank during this period.

NOC President Mustafa Sanalla suggested that some officials in Tripoli were involved in wasting millions of dollars, accusing al-Kabir of benefitting from exchanging dollar at different rates. Sanalla explained that the bank governor exchanged the dollar for 1.40 Libyan dinars for some people, before reselling it at prices ranging between 6 and 10 dinars.

Interior Minister: ‘Corruption is a Scourge’

In a tweet, Bashagha vowed to take action against officials involved in corruption and money-laundering. “Corruption is a scourge that threatens every country’s present & future. We are dedicated in MoI to fight against corruption, trace money-laundering offences & determined to prosecute all who are involved in these crimes no matter who was it,” he tweeted.

The rift between Bashagha and al-Kabir comes as a bad news for Turkey, the only foreign backer of the Tripoli-based government. The two men are strong supporters of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in favor of the GNA against the Libyan National Army of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar.

Signs of a split between Turkey and Bashagha have emerged in recent weeks after the Libyan interior minister visited Ankara’s main rival Egypt and France, a move that angered the Erdogan administration.

Last month, Bashagha held talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo, in a visit seen as an attempt by Tripoli to reassure Egypt about the GNA amid UN-sponsored talks for reaching a peace deal between Libya’s warring rivals.

Intervention Threat

In June, Egypt threatened to militarily intervene in Libya if Turkey-backed Libyan forces continued to advance on the oil-rich city of Sirte. The threat has helped to pacify the situation on the ground.

After his talks in Egypt, Bashagha travelled to France where he held talks on mutual security cooperation between Tripoli and Paris. The Libyan minister described his talks in Paris as “fruitful”.

Watching its close ally courting its regional rivals in Libya, Erdogan, who invested billions of dollars to gain a foothold in the oil-rich country, voiced resentment at Bashagha’s moves.

According to sources cited by the London-based Al-Quds Al-Araby newspaper, Erdogan said during a meeting with Libyan officials that Bashagha’s talks in Egypt and France served efforts by both Cairo and Paris to exclude Turkey from any deal in Libya. Both Egypt and France, along with the UAE, are major backers of General Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA) in eastern Libya.

Bashagha’s rapprochement with Egypt and France is seen as part of his bid to replace Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj as leader of the GNA. Al-Sarraj has announced his intention to resign by October, before he rescinded his decision under Turkish pressure.

The Importance of Libya for Turkey

Turkey has been counting on Libya to give a much-needed boost to its ailing economy and ease the country’s growing economic woes. The Turkish government has been battling with double-digit inflation, high unemployment and weak Turkish lira, which fell to its lowest level against the dollar during the coronavirus pandemic.

Turkey has sought the help of its foreign allies, including Libya and Qatar, to boost its fast-depleting foreign reserves. According to the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television channel, al-Kabir, the central bank governor, has deposited $8 billion in the Central Bank of Turkey for about four years without interest to help stabilize the Turkish lira.

The Qatari government has signed last month investment deals worth billions of dollars, including buying a big chunk of shares in the Borsa Istanbul stock exchange, in a move aimed to boost the Turkish economy.

Turkey Wants a Key Stake in Libya’s Reconstruction

Turkey is also looking for taking a big share of Libya’s reconstruction operations in any future deal between the country’s warring rivals. Murtaza Karanfil, the chairman of the Turkey-Libya Council of Foreign Economic Relations (DEIK), said in May that Turkish investors eye $120 billion investments in Libya.

Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih Domnez also told the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency that Ankara — which is looking to lower its energy imports — is evaluating opportunities to cooperate with Libya on oil and natural gas exploration. According to Donmez, Turkey’s energy imports cost $40 billion annually, which is inflating its current account deficit.

Therefore, news of a rift between its main allies in Libya comes as a deadly blow to Erdogan’s efforts to rejuvenate the Turkish economy. It also plays into the hands of Ankara’s rivals and their hopes of ending Turkish influence in the North African nation.

L'articolo Travel Ban on Governor of Libya’s Central Bank Deals New Blow to Turkey proviene da InsideOver.

Nine months ago, Germany hosted the first Libya Conference in Berlin. On Monday, October 5, it was time to assess how to advance stability further in the war-torn North African nation. However, although a ceasefire is currently in place, various actors are continuing to pursue their interests in the Libyan conflict and standing in the way of progress.

Libya’s War-Torn Reality

The people of Libya long for a better future. Their country has degenerated into a hell, used as a pawn by international actors. Crime is rising. The economy is in ruins, and jobs are scarce. It is no surprise that the people of Tripoli have been protesting against the government, against mismanagement, and the infrastructure’s deterioration for weeks. The fact that two protesters were recently shot dead by government security forces only fueled their anger.

After nearly a decade of war and chaos, Libyans long for peace, security, and economic prosperity. The previous month provided some hope. Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA) Fayez al-Sarraj announced his resignation at the end of the month. His power was crumbling, and thus the resignation is not necessarily entirely voluntary. Moreover, Sarraj fell out with his interior minister and felt pressure from armed groups within Tripoli.

Even Sarraj’s recent military successes did not help. With the help of Turkey, he was able to stop the offensive of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and its leader Khalifa Haftar who were advancing on the capital. Sarraj even forced Haftar’s troops into retreat. As a result, Sarraj can now control the flow of refugees to Europe – powerful leverage, as his supporter Erdogan knows.

Showdown in Sirte

Hafter, on the other hand, has maintained control over the rich oil reserves in the east. The two camps now face each other on the front-line town of Sirte. Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt support Haftar as their interest lies – among other things – in Libya’s gas and oil.

However, fighting Islamic militias is another important reason for them. Hence, Russia and the Emirates have sent military equipment and mercenaries into the region despite the arms embargo.

Despite all the saber-rattling on both sides, and the staggering amount of weapons and mercenaries sent to Libya, no one is interested in an escalation, let alone a protracted proxy war with Turkey on Libyan soil. It is one of the reasons why a window opened for diplomacy in August when both sides, although Haftar only agreed to a ceasefire and negotiations under strong international pressure.

The Battle for Power and Money

Since then, envoys from both warring parties have been looking for compromise lines in Morocco and Egypt through mediation. It is a tough battle for power and money. After months of blockade, Haftar has now resumed oil production. Both sides should benefit from it. An exchange of prisoners is also on the agenda, as is the formation of a unity government and, in the end, elections.

Numerous questions remain, however, particularly regarding the military on both sides. Who will be in charge of the Libyan army? How will the military units of the West and the East be integrated? Will they play a similar role as the armed militias are currently playing within the security apparatus? These are tough questions, and the potential process will need to find answers for them.

Aiming for a Diplomatic Solution

Nonetheless, the negotiating climate at the recent meeting was described as constructive. Representatives from 16 states and international organizations seek to take ownership of the situation starting on October 5 at an international conference.  This comes almost nine months after the Berlin Libya Conference, at which the participants could only agree on soft summit resolutions.

All actors involved are cognizant that a political solution’s chances of success are significantly better than a military solution. A quick breakthrough is nonetheless unlikely. The conflict is too complicated, the interests too conflicting, the mistrust too great. However, the chances of a peaceful settlement in the crisis-ridden country have never been as great, for better or worse.

L'articolo The Quest for Stability in Libya proviene da InsideOver.

Military and police teams from Libya’s warring rivals held UN-brokered security talks in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Hurghada this week. The talks came amid international pressure on the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar and their regional backers to avert an attack on the oil-rich city of Sirte.

What Did the Two Sides Agree On?

The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said a host of recommendations have been reached during the discussions to be presented to UN-brokered military talks in Geneva next week. This includes the release of all prisoners captured during military operations before the end of October and a halt of all hate speech campaigns.

The two sides also agreed to expedite the re-opening of air traffic and land transportation lines across all Libyan cities to ensure freedom of movement for all citizens. The talks also tackled the tasks and responsibilities of the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) in order to ensure uninterrupted oil production. UNSMIL said the two Libyan sides have demonstrated “a positive and proactive attitude aimed at de-escalation of the situation in central Libya.”

Efforts to Counteract Turkey’s Increased Intervention in Libya

The Hurghada talks were part of international efforts to reduce Turkey’s increasing military intervention in the Libyan conflict, which has irked several regional players, including Libya’s next-door neighbor Egypt.

“The Libyans reject Turkey’s blatant interference in the Libyan affairs and we are looking for solutions to unify the Libyan military establishment,” Major-General Khaled Mahjoub, the head of LNA mobilization department, said. “There is an agreement to disarm the militias and maintain the weapons in the hands of the Libyan army only,” he said.

The Pentagon estimates that Turkey has sent at least 5,000 Syrian mercenaries to Libya to fight on the side of the GNA. However, according to Mahjoub, Turkey-backed foreign mercenaries have already begun to leave Libya. “Around 3,000 mercenaries have left the country recently,” he said.

Libya’s Civil War

Libya plunged into civil war in 2011 after a NATO-backed uprising led to the ouster and subsequent killing of strongman Muammar Gaddafi, with two rival administrations emerging in Tripoli and the eastern city of Tobruk.

The situation escalated last year when Turkey signed controversial maritime and security agreements with the GNA, in response to a military offensive launched by Haftar on the capital Tripoli. The Turkish military support to the GNA helped it tip the balance of war in its favor, forcing Haftar’s LNA to retreat to Sirte.

The Turkish military intervention, however, has prompted Egypt to threaten to militarily intervene in the Libyan conflict. The Egyptian threat has forced the Turkey-backed GNA forces to halt their advance towards Sirte amid a military build-up on the frontlines.

As a result of the threat, intensive diplomatic efforts began to intensify in an attempt to avert an escalation of the military situation on the ground and push the warring rivals to reach a political settlement to their conflict. These efforts resulted in mutual ceasefire announcements by GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and Speaker of the Tobruk-based Parliament Aguila Saleh.

The Bouznika Talks

As the situation on the ground remained precarious, delegations from the two rival administrations held UN-brokered talks in the Moroccan city of Bouznika to explore ways of de-escalating the situation and reaching a roadmap for elections. The two rivals plan to start a second round of the talks this week.

In a move that helped to ease tension, Haftar announced on Sept. 18 the resumption of oil production and exports on condition that the revenues are fairly distributed among the three Libyan regions and not used with the aim of funding militias or in operations marred by corruption.

An agreement was also concluded with the GNA to form a committee tasked with overseeing the distribution of oil revenues and their proper use until the end of the current year, as well as to unify the exchange rate, open lines of credits in banks and carry out bank clearing operations away from any kind of discrimination.

Egypt’s Perspective

The Egyptian government, which backs Haftar, also invited the strongman and his ally Saleh to Cairo in a move aimed to build on efforts to reach a political settlement to the conflict in Libya. “Egypt seeks to avoid an escalation of the military situation and grant all Libyan parties the opportunity to reach a Libyan-Libyan peaceful solution,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said.

In June, Egypt proposed an initiative to solve the crisis in Libya following the GNA military gains on the ground. This initiative called for a ceasefire, respect of an arms embargo on Libya and working towards a political settlement in the war-torn country. This initiative, however, was quickly rejected with the GNA and its backer Turkey.

With international involvement, the situation in Libya has stopped from escalating for now. But the question now remains about how far the foreign backers, particularly Turkey, are willing to help deescalate the situation and reach a permanent settlement to the conflict in the oil-rich country.

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Whether in Syria, Libya, or the Mediterranean, Ankara’s modus operandi of provocation and aggression is omnipresent. Syrian mercenaries are one of the keys to Turkish leader Recep Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman fantasies. According to reports, Turkey is now sending mercenary fighters to Azerbaijan. Their track record of monstrosities is likely to yield mayhem and will leave Europe scrambling for leverage against Turkey once again.

Turkey’s Ties to the SNA Militia

Turkey remains a major player in Syria and relies on the Syrian National Army (SNA), a radical Islamic rebel militia that serve as ground troops loyal to Ankara. According to a report by the UN Human Rights Council, these groups are responsible for numerous war crimes in the region, primarily against the civilian population.

The malicious actions include looting, kidnapping, rape, torture, and displacement of non-combatants. In addition, there is the robbery and destruction of world cultural treasures and religious sites in the Kurdish region of Afrin, which the Syrian rebels conquered on behalf of Ankara in 2018.

Turkey’s Aggressive, Expansionist Policy

The UN’s 25-page report speaks of a “systematic and coordinated approach” by the armed groups. Just over a week ago chairman of the UN commission of inquiry Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro called on Turkey to “investigate the facts.” However, the Turkish Foreign Ministry had already rejected “all allegations” days earlier as “unfounded”. It’s clear that Ankara was protecting the Syrian rebel militia members.

The militiamen enjoy immunity for good reason. The SNA is at the heart of Turkey’s aggressive, expansionist policy. Their brutal approach sends a message to the region: nobody should oppose Turkey because the consequences are severe.

Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman Dream

Provocation and deterrence are part of a strategy that Erdogan hopes will once again make Turkey a world power. That is Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman dream, and the Syrian militias are his surrogates. The Turkish president had them fight first in Syria and then in Libya.

According to the latest reports, Turkey is sending Syrian fighters to Azerbaijan, too, where they are entering the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey supports the country in the Caucasus in the conflict with Armenia.

If the reports about Syrian fighters in Azerbaijan are confirmed, it would ultimately not be a surprise. Turkey would then have exported its foreign policy model for the second time.

Europe’s Turkish Dilemma

Ankara’s aggressive foreign policy, which is also flaring up in the Mediterranean and contributing to the ongoing clash with Greece, has also brought the EU to the negotiating table. In fact, Brussels most recently attempted to discuss sanctions against Turkey just last week. However, the EU postponed the meeting at short notice due to a coronavirus case.

The dilemma for Europe started with Syria and the civil war in which Turkey increasingly interfered. Here, Ankara tested how far it could go and learned that no nation or bloc was effectively opposing it internationally. Hence Turkey has found that its policy of aggression and deterrence works.

One can say that Syria was a kind of experimental laboratory for Turkey to sound out the international power-political sensitivities. And the result of the experiment is a success. Turkey rose to become a regional power player that no one can ignore. Ankara prevailed against the US and even stood up to Russia — the ally of the Assad regime — while utterly ignoring Europe’s interests and resentments.

Turkey’s Tremendous Leverage at Home and Abroad

And why not? Thanks to the EU refugee deal, Erdogan possesses significant leverage in the form of 3.6 million Syrian refugees in the country. Turkey signed the deal with the EU in 2016 but has violated it at will. Most recently, in the spring of this year, Erdogan staged a new refugee crisis when he had tens of thousands of Syrians, Afghans, Pakistanis, and Iranians transported to the Greek border in the middle of the pandemic.

After Syria, Ankara exported its model to Libya. Turkey armed the UN-recognized Sarraj government in Tripoli and sent its Syrian mercenaries to back it up with force. The result is that Turkey has become a powerful actor in Libya, which will have a decisive influence on the oil-rich country’s future.

On top of that, Erdogan got another lever to blackmail Europe. Libya is a transit country for hundreds of thousands of refugees from all over the world. Turkey could put them in boats and send them to Europe, as has already happened on the border with Greece.

The Difficulty of Containing Turkey

In Libya, Turkey violated the arms embargo imposed by the UN Security Council. However, hardly anyone in Ankara is interested in international rules unless they benefit Turkey itself. In November last year, Turkey signed an agreement with Tripoli on exploiting natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara would prefer to exploit the gas reserves unilaterally, and this issue provoked a conflict with Greece in the summer that led to the brink of armed confrontation. It was only when the EU put political pressure on him that Erdogan became ready to negotiate.

However, this pressure is difficult to build up and its worst-case result is nightmarish. Nobody is interested in pursuing a course of confrontation with Turkey.

On the one hand, Turkey makes an essential contribution to NATO and is an important trading partner. And on the other hand, the refugee problem remains. Pressure from the EU is one of those things that can only be ratcheted up to a certain extent before becoming self-defeating and dangerous.

Turkey is cognizant of this and is continuing to move forward with its agenda, with Azerbaijan being the next chess piece and a hobbled European Union acting as its hapless pawn.

L'articolo Neo-Ottoman Fantasies: Turkey Eyes Azerbaijan proviene da InsideOver.

After Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj recently announced his intention to step down in October, the Turkish government was the first to question the move. After all, Ankara had been the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) largest supporter.

As InsideOver’s Amr Emam wrote, “Turkish support succeeded in reviving GNA hopes for gaining a sizable space on Libya’s political map” and pushing back rebel Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s forces.

The prospect of a GNA without Sarraj at the helm threatens to disrupt Turkey’s efforts at seeing the GNA succeed. However, although Ankara is dismayed by the prime minister throwing in the towel, it reaffirmed its support for Tripoli’s UN-recognized government, as Reuters recently reported.

Turkey’s Heavily-Armed Guiding Hand

In particular, the Turkish government will continue to uphold agreements with the GNA including a security deal, which was signed in 2019. The statement was made by Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, who also downplayed the overall importance of Sarraj in the success of the partnership.

“These accords will not be impacted by this political period because these are decisions made by the government, not by any individual,” Kalin said.

Initially, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the news of Sarraj’s potential upcoming departure “upsetting.” 

“A development like this, hearing such news, has been upsetting for us,” the Turkish president said. He also added that representatives from Ankara may visit Libya to hold discussions with Sarraj’s government.

For Turkey, a united Libya is has hinged upon Sarraj, who has dutifully played the part of Ankara’s puppet. However, it has mostly paid off: Turkey provides military technology, weapons and support, and Sarraj lets Ankara guide his hand. Until now, this strategy had been working.

Ankara Remains Involved

Even so, with Sarraj most likely on the way out, Erdogan still hopes to play an active role in Libya’s future. 

“If Sarraj does not remain in office, there are some names who are involved in the processes and can take the GNA forward. These are, of course, Libya’s own issues, but Turkey may provide some support,” a Turkish official said.

With Sarraj gone, Turkey’s fight to dictate Libya’s future will begin anew in earnest. Whereas before Ankara was tasked with assisting the GNA in fighting a civil war, one that is still only on pause, now it must focus on preserving the GNA itself. In that mission, Turkey is mostly alone as several regional and Western powers are pushing for the Cairo Declaration to be enacted.

France, Egypt, the UAE, and Russia have already spoken out in favor of the idea, concocted by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in coordination with Haftar’s Libyan National Army. In the arrangement, which was unveiled in June, all foreign soldiers and mercenaries will be sent home, a ceasefire declared, and Libyans would relinquish their weapons to the LNA. Then, a national election would be called.

Iran Joins Turkey

The Libyan conflict has also spawned an unusual alliance in Turkey and Iran finding common ground. Turkey’s interest in Libya has from the onset been essentially an economic one, Tahir Abbas wrote for Modern Diplomacy. What other Middle Eastern state is having economic problems? Iran.

Tehran boasts the largest proxy network in the region and could summon forces to ensure the GNA keeps hold of power long after Sarraj steps down. In return, Ankara can help its neighbor by advocating for it on the global stage against US-imposed sanctions. Iran has few allies, and fewer still who are willing to speak out on its behalf.

Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey is positioned to be the strong regional ally Iran desperately needs, particularly as neighboring states join together on issues such as relations with Israel.

Turkey’s Libya Mission Grows More Difficult

The Turkish path forward in Libya will look strangely similar to the one it has already walked, mired by political discussions of how a new government should look and disagreements in how the Libyan people should be represented. Oddly, although Turkey and the GNA have proved successful, the strong, stubborn band of international actors aligned against it are determined to see it fail.

As leader of the GNA, Sarraj embodied and personified its success. With Sarraj gone, those states will ramp up their efforts to push for a government dominated by the LNA. To be clear, not all Libyans support the GNA, but it has legitimacy.

Fortunately, with international involvement, peace processes will continue to play out between the two factions even without Sarraj’s leadership. With his pending resignation, the nation is not suddenly doomed to spiral back into the civil war that has marred the state for six years.

However, for the actors that have backed the GNA, namely Turkey, the mission to keep it alive has grown incalculably harder. 

L'articolo Turkey’s Mission in Libya Grows Harder With Sarraj’s Pending Resignation proviene da InsideOver.

The head of Libya’s internationally-recognized government Fayez al Sarraj has called it quits. His departure comes almost five years after presiding over the government and the Presidential Council that controls most of western Libya.

Al Sarraj Announces His Departure: ‘No Later Than the End of October’

He said in a televised address on Wednesday that he would remain in office to the end of October, until a new presidential council is elected.

“I declare my sincere desire to hand over my duties to the next executive authority no later than the end of October,” Sarraj said, adding that “hopefully, the dialogue committee will complete its work and choose a new presidential council and prime minister.”

Sarraj’s move opens the door for speculation over the future of the political situation in Tripoli, the Libyan capital where his Government of National Accord (GNA) is based, along with the presidential council.

It also raises questions on the future of the Libya conflict as a whole.

Sensitive Timing

Al Sarraj’s resignation declaration comes as Tripoli boils in anger over the GNA’s failure in addressing the problems of its residents and catering to their needs.

Tripoli’s residents complain against electricity cuts and the lack of fuel and basic necessities. They staged a series of protests over the past few days. However, the protests were quelled by armed groups believed to be affiliated to the GNA.

The resignation declaration also comes at a time of major power struggles and rifts within the GNA, especially between Sarraj on one hand and his interior minister Fathi Bashagha on the other.

Bashagha is believed to be pulling most of the strings in Tripoli, being in control of most of the militias and armed groups that control the Libyan capital.

International Power Play?

There is belief that Sarraj’s resignation is part of an agreement between international and regional parties to the Libyan conflict to settle this conflict.

Libya has descended into civil war since the downfall of autocrat Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. This civil war opened the door for international and regional interference in Libya, namely through support of local parties to the conflict.

Apart from being recognized by the United Nations, the GNA receives support from Turkey which sends arms and mercenaries to Libya.

Turkish support succeeded in reviving GNA hopes for gaining a sizable space on Libya’s political map. It also succeeded in repelling a 14-month campaign on Tripoli and western Libya by the GNA’s rival force, namely the Libyan National Army (LNA) which controls most of eastern and southern Libya.

The LNA, which is commanded by Khalifa Haftar, a Gaddafi era army officer, receives support from a long list of states, including France, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia.

“Sarraj’s resignation is a reflection of the presence of an international will for settling the conflict in Libya,” said Abdel Qadir Qazit, a member of the Supreme State Council, an affiliate of the GNA.

“There are international arrangements for forming a new presidential council, one in which Sarraj will have no place,” Qazit added.

Sarraj’s resignation comes also while representatives of the GNA and LNA hold talks in Morocco. The talks followed the declaration of a ceasefire throughout Libya by the GNA, on one hand, and the House of Deputies, the eastern Libya parliament, on the other.

Al Sarraj: Libya Was Targeted by ‘Internal and External Conspiracies Every Day’

Sarraj said in his televised address on Wednesday that his government worked in tough conditions.

“The government was the target of internal and external conspiracies every day,” he said.

He said all talks aiming at reaching a political settlement to the conflict in Libya failed because some parties he did not name always wanted war.

This also opens the door for uncertainties on the future of the conflict in Libya after Sarraj’s resignation and whether this resignation can give the go-ahead for further power struggles inside the GNA.

The formation of a new presidential council as a prelude for negotiations between Libya’s rivals to open the door for general elections and then a comprehensive settlement of the conflict were stipulated in an Egyptian initiative for ending the war in Libya.

The Cairo Declaration

The initiative, known as Cairo Declaration, was welcomed by most western powers. Nevertheless, it was rejected by Turkey and the GNA.

Representatives of Sarraj arrived in Cairo a few days ago to hold talks with Egyptian officials on means of ending the conflict in Libya.

There was not a statement on the talks from the Egyptian government, but observers expect them to have focused on pushing the Egyptian blueprint for resolving the conflict in Libya forward.

Nevertheless, some Libyan officials believe Sarraj’s resignation amounts to more than a political maneuver.

By making his resignation conditional on the success of the dialogue committee which holds talks in Morocco now in forming a new presidential council and naming a new prime minister, Sarraj wants to shirk responsibility for either staying in office or leaving.

“So, if the committee fails in forming a new presidential council and naming a prime minister, Sarraj can stay in office,” said Gaballah al Shibani, a member of the eastern Libya parliament.

“This will give him the chance to claim that he does not cling to power, but it is the committee that failed in paving the road for his exit,” al Shibani added.

L'articolo Libya’s Sarraj Calls It Quits, Opening Door For All Scenarios proviene da InsideOver.

Tensions between French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have been escalating since June following an incident involving a French frigate near the coast of Libya. The ship was there to enforce a NATO arms embargo and tried to search a cargo ship. However, it was targeted by Turkish naval vessels which escorted the ship away, according to Paris. Ankara said the cargo ship was carrying humanitarian aid.

The situation has only gotten worse since the incident, as Macron has sent warships to the Aegean Sea in case Erdoğan does not withdraw his naval forces from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Greece is also planning to double its western territorial waters with Italy to 12 nautical miles, a right provided under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, an agreement which Turkey has not signed up to.

Erdoğan Calls Macron ‘Greedy and Incompetent’

EU member states agreed on a list of sanctions against the Turkish Government in case they fail to deescalate tensions in the region. Considering France is one of the loudest advocates for sanctions against Turkey, Erdoğan responded by calling Macron “greedy and incompetent.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Saturday said that the EU’s actions could even spark a war.

Brussels has responded by saying that it will implement further measures if Ankara does not comply with the first set of sanctions.

Macron is Worsening Tensions with Turkey

Macron is failing to reduce tensions between himself and the Turkish leader, which is why Germany would like to mediate the Turkish-Greek dispute over the Mediterranean. If the French leader is not careful, he could lose the wider strategic battle that he has been pursuing with Erdoğan since June.

The French President has the capacity to regain the initiative from his Turkish counterpart, but that largely depends upon his success in ending tensions in Libya.

Last week, Macron invited Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) to visit Paris.

Can Macron Restore Peace to Libya?

Sarraj accepted France’s invitation because it represents a chance to implement a new ceasefire alongside fresh elections. It is also a chance for Libya to resume its oil production.

Yet Macron’s initiative faces two obstacles. Any settlement in Libya depends upon Sarraj receiving Erdoğan’s approval and support.

The Turkish President has the upper hand in the Libyan conflict and he would like to occupy the strategic city of Sirte that provides the Turks with a gateway to the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast.

Considering the Turkish leader has nothing but disdain toward Macron, why would he support a peace initiative led by his French rival?

Erdoğan Has Outflanked Macron in the Middle East

Also, other key players like Russia would need to be involved in the discussions. Due to a lack of US involvement in the Libyan conflict, Moscow and Ankara have emerged as the main rivals for control over the war-torn country. Russia is also interested in controlling Sirte and that is why the Libyan war cannot end until Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdoğan have resolved their differences over Sirte.

If Macron, who has been a vocal critic of Sarraj’s GNA, can also persuade the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar to support a ceasefire, it would provide France with a huge strategic advantage over both Turkey and Russia.

Nonetheless, Macron faces other strategic battles with Erdoğan beyond Libya. The French President visited Lebanon this week to show that he is interested in pursuing political reform there, but French attempts to influence Middle Eastern politics will be met by resistance from Turkey, Russia and Iran. The Russian-Iranian-Turkish triumvirate is working closely to squeeze US influence out of Syria and without wider NATO support, Macron cannot hope to take on this triumvirate on his own.

The Turkish President seems to be winning a strategic battle with Macron, whether that is in Greece or the rest of the Middle East. Macron has made tensions over the Mediterranean worse and he cannot afford to risk war with Turkey, which the latter has proposed in response to EU sanctions.

There is still a chance Macron could score a win in helping Libya, but by and large, he cannot defeat Turkey and should take steps to deescalate his confrontation with Ankara.

L'articolo Is Macron Losing His Strategic Battle with Erdogan? proviene da InsideOver.

On Friday, August 21, Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) issued a statement saying its leader Fayez al-Sarraj had given instructions to “all military forces to immediately ceasefire and all combat operations in all Libyan territories.”

Temporary Ceasefire

The Tripoli-based government’s plead for a truce was unexpected and soon received a similar call for a truce from Aguila Saleh Issa, the leader of an eastern-based parliament aligned to Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA).

The two sides mentioned the growing spread of the coronavirus in Libya as grounds for bringing the armed conflict to a temporary halt. Although with scarce testing, daily Covid-19 cases across the country rose by the hundreds in recent weeks, reaching a total of over 8,000 confirmed cases and more than 150 confirmed deaths.

The ongoing Libyan conflict has left the North African country with impaired infrastructure, not least its healthcare system, after almost a decade of relentless fighting. On Thursday, August 20, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) warned that the humanitarian crisis in Libya has deepened, amid the country’s abrupt cuts in oil production, blockades of its ports and, more recently, the spread of the coronavirus. The Red Cross also called for negotiations between the warring factions.

Skepticism in Sirte

Although the mutual call for peace shed some hope in the ravaged country, adding to the Libyan National Oil Company statement that same day that it was ready at last to resume oil operations at a rate close to the pre-COVID-19 rate, many people in Sirte were still skeptical.

The call for a ceasefire itself came in a time where the two belligerents’ armed forces were both heavily settled near the central city of Sirte. The coastal city, which also nears the country’s major oil terminals, became the conflict’s point of focus recently, bearing the new frontlines as Haftar’s forces settled around the city after the Turkish intervention pushed the LNA back from Tripoli in June.

Haftar’s forces, backed by Egypt and the UAE, among others, were attempting to seize Tripoli, where the GNA is based, for over a year since April 2019. Although recognized by the United Nations, the GNA mainly benefits from the support of Turkey and Qatar.

‘Deceptive Calm’

During a visit to Tripoli last week, Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas warned of a “deceptive calm” and noted that both sides were still arming themselves “on a massive scale” although there hadn’t been much confrontation in recent months. Maas also reiterated the United States’ call for a demilitarized zone in Sirte and Jufra.

Although there has been relatively little fighting since June, Turkey and the GNA seem poised to make further advances, even after Haftar’s forces withdrew to Sirte.

The LNA did not quickly respond to Sarraj’s call for peace on Friday, but on Sunday it said it deemed the new ceasefire attempt dubious.

“The initiative that Sarraj signed is for media marketing,” said Ahmed Mismari, the LNA’s spokesman. “There is a military build-up and the transfer of equipment to target our forces in Sirte.” Mismari even noted that the LNA was “ready to respond to any attempted attack on its positions around the coastal city of Sirte, and Jufra, to the south,” according to Reuters.

Too Many Actors

Observers have long argued that the conflict of Libya could not be solved by military means. But given the level of foreign meddling in the country, it has proven even harder to resolve diplomatically.

Turkey, who is at odds with its Mediterranean neighbors over energy reserves in the basin, soon sided with the Tripoli-based GNA, who promptly signed a maritime boundaries contract in favor of Ankara, while the United Arab Emirates and Egypt openly back Khalifa Haftar’s military rule. Other major powers, such as France and Russia, have also been accused of meddling in favor of Haftar.

In June, Egypt was among the first to warn the GNA —and Turkey— that attacks on Sirte and Jufra constituted crossing a “red line” that would systematically trigger an Egyptian military intervention.

Many Unsuccessful Peace Attempts So Far

All attempts to bring about peace to the Libyan people after almost a decade of war —most recently, the Berlin Summit earlier in January— stalled so far, not least because of the pressure exerted by foreign actors, on whom either factions heavily depend, to further their geopolitical and sometimes economic interests.

No longer than the following weekend, however, on Sunday, August 23, guns were fired in Tripoli to disperse hundreds of protesters who had gathered near the headquarters of the GNA to demonstrate over their squalid living conditions amid the current sanitary and economic crises.

L'articolo Glimmer of Hope for Peace in Libya, but Fear Lingers proviene da InsideOver.