Istanbul re-elections in Turkey have resulted in the loss of the government party AKP’s candidate, the former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım. The winner, Ekrem İmamoğlu, had the campaign slogan “Herşey Çok Güzel Olacak”, meaning “Everything Will Be Very Beautiful.” After the elections, people went out in the streets, celebrating until the early morning. Messages declaring “Everything has been very good now” flooded social media. There was victory in the air. There was euphoria. 

What most people do not wish to confess even to themselves is that everything has not been, and cannot be, very good with just one election. They either do not realize or do not wish to see that this feeling of euphoria is temporary.

The slogan with which İmamoğlu came to power, “Everything will be beautiful” is superficial. True, we live in a world where politicians and ad agents make superficial assertions all the time, aiming at our softer, more gullible sides. Trump promised a “beautiful” wall. It’s easy to make people fall for false promises of rose gardens. That’s why we need to be more careful with political rhetoric.

First of all, running a metropolis of more than 15 million is a very challenging task. To be able to make such a strong claim that all is now very fine or will be, one needs to have accomplished something first. Admittedly, for supporters of the CHP, winning an election meant so much. It implied getting back some power – it’s an accomplishment on its own.

Secondly, everything was not bad. What fanatical opponents of Erdoğan do not talk about is how advanced things are in Turkey. Criticize the president all you want, and there is reason for criticism in many places, but what’s Caesar’s should be given to Caesar.

Politics aside, public services work quite efficiently in Turkey. Be it being able to get on all public transportation, – buses, trains, trams, metros, and ferries alike – with an electronic-ticket Akbil, short for Akıllı Bilet (Smart Ticket), or getting appointments in hospitals, and being able to get blood tests efficiently. These are things that the capital cities of European countries lack. Turkey has quite a successful public health system, something that the “biggest” country in the world, the US has not been able to solve for years. There is health tourism to Turkey, with people coming from abroad for treatment at the big private hospitals. The post office, the banks… they work. What’s more, they work well.

Albeit not perfectly, everything works in Turkey. There is an e-government system which now incorporates almost every public institution. You can see the properties you own, their location, their mortgage status, or view it from Google Maps. You can do all your taxes online. UYAP-Ulusal Yargı Ağı Projesi, “National Jurisdiction Network Project” is an online platform where any citizen can go and see all the lawsuits on his name, check out all the papers filed for the case, see all court proceedings. With an e-signature or a certified e-mail, one can do anything online without having the need to go to an office. Even payments are made online. Forms are practical and easy to fill in.

The complaint procedures are there, too. Any citizen can reach the presidency or the ombudsman with the click of a keyboard and he will get an answer. Of course, there is no guarantee that one will like or approve of the answers they get, but the system is there. And again, works.

When you need to go to any public office, all your data can be accessed with your Turkish ID number, so that you can have the papers you need printed out in 20 seconds. Things do not work so efficiently in many European countries. Of course, there is a downside to all this – the government is too powerful. It has too much information about you. On the other hand, it is nice to be able to have paperwork done practically instead of suffering through bureaucracies.

Turkey has made a leap in the international arena as well. In May 2009, Turkey had only 12 embassies in Africa, whereas now it has 39. DEIK-Dış Ekonomik İlişkiler Kurumu, Turkey’s Foreign Economic Relations Board has held the second Turkey-Africa Economic and Business Forum along with partnership of the African Union last October. 

Turkish Airlines is the airline connecting the world to most African countries, going where other airlines fear to fly. In 2009, it had 13 destinations to the continent, whereas now it has 51. It flies to 32 of the 54 countries in Africa. It is not the biggest airline in the world by annual number of passengers, by passenger kilometers flown, by revenue or by fleet size. Yet, it is the airline flying to most countries in the world. It flies to 236 international destinations in 121 countries. The second runner-up is Air France, which flies to 91 countries. British Airways is third with 82 countries. 

So Turkey’s flag-carrier airline lives up to its “Globally Yours” slogan.

Turkey, alongside China, is in competition with Italy for exporting the largest amount of pasta globally. Many Turkish firms are constructing airports, railroads, hospitals, doing big infrastructure investment in Africa, South America and Asia.

In the last couple of years, Turkey has also invested in Antarctica, surprising many, with the delegates sent to conferences setting up a Turkish Polar Research Center (PolReC). There have been three national expeditions in the last three years. Some countries have complimented Turkey that it has done much more research in that short amount of time than countries that have been there for decades.

There have been mega projects in Istanbul, like the city’s third airport, the biggest in the world. The third bridge. The Euroasia Tunnel, the world’s first two-deck highway tunnel under the seabed. 

So why, with all this good in Turkey, is there backlash against Erdoğan or AKP? 

First of all, there are always people questioning political decisions or the allocation of funds from the national budget. People disagree on what to do or how to do things. There is no way out of that.

Second, we all know power corrupts, Erdoğan’s acting like a “sultan” probably played a part.

Another possible explanation may be found partly in the fact that gratefulness is not a lasting feeling in the political arena. What once upon a time looked like a dream (an efficient public administration system, a high-tech social environment in which business could thrive, quality public transportation at reasonable costs, a stunning set of modern infrastructures, and a health system comparable to those of the much-envied western economies) rapidly loses its allure once achieved, and starts being perceived as a commodity that is taken for granted.

Along with this “accomplishment effect”, a part of the explanation lies in the brisk slowing down of the economy, which, in a fast and painful spiral, has brought about higher unemployment, higher inflation, higher interest rates and a sheer drop in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira. Coupled with the hardening of the government’s grip on individual freedoms in the name of security, a growing sense of unrest in important areas of the country due to the revival of the Kurdish issue, reinforced by the difficult geopolitical scenario still hovering over the country, the Syrian crisis and number of refugees in Turkey, all have played a part.

On the other hand, the retaliation to the governing party is not new – there has been disgruntlement among the “elite” for a long time. Still, Erdoğan never really lost an election in almost two decades of rule. So why now?

Basically, the main opposition party CHP lacked real leadership. In Imamoğlu, people saw a glimmer of hope. Will he live up to the expectations of Istanbulites and the rest of the country? Who knows? But to say that everything has been very beautiful with the winning of Istanbul by CHP is premature. If everything will be beautiful or not, only time can tell…

Everywhere around the world, local administrative elections suffer from the same manipulative interpretation patterns: If the country’s ruling party wins a large city, the vote is portrayed as an endorsement for the policies at the national level and a boost to continue along the path. Should the governing party lose ground, the failure is rapidly downsized to a local event, nothing to do with national policies. However, Istanbul being the economic, cultural, and historic center, being the heart of Turkey, puts this election on a different level. Erdoğan himself has said “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey.”

On 6th of July, the head of the central bank, Murat Çetinkaya, was sacked due to a disagreement over the key policy decisions on interest rates and how to deal with the downfall of the Turkish lira, which suffered a 30% loss in value last year and 10% more this year.

Two days later, Turkey’s former economy minister and deputy prime minister, Ali Babacan, resigned from AKP, citing deep differences in principles, values and thoughts. Babacan was among the founders of the party in 2001. There is talk about a new formation coming up in autumn.

Perhaps it was time for some blood change in the country. Even though with age comes experience and wisdom, perhaps Erdoğan is getting old and losing the emotional touch with the electorate. 

Whoever comes to take over, apart from being capable of running a country, keeping up the good that has been done, should remember not to end up trapped in the sticky webs of political rhetoric. Like the Spider-Man quote: “With great power comes great responsibility.” And the important thing is to put that power to work for the advantage of the many. Well… That’s wise advice that all politicians around the world could use.

Erdoğan had responded to İmamoğlu with “Everything will be better.”  Everything being good and beautiful is utopia; “better”, we can aim for.

L'articolo Will Everything Really Be Beautiful? Turkey’s Political Rhetoric proviene da InsideOver.

“Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey,” noted president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan not so long ago. Words he’ll live to regret, if ever they come true. The city of his birth, his political awakening and his ascent to power is – after a quarter of a century – no longer his. In perhaps Turkey’s biggest political upset since the abortive coup of 2016, an opposition candidate – Ekrem İmamoğlu – has surged from relative obscurity to win Istanbul’s mayoral election. 

And win it by a comfortable margin, he did. No fewer than 800,000 votes separated İmamoğlu and his Erdoğan-endorsed opponent, Binali Yıldırım. The latter, a former prime minister of Turkey, had the slick election machine of the governing AKP party behind him, as well as overwhelmingly favourable coverage from state controlled media and huge amounts of funding. But still he lost.   

It was the second time in just three months that denizens of Turkey’s largest city were tasked with selecting a leader. İmamoğlu prevailed in March’s election also, but – alleging the vote was “tainted” – Erdoğan lent heavily on electoral authorities to order a rerun. It was a catastrophic miscalculation from the usually adept politician, with İmamoğlu increasing his vote share some sixty times in the second ballot.

Erdoğan was gracious in defeat this time around, recognising the emergence of “the national will”. The notoriously incorrigible leader promised to take stock of the result, vowing not to “ignore the messages given by the people”. But the fact remains that many – including members of his own party – blame him for the stinging loss.

His foot-stamping dismissal of the original result typified Erdoğan’s autocratic tendencies and played poorly with the Istanbul electorate. İmamoğlu offered them something the president and team could not – ‘umut’, or hope, a word synonymous with his insurgent campaign. His optimism, his inclusive message and his progressive ideals were an unapologetic rebuke to the president’s strident populism – and struck a chord with voters in search of some positivity. 

Mr Erdoğan will now be worried that Istanbul’s fervour for change could spread nationwide, and not without good reason. The city is Turkey’s economic and cultural hub, and has in the past dictated the sway of national politics for decades to come. The collapse of the once dominant Motherland Party began with defeat in Istanbul’s 1989 municipal election. And then, five years later, another local poll saw Erdoğan claim the mayoralty – the first step in his ascendant to the top.       

İmamoğlu has been quick to dismiss rumours that his victory could prompt a presidential bid, but Erdoğan knows a mayor’s ambition needn’t be confined to city limits for long – and the younger man’s presidential potential can’t be denied. Throwing off 25 years of AKP rule required grand coalition building, something Istanbul’s new leader has proven himself adept at. His secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) has brought together Kurds, nationalists, Islamists, and even some disenchanted AKP members. 

And Istanbul will offer the mayor further opportunities to burnish his leadership credentials. The city accounts for just short of a third of Turkey’s total GDP, and commands a municipal budget of $4bn. It is suffering something of a migration crisis, however, with 600,000 residents moving out of the city in 2018, according to official statistics.

This is symptomatic of Turkey’s acute recession, which is crushing living standards nationwide. Brought on by years of large-scale building projects cheaply funded through foreign credit, the economic crisis has forced national unemployment rates towards 15% – with experts warning that the bad times are likely to endure. 

“Because previous crises were left behind quickly, the duration of unemployment was not too long. But now people will be unemployed for a very long time,” said Seyfettin Gursel, director of the Betam research center at Istanbul’s Bahcesehir University.

A champion of Turkey’s explosive growth in recent years, the economic downturn has smashed Erdoğan’s personal credibility. It was his AKP government that accelerated borrowing to fund huge infrastructure and construction projects – but with the collapse of their lira currency, Turks are desperately struggling to pay their foreign creditors. Growing disenchantment with the government’s economic policy was a key driver in the Istanbul mayoral contest, experts say.

It was, however, Erdoğan’s assault on civil society that hindered his candidate most. Press freedom, judicial independence and human rights have all been cracked down on – especially in the aftermath of 2016’s failed coup. Free elections were perhaps the last bastion of true democracy in Turkey, and Istanbul’s voters used theirs to send a clear message: İmamoğlu’s positivity trumps AKP repression. 

Mr Erdoğan will be especially concerned that the new mayor managed to win over one-time AKP voters. Tens-of-thousands of citizens who backed the president’s party in March shifted across to İmamoğlu in the rerun, polling data shows. This speaks to the wider threat of division among Erdoğan’s ranks. There are wide rumours that former deputy prime minister Ali Babacan and former president Abdullah Gul – two stalwarts of the AKP movement – are planning a breakaway party.

And while that would be devastating for the president, it’s the lethal mix of powerbase disintegration and growing opposition unity that could prove fatal, experts believe. Those who oppose Mr Erdoğan “now have the recipe for electoral success,” said Berk Esen, assistant professor of international relations at Ankara’s Bilkent University. The president “will have added difficulty in keeping his party and base together without access to Istanbul municipality’s vast resources,” he added, speaking to InsideOver.

For the time being, however, Erdoğan remains in charge. He is equipped with sweeping executive powers which could, hypothetically, be used to undermine Mr İmamoğlu. Further erosion of democratic principles would be abominable, but with a populist leader like Mr Erdoğan backed into a corner, not unthinkable. “Hope and love won this process. Mr İmamoğlu represents the future,” a colleague of the new mayor said after his election. A message of promise for those in greatest need; a dire warning – perhaps even a threat – for those already at the top.

L'articolo President Erdogan’s Uncertain Future After Istanbul Upset proviene da InsideOver.

A new day begins in Turkey, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party lost the Istanbul mayoral election for the second time this year. After the March 31 election resulted in 48.8 percent in favor of Ekrem Imamoglu versus 45.55 percent for former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) immediately requested a full recount. After it was verified that Imamoglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) had indeed won, he was officially sworn in as mayor.

That didn’t deter the AKP from further contesting the election, however. It petitioned the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) for the results to be nullified and a new election to be held, a request the council ultimately granted. To ensure electoral integrity, lawyers from around the nation traveled to Istanbul. All 2,000 booths in the do-over election had a lawyer present. The idea to have lawyers monitor the election process actually came from the CHP as a preemptive measure to prevent the AKP from manipulating the results or claiming they were invalid.

Sunday’s election delivered an even harsher blow to Erdogan’s party: Imamoglu won over 54 percent of the vote when the election was called in his favor and Yildirim conceded.

Istanbul’s mayoral election is not simply about control over the city, but of Istanbul itself. Erdogan once said, “Whoever loses Istanbul loses Turkey.”

Erdogan has been at the helm of Turkey’s politics since serving as Istanbul’s mayor in the mid-1990s. The AKP has held onto power for two decades. Considering the fact that Erdogan founded the party in 2001 and has served in number of positions including 11 years as prime minister, the sound defeat is a stunning blow to Erdogan himself.

Economic conditions and a loss of civil liberties likely played a role in the election of Imamoglu who promised a return to democracy. Now Imamoglu will be challenged with leading a city that has the power to alter politics on the national level, as evidenced with the rise of Erdogan 20 years ago.

Imamoglu and Erdogan could not be more different. While the president is paranoid, the new mayor is calm. Where Erdogan preaches populist politics and seeks to divide, Imamoglu campaigned on unity and inclusion.

For most of Erdogan’s rule, Turkey has prospered, weathering the financial crisis that struck the U.S. in 2008, as foreign investors flooded his nation. However, that growth could only be sustained for so long and now, faced with a stronger U.S. economy, foreign investment has run dry. Both inflation and unemployment have begun to skyrocket, spelling possible doom for the AKP.

To make matters worse, Erdogan has taken an authoritarian approach to civil liberties with a major emphasis on restricting the media and silencing unfavorable or opposing views. He’s used the court system and prison to punish opposition, journalists, and activists. Tens of thousands are estimated to be imprisoned under the guise of protecting the country from terrorism, often blamed on the Kurds.

As recently as 2017, the Turkish were seemingly fine with all of this. They voted 51.41 percent in favor of a 2017 constitutional referendum which eliminated the prime minister position and entrusted the president with more power.

As with his civil liberties crackdown, Erdogan pitched the referendum as a security measure. In fact, the 18-point plan was designed and voted on following a 2016 coup attempt. Many have speculated that the coup might have actually been designed by Erdogan himself to create an emergency situation in preparation for a power grab. Speaking about the coup, he called it “a gift from God.”

A Turkey without Erdogan and his AKP in power has been difficult to fathom in light of his siege of power, but with Sunday’s election, it became clear that it may be possible in the coming years. More so, the election, a rousing defeat of Erdogan’s party in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, was the first sign that Turkish voters are beginning to sour on the president’s policies. Critically, their willingness to rebuke the AKP shows they are unafraid and undeterred by Erdogan’s brutal tactics at suppressing his opposition.

While Imamoglu won the mayor’s office, he will still be forced to contend with the AKP, which continues to hold a majority of the municipal seats. Politics is often compromise, however, and if he can do so effectively, he might be leading all of Turkey one day. After all, Erdogan was built in Istanbul; perhaps that is why he was so threatened by Imamoglu.

L'articolo Erdogan’s Party Loses Istanbul as Voters Rebuke it for Second Time proviene da InsideOver.