Israel is about to break a world record. By Sunday morning, January 3, more than 1 million Israelis had been vaccinated against COVID-19, about 12% of the country’s population.

While Israel, like many other western countries, has failed quite miserably at containing the virus’s spread, it is much better suited to the current challenge – quickly completing vaccination of its most vulnerable population, about 2 million over-60 year olds along with citizens suffering from comorbidities. Within another week, most of these people would have received the first round of vaccine. As a result, the number of deaths and severe cases of illness is expected to diminish pretty quickly.

COVID-19 Exposes National Weaknesses – and Strengths

All over the world, the disease has acted like an X-ray, exposing each country’s weaknesses. For Israel, it was mainly lack of long-term planning, leadership and self-discipline. As I’ve noted here before at InsideOver, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal woes have made the situation even worse.

Netanyahu, who will soon be facing a fourth round of elections in two years, remains absolutely at the mercy of his political allies. Since he desperately needs their support in his efforts to stop the judiciary from moving ahead with his criminal trial, he depends on the Ultra-Orthodox parties and therefore cannot allow himself to frustrate them.

This is why Netanyahu didn’t force much-needed public health limitations on Israel’s Ultra-Orthodox communities, where the virus had been allowed to run wild. The result? The country is now in the midst of a third general lockdown, with all Israelis paying the price for the negligence among specific communities.

Israel’s Vaccine Advantage

Yet vaccinations are practically Israel’s thing. The country’s origins, as a mostly socialist state, are actually quite helpful this time. David Ben-Gurion and his partners left us with a reliable, efficient, healthcare system which registers every Israeli with government-linked insurance agencies. Those agencies, along with the hospitals, are very effective at delivering vaccinations and collecting data about the national operation.

The Israeli public is extremely positive towards all vaccinations. What’s more, the country is small and it doesn’t take more than a few hours to deliver vaccines to every town and village.

Political Implications for Netanyahu

Netanyahu has already promised Israeli citizens that their country will be the first in the world to overcome the coronavirus. This time he may be right. If Pfizer and Moderna fulfill their commitments and provide Israel with more vaccines during the next month, over half the Israeli population may be vaccinated by early March. This is especially crucial to Netanyahu’s party, Likud’s, campaign.

Netanyahu’s whole campaign relies on the narrative: I’m bringing you the vaccines and saving you from the virus and our economy will quickly recover, much earlier than everybody else. Many voters will buy into this logic, in spite of his failures handling the pandemic. Netanyahu can also present the public with his recent diplomatic achievements, signing normalization agreements with three Arab countries (United Arab Emirates, Bahrein and Morocco), possibly a fourth (Sudan), and maybe, maybe even a fifth (Saudi Arabia).

However, the prime minister remains a deeply divisive persona. Slightly over a half of all Israelis regard him as a persona non grata according to recent public opinion polls. A new, enthusiastic, protest movement has also led to demonstrations demanding his resignation all over the country, a few times every week since the beginning of the pandemic. Protesters accuse Netanyahu of corruption and justifiably point out that his refusal to face trial has led Israel into a long and unprecedented political and economic crisis (the PM also refuses to pass a budget).

Gideon Sa’ar — formerly a senior Likud minister — recently left the party, challenged Netanyahu’s leadership and established a new party, unsurprisingly called “New Hope”. The animosity between Netanyahu and six different leaders of other parties, most of them former partners, may just prevent the PM from establishing a new coalition after the elections.

Netanyahu Shouldn’t be Counted Out Yet

On the other hand, we shouldn’t ignore the prime minister’s knack for exhausting and destroying all political opposition. Netanyahu has ruled Israel for almost twelve consecutive years, following a short and unsuccessful term for three years in the late 1990’s.

Last March he used the pandemic as a pretext to lure his main opponent, former army chief of staff Benny Gantz from the newly established Blue and White party, into joining an emergency national-unity government. Less than a year later, Gantz is a washed-out political has-been, his party shattered into pieces. It remains doubtful whether Gantz will even run in the next elections.

Netanyahu, it turns out, never meant to respect his commitments of working together and allowing Gantz to replace him as prime minister this November. He was only playing for time, waiting for a better opportunity. In less than three months, we will know if he, uncharacteristically, grossly miscalculated.

All of this may sound slightly similar to many Israelis’ perception of Italy in the 1980s and the 90s — a long national malaise, corrupt politicians and an endless cycle of collapsing governments and frequent elections. As one of Israel’s most capable politicians recently told me, all this comes with a significant distinction from Italy that makes Israel’s political situation different.

“Our coffee, ice cream and football teams were never that good”, he gloomily admitted.

L'articolo Israel and COVID proviene da InsideOver.

In a devastating blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership, Likud Member of the Knesset (MK) Gideon Sa’ar — long seen as the Prime Minister’s nemesis in the Likud Party — announced he was quitting the party and will form his own right-wing party. Sa’ar’s new party will be called New Hope and he will run under its banner for the premiership in the next election, which looks likely to come soon.

The former leading Likud minister said his party had become a “tool for the personal interests of the person in charge, including matters relating to his criminal trial,” and has fostered a “cult of personality” around Netanyahu.

Sa’ar will also be resigning his Knesset seat because he felt it was right for him to step down as he was elected to parliament for Likud.

Sa’ar: ‘Replacing Netanyahu is the Order of the Hour’

Sa’ar, who failed in a leadership challenge against the current Prime Minister last year, said the current coalition had wasted its parliamentary support, and failed in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Replacing Netanyahu is the order of the hour,” he declared, adding that the dangers of overly protracted leadership create a moral hazard.

There are many reasons why Netanyahu should be worried about Sa’ar’s leadership bid. Israel elects its governments using proportional representation, which means that the number of seats a party receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of votes it wins.

Sa’ar Could Pose a Direct Challenge to Netanyahu

On their own, New Hope might not receive a lot of votes, but Sa’ar’s new party will aim to join forces with other existing political factions before the next election. Derech Eretz MKs Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — who quit the Blue and White list when they joined the Netanyahu-led government in May — may also join New Hope.

Israel looks likely to be heading towards its fourth election in two years. Last Wednesday, the Knesset gave initial approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament amid a budget crisis and call a new vote.

Though the polls currently suggest Likud would be the largest party after a fourth election, Sa’ar could split the vote for Netanyahu. The Prime Minister is fighting back against Naftali Bennett’s Yamina, which is the official opposition party. Bennett has made significant gains in recent polls and he also poses a challenge to Netanyahu.

Has Netanyahu’s Luck Run Out?

Despite this, Israelis have little faith in either Netanyahu or his Blue and White counterpart Benny Gantz. The Israel Voice Index survey shows that 62 percent of Israelis view the Prime Minister as having very low or moderately low credibility, while 60 percent say the same for the Defense Minister. These low levels of support for both figures will affect how both of their parties perform during a fourth election, especially when Bennett’s credibility is rising in some polls.

Many political analysts told The Times of Israel that the current Likud-Blue and White coalition might incline more toward a compromise in the light of the electoral threat posed by Sa’ar’s party. If both parties do this, it is unclear what impact this will have on the state budget, which is due to be rejected on December 23. Once it is rejected, an election would automatically be called for March 23. Either way, both Gantz and Netanyahu realize that Sa’ar poses a threat to their coalition.

Netanyahu has been fortunate enough to win the last three elections over the last two years. Until now, he has also been the favorite to win a fourth election. The Prime Minister has survived many different scenarios over the last two years and with Sa’ar now leading his own party, maybe Netanyahu’s luck is about to run out, but that may not be a bad thing given how much his credibility has been damaged recently.

L'articolo What Impact Will Israel’s New Right-Wing Party Have on Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.

Israel’s government coalition remains a highly volatile partnership. The latest example was seen this week when the country avoided the fourth new election in two years at the last minute.

Major Instability Still Remains

However, with the postponement of the budget dispute, the next round in the ongoing battle between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz is just that: postponed, not overcome nor canceled. With it, the next conflict is already waiting.

The coalition’s volatility between Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’s Blue & White had been anticipated when both agreed to the terms of their forced partnership. Accordingly, there has now been an ongoing dispute among both parties since they took office on May 17.

This week, it nearly ended the coalition, in which case the Israelis would have cast their votes for the fourth time in just two years.

The Budget Dispute

Specifically, the dispute was about the country’s budget—the coalition agreement provided for adopting a budget for the rest of this year and next year. However, Netanyahu and his Likud claimed that this would tie the government’s hands in urgent action to help the economy, which has been hurt due to the coronavirus pandemic. Netanyahu stuck to his position. Gantz, who opposed it, also remained tough.

The reason for this is that Netanyahu and Gantz are concerned with their political future. In Israel, there are automatically new elections if the deadline does not pass the budget. Unlike in other cases of failure of the current coalition, Netanyahu would thus remain in office.

The approval of the budget for the coming year is, therefore, a reassurance for Gantz that Netanyahu, as agreed in the coalition agreement, will hand over the baton to him in November 2021. Literally, at the last minute, both sides agreed on a bill that postpones the deadline for adopting the budget by three months and thus provides both a respite. The new deadline is now December 23.

Is it Really a Co-Equal Coalition Government?

The deep distrust between Netanyahu and Gantz suggests that the issue will remain, despite the postponement, which, by no means, will mitigate the current circumstances in Israel. While Netanyahu and Gantz are equal partners on paper, Blue and White remain the minority partner. The party not only has fewer parliamentary seats than the Likud, but the public does not credit Gantz’s willingness to compromise. Instead, he is criticized as a man without a backbone. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is doing everything possible to present himself as Israel’s unilateral answer to a greater future.

The most recent example of this is the normalization agreement with the United Arab Emirates. Gantz and Foreign Minister Ashkenazi only found out about this when President Trump spread the news on Twitter. Instead of admitting to the two that they were correct in their line of balancing with countries in the region over the planned annexation of parts of the West Bank, Netanyahu said he had not informed the two because he was afraid they might do something leak to the public.

Had Netanyahu let the coalition collapse, an expensive and challenging election campaign would likely have overshadowed his Emirates’ success. In addition to the COVID-19 crisis, that was arguably another reason why he finally agreed to the postponement.

The Threat of New Elections Still Remains

However, the threat of new elections has not disappeared and Netanyahu will do everything possible to maintain his power and attempt to circumvent the agreement of having Gantz becoming his successor.

He is still on trial for corruption charges and can no longer avoid the latter. However, by staying in power, he could severely lengthen the process and influence a potential jail sentence by appointing posts such as attorney general and police chief.

Blue and White, and above all, Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn, whose prerogative is filling such vacancies, are currently standing in the way of such an approach. For the time being, Likud has stipulated that the picks will be made by a committee that also includes Likud representatives. The decision on the exact composition remains pending for now.

Israel’s government is, therefore, far from being out of the woods.

L'articolo Israel Avoids Yet Another Crisis – For Now proviene da InsideOver.

Israel’s new government coalition has not been in office for long. Nevertheless, it is already facing its first crisis. A scenario in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exits the agreement is now conceivable. While it carries negative economic implications, such a move could end up securing his own political future.

Yet Another Election for Israel?

Israel’s governing coalition is less than three months old. Nevertheless, new elections are now a possibility. It would be the fourth within 18 months.

When forming the government in May, Netanyahu and coalition partner Benny Gantz promised that they would overcome previous hostility in a joint effort to steer the nation through the coronavirus crisis together. The price was significant. The agreement stipulates that Gantz will first become defense minister and then replace Netanyahu as leader after one and a half years.

Some Differences Aren’t Bridgeable

The harmony was short-lived. Both men remain so different that specific gaps cannot be bridged, such as the country’s reform of the judiciary or Netanyahu’s annexation plans for the West Bank.

The financial budget is the latest point of division. Netanyahu insists on a one-year budget, limited till the end of this year only. Gantz, on the other hand, insists on setting the budget until the end of 2021. The coalition agreement states that the government will adopt a two-year budget.

The coalition may have been a noble undertaking, but remains forced and thus highly volatile. Now, the time has become of the essence. Netanyahu and Gantz have until August 25 to find common ground and pass the state budget in parliament. If they fail, new elections will automatically be due, which would take place in November.

More Pressure on Israel if Budget Doesn’t Pass by August

If Netanyahu prevails with his demand, Israel could find itself on the watch-list of the rating agencies. The result would likely be higher interest rates on Israel’s national debt.

Since the government takes on a large part of the corona-related new debt abroad, the latter would put additional pressure on the country’s growth prospects. In April, the rating agency Moody’s gave Israel an A1 rating of “stable”. The political situation now is sending dubious signals with regard to the management of the fiscal policy. The latter will, in all probability, be reflected in the reports of the rating agencies.

Gantz’s plan has the support of various renowned economists. More than a dozen economists had formulated their arguments for a budget until the end of 2021 in an open letter in the past few weeks.

Netanyahu’s Short-Term Budget is Risky

And indeed, Netanyahu’s demand to pass a budget for only four months may be dangerous because investors insist on a longer-term framework. A budget that is only set for the remaining months of the current year may radiate uncertainty and lack of direction.

The opposition is now accusing Netanyahu of putting his personal interests above those of the country. If new elections come in November, Netanyahu can rule with a transitional government until the next coalition is sworn in.

Moreover, the government crisis prevents the formulation and implementation of a coherent economic policy. Given increasing poverty and high unemployment in Israel, however, it is urgently needed. According to Israel’s employment agency, 21.5 percent of Israelis are currently unemployed.

Can Netanyahu Push Gantz Out and Stay in Power?

Tens of thousands have been protesting against Netanyahu for weeks and accusing him of mismanagement during the crisis in addition to his alleged cases of corruption. Nonetheless, polls indicate he would again have a solid chance of staying at the head of the cabinet with his religious partners without having to share power with Gantz.

According to the coalition agreement, Netanyahu would have to vacate the prime minister’s office in the summer of 2021 and let Gantz move in. The budget dispute is a Machiavellian route for Netanyahu to thwart the agreed replacement by Gantz.

Gantz rightfully fears that Netanyahu could utilize the budget discussions as a pretext for new elections. In order to prevent new elections, politicians have worked out a compromise proposal that should make the impossible possible and prevent the dissolution of parliament.

That compromise is for the government to pass a two-year budget to satisfy Gantz, while parliament would only pass that part that is supposed to be implemented by the end of December. This would give parliament until March to approve the budget for 2021.

Whether the latter can be sufficient to circumvent new elections and sabotage Netanyahu’s option to stay in power is doubtful.

L'articolo Israel’s Coalition Government is Already in Trouble proviene da InsideOver.

2020 continues to be a dramatic year for Israeli politics as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly decided against passing an Israeli state budget by the late-August deadline. This is because the coronavirus could thwart the two-year budget stipulated in the coalition deal he signed up to. Instead, Netanyahu wants a budget that covers the rest of 2020. This conflict has the potential to trigger another set of elections in November.

Netanyahu’s Strategy

Haaretz reported on Wednesday that the Prime Minister intends to create chaos in the coalition to increase support for tearing apart the government.

The current coalition is led by Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party. They were sworn in after three inconclusive elections. The coronavirus pandemic caused the Blue and White leader to break his promise not to join Netanyahu’s government due to the latter’s indictment on corruption charges.

An Election is Still Netanyahu’s Preferred Option

Another reason why the Prime Minister has allegedly decided to seek another set of elections is because of the Jerusalem District Court’s ruling last week that witnesses will start testifying in his criminal trial in January. Apparently Netanyahu worries that he will be barred from serving as Prime Minister while he is on trial.

This is an incredibly risky move should Netanyahu choose to pursue it. He has already held three elections in over a year and neither one of them have improved his electoral fortunes. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister insists that this is still his preferred option and that he has no intention of breaking his rotation agreement that would allow Gantz to become Prime Minister in November 2021.

He may live to regret those words as Israel struggles to tackle the coronavirus pandemic. Opinion polls conducted by The Times of Israel at the end of June found that if the Prime Minister held fresh elections, he would win two more seats, which would take his final total to 38. Netanyahu currently has 36 seats in the Knesset. Meanwhile, the Blue and White Party would collapse to 9 seats. However, these polls were conducted before Israel witnessed an increase in coronavirus cases.

The Coronavirus Has Sparked Anti-Netanyahu Protests

433 Israelis have died of COVID-19 and 23,560 others have recovered from it, but there are still 56,748 confirmed cases. Although Israel has experienced a small number of deaths compared to other nations, Netanyahu’s handling of the virus has sparked protests throughout Israel.

Last Saturday, thousands of demonstrators gathered outside the Prime Minister’s residence in Jerusalem and at a park in Tel Aviv, voicing frustration over the government’s response to a pandemic that has devastated Israel’s economy.

Netanyahu’s government has also been torn between reopening the economy and extending the lockdown. The Prime Minister said that he reopened the economy too soon through late April and early May following the news that Israel experienced 1,000 new coronavirus infections a day in recent weeks, which triggered a broad range of restrictions. Markets, shops and other public venues have closed on weekends, while restaurants have been restricted to take away and delivery.

Israel Cannot Afford to Remain in Lockdown

Netanyahu announced plans to send cash to all Israelis in a bid to quell public anger over the economic effects of the lockdown, but many experts said Israel needs more targeted assistance.

The Israeli Government cannot afford to remain in lockdown forever. The same polls the Times of Israel conducted in June found that 58 percent of people disapproved of Netanyahu’s performance on the economic aspects of COVID-19. With unemployment already a problem in Israel, the Finance Ministry predicts that the economy could contract by 5.9 to 7.2 percent this year and it forecasts budget deficits of 13 to 14.2 percent of GDP. This is an awful time to hold an election.

If the polls are correct, Netanyahu would be able to remove Gantz from his coalition and collaborate with other right-wing parties. But polls are unreliable and an election could be an opportunity for voters to express their dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s handling of the coronavirus in general. He should proceed with caution.

L'articolo Why a November Election is a Risk to Netanyahu proviene da InsideOver.

Israel has launched its new spy satellite Ofek 16 into orbit in an attempt to improve the country’s military reconnaissance. The region remains volatile, particularly after a fire the previous week at an Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz.

Details of the Launch

Against the backdrop of new tensions with Iran, Israel launched a spy satellite into space on Monday, July 6. The Ofek 16 satellite was successfully launched into orbit at 4 a.m. from the Palmachim Air Force Base in central Israel, the Israel Defense Ministry confirmed. Data transmission had already started on schedule. However, several tests are planned before Israel can fully utilize the satellite for its intended purposes.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the successful launch significantly increases Israel’s ability to deal with the country’s adversaries “both nearby and far away”. Meanwhile, current Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz also recognized the launch’s importance by stating that technological superiority and intelligence capabilities were “essential to Israel’s security.” Moreover, Israel would “continue to strengthen and maintain Israel’s capabilities on every front and every location.”

What Does the Satellite Do?

Like various previous models, the spy satellite is intended to contribute to improved military reconnaissance. Amos Jadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, said the use of Ofek 16 provided Israel “special strategic and intelligence capabilities” – skills rather crucial during a time when a possible escalation with Iran is emerging.

Israel is one of only thirteen countries that operate reconnaissance satellites and has worked with several countries on satellite technology, including Italy and France. The head of Israel’s space program, Shlomi Sudari, stated that its satellite network the country now possesses could observe the entire Middle East and beyond. The latter is all the more critical since Iran also successfully launched a spy satellite into orbit in April, after years of unsuccessful attempts.

Although the new satellite’s primary function is likely to monitor Iran and developments in its nuclear and missile programs, defense officials denied any symbolism in the launch, given growing reports that Israel could be responsible for a number of recent explosions in Iran.

Israel has previously proved its ability to penetrate sensitive Iranian facilities, including a 2018 raid in Tehran. Moreover, Israel and the U.S. are also believed to have been responsible for the Stuxnet computer virus that disrupted Iran’s nuclear program a decade ago.

Assessing Tensions With Iran

Only recently, Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi stated that Israel would continue to take any measure necessary to protect itself against the Iranian nuclear program.

If Israel were responsible for the fire in the Natanz nuclear facility, it would mark another in a series of daring strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. The latter would further increase the risk of Iranian retaliation on either Israeli or Western targets. However, Iran’s current situation with a crippled economy and no financial flexibility does not leave them in a promising position. In addition, Iran is experiencing rising domestic tensions against the government and the pandemic, which may prohibit Iran from executing any retaliation at this point, at least not without utilizing a proxy to carry out the attacks. The latter could explain why Teheran has been reluctant to call out Israel for the attack in Natanz publicly. After all, the mullahs would lose face if they accused Israel – which has been Iran’s default modus operandi since the Iranian Revolution – but without the option of retaliation due to the aforementioned factors.

In any case, Israel’s new satellite will provide increased coverage and early warnings of any Iranian activity such as planned Iranian missile launches and tests, and information on activities at sites where components of Iran’s nuclear program are developed and produced. Against Tehran, that has long vowed to eradicate Israel off the map, any form of increased security for Israel is hence positive news.

L'articolo Israel Launches New Spy Satellite Ofek 16 proviene da InsideOver.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to annex parts of the West Bank faces a major hurdle as his coalition partner Defense Minister Benny Gantz continues to waver about the matter. This comes amid growing sentiments against the plan from members of the international community, with countries such as Britain and Germany warning that it goes against the fourth Geneva Convention.

Lack of Action

Although Netanyahu had set a target of July 1 to kickstart the process by having the cabinet debate the matter, the day passed by without any action, further signalling widening rifts in the newly-crafted coalition government.

Ever since venturing into politics Gantz has always pursued a goal of peaceful co-existence of the Israelis and the Palestinians. This totally contradicts Netanyahu who has always used the issue of West Bank annexation to whip up nationalistic emotions among Israelis.

The Trump Admin’s Annexation Plan

When US President Donald Trump’s unveiled his Middle East peace plan that provides the basis for the annexation of West Bank, Israel was preparing to go the polls. It was also the time Netanyahu was under attack from the opposition for contemplating immunity against criminal charges he is facing.

This made many opposition politicians and analysts conclude that Trump’s main intention was to boost chances of Netanyahu’s re-election as Prime Minister. The fact that he invited Netanyahu to the White House for the unveiling of the plan further reinforced this line of argument.

“To unveil such a plan five weeks before an election is very suspicious,” said Avigdor Lieberman the leader of pro Gantz Yisrael Beytenu.” The very timing of it will prevent any serious, in depth discussion of the proposal.”

Although Gantz — who was Netanyahu’s main opponent in the election had also been invited — it was not known whether he would honor the invitation. Sources close to him had even claimed that he felt it was a trap, and was therefore not ready to travel to Washington.

Gantz also feared that Trump was likely to treat him as Netanyahu’s junior, and relegate him to playing a minor role during discussions. “In Blue and White, they fear it will be more political than diplomatic, and that Netanyahu is bringing Gantz to Washington not to praise him, but to diminish him,” said a report by Israel’s Channel 12.

With Netanyahu keen to milk political capital out of the meeting as the champion of Israel’s  security, Gantz had no other option but to travel to Washington. However, Gantz insisted on meeting Trump separately in order not to play second fiddle to Netanyahu. He made it clear that he was going to meet Trump “as the leader of the largest party in Israel.”

Gantz: We Seek ‘A Basis for Progress’ with Palestinians

Unlike Netanyahu, Gantz maintained a reconciliatory tone in his speech after the meeting. In observing that the plan was likely to cause major and painful internal disagreements within Israel he said “I pledge to minimise those disagreements, but to work to make the framework a basis for progress towards an agreed deal with Palestinians and regional states.

It is worth noting that even though Gantz has always championed Israel’s right to exist, he has always been of the opinion that if Israel has to apply its sovereignty over the disputed territories, then it has to be done in a manner that is acceptable to the international community.

Netanyahu’s Perspective

Netanyahu, on the hand, has always been ready to take unilateral step in applying Israel’s sovereignty, even if it means going against the international conventions. What matters most to him is the backing of the US. But with chances of Trump’s reelection looking increasingly slim, he has been pushed into further desperation to implement the plan by all means before US heads to the polls.

But this is being impeded by the fact that he is not in full control of the government. The coronavirus pandemic and the political stalemate  that followed the hotly contested election, forced a coalition of convenience in which him and Gantz are strange bedfellows with conflicting views on the question of annexation.

How Does Gantz See the Situation?

In order not to go against the International community which is opposed to the annexation, and in order not to appear antagonistic against Netanyahu who is pushing for the  annexation as soon as possible, Gantz has been sending mixed signals over the plan.

In the middle of last month Gantz in a meeting with defense officials said he wouldn’t back the annexation of areas with many Palestinian residents in order to avoid friction. He stressed the importance of working with Palestinians in any plan to apply sovereignty.

He made the remarks just days after holding a meeting with Netanyahu and US ambassador over the issue. It was reported that during the meeting the two leaders disagreed strongly over key details of the plan. While Netanyahu insisted on taking unilateral decision to map out the areas that were to be annexed, Gantz was pushed for the consultation of Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan before any action.

Gantz: ‘We Will Not Violate Human Rights’

On June 21, one week before the July 1 date set aside by Netanyahu for the cabinet debate on annexation, Gantz warned Palestinians that Israel would move forward without them if they continue rejecting dialogue. He however, added “We will not take Palestinians into our territory, we will not violate human rights or freedom of movement. We will not endanger any peace treaties.”

Some days later in a conversation with the US ambassador, Gantz said July 1 was not sacred for discussing the annexation of West Bank. According to him there were more important issues to be dealt with such as the coronavirus pandemic. “ What is not corona-related will wait until the day after the virus,” he said.

This effectively ruled out the possibility of holding the cabinet debate on the matter as planned by Netanyahu. This was despite Netanyahu telling members of his party that the cabinet debate did not depend on Gantz’s support.

Serious Setback for Netanyahu

With the two leaders pulling in opposite directions, the US has now decided to suspend talks on annexation of the West Bank, dealing Netanyahu a major blow. According to a report by Maariv, US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman said, “It was decided that the talks would not continue until the partners in the government reach mutual understanding.”

Meanwhile, according to Israel Hayom, Netanyahu told his party that if Gantz thwarts his plans, then he will not hesitate to instigate an early election. A new law passed following the formation of the coalition government early this year, gives Netanyahu the right to dissolve parliament in the first six months of the new government, and without passing the premiership to Gantz.

However Gantz remains unbowed and reiterated his stand recently by saying that although he sees the importance of applying Israel’s sovereignty over West Bank he believes that Israelis and Palestinians should co-exist peacefully.

“The issue of Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria is important,” Gantz said. “But the right formula should be found to take us there.”

L'articolo Gantz Throws Netanyahu’s West Bank Annexation Plan Into Disarray proviene da InsideOver.

Israel has so far emerged mostly unscathed from its brush with COVID-19. While most Western countries suffered massive loss of life and extreme financial damage, Israel has been spared of most of the ordeal. But while the government was perhaps too quick to celebrate its success, the current Israeli crisis has other serious aspects: judicial, political — and pretty soon possibly grave strategic challenges.

Israel’s Battle Against COVID-19

The coronavirus hit European countries such as Italy and Spain, several weeks before it arrived in Israel. This allowed the Israeli government enough time to act effectively. There were other advantages: the Israeli population is relatively young (median age of 30, compared to Italy’s 47) and therefore less prone to serious illness. In addition, the country’s only “gate” to the outside world is the Ben-Gurion Airport, which in fact was almost completely closed by mid-March. Israelis who came home from abroad were instructed to self-quarantine for two weeks.

At the same time, the country entered a five week period of almost complete lockdown. End result? Only 288 deaths and slightly more than 17,000 cases by June 2 – not too high for a country of more than 9 million people.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bragged that foreign leaders frequently called him, seeking advice on how to combat the virus.

Netanyahu was less successful when trying to consolidate an exit strategy, however. Israel, it seems, resumed business a bit too quickly, and may now be facing a spike in new cases. Yet Netanyahu has recently shown less interest. He is preoccupied with his corruption trial — which began, after a two month delay — late last month. The delay, announced by his former Justice Minister because of the health crisis, allowed Netanyahu more time and space for political maneuvering. In fact, the virus has performed a political miracle for the PM: under the guise of an emergency “coronavirus government”, he has managed to convince two of his sworn enemies to join a national unity coalition, which he will lead for at least the next eighteen months.

Is Israel’s Political Chaos Finally Resolved?

After three consecutive elections in less than a year, without a decisive result, Netanyahu was able to split the major opposition party, centrist Blue and White, in Half. Two former Army chiefs of staff, Benny Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazy, decided to join Netanyahu, forswearing previous promises to never sit with a “corrupt politician facing trial”. Their former political partners chose to remain in the opposition, while many of the party’s voters, avidly anti-Netanyahu, felt betrayed. Gantz is now an “Alternate Prime Minister” (a new title) and is expected to replace Netanyahu by the end of 2021.

But according to the polls most Israelis, including Netanyahu’s own voters, don’t believe the PM will stand by his commitments. Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his party are working hard to undermine the judicial system, while using the COVID-19 crisis to erode some of the Israeli democracy’s basic principles. According to some of his critics, Netanyahu has taken a page from the notebook of his close friend, Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orban. On the first day of the PM’s trial, last week, Israelis watched in disbelief as their leader convened a press conference in court, directly attacking the state’s Attorney General for indicting him.

Economic Pressure Increases

All this turmoil is increased by economic hardship and worries. More than one million Israelis — over 20% of the workforce — are now unemployed. The country’s GDP shrunk by 7% during the year’s first quarter. Many industries, in particular tourism and flights which relay on contacts with the outside world, will remain largely inactive for at least a year. And yet, Netanyahu and Gantz have established Israel’s biggest government ever, including new portfolios which would put even Monty Python’s Ministry of Silly Walks to shame.

Trouble still lurks in the background. For one thing, the PM has announced his intention to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank in co-ordination with the Trump Administration. Presumably, this will help Netanyahu consolidate his right-wing base during his trial. It will similarly help President Donald Trump with his devout Christian supporters, which include millions of fervent evangelicals who will back Israel right or wrong come election-time this November.

But annexation may have serious implications for Israel’s relationships with the Palestinian Authority, Jordan and the Gulf States. It could very possibly lead to violence in the West Bank and endanger Israel’s long standing peace agreement with Jordan. Israel’s security apparatus has warned Netanyahu of such a scenario, so far to no avail.
Meanwhile, Israel and Iran have recently swapped blows in the cyber dimension. At first, in late April, Iran apparently tried to attack Israel’s water infrastructure, but the attempt was thwarted. In early May, Iran encountered a massive cyber-attack which paralyzed activities at the economically key Bander Abbas port in southern Iran for a few days. This may not be the end of it, yet. With or without the coronavirus, the Middle East is likely to be on the verge of quite a dramatic summer

L'articolo Israel and COVID-19 proviene da InsideOver.

The president of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas has threatened that Palestine will no longer be committed to all security agreements it has signed with Israel and America. The shocking announcement came just two days after the unveiling of Israel’s new government following a deal between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz.

Abbas: Agreements With Israel and USA ‘Are Absolved as of Today’

“The Palestine Liberation Organisation and the State of Palestine are absolved as of today, of all the agreements and understandings with the American and Israeli governments and of all the obligations based on these understandings and agreements, including the security one,” Abbas said.

Abbas’s was protesting against the impending annexation of the West Bank under a plan drafted by US President Donald Trump’s administration. Just before his swearing in, Netanyahu had announced his intention of extending Israel sovereignty over settlements on the West Bank terming it a “glorious chapter in the history of Zionism.”

What Agreements Does Palestine Have With Israel?

Palestine has signed several agreements with Israel. These include the Oslo Accords, Hebron Agreement and Wye River Memorandum. These agreements have established the security parameters, cooperation frameworks and the civilian and security administrative divisions between Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

The Oslo Accords were a set of two agreements signed by the late Yasser Arafat, former leader of Palestine Liberation Organisation and late Israeli leader Yitzhak Rabin. They were signed in Washington, DC in 1993 and in Egypt in 1995. The accords led to the PLO recognizing the State of Israel in return of Palestinians having some increased control over the occupied territories.

While the Oslo Accords have largely been credited with quelling extreme hostilities that had earlier existed between the Palestinians and the Israelis, long lasting peace is yet to be achieved.

The Key Importance of the Hebron Agreement

The Hebron Agreement was signed on January 17, 1997. The signatories were General Dan Shamron representing Prime Minister Netanyahu and Saeb Erekat representing Yasser Arafat. The protocol provided for the deployment of IDF troops in Hebron, the only major West Bank city not fully transferred to the Palestinians.

Under the protocol, Hebron was divided into Area H-1 and Area-H-2. The Palestine Police assumed responsibilities in Area H-1 while Israel retained powers and responsibilities for internal security and public order in Area H-2.

In summary, the Hebron Agreement provided the security, coordination, measures and arrangements to implement the Oslo II Accord of 1995 that sought to reduce points of friction between Israel and Palestine by giving broadening Palestinian self-government in the West Bank, while at the same time protecting Israel’s vital interests, particularly security interests.

The Wye River Memorandum

The Wye River Memorandum was signed in October of 1998 by Netanyahu representing Israel and Arafat representing the Palestinian Authority. Its aim was to facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli forces from parts of West Bank and the resumption of the implementation of the Oslo II Accord.

Although in the past Abbas had made several statements threatening to pull out of the agreements, he never made good his threats. However, there is a strong likelihood that this time he might take some steps to undermine the agreements.

‘Security Coordination With Israel is No More’

To prove this, the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shttayyeh early this week directed the cabinet to start implementing Abbas’s announcement.

“Security cooperation with the United States is no more. Security coordination with Israel is no more. We are going to maintain public order and the rule of law alone,” Shttayyeh said

The Israelis, Palestinian Authority and America have always shared intelligence information to counter terrorist activities by radical Palestinian groups. Without such cooperation, Israel will be vulnerable to groups such as the Hamas who have constantly fired rockets into its territory.

The friction between Palestinian and Israeli forces is also bound to increase as both sides stop to cooperate in providing security in the disputed areas.

Fear of Increased Violence and Clashes

Citing Israel military sources, this week one Israel media company confirmed that the cooperation has indeed stopped. Israeli officials speaking to the UK Independent confirmed this saying they feared the halting of cooperation could lead to increased violence and clashes between soldiers from both sides.

But there are also others who feel that Abbas is only issuing threats to put pressure on Israel and won’t take any extreme step that could jeopardize his image and also negatively impact Palestine.

“Political statements of this magnitude could be very useful if they fulfil a domestic or international function deemed in the national interest of the issuing party,” said Khalil Jahsan Executive Director Arab Center Washington.
According to him anything short of that could be quite damaging and self defeating to the Palestinian Authority. “Issuing tough statements is vastly easier than implementing the plans outlined in them,” Jahsan said.

The main question is whether Palestinian Authority would be prepared to deal with Israeli retaliation such as refusal to recognize the Palestinian Authority Government which came into existence following the signing of Oslo Accords.

In the opinion of Jonathan Kuttab, a non-resident Fellow at the Arab Center Washington, “The Palestinian Authority is intricately tied to Israel in numerous ways.” Therefore dissolving the agreements is in effect dissolving itself since its very existence is based on those agreements, according to Kuttab’s analysis.

Another impediment to Palestinian Authority disengaging itself from the agreements is its dependence on Israel to meet some of its obligations . As stipulated in the Paris Protocol of 1994, Israel collects taxes on its behalf of Palestine in West Bank and Gaza.

According to Reuters the tax transfers makes up about 50% of the Palestinian Authority’s budget. Last year alone Israel handed around $430 million to the Authority. This money is needed to pay wages and to provide basic services, raising major questions about what happens if there is an interruption to the flow of these funds.

L'articolo Implication of Palestine’s Threat to Cancel its Agreements With Israel proviene da InsideOver.

After more than twelve months, Israel’s Knesset has sworn in its new government with 73 of 120 votes in favor. It will first be led by Benjamin Netanyahu for 18 months before Benny Gantz will replace him.

Introducing the Massive New Cabinet

Before the vote, Netanyahu presented his new cabinet, which, with 36 ministers, constitutes the largest in the country’s history. The reason for the bloated government is the problematic government negotiations between Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’ Blue and White, during which all sides sought to secure as many offices as possible. So much so that the personal details for the cabinet had recently delayed the government’s inauguration.

“The people seek a unified government, and that’s what the people get today,” Netanyahu said at the beginning of the parliamentary session. In addition to Likud, Blue and White, and partners from the religious and fundamentalist camp, the HaAvoda Labor Party will also be part of the new government. These compromises, Netanyahu continued, were inevitable since another election would have been devastating for the country. Gantz, meanwhile, stated during his speech in the Knesset that the days when governments represented only half of the population were over and that the country had opted for unity, which was precisely the new path that was now being taken.

The New Government’s Top Priorities

One of the main priorities of the new government will be the implementation of President Trump’s proposed Middle East peace plan – which provides for an independent Palestinian state – but also for Israel to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank.  It was time to apply Israeli law and open another glorious chapter in the history of Zionism, Netanyahu said regarding the government’s vision. However, how the peace process will proceed is more open than ever after Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas ceased all relations with Israel and the United States on Wednesday.

In three parliamentary elections since April, 2019, there had been no clear result for a political camp, also because Gantz previously rejected a coalition with Netanyahu unequivocally. Two weeks ago, however, against the background of the COVID-19 crisis and the effects on Israel, Netanyahu and Gantz finally agreed on a unity government.

The Schedule of Leadership

Netanyahu will initially remain prime minister, while Gantz will initially become minister of defence. Gabi Ashkenazi (Blue and White) becomes foreign minister, and the previous foreign minister Israel Katz (Likud) becomes finance minister in the new cabinet. Gantz’s previous office, President of the Knesset, will be conducted out by Yariv Levin (Likud).

Since Netanyahu’s power bloc consists of several smaller parties, he was only able to award a limited number of cabinet ministries to senior Likud representatives. To work around this problem and to reassure angry party members, Netanyahu introduced several new ministries. Including one for community development, one for settlement matters and one for higher education and water resources.

Naturally, these new ministries sparked criticism from the opposition. The prospective opposition leader Yair Lapid said that the artificial creation of offices had caused a loss of “trust in the Israeli public”. Besides, COVID-19 was an excuse for Netanyahu and his “corrupt party.” Israel’s emergency government was nothing more than “the largest and most wasteful in the country’s history,” Lapid concluded. Jesch has reason to be frustrated. His party was Yesh Atid had been an ally of Blue and White until Gantz recanted his promise and agreed with Netanyahu.

Netanyahu himself has been at the head of the government of Israel for longer than any other politician. He was head of government for the first time in 1996 and has been in office for three consecutive terms since 2009. However, at the end of May, Netanyahu will have to answer to the court for allegations of – inter alia – corruption and fraud. In the event of a guilty verdict, the government would thus end early. However, the latter is currently not to be expected, since Netanyahu’s lawyers are likely to ensure that the process is protracted for the time being.

L'articolo Israel Has Sworn in its New Government proviene da InsideOver.