Over the weekend, Iraq’s parliament began the process of electing a new leader following the resignation of the country’s former Prime Minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi. There is severe unrest spreading throughout the nation as security forces killed 45 civilians who were protesting around Nasiriyah on Thursday.

Many demonstrators are angry that Iran continues to influence Iraqi politics. Last Wednesday, government forces showed brute force following the firebombing of the Iranian consulate in Najaf.

When the US liberated Iraq from Saddam Hussein in 2003, they intended to introduce democracy to the nation. With the country divided into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish sects, Iraq’s governance had been determined along sectarian lines. Its institutions were used as fiefdoms by ministers whose political allegiances has often transcended loyalty to the state.

This has resulted in corruption and nepotism throughout the nation’s public sector. Many Iraqis have been robbed of opportunities since the nation’s oil wealth was plundered. Youths are angry that state revenues have been looted, leaving them disenfranchised. 200,000 people have been demonstrating in Baghdad and other cities ever since.

Disenchantment towards Iran has been widespread among many different sectors of Iraq’s population. Tribal leaders have concentrated on murdering security forces in the wake of the killings, which they say were orchestrated by Iranian officials who have played a crucial role in the crackdown. Qassem Suleimani is an example of an Iranian general who initiated a brutal response that began a month ago.

Furthermore, Tehran has been playing an influential role in Iraq’s affairs since the US withdrawal of 2011. The Guardian reports that the Islamic Republic is concerned about Hadi al-Ameri, the leader of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMF), which were formed to defeat the Islamic State, becoming a potential successor to Mahdi.

As the Brookings Institute suggests, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who founded the PMF, cannot dissolve the organisation because doing so would spark a public backlash that could undermine Iraq’s Shia establishment. Although they are loyal to the Iraqi state, there are groups within the PMF who are beholden to Tehran.

US President Donald Trump should be very concerned about Iran’s influence over Iraq. The 2015 Iran Deal Barack Obama concluded failed to tackle Tehran’s interference in neighbouring countries’ elections. Since Trump has scrapped the agreement, all the nations involved in implementing the 2015 deal have failed to negotiate a new one. But the situation in Iraq is an opportunity for Western leaders to curb Iran’s electoral influence.

Iraq’s army is not strong enough to fight Iran-sponsored terrorist groups like Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which has attacked US and Iraqi personnel and civilians since they were founded in 2003. Sistani is Iraq’s best hope of resisting Iran’s influence. He successfully combated US interference in Iraq’s new constitution and ensured his country was governed by an elected assembly instead of Washington-backed elites.

If Trump is serious about thwarting Iran’s dominance, he has a responsibility to protect Iraq from its neighbour. US troops must be temporarily deployed to Baghdad to contain Iran’s proxies, which now control places like Kirkuk.

But there are other actions the US can take to contain Tehran that do not require military intervention. They could help the Iraqi government allocate $1 billion to the PMF from its national budget, but restrict their access to the billions of dollars the international community contributes towards the reconstruction of Iraq. They could also help the PMF shape Iraq’s political system according to their ideologies.

Maybe the US could also work alongside Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shia Iraqi cleric who visited Iran last month and has been a longstanding opponent of Iranian interference. Whilst he is opposed to US dominance in Iraq as well, US veteran Michael D. Sullivan wrote in Foreign Policy that he is the only politician who understands America can help strengthen his country’s security forces. Following Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation, he could play an influential role in Iraqi politics.

Trump should take Iranian influence in Iraq seriously, and he has plenty of options as to how he can tackle this crisis.

L'articolo America and Iran’s Influence on Iraq’s Elections Amid Civil Unrest proviene da InsideOver.

The month of October 2019 starts stained with blood for Iraq. After decades of regional conflicts, dictatorship, two US invasions, foreign occupations and a sanguine civil war that laboriously ended with the fall of the Islamic State group in the 2017 recapture of Mosul, Iraq finally believed itself equal to resume normal life.

Yet, as late as Monday, October 7, casualties resulting from clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces had reportedly reached over 100 deaths in a week. The demonstrations kicked off in the capital Baghdad on Tuesday, October 1, and have since swept over the country to its oil-rich south parts.

The United Nations called for an end to the “senseless loss of life” on Monday, as medics and police reports, gathered by Reuters since the beginning of the protests, showed that the death toll rose to 110. Government sources, however, said on the same day only 104 died in the clashes and over 6000 were injured.

The Iraqi security forces were caught off guard and heavy-handedly reacted to the sudden unrest – perhaps due to a rarity of peaceful protests in a country that remains mainly war-torn. On many occasions, tear gas and live ammunition were fired at the protesters, flaring up tensions in both sides.

The interior ministry denied “directly” shooting at the demonstrators, and rather accused “infiltrators” who it said have caused casualties among both the protesters and security forces.

The President of Iraq, Barham Salih, said on Monday that authorities were still going through “investigation procedures to find out the perpetrators behind the violence against the protesters,” according to the Iraqi News Agency.

“Our security forces, in its various forms, must defend and support the people,” the president also said on television. “They must firmly confront those who violated the constitution by attacking citizens and the security forces, and terrorizing the media.”

Yet many reporters said they had witnessed, besides tear gas and live fire, the targeting of protesters by security forces snipers who opened fire from rooftops.

The protests unexpectedly turned into the worst violence Iraq has to face since the defeat of the Islamic State group two years ago. It is also the biggest challenge to the government of Adil Abul-Mahdi, Iraq’s prime minister, who took office in October last year precisely.

Protesters say Abdul-Mahdi failed to meet their demands, as unemployment and corruption among the leadership swelled amid long-awaited promises. The unrest was organized on social media, and remains popular and without formal leadership. Its non-belonging to any sectarian or doctrinal movement —as both Shiite and Sunnite, among others, partake in it— also draws from its spontaneity.

The protesters say they only reacted to the country’s deteriorating economy, unemployment and poor public services, as even water and electricity remain scarce in some parts of the country.

In reaction, the government imposed a curfew on Thursday, October 3, and resorted to cutting the Internet in hopes of effectively moderating the protests. The curfew was lifted on Saturday, October 5 —as security forces still repress the demonstrations – but the Internet and social media use remain largely shutdown, although intermittently.

“It has now been over 100 hours since Iraq imposed a near-total Internet shutdown amid widespread protests,” NetBlocks, an organization monitoring cybersecurity and the governance of the internet, reported on Sunday, October 6.

The following day, the Internet was restored for a few hours, and users uploaded footage of the crackdown on social media, before all service went down again.

In a phone call with Adil Abdul-Mahdi, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed disquietude but said he trusted and supported Abdul-Mahdi’s government to restore security, according to a statement released by the office of the prime minister. Abdul-Mahdi said life was to return to normal.

On Saturday, October 5, Iraqi ministers gathered in a council that established a list of initiatives aimed at resolving the demonstration’s issues.

The list included allocating land and subsidized housing to low-income families and, among others, providing 150,000 unemployed citizens with a monthly stipend worth 170,000 Iraqi dinars —about 147 dollars— during three months.

But, to “ensure equality and speed of completion,” the government said applications for the stipends and other services listed by the council —such as volunteering to the army— must be filled online, whereas the Internet remains highly restricted to even middle-class citizens.

L'articolo Iraqi Government Stands Clumsy and Disconcerted As Protests Turn Tragic proviene da InsideOver.

Under curfew and a virtual internet blackout, Iraq has been a country in turmoil over the past few days. Details from within Iraq have been rather sketchy, as the ongoing and widening revolt against the government of a country that seems to be at a crucial turning point, gains more momentum. With over 100 civilians killed and several hundreds, some claim up to 4000, wounded by the heavy-handed response to the demonstrations that appear to be spreading like wildfires, the outcome of the rebellion of Iraqi masses marching against social grievances, corruption and squandering the national wealth of one of the richest Arab nations, remains an unsolved mystery.

Hunger, or Something Bigger behind the Revolt?

The post-Saddam era in Iraq has been marred by unprecedented levels of corruption at the highest levels, and massive economic hardships for ordinary Iraqis. This was aggravated by years of a costly military campaign against ISIS, after the terrorist organization took control of large sways of Iraq’s territories including the country’s second-largest city, Mosul in June 2014, with catastrophic consequences. Many senior government officials and lawmakers have been accused of siphoning off public money, forming their own mafia-type militias, accepting hefty bribes, and unfairly awarding contracts in state institutions among various forms of official corruption.

Blame for the unrest which started on the eve of the Shi’ite pilgrimage to Al Najaf Al Shareef, which in recent years has drawn some 20 million worshipers,10 times bigger than that of Sunni Muslims to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, was put by a senior Iranian cleric on the US and Israel, claiming they wanted to severely undermine the pilgrimage to the Shiites’ holiest site. Whereas, a prominent follower of Iraq’s influential Shiite leader, Muqtada Al Sadr laid the blame on the current unrest as a ‘ Revolution of Hunger’. Every year, pilgrims march for days on foot across southern Iraq in the world’s biggest annual gathering.

Riots and disorder have already affected the numbers of pilgrims this year, with some countries advising their citizens to stay away. The protests could easily grow much bigger and more effective should it receive the official support of Al Sadr, who leads the largest opposition bloc in parliament, enjoys strong ties with Saudi Arabia, and has long denounced corruption of Iraq’s elite. His faction’s MPs are boycotting the parliament’s session called to find a way out of the current crisis.

On his part, the Speaker of Iraq’s parliament has labelled the protests a “revolution” against corruption, urging protesters for calm and proposing reforms such as better state housing support for poor people and ensuring Iraqi graduates are included on lucrative foreign projects for the development of Iraq’s energy sector.

So far, Muqtada has not called upon his many million followers to join the protesters on the streets, a blessing in disguise for Adel Abdul Mahdi’s bewildered government. Mahdi pledged reforms but said there was no “magic solution” to Iraq’s problems. He insisted politicians were aware of the suffering of the masses: “We do not live in ivory towers – we walk among you in the streets of Baghdad,” Mahdi reiterated. Meanwhile, Muqtada Al Sadr has asked the Iraqi government to step down and for new elections to be held soon. A statement issued by his office called for people to “Respect the blood of Iraq through the resignation of the government, and the preparation for early elections to be overseen by international monitors.”

Violence Strikes at Heartland of Iraqi Shi’ites

The current unrest which was sparked off in the mainly Shi’ite south, but quickly spread out to other parts of the country, was the worst since the popular uprising against ISIS some two years ago. Last Friday witnessed the highest number of casualties, with the toll over three days only, was 65 killed and 192 wounded across Iraq as the revolt intensified.

Iraq’s most influential cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, whom I happened to interview twice, although he generally prefers to stay away from everyday politics, expressed his sorrow and sadness at the loss of innocent lives over the past few days, blaming the Iraqi government in a letter read out by his representative:  “It is sorrowful that there have been so many deaths, casualties and destruction…The government and political sides have not answered the demands of the people to fight corruption or achieved anything on the ground…Parliament holds the biggest responsibility for what is happening,”  maintained Sistani in his letter.

Close to the Brink of the Abyss

Escalating violence and widening demonstrations have caused the Iraqi government to impose curfews win several cities. Authorities blocked roads into the capital from the north and northeast sent reinforcements to Baghdad’s densely populated eastern suburbs and military convoys were dispatched to Nasiriya. Building up popular resentment, mounting economic pressure, official corruption- widely believed to be behind the current revolt- along with conflicting national, regional and international interests in Iraq – mainly those of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US- could easily push the post-Saddam settlement in Iraq to the brink of the abyss.

Nothing threatens the civil peace, stability and security of a nation more than violent and widespread popular revolts.  Iraq, with a history of wars, famine, destruction and tyranny, seems extremely vulnerable at this turning point in its modern times. Unless an urgent solution is worked out, the unrest is set to spread out of control, inflicting more destruction and bloodshed for the people of Iraq who have had more than enough of all of that and more, over the past few decades. Could it be the above-mentioned reasons, or a new silent US-Iran proxy war behind the current uprising, Iraqis themselves are poised to foot the pricey bill.

L'articolo Will Iraq’s Revolution Spread Beyond Control? proviene da InsideOver.