It is exactly five years since a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates intervened militarily in Yemen. But despite the number of casualties the prospect of peace has remained elusive. The war has worsened in what has been described by the UN as the world’s largest humanitarian catastrophe.

Now the War in Yemen Could Be Close to Ending

Now there are reports that Saudi Arabia is looking for a way out of the crisis after realizing that it is fighting a losing battle. What makes the conflict even more complicated is that it is part of a regional power struggle between Shia-ruled Iran and Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia who have been using proxy militia groups in Yemen to undermine each other.

Saudi Arabia and its allies have accused Iran of providing financial and military support to the Houthis, something Iran has denied. Among those factors often mentioned as having played a great role in organizing Iranian-backed proxy militia groups in Yemen was General Qasem Soleimani of Iran’s Quds force who was killed in a US drone strike this past January.

Arab Spring Origins of the Yemeni Conflict

The conflict in Yemen can be traced to the Arab spring that forced former President Abdullah Saleh to step down and hand over power to his deputy Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi in 2011. Because of the ensuing state of anarchy, Hadi was faced with a number of challenges, among them the high rate of unemployment, insecurity, corruption, food shortages and separatist movements.

The Houthis — who are mainly made up of Zaidi Shia Muslims — took advantage of the growing dissent against Hadi’s government to establish their control over Yemen’s Saada province. Sunni Muslims in the region who were concerned about the economic situation joined hands with the Houthis and together they took over the capital of Sanaa.

Saleh’s Attempt to Return to Power and Saudi Arabia’s Entrance into the Conflict

Former President Saleh in a bid to return to power entered in an agreement of convenience with his erstwhile rivals the Houthis to take over the entire country and depose Hadi. However this backfired when he was killed by the Houthis in December of 2017

Concerned about the deteriorating security situation, Saudi Arabia and eight other, mostly Sunni Arab countries intervened in Yemen on March 26, 2015, in a bid to defeat the Houthis. More broadly, they wished to stop the influence of Iran and to restore the leadership of Hadi who had fled to exile.

The coalition was backed by Western forces mainly those of US, UK and France who provided it with intelligence information and fuel. Initially Saudi Arabia estimated that the whole operation would last several weeks at most, but five years later the battle is still raging with the number of casualties increasing daily.

Yemen’s Catastrophic Death Toll and War Crimes

In 2019, The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (TACLED), an organization which uses real-time data analysis source on political violence and protests around the world, stated there were more than 100,000 deaths in Yemen since 2015, including over 12,000 civilians killed in direct attacks.

“The Saudi-led coalition and its allies remain responsible for the highest civilian fatalities from direct targeting , with over 8000 since 2015,” said the organization. “Around 67 % of all reported civilian fatalities during this period have been caused by coalition.” It also accused Houthis and their allies for being responsible for over 2,000 reported civilian fatalities from direct targeting since 2015.

During the same period, Human Rights Watch documented a total of 90 unlawful coalition airstrikes which hit homes, markets, hospitals, schools and mosques. One of them was the bombing of a wedding, killing 22 people, including 8 children in 2018. Another documented case, was that of a bomb that struck a school bus killing at least 26 children and wounding 19 more in the busy market of Dhahyan.

“The Saudi-led coalitions attack on a bus full of young boys adds to its already gruesome track record of killing civilians at weddings, funerals, hospitals and schools in Yemen,” said Mr Bill Van Esveld, Human Rights Watch senior children researcher. The organization also accused the Houthis of firing indiscriminately into Saudi Arabia, and using landmines that have killed and maimed civilians and disrupted their lives.

Saudi Arabia’s Invitation to Warring Parties to Come to the Negotiating Table

But in what could be an attempt by Saudi Arabia to exit the conflict, the Kingdom has invited members of the Houthis and the Yemeni recognied government to peace negotiations. This comes a month after Houthis took control of the capital Sanaa and deposed the internationally-recognized Hadi government.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi ambassador to Yemen Mohamed al-Jaber said the proposal for talks to end the five year war remain on the table despite a flare up in violence. “We are committed to de-escalation,” al-Jaber said, adding that “we are ready to have cease fire in all Yemeni territory if they accept it.”

The Houthis have not yet responded to the invitation.

“The standing invitation to the Houthis to meet face to face for talks after provocative attacks this weekend suggests the Saudis desperately want to end the war in Yemen,” said Elana DeLozier, a Yemen expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Why Does Saudi Arabia Want to End the War Now?

The Gulf Kingdom is believed to have felt even been more isolated after its allies in the conflict such United Arab Emirates scaled down their military presence last year to avoid further losses. A Western official familiar with the Kingdom’s policy in Yemen told the Middle East Monitor that “Like the UAE, the Saudis want to say this war is over for us, but the situation on the ground is difficult. “

Thomas Juneau, an associate professor at Ottawa University in Canada informed the paper further that, “Riyadh wants to reduce the costs of its intervention in Yemen after it has realized that it cannot afford the war’s financial and military costs.”

Amid the growing number of war casualties, Yemen is now faced with the coronavirus pandemic which could result in even more deaths because of the fragile security situation and the weak health system. The country has 3,500 medical facilities but only half are still functioning. This means that much of the country’s population of around 20 million have no access to adequate healthcare .

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Though hardly ever prosperous and stable, the last five years or so have been particularly harsh on Yemen where a civil war has ensued between the Saudi-supported government and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. 

The resulting violence has taken over 100,000 lives and displaced millions, largely attributable to ruthless airstrikes by Saudi Arabia, creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Attempts at diplomacy have been scarce and half-hearted but the end of 2019 offered some reprieve to Yemenis following a scale-down in the war. 

However, only a few months after relative calm following the first Houthi (or possibly Iranian) airstrike that hit Saudi Arabia in its jugular vein — oil — and then the Riyadh agreement which tried to mend the differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and it’s back to business as usual in Yemen: horrific war.

Conflict is Re-Intensifying in Yemen

Building up since late January, the conflict has been intensifying with each passing day with close to a hundred fighters from both sides killed in just the last two weeks. This death toll included an attack on Yemeni defence minister which took the lives of his six guards, which came just a day after battle near the port of Hodeidah that killed 18. 

Since the attack on Aramco’s oil facility at Abqaiq — which Houthis claimed responsibility for but the Kingdom blamed on Iran — Saudi Arabia had gone a little under the radar, toning down its aggression by a notch or two. But of late, things seem to have changed as the conflict in Yemen escalates and airstrikes resumed. 

US Support Encourages Riyadh

Much of Saudi Arabia’s aggression is thanks to the confidence boost Saudis received after the US increased its military presence both in the Kingdom and around the region after taking out Iranian General Qasem Solemani. And that certainly looked like the case too when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Saudi Arabia on Feb 21 and discussed the rise in conflict in Yemen with his hosts, including the king, crown prince and the deputy defense minister. 

In a show of strength and cooperation with Riyadh, Pompeo also touched down at Prince Sultan Airbase where some 2,500 American troops are stationed, signalling that Washington stands strong with its allies. The message was heard clearly in Sanaa and Tehran. 

Meanwhile, Ambassador Abizaid talked about the threat to Saudi territory from Houthi rockets, which he traced back to Iran. “We’ve just recently interdicted two dhows down there filled with Iranian-produced equipment that is being used by the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia.  So I think it’s really important for us to understand who is the aggressor in the region, and it’s no doubt it’s the Iranians,” he said on Feb. 20 in a press briefing. 

“…a lot of people don’t understand there’s been an awful lot of missile strikes that have been supplied by missiles, supplied by the IRGC Qods Force launched from Yemen, 400 strikes, as a matter of fact, on – about – on Saudi Arabia,” the ambassador continued.

And just like that, he put the onus of responsibility on Iran giving clean chit to the Saudis in Yemen’s theater of war. 

The Multi Polar Yemen Conflict

Adding another layer of complexity to the conflict is the internal divide between the coalition. Where Saudi Arabia has its weight behind the Hadi government, the UAE is supporting separatists in the south. And despite their common animosity with the Houthis, the two haven’t always been able to see eye to eye. 

The Riyadh Agreement, signed in November 2019, was a major step to bridge those differences but a missile attack in Marib on Jan. 18 that killed 118 men  has cast doubts on its sustainability. So far the two Arab states have done just enough to keep the coalition alive, intervening in time before things go out of control. However, the window of opportunity might be closing. Unless a more comprehensive pact, with a streamlined execution timeline is framed, Yemen could very well see a many-sided and intensified war with strings pulled by three regional capitals.

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The Arab Spring of 2010 – 2011 has not rolled on to summer days for Yemen. Now a war-torn nation, Yemen is the victim of both weak internal politics as well as external meddling. Prompted by the Spring unrest in many parts of the Islamic world, Yemen in 2011 experienced a “transition” from the stale, authoritarian presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who handed over his rule to his then deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

Although the flimsiest of concessions – as opposed to a wholesale renewal of government based on multiparty elections – it seemed the civil transfer of power was good enough for Yemen’s people, and it would enable the country to go forward with higher hopes. The incoming Hadi, however, was quickly beset by southern separatists’ aspirations, persistent loyalty among the military top brass towards Saleh, ongoing corruption, unemployment and food scarcity, as well as sporadic jihadist attacks.

Today, Yemen is a country tarnished throughout by civil war, with Saleh’s old enemies – the Houthi movement that fights for control by the country’s Zaidi Shia Muslim minority – having taken control of the north with relative ease. The Houthi’s stronghold was always the Saada province, and the movement now controls it, along with several surrounding areas.

As Hadi’s inability to address Yemen’s affairs grew more apparent, the Houthi’s popular appeal grew, and the movement attracted both Shia and Sunni Muslim residents’ sympathies. Popular support due to lingering dissatisfaction – combined with a weak and remote government – saw fighting erupt, enabling a Houthi coup in late 2014. The capital city Sanaa also fell to rebel control in 2015, while Hadi was forced into exile. Both Houthi aggression as well as variably substantiated allegations of Yemeni military leaders – in cahoots with erstwhile president Saleh – supporting such actions, ensured Hadi’s departure into exile, leaving behind a torn government, and a people in crisis.

Yemen’s internal strife exacerbated from the outside

The current internecine stalemate has wrought havoc on the nation’s food supplies, bringing many to the brink of starvation all over the country. For many Yemeni families, feeding their children, as well as accessing needed medical care, are evaporating hopes. Malnutrition is rife in some areas, in a country that was never a bread basket to begin with. The current hostilities have interrupted Yemen’s ports, the food supplies that typically flowed from these coastal regions, as well as many citizens’ ability to plant and manage a seasonal crop.

Exacerbating the hardship for Yemeni’s are the various players forcing their own interests in the region, those who have latched onto fragmented Yemen with fervour. Neighbouring (Sunni) Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition of neighbouring states in offensives against the Houthi encampments, with Saudi jets frequently bombing targets in the north country. Hospitals and schools too have been destroyed, and aid agencies have repeatedly condemned the targeted destruction of civilian installations. Millions of Yemen’s children have been forced to abandon their education.

Although the coalition’s air and ground actions, as well as the naval blockade still in place along the coastline, are alleged to be in keeping with UN Charter articles, critics have disputed this, and pointed to the real ramifications for common Yemenis. Widespread criticism of the coalition’s efforts have centered more specifically on those of Saudi Arabia, accused of seeking particularly the collapse of any Shia Muslim movement on its borders, rather than any egalitarian or democratic end result. With the vast southern coastal stretch also broadly yet sparsely dotted with Al Qaeda operatives, common Yemenis seem trapped within their own borders.

Most painfully, all parties in the Yemeni war appear to be accepting civilian casualties with a new disregard for non-combatant human life. The war is being waged on a new low as regards the safety of civilians, and their current often desperate needs, with alarming statistics of civilian deaths now commonplace.

To date, the Houthi movement remains in control of the territory they originally conquered, while the coalition partners, in conjunction with many European nations’ support, are hoping for a greater, final offensive to restore the erstwhile government of Hadi.

Notwithstanding over 18,000 air raids by Saudi jets, the coalition remains unconvinced that a ground force offensive would be able to recapture Sanaa, or any of the terrain Houthi rebels currently control. Iran – Saudi relations are at an all-time low, and Iran is seen as the Houthi movement’s principal benefactor, although its ability to arm and supply rebel forces is intermittently hamstrung by current monitoring.

Amidst all of the carnage, Yemen’s children are dying

Not only have over 80,000 people – civilians and combatants – died in the conflict, over two million children are at risk of dying from conditions brought on by severe malnutrition. Millions of Yemenis are on the move, having fled their homes for areas away from conflict hot spots, typically finding themselves cut off from conventional food supplies or healthcare services of any kind when they arrive.

Children are paying the heaviest price, according to UNICEF and other agencies doing relief work in the country. Poverty in Yemen was a social scourge even before the Arab Spring, and has simply increased under the current internecine warfare.

The war has dramatically worsened Yemen’s humanitarian situation, resulting in a full-blown catastrophe, which some agencies have called genocide. All warring parties are gripped by the desire for military conquest, while peace talks – and the nation’s hungry population – lie forgotten. Reporters on the ground regularly file reports of civilian installations being bombed by Saudi jets. Aid agencies are hampered by Yemen’s geography too, with an entire northern border running alongside Saudi Arabia, and the entire southern coast variably beset with foreign naval warships policing the seas.

In spite of such difficulties, prominent agencies are active on the ground in Yemen, but they face a daunting task. Not only are supplies often lost, curtailed or simply irregular, the theft of food aid is being used as a tool of war, often in an attempt to weaken Houthi resistance. The Houthi rebels too, frequently steal food donations that they then distribute only to those who express wholesale support for the movement. Civilians pay the heaviest toll, as the warring parties in this conflict have made food scarcity an offensive tactic.

Millions of children face malnourishment in 2020

As fighting intensifies, humanitarian organisations are at risk of succumbing to the carnage and being forced to retreat. Recent attacks in December 2019 on specifically aid agencies’ encampments have alarmed the UN, while agency workers on the ground say that the real victims will be the Yemeni people. As the war drags on, agencies are mostly in agreement that more than half the population will need food aid to avoid malnutrition or outright starvation in the coming months.

Never an agriculturally giving land, failed or absent crops unsupported by imports make the threat of famine engulfing Yemen a looming probability. Now in winter, if the region is at all impacted by climate change this coming summer season, aid workers fear the worst if the scant rainfall eludes farmers altogether. Caught between the internal conflict and an average annual rainfall of just 127mm, failed summer rains could well prove to be the last straw that propels millions into starvation.

More than any other recent crisis, Yemen’s humanitarian disaster has focused a spotlight on humanitarian aid – food and medical supplies – in terms of how it is dispatched, distributed and ultimately consumed. Although the UN raised an amount of some $3 billion that was needed to address malnutrition and starvation in Yemen in 2018 – 2019, it has been criticised by potential recipients for allegedly allowing the Houthi rebels to distribute food. Most likely a marriage of convenience, it seems at times that Houthi “oversight” and “distribution” is the best aid agencies can hope for. Stories of rebels confiscating food or selling it on the black market – often directly from a crate still bearing a UN or other insignia – have seen their popular support souring in many locales.

Allegations that the movement steals children to train as soldiers or use as human shields have also encouraged many families to flee, exacerbating the situation, and pushing the country towards more hardship and starvation. With peace talks mooted but as yet unmanifest, the conflict in Yemen looks set to drag on into 2020, meaning that the death toll among Yemen’s most vulnerable – the children – will continue to climb.

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