The Turkish, Russian and Iranian governments begged the Syrian Constitutional Committee on Thursday to seek compromise and consensus among the sides of the country’s decade-long civil war.

Following consultations on the margins of the fifth meeting of the Constitutional Committee in Geneva, the three nations produced a joint statement underlining their support for an independent, united and sovereign Syria.

According to AA, the statement specified that the body had been created by the Astana guarantor nations to support efforts for a political and peaceful solution to the conflict. It also stated that the committee should work independently from ‘foreign interference’ and aim to develop a consensus between its members to gather the broadest support among Syrians.

Peace in Syria Won’t be Easy

Furthermore, the statement concluded that the next international meeting on Syria in the Astana format will take place in Sochi on February 16-17, 2021.

Since January 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani have been working on the Astana peace process in a bid to end a war that has so far cost the lives of 10 million people, according to UN estimates.

However, peace will not be easy. 2021 is different to previous years that Constitutional Committee meetings took place because the US has a new president who will adopt his own approach toward Syria: Joe Biden. As Kerry Boyd Anderson wrote for Arab News, the Biden administration will do everything in its power to prevent the resurgence of ISIS, but it will also view the refugee crisis, regional stability, human rights, and limiting Russian and Iranian interference as vital issues in its Syria policy.

Biden’s Unclear Approach to Syria

Though Biden has said very little about his approach toward Syria, it is likely that he will exert diplomatic pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This strategy includes rebuilding coalitions to end the war and to maintain the US’s military presence to prevent ISIS from re-emerging. In 2019, the then former vice president criticized the Trump administration for withdrawing US troops from Syria.

The US President will also be far less accommodating toward Putin and Erdoğan, and the sanctions under the Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act will likely remain in place. But Biden will feel the pressure to deal with Syria far better than Barack Obama did. Yet the Biden administration faces another obstacle: how can it be tough on Iran’s continued presence in Syria when it is trying to persuade them to support the Iran Deal that Obama signed?

Also, it is unlikely that the Turkish, Iranian and Russian leaders will support a peace process that is headed by Biden. As I wrote in May last year, Putin, Rouhani and Erdoğan want to weaken Washington’s grip over the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces, and they may well break up Syria between them one day if all attempts at peace through the Constitutional Committee fail.

The Nightmarish Alternative to a Diplomatic Solution

Phylliss Bennis once wrote for TNI that the US should engage with Putin to bring about a peaceful resolution to the Syrian conflict, but considering Biden has made it clear that he views the Russian leader as ‘a thug’, and that he may well sideline the Turkish President, there are no signs of a peaceful dialog emerging so far.

For now, it is unclear whether there is an end in sight to Syria’s ten-year war; that will become more apparent when the next Astana meeting takes place in February. The only way that peace can be restored to Syria is if the four superpowers and Assad can work together to carve out a diplomatic solution, but given that Biden has aims that contradict those of his Iranian, Russian, Turkish and Syrian counterparts, an end to the war only feels like an aspiration, not a realistic goal.

L'articolo Is There an End in Sight to the Syrian Conflict? proviene da InsideOver.

Although the Islamic State’s Caliphate has been destroyed and its terrorist fighters having largely retreated underground, the group remains dangerous and ready to strike – albeit via different means.

Current Status of ISIS

ISIS was decisively defeated by an American-led international coalition, and their rein of destruction across Syria and Iraq has come to an end. The group has lost enormous financial, arms and training capability with the loss of its territory.

Many in the region who may have been inclined to join the group in earlier years had their fascination disappear with the humiliating defeat, but it is also clear that ISIS’ ability to recruit new members and organize new fighting units and battle plans has been severely degraded.

The result is a far-reaching withdrawal from both Iraq and Syria and ISIS’ loss of the ability to conduct sophisticated operations. According to reliable estimates, approximately 3,500 ISIS terrorists remain in Iraq, and a maximum of 4,000 remain in Syria.

Report: ISIS is Out of Heavy Weapons

ISIS continues to try to obtain weapons, but recently published research indicates that the organization possesses only light weapons, and has no way to obtain weapons of mass destruction. Particularly since ISIS’ financial transactions are constantly monitored and due to the subsequent loss of its financial network over the years, these acquisitions have become virtually impossible.

Its options to conduct terror attacks are also accordingly limited. Mostly they are carried out by small, mobile groups, usually no more than ten people. In addition, these attacks mainly take place in remote regions outside the cities. Usually, the focus is on fast, rather simplistic attacks.

Make No Mistake: ISIS is Still a Threat

Nevertheless, there is no reason to give the all-clear on the threat posed by ISIS. For example, elsewhere, in Europe, ISIS remains active. It has just changed its tactics.

Even in Europe, the organization is no longer capable of large-scale operations, nor can it rely on trusted members trained in the military with substantial combat experience. However, smaller attacks by individual perpetrators, such as recently in Vienna or Nice, are unfortunately still possible and even likely.

ISIS also uses these actions to show that it is still present and that it can still strike. In doing so, it is explicitly looking for new motives for mobilization and provocation that will bring in recruits, for example, the discussion about the Mohammed caricatures that led to protests and controversy in France after a school teacher was beheaded for displaying the cartoons as part of a class debate on free speech.

The ISIS Recruitment Pipeline

Often, no particular effort is required for recruiting new fighters other than a few “inspiring” videos for future terrorists. This cyber recruitment is even more practicable and often more effective than the work of extremist Qur’anic academies schools or extremist groups that are formed around a few mosques and run by like-minded preachers. This form of onlie radicalization often goes unnoticed.

In addition, ISIS is now growing its presence in Africa. In West and North Africa in particular, ISIS is currently strengthening its capabilities. Above all, tge group is making use of the chaos in Libya to grow its numbers and strategic strength. In addition to ideological mobilization, ISIS is primarily concerned with expanding smuggling routes to sub-Saharan Africa.

Although al-Qaeda currently has a more significant influence in the region, it can be assumed that ISIS’ activities in West Africa will increase despite the efforts made to counter them, and that ISIS will remain a credible threat in and outside Europe for the foreseeable future.

L'articolo ISIS Has Lost Most of its Territory But the Terrorist Group is Still a Threat proviene da InsideOver.

Christmas is an opportunity to reflect upon how fortunate many of us are to spend time with loved ones, particularly after a devastating year like 2020.

But for many Christians around the world the holiday season offers no respite from suffering and persecution.

Christians are Suffering around the World

Many Christian families in Aleppo have suffered since the Syrian civil war started in 2011. Furthermore, the coronavirus pandemic has made things worse for them in many ways, because those who have needed urgent hospital treatment have been left at a particular disadvantage due to the unsuitability of many hospital beds badly damaged by the conflict.

In the city, large numbers of Christians live in extreme poverty. Because of Syria’s circumstances, many have lost their jobs and their survival becomes increasingly difficult each day.

The Church of Aleppo, which has been on the front-line since the beginning of the war, has informed the Catholic foundation Aiuto alla chiesa che soffre (Aid to the Church in Need) that supports Christians wherever they are persecuted, oppressed or in need, that 6,190 Christian families with children and the elderly are in need of help. They are working hard to provide these families with a new emergency initiative that will help them with food and medicines.

Aiuto alla chiesa che soffre is also aiming to help the diocese of Maiduguri in Nigeria, which includes the city of Baga in the Nigerian state of Borno. The area was previously invaded by the violent Islamic extremist group Boko Haram. The invasion caused 8,000 women to become widows. The Catholic foundation aims to build a center designed to allow Christians who have been sexually abused by Boko Haram terrorists, as well as countless widows, to be adequately assisted by a team of experts.

China and Pakistan are ‘Countries of Particular Concern’ for Christians

Nigeria and Syria are not the only countries where Christians are suffering. The US again recently designated Pakistan and China as “countries of particular concern” for their “systemic and egregious violations of religious freedom.” The Trump Administration further noted that these nations’ treatment of Christians and other religious minorities “could lead to the imposition of certain sanctions against them.”

In particular, this is because China authorized the formation of the “Administrative Measures for Religious Groups” in February this year. The laws aim to strengthen the Chinese Government’s resolve against unregistered church gatherings, stipulating stiff fines for participants, and those who host such activities. According to Christianity Today, many Chinese Christians would agree that restrictions on religious freedom are increasing in Xi Jinping’s China.

Furthermore, Pakistan also has many anti-Ahmadiyya laws and enforces the culture of impunity for violence against religious minorities including Christians, leading to a culture of false accusations against Christians of blasphemy and religious-fueled violence.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also added Eritrea, Iran, Nigeria, Myanmar, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan to the list of nations that are currently violating the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998.

Some Areas are Getting Better for Christians

Despite this, some Christians are experiencing positive changes across the world. In the Central African Republic, Bambari’s Kidjigira market remained a no man’s land separating the Muslim and Christian districts of Bambari. However, since 2017, international donors and humanitarian agencies have helped transform the town into a place where people of all faiths could come together.

Iraq has experienced an exodus of Christians in recent years, and Pope Francis’ visit in March 2021 is being viewed as an opportunity to support all Iraqis. Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement: “It also represents a message of peace to Iraq and to the region as a whole.” The Pope has long sought a trip to Iraq and told a meeting of Catholic aid agencies last year that he wanted to travel there in 2020.

As Christmas approaches around the corner, it is important to remember that the festive season celebrates the birth of Jesus Christ, who founded the Christian religion. There will be no opportunity for many Christians around the world to celebrate this occasion in a safe and secure environment.

We can only hope that their fortunes change soon.

L'articolo Special Report: Violence Against Christians Around the World proviene da InsideOver.

Preparations for this year’s Christmas are underway in many Syrian cities especially in the capital Damascus and the country’s second largest city and economic capital Aleppo.

Despite ten years of war and an ongoing spike in the Covid-19 pandemic that has claimed the lives of dozens of the nation’s doctors among over 900 fatalities so far, the Christmas spirit is alive and well. Christians are a major native component of Syria’s authentic social fabric and are important guardians of Syria’s national identity as well as the Arabic language and literature alike.

Christmas in Syria

Many streets of mainly Christian-populated quarters have already displayed their colorful house decorations, and sparkling Christmas trees can be seen in major squares, churches as well as the majority of hotels across Syrian cities, towns and villages.

Christmas rituals across a land widely considered to be the cradle of Christianity, are not that different from those across much of world. Eastern Christians fast by avoiding meat, dairy products, fish and eggs.

A good chunk of Syrians attend religious services on Christmas Eve and Church bells ring out sending messages of hope and peace as many none Christian Syrian join the festivities and prayers for salvation in the war-fatigued nation. Christmas Day is celebrated with family members and friendly gatherings, exchanging visits and a festive dinner featuring the country’s delicious cuisine.

Christians Have Been Targeted in Syria’s War

Syrian Christians have been systematically targeted by radical Islamists over the first few years of the conflict, particularly in the northeastern parts of the country where a systematic ethnic cleansing campaign has taken place. Christians made up some 10 percent of Syria’s population of 23 million before the war and the displacement and migration of millions mainly to neighboring countries and in lesser numbers to Europe and Scandinavia. Most are Eastern Orthodox Christians whose traditions of worship were developed in the Middle East, north Africa and eastern Europe.

Syria also boasts a vast array of denominations of the Church including the Syrian, Greek, Armenian Orthodox, Maronite (originated in Brad near Aleppo), the Assyrian (or Nestorian) Church and the Melchite (or Greek Catholic) Church. Many churches and monasteries, including one of the holiest and oldest in the world such as the Covent of Our Lady in Sednaya near Damascus were destroyed, plundered and severely damaged by Islamist jihadists and terrorist groups during the first five years of the war in Syria, before they were liberated by the Syrian army, and largely restored later on by the government and generous donations from Syrian Christian expats worldwide.

Syria’s Christians Have Deeply-Rooted Traditions

The majority of Eastern Christians fast for some or all of the Advent, a period of spiritual preparation for the coming of Christ at Christmas time, which has been traditionally jointly celebrated by a large number of none Christian Syrians every year. It is extremely common here to see decorated Christmas trees at Christian homes and enterprises. Thankfully, the conflict spanning over 10 bloody and desperate years has failed to seriously undermine the stubborn fabric of coexistence and its deeply-rooted traditions which have survived for centuries. Muslim, Christians and in some cases Syrian Jews have lived peacefully as neighbors for ages especially in certain quarters of the capital Damascus and Aleppo and majority Christian Tartous, Homs and Hama’s surrounding rural areas.

Christmas celebrations in Syria were largely interrupted by the violence of the conflict which erupted in March 2011, as part of the so-called “Arab Spring ” which has brought nothing but bloodshed, destruction and chaos to many nations in the region.

Three years ago, with the demise of ISIS terrorist organization and the subsequent liberation of much of the parts  previously held by antigovernment and foreign-sponsored militias and terror groups, Syrian Christians were able to partake in Christmas celebrations again, with heartwarming singing carols and hymns returning to the churches and festivals in Damascus and much of the country, free of the fear of terror attacks that have cost Syrians of all faiths dearly.

Lights of Faith Defy Darkness of War

With Christmas trees lit up, musical bands playing in the streets of Damascus’ old town as well as many cathedrals and churches across the country, and with Santa Claus (Father Christmas) stacking up gifts and polishing up his carriage for the yearning children, Syrians hope that this year’s Christmas celebrations will help them overcome much of the agony, suffering and sadness accumulated in 10 years of war and aggravated by a mounting COVID-19 death toll in recent weeks.

Syria is the Cradle of Christianity and only place on earth where Aramaic, the language of Jesus Christ is still spoken and being taught by Christians and Muslims alike. Our nation prays that the birth anniversary of the birth of the Prince of Peace will bring with it a year of tranquility, prosperity and above all the peace this nation badly needs more than ever.

L'articolo How are Syrians Gearing up for Christmas After 10 Years of War? proviene da InsideOver.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has appointed Faisal Mekded as his country’s new Foreign Minister, replacing Walid al-Moallem who died almost a week ago, according to Al-Jazeera. 

Mekded has some big shoes to fill as al-Moallem was an adept and stalwart supporter of Assad’s regime. The former foreign minister held his job throughout the last decade, and survived several reshuffles before he died at the age of 79.

The Syrian Government did not specify the cause of al-Moallem’s death, but his health was understood to have been deteriorating for some time.

Mekded is an Experienced Politician

The 66-year-old Mekded also possesses significant political experience. He started his career at the Syrian Foreign Ministry in 1994 and has been deputy foreign minister since 2006.

He shadowed Moallem at most conferences and meetings, and stepped in to make statements when the latter’s health began to deteriorate.

Syria’s new Foreign Minister has an enormous task ahead of him regarding improving his country’s stature in the world. The Syrian Government remains isolated internationally, despite recent attempts to normalize ties with Gulf countries.

Yet the good news for Mekded is that both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain rebuilt their relationships with Syria while Moallem served as the nation’s foreign minister. The UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2018, followed by Bahrain.

Cooperative Opportunities Abound for Mekded

In March, the Syrian President and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan spoke on the phone in March for the first time since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.

As Daniel L. Byman argues for the Brookings Institute, the likelihood is that Syria will remain weak in the near- and mid-term, and probably for another decade. The country is exhausted by civil war and riven by ethnic and communal divisions, its military is paralyzed, and domestic stability will remain the dominant military concern.

The Assad regime does not control the entire country due to interference from foreign powers such as Russia and Iran. These rival states could support warlords or rebel groups against the government to prolong the civil war.

If Mekded is serious about improving Syria’s presence on the regional stage, he should look beyond depending upon Iran for stability. The new Foreign Minister can achieve this aim by uniting Sunnis, Alawites, and others under a common banner: the desire to gradually reduce Tehran’s influence and increase Syria’s self-sufficiency.

Other nations such as Egypt and the UAE may look to strengthen their relationship with Syria as well if Mekded manages to achieve this aim.

Mekded is Unlikely to Improve Syria’s International Reputation

Neighboring states like Jordan fear continued instability in Syria, and Germany’s politicians are facing domestic pressure due to the presence of Syrian refugees in their country. Mekded could bring up the refugee crisis in negotiations, demanding more aid for them should they return, and also pressure for humane treatment for any who return.

Despite this, none of these developments would return Syria to its pre-war status, but they would allow Damascus to increase its autonomy should Mekded choose to adopt these ideas.

Mekded’s Likely Trajectory Going Forward: More of the Same

But considering Mekded has served as Moallem’s deputy for the last decade, the reality is that he will continue with the latter’s legacy. During an interview with the RIA Novosti state news agency in 2018, Mekded revealed that he did not believe that both Russia and Iran were violating Syria’s sovereignty, and that he wanted nations which are opposed to terrorism to remain in the country. Syrian citizens should therefore expect more of the same from their new Foreign Minister.

A new ministerial appointment is always an opportunity for a preexisting government to change its approach to a specific policy, but given Mekded’s track record and loyalty to Moallem and his policies in office, he will probably do nothing to improve Syria’s position on the global stage.

Nonetheless, there are many opportunities Syria can take advantage of, and time will tell whether the new Foreign Minister will exploit them.

L'articolo What Impact Will Syria’s New Foreign Minister Have? proviene da InsideOver.

There have been mixed feelings and reactions and across much of the Middle East, both during the US presidential elections last week and more so following its outcome, depending on which side of the fence you stand.

Varying Reactions to Biden’s Win

For some regional leaders, the news that Republican President Donald Trump had lost to Democratic Party rival and former Vice President Joe Biden came as a nightmarish shock.

For others in the region, however, there was jubilation and relief, similar to that witnessed in some EU countries. There was euphoria that the tumultuous Trump era as American president is now virtually over, despite the prevailing sense that the remaining 70 odd lame duck days until Biden’s official White House inauguration will not pass without some rough rides and potential turmoil from the Trump camp.

The mere fact that days of the fickle, pernicious, precariously dangerous and unpredictable Trump decisions and foreign policies are now numbered, were met with a feeling of relief in many circles, and gave many of those who look forward to a more rational, even-handed and realistic American approach to one of the most vital and volatile regions on the planet, a cause for celebration.

Although the majority of the region’s intellectual class, for example in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, appear quite convinced that all US presidents – regardless of being Republican or Democrat – are no more than “two sides of the same coin;” many see the bipartisan system as a mere political front entrusted to execute the policies devised by the so-called “Deep State.”

GOP leaders and activists have pledged to file lawsuits and challenge the outcome of what they call the “stolen election,” vowing not to concede power to Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris, the first ever lady to occupy this post.

Will US Positions in the Middle East and North Africa Change Under Biden?

Syria, Iran, Libya and Yemen were among the countries worst-hit by American foreign policy in the region under Trump. Lebanon and Iraq were not much luckier though, with Lebanon suffering its worst economic and political crisis since the end of its Civil War in 1990. The almost nonstop daily meddling in Lebanon’s political life by the US ambassador in Beirut Dorothy C. Shea further complicated the situation and deepened the ongoing sectarian and ethnic rifts there. Many Lebanese have protested the ambassador’s flagrant interference, with some calling upon their government to expel the ambassador and officially brand her a persona non grata.

Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports have indicated that Biden’s intends to work on putting an end to the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Libya, and to pressurize Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to stop their catastrophic war of aggression on Yemen. The campaign in Yemen has failed to achieve any real goals over the past five years apart from destroying much of the impoverished country and creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history.

Past presidential candidate and prominent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont – who will reportedly be tapped to hold a key post in Biden’s government – was quoted this week as saying: “Yemen does not need US bombs and rockets; it needs our help and aid instead”.

In Egypt – whose president General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi brags about his decades-old friendship with Trump – it was reported that leaders of the fundamentalist organisation the Muslim Brotherhood – labeled a “terrorist” group in many countries, most recently by Saudi Arabia – were elated by Biden’s election. The Brotherhood movement issued a statement hailing the choice of the American people; some analysts see the move by this hardline Islamist group as an aspiration to the resumption of the role the organization played in the so-called Arab Spring under the nose of – and some argue in collaboration with – the Obama administration.

Erdogan and MBS Have Real Reasons to Worry About a Biden Administration

Biden, answering a question by a reporter during his election campaign whether he would punish the Saudis responsible for the brutal murder of Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, positively pledged to do exactly that. Such a statement must have sent some serious shivers down the spine of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). The most famous anonymous Saudi tweeter nicknamed Mujtahid – well known for his accurate leaks from within the Royal Palace in Riyadh – tweeted a couple of days ago that:

“MBS has opened a direct hotline with Trump’s brother-in-law and right-hand man Jared Kushner and pledged to financially cover all expenses incurred by Trump’s lawyers in their desperate effort to reverse the outcome of the elections in Trump’s favor.”

With regards to Turkey, it is well known that there’s no love lost between Biden and Turkish president Recep Tayyep Erdogan. The new White House administration, many experts expect, will endeavor to put an end to Erdogan’s expansionist policy in the region and beyond. Some pundits go as far as predicting that the President Elect will seek to help bring Erdogan down in any upcoming Turkish elections, which is something Biden indicated during his election campaign.

Biden’s Geopolitical Calculus

Arab researcher at the Paris Geopolitics Academy, Faisal Jalloul believes that “Biden is likely to return to the equation that arose during Barack Obama’s second term (2012-2016), where it was agreed that Saudi Arabia and Iran would share American influence in the Middle East, just as it is the case with Ethiopia.”

“That’s why Washington agreed to sign the deal on the Iranian nuclear file. Iran, in return, had begun to help Washington withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, Whereas Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf states preferred rapprochement with Israel in exchange for isolating Iran,” Jalloul outlined.

“Therefore, the Saudis bet on Trump, who worked in a direction that favors Israel, which does not want any international and legitimate recognition of the Iranian key role in the Middle East,” Jalloul maintained in an interview with Tunisian daily le Maghreb, adding that “It is not unlikely that Biden will resume work according to that equation, particularly given the fact that the war in Yemen, which broke out on the side-lines of the Gulf-which has embarked on a process of rapprochement with Israel along with a hostile divergence with Iran, has failed to achieve its desired results, and is likely to escalate in a manner that could further weakens the Arab Gulf states, while increasing Iran’s power and regional influence.”

The Importance of Trump’s Recent Dismissal of Sec Def Mark Esper

Trump’s recent firing of Secretary of Defence Mark Esper is widely seen as a reflection of the President’s state of mind following his defeat in the election. While the move might have taken some pundits by surprise, the mere timing in itself did not shock many others. Nabih El Bourgi, one of Lebanon’s top columnists, reflected on Trump’s move, based on similar incidents and decisions made by Trump in the past:

“We know that Trump could not put up with James Mattis because whenever he entered the Oval Office, made sure the president heard him marching in(as a general). Trump could not also tolerate the other General’ Herbert McMaster, the National Security Adviser, and later General John Kelly, the Chief of Staff of the White House; they had refused to wash the dishes for Mrs. Melania”, Bourgi maintained.

“However, Mark Esper, although a professional general, was a true gentleman, not a confrontational figure. His problem was that he has refused to escalate tension with Iran to the point of launching a military strike.  Any war with it means a 100 Years’ War (Asper believes), that will be strategically manipulated by both the Russian Bear, and the Chinese Dragon, given the region’s wealth of historical and natural resources as well as strategic significance”’ Bourgi added.

Were Trump’s Collisions with Top Military Brass a Blessing in Disguise?

Many regional experts and international analysts believe that Trump’s recurrent clashes with US military commanders and intelligence chiefs over his potentially disastrous schemes as well as trigger-happy megalomaniac obsessions, could have almost certainly saved the United States another humiliating Pearl Harbor-like defeat, this time at the hands of the Iranians.

US intelligence agencies had information that Tehran had prepared a series of massive retaliatory strikes against all key American bases and assets in the Gulf region and elsewhere, and that the deadly Iranian missile attack on the US base of Ain Al Assad near Bagdad following General Qasem Suleimani’s assassination by a US drone, was a tiny sample of what was to come in case Iran was attacked. Moreover, Iran’s control over the strategic Straits of Hormuz could block some 40% of world oil supplies and seriously impact most world economies.

Middle East’s Fingers Crossed for a Post-Trump Change in US Policy

While it is too soon to anticipate with utter certainty the impact and scope of change in US policies in the Middle East following Biden’s election – and despite the turbulent ten weeks or so till the President Elect is officially sworn in as America’s 46th president – many Syrians as well as others in the region will hold their breath, keeping their fingers crossed that an overhaul of the entirety of Trump’s isolationist, antagonistic and unstable policies and decisions lies ahead. The chance that Biden and his upcoming government might cherish a peaceful and stable Middle East is still a possibility.

Trump seems to have left America with hardly any friends in the region – apart from Israel – and has helped put the whole region on a collision course with each another and with Washington. While Biden and his team have massive national challenges at home, such as the COVID-19 pandemic that has hit America extremely hard, the frozen Obama health care system known also as ACA (Affordable Care Act) and racial discrimination issues, the new White House boss cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that the US maintains troops and bases in Syria, Iraq and many other countries that could be targeted should rising regional tensions continue.

Moreover, recent religion-triggered violence in France and elsewhere – coupled with massive unrest across America regarding civil rights issues – highlights the need for more balanced and rational White House policies both internally and externally that are based on wisdom, fairness and tolerance particularly in a region that has had more than enough of wars, destruction and bloodshed.

L'articolo Implications of US Elections Outcome for Syria, Arab Countries and Middle East proviene da InsideOver.

Despite the efforts of international coalitions, ISIS is reemerging in Syria. The protests against French President Emmanuel Macron around the Muslim world are only exacerbating their progress further as the terrorists leverage religious anger at the West for propaganda value.

Macron’s Fight Against Islamism

The situation continues to be highly volatile in the Arab world and throughout the Middle East. After the egregious murder of a French teacher for showing a cartoon of the Prophet Muhammad in class, Macron pledged to fight Islamism harder than ever before. It did not surprise that he demonstratively said the Mohammed cartoons are under the protection of freedom of expression, one of the core Western values.

The reactions across the Muslim world were furious, and there were mass demonstrations around the world.

In Syria, local Muslims organized an anti-Macron demonstration in Sari Kani (Ras al-Ain), a city currently controlled by Turkey-backed jihadists, and flags similar to that of ISIS were reportedly present.

It is not a coincidence. ISIS is using the outrage of the Muslim world to reposition itself and is – in Syria – met with partial approval, it appears.

Radical Islamists Still Have Significant Footholds in Syria

Even in the last rebel stronghold, Idlib, anger is boiling up. The province in northeast Syria is also under the control of Radical Islamists.

Syrian Kurds rose against Syrian leader Bashar al Assad here in 2011. A year later, they fought back the Islamists of the Nusra Front. Years in Kurdish self-government followed. However, at the end of 2019 – and after the US withdrawal under President Donald Trump, Turkish troops invaded the small town with Islamist militias’ support.

By now, Turkish units have taken up positions in several observation posts in the area. Ankara military vehicles patrol the province, keeping Assad’s troops at bay. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds a protective hand over Idlib. Otherwise, the Islamists would have no chance against the Syrian and Russian overwhelming power.

Erdogan’s Encouragement of Militant Islam

The Islamists have long since gained a foothold in the Turkish-occupied border strip between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain in northeast Syria. Most of the Kurdish residents have fled. Instead, Arab Sunnis from Eastern Ghouta, Deir Ezzour, and Aleppo now live here. Erdogan settled them here: a population exchange at the expense of the Kurds.

The result is an Islamist militia Jaish al-Islam which maintains approximately 1,000 fighters in Ras al-Ain alone.

Moreover, four other extremist groups and thus the perfect breeding ground for ISIS are rising in other areas such as Raqqa. Some analysts report that these developments are all with Turkey’s approval.

ISIS Cells are Attacking Once Again

Thus, it is not a surprise that ISIS cells are again carrying out attacks in other regions of Syria, often from ambush. Hardly a day goes by without a new attack.

It is not easy to estimate how many followers ISIS still has in this region. With targeted needle pricks, they seek to spread fear and terror, no longer just in the desert between Iraq and Syria, but also along the Euphrates River in the area of ​​Kurdish self-government.

Many ISIS supporters who were held in Kurdish prisons or camps were able to flee or were released because the self-government was hopelessly overwhelmed with their care. They are now gaining a foothold in the region again.

A study by the Center for Global Policy in Washington displays the impact the terrorists have had. Until April, ISIS carried out an attack every three days.

Funding is Still Flowing to ISIS

Moreover, money is not an issue for the terrorists. Large parts of its finances were saved when the so-called calipate collapsed.

Money is also used to attract recruits who want to fight for ISIS. However, ISIS terrorists also enforce “Islamic State” laws in the region again. For example, business owners in Kurdish cities are told not to employ women. Any business violating the rule can expect a swift attack.

The comeback of the terrorists in Syria has already happened and is increasing. It does not bode well for the region or the world.

L'articolo ISIS is Making a Comeback in Syria proviene da InsideOver.

The Syrian Kurds have begun the release process for approximately 15,000 Islamic State family members from the notorious al-Hawl internment camp on the border with Iraq. The Kurds have long complained about an utter lack of European support and their inability to permanently guard the many prisoners at the camp.

The Kurdish administration has issued an amnesty for Syrian inmates in the al-Hawl camp and has begun their release. In al-Hawl, it is mainly women and children of ISIS terrorists who are held in captivity.

Kurdish Authorities: West Has ‘Total Disinterest’ in Helping With the Situation

The Kurdish authorities in northeast Syria accuse Western states of leaving them alone with the problem of IS prisoners. In the European countries, in particular, there is “a total disinterest.”

As an ally of the USA, the Syrian Democratic Armed Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-dominated militia alliance, have provided ground troops in the war against the Islamic State in recent years. After the jihadists’ military defeat in spring 2019, tens of thousands of ISIS members and their families were taken prisoner.

SDF troops are currently guarding around 11,000 ISIS fighters in around half a dozen camps in the Kurdish autonomous region in northeast Syria, including around 2,000 foreigners and tens of thousands of women and children.

The largest camp is al-Hawl. About 65,000 people are detained there. In addition to the approximately 25,000 Syrian inmates, around 31,000 Iraqi IS members and 9,000 prisoners from other countries are detained.

Why are the Kurds Releasing the ISIS Family Members?

The release aims to relive the administration of pressure and an improvement of the situation in al-Hawl.IS supporters are said to have led a regiment of terror in prison. The facilitation of “IS-related structures” in the camp became known in July. Children and young people would be indoctrinated and radicalized with the ISIS ideology. Inmates have tried to escape and attacked the guards several times.

Syrian women and children are now set to be released, and they could soon return to villages and towns in the northeast of the country. Syrian inmates in al-Hawl who seek to return home can register for the release and are then brought to their home region.

First Group of Prisoners Heads Home

The first group of almost 290 people left the camp two weeks ago and returned to the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor. Repatriation of camp inmates in Syrian areas, which are under the control of the government of President Bashar al Assad, is being worked on.

Turkey also captured ISIS fighters in northeast Syria. The Turkish army marched into the region a year ago in order to occupy the Kurdish autonomous region. Ankara then sent around 20 German Islamic State fighters who had been captured by Turkey back to Berlin. Extremists from other European countries were also deported to their home countries.

However, the majority of foreign and Syrian ISIS prisoners remained in camps under the care of the Kurdish national authorities.

What About Repatriating Foreign Fighters?

Elhalm Ahmad, head of the SDF’s political wing, has now announced talks with the home countries of foreign extremists who are in prison camps. The return of foreigners to Europe and other countries is difficult. The Kurdish autonomy authorities accuse Germany and other western states of rejecting to take back their citizens on the one hand, but on the other hand, blaming the Kurds for the poor conditions in the Syrian internment camps.

In fact, only Washington provided the Kurds with medical supplies worth $1.2 million in the spring to prevent the coronavirus outbreak in the northeast Syrian camps.

Germany and other countries did not provide any support, confirming the Kurdish criticism of Europe on this matter.

L'articolo 15,000 ISIS Family Members to be Released proviene da InsideOver.

The Kremlin reaffirmed its vow to support Syria after President Bashar al-Assad requested economic help last week. Assad’s regime has faced a number of challenges over the past decade, including a civil war, ISIS, and allegations of crimes against humanity.

Putin and Assad Inseparable

Economically, individual Syrian individuals and businesses have been targeted by US sanctions since the administration of US President George W. Bush. President Barack Obama issued an executive order barring US citizens from doing business with the Syrian government in addition to embargoing oil imports. 

President Donald Trump doubled-down on the hard-line approach to Syria, citing human rights abuses. Much like the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran, the US may sanction any individual, anywhere in the world for conducting business deals with Assad.

The harshness and lengthiness of US sanctions, taken in tandem with civil unrest and terrorism, have decimated the Syrian economy. Consequently, Assad has few options for relief, if he wants to maintain his power (Washington has conditioned the lifting of sanctions on Assad stepping down). 

Deal Coming in December

Moscow is without question Damascus’ largest benefactor, and despite Putin facing his on challenges at home and abroad, the Kremlin is unlikely to waver in its support for Assad anytime soon.

“We are expecting to sign a pact in December, during my next visit to Syria’s capital, that would outline a new framework for trade and economic ties between the two countries for the coming years,” said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov during a joint news conference with his Syrian counterpart in Damascus.

The two allies condemned the latest US sanctions on Syria while maintaining that buttressing their alliance will allow them to overcome the disastrous economic effects, CBS News reported. With his nation’s economy down 80 percent since the Syrian Civil War, Assad has stooped to publicly begging Putin for help.

“The government was determined to continue to work with Russian allies to implement signed agreements and to ensure the success of Russian investments in Syria,” Assad said.

An agreement is expected to be finalized in December, a development that will solidify Russia’s continued stake in Syria’s—and by extension, Assad’s—fate. Although Moscow began forging its relationship with Damascus decades ago, the connection has become all the more vital for the Kremlin in recent years.

Projecting Power

Putin has made it his business over the past decade to revive the Soviet Union, at least in spirit if not in territorial strength. He’s targeted former bloc states, such as Ukraine and Georgia. What he can’t take outright, he subjects to mixes of soft and hard power campaigns to weaken and, inevitably, dominate.

The Middle East is simply an extension of Putin’s plan to extend his power beyond Russia’s borders. Russia was already emboldened to act without concern for consequences during the Obama presidency, but Trump has given Putin a blank cheque to run wild, particularly in Syria. 

After Trump hastily agreed to Turkey’s demands to withdraw from Northern Syria, the American leader instantly forfeit the territory and any hope of gaining leverage over Assad, to Putin. As Dmitriy Frolovskiy wrote in February 2019 for Foreign Policy, “Russia received the best possible gift from the Trump administration right before Christmas (2018).” 

The Tartus Port

As the US retreated from the world stage, other states such as France and Russia saw an opening to fill the power vacuum left behind. Although Putin would undoubtedly love the opportunity to annex more land, Middle Eastern states have proven notoriously hard to control, particularly for Russia (or the USSR, rather). No, Putin’s goal with Syria lies in bolstering the Russian military’s power to project itself throughout the region.

It’s naval base in Tartus, Syria, is it’s only foreign base from which to launch naval operations. It’s not new either, having existed since 1971, but Assad was the Syrian leader who turned it into a permanent Russian fixture on the Mediterranean. The area is prime real estate as it is located near the most economically valuable shipping lanes in the world: the Suez Canal. 

Russia also operates an air base in Hmeimim, Syria. The Kremlin recently dedicated $500 million to improve its Tartus port, as Reuters reported, and received more land for its air base in a deal cut with Assad, according to The Arab Weekly.

In purely military terms, Syria represents the maturing of Russia’s comparatively limited military projection ambitions. Of course there are economic interests as well, such as Russian oil companies that have invested in Syrian operations, but those take a backseat to Putin’s power grab.

With the US mostly gone from Syria, Russia only has to compete with Turkey and Iran for influence over Assad, but neither of those states are in a dominant position like Russia. Syria is confirmation that Putin has revitalized Russia has a global power broker and the Russian leader, having secured a virtually limitless presidency, will put that political capital to work in other regions of the world as long as he is left unchallenged by the West.

L'articolo Russia Responds to Syria’s Economic Plea proviene da InsideOver.

Idlib, which came to known as “the last rebel stronghold” or dubbed as “Gaza in Syria” has been under the heavy bombing of the Syrian regime and Russian forces for months now had seen better days. The central location on the ancient Silk Road that brought a privileged status and wealth in the past to the province, is a magnet for bloodshed and misery today. It became the deadlock of the 9 years old Syrian civil war. The interests of the Syrian regime, Russia, Turkey, Iran, US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, as well as the opposition – with all its variety – are all tangled and became a Gordion knot in Idlib. While a danger of a direct military clash between Ankara and Damascus or even between Ankara and Moscow is looming by day, how and by whom it is going to be cut will pretty much determine the future of the Middle East, no less.

L'articolo Everything you need to know about the Idlib tangle proviene da InsideOver.